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#202405 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - oilGood evening and i hope you are well. wti crude oil Here my commentary from last week: If you have read the gold one, this one is self explanatory i think. Market is compressing prices and will soon break out. Which direction? Guess. Your’s is as good as mine. I won’t say more about it. Breakout will come soon, so if you haven’t played the range so far, you should not start now because the odds of a breakout rise daily. The bulls got their big breakout and we made 465 points last week. The next obvious target is 80 where i expect sideways movement. I also don’t think we can get there without a pullback first. Target for that pb is around 76.5 - 77. We can also just trade sideways in a tighter range but i think a retest of the 2023-12 high is an obvious magnet. Bull case: Clear breakout of the triangle and they want a measured move up to 84. First more reachable target is the 50% pullback from the big bear trend which started 2023-10 and that is around 79 and where i expect more sideways trading. If bulls can keep this above the daily 20ema, i expect they will go for the measured move target of the triangle which we broke out of, to around 84. Bear case: They see this as a leg inside a trading range 68 - 80 and there are 2 potential bull channels and we are at the top of both. Bears want a strong reversal and trading back to the tight bull channel bottom at around 76. They also see 3 clear pushes up inside that channel and have reasonable arguments to short up here and make bulls want to take profits. outlook last week: “neutral (means sideways)” → bad outlook, since we got a big bull breakout short term: sideways to down for a pullback but market is clearly always in long for now. so pullbacks will fail and we trade higher to at least 79.5 or 80. medium-long term: odds for higher prices (up until maybe 90) raised significantly but i want to see market trading above 80 first. above 80 i turn full bull for 90 or higher.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - wti crude oilGood evening and i hope you are well. Here is a quote from my substack on Monday about oil: "Most interesting market today. I do believe its a breakout of the bear channel, beginning 2023-09, if bulls can generate follow through tomorrow/Wednesday. The trend line on higher time frames is more of an area than a narrow line with exact prices. But we are there and had a strong bull day. This could be leg 2 of a 3 legged move and a measured move target could bring us to around 80 again. That would certainly make a whole lot of bears cover and fuel the rally probably further. I’d be very cautious with shorts here and look for strength. short term: sideways to up" Being prepared pays. Daily close above 75 and market is accelerating. 80 is my next target but i don’t think we get there without a pullback first. PB could be deep to the lower bull wedge around 75.5 but if we get there, the odds that it holds are excellent. short term: very short term, sideways to down but ultimately bullish for target 80. from there i wait for market to show new impulse. medium-long term: up trade of the day: that 1h 20ema held since Wednesday before us open. look for longs.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - s&p500 e-mini futuresnot breaking down means acceptance of higher prices Good evening and i hope you are well. Markets can’t print lower lows and i will stick to my bullish thesis for another leg upwards until bears do. Another day at the highs raises the odds for the bulls, not bears. The rally looks bigger in this chart than it is, we made 26 points from the low, so don’t get too excited. I highly doubt we can break above the range that easily and expect another pullback before more up, but i do think we will print 5000 in the next 1-2 weeks. Today’s choppy price action on lower tf was a good day to look more often on higher timeframes to see the bigger picture. short term: sideways to up medium-long term: down trade of the day: long the midday low just barely above yesterdays low to make 25 points. could have been that easy but the lower tf price action was nasty
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - daxGood evening and i hope you are well. After such strong rallies, markets tends to form trading ranges instead of another trend in whatever direction. So today, we chopped back and forth. Which is bad for the bears because that means acceptance of higher prices. Only question is then, how high? Most indexes have obvious targets above, which i gave in my weekly outlook. I also said market is currently bullish and today further confirmed my thesis. dax Dax is inside a big triangle from the recent bull trend and the upper bear channel visible on the daily chart. Today was uneventful since we close 9 points above the open price. The tricky thing on a day like today is, that the 2 to 3 legged moves inside the range look strong with good looking signal bars that just turn around at support & resistance, tricking traders into believing a breakout is about to happen. That’s just something will learn to read with hard earned experience. Nothing else. short term: sideways to up medium-long term: down trade of the day: short from the open to globex gap close and test of fridays open and the long above bar 55 to todays open price. that could have been 150-200 points
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURLong
by priceactiontds
dax - a weekly priceaction recap and outlookGood evening and welcome to the 2024 early bull games. Something like that bears must have felt thursday and friday. S&P500 & Nasdaq futures are breaking out big time and are on their way printing new all time highs. That being said i still think the moves are part of their respective monthly trading ranges and we won’t trade far above. dax cfd Dax was early with the consecutive new ath’s and is now lagging a bit behind the bullish price action on us indices. So the biggest question into next week is, will we break above the smaller bear channel and join the us rally or are dax bulls done and every rip get’s sold? We had 3 legs down inside the bear channel, broke out of the triangle to the downside but bulls closed at the friday highs and above the daily 20ema. For me to complete this market cycle (trading range after the big rally from october), would be another touch of the upper bear channel. Which one? Doesn’t matter but i think the higher one around 16970ish will get touched or broken. Why? Let’s talk bull case first: Bears could not produce lower prices or big consecutive bear days below the 20ema. Bear channel held and bulls just bough everything under 16700. Bears tried 3 times and now they will probably give up to short higher again. Thursday and friday printed consecutive bull bars and it’s a buy signal. They want a retest of the ath or at least trade back to upper channel lines. Bear case: The ath at 17199.5 was done with a big gap up and the daily closed deeply red. Since then every attemp at 17000 was rejected. Not really surprising after printing multiple new ath’s in the last weeks. Bears see the the break below the triangle as confirmation for lower prices and thursday + friday as a retest of that breakout. They do not want the market to close above the smaller bear channel line around 16800 otherwise bulls will see this as a buy signal. outlook last week: sideways - good outlook since we closed a bit below last week short term: probably up but just slighty in my odds. if friday was a bull trap and bears can get strong selling pressure, i look for shorts. but i would also not be surprised if we close monday above 17000. medium-long term: down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 17300
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURLong
by priceactiontds
2024-01-18 - a daily price action after hour update - nasdaq Good evening and i hope you had a good trading day. Bulls took over in the globex session and we never looked back. Yesterday i said in my short term outlook that we go up and we did. nasdaq e-mini futures Most bullish indix of em all. Many of the same as dax for today. Nq just reached higher prices. We are trading 38 points below the december high and i think we will get there. Can we touch the big upper wedge? Probably. Bull case is the 400 point rally from the weekly low yesterday which could easily go to the wedge line around 17250. Bulls even bought the 160 point dip midday to close at the highs. Bear case is that this is a trading range from 16950 to 17120. The selloff from bar 43 to 50 was deep enough to dampen the euphoric rally. We are also at the highs of the wedge on the daily tf. They also argue that this is a trading range inside a bigger one between 16450 to 17130. So the question is, how much more room is there for the bulls despite the selling pressure? I think the most reasonable case is, that above 17100 there were many trapped bulls from the december high who will gladly use this rally to exit out of their longs and that’s another reason why i think the upside is limited. But i also thought NVIDIA at 400$ was high enough, so bulls might just continue to dance until the music stops. short term: sideways to down (weakly held and i will long on big bull bars) medium-long term: big down New swing short position opened for nasdaq. I think shorting above 17000 on higher timeframes is a no brainer.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
2024-01-18 - dax price action update Good Morning, i could see dax breaking out of this bull channel to rally upwards. I'd look only for longs here. Here is my recap from yesterday after hours to give more context: Let’s look at the 1h tf because today closed 10 points above the opening price. That tell’s you enough. Opex sold off 100 points to eu open and bulls could not get this above 16560. Bears tried multiple times to push this below 16500 but every attempt was bought. One side tries to push the market into a direction just so many times before they give up. This brings us to an adjusted big lower bear channel line so market is free to move up imo. We will trade sideways to up in the globex session which would bring the 1h 20ema closer or we can get above it. More reasons why we market could go up. Bar 10 + 16 today formed a double bottom and bar 16 + 19 could already have set the new bull channel upwards. If you look at the daily chart, you can clearly see 3 pushes down and an expanding triangle. Lows from 2023-12-18 + 2024-01-05 + 2024-01-17. Do i have a short term bear case? Not really, i think the odds that we break below that channel and close low are below 25%. short term: up medium-long term: down
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURLong
by priceactiontds
2024-01-17 - a daily price action after hour update - nasdaq Good evening and i hope you are well. We continue the big downs and big ups. Both sides can make money yet bears manage to make lower lows and lower highs. nasdaq e-mini futures Tricky. Bears making new lows but bulls buying it all and closing at the highs. Yet they did not manage to trade above yesterdays open and the globex high. I do think the move from 16689 up was strong enough to get a measured move to around 17000 but bulls first target tomorrow is 1h close above 16900. We clearly broke above of the triangle and the tight new bull channel could get us above 16900. Bears see it as a two legged move inside a broad bear channel. They will try to keep it under 16900 and close the week below 16700 or maybe even touch the lower bull wedge line from early december + early january at around 16600. That beeing said. Bears still can not close below the daily 20ema which is bullish. Bulls want a retest of the december high at 17165 and keep the big bull wedge alive. short term: sideways but can break out both ways again. we currently go up and down almost every day medium-long term: down
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
Axis Bank Simple Price Action Analysis BullishNSE:AXISBANK is in an Uptrend making continuous HHs and HLs in the Candlestick Chart. With these HH and HL, the price has created two Bullish Patterns in this Chart: A Cup and Handle Pattern which is a Continuation Pattern, and a Right-Angled Descending Broadening Triangle. We also have a few Trap Zones in this chart; hence my expectation is that the Price of Axis Bank should go up and make another HH. Looking at a Target of 164 that is approx. 12% Return on Investment.
NSE:AXISBANKLong
by priceissupreme
Bajaj-Auto Simple Price Action Analysis BullishNSE:BAJAJ_AUTO is in an Up-Trend and it is continuously creating Higher Highs and Higher Lows on the Candlestick Chart. As there is no Trend Change signal, hence the expectation is that it will continue its Up-Trend by creating a new Higher Low in this Chart. Price can test the Trendline and the last Resistance before going up. So, we should think of Buying this Stock at every Dip and holding it till 5599. This will give a Return on Investment between 20% to 29% in just a few days.
NSE:BAJAJ_AUTOLong
by priceissupreme
I would enter these kind of trades any dayHere is my chart on the long term using price action on the daily chart as my cue. These trades are long dated, but the risk to reward is quite massive. From what I see, it likes to target liquidity and raid those stop losses. Currently, I am looking at a short entry with a limited stop loss to target lower recent lows. There are quite a bit of trades you can get with different targets. It took a little refining of my old charts and more focused on a longer time perspective rather than trading the bounces in between.
AMEX:SPYShort
by vietuser619
1
Adaniports Simple Price Action AnalysisNSE:ADANIPORTS Bad News vs. a Trap Level. This stock is continuously making HH and HL in the chart and currently hovering inside a Trap Zone. The expectation is it will go up to 892.85/-, which will make this Trade a Reward to Risk of 2.5:1 and approx 10.56% Return on Investment from the Current Market price (807.55). Disclaimer: Stock trading is inherently risky and you agree to assume complete and full responsibility for the outcomes of all trading decisions that you make, including but not limited to loss of capital or even provision of additional margin in futures trading. None of the stock trading calls made by Prosenjit should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, nor advice to do so. All comments and posts made by Prosenjit, and employees are for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be used for actual trading.
NSE:ADANIPORTSLong
by priceissupreme