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ridethepig | JPY beyond the elections🔸 USDJPY - into the elections Sellers have the move and already played the exchange towards 100 on the initial covid chapter I. They are aiming for the ideal Yearly closing position (the frontal attack against any laggards). I managed to carry out the deeply laid plan (a serious contender for chart of the year) at the beginning and by not being as familiar as I was with the well-known rules on Tradingview. Moreover, I know no other ending in which this precise striving of inflation is more clearly illustrated than in the diagram that follows: Inflation expectations proceed as follows: as dismal Covid data floods the wires => stimulus then becomes a big part of that story 📍 There is no amount of printing that can counter deflation. As globalisation contracts, it creates a deflationary tsunami on the underlying capital formation. We then have to factor in bottlenecks on the supply side from lockdowns, agricultural shortages and etc which create inflationary pressures. The key idea is that they can simply clear the way for the Suganomics/Abenomics with a different pair of Calvin Kleins and prevent the breakdown of 100 is truly the only way to save Japan, because the MT and LT outlooks look awful there. In the more immediate term, the second covid chapter and election protection may keep JPY in demand and lower-time frame rallies will still attract selling interest. Here tracking 105.8x as resistance for another attempt of 104.1x and 100.0x before the king starts its journey. How keenly the speculators are at outguessing the demise of Japan. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
9
ridethepig | EURUSD Strategy Notes 📌 EURUSD Market Commentary 2020.10.22 A possible reversal between sellers and buyers taking profits After Eurobonds Positional Play , buyers might consider the exchanging manoeuvre from 1.20xx a good level to take profits since these levels are dangerous waters for those wanting to add longs. However, the recapture of 1.18xx is apparent, and noteworthy of how RM accounts have driven the entire leg higher from 1.16xx. Sellers simply play a protection of resistance here at 1.185/1.186 and have a chance to win control as there will be unaware buyers still loading here at these levels thinking a blue wave is positive for markets. To the downside, a test of the 1.153x is still pending and clearly visible that it is worthy of mention. Remember, whenever retail sees that a position is not working initially, they will aim to liquidate and put the remaining capital into a better swing. Unfortunately, all too often, tactics are used to trigger the liquidation and can become very unpleasant. I mea the sort of situation we are seeing around U.S. elections is threatening for another sharp increase in volatility and we have covid to put the cherry on top.
Short
by ridethepig
11
ridethepig | AUD Market Commentary 2020.10.21🔸 AUDUSD - Market Commentary 2020.10.21 The following play is aiming for a test of 70c; after a very dovish RBA earlier in the week opening the window for negative rates, we have some more downside to play. Wellll done all those selling AUDCAD , AUDUSD and AUDCNH . Volatility is going to continue to expand as we enter into the elections which will weigh heavily on AUD and NZD to a lesser extent. The play towards 70c can be opened by a fresh zig-zag from sellers. Such a move should never be played without being aware where we are wrong and measuring with certain effectiveness the bang for our buck. The downside is made possible via USD finding a temporary bid for ultimate safe-haven flows. We must recognise the dollar as the reserve currency and give it credit where credit is due. For the technical flows, looking for an eventual test of 0.700x/0.699x while invalidation above comes with a closing basis through 0.711x. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
2
EURUSD - Election Map📅 October 18th EURUSD - Election Map Eurobonds positional play The manoeuvre chosen by Europe to consolidate the debt cannot be criticised. It was inevitable since the Maastricht Treaty that in order to keep the currency alive they would eventually need to obtain with it 'federalised debt' in order to compete in the Premier league with US and China. Once Covid forced Merkel et al to 'bend the knee', euro buyers obtained control on the break of 1.09x and played an impulsive move towards 1.20x. Of course this move was not without venom and pressed against the ECB. An impulsive move, but one with a deeper meaning. Markets and bookies have completely miss-priced (i) the odds of a dem clean sweep being +ve for risk assets and (ii) spillovers associated with further lockdowns from covid chapter II. In many ways Covid has revealed how far the West has fallen behind in some places. However, no matter how healthy or greener the grass may look on the other side to some right now, a Biden victory will still face THE SAME CHALLENGES . Dems are throwing everything into winning and forgetting that even if they inherit the office they have done so at the cost of huge promises to public sector unions and etc which is a real problem for them. Expecting EURUSD to come under a lot of stress in order to protect from increased election risk, lockdowns and contractions in globalisation / capital formations in the immediate term. For those only interested in adding longs, this 1.15/1.14 area is where we should be hell-bent on loading full sized positions. To the topside invalidation of the 'B' in this ABC corrective swing will come from a break above 1.183x. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
8
ridethepig | USDCNH Long Term Macro Playbook📍 USDCNH An interesting few days for those in Chinese rates, a 100bp move in the front end, what an express train move!! Never seen anything like this before and shows the power from vol in repo fixing. PBOC will want to keep the pressure off equities, as they have been doing for some time now and hence we can see some recycling of those longs come out and make their way into bonds. This will be their only way to defend and help keep the moves to the downside contained and measured in USDCNH. In spite of the wide consolidation in Chinese Equities lately, China will be a major winner in particular from the oil crash as they were loading on the lows. The cheaper Chinese energy bill will help offset the next 12-18 month crisis. A smart move with the Oil CNY contracts as it essentially creates another mattress on the balance sheet. Later this will be described as the 'only move' that made sense and rightly so. Of course, aggressive dollar devaluation for the medium and long term is the new and decisive playbook. Sellers are happy to have held the highs, but their remaining ammunition must now make a significant impression. Those following the details of this 3rd impulsive wave may need to pull a trick or two after such a difficult battle. In any case, a test of 6.46 will be quite heart rendering, much better a deep retracement than a shallow breakup at this point .
Short
by ridethepig
1
USD/CHF - Swiss - **GREAT OPPORTUNITY THIS WEEK**USD/CHF - Most of the majors are brewing to further movement! Technical aspects: At this current moment of time we are within the range of - Support: 0.89970 & Resistance: 0.92000 (You could play the range play until it breaks) If we break below: 0.89970 we could even formed a bear flag. However, For further development regarding CHF Pair - An Inverse H&S appears, for this current moment of time it looks like it is creating the right shoulder but we must keep in mind the 50 EMA. For further bullish momentum and confirmation, above 50 EMA and above 0.92550 area whilst measuring the length of inverse H&S - we read the target of next resistance area which matches perfectly with a Fib retracement area + trendline down = 0.93300 area. (Keep in mind - this will be a counter trend move - risk management is key). Fundamental aspects regarding Dollar: The FX markets has been guided by rallying equities and precious metals but now the equity market lacks the bullish momentum (I've posted my analysis regarding SPX - Please go look for further information regarding equities) and weeks ago as the Fed has lowered expectations for now. For that reason I could see SHORT TERM bullish USD. Now, I don't think we will see any stimulus until near elections and key questions is - Has the Feds created a Bubble and has it lost its bullets...YET?! Fundamentals Calendar this week 21st Sept - 25th: Fed Powell will be speaking and testifying Monday to Thursday. Be careful whilst trading. Remember: Just a trade idea, not a recommendation. Have an excellent week ahead. All the best, Trade Journal
by Trade_Journal
ridethepig | USDCAD Market Commentary 2020.09.28Flows are starting to become more mixed as we reach the final few sessions in the Quarter. The structural decline of the dollar remains but we have some room for tactical longs in USDCAD. This is emphasised by the fact that the DXY still has a final manoeuvre to make before we step down one more time: In the short term it is buyers move to make, they have put their cards face up and with enormous effect a squeeze of the highs will make things a lot easier to play in the MT and LT decline: In a nutshell.... Continue to look for longs in USDCAD over the coming days for a test of 1.350x. Before positioning for a swing down for later in the year.
Long
by ridethepig
2
GOLD 1D - info !!!-> What has happened? -Technology stocks, which are popular this year, have been up for a second week, but other key stock indices have remained resilient, with a weak dollar indicating that investors have confidence in the next rally. All of this suddenly collapsed yesterday, when European indices fell and the US dollar rose sharply, causing commodity prices to fall from gold to oil. === -> What are the reasons? the following reasons were key: - Technology stocks are extremely expensive - many ratios are approaching highs from the dot-com bubble - The offer of new Tesla shares indicated that these technology shares may be overvalued - European coronavirus statistics are deteriorating - new restrictions are being introduced - New reports have shown that large banks around the world have contributed to money laundering - The USD was exceptionally oversold by speculators (according to CFTC reports), with negative news closing some of these positions, triggering the sale of gold and silver === -> What's next? -This has been the sharpest correction since at least June and in some markets since March. At this point, this could only be seen as a cooling off of over-optimism, but a more pronounced decline cannot be ruled out. === -> Analysis: The price of gold broke the main 75-day moving average, which supported the rising trend. The point of support is not so clear now. The most likely point is the August 12 intraday low of $ 1,865, just above the 150-day moving average. Gold trades close to the $ 1,900 ounce level. Recently, gold has left the triangular formation. We see further support near the level from August 12 . However, the size of the March correction suggests that the price could fall to as much as $ 1,700 an ounce in the event of panic. However, such a decline could only come with a significant strengthening of the USD . ->Gold: - The recent declines are primarily the strengthening of the US dollar - The positions of large gold traders are not reduced as significantly as in February and March. ETFs are still buying funds - Recent history shows that during sales, gold may fall as the USD strengthens. In the long run, however, there is still a chance of continued profits - From a technical point of view, the market is settling from the breakthrough of the triangular formation.However, we expect more significant declines in gold only if the markets enter a "panic" mode. - History shows that corrections within the bull market are not exceptional. - The development of the positions of large traders and the purchases of ETF funds show that the market is not yet as frightened as in March. On the other hand, it will depend very much on the movements of the US dollar. -> If you have any questions or concerns, feel free to comment in the comments section. If you like my idea you can support it with like. -This is not financial advice. Trade safe!
TVC:GOLDShort
by erikpolakk
3
ridethepig | Dollar Strategy Note📌 A good time to review and update our main battleground Another moment here which is going to force decision, buyers are needing to complete at a minimum their ABC targets while the extension targets still remain locked. While the other side of the coin comes from those looking to play the long term structural decline in the dollar, and sellers are flirting to react sharply at the highs in the range with a plan to defend resistance. How did we end up here ❓ It boils down to this long-term macro chart which looked very promising for sellers: Medium term : The further we zoom in, the more details we can add... To add more context, since 2018, we have been tracking the highs in dollar and we shall have to content ourselves with the "throwback" chart which briefly explains the truth behind the technical opening and structural decline. What does this all mean ❓ We are trading inside an impulsive macro leg to the downside with MT and LT targets in the DXY located at 88.2x and 74.8x respectively. This does not rule out a pullbacks/retracement, and it would be perfectly valid for buyers to break the chop to the topside only to receive another hammer later in the year / early 2021. A continuation of dollar strength and breakout of the range would put pressure on the soft hand sellers that are unaware of the larger forces in play, capital flows are not linear in direction. From a technical perspective we can play the breakup with a momentum gambit, taking 94 will open 94.6x and 94.8x for a quick visit. Anything else beyond that is currently locked for buyers. If you are a seller here you are looking to sell as cheaply as possible and fading a break of 94 handle is in play. Thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:DXY
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | USDCHF Market Commentary 2020.09.16A nice ST reversal swing setup forming here that will be easy to defend for sellers. Naturally here in the middle of the range is surrounded in chop, but there is still hope. The technical range in USD is clearly defined after the swing down. We have strong resistance at 0.92 which is a cheap sell on rallies, with 0.90 acting as soft support and another test would be fatal in opening up the downside. Unless there is a huge surprise today with Fed we can move up to squeeze the dollar bears in the short-term and trigger enough energy for the next impulsive swing down in DXY. 📌 See the macro USD annotation. Here we are dealing with an admittedly somewhat unusual example of artificial dollar devaluation as the WH / FED (same thing nowadays) are faced with a choice between a weaker currency and a weaker stock market. The ebb and flow lower in DXY will not be without pullbacks, know when to attack accordingly. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
8
ridethepig | USDCNH Market Commentary 2020.09.22It is a well known phenomenon that the darling of 2020 has been the Yuan. An important difference operationally for China has allowed the sharp speculators to ride the flows in the endgame of an economic cycle. We must first take a look at the outpost we spotted earlier in the year, the start of sellers activity. There are signs of some short-term dollar strength via risk which means the flows are becoming less simplistic in nature and will start to aggressively shake out the late retailers with awful entries. The continuation from this position is also down to Fed. As US continue to print and finally artificially devalue the dollar we must also track the speed of which inflation returns. Those who believe in 2% inflation making a return will be tracking the supply side chains, rather than the demand side. Less tech advancements, a pullback in globalisation and increased government intervention are bearish for US and Chinese Equities.
Short
by ridethepig
3
USDCHF Macro outlook 2020.09.19USDCHF has been trading in a range between 0.9200 and 0.9000 since late July. when it retests the top of its range at 0.9200. Elsewhere, they are confident the pair will eventually break through 0.9000. The most important even of the day is the Fed’s report today. It definitely will add fresh volatility to the market. in particular, await the Fed to deliver the dovish statement with economic guidelines up to 2023. The central bank may leave rates at low levels during this period. Even though the recent US data comes better than expected, Fed’s chairman Jerome Powell should stay uncertain and pessimistic over the recovery. As a result, the US dollar may plummet amid the Fed’s pressure as well as USD/CHF. Let’s look at the 4-hour USD/CHF chart. If the pair test the Resistance of 0.91xx, it may fall deeper to the low of September 1 at 0.9010. In the opposite scenario, if the price manages to cross the high of September 10 at 0.917x-0.918xx , the way towards the next resistance of 0.92xx will be clear. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by Ridethemacro
RidetheMacro| DOW Jones📌 Wall Street closed deeply in the red on Friday and the S&P and Nasdaq linked a third weekly decline, as sharp losses in the tech sector continued. Shares of Big Tech dropped steeply led by Apple (-3.2%), Amazon (-1.8%), and Microsoft (-1.2%). On the earnings side, US Steel rallied 9% after the company reported a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss. On the policy front, Democrats and Republicans are still far from a deal on the coronavirus aid follow-on bill to the previous $2 trillion package. The Dow Jones lost 245 points or 0.9% to 27,657. 🏴󠁳󠁣󠀰󠀱󠁿 the loss of the technical structure seeks compensation. Still Need a Clear Break of Trend Area also MA death cross help to give a clear view to add shorts with Confidence. ⚡ U.S.-China tensions simmer Tensions between China and the U.S. also dampened sentiment on Friday after the U.S. government said it will block all TikTok and WeChat downloads in the country on Sunday. Oracle, which is trying to take a minority stake in TikTok-parent ByteDance, fell 0.7%. Major Technical Areas to watch. Risky for longs above 27,35x Risk for shorts above 28,25x Like, subscribe and leave your comments below! 🤝 Until next time, Ride the macro
UShort
by Ridethemacro
ridethepig | USDJPY Market Commentary 2020.09.12📍 JPY Buyers are threatening to breakout. After 107 comes 110 and then 112.x. But sellers have other trump cards, for example covid. My impression is as follows: as the dollar firms and finds a temporary floor therefore can be considered a bounce into the elections which can be somewhat double-edged. If the preconditions are met, namely if we get a continuation of Abenomics with the leadership elections, and effective parries into the Yen are restrained, then beginning the advance towards 150 may be justified. But we should consider the development here to be EARLY/OPENING game. In light of this, we should take longs on a leash and if the market starts paying we can add more size. The technical breakout would lead to buyers occupying the flows. Equities may felt even more the heat if we see a paralysing effect via temporary USD inflows. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | EuroThe ECB as a weakness Two possibilities exist for the terrain ahead, one for the continuation or one for the breakdown. This very much amusing position from a markets perspective stems from the initial Eurobonds positional play. The position is reached as a touchstone for the fact in the thesis. We have already covered the macro and explained the fundamentals in play so we shall now cover that here today. Instead we shall consider the bear case and understand the conditions in play, namely: (a) the presence of a breakdown (b) a monetary vocal defence from Lagarde which could be directly attacked as weakness in the currency Our swings so far have played out favourably. Although this time the decision is more challenging, the weaknesses Lagarde sent has opened up the downside and sellers can now threaten a retest of support levels at 1.15 - 1.14. Just a threat, the diagonal support breach is toying with the idea and it is quite understandable, indeed the dollar has come along way in such a short period of time and the risks are no longer idiosyncratic to the US as cases sky rocket in Europe. Buyers have shown up but for the time being I am going to bring things closer to home and pull back on the bullish euro view. We are at the edge of the board and a continuation although is technically in play towards 1.225x - 1.250x it will be hard to manoeuvre with a round of risk-off. Combining a pullback and leveraging continuation at 1.14 / 1.15 would be the winning move. Consider selling a breakdown next week or trailing longs very aggressively. Logical analysis concludes that a pullback is in play as there is definitive weakness on the monetary side in Europe. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
7
EURUSD before FOMC!If you have active positions, close them! If you don't have one, don't open it! This applies to anyone who does not want to take the risk of being active during the news. The Fed's decision on the interest rate will be announced today, and it is expected to give direction to the USD before the November elections. We expect this to cause serious movements, so if you are not convinced of the trade you have, you better wait. What will be the direction? - Probably only Jerome Powell has a clear answer to this question :) What we want to see is where the movement will go and in which direction it will break. Be especially careful here for fake movements! Then we will get involved in trades. Still, our main scenario today is to see a decline and pressure to 1.1709 Good luck and don't forget to like and comment!
Short
by ForexTrendline
11
ridethepig | S&P📍 S&P This illustrates the total downside unlocked in S&P in the 5-3-5 sequence, but also note how unlike the Down the lows are set to hold. An innovation play. Tech avoids the development of destruction because 2,368 looks pinned and unavoidable for a test. As you can see the small caps => mid caps => large caps as usual in the end game flows. Dow: Russell: It is very much the same flow across the moves, the exchange of risk. We have already discussed the fundamentals in play for US Equities, we will need to start building an archive thread while helps keep track... more details on this coming soon. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | TRYBuyers have made the transition towards capitulation. This leaves Turkey with a huge problem, and the process of the cleanse in local banks will continue. CBRT will defend with its 'customary inventiveness' very soon as they keep a stern eye on 7.8xx. It is an unfortunate position that Turkey are in. We have exploited it for some time and as soon as the banking collapse makes it way onto Bloomberg and etc it's time to start looking at closing out. Well done all those who sent their troops to the buy side, a massive +30% swing so far and counting. After the break through 6.78 it has continued to grind its way to the wearisome target. This is the real point in the manoeuvre, which forces us to stay alert and protect profits as we approach the final targets in the unstoppable macro advance. A superb live example. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
11