GOOGL 2 VALIDATED CONFIRMATIONS! EXTREMELY BULLISH !!!!GOOGL, 2 VALIDATED CONFIRMATIONS!
Last week, I mentioned that I was extremely bullish on Google. In fact, I even sent a buy alert to my investment clients since Google has shown many bullish patterns and is displaying typical "pre-earnings" behavior. However, I have shared my analysis with you for free because I want us all to succeed! And if you've been following my analysis for months, you've seen for yourself that we’ve been on the right track.
Everything happens with Google after it breaks out of a channel. Whenever the price breaks a channel, we need to wait for it to reach its high and look for when the pullback will occur. In this case, after finding its high post-breakout, Google entered a candle congestion channel.
STACKED CHANNEL: A candle congestion channel can be considered a volume indecision. What do I mean by this?
The price creates a bottleneck-like pattern within a very tight channel, behaving strangely, with candles almost the same size and very close to one another. In this situation, it’s very difficult to determine which direction the price will take, and I consider it a complicated and dangerous pattern. All we can do is wait for the price to make a decision.
Once the price makes a decision, it breaks the congestion channel, forming a new high, and consequently, reaching our target zone. That’s precisely when it begins its pullback, and the next step we’re looking for is A NEW EXTREME.
I’ve marked this pattern in yellow, and I call it the N3 Pattern. This usually happens most of the time after a breakout, and we must be very attentive to the candles it produces to execute it.
An N3 pattern involves three movements:
#1 Breakout and New High
#2 Pullback and Rebound
#3 New Extreme
That simple.
Going back to the analysis, we’ve reached our next stop with double confirmation.
In conclusion, I remain very bullish on Google, especially as we are just a few weeks away from Google announcing its earnings report. So, if you're considering entering, whether for a swing trade or long-term, there's still time.
Remember that, based on my valuation and fundamentals, Google has an intrinsic value of $180, so the final decision is yours.
OF COURSE… This is not financial advice, and you make your own decisions and take your own risks.
Thank you for you support :)
Preearningsrun
Pre-earnings Run PatternBellwether of the ETF industry, NYSE:BLK reports Oct 11th and has already had a pre-earnings run. It is important to prepare ahead of earnings runs, which form 2-4 weeks ahead of the earnings release date. Dark Pools already know most of what is in the report. The long reversal tail candlestick signaled the probable run for a swing-style trade.
BB set up for a move higher pre-earnings LONGBB on the 15 minute chart has earnings in three weeks. Price has been meandering sideways
for two weeks after some significant volatility in mid-May. I believe it is now due for a change
of phase/cycle as the earnings approach. I will place a long trade here targeting initially 3.10
just below a significant level to the left being the consolidations before and after the
volatility of mid-May. These is the likely level where traders will again make trades in BB.
The upcoming earnings should add some extra volatility into the price action which could
translate into profit.
RTX a defense contractor large cap LONGRTX has earnings on April 23rd. It has been on a good trend higher since the last earnings. The
Russian war means US defense contractors will be in a growth mode for the intermediate
future. Depleted stores of weapons systems need to be replenished. Pieces and parts are
needed for damaged systems in need of maintenance. I see RTX and others such as GD and
LMT as good long-term trades or investments. Smaller companies in the areas of robotics and
drones may be worth a look. RTX is at its all-time high but it seems much higher is in its future.
ALPN and VRTX may merge surge of bullish momentum LONGAlpine is a biotech stock that had an earnings report beating estimates two weeks ago. It
is now reaching for all-time highs. That said, it is burning cash just slowing down the burn.
Both revenue and earnings showed remarkable improvement as compared with the previous
quarter. The bullish momentum of price and volume is obvious on the weeky chart with
the print of a massive bullish engulfing candle. Another earnings report is
due in 4 weeks. In the meanwhile, the news catalyst is VRTX and ALPN may be merging.
www.tradingview.com /
I will take a risky long trade here with a stop loss at 50 and a profit first target
of 80 and the second at 90.
Can ROKU run before earnings? LONGROKU on a daily chart is sitting on support in consolidation since the trend down after the
last earnings report. In three weeks there will be another report. The prior report showed
negative earnings but it did beat the estimates while revenues were a mild surprise. I expect
ROKU has done some belt trimming to try to get expenses decreased while growing revenues.
My long trade here is from thin support but targets the Fibonacci level of a retracement
back to recent high pivots. The target is 80 representing 30% upside. A stop loss will be
initially set at 61 but then raised 3.5% every time price rises 3% to gradually tighten it.
I will take a good part of the hopeful profits off the table a few days before the upcoming
report.
LUNR a space exploation penny stock with momentum LONGLUNR got an injection of trader and investor interest this week on the news that their lunar
lander ( robotic unmanned) is launch ready. While it is a publically owned company, 50% is
insiders, 40% retail investors and 10% institutions. In is in the shadow of NASA in Houston from
whom it has drawn employees. Of particular importance last spring when there was a news
catalyst , price went to the moon into the 45 level. This time around is early in the cycle.
In February from liftoff to descent and landing took two weeks. Volumes topped out at 7M
shares per day. Current volume is about 760K. Price was flat in the Friday after-hours trading
on expected diminished trading. I expect LUNR to be actively traded until the news starts
getting old. After that, the 50% insiders some of what are just rank and file employees
but some of which are executive types with larger share quantities may find away to augment
the news cycle. My stop loss is 5 at the Friday afternoon low pivot. My target is near to the
head and shoulders of the February high pivot. I especially note a 425% earnings beat ( they
only burned 20% of the cash burning projection set by the analysts. Earnings is soon to arrive.
This could turn out to be a Tim Sykes' "supernova" with news digestion associated momentum
synergized with another earnings beat ( the earnings is probably all grants from NASA and the
Pentagon). I assert this could turn out to a a great trade.
CLSK a crypto miner reports February 8th LONGCLSK is tied to the ebbs and tides of the crypto market especially high market cap Bitcoin.
On the 120-minute chart, it is trending up from a reversal. The 0.5 Fib level is above at 10.0
about 10% upside from the current price. Earnings are February 8th. The last earnings saw a big
turnaround as CLSK started to make money. Price is currently about 90% below all-time highs.
The recent surge in Bitcoin albeit with a partial pullback afterward has likely benefited
CleanSpark. I see this as a short-term swing pre-earnings play that could gain big or
drop with an earnings miss. I will set a stop loss to protect against the latter. Today's price
action and the indicators are reassurance in the risk taken.
Nutrix Therapeutics ( NRIX) has momentum for earnings LONGNRIX , on the 15 minute chart is experiencing increase volatility and volume now two
days out from its earnings report. It printed a "big ass" green engulfing candle to finish the
week. The MACD with zero lag shows a bullish inflection in the lines
On the daily chart, price fell about 25% in 2023. earnings have been both line beats but
the negative cash flow remains as a challenge. The volume and volatility show both are
heightened in the pre-earnings run- up. . This is a risky earnings
play, NRIX does not yet make money like many other young biotechnology companies trying to
grow However, because it lost less than forecasted, buyer interest has increased. There is
an absence of any options volume and so illiquidity prevents consideration of options
trading. I suspect a long trade in shares may gain to $14 targeting the pivot highs of
April 23 and November 22 for projected gain upside of about 65% ( stop loss of 2.5%)
If earnings disappoint trader expectations and price fades I will stop out with a loss of about
2.5% This makes this long swing trade a projected 2.5 /65 a R:r of 25 which validates it as
a conservative trade if taking only 5% or less of buyer power applied to the risk. Biotechnology
is expected to be one of the hottest subsectors of 2024. This could be one of them.
NCLH - Can this travel /cruise stock rise into earnings. LONGThe cruise line subsector is surging. Apparently Royal Carribean is doing better than Norweigan
but both a having a busy 20214. Earnings are around the corner. On the 60 minute chart
the lower anchored VWAP bands are all trending down as is price overall. Of late from
underneather price has tested the mean VWAP line and than did a test of resistance at
the first lower VWAP bandline where it still sits at the underside. The "Next Pivot" AI indicator
suggests a hard uptrend heading into earnings. The RSI indicator shows both fast and slow
lines under the 50 level. Based on everything here knowing earnings are coming ;they likely
will be good with the AI indictor predicting a 7-8% jump in the run up to earnings.
I am fairly smart but well aware not so much compared with the predictive modeling of
an AI indicator with its lookback and pattern matching routines. I will take a long trade
here confident that the risk has been somewhat mitigated by an AI indicator, industry trending
and the chart itself.
QS rising into earnings has shown momentumon the 15- minute gaining 4.6% in the Monday trading. The chart shows price crossing through
the high volume area from underneath it on Tuesday Feb 6th the breaking out from the upper
boundary with a retest the following two mornings and then separation from the high volume
area after that. Trading volumes have been consistent and constant with spikes after the
morning opens. QS has some attention as both a technology stock and a green energy penny
stock. I see this long trade as having a potential to go 10-15% if it beats the earnings forecasts.
The dual time frame RSI indicator is used to pinpoint best entries especially if scalping or
options trading. The best entry is on a lower time frame 3-5 minutes and the green faster RSI
crossing over the slower red line and both being over the 50 level. Good luck to traders
that take this trade.
SHOP solid growth and strength into earningsOn the 4H chart SHOP has been trending up since last fall when it fell through the high volume
area and then rebounded crossing through it and rebounding. Earnings have been solid beats
for over a year. Volume is persistent and steady while the relative strength rising from a bounce
down to the 50 level to begin this month. This is a solid earnings play but also could be
a long term investment but not until there is another dip or minor correction to set up for
a low risk entry. Last earnings gave SHOP about $10-12 in a quick price pop. I am looking
for something in the range of $6-8 higher as a conservative target
CHEF rises in price and volume for earnings LONGChef's Warehouse reports in two days. This is a slow grind it out type of stock. In the past week
volume spiking is seen on the indicator with the blue bars pointing out aberrancies in volume
otherwise called spikes. On the volume profile, CHEF fell down and out of the high volume
area of the profile for much of February but on Thursday the 8th re-entered it and pass through
it and breaking above it all in the same day. This is a rather explosive reversal pattern.
Price has maintain itself above the area in the past two trading session. The past week saw
more than a 6% rise for CHEF. This trade is best suited for investors, patient swing traders
or those trading options. This is not an intraday stock trade.
ROIV - BioTech reporting 2/13 as a LONG earnings tradeRoivant Scientes, on the 15 minute chart is experiencing increase volatility and volume now two
days out from its earnings report. The MACD with zero lag shows a bullish inflection in the lines
On the daily chart, ROIV gained 38% in 2023 but has been down 4 %YTD. The volume and
volatility show both are heightened in the pre-earnings run- up. The last report in November
was a double beat which is good prognosis for the one upcomings. This is a risky earnings
play, ROIV does not yet make money. However, because it lost less than forecasted, buyer
interest has increased. The call option for 2/16 for a strike of $12.50 is priced at $ 5.00
per contract. I suspect a long trade in shares may gain to $ 11.50 targeting the double top
at the turn of the year for a projected gain upside of about 7% (with a stop loss of 2.5%).
Considering that ROIV has gained 12% this past week, 7% in the next two days is about the
same trend angle. As to the call contract, I have considered 100% return as my expections
for the two days before the earnings. If earnings disappoint trader expectations and price fades
I will sell to close the contract. If earnings is as expected, I will roll the contract forward into
the March monthly and add a bit more capital into the trade.
CDNS a chip design software company LONGCDNS located in California is a software firm supporting computer assisted design ( ACAD) for
the semi-conductor industry. While its customer base gets the headlines, this company helps
make it happen. The 120 minute chart looks good as price is uptrending with good volume
and relative strength. Earnings have been solid and another is around the corner. Price has
appreciated 40% in six months. the trend angle of 13 degrees over the continuous uptrend
is solid. I see this as a buy now before the earnings or after a minor correction to get a bit of
a discount.
Groupon is pushing into earnings LONGGRPN on the 15 minute chart here with a volume profile overlaid hada high volume area
breakout from mid December to mid January but then retraced and broke down. It
consolidated for one week about the POC line gained some accumulation and then moved
back up again. It broke above the high volume area on January 25th then retested it with
a light touch on Feb 5th getting support in the rejection. The relative volume has picked
up consistent with Wychoff theory ( this is not a fakeout). I see this as an excellent long
trade through the upcomng earnings. The dual time frame RSI indicator can be useful to
gauge strength minute by minute and so pinpoint entries and exits.
RDFN fintech penny stock pre-earnings LONGOn the RDFN shows the trend up after a massive earnings beat and then the fade down into
this past week. Price is presently situated at the 0.5 Fib level of the retracement of that
trend up. Time is presently at the 0.38 Fib time zone extending from the trend up.
The dual TF RSI shows the lines jumping over the 50 level in the past couple of days.
The ADX indicator shows the ADX+ crossing over ADX- with the ADX+ now over the 20 threshold.
I see RDFN as set for a pre-earnings momentum trade and will also take call options for
the Feb 16 expiration the day after the report ( Striking $8 & 8.5). Of interest, a rate cut
may be getting baked into RDFN.
DLTR reverses up on pre-earnings move LONGDLTR has earnings in 3-4 trading days. On the 30 minute chart it has been sideways
and maybe a little down for this past week which is par for the course given the
general market. In the last trading day, price bounced up from the lower of
the two Bollinger band set at 2.618 standard deviations below the mean basis
band. The ZL MACD lines are upgoing and crossed over the zero-line. The
ADX lines both negative direction and positive direction are flat and ad the zero
level. The BB Oscillator demonstrates the bounce at the Friday morning open.
I will take a long trade in DLTR in the next three days anticipating that trader
interest and a little greed will push the price higher. I may take a call option as
well. If you want to know which call I may have an interest in taking, please leave
a comment.
NKTR High Tight Flag- Pre-Earnings High Flyer LONGNKTR is due for earnings on August 8th. The price from the opening bell on the 7th
pump nearly 100% to over $1.00 and then faded by a couple of cents.
The Price Momentum Oscillator and ZL MACD indicators tracked the high velocity
action into a high tight type bull falg which is often considered to be predictive
of another leg up of similar magnitude. I will be watching this in the premarket
upcoming and also at the report of earnings. I hope to catch a decent ride.
If I do get it I will quit the ride as soon as the indicators flip signals. This could
be a good one. Buyer anticipation and sentiment could yield great profit in little
time the money is exposed to the market.
AADI - NASDAQ PENNY Biotech pre-earnings LONGAADI has earnings in two day. On the 30 minute chart, it is significantly below the highs of May
and June where it was in a wide ranged consolidation. After that in July price trended down
along the support of the second lower VWAP line into a reversal on August 1 shich also
ascended the VWAP lines. Upcoming earnings are in two days on the 9th. Prior two
earning reports lightly beat the top and bottom lines. This small biotechnology company
is making money unlike many of its cash-burning peers. The zero-lag MAC shows a line
cross under the histogram which flipped red to green as the lines rise. With this confirmation,
I will take a long trade into the earnings. There is no alternative in a call option in this case.
From the chart, targets are 6.9, 6.9, and 8.0 over a stop loss of 5.45. I expect this trade to be
finished in 4 days or less.
MRNA a medical Technology Stock LONG MRNA is a medical technology company. It is in the vaccine sector and competes ( well) with
NVAX and PFE among others. Earnings are upcoming on 8/3 in about a week.
On the 30 minute chart it appears to be in a descending wedge pattern which is typically
a bottoming with a breakout over and beyond the descending trendline. The relative
trend indicator shows the downtrend to be a slow grinding type trend with some minor
corrections along the way. As might be expected the RS lines are low in the indicator's
channel. I see this as a setup for a pre-earnings play with the expectation that MRNA
could breakout above the resistance trend line and move toward the horizontal resistance
of the triple top earlier in mid-July. I see medical stocks as a good alternative to technology
stocks that may be overextended and stressed by the current financial chaos pressuring
the markets. Another approach is a two call options targeting $ 125 expiring 8/11
and running the first until 100% profit or 8/2, the day before the expiration whichever
comes first and letting the other run through earnings into the middle of the following
week at 8/9. I always like to cut these short of expiration by a few days to diminish the
effects of time decay.
UAL United Airlines Pre Earnings LONGUAL has been in a persistent trend up for a couple of months after great earnings were reported
in early May with another due on July 19th. The airports have been quite busy with vacation
travel and UAL has been part of that action. On the 1H chart, price has been supported by
the mean VWAP and has oscillated to the one standard deviation line above that. I see a target
as 56.80 where the the second deviation lines above the mean aVWAP while placing a stop loss
just under the blue line of one STD above VWAP. The price is below the POC line of the volume
profile which should act as a magnet pulling the price higher. The MACD indicator shows 4
the lines in parallel and above the zero horizontal line with a positive histogram. The relative
volatility indicator shows sufficient volatility to support momentum trading.
I will take a long trade going into earnings. I will do this with ten call options contracts
with a strike at $57 expiring on July 21st. On the last trading day, this contract had
a low of $ 0.95 and a high of $1.32 for a range of 35% in a single day. I expect similar
price action as the earnings date approaches. I expect to pay about $1320 for ten contracts
and the profit expectation is 100% over the next 10 trading days.
DIS Pre-Earnings RunDisney is in the retail news a lot these days but the chart has a pre-earnings run in anticipation that Year over Year financials will look a lot better than it did most of 2022. This stock has been as high as $200 a share so it has plenty of room to continue upward.
HOWEVER, it is over-speculated right now so profit-taking on the earnings release, good or bad, and probably a gap, are highly likely.
This is WHY earnings strategies for swing traders require that you prepare 2-4 weeks in advance so that you're already in the stock ahead of the earnings report. There are smaller funds and retail groups in the mix at this point.