EURUSDBuy Eurusd
Entry: 1.08032
SL: 1.08017 or 1.08016
TP; 1.08077
Your reward is 3 times greater than your risk.
Priceaction
EUR/GBP (1H) Symmetrical Triangle Breakdown – Trade SetupThe EUR/GBP 1-hour chart presents a symmetrical triangle formation that has now broken to the downside, signaling a bearish continuation. This pattern is widely recognized in technical analysis and often acts as a continuation or reversal pattern, depending on the breakout direction. In this case, the price has breached the lower support boundary, indicating that sellers have taken control of the market.
In this detailed analysis, we will explore the chart structure, key technical levels, potential trade setups, and risk management strategies to navigate this move efficiently.
1️⃣ Understanding the Symmetrical Triangle Formation
A symmetrical triangle occurs when price action creates lower highs and higher lows, forming two converging trendlines. This reflects a period of market indecision, where buyers and sellers are evenly matched until a breakout occurs.
📌 Key characteristics of this triangle:
✅ Converging Trendlines – Representing lower highs and higher lows, suggesting market compression.
✅ Price Consolidation – The pair traded within this structure, awaiting a catalyst for breakout.
✅ Breakout Direction – A breakdown from the support level confirms a bearish move.
Pattern Psychology:
A symmetrical triangle often precedes a significant price move. Traders and investors monitor the breakout direction to determine the next trend. Here, the breakdown below the lower boundary signals a continuation of the prevailing bearish trend.
2️⃣ Key Levels & Chart Structure
🔹 Resistance Zone (Upper Boundary) – 0.84227
The upper trendline acted as a strong resistance level, preventing price from breaking higher multiple times.
The yellow-highlighted area represents a supply zone, where selling pressure was dominant.
Price attempted to break above this region but failed, confirming bearish dominance.
🔹 Support Level (Lower Boundary) – 0.83500
The lower boundary of the triangle previously held as support, where buyers attempted to push the price higher.
However, once price broke below this support, it confirmed a bearish trend continuation.
The blue horizontal support line represents a potential retest area, where sellers may step in again.
🔹 Breakout Confirmation & Price Action
The chart clearly shows a bearish breakout, as price broke through the lower trendline.
Retest Probability: Many breakouts experience a pullback to the broken support (now resistance) before resuming the downtrend.
The dashed black lines illustrate the expected bearish move, with a potential decline towards 0.82815.
3️⃣ Trading Plan & Entry Strategy
Based on this setup, traders can capitalize on the bearish move using a structured trading plan:
📌 Bearish Trading Setup (Short Position)
✔ Entry Strategy:
Traders can enter a short position either immediately after the breakout or after a retest of the broken support at 0.83500 - 0.83700.
The ideal confirmation would be bearish candlestick patterns, such as an engulfing candle or pin bar rejection on the retest.
✔ Stop-Loss Placement:
To mitigate risk, a stop-loss should be placed above the previous resistance level (0.84227).
This ensures protection against fake breakouts or sudden reversals.
✔ Target Price (Take Profit Level):
The measured move of a symmetrical triangle breakout is typically equal to the height of the triangle.
Based on this projection, the expected target is around 0.82815, a significant support level.
Traders may also scale out at intermediate levels (0.83000) to lock in profits.
✔ Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR):
A well-structured trade here presents an attractive RRR of approximately 1:3, meaning the potential reward is three times the risk.
A higher RRR enhances the probability of profitability over multiple trades.
4️⃣ Market Context & Fundamental Analysis
🔍 Why Is EUR/GBP Dropping?
While technical patterns are valuable, traders must also consider fundamental factors that drive currency pairs.
🟢 Possible Bearish Catalysts for EUR/GBP:
GBP Strength: If the British Pound (GBP) strengthens due to strong economic data or hawkish Bank of England (BoE) policy, EUR/GBP may continue declining.
EUR Weakness: The Euro (EUR) may be under pressure due to weak GDP growth, higher inflation, or dovish European Central Bank (ECB) statements.
Geopolitical Events: Any negative news impacting the Eurozone (e.g., political instability) could trigger further selling pressure on EUR/GBP.
5️⃣ Risk Management & Alternative Scenarios
While the current outlook favors a bearish move, traders must remain prepared for alternative scenarios.
⚠ Alternative Scenarios: 📌 False Breakdown:
If price closes back above the support level (0.83500 - 0.83700), it could indicate a failed breakout, potentially leading to a bullish reversal.
In this case, a breakout above 0.84227 would invalidate the bearish setup.
📌 Sideways Consolidation:
If the price stalls around 0.83300 - 0.83500, the market may range before the next move.
Traders should wait for clear confirmation before entering new trades.
6️⃣ Summary & Key Takeaways
✅ Pattern Identified: Symmetrical Triangle Breakout (Bearish).
✅ Breakout Direction: Price has broken below support, confirming a downtrend.
✅ Trade Setup:
Sell below 0.83500 (or on retest at 0.83700).
Stop Loss: Above 0.84227 (previous resistance).
Take Profit: Targeting 0.82815 based on the pattern’s measured move.
✅ Risk-Reward: Favorable, offering 1:3 or higher RRR.
✅ Fundamental Drivers: GBP strength or EUR weakness could accelerate the downtrend.
📢 Final Thoughts
This symmetrical triangle breakdown offers a high-probability trading opportunity for short sellers, with a clear technical structure supporting the bearish move. However, traders should remain cautious of false breakouts and adjust stop-loss levels accordingly.
For best results:
✔ Wait for price action confirmation (retest rejection or bearish candle formations).
✔ Follow proper risk management (stop-loss placement and profit-taking levels).
✔ Monitor key economic events impacting EUR and GBP movements.
By combining technical analysis, fundamental insights, and sound risk management, traders can enhance their profitability and navigate the markets with confidence. 🚀📉
EUR/USD 1H Chart Analysis – Falling Wedge Breakout StrategyOverview of the Chart
The EUR/USD 1-hour chart is forming a falling wedge pattern, which is a bullish reversal setup. This indicates that although the price has been trending downward, the selling pressure is weakening, and a breakout to the upside is becoming more likely.
Currently, the price has broken above the wedge, signaling potential trend reversal. However, traders should watch for a retest of the breakout level to confirm whether the price holds above the resistance-turned-support area before further upward movement.
Key Components of the Chart
1️⃣ Falling Wedge Pattern (Bullish Reversal Signal)
A falling wedge consists of two downward-sloping trendlines that converge, showing a narrowing price range. This pattern is formed when:
The price makes lower highs and lower lows, indicating a downtrend.
The slope of the lower trendline is less steep than the upper one, meaning sellers are losing momentum.
Eventually, the price breaks out above the upper trendline, confirming a bullish reversal.
2️⃣ Support & Resistance Levels
✅ Support Zone (Key Demand Area)
The price recently tested a strong support level (highlighted in beige), where buyers aggressively entered the market.
This level has held multiple times, indicating that buyers are stepping in whenever the price reaches this zone.
The green upward arrow suggests that this is a key accumulation area, where demand is stronger than supply.
🚫 Resistance Zone (Profit Target)
The resistance zone near 1.09450 is the first major target for bulls.
Historically, price action has struggled to break through this level, making it a logical place to take profits.
3️⃣ Breakout Confirmation & Retest
The price has successfully broken out above the falling wedge, which is a strong buy signal.
However, a retest of the breakout level (marked by the yellow circle) might occur before further bullish continuation.
If the price retests and holds above the previous resistance (now support), this will confirm the breakout and provide an additional buying opportunity.
Trade Execution Strategy
📌 Entry Point:
Enter a long trade after the breakout confirmation.
For conservative traders, waiting for a successful retest before entering can reduce risk.
📌 Stop-Loss Placement:
Place a stop loss just below the recent swing low at 1.07541 to limit downside risk.
This ensures that if the breakout fails, the trade is exited with minimal loss.
📌 Profit Target:
The first take-profit target is at 1.09450, the key resistance level.
If bullish momentum continues, traders can look for higher targets based on price action.
📌 Risk-to-Reward Ratio:
This setup provides a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, meaning that potential profits outweigh the risk taken on the trade.
Technical Indicators Supporting the Trade
📈 Trend Reversal Signals
The market has been in a downtrend, but the falling wedge signals a potential reversal.
A higher low after the breakout would further confirm the uptrend.
📊 Volume Confirmation
Ideally, a breakout should be accompanied by increased volume, showing strong buying pressure.
If volume is low, a false breakout could occur, requiring careful trade management.
🔍 Retest & Price Action
A retest of the breakout level should hold above the wedge to confirm bullish momentum.
If the price fails to hold and falls back below, the breakout may have been a fakeout, meaning traders should exit or wait for re-entry.
Risk Management & Trade Considerations
Always use a stop-loss to manage risk.
If the price fails to stay above the breakout level, consider exiting early.
Watch for external market factors such as news events or economic data releases, which can impact EUR/USD volatility.
Conclusion: Bullish Momentum is Building 🚀
This falling wedge breakout on the EUR/USD chart provides a high-probability long trade setup. As long as price holds above the breakout level, bullish continuation toward 1.09450 is expected. Traders should monitor price action carefully and adjust their positions accordingly to maximize gains while managing risks.
COMP - Shift in Momentum in Action!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
🔹 COMP has been overall bearish trading within the falling channel in red.
However , it is currently rejecting a strong weekly support at $35 - $40.
Moreover, it is clear that the bears are exhausted as the bearish impulse phases are getting more flat.
📈 For the bulls to take over, and shift the momentum in their favor, a break above both trendlines and $50 round number is needed.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Silver (XAG/USD) Double Top Reversal – Bearish Trading SetupThe provided 1-hour chart for Silver (XAG/USD) presents a well-structured bearish trade setup, highlighting key price action patterns, technical indicators, and confluence factors that suggest a potential downside move. Let's analyze the chart step by step to understand the logic behind this bearish trade setup.
1. Market Structure & Trend Overview
Silver (XAG/USD) has been in a short-term uptrend, as indicated by the ascending trendline. However, the trend now shows signs of exhaustion, with a clear shift in market behavior. The price action reveals the formation of a double top at a strong resistance level, coupled with a Change of Character (CHOCH), which signals a possible reversal.
A break below the trendline suggests that the bullish momentum is losing strength, and sellers are beginning to dominate the market. The combination of these elements makes this setup a high-probability short trade opportunity.
2. Key Technical Levels & Zones
A. Resistance Zone ($33.96 - $34.20) – The Selling Pressure Area
The chart marks a clear resistance zone, where price has struggled to break higher.
Two price rejections from this level indicate that sellers are actively defending this region.
This zone serves as an ideal stop-loss area for short trades, as a breakout above this level would invalidate the bearish setup.
B. Double Top Formation – Reversal Pattern
The price tested the resistance zone twice and failed to establish new highs, forming a double top structure.
A double top is a well-known bearish reversal pattern, indicating a shift from bullish to bearish momentum.
The second top (Top 2) aligns with a downward trendline, further confirming that sellers are stepping in at lower levels.
C. Support Level ($32.60 - $32.80) – Initial Reaction Zone
This area has previously acted as a demand zone where buyers stepped in.
If the price breaks below this support, it would confirm further downside movement towards the final target.
D. Trendline Breakdown – Loss of Bullish Momentum
The dotted trendline represents the previous bullish trend, supporting price action for several days.
A break below this trendline suggests a structural shift in market dynamics, meaning buyers are losing control.
The failure to reclaim the trendline increases the probability of a deeper move downward.
E. Target Level ($32.11 - $32.20) – The Bearish Objective
The projected target is based on the double top’s measured move, which suggests a price drop to at least $32.11.
This level also coincides with previous historical price action, making it a strong confluence zone for profit-taking.
3. Trading Strategy & Execution Plan
📌 Entry Point:
Aggressive Entry: Short position around $33.40 - $33.50, near the second top where price rejected the trendline.
Conservative Entry: Wait for a confirmed break and retest of the support level at $32.80 before entering short.
📌 Stop-Loss Placement:
The stop-loss should be placed above the resistance zone at $33.96.
This level ensures that the trade is invalidated if the price breaks out higher.
📌 Take-Profit Target:
Primary Target: $32.60, which is the first support level where price may temporarily react.
Final Target: $32.11, aligning with the double top breakdown target and historical support.
📌 Risk-Reward Ratio:
A minimum 1:2 risk-reward ratio, meaning for every 1% risked, there is a potential 2%+ gain.
This makes the trade favorable in terms of risk management.
4. Confluence Factors Supporting the Bearish Outlook
✅ Double Top Formation – A classic bearish reversal pattern.
✅ Lower Highs Formation – Indicates increasing selling pressure.
✅ Trendline Breakdown – A significant loss of bullish momentum.
✅ Resistance Zone Rejection – Strong seller presence.
✅ CHOCH (Change of Character) – Confirms a shift in market sentiment.
5. Risk Management & Alternative Scenario
📌 What If Price Moves Against the Trade?
If the price breaks above $33.96, the bearish outlook becomes invalid, and a potential bullish continuation could follow. In this case:
Stop-loss is triggered, and the setup is considered invalid.
Traders should then wait for a new setup before re-entering the market.
📌 Market Conditions to Monitor:
Volatility: Ensure there is enough momentum in the market before entering.
Volume Confirmation: A break below support should have strong volume.
News Events: Watch out for fundamental catalysts, such as US Dollar strength, economic data, and geopolitical events, which could influence Silver’s price movement.
6. Final Thoughts & Summary
This chart setup provides a clear bearish trade opportunity based on technical analysis. The combination of double top formation, resistance rejection, trendline breakdown, and lower highs strongly supports the idea of further downside movement.
💡 Key Takeaways:
Bearish bias is valid as long as price stays below $33.96.
Target is set at $32.11, with an intermediate support at $32.60.
Risk-to-reward is favorable, making it an ideal short trade setup.
If the market follows this expected scenario, this trade has the potential to yield significant profit while maintaining disciplined risk management. However, always stay alert to market conditions and adjust strategies accordingly.
CHF/USD – Double Bottom Reversal Setup - Trading SetupComprehensive Analysis of CHF/USD 4-Hour Chart
The CHF/USD 4-hour chart presents a technical trading setup based on a Double Bottom reversal pattern, combined with trendline support and key resistance levels. This pattern suggests a potential bullish breakout if key resistance is cleared. Below is a professional breakdown of the chart, covering the market structure, pattern formation, and a strategic trading setup.
1️⃣ Market Structure & Trend Analysis
The overall market structure suggests that CHF/USD has been in an uptrend, as indicated by the ascending trendline that has consistently provided support. The price has recently tested a key support zone twice, forming the Double Bottom pattern, which is known for signaling a trend reversal or continuation of an uptrend.
The dashed trendline connecting higher lows confirms the bullish momentum.
As long as the price stays above this trendline support, the bullish bias remains valid.
A break below the trendline would indicate a possible reversal or a deeper retracement.
The most critical observation here is that the price is respecting both the trendline and horizontal support zone, which increases the likelihood of a breakout in the upward direction.
2️⃣ Double Bottom Pattern Formation
The Double Bottom pattern is clearly formed at a strong demand zone, reinforcing the idea that buyers are stepping in to prevent further declines.
The first bottom was formed after a rejection from the 1.1250 - 1.1290 support zone.
The price then attempted to recover but faced resistance at 1.1350 - 1.1400, which now acts as the neckline of the pattern.
The second bottom was formed at approximately the same price level as the first, confirming the validity of the pattern.
A Double Bottom pattern is considered bullish, but confirmation is required through a breakout above the neckline resistance (1.1350 - 1.1400). If the price successfully breaks this level, it will indicate that buyers have regained control and the price is likely to move higher.
3️⃣ Key Support and Resistance Levels
In this setup, there are three crucial price zones: support, resistance, and the target area.
The support zone, located around 1.1250 - 1.1290, is where buyers stepped in to push the price higher. This level is crucial because it provided strong demand during the formation of the Double Bottom.
The resistance level at 1.1350 - 1.1400 serves as the neckline of the pattern. A breakout above this level would confirm the bullish trend continuation, while rejection could lead to another retest of support.
The target area is projected around 1.1500 - 1.1550, based on the measured move of the Double Bottom formation. This is the price level where traders may start taking profits if the bullish breakout occurs.
4️⃣ Trade Execution Plan
To take advantage of this potential setup, traders should focus on three key aspects: entry, stop-loss placement, and take-profit levels.
Entry Strategy
Aggressive traders can enter a long position above 1.1350, anticipating an immediate breakout.
Conservative traders may wait for a break and retest of the 1.1350 - 1.1400 zone, which would act as a confirmation for a sustained bullish move.
Stop-Loss Placement
A logical stop-loss should be set below 1.1138, which is beneath the Double Bottom formation and trendline support.
If the price drops below this level, it would invalidate the bullish setup and signal a potential trend reversal.
Profit Targets
The first target zone lies around 1.1450 - 1.1500, where traders may consider securing partial profits.
The extended target zone is 1.1550, which aligns with the expected measured move of the Double Bottom pattern.
5️⃣ Risk Management & Final Considerations
Since this setup is based on a strong trendline support and bullish pattern, risk management is essential to protect against fake breakouts or sudden trend reversals.
Traders should monitor price action near the 1.1350 - 1.1400 resistance zone. A strong bullish candle closing above this area increases the likelihood of a successful breakout.
If the price fails to break out and starts moving lower, it may indicate that sellers are still in control, which could lead to a deeper correction toward 1.1200 or lower.
6️⃣ Summary & TradingView Idea
This CHF/USD 4-hour chart presents a high-probability bullish setup based on a Double Bottom reversal at a strong support zone. The key confirmation level to watch is 1.1350 - 1.1400, which, if broken, will likely push the price toward 1.1500 - 1.1550.
Entry: Buy above 1.1350 or after a breakout retest.
Stop Loss: Below 1.1138 to avoid false breakouts.
Take Profit: First target at 1.1450 - 1.1500, extended target at 1.1550.
This setup provides a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, making it a strong potential trading opportunity. However, traders should always wait for confirmation signals before entering a position. 🚀
JPY/USD 4H Chart Analysis – Head & Shoulders BreakdownThis JPY/USD 4-hour chart showcases a Head & Shoulders (H&S) pattern, a well-known bearish reversal pattern signaling a potential downtrend after an extended bullish run. The breakdown of the neckline support and the trendline breakout are key confirmations of a shift in momentum, making this a high-probability trading setup.
📌 1️⃣ Understanding the Head & Shoulders Pattern
The Head & Shoulders pattern is a classic reversal structure that forms after a prolonged uptrend. It consists of three peaks:
Left Shoulder: The first peak forms as buyers push the price higher, followed by a pullback.
Head: The price rallies again, making a higher peak, but sellers start to gain strength, causing another pullback.
Right Shoulder: A lower high is formed as buying pressure weakens, signaling exhaustion of the uptrend.
This pattern is significant because it suggests that bullish momentum is fading and that a potential trend reversal is underway.
📌 2️⃣ Trendline Breakout – Bearish Confirmation
Before the formation of the Head & Shoulders, the market was in a strong uptrend, supported by a rising trendline (dashed black line).
The price respected this trendline multiple times, acting as dynamic support.
However, after the right shoulder formation, the price broke below the trendline, indicating that selling pressure is increasing.
A trendline breakout after a reversal pattern strengthens the bearish case, increasing the likelihood of further downside movement.
📌 3️⃣ Key Resistance & Support Levels
Understanding the key price levels is essential for determining trade entries, stop-loss placements, and target zones.
📍 Resistance Zone (Stop-Loss Area):
0.006776 is the recent high and a key resistance level where sellers previously stepped in.
If the price reclaims this level, the bearish thesis could be invalidated, making it a logical place to set a stop-loss.
This level also aligns with the Head of the pattern, further reinforcing it as a strong supply zone.
📍 Support Level (Neckline Zone):
The neckline (horizontal support zone) was previously holding as support but has now been broken.
If the price pulls back to this area and rejects it, it could serve as a strong entry point for short trades.
A confirmed retest of the neckline would validate the breakdown, increasing the likelihood of a further decline.
📍 Bearish Target (Profit-Taking Zone):
The price is projected to decline toward 0.006457, which is derived by measuring the height of the Head & Shoulders pattern and projecting it downward.
This level also coincides with historical support, making it a strong take-profit area.
If bearish momentum continues, further downside targets may come into play.
📌 4️⃣ Trading Plan – Execution Strategy
This setup provides a clear structure for planning a high-probability short trade.
✅ Entry Strategy:
Option 1 (Aggressive Entry): Enter a short trade immediately after the breakdown of the neckline.
Option 2 (Conservative Entry): Wait for a retest of the broken neckline as resistance before entering a short position.
🚀 Stop-Loss Placement:
Above 0.006776 (recent resistance & Head of the pattern).
Ensures protection from a potential false breakout.
🎯 Take-Profit Strategy:
First target: 0.006457 (measured move of the pattern).
Extended target: Lower psychological support if momentum continues downward.
📌 5️⃣ Market Sentiment & Additional Considerations
While this technical setup suggests a bearish outlook, traders should also consider:
🔸 Fundamental Factors: Economic data releases, interest rate decisions, and geopolitical events can impact market sentiment.
🔸 Volume Confirmation: A high-volume breakout strengthens the bearish bias, whereas weak volume may indicate a potential fake-out.
🔸 RSI & Momentum Indicators: Checking if the RSI is in overbought territory or showing bearish divergence can provide further confidence in the setup.
🔸 Psychological Levels: Traders should watch for price reactions near key round numbers, as these often act as support/resistance.
📌 6️⃣ Conclusion – Why This Setup is High Probability
This JPY/USD 4H chart presents a well-defined Head & Shoulders pattern, a classic reversal setup that indicates a shift from bullish to bearish momentum. The trendline breakout and neckline breach reinforce the bearish bias, making this a high-probability short trade opportunity.
💡 Key Takeaways:
✅ A confirmed trendline break + H&S pattern indicates a bearish reversal.
✅ Watch for a neckline retest as a potential short entry.
✅ Bearish target: 0.006457 with stop-loss above 0.006776.
✅ Consider fundamental factors & market sentiment for additional confirmation.
🔽 Overall Bias: Bearish 📉
#JPYUSD #ForexTrading #HeadAndShoulders #PriceAction #TradingSetup #TrendReversal
XAU/USD Symmetrical Triangle Pattern Breakdown – Trading Setup📌 Chart Overview
The chart represents the Gold Spot (XAU/USD) on a 1-hour timeframe, where the price is currently consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern. This pattern consists of a series of lower highs and higher lows, indicating market indecision. However, as price approaches the apex of the triangle, a breakout is imminent, making this a high-probability trading opportunity.
The analysis suggests a potential bearish breakdown, with price action likely to drop toward key support levels if the lower boundary of the triangle is breached.
📊 Breakdown of Key Chart Elements
1. Symmetrical Triangle Formation
The symmetrical triangle is a well-known technical pattern that signals a period of consolidation before a significant move. It forms when:
Buyers and sellers struggle for control, resulting in a narrowing price range.
A breakout occurs when one side gains dominance, leading to an expansion in volatility.
In this chart, the price is trapped within the triangle, gradually forming a squeeze, and a breakout is highly likely.
2. Resistance & Support Levels
Understanding key support and resistance zones is crucial in determining the next price direction.
🟧 Resistance Zone (~3,030 – 3,058 USD)
Marked in yellow, this area has acted as a strong resistance.
Multiple rejection points suggest that bulls are struggling to push prices higher.
If price breaks above this zone, it could trigger a bullish rally.
🟦 Support Level (~2,990 USD)
This is a critical support zone that has been tested multiple times.
The lower boundary of the triangle aligns with this level.
A clean breakdown will likely trigger stop losses and aggressive selling pressure.
📉 Expected Breakdown & Price Projection
The price is currently trading near the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle. Based on technical probabilities, the higher likelihood is a breakdown, which is why the trade setup leans towards a short-selling opportunity.
3. Retesting Area (~3,015 – 3,020 USD)
If price breaks below the triangle, it may retest the broken support before continuing downward.
The retesting area is a critical zone where sellers may re-enter to drive prices lower.
A failed retest (bounce back inside the triangle) would invalidate the bearish setup.
📈 Trading Strategy & Execution Plan
This setup presents a well-structured short-selling opportunity based on the expected breakdown scenario.
🔽 Short Entry Strategy
Entry Confirmation: Short position can be taken once price breaks and closes below 2,990 USD (triangle support).
Retest Entry: If price retests the breakdown zone (around 3,015 – 3,020 USD) and rejects, it confirms the bearish bias.
Aggressive Entry: Traders who take early positions can enter a short once price approaches the lower triangle boundary with a tight stop-loss.
🎯 Target Levels
Upon confirmation of a breakdown, price action is likely to follow a measured move toward the following downside targets:
Target 1: 2,942 USD (first major support level)
Target 2: 2,920 USD (next key demand zone)
These levels are determined by previous price reactions and historical support zones.
🛑 Stop-Loss Placement
To manage risk, a stop-loss should be placed above the recent swing high to protect against a fake breakout.
Safe Stop Loss: Above 3,058 USD (strong resistance zone).
Aggressive Stop Loss: Just above the breakout retest zone (~3,030 USD).
📌 Market Psychology & Risk Management
Traders should consider the psychological aspects behind this setup:
Bullish traders may attempt to defend the support zone, but a failure will lead to panic selling.
Smart money (institutional traders) often use fake breakouts to trap early sellers before driving the price lower.
Wait for confirmation before entering trades to avoid being caught in false moves.
Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR)
Entry: ~2,990 USD
Target 1: 2,942 USD
Target 2: 2,920 USD
Stop Loss: 3,058 USD
This setup offers an excellent risk-to-reward ratio (RRR), making it a high-probability trade.
🔎 Conclusion & Final Thoughts
The symmetrical triangle is at its final stage, and a breakout is imminent.
A break below 2,990 USD will likely confirm a bearish move.
Retesting the breakdown zone (3,015 – 3,020 USD) is crucial for short entries.
Downside targets are 2,942 USD and 2,920 USD based on historical support zones.
Proper risk management is essential—always use stop-losses to mitigate potential losses.
This setup presents a strong opportunity for short traders, but patience is key. Traders should wait for confirmation before committing to a position.
25.03.25 Morning ForecastPairs on Watch -
FX:GBPAUD
FX:AUDJPY
FX:EURUSD
A short overview of the instruments I am looking at for today, multi-timeframe analysis down to what I will be looking at for an entry. Enjoy!
USD/JPY – Key Resistance Tested After Strong RallyThe USD/JPY pair has been in a steady uptrend after finding support near the 147.800 level, leading to a breakout above key levels. The price is currently testing a significant resistance zone around 150.500, where previous rejections occurred.
Key Levels to Watch:
📌 Resistance: 150.500 (current test), 155.500, 156.500
📌 Support: 147.800
If buyers sustain momentum above 150.500, we could see a move toward the 155.500 - 156.500 zone. However, rejection at this level could trigger a pullback toward 147.800 support.
Traders should monitor price action at this level to determine whether a breakout or rejection occurs.
What are your thoughts? Will USD/JPY break higher, or are we due for a pullback? 🚀📉
GOLD 1H | Bearish POI Reaction Setup – Clean Flow by CelestiaPipPrice is reacting to a high-probability POI formed via supply + imbalance on GOLD 1H.
After the sweep and minor bullish correction, we’re now back into the rejection zone.
As long as price holds below 3030 , we could see continuation toward 2981 .
Key levels, invalidation zone, and structure mapped clearly.
Watch how price responds — setup in motion.
— CelestiaPips
BTCUSD 2H | Breakout Flow + BOS Confirmation – CelestiaPipsBTC is slowly developing a breakout structure on the 2H timeframe .
Multiple bullish BOS points and a solid NY session demand base formed.
Price is currently retesting the breakout zone after sweeping short-term liquidity.
If price holds this zone, we could see continuation toward 88,900.
I’ve mapped out the entire flow – BOS, entry zone, and final target.
Watch how price reacts from this level.
— Shared by CelestiaPip
#GOLD ANALYSIS (BEARISH BIAS)🔍 XAU/USD Technical Breakdown – Bearish Setup Ahead?
Gold has been struggling against a key trendline resistance, with a strong supply zone acting as a barrier. The price is currently approaching a critical rejection area ($3,033 - $3,040), aligning with the downward trendline. A potential liquidity grab in this region could trigger a bearish reversal. Always take confirmation before executing your trade.
Expected Price Action:
A rejection from resistance, followed by a lower high formation.
A move towards the $3,010 - 3015 level, with a possible test of liquidity.
Break below could open doors for further downside.
🔴 Stop-Loss: Above the resistance zone.
🟢 Target: Key support around $2,999-$3,010.
Will the bears take control, or will bulls break through? Let’s watch how price reacts! 👀
#XAUUSD 30M Technical Analysis Expected Move.
2025-03-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Big day for the bulls tomorrow. US markets rallied hard while this closed neutral but the rejection above 23300 made this day good for the bears. Bulls need to stay above 22954 and bears below 23200.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 22900 - 24000
bull case: Bulls have no more room to the downside. Either break above again or go down. Above 23300 we test 23500 and maybe higher but for now the battle is fought between 22900 and 23200. Bulls are still in control since the bull channel is alive and well. They have closed above the daily 20ema and have also six 1h bars with big tails below 23100. Problem though is that six is a bit much. They need to rally hard tomorrow or at least stay above 23100.
Invalidation is below 23000.
bear case: Bears printed a good rejection above 23300 and had 3 legs down while the third one made a double bottom, which is not good for them. Structure below 23100 looks better to buy and not to sell. If they keep it below 23200, they could poke 23000 a bit more and maybe more bulls will give up but for now it’s a big maybe. Market is still always in long until we have consecutive daily closes below 23000. Best bears can hope for is to continue to print lower highs below 23374.
Invalidation is above 23400.
short term: Slightly bullish bias around 23100 with stop 23954. I want to see a new ath and then a huge rejection from maybe 24k, which should align with my guess for the big second leg down in us markets. Still a rough guess for now.
medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Germany takes on huge amount of new debt. Dax is rallying hard and broke above multi-year bull trends. This buying is as real as it gets, as unlikely as it is. Market is as expensive as it was during the .com bubble but here we are and marking is pointing up. Clear bull channel and until it’s broken, I can not pound my chest and scream for lower prices. Price is truth. Is the selling around 23000 strong enough that we could form a top? Yes. We have wild 1000 point swings in both directions. Look at the weekly chart. Last time we had this volatility was 2024-07 and volume then was still much lower. We are seeing a shift from US equities to European ones and until market closes consecutive daily bars below 22000, we can’t expecting anything but sideways to up movement.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying Globex open was easy but selling was hard. Bears surprised me multiple times. Bad trading on my part today.
GOLD(XAUUSD) -Weekly Forecast,Technical Analysis & Trading Ideas💡 OANDA:XAUUSD Daily Timeframe:
As forecasted by 4CastMachine AI last week, gold started its decline when it hit the red channel line.
This decline will continue, but the support area of 2955 could trigger a rebound.
At the support area of 2955, the up trend line will also prevent further declines.
If this area is broken, the price will decline to the support area of 2789.95.
This area, which was previously a major resistance, will become a major support, creating a good buying opportunity.
So, given the long-term uptrend, we can use this area as a long-term BUY ZONE.
💡 TVC:GOLD H4 Timeframe:
The price is in a Corrective wave.
Given the break of the ascending trend line in the RSI, the corrective wave is expected to continue to a depth of 2955.
💡 H1 Timeframe:
A Head and Shoulder Reversal Pattern has formed and the neckline has also been broken. Price is touching the neckline again. It is very likely that the downward wave will start from this area.
3027.83 support is broken now. It will act as a Resistance now!
Forecast:
Correction wave toward the Sell Zone
Another Downward Impulse wave toward Lower TPs
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What is a Swing Failure Pattern? - Basic explanation!A Swing Failure Pattern (SFP) is a technical chart pattern often used in price action trading to identify potential reversals in the market. It is typically seen on candlestick or bar charts in the context of trend analysis.
The basic idea behind a Swing Failure Pattern is that the price temporarily breaks above or below a previous swing high or low, but fails to sustain that move and reverses direction quickly. This indicates a potential shift in market sentiment, and it can be a signal for a trend reversal or breakdown.
When is it a SFP?
- In needs to sweep the previous low
- It has to close the candlestick above the previous low. So only a wick down When the price closes the body of a candle below the last low, it will not be considered an SFP. In this case, it is highly likely that the trend will continue in that direction.
The SFP can occur across various timeframes, from lower to higher timeframes.
Example on the daily timeframe
Here, we see two SFPs: one to the upside and one to the downside.
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GOLD 1H | Demand Zone Reaction & Breakout Plan – CelestiaPipsGOLD on the 1H timeframe is reacting from a previously tested demand zone around 3000 .
Watching for a clean break & retest above 3044 for bullish continuation toward 3065.
Trendline break could act as early confirmation.
Structure-based idea shared by CelestiaPips.
XTIUSD Price ActionHello traders!
As you can see, I've highlighted two valid Supply and Demand zones on the chart. Notice that the previous trendline liquidity has already been swept, and the market grabbed liquidity at the top before forming the supply zone.
This presents a good opportunity to enter a trade targeting the next valid demand zone below. Remember, always pay close attention to risk management—protect your balance first, then aim for profits. If you can manage risk effectively, you'll thrive in the market.
Wishing you all successful trades—happy trading!
EUR/JPY – Double Bottom Breakout & Trendline Retest, Trade Setup📊 Chart Type: 1-Hour (H1)
💹 Asset: EUR/JPY
📈 Technical Patterns: Double Bottom, Trendline Breakout, Retest
📌 Overview of the Chart
The EUR/JPY chart showcases a bullish reversal setup, characterized by a Double Bottom pattern, a trendline breakout, and a successful retest. This combination suggests a potential continuation towards higher price levels, making it an ideal setup for traders looking for breakout entries.
The price action initially followed a downtrend, but buyers stepped in at key support zones, leading to the formation of a strong reversal pattern. Now, the price is testing a key resistance level, and if it breaks out, we could see a significant upward move.
🟢 Key Technical Analysis Breakdown
1️⃣ Double Bottom Formation – A Bullish Reversal Signal
🔹 The Double Bottom is a classic reversal pattern that forms after an extended downtrend.
🔹 In this case, price found strong support at 160.139, forming two lows (Bottom 1 & Bottom 2), indicating buyer dominance.
🔹 The confirmation of the pattern comes with a break above the neckline at around 162.000, suggesting a shift from bearish to bullish momentum.
2️⃣ Trendline Breakout & Retest
🔹 A descending trendline had been acting as dynamic resistance, pushing prices lower.
🔹 Recently, the price broke above the trendline, signaling a potential trend shift.
🔹 Now, price is retesting the trendline, which is a key factor in confirming whether the breakout is valid.
🔹 If the retest holds, it could trigger a strong bullish move towards the next resistance zone.
📍 Support & Resistance Zones
🔹 Support Level (160.139):
The lowest point in the chart, where price tested twice and formed the Double Bottom.
Buyers stepped in aggressively at this level, preventing further decline.
Stop Loss Placement: Below this support zone for long trades.
🔹 Resistance Zone (163.725 - Target Level):
The previous swing high and a major supply zone.
A breakout above this area could lead to further bullish momentum.
📈 Trading Strategy – How to Trade This Setup?
✅ Bullish Trade Setup (Breakout & Retest Confirmation)
This setup is ideal for traders looking to capitalize on breakout and retest strategies.
📌 Entry:
Wait for a strong bullish candle to confirm the retest of the trendline.
A break above the 162.500 level could be a good entry confirmation.
📌 Target:
First target: 163.725 (Resistance Zone).
If momentum continues, the next upside target could be around 164.500.
📌 Stop Loss:
Below 160.139 (previous support level) to minimize risk.
Alternatively, place it below the trendline retest zone if entering aggressively.
📌 Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR):
This trade offers a strong RRR, as the downside risk is limited, while the upside potential is higher.
🔴 Bearish Scenario – What if the Retest Fails?
While the bias is bullish, traders must be prepared for a fake breakout scenario. If price fails to hold above the trendline and neckline, the structure might break down.
📌 Bearish Entry:
If price rejects the retest zone and closes back below 161.500, it could indicate a false breakout.
📌 Target:
160.139 (Support Level).
📌 Stop Loss:
Above the trendline retest zone to protect against unexpected bullish moves.
🔎 Key Takeaways & Final Thoughts
✅ The Double Bottom pattern signals a potential trend reversal.
✅ The trendline breakout & retest adds further confirmation to the bullish bias.
✅ A breakout above 162.500 could accelerate buying pressure toward 163.725.
✅ Risk management is essential: A well-placed stop loss below the support level ensures minimal downside risk.
✅ If price rejects the retest zone, traders should be prepared for a possible bearish reversal.
📌 Overall Bias: Bullish ✅
📌 Trade Confirmation: Needs trendline retest hold + bullish breakout 📈
📌 Key Level to Watch: 162.500 (Breakout Confirmation Zone) 🔥
💡 Pro Tip : Always wait for confirmation before entering a trade. A strong bullish candlestick pattern (e.g., engulfing candle) on the H1 or H4 timeframe could provide extra confidence in the setup! 🚀
EUR/GBP Chart Analysis – Inverse Head & Shoulders Bullish SetupThis EUR/GBP 1-hour chart showcases a classic Inverse Head & Shoulders (H&S) pattern, signaling a potential trend reversal from bearish to bullish. This pattern is considered one of the most reliable technical formations for spotting upcoming upward momentum, particularly after a prolonged downtrend.
🔎 Market Overview
Currency Pair: EUR/GBP
Timeframe: 1-Hour (H1)
Current Price: 0.83720
Trend: Transitioning from a downtrend to a potential bullish breakout
Key Pattern: Inverse Head & Shoulders
Trading Bias: Bullish (Pending breakout confirmation)
📊 Chart Breakdown & Technical Analysis
1️⃣ Market Structure & Trend Analysis
Before the formation of the Inverse Head & Shoulders, the market was in a strong downtrend, making lower highs and lower lows. However, buyers started stepping in near the 0.8350 level, preventing further decline. This rejection at key support has set the stage for a potential trend reversal.
Left Shoulder: Price formed a minor low around 0.8370, followed by a small bounce.
Head: Price made a deeper low around 0.8351, confirming strong support and buyer interest.
Right Shoulder: Price attempted another dip but failed to break below the previous low, forming a higher low near 0.8370, signaling increasing bullish pressure.
Neckline Resistance: 0.8385 - 0.8390 zone – a crucial level that price needs to break for confirmation of an uptrend.
2️⃣ Key Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level: 0.83513 (Major demand zone)
Resistance Levels:
Neckline: 0.8385 - 0.8390 (Breakout confirmation zone)
Major Resistance: 0.84308 (Target level)
Curve Zone: A dynamic resistance trendline that has been containing price action. A breakout above this curve signals a potential shift in trend.
📈 Trading Strategy – Bullish Breakout Plan
✅ Entry Strategy:
A long trade should be considered only after a confirmed breakout above the neckline (0.8385 - 0.8390). The confirmation comes when:
A strong bullish candle closes above the neckline.
Increased trading volume supports the breakout.
A possible retest of the neckline as new support (0.8385) before continuation.
🎯 Target Price & Stop Loss:
Take Profit (TP): 0.84308 (Projected move based on pattern size).
Stop Loss (SL): Below 0.83513 (Right Shoulder low).
Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR): 1:2 or higher, making this a high-probability trade setup.
🛑 Risk Management & Trade Confirmation:
Volume Confirmation: A breakout should be accompanied by a volume spike, confirming strong buyer interest.
Fakeout Warning: If price briefly breaks above the neckline but then falls back below, it could be a false breakout. In this case, waiting for a retest would be a safer approach.
Trailing Stop: Once price moves toward 0.8410, a trailing stop can help secure profits in case of market reversals.
🧐 Summary – Key Takeaways
✅ Inverse Head & Shoulders Identified – A reliable bullish reversal pattern.
✅ Breakout Zone: 0.8385 - 0.8390 (Watch for confirmation).
✅ Target Price: 0.84308 (Potential profit zone).
✅ Stop Loss: Below 0.83513 (Protect against downside risk).
✅ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: Favorable (1:2 or better).
✅ Trading Plan: Buy above the neckline, aim for 0.8430, and manage risk properly.
📌 Final Thought: If the neckline is broken with strong momentum, expect a bullish move toward 0.8430+. However, traders should remain cautious of potential fakeouts and manage risk accordingly.
📢 Share your thoughts in the comments! Are you bullish on EUR/GBP? 🚀📊
#EURGBP #ForexTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingSetup #InverseHeadAndShoulders
EUR/USD Falling Wedge Breakout – Professional Chart AnalysisOverview of the Chart
The EUR/USD 1-hour chart presents a bullish trading setup, featuring a well-defined falling wedge pattern, a trendline breakout, and a retest phase, signaling a potential upward move. The chart is marked with key technical elements such as support and resistance zones, breakout confirmation, and risk management parameters.
This analysis will break down each component of the chart, explaining the logic behind the setup and how traders can approach this opportunity.
1. Identified Chart Patterns
Falling Wedge Formation (Bullish Reversal Signal)
The price action formed a falling wedge, characterized by lower highs and lower lows, creating a narrowing price channel.
This pattern is typically a bullish reversal structure, as it indicates weakening selling pressure before an expected breakout.
The wedge’s downward movement ended with a strong breakout to the upside, signaling buyers regaining control.
2. Key Technical Levels
Support & Resistance Zones
Support Level (Buyers’ Stronghold)
The horizontal support level is a price area where buyers have previously stepped in, preventing further declines.
This level has been tested multiple times, reinforcing its strength as a key demand zone.
Resistance Zone (Profit Target Area)
The highlighted resistance zone represents a supply area where the price has struggled to move past in previous sessions.
The target price level aligns with this resistance, making it a realistic profit target for the long position.
3. Trendline Breakout Confirmation
Before forming the wedge, the chart shows an uptrend with a breakout above a trendline.
This trendline breakout was an early signal of bullish strength, aligning with the later wedge breakout.
After the breakout, the price came back for a retest, which is a key confirmation before further upward movement.
4. Retesting Phase Before the Upward Move
After breaking out of the wedge, the price returned to the breakout level to confirm support.
Retesting is a crucial validation step—if the price holds above this level, it increases the probability of a continued bullish move.
This retesting action provides a potential entry point for traders looking to go long.
5. Trade Setup & Risk Management Strategy
Trade Entry:
A buy entry is considered after the retest is confirmed (price holding above the breakout level).
Stop Loss Placement (Risk Control):
The stop loss is placed below the previous low at 1.07790, ensuring protection against fake breakouts or unexpected reversals.
Take Profit Target (Projected Price Move):
The target price is set at 1.09698, which aligns with previous resistance levels and the measured move from the wedge breakout.
This provides a strong risk-to-reward ratio, making the setup favorable for bullish traders.
6. Risk-Reward Ratio & Trade Viability
Risk: The distance between the entry point and the stop loss is relatively small, making it a low-risk trade.
Reward: The potential upside move is significantly higher than the risk, creating a high reward-to-risk ratio trade.
This type of technical confluence increases the probability of a successful trade, making it an attractive opportunity.
7. Conclusion & Trading Strategy
📌 Key Takeaways:
✅ The falling wedge breakout signals a bullish reversal.
✅ The trendline breakout and retest add further confirmation to the trade setup.
✅ The support and resistance zones provide a clear risk management strategy.
✅ The risk-reward ratio makes this an attractive long trade setup.
💡 Trading Plan:
🔹 Enter Long after retest confirmation above the breakout level.
🔹 Stop Loss: 1.07790 (below previous low).
🔹 Take Profit: 1.09698 (previous resistance zone).
Final Thoughts
This EUR/USD setup is a textbook example of a bullish reversal following a falling wedge breakout. Traders who patiently wait for a confirmed retest can capitalize on this high-probability trade setup, aiming for a strong bullish continuation.
🔹 Tags: #EURUSD #ForexTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #Breakout #PriceAction #TradingSetup #SupportResistance
Silver (XAG/USD) – Rising Wedge Breakdown & Bearish Setup📊 Overview of the Chart
This 4-hour chart of Silver (XAG/USD) provides a classic example of a Rising Wedge Breakdown, a bearish reversal pattern. The price initially followed a strong uptrend, forming a series of higher highs and higher lows, but failed to sustain momentum at the key resistance zone (~$34.00 - $34.50). This led to a breakout to the downside, which has now confirmed a shift in market sentiment from bullish to bearish.
This analysis will break down each key level, the technical indicators supporting this trade setup, and how traders can approach it effectively.
🛠️ Breakdown of the Chart Components
1️⃣ Rising Wedge Formation (Bearish Pattern Identified)
The price action created a Rising Wedge, which is a bearish pattern characterized by an uptrend where the higher highs and higher lows start converging into a narrowing range.
This shows that while buyers were pushing prices higher, their strength was gradually fading.
The breakdown of this structure signaled a loss of bullish momentum, leading to a shift in trend.
2️⃣ Resistance Level & Sell Zone Identified
The resistance level at $34.00 - $34.50 has acted as a supply zone where sellers stepped in, preventing further upside.
A bearish rejection at this zone confirms that sellers are still dominant.
3️⃣ Retest of the Broken Support (Key Confirmation)
After the breakout from the wedge, the price made a retest of the broken trendline, a classic move before further downside.
Retesting this area confirms that it is now acting as resistance rather than support, further strengthening the bearish case.
4️⃣ Trendline Breakout – Shift in Market Structure
The dashed trendline was previously supportive, but now that the price has broken below it, it has turned into a resistance level.
This shift in market structure is a strong bearish signal.
5️⃣ Key Support Levels & Target Projection
The next major support level is at $32.00, a level where price previously found demand.
The ultimate target price is around $31.18, which aligns with historical support and Fibonacci retracement levels.
📉 Trading Strategy – How to Trade This Setup?
✅ Entry Point (Short/Sell Setup)
A good shorting opportunity arises if the price retests the resistance at $33.50 - $34.00 and shows bearish confirmation (like a rejection candlestick or a bearish engulfing pattern).
📍 Stop Loss (SL) Placement
SL should be above $34.20 to avoid getting stopped out by potential fakeouts.
🎯 Take Profit (TP) Levels
TP1: $32.00 (First support level)
TP2: $31.18 (Final bearish target)
📊 Risk-Reward Ratio
Entry at $33.50 - $34.00 with SL at $34.20 and TP at $31.18 provides an excellent risk-to-reward ratio (~1:4).
📌 Market Sentiment & Conclusion
🔴 Bearish signals are dominant, suggesting further downside potential.
📉 A strong bearish move is expected if the price fails to reclaim $34.00.
🎯 Targeting $31.18 in the upcoming sessions.
📢 Final Advice: Traders should watch for confirmation before entering trades. A successful retest and rejection at $33.50 - $34.00 will be a high-probability short setup. 🚀
🔥 Follow price action and risk management principles for a successful trade! 🔥
GBPUSD Week 13 Swing Zone/LevelsYour next trade could be the beginning of your success in Forex.
We’ve been performing exceptionally well so far, identifying key swing levels as always.
- Stop Loss (SL): Set between 10-15 pips from the 5-minute candle entry.
- Dynamic Take Profit (DTP): Adjusted based on price reaction to swing levels.
Let’s capitalize on the momentum!
