"USDJPY Crashing from Premium FVG | Liquidity Grab Confirmed!"USDJPY Analysis 🧠 | 15M Timeframe
Price tapped deep into the Premium Area, perfectly aligning with a high-probability Fair Value Gap (FVG) and Order Block confluence.
We witnessed a strong bearish reaction — classic Smart Money move in action.
Key Observations:
Price surged aggressively into the Premium Zone (~79% retracement area).
Immediate bearish reaction from the red Fair Value Gap zone.
Liquidity sweep confirmed above the previous Strong High.
Discount Area below remains unfilled, offering juicy targets.
🧠 Smart Money Concept Insight:
Institutions love to bait breakout traders by pumping into Premium Zones.
After collecting stop orders and liquidity above highs, they aggressively reverse, aiming to rebalance into the Discount Area.
USDJPY delivered a textbook liquidity grab before the sharp drop!
Current Trading Plan:
Bearish bias remains intact after the strong reaction.
TP1: Mid Discount Area
TP2: Weak Low liquidity sweep zone
SL (for any new shorts): Above the Strong High
Remember:
📚 Premium = Look for Sell Opportunities
📚 Discount = Look for Buy Opportunities
Stay laser-focused on Smart Money footprints, not noise.
📉 Emotions out, execution sharp!
Priceaction
"USDJPY | Smart Money Premium Trap | Mitigation Block Rejection"⚡ USDJPY Analysis – 30M Timeframe | April 30, 2025
📊 Price Action Summary:
USDJPY has aggressively tapped into the Premium Zone, aligning perfectly with a Mitigation Block and Fibonacci 61.8% golden pocket.
We’re seeing early signs of Smart Money rejection — time to stay sharp! 🧐
🔥 Key Moves:
Premium Zone Entry: Price retraced right into the 61.8–70.5% fib region.
Mitigation Block respected: A known Smart Money zone where trapped sellers from previous moves get wrecked.
Liquidity Build-Up Below: Eyes on the unprotected lows — Smart Money LOVES to grab those.
🧠 What’s Really Going On Behind the Scenes:
Retail traders: "It’s bouncing! Let’s go long!" 🟢💸
Smart Money: "Perfect… let’s trap them for liquidity." 🧊📉
This move screams classic Premium Trap — draw them in, then nuke it. ☠️
🧩 Why This Setup Matters:
Mitigation Block + FVG combo = High-probability rejection zone
Sellers are likely reloading positions here
The Strong High has been established — room to target Weak Lows below
🎯 Trade Setup Idea:
Entry: Inside or just below the Mitigation Block (confirmation from bearish rejection)
Stop Loss: Just above the Strong High (~142.813)
Take Profit Zones:
TP1: Mid-discount (~141.400)
TP2: Weak Low (~139.899) — the real liquidity target 🎯
💬 Pro Tip:
"Mitigation blocks are the sniper’s nest for Smart Money. Get in, get out, get paid." 🎯
Watch the reaction closely inside the purple zone. It’s not just a block — it’s a liquidity recycling station.
🚀 Summary:
✅ Price entered Premium
✅ Mitigation Block tested
✅ Liquidity below waiting
✅ High RRR bearish setup aligning
🧘♂️ Be patient. Wait for confirmation. Let Smart Money leave the trail — then follow.
✍️ Save this chart and study how Mitigation Blocks get respected over and over. It’s not magic — it’s mechanics.
➡️ Comment "SNEAKY SHORT" if you're watching the block trap unfold!
➡️ Tag a trader who still doesn’t believe in Premium/Discount theory. 😂📉📈
Micron Technology - The Chart Is Still Perfect!Micron Technology ( NASDAQ:MU ) will reverse right here:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
If you actually want to explain technical analysis to somebody, just show them the chart of Micron Technology. Almost every structure makes perfect sense, with this stock respecting all major trendlines and horizontal levels and with the current support area, the bottom is now in.
Levels to watch: $70, $210
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Equity Research Report – NEWGEN SOFTWARE TECHNOLOGIES Short-Term View: A strong breakout above key resistance at ₹1,100 with volume surge indicates bullish momentum. Price reclaimed the 50 EMA after consolidation. RSI at 60.87 supports strength; next resistance lies near ₹1,193.90.
Long-Term View: Structurally strong after correction. Sustaining above ₹1,020 (50 EMA) may attract fresh buying. Long-term targets can stretch to ₹1,300+ if earnings and demand trends remain favorable.
Conclusion: Bullish momentum likely to continue both short and long term. Watch for volume confirmation and hold above ₹1,100.
For Education Purpose only
Is Platinum About to Explode? Imminent Rally!Platinum (PL1!) is currently in a technically and macroeconomically compelling setup. After a prolonged consolidation between 872–921, price has reacted strongly, forming a clear accumulation pattern supported by institutional positioning and favorable seasonality.
📈 1. Technical Analysis: Accumulation and Potential Breakout
The weekly chart shows a strong demand zone that has been defended multiple times over the past year. Following a deep pullback in April, price has formed a harmonic compression structure and broke to the upside with conviction. The area between 1010 and 1040 stands out as the first major historical supply zone — previously rejected but now looking increasingly vulnerable.
📉 2. COT Report: Institutions Repositioning Long
The COT data as of April 22 shows a clear increase in long positions from commercial traders (+1,177 contracts), while non-commercials maintain a net long bias. Total open interest rose by over 1,500 contracts — a strong sign of renewed speculative interest in Platinum.
✅ Conclusion
Platinum is showing strong confluence across technicals, institutional positioning, and historical seasonal behavior. The probability of a bullish extension in Q2 2025 is high. This is a setup worth watching closely in the coming days.
KRYSTAL Integrated Services LtdTechnical View: KRYSTAL is consolidating between ₹520–₹550 after a rally from March lows. A breakout above ₹560 could target ₹600+, while a dip below ₹500 may weaken momentum. RSI shows moderate bullishness.
Fundamental View: FY24 revenue grew ~44% YoY to ₹981 Cr; net profit rose ~26% to ₹48 Cr. ROE ~18%, ROCE ~20%. Recently secured a ₹349 Cr 3-year contract from Tamil Nadu Medical Services.
Action Plan:
Short-term: Buy above ₹560, target ₹600.
Long-term: Attractive valuation; accumulate on dips ₹450–₹500 zone.
XAUUSD Technical Analysis: Bullish and Bearish ScenariosGold (XAUUSD) has exhibited a strong bullish impulse, breaking out of established channel structures. Following a sharp ascent, the price action has entered a consolidation phase near recent highs. This analysis explores potential scenarios based on technical patterns, key levels, and underlying market psychology.
Chart Analysis and Market Psychology
The chart displays a distinct uptrend characterized by ascending channels. Recently, XAUUSD experienced a significant upward thrust, breaking decisively above the shorter-term orange channel. This move reached the projected target derived from this channel's height, near the 3405 level.
Following this peak, price action has formed a tighter consolidation range. This pattern, occurring after a sharp rally and on potentially decreasing volume (as is common in such formations), resembles a bullish continuation pattern, such as a pennant or flag. From a market psychology perspective, this suggests a temporary equilibrium:
Buying Pressure: Bulls who drove the initial breakout may be pausing, absorbing profits taken by earlier entrants, or accumulating new positions in anticipation of further upside. The sharp nature of the preceding rally indicates strong underlying demand and potentially FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) among participants.
Selling Pressure: Sellers are attempting to cap the rally, potentially taking profits or initiating short positions. However, the observation that dips below 3259 were quickly bought suggests that selling pressure has been relatively weak compared to the buying interest defending this level. This rejection indicates that market participants still perceive value at or above this zone, viewing it as a potential support level following the breakout.
The key level currently in focus appears to be around 3259. The price interaction with this level could be crucial in determining the next directional move.
Bullish Scenario
Conditions: For a bullish continuation, the price would ideally need to hold above the 3259 support level. A decisive breakout above the upper boundary of the current consolidation pattern would serve as confirmation.
Psychology: This outcome would suggest that the consolidation phase was indeed accumulative, with buyers absorbing selling pressure and preparing for the next leg higher. It would reinforce the "impatient bulls" and "weak bears" narrative.
Potential Targets:
A retest of the recent highs near 3405.
The target derived from the breakout of the medium-term turquoise channel, located near 3640.
Given the aggressive nature of the preceding rally, an overshoot towards the higher projection at 3839 might become a possibility if bullish momentum remains exceptionally strong after breaking 3640.
Bearish Scenario
Conditions: A failure to hold the 3259 level, coupled with a break below the lower boundary of the consolidation pattern, could signal a potential reversal or a deeper pullback. This might involve price re-entering the previously broken orange channel.
Psychology: This scenario would suggest that the buying pressure was insufficient to sustain the breakout, potentially indicating a "bull trap" or simply a more significant profit-taking wave overwhelming demand at current levels.
Potential Support Zones:
The upper trendline of the orange channel (acting as support after being resistance).
The primary uptrend line (lower boundary) of the orange channel.
The channel line (upper boundary) of the broader turquoise channel, which could coincide with the orange channel's lower boundary, potentially forming a confluence of support.
Concluding Remarks
XAUUSD is at a potential juncture following a strong bullish breakout. The current consolidation pattern holds the key to the next immediate move. Holding above 3259 and breaking the consolidation high could pave the way for further upside towards targets at 3640 and potentially 3839. Conversely, a failure to maintain support at 3259 might trigger a pullback towards the support levels defined by the underlying channel structures. Traders often watch volume closely during the resolution of such patterns for confirmation.
Disclaimer: This report is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Trading involves risk, and decisions should be based on your own research and risk tolerance.
2025-05-01 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Way tougher than it looks. Both sides have good arguments why this continues higher or why today marked the top. I have a heavy bearish bias but I confirmation would only be below 19090 and that’s 700 points down. I do think if bears can close the gap down to 19640, we retest 19300 and there we have the first bull trend line. Below we go for 19100, which was the us gdp spike low and below that is armageddon. Bulls have nothing but continuation of this short squeeze. When Apple earnings disappoint, you know things are about to get real ducking bad next.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 19000 - 20000
bull case: Bulls got 20000 and even went above the April high, now what? Technically still a lower high until they hit 20537. They have going for them that today was the first bear bar after 7 consecutive bull days. They now want to defend the open gaps to keep the momentum going. A pullback can go way deeper than most bulls will be comfortable with, given the current environment. I do think best bulls can hope for tomorrow, is to go sideways and close the week above 20000.
Invalidation is below 19640.
bear case: Bears have all the macro schmackro arguments on their side that you can try to come up with. Structure says bullish until bull trend lines are broken. First is around 19500 and second is the bigger one around 19000. Can bears get to either tomorrow? I do think so yes. This was a nasty short squeeze but we are right under the weekly 20ema, technically still a lower high because the last major lower high was 20536. On the weekly chart this is a textbook two-legged pullback to the moving average and I pray daily that we will get another huge leg down to 15000. How likely is that? For now, very unlikely. Still it would be more fun if the bull trend line from the covid lows would break and we transition into a trading range 15000 - 22000.
Invalidation is above 20140.
short term: Neutral. For tomorrow I can see 20100 not getting hit again and we sell-off. If markets stays above 19700, bulls remain in full control. full bear mode below 19640. Above 20140 we likely go for 20500+.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-04-20: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We are +18% from the lows and I do think, once this turns again, it will easily be the short trade of the year.
trade of the day: Longs near 1h 20ema. Was profitable couple of times. Sell-off into close was insider-trading. Absolutely certain that the earnings were leaked.
USDJPY Daily & H4 Forecasts, Technical Analysis & Trading IdeaTechnical analysis is on the chart!
No description needed!
FX:USDJPY
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GJ-Thu-1/05/25 TDA-BoJ rate unchanged, clean move up!Analysis done directly on the chart
We will never catch every single move.
It's true sometimes can be frustrating but,
learn to control yourself and not FOMOing
is a psychological skill. We often times
underestimate how important is psychology
in trading!
Not financial advice, DYOR.
Market Flow Strategy
Mister Y
Gold Trapped? Everyone’s Long… But Price is Going Down!Gold (XAU/USD) is showing signs of exhaustion after its explosive rally that pushed it beyond $3,400. We are now witnessing a pullback phase, with price directly testing a key demand zone between $3,050 and $2,980. From a technical standpoint, this is the last major defense before a potential drop toward the $2,832 area.
The current bearish pressure is supported by a powerful blend of macro, positioning, and behavioral factors:
COT Report – Gold: Non-commercials (speculators) are aggressively closing long positions and opening shorts, which signals a breakdown in the short-term bullish narrative. On the other hand, commercials (hedgers), also known as the "smart money", are steadily increasing their long exposure, hinting at a potential accumulation zone forming.
COT Report – USD Index: Speculative funds are stacking long positions on the dollar, which continues to add downside pressure on gold. As long as this persists, any upside attempt on XAU/USD will likely face headwinds.
Seasonality: May tends to be historically bullish for gold, but June is seasonally weak. The strongest seasonal window opens between July and August, suggesting the possibility of a deeper pullback before the next bullish wave.
Retail Sentiment: Over 75% of retail traders are long on XAU/USD, typically a contrarian signal. This sets the stage for a classic stop-hunt scenario, where price flushes lower to trigger retail stop-losses before a potential reversal.
📌 Conclusion: In true Bridgewater fashion, we’re seeing a divergence between positioning and price action. In the short term, gold remains vulnerable to a move toward $2,832. However, if that zone holds, it could provide a compelling opportunity to accumulate for a potential summer swing rally toward all-time highs.
2025-04-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Still favoring doing a lower high print but we are close enough to 23000 that market can go higher. No more obvious resistance. A big maybe is the bear gap up to 23050 but that’s a gamble I am not willing to take. Today should have marked the start of the reversal with the huge bear spike but the bull reversal was beyond my comprehension. Can turn bear only below 22300 but I don’t need to long this either. Will only look for shorts on this, that’s why it’s full bear mode from here on.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 21000 - 24000
bull case: Bulls printed a higher April high and closed the month at the highs, which is a strong buy signal going into Friday and next week. The bull trend line from 19000 is valid until broken but the move up is so climactic and in a tight channel, that it’s tough to buy the highs but until bears trap late bulls and get follow-through after a sell spike, bulls are in BTFD mode and it continues to be profitable.
Invalidation is below 21300.
bear case: Bears don’t have much. Today could have been the final flag and we top out soon but we will only know once we drop below 22300 and continue down. For me this is a clear 3 legs up now and I have zero interest in buying up here. Big economies are most likely already in recessions and I think Q1 2025 will be the last decent quarter this year and from here on it’s downhill. Hard. Next big bucks will be made to the down side.
Invalidation is above 23100.
short term: Neutral. Could do 23000 or not. Today was end of month and I will wait and see what the us markets do tomorrow. Dax will be closed. Expecting a huge reversal any day now.
medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Bear trend is ongoing but for now I still think 19500 and below is an amazing buy if you can hold for years. Things will have to turn really bad for this market to find acceptance below the bull trend line from the covid lows and right now this trade war is just front running. Markets were not priced for risk 3 weeks ago but this drop was too much too fast. My bearish targets for this year are met and with the current environment I will not call for lower prices than 19000. If the trade war turns real bad, yeah sure but for now it’s not.
trade of the day: Selling 22700, decent double top and was good for 300 points down. Had to be mentally flexible and not try to hold short while market did a v-reversal. I fought it too much today.
#BEARISH MOVE EXPECTEDIn this analysis we're focusing on 1H time frame for gold. In this analyze we are using downward trendline along with the combination of price action. When price enter in our supply area, so our first step is to observe how price will react and if price give any bearish confirmation then we'll execute our trade. Confirmation is very important.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and proper R:R ratio.
This is my analysis not a financial advice.
#XAUUSD 1H Technical Analysis Expected Move.
BTCUSD | Bearish Rejection from Order Block Zone | Choch Confirm📉 BTCUSD – 30M SMC Breakdown | April 30, 2025
Bitcoin just printed a clean bearish reaction from a high-probability supply zone, aligned with Smart Money tactics.
📍 Technical Breakdown:
Order Block (OB) marked clearly near 95,474 – 95,756, sitting in a premium price zone.
Price returned to this OB after a previous Change of Character (Choch) to the downside — a clear signal of distribution.
The Strong High remains intact — no structural break = institutional control still active.
Rejection wicks and slow momentum near the OB confirm buyer exhaustion.
🎯 Setup Breakdown:
Entry Zone: 95,474 – 95,756
SL: Above 95,800 (invalidates OB)
TP Zone:
TP1: 94,600
TP2: 94,000
TP3: 93,480 (next liquidity pool near the Weak Low)
Risk:Reward ~ 1:3.5+
🧠 Smart Money Insight:
This is where retail traders start buying the breakout — but Smart Money knows better.
They set traps in the OB, then reverse price for maximum stop hunts.
🔁 Market Psychology:
Choch = shift in sentiment
Price retesting OB = liquidity hunt
Weak Low = magnet for future price sweep
This short setup aligns with mitigation + manipulation + distribution.
📌 What to Watch:
If price fails to break Strong High → short bias remains
If we break below 94,600 → hold for full TP at 93,480
Re-entry possible on LTF pullbacks into new internal OBs
🧠 Execution Note:
Be patient — price might dance in OB before melting. Let it reject, confirm, and flow.
🔥 Final Word:
This setup is clean, logical, and follows institutional flow. If you missed the first touch, wait for a lower-timeframe pullback entry.
Smart traders don’t chase price — they let it come to them. 🧘♂️📉
🗣️ Comment “BTC BEAR ZONE” if you caught this short setup.
📥 Save this post — real case study for Smart Money traders.
📡 Share this with your trading group — gems like this don’t show up daily.
USDCAD | Technical Rebound or Final Stop Before the Crash?USDCAD is currently in a highly delicate phase: the price has reached a key weekly demand zone between 1.3720–1.3820, which overlaps with a strong Fibonacci retracement cluster (0.705–0.78) of the previous bullish leg. So far, the reaction has been muted, but price compression and fading volatility suggest a potential short-term rebound.
However, looking at the bigger picture, the macro and positioning signals are flashing red for the US dollar:
📊 COT Report: Non-Commercials are significantly increasing short positions on USD and reducing shorts on CAD → bearish bias on USDCAD
🧠 Retail sentiment: Most retail traders are long on USDCAD → contrarian bearish bias
🗓️ Seasonality: May is historically negative for the USD and positive for the CAD → further confirms the short thesis
Only a structural recovery above 1.4150 on the weekly close would invalidate the bearish setup. Until then, any retracement towards 1.3980–1.4050 should be seen as an opportunity to sell strength.
🎯 Key Levels:
Sell zone: 1.3980–1.4050
Invalidation: Weekly close > 1.4150
Targets: 1.3720 – 1.3550
🔔 Critical note: When everyone is long, often the only direction left is down.