Premiumselling
Theta Machine I'm starting a new position into some tickers to use THETA as our main income generator:.
The goal is 30% return/year
Sell Puts Delta 5/10/15
55/45/ 40 DTE
Trades/Day = +6
Trades/Week = +30
Trade/Year = +1560
Credit/Trade = +$110.00
Book Size = 3.53%
Book Wipe Risk = 7.06%
Black Sawn Risk = 49.45%
PCR = 35%
Avg DIT = 15
Delta/Theta Ratio = 0.5 (hard to keep it)
Theta/ Vega Ratio = +0.2
Profit = 60%
Loss = -200%
Theta Machine - 12/07/2022THETA MACHINE UPDATE
No New Trades Today
I want VIX and IV to go higher so we can collect extra premium...if not tomorrow, by Friday I will increase the cost basis to +500, and Theta will be around $150/day.
Overall POP = 84%
POP = Probability of Profit
*Next Week volatility can spike as we will have CPI (Dec 12) and FED (Dec 13).
With that said, I will probably hedge with Micro Futures.
*Quick TIP if you want to hedge your portfolio>
+50 Delta = 1 /MES (Micro)
+500 Delta = 1 /ES (Mini)
My Delta Beta Weight now is around 100, so In order to hedge I need to Sell 2 Micro Futures (2x /MES)
Rolling (Margin): XOP Dec 16th 127C/147P to Jan 20th 130C/147P... for a 3.67 credit.
Comments: Rolling for a realized gain with this down move. There was no 127 strike, so rolled the short call to the 130 and the short put "as is." Total credits collected of 28.47 on a 17 wide inverted. Resulting delta/theta -38.14/15.30 with 13.43 of extrinsic, so I'm indicating here that it's a "short" position.
Still looking at this for tax loss harvest, but wanted to give it an additional chance running into year's end to make something of itself.
Opening (Margin): /CL February 15th 40 Short Put... for a 1.70 credit.
Comments: Taking a small, far out-of-the-money trade on weakness here, targeting the strike paying around 10% of buying power effect in credit. 1.70 credit on BPE of 16.32; 10.4% ROC at max; 5.2% ROC at 50% max as a function of buying power effect.
Opening (IRA): SPY June 16th 230 Short Put... for a 2.31 credit.
Comments: Part of a longer-dated strategy in SPY targeting the <16 strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market. Will generally look to roll at 50% max, whenever that occurs.
Naturally, I'll deploy into shorter duration if we get weakness plus a higher implied volatility environment.
Opened (Margin): /ES February 17th 2200 Short Put... for a 3.20 credit.
Comments: SPAN margin lets you do weird things on occasion. Added this rung nearly buying power free Thursday night, probably because the SPAN margin calculation evaluated the risk of this addition and thought that it increased my "holistic" or "global" risk only marginally (the BPE was < the credit received).
Opening (IRA): SPY March 17th 280 Short Put... for a 2.81 credit.
Comments: Part of a longer-dated premium selling strategy in broad market to keep theta on and burning while I wait for shorter duration to be more productive. Targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. Will generally look to roll either intraexpiry or for duration at 50% max.
I'm also looking to attempt to remain more maximally deployed, which can be difficult if you're going to do things primarily this way versus some mix of long stock positions (which tie up oodles of buying power) with premium selling positions as an add-on or as an acquisitional approach (i.e., short put, acquire, cover). One way to look at these longer-dated positions is that they're small stock positions (which people are generally more comfortable with holding for extended periods of time), even though they differ in one fundamental way, and that's they're dynamic (as opposed to being static delta, as stock would be).
Additionally, the ROC as a function of buying power effect (annualized or otherwise) isn't exactly fabulous out of the box, which is why you'll want to roll these at 50% max to collect additional credit (without extending duration if you can) to bring in more of "the fabulous."