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ridethepig | AUD Market Commentary 2019.12.17A good time to update the AUD chart-pack after the updates from a dovish RBA. Soft on wages and consumption with emphasis on outlook reassessment in Feb. Unless we see the domestic story pickup dramatically in Australia it will continue to keep AUD stuck in low gear. Support is found here at 0.685x and sizes I’m seeing should be enough to carry us towards the widely tracked 0.695x target: Buying dips makes sense... Bulls in full control: Macro Chart suggests a lot of upside for AUD: NZD dips are also starting to look more attractive: Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc. Good luck all those buying dips in AUD.
Long
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | KRW 2020 Macro MapKorea's economy looks set to be forming a meaningful floor in Q4 and with a helping hand from a temporary pause in protectionism we should see KRW remain in bid for the first half of 2020. For the domestic story, Korean exports have fallen which spilt over to the demand side. With this in mind, should the USD devaluation / reflationary theme pick up pace for the first half of 1H20 it will mean repricing in KRW. On the monetary side, cuts are widely priced from BoK for January. Fundamental risks to the thesis com from US-China trade and the significance of USD devaluation. On the technicals, a textbook Steel Resistance has held at 1219.xx after completing an ABC target sequence. Very high odds a meaningful top is in place and invalidation to this count comes in above 1200. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions and etc. Another round of 2020 FX maps coming over the next few sessions. For those wanting to dig deeper with the 2020 strategies: NZDUSD USDJPY EURUSD EURSEK USDCNY
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | MAJOR BREAKOUT IN PLAY FOR EURUSDWith Fed & ECB cleared a good time to update the EURUSD chartbook: We have positioned live in two textbook cases: For the technicals EURUSD remains rangebound till we break above the highs. Only a close above will suggest a more important base is in place and upgrade my thesis to a conviction. Plenty of resistance above the market, I see scope for 1.16 in 2020 but would expect this to attract some profit taking. Good luck to those trading EURUSD already in longs or for those waiting patiently on the sidelines for the breakout to form. Thanks for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments!
Long
by ridethepig
4
Large Swing In Play For USDINR in 2020Here we are tracking the 2020 macro map for USDINR, a high yielding EM currency. The expansion in volatility here will come from CB coordination, and being short USDINR which generally would also support a view for better risk appetite means it acts a great portfolio hedge for those looking for high carry. On the INR side, macro figures are starting to indicate further upside although still stuck in low gears. The tax cuts from the fiscal side doing some of the heavy lifting thanks to Modi (India's version of Trump). Inflation is subdue with a lot more slack left in the labour market and a cheap commodity board. Should investors see the deficit handled appropriately then all boxes are checked for capital flows into India. Demand for INR looks set to improve and combined with the USD devaluation theme it makes a great few months for INR to see some appreciation. Risks to my thesis come from US-China protectionism, private capex not picking up (low odds after the attractive tax cuts) and to a lesser extent if RBI push the INR down by accumulating.
UShort
by ridethepig
Several bullish signals for the SPYThe bullish signals in my mind include: 1) Today's surge through resistance 2) The Fed keeping the rates the same from yesterdays meeting 3) Strong recent jobs report 4) USMCA trade agreement announced. Even though our politicians are mud slinging and financially irresponsible children, they managed to help the American worker and economy for once this year. I wish I only had to accomplish one thing per year :D 5) I believe our orange Thanos will now be able to use USMCA to make a trade deal more attractive for China; this is speculation but possible.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Johnny_Nickles
UK election results and ECB decisionConcluding a year that saw the central bank take down its benchmark rate three times, the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday met widely held expectations and kept the funds' rate at the same level. The Fed is completely satisfied with the current state of things. As a result, markets do not expect any changes in the monetary policy until the end of 2020. The dollar was sold out following the Fed’s decision and Powell’s comments. Our position on the dollar today is unchanged - we are looking for points for its sales. Another promising position for today is pound purchases. General election 2019 polling day today Today, December 12. Its results can change not only the political situation in the country but also affect Brexit. Moreover, its influence can be quite diverse and even opposite. Detailed analytics on this issue is given in yesterday’s review. Here, we note that, in our opinion, the balance of threats/opportunities and profits/risks is biased towards profits and opportunities. Christine Lagarde faces her first real test at ECB debut meeting. The era of Draghi is over, but what Lagarde will remember is still unclear. If she decides to express her vision and strategy, movements may well be in pairs with the euro. As for the parameters of monetary policy, today we do not expect any changes. So today it’s worthwhile to be more careful with the euro, on the one hand, be more careful, and on the other, the euro may well get out of hibernation, which will provide opportunities for earning. And finally, a few words about the oil market. IPO Saudi Aramco the initial public offering is expected to raise at least $25.6 billion, making it the largest ever with a capitalization of $ 1.88 trillion. The oil market more than calmly reacted to this news. Nevertheless, so far our position on oil remains unchanged - we will continue to search for opportunities for oil purchases on the intraday basis.
by Trade24Fx
ridethepig | RUB Market Commentary 2019.02.12Here we go for a round of EM FX market updates and with Oil on the move first up USDRUB. After the doldrums of Thanksgiving liquidity is starting to enter back into play, although with market out of position there is no need to overload exposure. The USD tide is turning and clients here are pressing the buy side on RUB crosses to play the dollar sell-off. More activity coming with NY session, a good level to pick up offers as the cross drives through technical momentum at 64.3x. Best of luck all those in RUB
Short
by ridethepig
3
Expecting Weakness In Dollar Into Year EndA timely update to the Dollar chart after clearing Fed minutes. Nothing to update after the third cut, Fed front loading the DXY decline over the coming months and quarters. Firstly lets start with our Long-term Dollar chart: Mainstream media selling the orderly brexit resolution and reflationary growth rebound to strategically converge the gap with the US. This is on track to work, a master stroke which will weaken flows into US assets. EUR will benefit as collateral here with global yields higher it is going to squeeze the hand of the over leveraged US market, which will be the start of the turndown in US Equities: I also see EURUSD rallying next year: As widely expected since 2018... For the short-term flows, all eyes on 98.00 as the key level in play for the rest of the year. Expecting market to turn offer into year-end and I target the 96 handle with potential for USD to continue the decline well into 2020. Best of luck all those trading USD, jump into the comments with your ideas and charts!
TVC:DXYShort
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | Buying Dips In Euro...A very good time to update the Euro chart after the infamous "Worm in the apple". For those who have not played before I highly recommend seeing the textbook examples from the playbook here: EUR holding well and failing to give anything back to bears after our flawless swing earlier in the week (but also not taking the widely mentioned key 1.11xx resistance). While its both unsurprising and clear that risk markets are less sanguine, perhaps what is surprising is the resilience the Euro has shown. For those macro players this is screaming loudly !!!! that FX positioning is changing into yearend and the flight to quality into USD is losing its importance . The technical jurisdictions are clearly mapped with 1.109x acting as resistance, if US data undershoots again today a break of the highs is in play. Those looking to add bullish exposure should track the 1.103x support. Remember we can comfortably lean on the long-term swing: I am expecting EUR to find a strong bid next year as we see a new chapter in growth differentials. This will act as a catalyst in the reversal of capitals flows from the euro area to the US and serve as support in EURUSD . The risk to the thesis comes from European growth flopping next year, investors will therefore expect lower returns from the euro area and therefore European assets would sell off, weighing heavy on the currency. Short-term threatening to enter into wide consolidation till year-end, price action eminent of strong support at current levels. I sense that a clean break of 1.11 is now being watched as the catalyst for fresh demand and am comfortable buying anything inside the 1.09xx handle, as opposed to chasing the breakout. Watching EURJPY through 120.70 for clues. Good luck to all those trading the buy side and today's data. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes and comments!
Long
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | USDJPY Market Commentary 2019.11.26Here we are trading USDJPY at the highs in the range with macro risk-off themes still remaining in play and unchanged despite how the local news is selling the extended bull market. On the monetary side, BOJ clearly have their hands tied with the ECB/FED coordination. To put simply, any BoJ easing will follow ECB/FED which will be positive JPY via risk factors. On the rate differential sides, UST and JGB continue the decline which still indicates lower USDJPY. Here I am tracking for the leg towards 100 and beyond as USD devaluation kicks in. On the technical side, tracking 109.0x steel resistance with 107.0x support holding the key to unlocking the swing towards 100.xx. Good luck all those holding $JPY ... a very interesting environment as we enter into year-end.
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | NZD 2020 Macro MapA good time to update the roadmap for NZDUSD as we enter into the final chapter of 2019. The market has been heavily short NZDUSD all year, pricing in further cuts from RBNZ, the anticipation of a dovish CB was short-circuited and we are starting to see a reduction in their short positions. This was evident in my previous post: From a strictly macro perspective, NZD is not expected to outperform however the housing market is showing signs of strength as collateral from AUD. I see room for markets to reduce further the over pricing of RBNZ cuts, which will support NZD in the short-medium term. On the USD side, as widely mentioned here and in the Telegram channel, USD weakness is reaching out theatres and will be even more evident in high-beta currencies like NZD. Those following will also know I am long NZD crosses, NZDCAD continues to make a lot of sense with CAD longs being unwound after the dovish BoC. Important to note 

key risks to this trade come from unexpected RBNZ intervention. Good luck all those planning FX trades into 2020. The environment is going to become increasingly difficult as investors position around US election risks, my 2020 FX outlook reports along with other strategy research in the coming weeks. 2020 is setting up for fireworks on the FX board with expectations and valuations starting to diverge and with late cycle concerns creeping back in through the back door to put the cherry on top. For those interested can send a PM on Tradingview.
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | CHF Market Commentary 2019.11.28USDCHF still caught in the tight range, patience and flexibility important here, range bound 1.002x - 0.984x with both parameters significant now, it looks like being a roller-coaster into year-end. EURCHF very strong support 1.093x - more inclined to buy dips and play from the long side. I still favour upside EURCHF but as people still cutting longs we are unlikely to progress significantly higher in short term. We are right back to our previous entry point and tracking exactly the same flows ... and by now I know all following here will know what to do at key resistance: Remember, we can comfortably lean on the long-term chart: and for those with a background in waves - we got stuck in severe chop within the same sequence: With two sides to the theme we are trading the large macro flows from widespread USD devaluation as a main course dinner, while CHF outflows are likely via "orderly Brexit resolution" which will go on to act as desert. Remember CHF is the lowest yielder in G10 FX, it's been mainly used as a funding currency for carry trades, if risk ticks high in 2020 we are going to have a textbook zig-zag in play. So the initial 'zig' (as seen above) coming from front-loaded USD devaluation into year-end/Jan, followed by decent CHF profit taking in February as those who used CHF to hedge Brexit begin to unwind. The major waterfall looks only to continue with momentum via US election risk and Brexit after the fact impacts (the kind you cannot heal from a political poll in the Times). In any case, thanks all for keeping the likes and support rolling. As usual jump in the comments with your ideas and charts !!
Short
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | USDCAD 2020 Macro MapThis chart is for those mapping USDCAD over the coming Quarters; a clean and simple strategy targeting the lows of 1.27xx by mid 2020 before finding somewhat of a bounce back towards the 1.30xx handle by year-end. Main theme behind the flows is coming from dollar devaluation, I would recommend all to follow the Macro Dollar charts I have posted: The reflation theme which is a bi-product of the dollar devaluation will allow CAD to outperform in the immediate term. There are two sides to the currency pairs, rather than CAD strength in this move we are trading USD weakness. A wide range which is already starting to show signs of cracking the downside: Best of luck all those trading USDCAD into year-end with dollar devaluation underway, this is going to be a monster swing with fireworks on both sides.
Short
by ridethepig
4
Trump helps safe havens and puts pressure on the dollarYesterday against the positive comments from the US and China regarding trade negotiations, safe-haven assets were under pressure. That is not surprising. Recall our position on gold and the Japanese yen – is to buy, however, now we should trade with an eye to a possible surge of optimism in the financial markets against the background of breaking news from Washington. Nevertheless, such descents of safe-haven assets should be tried to be used for short-term speculative trading with small stops. Yesterday is a vivid confirmation of this. The meeting between Trump and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell provoked the sale of the dollar in the foreign exchange market and led to an increase in gold prices. The reason is Trump's comments on negative rates and a strong dollar, which were discussed at the meeting. So there is nothing new: Trump consistently opposed the strong dollar and ultra-low rates. So nothing extraordinary happened yesterday. Another important news is the information about the IPO Saudi Aramco - on the one hand, it is the largest public offering in history (company's capitalization), and in addition, this event is important for the oil market. So, $ 2 trillion of capitalization seems to remain in the dreams of the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia. Preliminary estimates are $ 1.6- $ 1.7 trillion. Which, however, will still make the company the most expensive in the world. Regarding the situation in the oil market, despite the desire of the Saudis to conduct an IPO in the most favorable conditions (rising oil prices), as well as the continued decline in the number of active oil wells in the United States, we believe that current oil prices are close to extreme for of these conditions, which means we will sell oil both on the intraday basis and in the medium term. But do not forget about the stops. A breakthrough in negotiations between the US and China could provoke not only sales in safe-haven assets, but also an increase in oil prices. Our other trading preferences are unchanged - the Russian ruble can and should be sold. The US dollar is also interesting enough to open short positions, especially after yesterday's sales. The pound feels rather confident in the foreign exchange market in light of the growing confidence of the markets in the victory of the Johnson party in the elections, but we are interested in its purchases on the slopes, and not along the way. So we will wait until the pound is substituted, and only then buy it.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
Powell breaks taboo & opens a Pandora's boxThis week Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was speaking to Congress. He the things that may modify the state of the foreign exchange market. It is not about the Fed rates and the monetary policy vector, but about problems that have been trying not to talk about, because attracting attention to them is a very risky idea. We are talking about the so-called “three Ds” which are major US problems and precisely because of which it can collapse into the abyss. They are Government Debt, Budget Deficit, Trade Balance Deficit. In our reviews, we have already mentioned that more than once. The markets preferred to remain silent about “three Ds” existence since this is a time bomb for the US economy It's only a matter of time before it detonates. The US debt exceeds GDP and reached $ 24 trillion, the budget deficit is about a trillion dollars a year, the negative balance of export surplus on an annualized basis has exceeded $ 0.5 trillion. These figures also tend to deteriorate, since the construction of the pyramid of public debt in such conditions is inevitable and sooner or later it will collapse. Sum up, the dollar and the US economy will be under ruins. Therefore the markets are trying not to think about it. However, this week, Powell upset the stability and attracted the attention of markets to the problems of public debt and budget deficits, noting that without their fundamental decision, the US won't help any Fed action. The current rate leaves very little chance for the action of the Central Bank in the event of a crisis. Powell admitted that this time the Fed is unlikely to be able to pull the United States out of depression, as it was in 2007-2009. Focusing on the “three Ds” is a very bad signal for the dollar. If the markets turn their attention to these problems, the dollar may begin a very protracted decline, the bottom of which is simply not visible from the current height. So, our position to sell the dollar has only received additional argumentation. It is worth noting the positive statistics on German GDP. Positive because the country escaped the recession and was able to demonstrate even minimal, but still GDP growth (0.1% with the forecast of -0.1%). The eurozone as a whole also showed GDP growth (0.2% with the forecast of 0.1%). In this light, the current price of the euro seems quite attractive for us to purchase it. The variation of the hundred points is permissible. Remember set up small stops. The pound ignored weak macroeconomic statistics (retail sales appeared worse than expected in the negative zone). Which once again confirms our recommendation to buy a pound at the earliest opportunity. The only threat to the pound is Brexit. But from this side, problems should not be expected until the election results are announced. So we continue to look for points to buy the pound. China showed weak data. Which again renewed the purchase of safe-haven assets. Nevertheless, buying gold or the Japanese yen you should be careful, since any positive news regarding the negotiations between the US and China may stimulate local sales in safe-haven assets.
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
Morgan Stanley warns, Powell & inflation under scrutinyThe current week is full of informational events around the oil market. Which continues to play into the hands of sellers. Yesterday, for example, Morgan Stanley analysts warned that if OPEC + participants at their next meeting on December 5 do not announce a higher reduction in production (current volumes of 1.2 million barrels), then Brent quotes will drop to $ 45 (now the price is around 62). That is, the scale of the fall will be about 25-30%. The chances of a new agreement are small, since countries that are not members of OPEC + are increasing production, so it’s not worth counting on the fact that Cartel members will aloud another loses. Accordingly, the downward pressure on oil quotes in December may increase sharply. Recall that this week we revised our intraday asset position and again recommend oil sales. And a few words about the oil market, but in the context of our recommendation to sell the ruble. According to Saudi Aramco, the cost of producing a barrel of oil in Russia exceeds $ 40, two times more compared with Saudi Arabia, and in general, is one of the highest rates in the world (even higher than in the UK and the USA). That is, Russia is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world for falling oil prices. That is why we recommend the sale of the Russian ruble. Meanwhile, ZEW data for the Eurozone as a whole and Germany, in particular, show that economic expectations are still pessimistic, so yesterday's downward pressure on the euro is understandable. The pound reacted quite positively to the statistics on the labour market in the UK, but yesterday there were no strong movements in pound pairs. We continue to wait for news from the Brexit, but for now, there is none - we work with the pound without obvious preferences on the intraday basis - you can buy or sell it, also use the oversold/overbought time zones as guidelines. Today, the reason for the pound volatility jump may be inflation statistics. Given that at the last meeting of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, two members spoke out in favour of lowering the rate, weak inflation data could well trigger a pound decline. We recommend using this for cheaper purchases. Also, data on consumer inflation will be published in the United States. It will be interesting in the context of the fact that in the evening Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak to the Congress. The markets are now very concerned about what the Fed is going to do next. The current consensus is a pause in the Fed's actions. But any Powell's allusions to the possibility of an early rate cut will almost certainly provoke a dollar sale in the foreign exchange market.
FX:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
Uncertainties remain! Dovish statement We just received the 25 basis points rate cut. The market had already priced it in. Powell just released the statement. It seems to be a dovish one . He will start his speech at 2:30pm, where the market will try to understand the possibility of a 4th rate cut in December. The CBOE Fed tool has the 4th cut in December at 26%. We should see the yield curve steepen. ----- Economic reports GDP report was positive/neutral. ADP employment change headlines were good, but analyst are not happy reading into the details.
TVC:TNXShort
by dorfmanmaster
ROKU - Will it fill the gap?Today's market showed some breath, specially for software. Which is normally a growth>value story. $118 is the closing gap resistance. Important market sentiment: Tomorrow October 4th will be a deciding move, as we get the employment report before the open (8:30am ET). With recent continued weak manufacturing data, this employment data could tell us if a recession is coming, and more importantly (short-term), if the FOMC is going to cut rates again. The market has the cut now priced with a probability of 90% at the end of this month.
NASDAQ:ROKU
by dorfmanmaster
1
USDJPY+FOMC+BOJThe chart tells 2 stories. First, the rate drop July 30th. 7 days of strong downward trend, afterward. News spike, comfort zone, FED minutes...........Powell Speaks, the market reverses the following monday. Even though bonds maintained a solid downtrend UJ wanted to recover. As it always does, thats why this pair is the only pair I trade. Its the best for exactly that. But soon I feel this range will end. Allowing Japans currency to continue the rise. This would push Japan to becoming a superpower as their economic model shifts into the new age, leading the way. This of course takes time but moments like these are at the turning points in history, before something big happens? Or will it be where the market just consolidates. After Powell's speech, the market reverses last wednesday sept 18th within range of the HTF downward trend line, on the HTF. Another Rate Drop, right at the same location. The market tries again to break the trend (not really just everyone loading up hahaha), right as Quarles FOMC member makes a public appearance, the market begins to see head winds. And here we are now,
Short
by COGS86
1
Balance, G7 and Jackson Hole outcome, problems of GermanyTrump: China is ready to go back to the negotiating table. China, for its part, reiterated its desire to resolve trade problems through negotiations. safe-haven assets against this background have slightly adjusted and provided excellent opportunities. Despite the optimistic comments from Trump’s side as well as Chinese, everything might change. We have recently observed something similar and buying safe-haven assets tactics on the descents over the past few weeks was the right decision. So our recommendation is to buy gold and the Japanese yen. The only thing, given the increased volatility, do not forget to set stops - it is better to re-enter. The G7 meeting results can be called insignificant. We did not hear any revolutionary statements. So we believe that this event is already “played out” and taken into account. As for the Jackson Hole symposium outcome, there was a lot of concern, but representatives of the Central Banks have stated that crisis and cyclical issues need to be solved not only by monetary methods but also by fiscal ones. Returning to Powell’s speech on Friday, he did not say anything fundamentally new and did not clarify the current state of affairs. Nevertheless, our position on the dollar is unchanged - we are looking for points for its sales. As for the euro. Data on the business climate in the largest economy of the Eurozone (Germany) again frankly disappointed. The IFO business climate index in August came out worse than expected 94.3 with a forecast of 95.1. This is the minimum value for the last 7 years. Therefore, markets expectations as for the monetary policy easing only intensified. So it’s better to wait a while with euro purchases. But its sales against the pound or the Japanese yen look like good trading ideas.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
Dollar fails Powell’s test, China and Trump keep tensionsFor the whole last week we were waiting for a symposium in Jackson Hole to be held (The Economic Symposium, held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is attended by central bankers, finance ministers, academics, and financial market participants from around the world. ). Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech on Friday was the main event. The markets were waiting for the “official” confirmation of monetary easing by the Fed, the ECB and other central banks. Attention focused on a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell for news on whether it will cut interest rates for a second time this year to boost the world's largest economy. But at the same time, he did not specify a time limit. China intends to raise tariffs on US imported goods total $ 75 billion the decision was made in response to the USA. Besides, the import tax on American cars and auto parts will be increased. Trump, of course, reacted extremely nervously to such actions by China, promising to take retaliatory measures. China has a deserved reputation for intellectual property theft. On Friday, Trump estimated China robs the US of “hundreds of billions” a year in ideas. So there is a reason to believe that a very hot and hectic week awaits us. In this light, buying safe-haven assets seems like a good trading idea. But once again we note that the choice of the entry point is extremely important. The upcoming week promises to be calm. Attention should be paid only on the US GDP. Otherwise, the attention will be focused on the confrontation between the USA and China, as well as the Fed. Our trading preferences this week: selling the dollar, finding points for buying gold and the Japanese yen, buying the British pound and selling the Russian ruble. Also, oil sales seem appropriate.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx