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a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good evening and i hope you are well. Today we witnessed a perfect bull trap above the recent new all time highs for US markets. Here is the most important quote from my weekly outlook i posted yesterday: We already ranged at the highs for some time now and for most indexes it’s just a higher high and now i expect a major trend reversal. Hence the title, the bear awaking. The higher highs maybe higher than i anticipated, yet the thesis was and is perfect and if bears can get follow through the next days, the highs are in for maybe a decade. sp500 Quote from yesterday’s weekly outlook: We could easily see a 200 point drop to the daily 20ema because no one wants to be left holding the bag buying at the ath and the market is overdue for some sort of minor correction. Bears wont get a bigger one until we have traded more sideways at the highs. Biggest question now is the monthly close and if bears manage to close it below 5000, i think its very likely that the highs are in for the year. Targets for the bears next week are 5000, 4950, 4900. Market rallied hard and fell harder afterwards to close below Friday’s close. Perfect bull trap. bull case: Bulls made another ath and have many support lines to buy from. As long as they keep it above 5025, bulls are still in control. They want to trade back up from the lower bull channel trend lines for at least a retest of 5050 or 5066. bear case: Bears stepped aside for the opening rally to a new ath, just to aggressively sell the double top bar 13 at 5065. The sell off was strong enough to expect a second leg and a measured move would bring us right back to 5000. They trapped many late bulls and many more will have stops around 5020/5000. So if bears can generate good follow through, we might see more big profit taking. Next target below 5000 is the daily 20ema around 4940. short term: sideways to down medium-long term: medium-long term: down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 5100 trade of the day: long from the open because it was right at the 1h 20ema and bar 9 was a good 15m bull signal bar and short bar 13 (was a perfect double top on the 5m chart)
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
Yemi_Fx1 | Bearish Setup on NZDUSD Hello folks, OANDA:NZDUSD is one of the pair I have on watchlist this week. NZDUSD has been trading within an ascending channel since . Price recently tested the 1HTF supply zone at 0.61584, a potential resistance zone. From Daily Timeframe: The pair is currently in a consolidation phase following a downtrend. We're expecting a continuation of trend on this time frame. However, on 1HTF we may experience a pause in price to provide a continuation pattern giving us an opportunity to join the train or we just wait for the complete break and retest of the structure to then go Short on it. If you found this helpful please support your fellow trader with a like.
Short
by Yemi_Fx1
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - tesla #1Good evening and i hope you are well. "Uuuuh another degenerate calling out big NASDAQ:TSLA targets, booooooo" My bad for making you click on this. Enjoy your evening. Now that we are over that, lemme give you my reasoning for it and then you can make up your own thesis. bull case: What might that be i ask myself many times now for the last weeks. Very best i could come up with is, that the broad bear channel is broad enough for bulls to make money a couple of days in between the sell offs. That's it. If you are a bull and bought above 200, you might be in for a ride here. Please spare me your macro schmackro and how Tesla will have autonomous driving in the next 5 years. You are embarassing yourself since 2015. bear case: Only question is, how deep and how fast can this drop over the next months or years. Insanely overall bullish market and Tesla is in a weak broad bear channel, grinding lower for 25+ months. like do you honestly believe the overall market conditions will get better from here on? They bought the SP500 and Nasdaq like there is no tomorrow and this stock had nothing but disappointmen for bulls for more than 2 years now. This was orderly selling in a very confined channel. Next phase is the bulls-giving-up phase. short term: sideways to down. medium-long term: down - what would change that? trading above 270 Here an outrages take on top, if Tesla gets consecutive daily closes below 145/140, it's free fall and Cathie Wood will be retired.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by priceactiontds
1
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - alibaba #2Greetings, Last time i wrote about Alibaba was 2024-01-30 and i just read something about a WSB 'investor" betting big on higher prices for this stock. Boi. I mean. Does anyone seriously look at this chart and think? G, this looks like it found a bottom and is ready to go back to the moon. If you do so, enlighten me with your thoughts in the comments. This stock is on it's way lower. It can't trade more than a couple of days above the daily 20ema and it's still making lower lows. Could the January low at 66.63 hold and we make higher lows from there? Sure but the odds of that are low and market has to at least retest that price. I still think market will go lower and will probably retest 2015 & 2022 low around 57/58 and even then it has to trade way more time sideways before one could conclude, that the bottom is in. There are so so many trapped bulls who will use any bounce to reduce their losses. Maybe it's not a good short below 80 on a weekly timeframe but it sure as hell isn't a buy unless you do not care at all about another possible -40% and would happily add on to longs there. Potential low could be around 60 but we do not know that by looking at the price action so far. Markets do not go from one trend to another or at least it's so rare that betting on it, will lose you money in the long run. Bull case: Best they can pray for is sideways and find a bottom around 60. They have to be quick to take profits because of all the trapped bulls using any bounce to reduce their losses. Bear case: Bears want to retest 58 and until bulls generate more buying pressure and bears fail to make lower lows, they will continue short this relentlessly. Clear down trend on multiple time frames and it's clearly SELL THE RIP. short term: Sideways to down - Market needs to find the true bottom and until all bear channels are broken and market testet the lows multiple times, it's sideways or down. medium-long term: Sideways until no lower lows and consecutive bigger bull bars without an immediate selloff the next days
NYSE:BABAShort
by priceactiontds
202407 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daxGood day and i hope you are well. Bulls made new all time highs on dax, sp500, nasdaq and the dow (those are the ones i cover, so i don’t care about the rest). Since i don’t think this is the beginning of a new stronger trend, where we rally another 5-10%, all bullish targets are met imo. My focus has now shifted to a change in the character of the market. We had amazing bull runs, next logical cycle is a trading range before we get a new bear trend. We already ranged at the highs for some time now and for most indexes it’s just a higher high and now i expect a major trend reversal. Hence the title, the bear awaking. A week ago i raised the thesis that we are very close to the end of this bull rally and Opex might be a good opportunity to trap many late bulls. You can argue that it’s quite stupid to talk about bearish targets after many new aths and rallies and that may be so. I have given you my reasoning and now it’s gathering evidence and looking for the signals. Now comes the outrages part this week. I mentioned a couple of times now that these highs are a good place to start long term shorts. Shorting here at the tops, has the potential to be the trade of a lifetime. You don’t get that many multiple year long major trend reversals. Everyone wants to buy low and sell high but when the time comes, who has the balls and nerves to do it without losing it all? dax Dax has not moved in 2 weeks and that’s only due to weakness by the bulls. If they had the strength to produce a new ath or the retest, it would have happened by now. If you want to short the highs, you still need a wide stop to factor in a spike. So at least 17250/17300. bull case: Bulls need a strong daily close with follow through the next day. Right now they are still closing above the daily 20ema but market the doji closes are helping the bears more than the bulls. Since most indexes rallied so much the last days, the bull case for dax is very weak imo. bear case: Bears need to show strength and a daily close below 16950. If they get that, i think the odds of dax trading quickly down to 16650 are high. They see the 4 tops that failed to close above 17132 and wait for bulls to finally give up. They got 3 days of lower highs and lower lows, so we are already in a bear channel inside this bigger trading range. But we are also in multiple triangles so market will break out soon. outlook last week: “Neutral here. Both sides have reasonable arguments and i don’t like to guess these odds around 50/50. Just wait for strength with follow through. Will update this anyway in my daily updates“ → Last Sunday we traded 17025 and now we are at 17032, outlooks do not get better than that. short term: bearish. we will get a big move down next week or the week after. could go sideways for week before the move. odds clearly favor sideways, just to be very clear about that, yet i think bearish price action is reasonable and due. medium-long term: down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 17300.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURShort
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good evening and i hope you are well. Today was the day i started talking about around 2 weeks ago. The price action of the last 6 days was conclusive and i had no doubt market will reach the given bullish targets for more bear pain. SP500 e-mini futures printed 5020 and printing a new ath tomorrow is highly probable. I hope you played it and made some. Quote from 2024-01-21 short term: up up up - can’t see this not printing 5000 in the next days or 2-3 weeks. Can markets reach even higher targets or will we get big profit taking and a correction? That’s the million dollar question and i can’t answer it for you, nor can anyone else. We are in the business of following big institutions and the given price action, not fortune telling. Other furus give you sensational clickbait targets which suit your bias, i won’t. My bullish bias has concluded with today and i see absolutely no reason to buy anything at these highs anymore. I am neutral short term until bears show up and bulls begin to take profit. After a first correction with follow through, i will evaluate lower prices but it’s unreasonable to talk about any bearish targets for now. sp500 bull case: Bulls printed 5020 and they want to party to continue. Can they even print higher prices? For sure but are you willing to buy the highs here? I’m not. Odds favor a new ath but you need a far better entry than 5015-5020 to have a good r:r for this. bear case: Bears need to show strength. Their first target is a close below 4980 (1h 20ema is around 4982) but i think the best they can hope for is a trading range at the highs before we get a major trend reversal. Today was 0 bearish price action, only bulls who took profits imo. short term: sideways medium-long term: Down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 5100 trade of the day: Tight trading range in EU session let to nothing, wait for breakout and enter above a good signal bar, breakout bar 27 should have been the long of the day. no reason to exit until close
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - daxGood evening and i hope you are well. Today markets tricked many traders into strong moves in a weak environment. The move’s seem like they will break out of the range but they fail at resistance over and over again. It’s a neutral market where buyers and sellers agree on the middle of the range as the fair price. You have to play the range until there is a clear breakout or you don’t trade at all. dax Groundhogs day. Bears tried and bulls bought it. Bears stepped aside enough then to let Dax print a new high for the year. Biggest question right now is this: Was the move today strong enough for another leg up and a new ath? I doubt it but i think it’s higher probability than trading below 16800. bull case: Bulls are still in BTFD mode and they made a new high for 2024. A measured move target from today’s move would bring us above 17300 and i think this is more probable than bears showing strength and bringing this below 16800. 16950 is big support and at least a retest of the ath at 17199 is my base case. bear case: Bears see it as a double top with the January high at 17120. They want to continue inside the range 16950 - 17100 but they are weak and quick to take profits. Until bulls stop with BTFD, you should not bet on a bear breakout below given range. I still think my thesis for the blow off top and a quick drop is valid and the next bear cycle can begin. short term: sideways to up medium-long term: Down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 17300. adding to long term shorts here at the highs trade of the day: BTFD. I hate repeating it but market currently does exactly the same
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURLong
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood evening and i hope you are well. Markets went sideways today, as was expected and laid out yesterday. We are forming many triangles, which means that prices are converging and we get a break out soon. Bears tried a bit but bulls bought it, which confirms my thesis of higher prices. I still expect a bit more sideways movement. If i had to guess, i’d say we reach the tops before Opex and crater into or afterwards. But that’s guesswork and you should not trade on such things. Let’s look at me painting and how the sp500 did today. Sell vacuum to support from the open down to 4937, which was 5 points above Friday’s open. Bulls bought it and bears stepped aside. We closed 11 points below the open. Daily 20ema + 15m 20ema is pretty flat and we are in multiple triangles. Odds just scream more sideways until breakout. bull case: Yesterday i said a pullback is in order and we will probably trade sideways, that was pretty spot on. Now we wait for the bull breakout and a new ath or a couple. I have no doubt market will print them. bear case: Still not much. Best they can hope for is a trading range and stop the advance but they are weak and when that changes, you will notice. It’s still BTFD. short term: Sideways to up. Look for longs. medium-long term: Down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 5100 trade of the day: Short from the open after bar 37 and exit on a bull bar. Buy the 3 bar reversal (bar 39, 40, 41), latest bar to long 44
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
NMDC Simple Price Action AnalysisNSE:NMDC in the past was in a severe downtrend, then it created the first Bullish Pattern known as a Falling Wedge. Most often falling wedges change the trend and that can be seen in this chart also. Price has started creating Higher highs and Higher lows which is a signal of the beginning of an Uptrend. Hence the expectation is price should continue its upward trajectory. The First Target could be 163, which will be approx. 24.90% Return on Investment. The Second Target could be 234, which will be around 79.31% Return on Investment. And the Final Target, for now, could be approximately 439, which will be around 236.40%. With this stock, our Earning is not limited to the Return on Investment rather we will also keep on Earning from the Dividends that we will receive from time to time, which will also act as an additional income. Disclaimer: Stock trading is inherently risky and you agree to assume complete and full responsibility for the outcomes of all trading decisions that you make, including but not limited to loss of capital or even provision of additional margin in futures trading. None of the stock trading calls made by Prosenjit should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, nor advice to do so. All comments and posts made by Prosenjit, and employees are for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be used for actual trading.
NSE:NMDCLong
by priceissupreme
2
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - nvidia #2Good evening and i hope you are well. Last time i talked about Nvidia was 1 week ago and Nvidia at 610. Time to revisit and adjust. If you took the trade, you made about 51 points. I anticipated a much bigger and longer sideways to down move than we had but that is not important because i said buy and it was buy and it's still buy. So what's next for the stock? I still don't care if you are Jensen himself and you still think this stock is overbought. My guess would be that most Nvidia employees who are not c-level, sold their stock way below 600 and probably calculate their "loss" in missed gains on a daily/weekly level. Does that mean the stock will stop going up in a parabolic way or even down anytime soon? Guess . The thing about FOMO rallies is, no one knows where it will end and it can go so much higher and longer than anyone would have ever guessed. That does not mean it can't go the other direction for a quick 10% in a matter of hours as well. Why? One reason for this behavior could always be that most traders who are long in them, think this rally is a gift from the heavens and keep a tight stop. So if we get one big bear bar, we might as well get a couple or at least sideways movement. What more perfect occurence that the next earnings release is only 13 trading days away. Enough bearish talk. This stock is just going up and there is no reason why this can't continue for another 1-2 weeks. I have painted some rough targets above where some profit taking could occur. Big round numbers are always good for that. I have some calculated targets around 700. If market keeps giving, 800 is not out of the question and there is also a "complete insanity move" target at around 900 but if you bet on that... Don't know what to tell you. That's the hail mary throw of throws. short term: up medium-long term: I try hard to push any bias aside an focus only on the price action for this parabolic rally. It's unsustainable and will require some sort of correction the next weeks to months but when and how deep? No. One. Knows. So i won't pretend i do. You have to wait until it happens and then see how it unfolds to calculate targets. If you try to pick tops here, you are as good as broke. Have a great sunday
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by priceactiontds
1
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - wti crude oilGood evening and i hope you are well. Here my commentary from last week: The bulls got their big breakout and we made 4.65 points last week. The next obvious target is 80 where i expect sideways movement. I also don’t think we can get there without a pullback first. Target for that pb is around 76.5 - 77. We can also just trade sideways in a tighter range but i think a retest of the 2023-12 high is an obvious magnet. Bull case: Last weeks bull case was good for Globex open on Monday and that marked the high of the week and we sold off 7.5 points. Bulls have nothing until market finds clear support and that will probably take some days. Arguments for bulls are 2 trend lines, one we already touched Friday and bounced a bit but weak arguments at best. At 70 should be big resistance but this sell off is very strong. Bulls need to keep this above 70.60 for this to be a higher low. Bear case: Big bear surprise for me this week. But since we are at support lines and bears did not print a lower low, i lean neutral. Bears need a break below and if they can get it, chances of a measured move down rise. Target could be 65 but let’s take this one by one. First target is 70. outlook last week: “sideways to down for a pullback but market is clearly always in long for now. so pullbacks will fail and we trade higher to at least 79.5 or 80.” → Well, pretty decent for about 2 seconds after Globex open on Monday. Big bear surprise for me. Bad outlook. short term: Sideways to down - Market needs to find support and i doubt it’s the bull channel. Big support is probably around 70. medium-long term: Sideways until clear break of range between 70-80
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - sp500 e-miniGood evening and i hope you are well. Today markets bounced where i expected them and bears did not get the follow through they needed. Here is my quote on that from yesterdays after hour update: But the more probable scenario is that bears will get disappointed tomorrow and we range more days at the highs. And that brings us to, what’s next? Big up, big down, big confusion. Trading range. But i do think that sp500 is the only big us index that did not make a new ath compared to the dow and nasdaq and all my bullish targets lead to a new one above 5000. So my bias continues to be bullish. bull case: I mentioned the odds of bears getting follow through were low and that’s why the sp500 rallied 60+ points today. Market closed exactly at the high of the day and after hours pump continues after earnings report. Maybe Apple misses and market gives some back but who bets on that? So i lean heavily bullish into tomorrow for 5000. bear case: Hard to make it tbh. Best bears can hope for is a continuation of the range between 4860 to 4960. short term: Sideways to up - my target of 5000 is still valid. medium-long term: Down - what would change that? Two consecutive daily closes above 5100. Adding to long term shorts here at the highs. trade of the day: Buying the double bottom bar 2 + 11 and hold. Good for 60 points and after hours another 15.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - nasdaqGood evening and i hope you are well. Bears got good follow through today but i think they need one more red day to switch the market to always in short. What are the odds of that? Well, markets normally don’t go from bull trend to bear trend but one could argue we are in a trading range at the top. So it’s not out of the question. But the more probable scenario is that bears will get disappointed tomorrow and we range more days at the highs. nasdaq Pretty similar to dax but bears pushed it down more but also at bigger support now than dax. bull case: Bulls see this as a two legged pullback and now a low 2 at the daily 20ema and multiple bull trend lines. They see this as a great buying opportunity at the fair price (average price) and want a retest or now ath above 17794. On the 1h chart they also see 3 clear pushed down today and they managed to produce an expanding triangle which is trading range behavior and not bear trend behavior. bear case: Bears see the gap on the daily as a sell signal and they want to break out of the bull channel/wedge. First target below the daily 20ema would be the 50% pullback at around 17050. short term: sideways to up - i doubt bears will get their follow through tomorrow and we test at least the 1h 20ema again - currently around 17400. 1h close below 17200 and i will look for shorts for 17050ish medium-long term: down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 17300. adding to long term shorts here at the highs trade of the day: short from the open - 15m 20ema was good here and selling the fed pump to 17480
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Long
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - alibabaGood evening and i hope you are well. I do the occasional price action analysis of individual stocks and today i try to get my opinion across for alibaba or the death of capital as i see it. I think mostly trapped bulls will click on this, having hopes that someone besides them think "IT JUST CAN'T GO LOWER AND IT HAS TO RALLY". The only question right now for this stock is, what comes first: Touch of monthly 20ema or 60 ? Who knows. I surely don't and neither do you. Right now bulls are making some tails below bars but the last time a month printed above the previous one was 2023-07. I drew 2 bear trend lines which make me think the odds of trading to 60 are higher than going up. I have zero hope for this until 60 or lower is tested multiple times and it then manages to trade above the monthly 20ema again.
NYSE:BABAShort
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - goldGood evening and i hope you are well. Today most markets ranged as expected and bears could not make bulls doubt higher prices. Nasdaq was the weakest, while the dow printed new all time highs. The earnings reported after hours seem that they won’t help the bears much either. Sure, nasdaq sold off today but it’s still making higher lows and i don’t expect bears to be able to trade it below 17400 for now. gold Quote from weekly update: short term: sideways to up for touch of the upper triangle line around 2040, which continues to be heavy resistance Bulls took over since Friday and printed multiple higher highs and higher lows, yet bears sold every high aggressively. But bears need to do more to stop bulls from making higher highs. bull case: Bulls touched 2067 today which was 5 points below 2023 close. Bulls target remains the same, retest of 2023-12 high at 2152. They managed to close above the daily 20ema but the bar is not bullish due to the big tail above. Hard to make a bull case here. Daily close above 2060 would change that. bear case: Bears managed to make today’s bar look weak with a big tail above. They want to break the bull channel and trade below 2040 again. That would bring them below all of my important 20ema time frames and at some point the bulls will give up on trying to get back above 2100. The 2152 high is so far away and they tried so many times now that with every day i think the odds turn more to the bear side. short term: sideways but in a big range, probably 2040 - 2070 medium-long term: bearish odds raised imo and i want to see a daily close below 2040 first. Below 2000 turns this into always in short (full bear mode) trade of the day: keep selling new highs but buy 1h 20ema
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good evening and i hope you are well. Today markets continued the bear slaughter and given the very strong bull closes, we can expect more bullish price action and probably blow off tops. sp500 Most bullish of em all. Here my quote from yesterday: Market only gained 60 points which seems after last weeks rally of about 120 points, too little. Bulls sure tried but prices above 4900 are not eagerly bought. In my opinion it’s the strongest index this week and the one with the highest odds of printing higher to retest the ath 5028. Bull case: Market has reasonable targets above and they are in a reachable distance. Bulls saw last week as a buy signal and this week produced follow through. We closed above 4900 which is kinda bullish but not as strong as it could have been. But as long as bulls printing higher highs and higher lows, bulls have all the arguments on their side. short term: i’m neutral here because of Fridays close. both sides can get a breakout so probably sideways Do not look for shorts. Clear breakout and follow through. Bulls wont stop until we print 5000 and if they can get 5000, they retest the 5028.25. Measured move target from the rally starting bar 41 is 4998.75. Coincidence? Sure. 50% pullback is exactly the previous January high at 4934. So Probably pullback first then blow off top imo. bear case: Only if we trade back below 4913 i look for bear arguments and i can only see this happen with most big earnings tomorrow missing big time. What are the odds of that? Can’t think of anything lower probability for now. short term: maybe a pullback to 4935 but that’s probably it. just look for longs. strongly bullish. medium-long term: down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 5030 trade of the day: 4913 was strong support and we had a double bottom bar 17 + 41. Had to go long bar 42 for at least up to 4922. Was good for 40 points if you held into close.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - nvidiaGood morning and i hope you are well. Let's talk some Nvidia. I don't care if you are Jensen himself and think this stock is overbought. There is nothing, i repeat: nothing , bearish about this chart at all. I'm a price action trader so please keep your macro analysis to yourself. This stock is producing gaps above ath's so just don't waste brain capital on looking for shorts. I painted some long ideas and my next best guess on what bullish pattern could play out. And some have the 700 area as a target. I will always try to be a bear and look for arguments for a bear case. Looking at the chart, there is literally nothing on why you should be a bear. So i have to write something i think is mostly fairy dust. Bears could pray for "bad" earnings or at least a bad market reaction to the earnings. Even if that is what is going to happen, you should ask yourself, what are the odds that this goes from probably the most bullish stock on the planet to a stock in a bear trend? That's as low probability as it gets and you can't trade this profitably. Multiple bull trend lines, gaps and retest have to happen first, become the market is convinced that the high is clearly in. Obviously a black swan event can always happen and everything i wrote goes out the window. short term: do you really need me to say it. medium-long term: trickier, because do you want to buy into consecutive ridiculous buy climaxes? does it mean the stock will go down anytime soon? both a big no from my side so if you are not long already, you are trapped out. that's it. you need to let it go and wait for better risk:reward trades. this has nothing to do with longing this for intraday trades. Have a great sunday
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by priceactiontds
8