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Predictions

Not Done Yet - min target 4282 by Aug 21SPX is at the overhead resistance from June, the economic environment isn't particularly bullish so most see the risk here and avoid recommending buying - however, there is a lot of accumulation over the past few months and what I see is the overhead from June was part of this accumulation, the drop to this years low was the "spring" in wyckoff language. We are currently in the markup phase. The methods I use and visualize to some extent in the chart are my own. I use confluence with Gann and Elliot to confirm highest liklihoods and here are my expectations: - near term risk to around 4060, that will get bought up quick (astrological signs point to Aug 11 being the end of this local chop, explosive upside will continue until Aug 21 when the meteor showers conclude.. if you think this is crazy it is, but its how this works) - minimum target = 4282 (as early as 8/12 but more likely next week around Aug 16) - On condition 4282 is ran through with explosiveness and doesn't show resistance, the next target is 4331. I'm not banking on continuation past that, will need to form a corrective wave and carve out a higher low before beginning a larger wave 3 toward ATH. The corrective wave will take it to the range of 3882-3934, would unfold late august early sep.... However, there is the possibility of a squeeze (much larger than any seen in past few years) if it gets over 4331 in next couple weeks. - the squeeze doesn't have to happen obviously but decent chance looking at the short data some whales could be in trouble, if it happens here are the levels to watch: 4551 4640 4768 4827 Alternatively, if downside momentum catches here and it drops below 3945 then I would look out below to 3480-3540 Either way, big moves ahead so if you're in cash you'll miss the party.
SP:SPXLong
by JerryManders
17
Two Possible Outcomes for SPY Post July CPI Read I'd like to kick off this analysis by saying these are two potential outcomes of SPY's future price action given that market fundamentals stay largely unchanged before and after the CPI release next Wednesday, i.e., no escalation in Taiwan and no wild earnings surprises before and directly after the read (yes, I know that is a lot to assume). The expected paths I have for SPY should not be taken as an exact estimate as they are relatively rough sketches of what I believe may occur. Path 1 (Green Path): CPI comes out lower than expected. Anything less than 8.9% and markets will likely respond positively to the news, due to the idea that headline inflation has peaked. SPY will likely rally past its current zone of resistance at the 416 area and rip up to the trend resistance around the 430 area. From there I would expect a pause in bullish momentum and at least a few weeks of sideways trading. Path 2 (Red Path): CPI comes out hot again, anything north of 9.1% would likely be enough to trigger this move down. The short-term bullish momentum will dissipate, as SPY tanks down toward the previous support area around 387. From there I expect either a long spurt of sideways trading or a resurgence of bearish control in markets leading the SPY down to the critical 350 support zone . What path is more likely? Despite my bearish outlook on markets, I do not think we will see a strong CPI print for July. I would assume CPI/headline inflation will come out weaker than consensus estimates, likely in the 8.2-8.5% range. My reasoning for this prediction comes from the sharp decrease in commodity prices across the board but most notably in food and energy prices (with exception of nat gas), all of which took place in the month of July. With that said I would say Path 1 is probably the more likely of the two outcomes. Warning : Although I expect CPI to fall, I expect the core inflation rate to come out above consensus estimates. This to me- and others - will signal that inflation is becoming more embedded into the US economy. The sky-high added jobs number for July provides solid evidence that core inflation is sticky and not going anywhere anytime soon. Core inflation coming out hot will likely put a damper on any good news markets receive from a lower-than-expected CPI. With that in mind, perhaps we see neither path 1 nor path 2 play out. We may see a choppy couple of weeks of trading as markets try to digest the meaning of two very contradictory inflation prints. As always this is not financial advice. Good luck!
AMEX:SPY
by Gooby_Trades
1
XAUUSD Technical Analysis1st resistance level $1763-1769 Second resistance level $1775-1786 There was no military conflict between the US and China after the US top brass visited Taiwan and the Chinese Foreign Ministry issued a unilateral and stern statement. In line with market expectations, gold prices are expected to risk aversion decay, there is a possibility of further pullback, such as a rebound to resistance levels can try to short, need to remind us that the political events (events have not escalated to military conflict) is still not over, need to beware of the price upward impulse. Like and Share
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Super_B_XinR
1