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Drop Base Drop StrategyOur focus is now on a bearish trend in 2H time frame, where we will use the Drop Base Drop (DBD) strategy to execute a sell trade. This strategy aims to understand price action patterns that indicate strong selling opportunities. The first phase involves a significant price decline. When the price drops, it indicates selling pressure in the market. During this period, we should also observe increased volume, which confirms the bearish momentum. After this initial drop, the price enters a consolidation phase, known as the base. This base lasts for some time, where the price remains range-bound. During this time, traders are reassessing the market situation. We need to ensure that there isn’t any significant resistance within the base; otherwise, the bearish trend may fail. . Entry Point: We will open a sell position when the price breaks below the base. . We will set take profit levels based on support zones or previous price action to maximize our profits. . Always ensure you have a stop loss in place to safeguard your investments.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Bullionbuzz
#202443 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax xetra : 4h chart shows a triangle if you adjust the bull trend line from August. It will break out on Monday and I clearly favor the bears to break below and go for 19000. Above 19650 I am wrong and we could see the leg up to 20000. Bear confirmation is only below 19300. Until the breakout, you can either wait or play the tight range. Quote from last week: comment: Bullish was good but the rally is losing steam. We are in the final leg before we probably transition into a trading range before we go down. 20000 is the target for bulls and I expect them to get it one way or the other. Preferred path is a spike followed by huge profit taking. Nothing about the chart is good for bears and I would not even think about shorts, before we see some decent selling again. You never want to be early in a trade as a retail trader. comment: Market closed 200 points lower than last week but was mostly range bound. Bull trend line and the daily 20ema are still intact and we did not get the expected breakout. Market has absolutely no more room to inside the pattern. End of September market was at 19470 so we have a month of going nowhere behind us. Was it bulls scaling into longs for 20000 or bears scaling into shorts because the upside potential is probably very limited? Very likely both. Going into next week I can’t be anything but neutral until we see one side clearly giving up. The one thing that's clear on the weekly chart for the past 12 weeks is that bears only managed to print 1 bear in between bull bars. So 3 out of 13. That is really something and we should not expect it to end until it very clearly does. Don’t try to be the first. current market cycle: Late bull trend. Has likely ended already and we are now in a trading range. key levels: 19000 - 20000 bull case: We learned nothing last week, other that market is in balance at 19500. Bulls need to stay above 19320 to keep the trend alive and their target is 20000. How likely is follow through buying above 20000 and another bull break above for much higher prices? I can’t think of anything less likely tbh. That obviously does not mean it can not happen. I was wrong about the top a couple of times in the past 3 years. Invalidation is below 19300. bear case: If you look at this chart and go “I really want to short this right now”, dm me and let’s do a remote counselling session. You are so out of touch with the market, that there has to be deeper stuff going on inside you, causing that. Nothing about this is bearish and until we see actual selling pressure, we should not waste brain capacity on bearish thoughts. 19300 is the clear target for a daily close below. Once bears have that, we will likely test down to 19000 and there we have a big decision. Market can either find new buyers there in hopes of 20000 or most bulls are done for the year and let it go. Below 19000, nothing can save this until 18000. That is the lowest I can see this go this year and even that price is very unlikely. Invalidation is above 19400. outlook last week: short term: Bullish for 20000. Can see a pullback first or not. We are in the middle of the channel, which is always a bad spot. Trade momentum or long a decent pullback. → Last Sunday we traded 19779 and now we are at 19463. Wrong outlook. Thesis still stands. If we keep above 19300, market wants 20000. short term: Neutral. Clear levels to break for both sides. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. Right now there is no selling pressure. I am confident that we will hit 17000 in 2025 but timing is more important than price, so let’s not waste brain capital on being bearish for now. current swing trade: None chart update: Adjusted the potential two legged correction
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
#202443 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 : Multiple ways to draw triangles and bull wedges on the daily chart. It has room to go more sideways but Friday’s reversal was so strong an market closed at the lows, that I think many bulls have enough reason to be disappointed and will exit once we break below 5800 and then we will likely see 5750 next. Above 5905 I am wrong and this will likely be the leg to 6000. Quote from last week: comment: Monday made the 50 points higher and that’s all bulls achieve last week. We had two pause bars on the daily chart with Tuesday and Thursday but that was not enough to put doubt in bulls minds that this rally is over. 6000 is the target and, same as dax, we will likely hit it one way or the other. comment: Another disappointing week for the bulls. Big question now is the same as for dax and nq, was this the last before a deeper pullback or can we print 6000 before 5700? I don’t know and I am not going to pretend I do. Market is in breakout mode and the triangle has a bit more room to go. We simply need more price action because right now the market is in balance around 5870. current market cycle: nested bull wedges and a minor triangle from past 2 weeks key levels: 5800 - 6000 bull case: 6000 is the target. Bulls now tried many times to break above 5930 but continue to fail. Same reasoning as for dax. Can the market find more buyers above 5900 next time we get there or do we have to pull back down to 5730 first? Until we see a daily close below 5800, bulls are still favored, since we are only closing above the daily 20ema. Invalidation is below 5800. bear case: Bears are printing weak bear bars and can not close below the daily ema. Pure guesswork as of now, which side will give up first. We will very likely get a bigger move next week, so don’t blow your account until then. If bears move strongly below 5800, 5730 is next and there it’s big decision time if we see 6000 or not. Invalidation is above 6050. outlook last week: short term: Neutral between 5870 - 5930 and bullish above 5930 for 6000. → Last Sunday we traded 5906 and now we are at 5846. Most of the week was neutral, and we closed just 60 points lower than last week. short term: Neutral. Bearish below 5820 for 5800, below 5800 we likely see 5730. Bullish above 5860 for 5880+ and above 5930 we will see 6000. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess. current swing trade: None chart update: Removed wave count
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
#202443 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold: Clear two legged pullback on the 4h chart. Could be enough for the bulls to take control again and go for 2800 on Monday/Tuesday. If they fail below 2780 again, we could see a more complex pullback down to 2700. Market is clearly still max bullish and I doubt we see better selling until we hit 2800 or even 3000. Quote from last week: comment: Bullish it was and still is. 2800 is the next big target to hit. After 4 very strong consecutive bull bars, you can not hold a bearish thought while the market makes daily new ath. Two upper bull trend lines are still to hit, one of them leads to 2760 and the other to 2800. On the monthly chart we are in a 8 month micro channel upwards without any selling pressure. At some point market will pull back more and we will see a correction but until we see much greater selling pressure, we can not trade on hope. comment: Minor pullback by the bears but they can not get follow through selling and that is why we can only conclude higher prices. We are trading near the top of the bull channel but we can just continue to do so until we hit 2800, which is my next upper target. I do think around 2800 we will see some bigger profit taking. current market cycle: very strong bull trend (trade the channel until it is clearly broken) key levels: 2650 - 2800 bull case: All arguments are on the bull side, again. 2800 is the target. Anything below 2680 would surprise me. I don’t expect much interest from buyers above 2800 though. Invalidation is below 2680. bear case: Bears got nothing. Again. Daily 20ema is at 2700 and the lower bull channel line is not far from that. If bears get there before 2800, that would surprise me and I do not think those two supports have a decent chance of being broken. If they somehow manage to do so, 2620 would be the next support. I do not have any bearish thoughts about this market until we see 2800 and then much more sideways movement to conclude that market found resistance. Invalidation is above 2820. outlook last week: short term: Bullish for 2800+ → Last Sunday we traded 2730 and now we are at 2754. Meh outlook. Still not 2800 but we are probably getting there next week. short term: Bullish for 2800. Again. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22 : Very strong breakout above, again. Market currently has no ceiling. Most likely 2800 next and I do think 3000 could be a potential target if we continue. There is certainly an argument for a measured move based on the bull rally from 2018-08 to 2020-08. current swing trade: None chart update: None
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by priceactiontds
#202443 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: Dead zone 70 - 72. Best not to trade it and wait for the breakout. I have no opinion on who wins it. For me to believe the bullish breakout to be good, I need to see follow through selling above 73, otherwise it could still be just a retest of the previous support. Quote from last week: comment: Bulls started ok on Monday and the close was neutral but Tuesday really killed every last bull who bought above 71 and hoped for a second leg up above 75. Market has now left a giant bearish island reversal between 71 and 72.5 and that is as bearish as it gets. Bulls last hope now is to hold above the bull trend line at 68. comment: Bulls actually managed to hold it above 68 and the trend line but failed to close the bear gap completely. This leaves us in nowhere land between 70-72 and a proper triangle. Play that until it’s clearly broken. No more deeper analysis needed. current market cycle: trading range (triangle on the weekly tf) key levels: 63 - 78 bull case: Bulls need a daily close above 72.7 for a chance of retesting north of 75. Below 68 things get really spicy. Invalidation is below 68. bear case: Bears need a daily close below the bull trend lines (also head & shoulders neckline) for lower prices. First would be below 69 and second is below 68. If they manage that, market is free to test down to 66 and then 64. If the neckline breaks, measured move would be 59ish but that is very far fetched. Invalidation is above 72.7. outlook last week: short term : Neutral 68-70 but leaning bearish near 71. Not the best spot to trade currently. → Last Sunday we traded 68.69 and now we are at 71.78. Decent outlook. short term: Neutral 68-70 but leaning bearish near 71. Not the best spot to trade currently. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20 : No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates. current swing trade: None chart update: Adjusted bear gap
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
#202443 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr bitcoin: 65000 - 69000 dead zone for me. I was wrong with my bear thesis so far and doing nothing right now is the wisest choice. Below 65000 bears are favored and above 70000, we likely print new ath. Quote from last week: comment: Neutral I called it and neutral it still is. Market continues to oscillate around the daily 20ema at 62000. Don’t try to look for deeper meaning in this. There is none. Wait for a breakout or trade the range. I won’t waste more time writing about this tight trading range. comment: If you read it all and made it to this section, I thank you for reading and won’t bore you with this. It’s a triangle nested inside a bull wedge. Wait for the triangle to break above 65000 or above 70000. Bull wedge could get us to 71000+ and if bulls fail, next support is the bull trend line around 63000. current market cycle: Nested triangle inside bull wedge key levels: 60000 - 70000 bull case: Bulls need a daily close above 70000. Don’t make this more complicated. Market has no clear direction for 2 weeks now. Invalidation is below 66000. bear case: Bears need a daily close below 65000. That’s it. That’s all I care to write about this. Invalidation is above 70000. outlook last week: short term: Neutral inside given range, bearish below and bullish above. Will see a bigger move Monday/Tuesday. → Last Sunday we traded around 62640 and now we are at 68390. Bad outlook. short term: Neutral. Sue me. Clear invalidation levels. Wait for the breakout. If this prints above 70000 it will probably be an amazing short opportunity. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-06 : Something between 49000 and 70000. Big surprise, I know. I don’t know if we get a breakout of this range in 2024 again. current swing trade: None chart update: Added triangle and removed wave counts.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by priceactiontds
SasanSeifi| Will It Break Above the $2685 High?Hey there, ✌ In the daily timeframe, as seen on the chart OANDA:XAUUSD , gold's price started an upward movement from the $2300 range and reached a new all-time high (ATH) around $2685. After hitting this peak, the price entered a consolidation phase with a slight pullback that extended to the $2600 area. Currently, we see that the price has rebounded from the $2600 level due to increased demand, pushing it higher towards $2,657. The medium- and long-term outlook leans towards further upward movement, with potential targets at $2700, $2725, $2750, $2790, and $2,800. In the daily timeframe, maintaining the support range between $2600 and $2570 is crucial for sustaining the bullish trend. A likely scenario is that if the price stabilizes above $2660 and $2675, it could break the previous high and move toward the mentioned targets, as illustrated in the chart. To gain a better understanding of the future trend, it's important to monitor how the price performs in the early days of the market. Additionally, if bullish momentum weakens and confirmations appear in lower timeframes, there could be a chance of range-bound movement or a retracement towards the support levels. This analysis is my personal viewpoint and not financial advice. If you found this helpful, please like and comment – I’d love to hear your thoughts! Happy trading! ✌😊
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SasanSeifi
"EUR/USD Approaching Critical Support1. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance: The price has previously faced resistance near 1.10409 and 1.09127 (marked by horizontal purple lines). The recent peak suggests that 1.10409 is a strong resistance level where sellers may exert pressure. Support: The price has bounced around the 1.07532 level, which acts as a key support zone. This level aligns with the trendline support, making it a crucial area for potential bullish reversals. 2. Descending Triangle Pattern The chart shows a descending triangle pattern, formed by the downward-sloping resistance line and the trendline support. This setup typically indicates bearish momentum, where a breakdown below the support could lead to further downside movement. 3. Moving Averages Multiple moving averages (e.g., 20, 50, and 100-day) are visible, showing a recent bearish crossover. The price currently trades below these averages, hinting at continued bearish sentiment. 4. Volume Analysis Recent volume bars suggest higher selling pressure, especially as the price approaches the support region. Increased volume during a breakdown could confirm further bearish action. 5. Potential Scenarios Bearish Breakdown: A close below the 1.07532 level, accompanied by strong volume, could lead to a continuation of the downtrend, possibly targeting the next support zone around 1.06500. Bullish Reversal : If buyers step in at 1.07532 and the price rebounds, a move towards 1.09127 could be possible. Summary This EUR/USD chart hints at a bearish bias as it approaches a significant support level. Traders may look for a confirmation of direction, as a breakdown could signal further declines, while a reversal at support might lead to a short-term rally. Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes and not financial advice.
by AngshumanSaikia
GOLD FORECASTIn this analysis we are focusing on 30M time frame for XAUUSD. Today I'm looking potential drop in gold price, So wait for price when it comes into our zone. After taking some additional confirmation like volume increase or decrease and RSI divergence. Then we will execute our trade. Always use stoploss for your trade. Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio. This is just my prediction and analysis. #GOLD M30 Technical Analysis Expected Move.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TradeTacticsreal
2024-10-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Bulls bought the lows as was expected but they could not close the day with a strong bull bar. Instead we printed weak bull bars or inside bars. Are we any smarter today? Not much. Both sides are to weak to show a clear direction and so we mostly move sideways. Bears do not have any arguments after not getting any follow through. Bulls at least closed it above the daily 20ema, so we are still inside the bullish patterns and upwards is more likely than down. dax futures comment: We have formed nested triangles and I have no opinion on who might win the breakout. Today my bias was heavily bullish and that paid big time in the morning but then the weak bulls surprised me. I do expect the breakout to happen tomorrow. current market cycle: late bull trend key levels: 19400 - 20000 bull case: Bulls broke above yesterday’s trading range which was an obvious magnet but were not strong enough to get above Tuesday’s highs and closed the day slightly above the open price. The formed triangle will likely play out in tomorrow’s EU session and during the US session we should see a bigger breakout. Bulls still have the valid 20000 target. Invalidation is below 19300. bear case: Bears are showing signs of life and the pattern the market has printed over the past 2 months, shows us that we are late in this bull trend and the end is probably near. I have little doubt that if we get to 20000, the high should be around that price and if you can hold shorts for longer and scale in higher, it will be an amazing short opportunity. Until bears print a big bear bar below the bull trend line and daily 20ema, this market is still inside the bull trend. Invalidation is above 19700. short term: Neutral. 19413 should hold as the low and I slightly favor the bulls to break above the triangle but I will wait for strong confirmation or buy longs on decent pullbacks. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19 : 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. Right now there is no selling pressure. I am confident that we will hit 17000 in 2025 but timing is more important than price, so let’s not waste brain capital on being bearish for now. current swing trade: None trade of the day : Yesterday I wrote this is a strong buy and so it was. Buying the Globex low while bar 24 formed was an amazing trade.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
2024-10-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Bulls bought the lows as was expected but they could not close the day with a strong bull bar. Instead we printed weak bull bars or inside bars. Are we any smarter today? Not much. Both sides are to weak to show a clear direction and so we mostly move sideways. Bears do not have any arguments after not getting any follow through. Bulls at least closed it above the daily 20ema, so we are still inside the bullish patterns and upwards is more likely than down. nasdaq e-mini futures comment: Also nested triangles, so not much difference to dax. Market closed in the middle of it, which is also the open of the week around 20400. Here market is absolutely in balance and it’s the worst place to trade. Market closed where it opened, so don’t put too much thought into today. Mark the triangles on your chart and wait for the breakout tomorrow or fade the extremes. current market cycle: Bull trend (nested triangles on 1h chart) key levels: 20000 - 21000 bull case: Bulls want 21000 again. They bought where they had to at the bull trend line and we should not drop below 20260 again or bulls might seriously doubt their case. Confirmation for bulls is only above 20700. Invalidation is below 20000. bear case: Bears need follow through selling below 20000 and I highly doubt they can get it. If they do, this bull trend is over and the highs are probably in. For now Bears trying to keep this inside the triangle and below 20700. Trading range price action so I will spare you more words. Invalidation is above 20700. short term: Neutral medium-long term: Very likely a retest of the ath before I expect a correction 10% or more, before another year end rally. I do think we see 21000 before we see 19600. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Buying EU session as dax.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
SasanSeifi| Key Levels to Watch in the 4-Hour TimeframeHey there, ✌ In the 4-hour timeframe, as observed on the chart OANDA:XAUUSD , gold's price has seen a minor rise after reaching the $2,600 level and is currently trading around $2,657. In the short-term outlook, one possible scenario is that after encountering the $2,668 supply zone, the price may enter a consolidation phase, with a slight pullback toward the $2,650 and $2,646 levels. If we receive the necessary confirmation signals at this stage, we could potentially see a price rebound and continuation of the upward trend. To maintain this upward momentum, holding the support levels between $2,646 and $2,640 is crucial. In case of further correction, it’s essential to monitor the price’s reaction to these support zones. If the price finds support at these levels, a new upward move towards the mentioned targets could start. However, if these supports fail, there is a possibility of prolonged consolidation or even a further price decline. On the other hand, if sufficient buying pressure emerges and the price manages to stabilize above $2,670 and $2,675, the chances of further growth towards targets like $2,700, $2,710, and $2,720 will increase. This analysis is my personal viewpoint and not financial advice. If you found this helpful, please like and comment – I’d love to hear your thoughts! Happy trading! ✌😊
OANDA:XAUUSD
by SasanSeifi
4
GOLD 1H OUTLOOKIn this analysis we are focusing on 1H time frame for gold. Here we are using SMC concept along with price action. Overall market structure was bullish. I'm expecting from price that price comes at least to the key level of our order block and then it will continue move in upward trend. Let's analyze more deeply and keep an eye on these levels and potential outcomes. Always use stoploss for your trade. Always use proper money management and R:R ratio. This is just my prediction or analysis. #XAUUSD 1H Technical Analysis Expected Move.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TradeTacticsreal