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TLT nearing bottom Still in line with my previous analysis. I approach this from an Elliot Wave perspective with Fibonacci relationship. To me this looks like a macro ABC with final leg down reaching extremes. We are likely in a bullish divergence territory on a Weekly Chart. The chart above is Daily for easier wave count to pin point where C might end. The support box is in gray; this is an area where a price could react with a strong bounce or reversal. As you can see we are already there so support could be found very soon. Another fib support coming up in the 90-96 range where I feel there is a strong possibility for a bottom (not guaranteed, hunting bottoms is a dangerous game). If we take a trend line in wave C from ii to iv and measure the trajectory of where v should end, it also points at a region of 90-96. If the market presents this opportunity it has a number of supports coming together all in that particular area. This bottom could mark the top in US10Y and other treasury bonds since they move inverse to TLT. Also the dollar index is hinting at a top and pushing extremes so I expect a reversal or a top in Sep-Oct timeframe. The month of September / October (2022) might come with fire works! Not a financial advice. Cheers,
NASDAQ:TLT
by Elliot618
2
SPY Crash - Prediction and explanation.This is my analysis of the market, specifically the S&P 500. Indicators and fundamentals that point to a massive drop. The formation identified is called a Broadening Formation (aka Megaphone Formation) Here's the link to better explain the formation in detail - www.investopedia.com As stated in the video, if you have a difference of a opinion, I would love to hear it and learn how you got there. I'm always willing to learn something new.
AMEX:SPYShort
0
by ReadyFor401k
13
My Top Stock Picks + 2021 PredictionsHappy New Years everybody! I hope everyone has taken some much-needed time off and enjoyed the long weekend just as much as I did! (aka wine and food lol!) To kick off the new year I've compiled a list of my top stock picks along with my 2021 S&P 500 predictions. I took all weekend researching all of these companies and will update them periodically. For the sake of time I will not discuss each of these companies individually, but rather my general criteria for evaluating stocks. If you would like an in-depth analysis of any of these companies let me know!! This week & this month: My game plan is to continue playing options for this week and maybe the entire month of January if volatility persists. I want to know the results of the Georgia runoff to gauge which stocks I'll add and which ones I'll keep an eye on for a dip before adding. In addition, I'm keeping an eye on China to see how they will retaliate to the delisting of three telecommunications companies from the NYSE. Finally, I want to see progress towards the $2000 cheques on Capitol Hill, will the Grim Reaper block the vote again? My top stock picks of 2021: As stated above, I will not discuss each company, instead I will talk about my criteria. The following is a criteria I use to evaluate companies before making any investing choices. My top picks - Growth: Is the company growing faster than its peers? Are earnings expected to keep growing? - Innovation: Is the company still innovating and/or creating new products/income streams? - Momentum: Is the stock price in an uptrend? Is it about to breakout of a pattern? - Risk: What are the risks involved with owning this company? Does the growth prospect overshadow this risk? - Future Implications: How will this company make a difference in the future? Is this technology/business model still in its adolescence? - Leadership: Are they a leader or laggard in their industry? - Differentiation: Is this company different from the rest? How is this company different? Is this difference enough to shield it from the competition? - Profitability: Is this company currently profitable or expected to be vastly profitable in the near future? Are they on the right track to profitability? How safe is this/are these income stream(s)? Almost every company on the list is strong in each of these categories, with the exception of IIPR which is not innovative but rather has high growth prospects and is extremely lucrative, or CRSP which is unprofitable but has a exciting future and life-changing implications (for example) The honourable mentions all fell short because of profitability, risk, and future implication uncertainties. I still rank them towards outperformance, however the risks, high expectations, and quantitative uncertainty pushed them off the main list Top Stock Picks of 2021: - Square (SQ) - Apple (AAPL) - Riot Blockchain (RIOT) - Crispr Therapeutics (CRSP) - Merck & Co (MRK) - Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR) - Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD) Honourable Mentions: - Nio (NIO) - Alibaba Group (BABA) - Chewy (CHWY) - Palatir Tech (PLTR) - FuboTV (FUBO) - Invitae (NVTA) - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 2021 predictions: Coming out of the recession, I am quite bullish and have high expectation for the next 5 years. I am looking for revenue growth & EBIT growth along with higher profit margins. Higher profit margins will signal an economies of scale efficiency; a fixed aspect of costs being utilized more effectively. I'm expecting companies to come out of the pandemic more profitable and efficient (effective capital utilization). ROA, ROE, Gross margin, and Profit margin are front and centre. My S&P 500 growth projections: Moderate-Bearish: 6-7% Conservative: 14-15% Bullish: 21-22% - My moderate-bearish prediction is if the "bears" are right and we see a correction in the coming 3 months along with COVID-19 complications - My conservative prediction is if trade tensions and corporate tax rate increases are in the spotlight all year, along with the depreciating dollar - My bullish prediction is if by the summer we are back to normal with the occasional hiccups throughout the year ***I'm leaning towards an 18-21% growth rate, with equal probability of below 18% and above 22% growth rates*** As always, leave a comment & a like :) also, let me know your top picks of the year!
TVC:SPXLong
by RaftoO
AUDUSD long can we see Audusd push higher?.. in my opinion, we can see more bullish momentum to the targets I have marked up aligning with the 12hr 50ema and daily 50ema. breaking down my technical analysis, you can see there has been a massive sell-off breaking some all-time lows, this has created a very overextended daily run. finally, we reached daily support, on the 4hr time frame we began seeing signs of deceleration, with the daily support being respected. there was a very respected 4hr trend line created price was also holding the 50ema, with the strong impulse break of the trend line and resistance zone & 0.6000 level. I anticipate a small pullback to 0.6000 for a further continuation.
Long
by Callum_J504
3
IT'S NOW OR NEVERHey everyone, I just want to clarify that i'm not here to discuss the fundamental future of Bitcoin (like the regulated implementation of it in the real world), but instead, show you a very simple long term understanding of where the price might take us, especially after the 3rd consecutive block reward halving that will occur in May. You may have seen a similar type of analysis before, but I assure you, ignoring it will only leave you with regret in the following years to come! First of, let's understand how the previous "halvings" affected the price of Bitcoin: 1st Halving - BTC goes up around 9,000% to create the new higher high. 2nd Halving - BTC goes up around 4,000% to create the new higher high. 9000/4000 gave us a 2.25 interval. Technically speaking, history within the markets tends to repeat itself. So, our estimation for next price increase (3rd halving), would have to be 4000/2.25 which would give 1,777! This is the number we should consider to determine the next bull run percentage increase from the day halving occurs. In other words, a bull run is highly anticipated. Mining Bitcoin will become more difficult and there will be less Bitcoin available in supply, which ultimately makes it more scarce. Due to this fact, the demand will be much higher to acquire Bitcoin. The biggest changes in the crypto ecosystem this time, will be the higher public awareness around bitcoin and the interest of institutional investors (hedge funds, banks, pensions, etc.) taking part within the market. Increased public awareness could also lead to a wave of FOMO (fear of missing out) buying power, which could push the Bitcoins price higher and faster. When more financial institutions begin taking big positions, it could affect bitcoin in ways investors have never seen before. Moving more into the technical side of the analysis, just pay attention to the curve line we see Bitcoin using as a respected support level. It has been respecting it from the very beginning of it's creation, and recently we bounced off the 6,500 price, which acted as the major and probably even the final level of support to acquire Bitcoin at. Looking at the chart today, we see that the curve line surpassed that level and is no longer expecting it to retest it, showing more buying pressure before halving! We also have quite an important trend line to look out for, which formed itself within the lower high and the current higher high on the 1W time frame. It gives us a better clue as to where the next profit taking levels for Bitcoin would be. So with all that being said, just note that at the moment we are exactly at the stages where you would be wanting to buy Bitcoin and hold it for a very long period of time, otherwise later would be too late. However, we are actually expecting a pullback to commence in the following weeks, which could ultimately send the price of Bitcoin to the 1st buying target at around 8,500, or the next target at 7,500, which will act as the key level of support to enter longs. Hopefully this was useful guys. Please trade at your own risk and make sure to invest only as much as you're willing to lose! Thanks.
BNC:BLXLong
by Proszi
2
3rd BNB Update and Final for todayIt already did 3rd Wave. Now it's in correction. S1)YELLOW WAVE Expecting a 5th wave to form soon if support of $12.6 stays unbroken. S2) WHITE WAVE - ABC Correction before 5th Wave IF S1 fails: Expecting a 5th wave to form on around $12 area. S3) If S2 fails - ABCDE Correction befor 5th Wave. 5th Wave might still start at about $10.7 S4) IF ALL ABOVE FAILS.... I shall make another chart :D (and also BNB crashes to $9.7) - very unlikely scenario.
by reynar
Prediction is wrong.'Prediction' is a word commonly seen on Tradingview and other places. Quite often people go, " Nice prediction! " when price moves in favour of some setup that was previously shared - and delivers profits. This use of the word or concept of prediction is wrong for a number of logical reasons. Not because I say that B will follow A, and B happens means I've predicted anything. I could also predict that the sun will rise in the East tomorrow or next year, but I doubt anybody would see value in that. I could 'predict' that if you drop an ordinary glass tumbler on a hard concrete-floor, that it would shatter. Nothing great in that either. Why? Because everybody knows about those situations. They know the probability in advance. In addition, 'value' is important in what people call prediction. Few are impressed by meaningless so-called 'predictions'. There is phenomenon of 'adventitious reinforcement' that affects many traders (unknowingly). For more on that see Predictable Peckers and similar on the net. That's not just about pigeons. People too can come to believe that their actions 'predict' what happens next, and then they behave or act in certain ways. Any rewarding outcome can be associated with a previous action and developed into a pattern. So - in trading, the seeming correct prediction reinforces a belief that the outcome was due to something in the setup that brought success. These beliefs are almost never statistically analysed and in any case, traders are not interested - which is very sad. I removed 'prediction' from my lexicon when trading. In my analyses, I focus on probabilities. Yes I use technical analysis and chart patterns. In other situations, I simply assess the trend for time momentum and price momentum , then estimate probabilities. I know that for any estimate I make which may be as low as 51% there is a reverse probability of 49%. If 60% then the reverse is 40% and so on. There is no surprise or reinforcement when my entry position is successful and delivers rewards. I predicted nothing. All I did was get the probability right on those occasions. Especially in trend-following trades the estimate of probable direction is particularly important. About 3 years ago I missed a trend following trade that was shown live because I couldn't believe how far it might go. That trade delivered a staggering 600 points. My question to the expert was, " How did you know it would go so far? " (as if he predicted it). I thought he knew the future. He just explained that he followed his strategy. But he didn't really answer the question. With more experience, I now know that he predicted nothing, for the simple reason that he was just following. Trades with predefined targets create expectations and are more prone to leading traders to a belief that they can predict. The harsh reality is that nobody owns the future and can predict anything. All humans can do is estimate probabilities.
Education
by Captain_Walker
EURNZD Trading PlanWith the dust of Brexit still settling there is much uncertainty as to the direction of the world economy, we saw a significant drop in the GBP. As the U.K stabilizes itself with the injection of £250 Billion from the Bank of England (www.independent.co.uk) coupled with the threat of other EU member states considering there own exits (France & Holland) this will lead uncertainty and may have a domino affect as suggested by Germany (www.foxnews.com). No doubt a gloomy future for the Euro hence why Economists are considering the Euro to collapse in 3-5 years (www.cnbc.com).
by TheConcierge
1