#202441 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
wti crude oil: Bulls bought the daily 20ema and now we had gigantic up and gigantic down, means gigantic confusion. I favor another sideways to down movement for the second leg of the two-legged correction before bulls can try 77 or higher again. 75-76 is a bad spot to trade imo. Downside target is 74 or 73 and everything below would be bad for bulls.
Quote from last week:
comment: Wild, wild market currently. New low below 66.9, just to reverse for 13.95% or 925 ticks. You won’t see that move too often per year. So now what? Tough. Friday’s bar has a big tail above and we broke above the bear trend line, which could very well be a bull trap. A look at the monthly and weekly chart never hurts. They are both showing the same continuation pattern of a contracting market, since we did not break the lows below 63. Next bigger high which will most likely hold is the July one at 80.71. As of now bulls turned the market neutral again, where the middle of the potential range could be 72 if we use the July high and the September low.
comment : Bullish doji on the weekly with big tails above and below. 71.5 is a good low and likely to hold. I do expect another try by the bears though. Only question now is will we see 77+ before 74? I don’t know. So watch for momentum and hope along. I still favor the bulls for at least a retest of 77/78 but I do think we can hit 80 again. Given the strength of the move up, it is reasonable to expect a bigger second leg to 80 or higher.
current market cycle : trading range (triangle on the weekly tf)
key levels : 71 - 80
bull case: I continue to be bullish until bears can reject 77 or 78 again. Bulls now have formed a proper channel up and we are likely in W2 in a potential W5 series. Don’t trade based on that wave series because right now it’s a very rough guess.
Invalidation is below 71.3.
bear case: Bears had an amazing pullback last week and had to take profits on those 690 points. I don’t think we will see bigger bears coming around to fight for 75-76 they likely wait for 77/78 again. Otherwise I don’t have any arguments for the bears here.
Invalidation is above 79.
outlook last week:
s hort term: Neutral. I would not short 74.38 right now but favoring the bears for a pullback but only on weakness. Will only turn more bullish above 76 or around 72/73 (if bulls buy it). Pullback could go as deep as 70.
→ Last Sunday we traded 74.38 and now we are at 75.56. Neutral was good. Big up, big down, big confusion. Likely to trade more in the middle of that range, which we are doing.
short term: Neutral but expecting a retest of 77 and higher again. The closer to 74 you can long this, the better is what I think.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-06 : That bear trend is over and we are again in the big trading range 64 - 78/79.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Removed bearish two legged correction and added a potential 5-wave series.
