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2024-10-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Big bear day on most indexes but they did not accomplish enough to flip the markets to always-in-short. I do think the odds of a bullish reversal into the weekend are much greater than continued selling. Many markets are at perfect support and buying this is a no-brainer for many bulls. We still have bullish targets above us (e.g. sp500 → 6000 and dax to 20000). dax futures comment: Bulls have waited for this pullback a long time and I highly doubt they will let it go to waste. Very high chance of this being a bear trap and we melt from here. Wait for confirmation before you trade this. We are right at the daily 20ema and the big bull trend line from August. Buying with a stop 19416 is probably risky but could work. Waiting for bears to try 19400 again might be wiser but it depends on tomorrows price action. Last thing I want to do here is enter new shorts. As mentioned in my weekly update and over the last weeks, 20000 is the target and I doubt the market can move significantly lower without touching it. Buckel up for tomorrow and Friday, we will see some big moves. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 19400 - 20000 bull case: Bulls got the textbook pullback to huge support and they want to go straight up to 20000 from here. There is nothing more fancy to say about this. Look at the chart and wait for bulls to come around tomorrow, use a decent stop and let your trade run when it happens. Where would most bulls give up? Tough. It’s probably not 19399. Many will scale in but I do think this should not go below 19300 or the bull case is likely over. Invalidation is below 19300. bear case: Bears had a strong day but did not close below the daily ema and the big bull trend line. Zero doubt that bears will give up quickly once bulls come around because they know it’s big support. They made some decent points the past 3 days and most won’t overstay their welcome. If they manage to get below 19300, they would flip the market to always in short and their next targets would be 19100. Very unlikely that will happen but it’s possible, so I think it’s useful to mention. Invalidation is above 19480. short term: If we stay above 19400, max bullish for 20000. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19 : 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. Right now there is no selling pressure. I am confident that we will hit 17000 in 2025 but timing is more important than price, so let’s not waste brain capital on being bearish for now. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Selling 19570 has worked on Tuesday and so today. Obvious resistance.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024Long
by priceactiontds
2024-10-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Bitcoin - Bears did good but need a daily close below 65000 to confirm the bull trap. Right now it’s a tough spot to trade since daily 20ema was support and bears need to keep it below 68000. Probably best to sit on hands and wait for a breakout of this range. Still think bears are slightly favored to break below and trade down to at least 63000. bitcoin comment: Chart is the same as I posted on Sunday and my two legged correction was a bit too low for the B but C was absolutely perfect. What now? Daily 20ema could be support for now but my bearish thesis stands. Market has not printed 70000 and I doubt it will again for a longer time. Bears need follow through to make the last bulls cover and the selling would likely accelerate. current market cycle : trading range (big triangle on the daily chart) key levels: 60000 - 69000 bull case: Bulls bought the daily 20ema and want to keep it support and retest 69000. They know that if they fail here, market will test down to 62000 quickly. I do not have any more arguments for the bulls, since my bias has been bearish for many weeks now. If they close a daily candle above 68000 again, I would change my mind. Invalidation is below 65000. bear case : Bears had their do or die moment again and made it. Now they need follow through because a daily close above the big bear trend line from the ath would give bulls confidence again and bears would cover in fear of 70000. They need a daily close below 65000 to confirm the bull trap. My line in the sand was 66500 as of yesterday and we are not at 66400, so too close for comfort for bears. Invalidation is above 68000. short term: Bearish below 68000. Confirmation is for bears is below 65000. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-06: Something between 49000 and 70000. Big surprise, I know. I don’t know if we get a breakout of this range in 2024 again. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Bear trend day since Globex open, so pick anywhere and sell but maybe not into US close. Looking for shorts near the 1h 20ema was a decent strategy today.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by priceactiontds
BEARS KEEPS A TIGHT GRIP ON EU BULLS!Sellers are having a swell time violating buy zones this week, while we expected shorts, we had hoped to see a potential retracement move give us a chance to enter long (counter-trend/high-risk) but that has not happened. While price did bounced of this level a few times showing bullish reactions, they were insufficient to determine a shift in sentiment, now attention has shifted to this weekly FVG where we begin to watch for clear bullish reaction from the 4hr TF up to the daily TF . We'll keep fingers crossed until a reversal pattern prints!
Long
by LloydFX
2024-10-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Sideways again. No deeper meaning to it. Nasdaq has not touched the daily 20ema over the last days but is creeping higher again. Lows are bought so it’s reasonable to expect bears to give up unless something unexpected happens (e.g. very bad earnings but the probability is very low). Bull wedge has not a lot of room anymore, so the odds of a big breakout, this week, are good. nasdaq e-mini futures comment : We are moving in a nested bull channel inside the bigger bull wedge. We are making higher highs and higher lows again but barely. Buying above 20500 has been unprofitable for a week now but also selling below 20400. One side will give up soon, can wait for the bigger breakout instead of trading this trading range. Having said that, bulls are still in control since bears could not even touch the daily ema for two weeks now. current market cycle: Bull trend (nested bull wedges) key levels: 20000 - 21000 bull case: Bulls grinding this higher again but we also see decent selling in between. It’s buy low and sell high inside the channel. Don’t overstay your welcome in positions and don’t bet on a breakout. Their next target is a breakout above the current channel and a retest of 20700. Above that they would need a daily close above 20700 and then market is free to retest 21000+ again. Invalidation is below 20300. bear case: Bears need a daily close below 20300. If they get that, next target would be 20200 and then they have a decent chance of testing 19900 again, where the bull trend line from August runs through. So even if they get all that, the downside is probably very limited for now. Invalidation is above 20700. short term: Neutral medium-long term: Very likely a retest of the ath before I expect a correction 10% or more, before another year end rally. I do think we see 21000 before we see 19600. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Buying the US open 20400 since previous support was 20340ish and upside potential was to 20500 at least.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
2024-10-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - Bull surprise and the actual breakout above both the daily 20ema and the bear trend line. Bear gap to 72.6 is not yet closed but with good follow through tomorrow they could get it. I do think longs are much better here than shorts and we could finally disappoint bears again. Could retest the bear trend line tomorrow, that means that a deep pullback to 69.7 or 70 is possible. There I would look for longs again. comment: Bullish breakout and my major trend reversal theory was good. Bulls now should not let this drop below 69.5 again. We could see a retest of ~70 again before we go higher. I will only look for longs on this tomorrow and anything below 70.5 is a decent trade. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 68 - 71 bull case: Targets for the bulls are now 72.6 to close the bear gap and above that is 75. No more words needed for this. Invalidation is below 69.5. bear case: Bears need to get this below 69.5 again to continue the trading range or otherwise we see a bigger move upwards to the given targets. Have we already seen the giving up from the bears today? If we stay above 70.5, then it’s likely so. If they get it below 69.5 again, next target is 69.26 where I expect most bull stops to be and that would be a very important price for both sides. If bears print 69.5, a continuation of the trading range 68 - 70.5 is most likely. Invalidation is above 72.3. short term: Bullish as long as we stay above 69.5. Neutral below. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20 : No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates. current swing trade: Will do a swing long on a pullback tomorrow. trade of the day: Long since bar 6 or the double bottom around 69.3.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
RNDR Long Position (Accumulation Phase)Market Context: RNDR has been through an extended markdown phase, with market makers taking profits, driving prices down to fair value. Now, the market appears to be in an accumulation phase, where most of the weak hands have exited. This creates an opportunity for strategic entry, positioning for the next bullish move. Trade Setup: Entry: $4.70 - $5.30 Take Profit: First target: $6.30 Second target: $7.50 Third target: $9.00 Stop Loss: Daily close below $4.50 This trade aims to capitalize on the potential accumulation phase as RNDR prepares for a possible move higher. #RNDR #Crypto #Accumulation #PriceAction #Trading
Long
by Richtv_official
GBPUSD BEARS STILL GOT IT! WHAT HAPPENED TO THE BULLS??!The bears came in this week as anticipated but failed to reach the expected AOI from the previous short projection, hence, leaving us with no short trades this week, yet. Now attention is shifting towards the bullish side of the curve as price approach two significant AOIs (a weekly FVG and a 3-month demand zone). As we still seek to see a potential retracement of all the shorting from September, we will watch keenly what price does first within the FVG for bullish signal. Should it violate this level also, the demand zone below becomes our ultimate area for longs.
Long
by LloydFX
Nifty Intraday 23 Oct 2024 Levels for SellingToday Nifty made new low and following price action on every timeframe. For good risk reward if price starts moving upwards and taking reversal near 24600, then we can go for sell trade. For Followup trade, any 5 min candle close below 24445 then also we can go for sell trade. Note : Its just an analysis, wait for the price to confirm. Disclaimer : Always follow risk to reward, this is the only key to success in market, no matter how much good a trade is looking we never know the future.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by smrgrover2
SasanSeifi|Will 0.66800 - 0.66500 Support the Price Movement?Hey there, ✌ In the 4-hour timeframe, a downward trend is evident from the level of 0.69400. Currently, due to the breakdown of the significant support level at 0.68, the price has corrected to the liquidity zone of 0.67. If the momentum weakens in this price range and the level of 0.67 is maintained, we may witness a ranging trend with minor positive fluctuations. To better understand the continuation of the trend, attention should be given to the price's reaction at levels 0.67500, 0.67800, and 0.68. Overall, our outlook leans more towards a decline and correction towards the target of 0.66800 and the demand zone at 0.66500. It is expected that the price will be able to correct to the desired support levels. Subsequently, if the price maintains the ranges between 0.66800 and 0.66500 and confirms it, we will enter a ranging phase with positive fluctuations. The potential trends are also illustrated in the image above. ⭕The important support levels are 0.66500–0.66. 💢 This is just my personal analysis, not financial advice. If you found this helpful, feel free to like and comment – I'd love to hear your thoughts! Happy trading! ✌😊
by SasanSeifi
2
2024-10-21 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Sideways movement with some lower lows but closes were mostly weak. Neutral going into tomorrow, since both sides can get the breakout. Market is still controlled by bulls until we close below the daily 20ema and those are far away. dax futures comment: Look at the daily or 4h chart, cause the lower time frames are misleading. This is not as bearish as it looks on the 15m chart. It’s still just a minor pullback in this bull trend and we still have not touched the daily ema. The bull trend line and daily ema are coming closer and we will probably chop more until we hit them. Then we see where the market wants to go next. I still expect 20000 but not much more. I am neutral until I have seen 20k or daily close below 19300. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 19500 - 20000 bull case: Bulls did not find enough buyers above 19780 but they bought 19600, which was expected and important. We did not learn much and nothing changed to what I wrote in my weekly outlook. Invalidation is below 19500. bear case : Bears had a minor pullback but stayed inside the trading range under the ath. Nothing to get excited about. Will they try to get follow through tomorrow and fight for this to hit 19500? Less likely than bulls buying the dip again. Invalidation is above 19820. short term: Neutral inside given range. Still favoring the bulls for 20k but we could hit 19400 first. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. Right now there is no selling pressure. I am confident that we will hit 17000 in 2025 but timing is more important than price, so let’s not waste brain capital on being bearish for now. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Selling 19770 since market found no buyers above that price and produced many tails. The EU open was just weakness and we did not stop until we hit 19600.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
2024-10-21 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - Trading range 68 - 70.6 continues. Neutral as it gets in between. Don’t over analyse this range. comment : Bulls fighting for 70 and there is a chance this today was a lower low major trend reversal and we go up from here. Validation is only a daily close above 71, so don’t be early like me last week. Continuation of the trading range is a bit more likely than a bullish breakout. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 68 - 71 bull case: Bulls want to keep 70 support and break above the bear channel now. They still need to break the bear trend line and above the daily 20ema. Given the current chart, you simply can not hold longs above 70 for now. Invalidation is below 67.7. bear case: Bears keeping this at the lows is good for them. They could still try to get a third leg down to retest the September low 63.46 but right now that is as unlikely as bulls breaking above 71. I do think one side will give up this week and we see a bigger move. Do not trade on hopes of an event which could sent oil prices higher. That is not a trading strategy, that is gambling. Invalidation is above 71. short term: Neutral inside given range. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20: No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long 68.6 since it was previous support and close enough to the bull trend line to expect it to hold. Was good for 150+ ticks.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
EURUSD Potential LongAs EURUSD stalls at the immediate demand level talked about in the previously shared idea, our expectation was to see bullish price action print, which was delivered with Friday closing very bullish. While this was expected, it does not appear the buy move is ready as there are still some bears lingering in this market. With this in mind, my anticipation for this week is to see the Fiber trade above last Thursday's high (1.0874) where we have sell-stops sitting in the interim. Clearing this liquidity should be sufficient in seeing price roll deeper into that demand where we expect to see the bulls take charge for a bit, 1.0808 being the price of interest for buying. Should price print as predicted, we should have a retracement buy move play into our hands. See y'all mid-week,GLGT!! LloydFx
Long
by LloydFX
GOLD OUTLOOKIn this analysis we are focusing on 30M time frame for XAUUSD. In this analyze we are using parallel channel along with price action. Gold has been growing recently and the pair seems locally overbought, so as the pair is approach a parallel channel of 2680 - 2685. Price decline is to be expected. Let's delve deeper into these levels and potential outcomes. Always use stoploss for your trade. Always use proper money management and risk to reward ratio. #GOLD M30 Technical Analyze Expected Move.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TradeTacticsreal