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a weekly price action market recap and outlook - sp500 e-miniGood day, I hope you are well and enjoyed the holidays. This is my post from before US Session open today, sorry for posting late here. overall market comment tl;dr monthly update: The following are my very rough guesses what could happen over the next 6 months and why this trend is on it’s last leg Q1 earnings will show weakness and market stops making new highs and does a small correction before sideways/retest of highs. Economic indicators continue to deteriorate Q1-Q2 once the price advances stop, more profit taking will follow and we begin a downtrend Q3/Q4 CBs will start the cutting if inflation does not tick up consecutive months and that’s usually where we see the beginning of the bigger down turn If the above are roughly accurate, my bearish outlooks on the weekly/monthly could work out. If not, markets could just continue the pump until next event happens. sp500 Quote from last Thursday: bull case: Bulls got the more up but barely. The high today was 3 points below the ath and that qualifies as a double top. Do we trade down from here? I don’t know. If bulls can keep it above 5300, it’s as bullish as it gets. Many support lines below on the chart and bears not doing enough to make bulls take profit. If bulls can close this quarter at the highs again, consider me dumbstruck again. Market gapped up big in Globex for new ath and last week also closed green. Market is staying inside the tight bull channel starting 2024-01-05, which i marked as W3. In my calculations W5 should be done because we already overshot enough but market obviously does not care and could go on. I’m just saying that this is overbought, overdone and i expect a bigger correction very soon. It’s always at the end of moves where it’s not turning where it should have to fool weak traders into thinking “this time is different” and market can only go up. The small bull channel will be broken over the next 1-3 weeks and we will touch the daily 20ema (around 5240) and afterwards break 5200 again and 5000 over the next 1-2 months. Also, Nasdaq is clearly forming a top already and many Generals stopped advancing. There won’t be a -10% on Nasdaq while the SP500 gains +10, that’s not how this works. bull case: Bulls in full control but as stated above, buying up here is so much risk for a very limited upside imo. Trade small and long until bears show up. For me, all calculated targets are met and I now just wait until market shows weakness. Obviously bulls can continue to grind it even higher. I pay close attention to market generals because they often show the way. Apple shows weakness for many weeks now but banks are melting up. If bank earnings do not surprise upwards, my best guess is, that it will mark the high and last earnings surprised downwards. Earnings will start next week. bear case: Bears need to stop the bulls from making new highs and break the tight bull channel. Then we can talk. I do think the reasonable trade for the rest of the year is to the down side. Now it’s about being patient and not FOMO into stupid trades. I have drawn my rough guess but market has to turn and selling pressure has to build first for this to have any merit. short term: overbought and overdone - not doing anything besides small scalps and waiting for market to change character. medium-long term: All of my calculated bullish targets are met and market is beyond overbought. No more updates here before we see bears showing up.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
SasanSeifi 💁‍♂Ethereum - A Look at the 5-Day ChartHey there,✌ MEXC:ETHUSDT Price broke above the critical $2100 resistance level and consolidated with a bullish trend, reaching $4000. After reaching those highs, the price met some resistance and pulled back a bit. it's currently showing positive signs around the $3000 FVG (Fair Value Gap). As long as the price remains above $3000, the long-term outlook is bullish, with targets of $4400 and $4700. In case of a breakdown and confirmation below the $3000 support, the probability of a deeper correction increases. This is not financial advice, though❗ Do your research before making any investment decisions. Sure, if you have any more questions or need further clarification, feel free to ask. I'm here to help!✌ if you found my analysis helpful, I would appreciate it if you could show your support by liking and commenting. Thank you!🙌
Long
by SasanSeifi
2
a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good evening and i hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures bull case: Bulls got the more up but barely. The high today was 3 points below the ath and that qualifies as a double top. Do we trade down from here? I don’t know. If bulls can keep it above 5300, it’s as bullish as it gets. Many support lines below on the chart and bears not doing enough to make bulls take profit. If bulls can close this quarter at the highs again, consider me dumbstruck again. bear case: Pullback was shallow as expected. Unexpected was the selloff into the close again. My thesis was, this is profit taking end of quarter and i expect more trading range price action tomorrow. If the low probability case happens and we see bigger profit taking, it could actually become a big pullback from near the ath. But i will only look for shorts when we close a 1h big red candle below 5300. short term: Neutral going into last trading dax of the quarter. Absolutely everything is on the table for tomorrow, from melt up 5400 to big profit taking to 5280. medium-long term: Below 5200 i keep my bearish thesis as drawn (weekly outlook). above we can go much higher before down. we could also range above 5000 for many months without going nowhere. I expect earnings to become weak in this quarter but could take next one as well. —unchanged trade of the day: Buy near 5300 and sell above 5312 , worked since yesterday late in US session.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
2
a daily price action after hour update - goldGood evening and i hope you are well. Gold Quote from my weekly post: short term: Neutral. Bulls could break above 2200 again and bears could also break below 2140. bull case: Market seems bullish enough for 2220 test again and i think it this time it will break again for retest 2247. I’d be surprised if we get big sell volume around 2220 again. Market is forming multiple triangles but where are obviously still above many many bull trend lines and bears just not doing enough. bear case: Not much going on for them. I don’t know how strongly 2220 will be sold again but market is going a third time there and bears could also just step aside and trying to short again higher. Looking for longs is the much butter play overall for gold in the current environment. short term: Bullish. Invalid below 2200 but i think we retest 2247 soon. medium-long term: very high probability of reaching 2300 and there i will look how the market behaves. We could be entering the equities off and commodities on cycle. Very long term Gold was nowhere near equities and that’s why betting on gold entering a bullish cycle to 3000/4000 is very low probability. Higher probability is betting on a higher high here inside a big trading range 1700 - 2200 and we will trade down over the next months. I would not enter long term positions here. —unchanged, need more time at this level or breakout to change my outlook.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood evening and i hope you are well. I was totally already writing the update with the most annoying small trading range price action in mind (obviously not the dax) but then the bears used the power hour to extend the range downwards. If anything i’d guessed we close near the open. Interesting going into tomorrow and if bears can generate follow through or at least keep bulls below the lower highs. sp500 bull case: Still a rather weak bear flag and daily 20ema is still 50 points away. If the bulls are still eager and strong, they wont let the gap close to 5250 or let the market reverse Wednesday’s breakout. If we trade below, i expect them to buy more strongly around the lower bull trend line 5220ish. I do think the sell off into the close today was unexpected. bear case: If bears fail to generate follow through tomorrow, market for sure will retest 5324. If we get follow through, next targets are 5250 and 5220. There is a less than 5% chance that the market will break this bull trend line on the next touch. Best bears can probably get is a trading range 5250 - 5324. Measured move from the bear bar into the close is around 5240, which is also where the trend line could be, depending on the time we arrive there. short term: Neutral - means sideways. If bears won’t step it up, we retest 5300 and higher. Invalid below 5220. Then next would be the bull trend line (depending when we reach 5230) and below that is 5200. —unchanged medium-long term: Below 5200 i keep my bearish thesis as drawn (weekly outlook). above we can go much higher before down. we could also range above 5000 for many months without going nowhere. i expect earnings to become weak in this quarter but could take next one as well. trade of the day: Deadly price action for your account if you gamble and are not comfortable with small trading ranges. I think the odds from bar 17 to today’s 7, were clearly bullish and bar 8-11 was just a pullback. I think market was expecting to trade above 13+14 again because the range was so tight and the bull leg before was strong enough for a retest 5300+. That could be a reason why 17 was so strong, many traders cought on the wrong side and quickly gave up. How do you trade it? Either you are good a small scalps or don’t trade it at all. Other possibility could have been, you were short from bar 8 or at least short from above 5290, then you could have hold just into close. But who is short from there, when market is clearly bullish.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - oilGood evening and i hope you are well. Let me start today with a beautiful quote, which is often repeated in some form or another and indefinitely more people do not grasp. As we’ve discussed, every security is a claim on some set of cash flows that will be delivered to investors over time. Yet at any given moment, the only two things that determine the price of a stock are a) the highest price the most eager buyer is willing to pay, and b) the lowest price that the most eager seller is willing to accept. If enough buyers are eager and enough sellers are hesitant, the price will advance. If enough sellers are eager and enough buyers are hesitant, the price will decline. It doesn’t matter why. www.hussmanfunds.com I recommended the market comment from John P. Hussman on x yesterday but i want to make sure, more people read it because it’s that amazing and free. Props to him for doing it. wti crude oil bull case: Bulls doing a good enough job keeping this above 80 and they got a retest of 82 today. Market is not accepting anything above 82 for now, but if bulls keep at it, something will give. We probably range more between 80 - 82 until a clear breakout and i think i can go either way. Bar 10 + 11 was strong enough that we could get a second leg up. We formed a good looking two legged pullback on the 1h chart and we could move higher soon. bear case: Bears scalping at best here, it’s probably more bulls taking profit. They would need to get a really good close below 80 with follow through, for lower prices. Right now odds of that are very small. Best they can probably get is a trading range 80 - 83. short term: Neutral with slight bullish favor inside given range medium-long term: Market needs to reach the big bear trend line around 84 and we need to see the reaction there. It’s a bull trend but on the weekly it’s a weak looking trend with many overlapping bars. Could easily reach 84 and trade back down to 75 again over some weeks. That’s it for today, have a good night and talk to you tomorrow.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
EUR/USD near lower rangeChart legend: Yellow lines: These line represent the lower and upper boundary of the range that has been tracked for the last 30+ days. Orange lines: Buy and sell side volume in the order book. These areas are where the buying and selling volume are the highest. Note that multiple zone could exist, these are just the strongest ones. Purple lines: This is the combination of order book volume and frequency counting of prices. The combined weight shows where the market actually is in relation to current price of what the buyers and sellers want. Outlook: I believe the market is going to re-test the support area around 1.079. The order book suppport levels are considerably weak compared to the resistance levels and bearish pressure, so we could have prices set a new lower range over the week. It should be taken into consideration though, that the bulls have had several weaker support level and still managed to fend off bearish pressure. While the frequency weighted support zone does look quite weak, the order book does have a substantial amount of orders placed below the area that could stave off the bears. While a new lower range is possible, I don't believe there is going to be any major changes in the current market direction for the first half of the week at a minimum. I think the bears will need more of a show to really move the market lower for a substantially longer period of time.
by RobertD7723
a daily price action after hour update - goldGood evening and i hope you are well. Markets want green across the board and that means acceptance. Bears can’t deny it because they are not doing anything to stop this so higher prices are the higher probability here, no matter how overbought everything is. The only possibility i can dream up currently is that this quarter was so utterly overbought, that we could see profit taking into end of quarter and that could hit many profit taking stops along the way but that is so far fetched right now. But then again, so is this rally. Gold bull case: 67 points made on Wednesday, that’s something you don’t see that often in gold. Today was bigger profit taking but market did a perfect breakout retest and bulls bought it. You could draw a triangle here and a 50% pullback of the Wednesday move is pretty much the middle of it. Close is close enough for markets. Means market is in breakout mode for new direction. Anything above 2200 is not accepted and sold but bears could not reverse the breakout. Will see tomorrow where this is heading next. bear case: Bears got a perfect retest of yesterdays breakout and bulls bought it. Not good for the bears. I mentioned market is in breakout mode and bears can only dream of trading below 2150 again. As long as bull trend lines hold and market trades above the daily 20ema which is around 2150, this is bullish. short term: Neutral here - want to see the triangle play out and get a clear breakout to either side with follow through. Can’t really see that happening tomorrow but i’m open to the possibility. Range 2160 - 2200 medium-long term: Very high probability of reaching 2300 and there i will look how the market behaves. We could be entering the equities off and commodities on cycle. Very long term Gold was nowhere near equities and that’s why betting on gold entering a bullish cycle to 3000/4000 is very low probability. Higher probability is betting on a higher high here inside a big trading range 1700 - 2200 and we will trade down over the next months. I would not enter long term positions here. — unchanged trade of the day: 7 1h candles with wicks above 2210. Markets only try one thing so often until they try something different. Obvious short Bar 10 as it formed. Bar 12 had a big enough tail to set the stop 1 tick above it.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
Trading Game. How they manipulate with priceImagine You buy a stock or business, that You think was undervalued based on the "circumstances" and that you think has great value. You bought this at 1$, during 2020 November alongside with the oil rally. Nobody knows the price. Everyone has a price target... Imagine my price target was 7$ - based on the previous highs. Chances are everyone will look at it the same way and adjust the price based on some context. Under price momentum, there was buyers and sellers and stock rise to 3$..4$..5$ etc... If everyone use 7$ for guidance - most likely everyone be selling their shares at 5$. If I wanted you to sell higher I would shout 10$. If I wanted you to sell lower I would shout 0.50$. People would adjust their targets and nobody knows exactly how much something is worth. That's what the institutions do with their public price targets. It works like a poker game. The closer price got to 5$ -> more risk you took by buying or holding it. If I had a ton of bitcoins, I would shout $200k price. and sell it when it's strong. etc. Then cause panic - to get cheaper prices. #101
NYSE:RIGLong
by citsvar
13
#202412 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daxGood Morning and i hope you are well. Last week the dax bulls created a potential exhaustive very big island gap, US indexes ranged at the highs, gold ranged after the uber bullish move up and oil did exactly what i have been writing for many weeks now. No matter how you want to draw it, Nasdaq made lower lows, printed 2 consecutive weekly bear bars (last time was end of October) and closed below the daily 20ema. You can bet your Glutes that i have my hopes up, this will finally roll over. The drops in Bitcoin were also big enough to flip the market to always in short if bulls cant bring this above 70000 again. So i think given Opex and FOMC next week and the price action, we are probably having a key week for the markets ahead of us. dax Quote from last week: bull case: Bears printing a small pullback on the daily chart which probably will be bought up to 18000 and maybe higher. Market gives no signal to stop buying for new highs so algos won't stop. Adjusted my wave outlooks a bit. Nothing bearish about this at all, 18000 is the next logical target and my bullish wave thesis is still going strong. My target was 18400 for this bull leg but ofc it could be that we over/undershoot. If bears manage to get it down to 17700, that was support last time and i expect bulls to buy it again. This week, bulls formed the third big bullish gap on the daily time frame, since the bull market started 2023-10. So what are the odds of the market doing a fourth before having a bigger correction? If you find an example where German GDP contracted while Dax did this, please let me know. We will close 2 of those 3 gaps in Q2, which would only bring us down to around 17000. The odds of this gap being a measuring one to break above the bull trend line starting 2023-02 are so abysmally small, that we could actually see an island reversal here to mark this as a top. If bulls can keep the gap to 18000 open and break above the bull trend line 18300, i’m fairly certain this won’t stop until 19500/20000. bull case: Bulls want the daily gap to 18000 to stay open and have the next breakout which could be the third leg up for the latest bull trend that started with the breakout on 2024-02-21. That third leg could give us 18600 and would invalidated the smaller bull trend lines on the chart and give us the bigger one, which started before the Covid crash and could lead to 20000. I think the probability of this happening is as great as Tesla FSD actually being FSD in the next 2 years. Daily 20ema is still 500 points away and has not been touched for more than a month. bear case: Everything you read in this section makes more sense than the bull case, however, until bears close those bullish gaps and we see the market trading below the daily 20ema, everything in here is low probability as well. Can 18329 be the high and we drop 500 points to trap many bulls? Absolutely. Did the market stop making new all time highs for some time? Hell naw and that’s why you don’t look for shorts until bears show strength. We again are at multiple upper trend lines, calculated measured move targets and so far away from the 20ema, that if the market turns, it will probably turn violently. Bears first target is still to stop the market from making new ath and close the gap to 18000. outlook last week: “up is the only way and it will take way more from the bears to stop it. should only look for longs or very big consecutive bear bars with follow through before shorting” → Last Sunday we traded 17775 and now we are at 17791. Ok outlook. Bears created very weak bear bars on the daily chart, which made every bear cautious and scalping. Bulls took over on Wednesday where they stalled the market and bears then gave up on Thursday. short term: break above 18400 and this might just run straight to 18600 and that would open the door for 19000 and 20000. Invalid below 18000 and if bears actually show up, depending on the strength, could easily fall straight to 17700. medium-long term: the weekly chart gives nothing but bullishness so higher prices are expected. my long term outlook stays bearish and i expect at least a -30% correction in 2024. —unchanged Chart wave thesis was not updated and is still valid. Will update if either of mentioned breakouts happen.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
Bitcoin Heading to 64.8kTraders, Bitcoin is likely to start making daily lower highs this next week. Of course, we have another FOMC meeting coming up which will add a level of uncertainty and possible volatility. I have been hoping for a retrace down to that 64.8k level (ascending multi-year support/resistance) and I think we'll get it. Above I have the proposed path that price might take. Once we have tagged that 64.8k level the question becomes, "What's next?". Remember, we have an 80k inverse H&S target which we have NOT hit yet. And as long as we remain above that multi-year support level, my experience tells me that we'll probably bounce there and continue upwards. However, as always, we have to prepare for the other scenario as well, that we continue down. If we continue down, then likely we'll retest that purple neckline around 48k. And, IMO, that may be one of the last times you'll ever see 48k on BTC again. Even with the looming U.S. recession/depression that should begin sometime this year (and it will be bad), I see Bitcoin holding it's ground and remaining relatively strong overall against other asset classes. Best in all your trades, Stewdamus
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by stewdamus
3
a daily price action after hour update - bitcoinGood evening and i hope you are well. Markets another selling round today, after the much higher than expected US PPI created big bear bars that were quickly sold, just to break below again. Bears then could not keep the momentum going and most markets ranged afterwards. Oil did exactly what i said it would do for many days now and the 82 target is within reach. bitcoin Here my quote from last Wednesday: bull case: Bulls probably want to print 70000 to increase the bear pain. Not much else for now. Market is still bullish because daily 20ema is at 58000. Markets are fractal, believe it or not, i don’t care. Bitcoin will sell off 30-50% in 2024. Was 73805 the high for this move? I don’t know. We need consecutive daily closes below 70000 first. Close below 68000 will probably trigger enough stops to flip market always in short and the high might be in then. bull case: Bulls got the 70000 and then some. Where to go from here? We had big profit taking at the new highs and market can only do things so often until it does the opposite. Can bulls get 80000? I doubt it. bear case: Bears need to print consecutive bear bars closing on their lows to change the market character. Right now it would be a win for the bears if Bitcoin would not make new highs. The sell off today was strong enough to expect a second leg, i got a measured move down to 66000 and if we get there, i think the odds are good, that we just continue to sell from there. Just look at the monthly chart and what the market did the last time it made new all time highs. short term: neutral here - probably sideways 68000 - 73800. Below 68000 is hell for bulls. medium-long term: down to 30000 (could take 1-2 years) trade of the day: Once market broke below the 20ema for the 15m or 1h time frame and printed consecutive bear bars, you had to get short.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - oilGood evening and i hope you are well. wti crude oil bull case: Bulls stayed above the daily 20ema which is around 78, they bought where they had to and today was strong enough for at least a second leg, which would bring us back to 81, which is last weeks high. I still expect 82 in the near future. If we get a third leg, that’s the obvious target. The fact that bears could not sell below 77 is further confirmation of my bullish thesis which i have been talking about for some weeks now. bear case: Last days Bears tried many times to get below 77 again and today they gave up. They will scalp pullbacks and wait for bulls to show weakness again around 81/82. short term: Bullish. Look for longs at the 15m or 1h 20ema. 1. Target 81, 2. is 82. - Invalid below 78.6 medium-long term: Neutral until clear break above 81 and no drop below 77 but i tend to lean bullish here. I would not engage in long term trades here. Either wait for lower prices or a bull breakout. —unchanged
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - tesla #3Good evening and i hope you are well. tl;dr: do or die here at 170 for the bulls. If we break below the bear channel line, bulls covering will fuel this further. Strongly bearish. Last week i wrote the following: "bear case: Price action wise was this a wedge bear flag which broke down and now market will test 175 if there are more buyers than sellers. Not rocket science so far." I still did not adjust my wave thesis since 2024-02-11. I added a sub w5 for the bigger w3 to make it clearer what i expect the next weeks. bull case: Do or die here at 170. The bear channel has to hold or we will flush down to around 150. If bulls manage to hold 170, we could probably see sideways movement to the upper bear channel, where i expect stronger selling again. Bulls can probably only stall the market until next earnings 2024-04-17 and pray for a elon miracle. bear case: Nothing bullish about this stock at all. Bears are in full control and selling everything. If they manage to break below the bear channel, the long covering will accelerate it to 150 but probably not much further before earnings. If earnings are as bad as i expect, the remaining die hard bulls will give up. Except for Cathy. This stock and her fund will go down in 2024. short term: below the bear trend line is hell for bulls - if we bounce here, probably sideways till earnings between 167 - 180 medium-long term: down - what would change that? trading above 270 --unchanged outlook
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by priceactiontds
1
a daily price action after hour update - goldGood evening and i hope you are well. bull case: Everything above 2100 is uber bullish because most long term bears already covered, so we could range much more at the highs. Bulls see the sell off by the bears today as weak and they keep the buying pressure on. If you look at the 1h chart, we currently have wild swings up and down on some 1h candles. Some are > 1%. Bulls now want a break above the bear wedge from today and trade back to 2180 to test higher prices. I’m unsure if we will find more buyers than sellers there but if you look at the daily chart, the move last week was so strong that bulls are obviously still in full control of the market. bear case: Today was the second day where the Globex open was the high of the day and bulls are not stepping in enough. Was 2202 the high? Could be but the sell off is weak. Bears need to do more and get follow through tomorrow. Market also formed a bear wedge which could break above and market is probably expecting a retest of 2200. If bears can keep it below 2180, bulls might take more profits and we get lower prices. Also there is the slight possibility of today being W1 and we get a measured move down to around 2120 but again, this is very low probability. short term: Sideways to up but 2200 could continue to be big resistance - invalid below 2150 medium-long term: Down to at least 1850 over the next 2 years — unchanged trade of the day: selling near the 1h 20ema since bulls could not close above and buying 2160 since bears could not close below - sounds fishy but look back at charts and see how many times that’s a profitable strategy on the day.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by priceactiontds
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - fx - eur/usdGood evening and i hope you are well. The FX markets are not exciting, since most central banks are doing nothing but waiting currently. Short update it is… eur/usd Quote from last week: bull case: Bulls bought where they needed to because if 1.08 would have failed, that would have been a clear sell signal and 1.075 would have been next. Now they need good follow through above 1.0875 and a daily close above. Market is neutral inside the range 1.08 - 1.086 until clear breakout. Time wise i think the bull breakout will happen this or next week. I hope you listened to this because this was as perfect of an outlook was it gets. Have been talking about the retest of 1.1 for weeks now and the high this week was 1.0985. bull case: Bulls got their breakout and their next target is the upper triangle line around 1.097 to break above for the retest of 1.1. They also created a bull channel and want a third leg up. Right now the market expects a pullback to probably retest the breakout and maybe the daily 20ema which are 1.087 - 1.09. Bears printed 2 weak looking bear bars on the daily, which increases the odds that we probably go sideways here. bear case: Bears sold the upper triangle line which started 3 years ago. Their next target is the lower bull channel trend line and the daily 20ema around 1.0875, which is pretty far away, given the weak selling pressure they created the last 2 trading days. If they find strength, they could argue a trading range to trade back down to the lower triangle trend line 1.078 but that’s so far away and there are many support areas to break through first, so very low probability. outlook last week: “up - invalid below 1.08 (daily close or big bear bar closing on it’s low)“ → Last Friday we traded 1.086 and now we are at 1.092. I said the breakaout will happen this or next week and gave the obvious target we undershot by 15 pips. Pretty fn amazing. short term: Sideways to up - target above is 1.1 where i expect many profit taking & sell orders - invalid below 1.084 medium-long term: Sideways inside 1.058 and 1.105 - the next 2-3 months something will happen news-wise which will set the market tone until the end of the year and we will see bigger fx movements - until then, neutral inside given range
CME_MINI:M6E1!Long
by priceactiontds
#202411 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daGood day and i hope you are well. There is a theory of markets, that the ‘Generals’ usually lead the way for the next impulse. I have no idea about the proven probabilities of that but let’s just talk about some big stocks here, which supports my bigger bearish market thesis, that this still might be the blow-off top at the end of a very long ongoing bull trend which is exhausted and will turn around soon. Apple: Just broke below or is at the monthly 20ema; -15% from the ATH; 2 consecutive red months and the third is forming; clear sell signal below 160 Google: below the weekly 20ema; -15% from ATH; increasing volume on bear days; will become clear sell below 120 Nvidia: The peak bubble of bubbles -11.18% on Friday with very high volume; bulls will take profits for their lifes below 800 JP Morgan: holding strong at the highs - might be the last to turn around - just printed 2 bad looking bars for the bulls dax Quote from last week: bull case: Bulls closed the week very bullish and even if all targets are met and they are at multiple upper trend lines, they can just continue the pump, there is no denying that. I know i keep repeating myself. Risk reward for buying up here is bad but if there is no selling pressure, the probability is on the bull side and every trade is a trade-off between risk, reward and probability. Next target for bulls can be 17500, 18000. Not much new happening compared to last week. Bulls broke above a bull channel, got a retest of that breakout trend line and made a new ath. bull case: Bears printing a small pullback on the daily chart which probably will be bought up to 18000 and maybe higher. Market gives no signal to stop buying for new highs so algos won't stop. Adjusted my wave outlooks a bit. Nothing bearish about this at all, 18000 is the next logical target and my bullish wave thesis is still going strong. My target was 18400 for this bull leg but ofc it could be that we over/undershoot. If bears manage to get it down to 17700, that was support last time and i expect bulls to buy it again. bear case: Everything in here is very low probability. Bulls are in full control and odds favor the bulls then. Best bears can get here is probably a trading range 17600 - 18000. Bears have not done anything to close this enormous bull gap 17150 - 17670 on the daily chart. outlook last week: “sideways to up is the high probability but bad r:r trade. if bears get a strong beginning of the week, my exhaustion thesis might be correct and we drop below 17000 again.” → Last Sunday we traded 17775 and now we are at 17791. Ok outlook. Bears created very weak bear bars on the daily chart, which made every bear cautious and scalping. Bulls took over on Wednesday where they stalled the market and bears then gave up on Thursday. short term: up is the only way and it will take way more from the bears to stop it. should only look for longs or very big consecutive bear bars with follow through before shorting medium-long term: the weekly chart gives nothing but bullishness so higher prices are expected. my long term outlook stays bearish and i expect at least a -30% correction in 2024. —unchanged
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURLong
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - nasdaqGood evening and i hope you are well. Today bulls got another very strong day and either retested the highs or made new ones. ECB paused as expected but markets did not care one bit. Just bullish price action since EU open. Tomorrow more macroschmackro data which could lead to big spikes on a choppy week. I can not rule out market will interpret numbers bullish and we have another insane rally into the weekend. nasdaq bull case: Bulls had a strong bull trend day but made a lower high. After US close we broke out of the big wedge and if this get’s follow through, odds favor that this was just a bigger two legged move inside a big trading range. Bulls need to stay above the 1h 20ema around 18180 to keep btfd going and going for new highs tomorrow. bear case: If bears can generate good selling pressure here and trade below 18100, they might have a chance of bulls taking profits enough again to trade back below 18000. The after hours sell-off was strong enough to get a second leg and i still expect a bigger second leg after Tuesday’s sell-off short term: neutral until Fridays NFP - will probably keep ranging between 17830 - 18400 medium-long term: bearish but first market must form a credible top trade of the day: btfd. no reason to exit longs until US close
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
daily price action after hour update - nasdaqGood evening and i hope you are well. After yesterdays bear surprise (no new ath - big surprise), we got an expected inside bar on most daily charts. I expect another leg down this week, followed by more trading range price action (could chop before too though). nasdaq bull case: Bulls want to reverse the sell off from Tuesday and keep this a trading range at the highs. They are trading above the daily 20ema and market is therefore bullish. They also closed above 18000, which in itself is still extremely bullish. BTFD is still on, range is just smaller and no new daily ath. bear case: Bears kept the market below 18160 which i think is an important price. They also closed below the open and below the 1h 20ema. Thy want a retest of the lows 17832 again and a close below the daily 20ema around 17900. They see the price action today as a bear flag and the selling pressure is actually there, compared to last week. short term: neutral until ECB presser and Fridays NFP - will probably range between 17830 - 18200 medium-long term: same as dax - the weekly chart gives nothing but bullishness so higher prices are expected. my long term outlook stays bearish and i expect at least a -30% correction in 2024. trade of the day: very tricky day. big sell spikes which got all stops but bulls kept buying until retest of yesterdays open - there was a double top on the 15m tf then and it was a good short around 18160. have to be humble on these days
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - daxGood evening and i hope you are well. Today most markets showed some restraint and bulls actually began taking profits, which is very unusual for the last weeks, to say the least. We don’t know if bulls will be more cautious buying at the highs this time and we go more sideways or bulls will continue the pump further. I will give an update on Bitcoin tomorrow on tradingview (link on x) and Oil in the after hour update tomorrow. Oil is bullish as long as it stays above the daily 20ema which is around 77.5 right now. So bulls bought it today and i expect more sideways the next days. dax Dax is in a weak bear channel since Friday’s ATH and i expect the range 17600 - 17850 to hold for more days, unless something unexpected happens or is reported. bull case: Bulls keeping this still far far above the daily 20ema which is at 17400. As long as they stay above that, the see the market as bullish and will buy the dips. Today was an expected trading range day where the close was near the open (about 20 points above). I’d be surprised if bears can get it below 17630 and as long as that holds, we will trade back and forth inside the weak bear channel for now. bear case: Bears are probably euphoric because they stopped the market from making another daily new ath. They are taking quick profits and waiting for higher prices to short, which is why we ranged today. Bears next target is 17600 and then 17400 which is the current daily 20ema and the low of last week. short term: neutral - range between 17600 - 17760 (weak bear channel) - break below is 17600 next. above is retest of ath 17846 medium-long term: the weekly chart gives nothing but bullishness so higher prices are expected. my long term outlook stays bearish and i expect at least a -30% correction in 2024. trade of the day: gap close last Friday 17763 and selling the big bear bar 16 as it was forming. was very clear on the 15m chart because there were 4 bars that could not close above 17760
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds