Price-action-trading
Forecast: Short opportunity for EURCHF next week.Price for EURCHF has been trading in a range for some time. Now, price is at resistance and a high volatility two bar resistance has formed. This is very significant. I think it will push price downwards to the next support. Whatever happens after that support is left to the market. I expect few pips from this short trade. Somewhat like 50 pips.
Forecast: Short opportunity on EURUSD next weekThis is a eurusd short opportunity for the coming week of trading. I see exhaustion of the bullish trend at the resistance and this is followed by a three bar reversal with momentum and volatility. That means price will most probably reverse. But since the pair is trading in a range, the fall in price would be like 100 pips or less.
XAUUSD GOLD HEADING UPWARDS? You can see the good supports level and resistance
levels in this picture.
Right now gold bounce from this levels
My target is 1800 level.
Trading Engulfing bars or Outside barsDefinition: An engulfing bar is a bar whose trading range totally encompasses or engulfs that of its predecessor such that it has a higher high and lower low. They develop after both down- and uptrends and represent exhaustion. They could be bullish engulfing bars which close higher than the open, or bearish engulfing bars which close lower than the open. A bullish engulfing bar forms at bottoms while a bearish engulfing bar forms at tops. Below is a gold chart illustrating a bullish engulfing bar. Notice how it has a higher high and lower low.
Determining the significance of engulfing bars: The following factors are used to determine the significance of an engulfing bar. If at least 3 points are satisfied, I consider the setup a high probability one.
1. The wider the engulfing bar is relative to the preceding ones, the stronger the signal: This arises from that fact that the engulfing bar or outside bar is supposed to reflect a change in the balance between buyers and sellers.
2. The sharper the trend preceding the engulfing bar, the more significant the bar: This is because the engulfing bar represents change, therefore there must be something to change. Therefore, the stronger the preceding trend, the stronger the implied sentiment dominating that trend.
3. The more bars encompassed, the better the signal: In most situation, only one bar is encompassed. However, when it encompasses several bars, the signal that the balance has shifted from buyers to sellers at a top, or from sellers to buyers at a bottom, becomes that much stronger. The encompassed bars become a small price pattern in themselves.
4. The nearer the price closes to the extreme point of the bar that is away from the direction of the previous trend, the better: For example, if the previous trend was down and the price closes near the high, this is more favorable than if it closes near the low, and vice versa. This is because the engulfing bar is supposed to signal a reversal in the sentiment and a change in trend. The fact that the closing in this example develops near the high emphasizes the strength of the buyers, thereby adding to the validity of the signal. Note: If the close develops near the high in a rising trend or near the low in a falling trend, then the engulfing bar is not consistent with a change in psychology. In this case, it has become a consolidation, and not a reversal pattern. Notice the same gold chart that had a huge rally. See how it closed near its high.
5. The engulfing candle should be of the opposite color from the candle it engulfs.
An important question to ask yourself when considering any bar pattern is: “What is the price action of this bar telling me about the underlying psychology?”
Note: Not all engulfing patterns result in a reversal in trend. Some, for example, may be followed by a change in trend which can be seen after a pullback as price consolidates or has a correction. In this case, the engulfing pattern becomes a continuation pattern.
Sometimes, after an engulfing bar is signaled, price can do a retracement before continuing in the direction indicated by the engulfing bar. This usually gives low risk and higher risk:reward ratio but this occasions are rare and if the retracement is more than 50%, then it is a case for concern.
How to trade engulfing bars: Use pending orders.
1. Place a pending order a few pips above the high of the bullish engulfing bar and a few pips below the low of a bearish engulfing bar.
2. Stop Loss (SL) is safely a few pips beyond the opposite end of the engulfing bar. That means, if a bullish engulfing bar, a few pips below the low of the bar, and if bearish engulfing bar, a few pips above the high of the bar. This strategy gives the trade room to breathe.
3. The take profit (TP) should be on the next key level of support and resistance, or when a candlestick reversal pattern opposing the position is found.
Example 1: Where to set entry parameters for a bullish engulfing bar.
Example: Where to set entry parameters for a bearish engulfing bar.
Short opportunity on AUDJPY with bearish engulfing barA bearish engulfing bar has formed at the resistance of the AUDJPY on 4Hr. The bearish engulfing pattern has momentum behind it as it is reversing a sharp uptrend that shows signs of exhaustion. Good trade. Have to watch it though because there might be some traffic along the way down.
Place pending order according to entry strategy. Use due risk and money management.
Short GBPUSD on break of pin barA pin bar has appeared that is confluent with resistance and a downward trendline on the GBPUSD 4Hr time frame. It is large and gives good signal. I believe that there is high probability that price will go south. So, this gives an opportunity to go short.
Set pending order at the break of the low of the pin bar and stop loss just some pips above the high of the pin bar. Please, use good risk management and position sizing.
An introduction to Bar or Candlestick patternsBar patterns consist of one, two or few bars. Their usefulness lies in the fact that they can trigger signals at a relatively early stage in the development of a new trend and usually offer good benchmarks for traders to place low-risk stops. Overall, when considering these patterns, one key factor in determining their significance is the size of the pattern. Note this please because it is very important. Among other characteristics, this helps one to distinguish a high probability from low probability pattern. But size is measured relative to the preceding bars.
These patterns are quite impressive to study because although they act short-term in influencing or moving price, they are quite reliable in their ability to signal short-term trend reversals. Even when a trend is long-term, they can develop at the final points in the trend just when it wants to reverse.
One fact you should note is that not all of these patterns are created equal. By evaluating the criteria for the validity of these patterns, you should be able to distinguish between high probability signals from low probability ones. Only take high probability valid signals when you see them on a chart.
General principles of bar pattern interpretation: Some of the general principles for interpreting these patterns are outlined below:
1. For these formations to be effective there must be something for them to reverse. That means top reversals should be preceded by a meaningful rally, and bottom formations should be preceded by a sharp selloff. As a general rule, the stronger the preceding trend, the more powerful the effect of the bar price pattern. This chart, a EURGBP chart, shows an example.
2. The formations generally reflect an exhaustion point. In the case of an uptrend, such patterns develop when buyers have temporarily pushed prices up too far and need a rest. In the case of a downtrend, there is little if any supply because sellers have liquidated their positions. That is why these patterns are always associated with a reversal in the prevailing trend. In the EURGBP chart above, notice how the momentum of the sell-off has dropped significantly and each bar had low volatility before the pattern appeared.
3. Not all patterns are created equal. The presence of one of these patterns on a chart does not necessarily guarantee a quick, profitable price reversal. Some patterns show some of the characteristics in a very strong way while others in a mild way. Therefore, you need to apply common sense to their interpretation. Take only patterns that show a high probability which some have called 5-star patterns. The USDCHF chart below shows a bullish pin bar that failed because it was trading into a barrier, resistance, when it should be trading away from a barrier.
4. Occasionally, it is possible to observe some form of confirmation closely following or even during the development of these patterns. Some examples could be the pattern being a large pattern, the violation of a trendline, or its formation at a support and resistance zone. These increases the odds that the pattern is a valid signal as well as significant.
Relationship to Japanese candlestick patterns: Although these patterns were discovered when bar charts were widely used and hence the name, you could use candlestick charts for their analysis since bar charts and candlesticks share the same data presentation which is the same open, high, low, and close (OHLC) of price within a specified time. They also share a relationship to traditional Japanese candlestick patterns that are widely used for centuries. Anyone familiar with Japanese candlestick patterns would readily see the similarities and be able to use these bar patterns quickly. If you want an overview of Japanese candlesticks patterns you can read the classic book by Steve Nison on the subject titled “Japanese candlestick charting techniques.” So, when you see bar in subsequent notes, you can replace it with candlestick.
Note: Make sure these patterns form tops and bottoms, that is, swing highs and swing lows, before trading them.
Understanding the Significance of a TrendlineWe want to trade trendlines, but not all trendlines have equal importance. Whether price has touched a trendline or violated it, we should act based on whether the trendline is significant or not. The following three factors are usually considered when evaluating the significance of a trendline: the length of the line, the number of times it has been touched, and the angle of ascent or descent.
1. The length of the line: Since a trendline measures a trend, the longer the line the longer the trend it is monitoring and the more significant the trendline.
2. Number of times the trendline has been touched or approached: The larger the number of touches or approach to a trendline, the more significant is the trendline. Note that because a trendline represents a dynamic area of support and resistance, each touch or approach increases the significance of that trendline because it better represents the underlying trend. Some traders tend to ignore a move close to the line, that is, an approach, but this is as significant as the actual touch. This USDZAR trendline has two factors working for it. One, it is long, extending from March 13 to April 2 and has a good number of touches.
3. Angle of ascent or descent: A very sharp trend is difficult to sustain and liable to be easily broken by a short sideways movement. Flatter trendlines or lines with smaller angles of ascent or descent then are better in reflecting price. Since steep trendlines are likely to be violated much easily, the violation of a particularly steep trend is not as significant as the violation of a more gradual one. That is why the penetration of a steep trendline usually represents a continuation rather than a reversal break. The following chart shows a steep USDTRY (dollar Turkish lira) trend that resulted in a continuation of the prevailing trend.
Measuring implications: Trendlines have measuring implications when they are broken. The measurement is calculated as the maximum vertical distance between the price and the trendline. The distance is then projected in the direction of the new trend from the point of penetration. This is known as the measuring objective. It should be noted that measuring objectives in trendlines are sometimes misleading because when a trendline violation turns out to be a reversal, objectives are usually reached and exceeded. Therefore, you should take the measuring objective as more of a minimum expectation. The chart below shows how the measuring objective can be calculated for a GBPUSD uptrend, taken from the maximum vertical distance between the price and the trendline.
Forecast: Highly probable break of support at 1.0786 for a shortPrice has touched that 1.0786 support about 4 times within three weeks. Therefore, the sellers have been testing the resolve of the buyers, showing the buyers are getting weaker each time. This reasoning is confirmed by the descending triangle that is forming at that support. So, it is highly probable that price will break that support when trading resumes next week. Look out for short opportunities on the short term.
Trendlines and how to trade themTrendlines are one of the simplest tools in technical analysis and about one of the most effective for price patterns since they form the building block for pattern identification and interpretations.
What is a trendline? – A trendline is a straight line connecting a series of ascending swing lows in a rising market or the top of descending series of swing highs in a falling market. The trendlines that are constructed by joining swing lows are called upward trendlines and those connecting swing highs are called downward trendlines.
How to draw trendlines: A downward trendline is constructed by joining the first swing high in a downtrend with another swing high. When price breaks above the trendline, a trend change signal is given. The upward trendline is drawn by joining the first swing low in an uptrend to another swing low. When the trendline is broken, a trend reversal signal is given. Notice how the trend reversed when the trendline above was broken.
We have said that in order to be a true trendline a line must connect two or more swing highs or lows, otherwise it is not significant. This is a fundamental point because a true trendline is a graphic way of representing the underlying trend.
Trendlines can be primary trendlines or secondary trendlines. The primary trendline connects the first top or bottom with the next swing point. If price then moves sharply, this could create a second trend within the primary trendline. Then we connect the first two swing points again to form the secondary trendline.
Trendlines can alert you to changing market conditions. How? By paying attention to the steepness of the trendline. If the trendline is getting flatter, it means the market is moving into a range condition. If the trendline is getting steeper, it means that the trend is getting stronger (or possibly going into a climax). Thus, you can be able to adjust your trading strategy accordingly.
Also, note that trendlines are not always diagonal. There are also horizontal trendlines and these are seen in the case of some price patterns such as head-and-shoulders pattern or the upper and lower boundaries of rectangles. When these lines are penetrated, they usually warn of a change in the trend as would the violation of upward or downward trendlines.
Possible short opportunity on CADJPY imminentA possible break of the support along with a shorting opportunity is imminent in the CADJPY pair as shown in the chart above. Price has formed a symmetric triangle after coming from a downtrend, so the downtrend is possibly going to resume after a short retest of the structure.
Short opportunity but do due risk and money management.
