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Opening (IRA): SPX May 16th 5130/5160/5850/5880 Iron Condor... for a 10.20 credit. Comments: High IVR/IV >21. Hesitant to add more long delta here, so going delta neutral in SPX and structuring the trade such that I receive one-third the width of the wings (30) in credit. Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 19.80 Max Profit: 10.20 ROC at Max: 51.52% 50% Max: 5.10 ROC at 50% Max: 25.8% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, rolling down oppositional side on side test, but won't hesitate to take profit quickly if IV crushes in dramatically post "Liberation Day."
SP:SPX
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): IWM May 16th 190/195/220/225 Iron Condor... for a 1.70 credit. Comments: I think I have more than enough long delta on at the moment, so opting to go nondirectional/delta neutral here. Selling the 25's and buying the wings out from there, collecting one-third the width of the wings in credit. Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 3.30 Max Profit: 1.70 ROC at Max: 51.5% 50% Max: .85 ROC at 50% Max: 25.8% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll in oppositional side on side test.
AMEX:IWM
by NaughtyPines
NAS100USD: Retracement to Target Sell Stops Below Support ZoneGreetings Traders, In today’s analysis on NAS100USD, while the market is currently showing bullish momentum, there are clear signs that we may experience a retracement toward the downside. This move would likely target the discount sell stops below the illustrated support zone, providing an opportunity to align with institutional order flow. KEY OBSERVATIONS: Institutional Resistance Zone: A strong order block has formed, creating a significant resistance level that price may struggle to break through. This order block, coupled with the Fair Value Gap (FVG) beneath it, strengthens the bearish case. These two institutional resistance zones suggest a higher likelihood of a retracement. Premium Price Zone: Price is currently trading in a premium range, a favorable area to monitor for potential selling opportunities upon confirmation. Liquidity Target : Our primary target is the discount sell stops resting below an engineered support zone. This zone is a key draw on liquidity, where we anticipate significant institutional interest. TRADING PLAN: Entry Strategy : Wait for confirmation before entering short positions at the current premium price level. Targets : Focus on the liquidity pools below the support zone, particularly the discount sell stops, as these represent the main draw on liquidity. Patience and precision are crucial. By following institutional clues, we can effectively position ourselves for high-probability trades. Happy Trading! The Architect 🏛📊
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by The_Archi-tect
1
NAS100USD: CPI Volatility & Institutional Continuation Sell-OffGreetings Traders, In today’s analysis on NAS100USD, we observe that the market remains bearish following a significant CPI news release. This high-impact event resulted in a sharp bearish displacement, reinforcing the ongoing bearish narrative. Yesterday, I shared an analysis predicting this continued bearishness. For those interested, you’ll find that analysis attached at the end of this description for deeper context. KEY OBSERVATIONS: CPI-Induced Displacement : The CPI release triggered a large downward move, forming a massive single candle that left behind a noticeable inefficiency—a Fair Value Gap (FVG). Liquidity Grab & Fair Valuation: After sell stops were taken, price retraced to fill the FVG, restoring fair valuation. This retracement fully closed the gap, confirming a continuation of bearish order flow. Premium Price Zone: We are currently in a deep premium price range, which aligns with institutional distribution zones. These areas offer excellent opportunities for confirmation-based sell entries. TRADING PLAN: Entry Strategy: Look for confirmation at the current premium price level before entering short positions. Targets: Focus on discount liquidity pools at lower prices, as these are the areas institutions will likely target to take profits. By following the institutional flow, we align ourselves with smart money practices, improving our precision and probability of success. Stay patient and disciplined—confirmation is key! For more context, here’s yesterday’s analysis below. Happy Trading! The Architect 🏛📊
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by The_Archi-tect
4
Opening (IRA): TSLA March 21st 330/335/465/470 IC*... for a 1.70 credit. Comments: Post-earnings, IV remains fairly decent here at 57.3. Selling the -20 delta short option legs and buying the wings out from there. Basically, just doing small stuff while I wait for other stuff to play out. Metrics: Max Profit: 1.70 Buying Power Effect: 3.30 ROC at Max: 51.2% 50% Max: .85 ROC at 50% Max: 25.8% Delta/Theta: .95/2.24 Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, consider doing a delta adjustment when the delta/theta ratio skews out to >2.0. * -- Iron Condor.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): SMH February 21st 195/220/270/295 Iron Condor... for a 3.91 credit. Comments: Back into the semiconductor ETF, where I don't have a position on currently. Going comparatively low delta, with the short options camped out at the 17 delta on both sides and the wings about 1/10th the price of the underlying in width. Metrics: Max Profit: 3.91 Buying Power Effect: 21.09 ROC at Max: 18.54% 50% Max: 1.96 ROC at 50% Max: 9.27% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll untested side in toward current price on side test.
NASDAQ:SMH
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): MSTR 2x225/2x240/460/490 Iron Condor... for a 7.00 credit. Comments: IV remains high here at 112.4%. Going "double double" (put spread half the width of the call spread, but 2 x the number of contracts) to accommodate skew. Earnings are on 2/4, so will probably want to get out before then. Metrics: Max Profit: 7.00 Buying Power Effect: 23.00 ROC at Max: 30.43% 50% Max: 3.50 ROC at 50% Max: 15.22% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll in untested side on side test to about half the delta of the tested side. Given earnings on the horizon, will naturally just money/take/run for less if presented with the opportunity.
NASDAQ:MSTR
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): TAN Jan 17th 33 Short Put... for a 1.01 credit. Comments: Adding to my TAN position at a strike/break even better than what I currently have on. Here, going Plain Jane short put, since there isn't a great advantage to going monied covered call here because the IV skew isn't between the call and put sides isn't significant. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 31.99 Max Profit: 1.01 ROC at Max: 3.16% 50% Max: .52 ROC at 50% Max: 1.58% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max.
AMEX:TANLong
by NaughtyPines
NAS100USD: Is Bearish Control Taking Over?Greetings Traders! While NAS100USD remains bullish, I see signs of a potential bearish shift for several reasons identified on the chart. Most notably, price has been rejecting a Rejection Block, a significant institutional resistance zone. This rejection has resulted in strong downside displacement, signaling that institutional interest may now lean bearish. Retail vs. Institutional Resistance Institutional Resistance: Price has retraced into heavy premium levels, ideal for selling opportunities (sell in premium, buy in discount). A key difference with institutional resistance lies in its foundation on Rejection Blocks. These order blocks, formed at market turning points, are characterized by large wicks relative to candle closures. They indicate that institutions or smart money entered substantial sell orders, giving confidence to anticipate bearish price action. Retail Resistance: In contrast, retail resistance often serves as engineered liquidity. Here, banks and institutions create the illusion of a resistance zone to entice retail traders into taking trades. These zones, strategically placed at premium levels, enable institutions to sell against retail positions. Understanding this manipulation is critical for aligning with institutional order flow. Trading Plan Confirmation Zone: Monitor price action at the Rejection Block and premium levels for bearish confirmation. Targets: Fair Value: The 50% retracement of the leg. Liquidity Pool: The downside liquidity resting below current levels. Discussion and Insights If you have questions, analysis, or insights, feel free to share them in the comment section. Let’s collaborate, learn, and grow as traders! Kind regards, The_Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by The_Archi-tect
2
Opening (IRA): MSTR Dec 20th 75/155 Short Put Vertical... for a 5.43 credit. Comments: High IVR/IV at 61.1/113.9. Doing something a little different here, selling the 10 delta short put and buying a put that cuts BPE in about half over doing a naked. Going low delta because, well, the underlying kind of scares the poo out of me. Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 74.57 Max Profit: 5.43 ROC at Max: 7.28% 50% Max: 2.72 ROC at 50% Max: 3.64 Compare: Dec 20th 155 Short Put (Cash Secured) BPE: 148.30 Max Profit: 6.65 ROC at Max: 4.48% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by NaughtyPines