Opening (IRA): TSLA April 19th 155 Monied Covered Call... for a 148.83 debit.
Comments: Buying a one lot and selling a -78 delta call against to emulate a +22 delta short put, while taking some advantage of IV skew to the call side (54.32% at the 155 call versus 46.24% at the same put strike).
Max profit of 6.17 on BPE of 148.83; 4.15% ROC at max; 2.07% at 50% max.
It is entirely possible that I will regret this later ... .
Premiumselling
Opened: KRE March 15th 39/44/50/55 Iron Condor... for a 1.68 credit.
Comments: ETF IV > 35% with 30-day IV at 37.9%.
Collecting 1/3rd the width of the wings of a 5-wide; 1.68 credit on BPE of 3.32; 50.6% ROC at max; 25.3% at 50% max.
It was kind of a toss-up between doing this as an iron fly or as an iron condor due to the size of the underlying, so compromised, going in somewhat aggressively with the short option legs (they're camped out at the 30 delta). This will allow me to adjust the setup somewhat before having to go inverted with the short strangle aspect (now I've jinxed it).
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; adjust sides on side test.
Opening (IRA): SPY May 17th 448 Short Put... for a 4.75 credit.
Comments: Targeting the May option paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. This ends up being a little more aggressive from a delta standpoint than I usually go (~20 delta), but that's okay as I start to build up a position over time ... .
Naturally, weakness/higher IV would be better, but you can't have everything.
Opened: AMD March 15th 145/155/210/220 Iron Condor... for a 3.33 credit.
Comments: High IVR/IV (104.5/60.1) earnings announcement play.
3.33 credit on buying power effect of 6.67; 49.9% ROC at max; 25.0% at 50% max. Delta/theta 2.68/4.65.
So, far TSLA earnings was a small loser; the jury's still out on NFLX (but it's underwater) ... . Third time's the charm?
Opening: TSLA Feb 16th 180/190/230/240 Iron Condor... for a 3.55 credit.
Comments: Earnings announcement volatility contraction play.
I ordinarily put these on right before earnings, but will probably space it out, so am putting it on today. Earnings will be announced on Wednesday, 1/24, after market close.
Here, selling the 25 delta short option strikes and buying longs 10 strikes out from the shorts, resulting in 10 wide wings on which I've collected more than 1/3rd the width of the wings in credit, as well as a net delta setup that's about as delta neutral as you can get.
I'm using the next available monthly here so that I've got a little time to manage the setup in the event that that the move is bigger than the options market is anticipating here (around +/- 19 handles, which would be around 225 on the call side, 190 on the put, given current price). The basic notion here is that (a) TSLA IV contracts post-earnings; and (b) it stays within the expected move.
The Metrics: 3.55 credit on buying power effect of 6.45; 55.04% ROC at max; 27.52% at 50% max; delta/theta 1.00/8.02; 186.45/233.55 break evens. Since this is a defined risk setup, the BPE is the same regardless of whether you set it up in cash secured account like an IRA or on margin.
XAU/USD ↘️ Short Trade setup ↘️Hello Everyone 🙋🏽♂️
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Opening: XBI Jan '25 77 Covered CallComments: This started out as an October 20th 76 short put (See Post Below) and then proceeded to crater quite massively, resulting in early, random assignment of shares. In an attempt to get my cost basis immediately within earshot of where the underlying is currently trading, I went extremely long-dated and sold the Jan '25 77 for 7.05 against my one lot, resulting in a cost basis of my original short put strike at 76 minus the 7.05 I received for the short call or 68.95 relative to today's closing price of 67.07.
The Jan '25 77 short call finished the day at around 43 delta, and -- as with all my covered calls, I'll look to roll out the short call at intervals, with an eye toward keeping the short call at or above the 30 delta and/or leaving it alone if price pops back above my break even.
Unfortunately, the position becomes somewhat "dead money" for a bit since the current next available expiries to roll to are limited to June '25, Dec '25, and Jan '26 (although I can certainly roll down intraexpiry if push comes to shove).
Rolling (IRA): TLT Nov 17th 92 to March 15th 92 Short Put... for a .97 credit.
Comments: Alas, this could not be meaningfully strike improved, so just rolling it out as is. The deeper the in-the-money it is, the farther out in time you have to go to get paid something decent ... . Collected .79 originally (See Post Below) plus the .97 here for a total of 1.76.
Rolling (IRA): TLT Nov 17th 94 to April 19th 94 Short Put... for an .85 credit.
Comments: Another that can't be meaningfully strike improved without paying a debit ... . Collected .75 originally (See Post Below). With the .85 here, 1.60 total.
And that ... ends the November contract housekeeping portion of our show. Unfortunately, I'll probably have to do some more of this in the December contract (ugh).
Opening (IRA): SPY April 19th 415 Short Put... for a 4.47 credit.
Comments: Had to go out to April here to get paid what I'm looking for, which is no surprise with VIX at 52-week lows.
Targeting the shortest duration <16 delta put paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market. Will naturally look to add in shorter duration should we get a sell-off and/or up-tick in IV that makes that worthwhile.
Opening: SAVE January 19th 10 Covered Call... for an 8.15 debit.
Comments: The IV in here is redonk (IVR 96/IV 238.6%), no doubt because the merger decision between SAVE and JBLU is in a court room, with the trial scheduled to finish up at year end and a ruling to follow thereafter. At the moment, the buyout proposal is for $33.50/share and/or a $29.80 "Deal-Through Price." While most are probably trying to arbitrage SAVE for the difference between current price and the potential buy-out amount, I'm looking to make money even if the buyout doesn't go through with a cost basis below SAVE's 52-week low and/or the judge takes a bit of time to mull over whether to impose conditions on the buy out (at which point I hope to be out of the trade).
Naturally, if the deal does go through, and price jumps to the buyout price, I'll be pissed that I didn't go just Plain Jane long call ... .
Metrics:
Max Profit: 1.85 ($185)/contract
Buying Power Effect: 8.15 ($815)/contract
ROC as a function of BPE at Max: 22.7%
ROC at 50% max: 11.3%
Opening: RIOT January 19th 8/15/15/22 Iron Fly... for a 3.60 credit.
Comments: High IV/IVR (115.3%/36.3%). Looking for this to "behave" between the 11.40 and 18.60 break evens for a few weeks ... .
Metrics:
Max Profit: 3.60 ($360)/contract
Profit at 25% Max: .90 ($90)
Buying Power Effect: 3.40 ($340)/contract
ROC as a Function of Buying Power Effect at 25% Max: 26.5%
Break Evens: 11.40/18.60
Delta/Theta: 4.17/2.05
Opening (IRA): QQQ March 15th 348 Short Put... for a 3.51 credit.
Comments: Targeting the shortest duration <16 delta put paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market. Will naturally look to add in shorter duration should we get a sell-off and/or up-tick in IV that makes that worthwhile.
Opening (IRA): IWM April 19th 165 Short Put... for a 2.10 credit.
Comments: Starting to erect rungs in the second quarter (April, May, June). QQQ doesn't have an April yet, and I already have a SPY rung on out in that contract, so just doing the small caps here. Targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit.
I'll naturally look to add in shorter duration should we get a bump in IV, but may have to dabble outside the broad market (IWM, QQQ, SPY) box to get paid something decent in shorter duration.
Opening (IRA): IWM March 15th 161 Short Put... for a 1.66 credit.
Comments: Targeting the shortest duration <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market. I'll naturally look to add rungs in shorter duration if we get a sell-off/pop in IV.
Opening (IRA): TLT December 29th 90 Short Put... for a 1.20 credit.
Comments: Adding a rung out in the Dec 29th expiry at a strike better than what I currently have on.
Since I'm in an acquisitional frame of mind with TLT, I'm pretty much going to run with these until they're approaching worthless (i.e., <.05). If I get assigned, I'll proceed to sell call against.
Rolling (IRA): TLT November 3rd 88 Short Put to January 19th 87... for a .42 credit.
Comments: Received an .88 credit for the 88 (See Post Below); rolling it down and out for a .42 credit. Total credits collected of 1.30.
If I'm going to get assigned, lower is naturally better, even if it's only a strike ... .