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EURO LONG NOW OR NEVERLooking at the monthly EUR/USD chart the confluences are more so evident. The Stochastic Oscillator showing divergence of the lows. Price currently sitting just below the 61.8% Fib retracement, You can see the ascending channel beginning to form with our 1.3900 handle target being confluent with channel resistance and the D2 Fibonacci extension -61.8% respectively. I want a monthly close on Wednesday after the rate decision above the 6 month EMA and above the 1.1300 handle to confirm the start of the next leg up. This will also couple with a EURO Long summer rally. X MARKS THE SPOT
Long
by zenithmarkets
EURO LONG NOW OR NEVERAs far as risk goes you have to.. for the biscuit. We see Multiple technical confluences surrounding the 1.1170 handle with an X marks the spot scenario. Quarterly chart implies a continuation of the long term up trend for the pair. We are sitting around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and have support from an ascending and descending trendline. With the possible US rate cut later this week we could have the catalyst needed to get the ball rolling. With a 50bp cut the EUR/USD could be sent back above the 1.1300 handle by the monthly close on Wednesday. Speculatively we are looking for the 1.3900 handle being respected at some point in 2020. The 1.1700 handle will be met by the end of the year.
Long
by zenithmarkets
EUR/USD losing momentum ahead of important US reportsThe EUR/USD pair is printing an indecisive candlestick after a bull run last week, signaling that market participants are taking a break to assess latest news from the Fed. The USD consolidation phase may not last long as important US reports are scheduled for tomorrow: US retail sales, core retail sales, and Fed's Powell is delivering a speech. The pair will likely continue to trade sideways until markets get a clearer picture of the future US monetary policy. We're overall neutral/bullish on the pair. The price made consecutive higher highs and higher lows since May, and we've already traded the recent wedge breakout combined with a hidden bullish RSI divergence. Like our analysis? Please support us by hitting the "LIKE" button. Thanks!
by MujkanovicFX
Consequences, oil surplus & dollar in troubleThe previous week provided quite eventful for the financial market. Now, the market expects the Fed to cut the interest rate this month. The probability of such outcome is 100%. So, there is a conundrum, reducing by 0,25% or 0,5 %? After two days of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony to Congress making the US dollar a weak player as a short dollar. The current downtrend is just a beginning as the US dollar is at extremum point. In addition, as the USA monetary policy has shifted supporting bearish trend. The one and only important data will be Retail Sales Report in the USA, therefore, we sell the dollar. Force majeure events are near term and not supporting the current market conjuncture that has been named as long-term Surplus. International Energy Agency 2Q 2019 the surplus was 900 000 b / d. As we can observe the OPEC + No. 2 did not precipitate the commodity deficit. Since 2011 oil consumer demand growth rate is at its lows, we will sell the oil. Trade war is the reason for all the trouble the economy is facing. China reported a data pact with macroeconomic data: GDP and industrial production growth rate, retail sales indicator. Despite the fact that the outcome is better than expected, GDP growth was 6.2%, which is below the minimum mark of 6.5%, which the Chinese Government put in its long-term development strategy. Earlier, China reported a decline in exports by 7.3%, and Singapore (one of the world's most export-dependent economies) reported a decline in GDP in the second quarter by 3.4% (the maximum decline since 2012). Our trading recommendations for today are as follows. We continue to look for opportunities to sell the dollar in almost all pairs (USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD). Sell the Russian ruble and oil. We continue to sell the oil near the highs and buying from the lows.
FX:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
Trump PUT carries market to all-time highsCheap, low interest rate money carries us to all time highs (market top april 21, 2021) and then sinks us. Predictions: Trump is reelected in November of 2020 Interest rates are lowered to near zero There is some type of mass credit/lending fraud Tech bubble bursts. Investments in companies with no real path to profitability are abandoned. NASDAQ 100 losses in 2021-2022 outpace S&P 500. Exodus from ETFS. Investment/Asset management industry hit hard as well
AMEX:SPYLong
by awesomo10
1
What is behind the gold and oil growth & Powell again signals Perhaps the main event that jogged financial markets and had effected on the momentum of oil prices valuations, as well as gold prices, was an incident in the Strait of Hormuz. This time the United Kingdom and Iran were involved. Three Iranian warships tried to block the passage of the British company BP tanker. A British warship offset the attempt, but the tension is increasing in the region. So, the gold and other safe-haven assets’ price increase was sharp yesterday. This week, the fundamental background is on the bull's side with respect to oil. In addition to the above-mentioned incident, the reduction in US reserves, tropical storm Barry likely to form in the Gulf of Mexico, and threats from Trump regarding a toughening of sanctions against Iran supported oil buyers. The Bank of England yesterday published its financial stability report. The most interesting that was published was the likelihood of the Great Britain exit “scenario” without a deal has grown, which in turn can provoke negative consequences for the British economy. However, the pound reacted calmly to this report. So our position is unchanged - we are looking for points for its purchases. Day two of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony to Congress, he noted that the current rates are in the neutral area, however, there is a chance that the Fed might cut the rates. At the same time, the markets are more confident with a rate cut in July. They are more likely guessing about the question “For how much it will be lowered” by 0.5% or by 0.5% at once. So far ¾ support the first variant. Recall, this is quite a bearish signal for the dollar. Analysts are revising their dollar forecasts downward. Recall, we remind you about the feasibility of selling the dollar on the foreign exchange market. Friday promises to be a “rest stop”. And this means that participants in financial markets are likely to continue to follow the current trends. Our trading recommendations for today are as follows. We continue to look for opportunities for selling the dollar (USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD). Sell the Russian ruble. Sell the gold near the highs and buy from the lows.
Long
by Trade24Fx
GBPUSD Daily Update: Sterling faces buying pressureHi traders. We've started a new section in our TradingView profile with daily updates for major pairs, gold, oil, and indices. The GBP/USD pair is trading significantly lower after triggering an H&S pattern - a setup that we shorted in our Trading Club and posted here on TradingView. The previous week, markets dumped the pound on views that the UK economy is slowing down and that the BoE will likely need to adopt a looser monetary policy - in line with other major central banks. As a result, the GBPUSD pair fell to levels not seen in years (ignoring the Jan 03 flash-crash). However, the last two days have been beneficial for the pound, not only because the price reached strong horizontal support, but also because markets started to price in a higher chance for a US rate cut. Still, the pair trades in an overall downtrend and we won't buy it until we receive more signs of a trend reversal. The RSI formed a triple bullish divergence, suggesting that we could see higher prices in the coming days. Like our analysis? Please support us by hitting the "LIKE" button. Thanks!
by MujkanovicFX
EUR/USD Daily Update: Bull run continues for second day.EURUSD has continued its bull run for the second day, after breaking out of a bullish wedge pattern and reaching near a horizontal support zone. From a technical standpoint, the higher highs on the daily chart suggest that an uptrend is forming. Yesterday's dovish testimony by Fed's Powell put selling pressure on the greenback as markets place a higher possibility for a rate cut. Like our work? Please support us by hitting the "LIKE" button. Thanks!
by MujkanovicFX
Fed Protocol, BoC, and the UKAs we all know “the market is addictive to news”, it is not wondering that yesterday’s testifying to Congress by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the announcement of the Bank of Canada decision on monetary policy, as well as a fairly extensive block of statistical data from the UK, led to increased volatility in financial markets. Let's analyze these events in chronological order. Great Britain relaxed quite positive data, which triggered the pound growth. Recall, we recommended its purchases, so those of our readers who looked up to our advice made good money. GDP and industrial production value have increased we cannot but mention the data on construction and trade balance that pleasantly surprised, appeared much better than forecasts. Bank of Canada holds interest rate steady, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that rate cut is not a panacea. Jerome Powell’s testimony at Congress. Markets expected him to make statements/comments about the Fed rate cut. However, Powell noted that the risks remain steady for the US economy, due to business investment slow down caused by the trade war, while inflation remains weak, which suggests that interest rates might be reduced this month. After Powell's testimony, the minutes of the last FOMC Fed meeting were published. Which only strengthened markets confidence in lowering the rates in the USA. The discussion of the Fed members about the prospects for monetary policy at the last meeting showed that there is a strong bias towards cut rates. The result is a short dollar. But inflation statistics from the US, as well as the second day of Powell’s testimony, may well trigger a rise in volatility in pairs with the dollar. Our trading recommendations for today are as follows. We continue to look for opportunities for selling the dollar (USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD). Sell the Russian ruble. We are looking for points for sales of gold, which again climbed very high.
Long
by Trade24Fx
EURUSD short post payrollsOn our analysis as at the 02.07 we indicated that we were short EURUSD and were looking to start taking profit below 1.12. Since then the currency pair has effectively dropped towards 1.12 mainly on the back of a significantly stronger than expected payroll number of 224K jobs added compared to 160K jobs forecast reducing the chances of a rate cut in July. We will therefore be holding our short position as we await the Powell's testimony and the FOMC minutes on Wednesday.
Short
by KQMarkets
FED's Easing Cycle Has Opened Path for DXY To HIT 93.00 Level !For the last several months we have seen the USD rise against all major currencies and while this was happening we were technically starting to get warning signs of BEARISH DIVERGENCE in the RSI! Fundamentally the US Economy remained strong back then with little worries regarding the trade war and geopolitical issues. The markets thought that the economy wont be impacted by the trade war in a long run as a trade deal could be reached soon but its been months and the saga still goes on. The US economic data has been under achieving and the FED instead of raising rates to a possible two times this year has switched its course to cutting them. A MAJOR DOVISH SWITCH! As this happened, the USD Index fell from the highs and has now comfortably broken the triangle's lower trendline and the weekly price has also closed below the EMA 50. All this indicates a strong trend switch is now in play and we could see the price potentially drop towards 93.00 where the next trendline is present. 93.00 also is a concrete support drawn from the monthly charts which has been respected on numerous occasions. As the time goes, the picture will be more clear and clear but one thing is clear, FED's easing cycle will surely be the main driver for DXY downfall to 93.00! Many predicted that the yellow metal will rise this year and boy they were not wrong as many major central banks have switched to easing cycle. Should the FED keep easing to support the economy we could see the yellow metal reach new highs and SAFEHAVEN FX currencies such CHF and JPY Appreciate against other currencies.
TVC:DXYShort
by FX618Analysis
1
1700 per ounce of gold, another crisis signal, Powell's speechFed’s monetary policy vector changes, the pressure between the US and Iran has reached a critical level, the overall high level of investor concern led to the fact that gold almost reached 1140 yesterday. As a result, an increasing number of traders and analysts are turning into purchases. In particular, Marc Chandler from Bannockburn Global Forex believes that a breakdown of 1400 opens the way for gold to 1700. We are far from being so optimistic and we will look for points for its sales. In the meantime, analysts are continuing to look for signals about the coming crisis. Earlier, it was the inversion yield curve inversion, the departure of the Real Monetary Proposal to zero, the cycle theory, the decline of America's auto industry. The Fed is changing its approach to monetary policy by changes tightening and so on... Small-cap companies, as well as transport company stocks relative to the SP500 index dynamics, have shown the worst dynamics since 2009 (!). In theory, small-cap companies should grow much more actively than high-cap companies. And we are now seeing a kind of inversion. This inversion, according to analysts, is a disturbing signal and is a harbinger of the coming crisis. Data from the United States came out quite weak. New home sales also disappointed with 626k, missing expectations of 684k, as was the Conference Board said its consumer confidence index dropped 9.8 points to a reading of 121.5 this month, the lowest since September 2017. Jerome H. Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, said Tuesday that the downside risks to the US economy grew, but he avoided the topic of lowering rates. So the dollar received some support. Therefore we will use this dollar growth solely for the purpose of selling it more expensively. Today, surges of volatility in pound pairs are quite possible. The Bank of England (BOE) inflation report hearings will hog the limelight this Wednesday. Governor Mark Carney’s testimony will be closely heard, in the face of the recent dovish tilt. Note that the hearings will be on the May inflation report. In addition, data on orders for durable goods and the US trade balance may well lead to the formation of local trends in dollar pairs. Our trading preferences for today: we will continue to look for points for sales of the US dollar against the Japanese yen, euro, and pound. We continue to wait for a gold correction and look for points for its sales. And also we will actively sell the ruble both on the intraday basis as well as medium term.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Trade24Fx
TRADERSAI A.I. Powered Model Trades for today, TUE 06/25Markets to Look at Consumer Confidence and Powell's Diffidence for Direction Last week's record highs in the markets were driven by the Fed's stand on standing pat on the interest rates. Today's consumer confidence numbers could throw some light onto their rationale. And, Chairman Powell's remarks later today (at 1pm ET) could be what the markets are looking for to determine which direction to run in (or, to just keep meandering around).  Check out below the trading plans indicated for today by our models (not able to post the link here - check on our site) #ES #SP500 #SPX #SPY #Fed #Record #Yields
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Top 3 assets to sale, Libra, Trump and PowellDescribing yesterday cannot fail to mention that the markets are still following the current trends. The short dollar is one of them. The Fed's policy was criticized by Mr. Trump again. Also, praising himself Tump could not but notice that June may be turn out to be a fruitful one. The pressure that has been put on the fed carries a goal, the achievement of which is leading to dollar decrease. A sharp easing of monetary policy in the USA could hit the dollar a lot. Fed's interest-rate cut is leading to the short dollar. The USA and Iran relations are particularly fraught, against this background, gold became one of the main "beneficiaries" and settled above $1,400 ( has reached a peak since 2013). Nevertheless, we believe that the current price is a deviation from the norm than an adequate and fair price of gold, taking into account the facts available, rather than expectations and rumors. So, gold selling strategy seems to us quite an interesting and promising one. But you need to be aware that sales are at odds with the current market will, therefore, set small stops. Another interesting and promising position is the sale of the ruble. The information that Russia is planning to spend tens of billions of dollars from the Welfare Fund to revive economic growth (despite the fact that the Fund’s size is already falling rapidly: if its size exceeded 75 billion in 2017, it was less than 59 billion in June 2019). Especially when you consider that last year the Reserve Fund of the Russian Federation was exhausted (more precisely, it was formally attached to NWF, but it changes nothing). The lack of financial resources is so strong that most inviolable stocks are used. And if the oil drops below 35-40, then there will be simply nothing to protect the ruble with. And the last one but not the least one asset for sale is cryptocurrency (in this case it does not really matter what you will sell Bitcoin, Ripple, Ether or something else). Libra cryptocurrency has injected new vitality into the cryptocurrency market. At least, the current price for leading cryptocurrencies and their dynamics so far are clearly hinted at this. We have already noted that we do not share this optimism. In our opinion, no revolution has happened. Libra is a cryptocurrency and electronic money hybrid, rather than a cryptocurrency. Libra will have both an issuer, regulation, and security (all this contradicts the essence and basic concept of Nakamoto). So the current surge in prices on the cryptocurrency market is a great opportunity to make money on sales. But again, do not underestimate the " crowd madness" and should be ready to move against the open position and being "underwater". Today we are waiting for the real estate market, data on business activity and consumer confidence statistics to be announced, as well as Mr. Powell's speech. Our trading preferences for today: we will continue to look for points for sales of the US dollar against the Japanese yen, euro, and pound. We continue to wait for the correction in gold and look for points for its sales. And also we will actively sell the ruble both on the intraday basis and the medium term position.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Trade24Fx
1
XAUUSD possible pullback up to @1360. Open sell limit @ 1410-14Gold made a BIG move yesterday at Asian Session, that makes it move 300 pips in less than 3 minutes. I researched that the reason behind of this is the delayed Trade War talks of the United States and China. Now the Investors are shifting their equity into the safe haven assets just like Japanese Yen and one of it is Gold. In long term XAUUSD is being seen as bullish and it might go up to 1600. I would advise to open a sell limit at around 1410 and put a stop loss 100 pips on that area, and target around 400 pips that would make your ratio 4:1 Always use a proper risk management and always set your leverage low so that you wont get tempted to open another trade. Use STOP LOSS, it is not there just for display, it makes you save your account getting burned and being available to trade in the future.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by NathanielRondon
EURUSD still short On our analysis on the 04.06 we indicated that we were still short ahead of the ECB meeting but EURUSD went up after the ECB did not hint at any potential future rate cuts as anticipated by the market. However, at the ECB forum in Sintra, Mario Draghi indicated that interest rate cuts are a possibility which sent EURUSD tumbling below the 1.11926 Fibonacci level at which point we took some profit. We will now hold our short position and wait for the outcome of the FED rate decision and Powell's speech on Wednesday.
Short
by KQMarkets
USDJPY still long On our analysis on the 04.06 when USDJPY was at the Fibonnaci support level at 107.894 we advised that we would start to build a long position. The currency pair has since gone up towards 108.8 last week and consolidated at around 108.6 on the back of stronger than expected retail sales last Friday. The markets are rather subdued ahead of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday therefore we will wait for the outcome of the FED rate decision and Powell's speech with a view towards starting to take profit at around 109.
Long
by KQMarkets
1
A new decline for Aud/UsdA new decline is expected for Aud/Usd, in fact in the last sessions the price stabilized between 78.6% and 100% of the Fibonacci retracement. Speaking about the price it was between the support at 0.675 and the resistance at 0.705. Throughout the summer it should continue to lateralize in this channel as, fundamentally, both the Australian central bank and the FED will not distort their monetary policies. At this time, however, investors and analysts are expecting a slight change from Powell. He should cut rates in the July meeting: the market has already discounted this news, causing a retracement of dollar against the other majors. For now we expect a maintenance of this level, with the dollar that should find the necessary strength to reach the main short-term supports against other currencies. Technically, on this pair the price should go back to testing the static support at 0.675. This before the monthly closing in June.
Short
by BFCMInvest
USDJPY - Key Fibonacci Support LevelWe have seen USDJPY drop recently due to an increase in trade tensions between the US and China which has put downward pressure on the dollar and increased demand for the Yen which is a safe haven currency. Additionally, the expected rate cut in the US due to fears over the economy has put added pressure on the currency pair as the benchmark 10-year Treasury's yield is at it's lowest since September 2017 near 2%. USDJPY now sits at the Fibonnaci support level at 107.894 so we will start building a long term long position and we will be closely monitoring the currency pair as Powell Discusses Policy Strategy at the Chicago Fed Conference later today.
Long
by KQMarkets
2
EUR/USD 1-HOUR TIMEFRAME SHORT (AFTER BEAR FLAG PATTERN)The EUR/USD currency pair is moving in a descending channel on the 4-hour timeframe, and prices have just broken out of a counter trend (ascending channel) on the 1-hour timeframe. I expect further downside of the pair after a small consolidation (breather/correction/pause) in the form of a bear flag pattern. However note that prices might skip this stage if bears are looking for "skin" (powerful enough). This should be a good scaling trade and the target is at the bottom of the ascending channel pattern at the price level 1.11870.
Short
by munyaelliott
Selling EURUSD at current levels with Targets at 1.11 and 1.09Here selling EURUSD ahead of the Brexit pantomime. We have completed the retrace since the ECB flows and it is time to start getting back to work on the sell-side in Europe. From a technical perspective, we are trading the remainder to the downside of the 2nd wave. Inside this wave 2 we have just completed an ABCDE pattern and it is time to break to the downside. All cards are in play, best of luck all those trading this one. Thanks.
Short
by ridethepig
2
EurUsd price broke again the resistanceEUR/USD price broke again the resistance, we recommend a long entrance with a target of 1,133 / 1,138 with timing not exceeding 2-3 days. Then, once there is a rejection with daily confirmation, reposition short in the short period (a few weeks) with the target area between the 1.10 and the 1.08.. It is returning to the side channel that has been stalling since October. This channel is formed by the static resistance at 1.151 and the support just mentioned (1.118). The main trend of this pair has been set down for more than a year. Due to the opposing monetary policies adopted by the respective central banks. In this period, in the short/very short term, after the slowdown declared by the Fed, that will leave the rates unchanged even in tomorrow's session, a slight weakness is expected from the US dollar against the other majors. An upward breach of 1.133 will bring the price to test the subsequent static resistance, set at 1.138. A rejection by that level will bring the price back below 1.12 sanctioning a continuation of the main downtrend that will bring EURUSD to touch the 1.10 psychological support very soon. To summarize EUR/USD price broke again the resistance, we recommend a long entrance with a target of 1,133 / 1,138 with timing not exceeding 2-3 days. Then, once there is a rejection with daily confirmation, reposition short in the short period (a few weeks) with the target area between the 1.10 and the 1.08.
Long
by BFCMInvest
The price of usd/jpy is not able to break upThe price of usd/jpy is not able to break up the static resistance. This because of the macro scenario we can find around the us economy. We can find the minor one around 111.90. From here it is channeled again into a very short/short-term downtrend. That should bring it back to test the dynamic support area. As this movement is one of the most common in this technical scenario. That level coincides with the EMA 200 weekly and passing periods for the approximately 109.90. Moreover, following the macroeconomic scenario that is taking shape on the US dollar, it is very likely that this trend ends on the static support. In this situation we need to be ready to open a new order as a big opportunity, we can identified this level on the 61.8% of the Fibonacci retracement at an altitude of 109.3. In fact, with the FOMC minutes which were published yesterday and the monetary policy that will be declared at the next meeting of the FED this will certainly remain unchanged. This policy could not even modified to make it more expansive (favoring the pressures of Trump and the markets). Analysts expect a slight short-term devaluation by the US dollar against other majors. In the medium term, is expected a lot of laterality on the major pairs. The USD against the Yen should remain within this lateral channel.  This is formed by the support area set at 109.3 and the resistance set at 112.4. Unless there are sudden changes in the scenario, this is what is expected on USDJPY until the end of the first half of 2019.
by BFCMInvest