GOLD UPCOMING ROUTE MAPIn this analysis we are focusing on 1H time frame. As we know that gold has manage to create a new all time high ATH. So the current market trend was strongly bullish. and there is no clear market structure. In my opinion and what I'm expecting that gold price retest at least the FVG key level, then we'll plan a buy trade this FVG area and demand area is best zone for buying. Now wait for price when it comes to our key levels and how price react. Let's delve deeper into these levels and potential outcomes.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio.
#XAUUSD 1H Technical Analyze Expected Move.
Priceaction
2025-02-10 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: What did we learn today? Market is digesting any newsbombs quicker and quicker but we still have deep pull-backs. Today the volume was atrocious so I don’t think the bullish daily bar is all that important. If bulls get follow-through above 22000 tomorrow, I am clearly wrong and we test 22100 next and afterwards there is no more resistance until 22400.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 21300 - 22000
bull case: Bulls only objective is to print higher highs above 21967. Until they achieve that, market is in a triangle and bulls are not favored when buying the highs. They have prevented another much deeper sell-off below 21400 but given the low volume today, I don’t think many will be thrilled to buy above 21800 tomorrow. Above 21967 we go for 22100 next and after that is no more resistance until 21400.
Invalidation is below 21400.
bear case: Bears were fine with the gap down and did not fight the buying today. I do think tomorrow will be very different. Every bear who sold above 21800 made money since end of December. The price action is not bullish enough to make more bears doubt that we will strongly break above this triangle. First target is today’s open, 21760. Then we have the midpoint of this triangle around 21700, followed by last weeks close 21588. Below that is Globex low 21453 and then 21200.
Invalidation is above 21970.
short term: Bearish. Stop for shorts is 22110. If I’m wrong here, so be it but structure is neutral and odds favor the bears to keep making lower highs now and we test back down to at least the midpoint of this triangle around 21500.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-27: High’s are most likely in. Any short with stop 22200 is good. I’d like to see 20000 over the next 2-3 weeks.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying the big Globex gap down and then market did not print one single bearish signal until bar 45 and that was the first, so you can not sell it.
1000BONKUSDT: Ready for a Breakout?
🔥 **1000BONKUSDT.P** has been consolidating under resistance for a long time, accumulating liquidity. The price has tested **0.017630 USDT** multiple times, and whales are clearly building positions. The question is: will we see a breakout, or will there be another dip before the pump?
---
🔑 **Key Levels:**
**Support:**
**0.017630 USDT** — Major demand zone. A breakdown below this level could trigger further declines.
**0.016800 USDT** — Last defense for bulls to maintain the uptrend.
**Resistance:**
**0.018481 USDT** — Initial liquidity zone, where a local rejection may occur.
**0.019000 USDT** — Key level that, if broken, opens the way to 0.020 USDT.
**0.024379 USDT** — Ultimate target where large players might start taking profits.
---
🚀 **Trading Strategy:**
**Entry Points:**
- Long upon breakout of **0.018481 USDT**, confirmed by volume increase.
- Alternative entry on a retest of **0.017630 USDT**, provided support volumes increase.
**Stop-Loss:**
- Below **0.016800 USDT** to avoid liquidity grabs before the potential move up.
**Take-Profit Targets:**
**0.019000 USDT** — Partial profit-taking, securing position.
**0.020000 USDT** — Major target if momentum follows through.
**0.024379 USDT** — Ideal scenario if a strong impulse move occurs.
---
📈 **Market Analysis:**
Price has been consolidating near resistance, suggesting an impending breakout.
Large orders in the order book indicate whale activity.
Volume is starting to pick up, signaling a potential phase transition.
---
💡 **Conclusion:**
1000BONKUSDT.P is at a decisive moment. A confirmed breakout above **0.018481 USDT** could lead to a strong bullish move. However, if another fakeout and dump happen, it's time to reassess. What’s your take—ready for the pump? 🚀💬
Leap Ahead with a Bearish Divergence on Gold FuturesThe Leap Trading Competition: A Chance to Trade Gold Futures
TradingView’s "The Leap" Trading Competition is an opportunity for traders to test their futures trading skills. Participants can trade select CME Group futures contracts, including Gold Futures (GC) and Micro Gold Futures (MGC).
Register and participate here: TradingView Competition Registration .
This article presents a structured short trade setup based on a bearish divergence identified using the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and key pivot point levels for confirmation. The trade plan focuses on waiting for price to break below the pivot point at 2866.8 before executing the trade, with clear targets and risk management.
Identifying the Trade Setup
Bearish divergence occurs when price makes higher highs while an indicator, such as CCI, makes lower highs. This signals weakening momentum and a potential reversal. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) measures price deviations from its average and helps traders identify overbought or oversold conditions.
Pivot points are calculated from previous price action and serve as key support and resistance levels. The pivot at 2866.8 is the reference level in this setup. A breakdown below this level may suggest further downside momentum, increasing the probability of a successful short trade.
The trade plan combines CCI divergence with pivot point confirmation. While divergence signals a potential shift, entry is only considered if price trades below 2866.8. This approach reduces false signals and improves trade accuracy. The first target is set at 2823.0, aligning with an intermediate support level (S1), while the final target is near S2 at 2776.2, just above a UFO support zone.
Trade Plan and Risk Management
The short trade is triggered only if price trades below 2866.8. The stop loss is placed above the entry at a level ensuring at least a 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio.
Profit targets are structured to lock in gains progressively:
The first exit is at 2823.0, where partial profits can be taken.
The final exit is near 2776.2, positioned just above a UFO support level.
Stop placement may vary based on the trader’s preferred risk-reward ratio. Position sizing should be adjusted according to account size and market volatility.
Contract Specifications and Margin Requirements
Gold Futures (GC) details:
Full contract specs: GC Contract Specifications – CME Group
Contract size: 100 troy ounces
Tick size: 0.10 per ounce ($10 per tick)
Margin requirements depend on broker conditions and market volatility. Currently around $12,500 per contract.
Micro Gold Futures (MGC) details:
Full contract specs: MGC Contract Specifications – CME Group
Contract size: 10 troy ounces (1/10th of GC)
Tick size: 0.10 per ounce ($1 per tick)
Lower margin requirements provide access to smaller traders. Currently around $1,250 per contract.
Leverage impacts both potential gains and losses. Traders should consider market conditions and margin requirements when adjusting position sizes.
Execution and Market Conditions
Before executing the trade, price must break below 2866.8. Additional confirmation can be sought through volume trends and price action signals.
If price does not break the pivot, the short setup is invalid. If price consolidates, traders should reassess momentum before committing to the trade.
Conclusion
Bearish CCI divergence signals potential market weakness, but confirmation from the pivot breakdown is key before executing a short trade. A structured approach with well-defined targets and risk management increases the probability of success.
For traders in The Leap Trading Competition, this setup highlights the importance of discipline, confirmation, and scaling out of trades to manage risk effectively.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Silver | iHnS Pattern $36Buyers aren't doing too bad as we approach the mean but it looks like it's time for sellers to show what they got for a nice pullback
With a similar inverted head and shoulders pattern to what we saw in August of last year I would expect a SMA/liquidity pullback to the $30.50 break, and then a continuation towards trendline resistance for a target of $36.
#202506 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: I still think we will top out around 22000 but I also think we won’t go down for meaningful points before we have printed that price. We now have made 7 consecutive green weeks and the odds of a pull-back are far better than another strong move beyond 22000. I will decide on Monday on swing shorts for at least 21k and will continue to scale in and out of shorts for this.
current market cycle: Bull trend (very climactic move last weeks, market needs to take a breather)
key levels: 20500 - 22100
bull case: Bulls want to print 22000 and then continue. As long as bears are not stepping in, bulls will continue because it has been profitable for 3 months straight. My base case for the bulls has not changed since last Sunday. We are at the top or have broken above multiple bullish patterns and I think the upside will probably be very limited. Bulls know that buying new highs in hopes of higher ones is unsustainable and we are close to the point where the bull wedge breaks and bulls will wait for pull-backs to buy.
Invalidation is below 21400.
bear case: Bears have a red bar on Friday, wooo ducking hooo. The bull wedge looks like it can break on Monday but bears know that 22k is the price to print, so I think they will be cautious. Only a big gap down on futures open and then follow-through below 21500 could change that. Bears can’t expect either the bull trend line nor the daily 20ema to just break on the next touch. They still have nothing until we see much bigger selling pressure. Anything below 21500 next week, would be a huge surprise for the bears.
Invalidation is above 22200.
short term: Neutral until we break below 21700. Below 21700 we will likely close the gap down to 21585 and test the lower wedge bull line.
medium-long term from 2024-01-25: No more bullish talk. Full ducking bear mode.
current swing trade: Scaling in and out of shorts with stop 22300.
chart update: Adjusted bull wedge and bear targets.
#202506 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: RUN IT AGAIN. Lower highs, higher lows. Body gaps above (small though) and big bull gap below 21200. Market is in balance around 21500 and I do think for now market will spend more time between the given key levels until bigger news change that fact. Play was selling Friday, big gap down Monday and then sideways to up until late Friday. Let’s see if we repeat the cycle.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 20500 - 22100
bull case: Bulls want to stay above the weekly 20ema which is currently around 21200. They are fine with this trading range above 20000 because that’s still really bullish if you think about it.
Invalidation is below 21400.
bear case: Bears get spikes and that’s it. They are deep, so they are making money but it’s a tough way to make a living to wait for some news and be quick with the sell button. I do think they are heavily favored to continue down below 21600 and test 21500 and hopefully 21200 again. What I can’t see happening is a lower low below 20940 though. We have a big body gap from 21405 to 21566 and it would be good for the bears if they can close it tomorrow.
Invalidation is above 22000.
short term: Bearish. I want to see 21200 next week. For now all stops for shorts have to be 21970.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-09: Another lower high but also higher lows. Bears are not doing enough, so we are in a trading range below the ath. We are close to it that there is always the possibility of printing a higher high again. Bears need lower lows below 20600 before we can talk about 20000 again. I still think 20000 is doable in February.
current swing trade: None but will decide on futures open tonight if I want to get short with stop 21970.
chart update: Added triangle and bull & bear gap.
#202506 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: 70 should be bigger support and I expect more sideways movement here. It is somewhat lower probability than bears continuing with the selling because bulls managed to go above the prior day’s bar exactly two times in the last 15 trading days.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 70 - 75
bull case: Bulls need to print some consecutive bull bars or the selling won’t stop. Their first target is to test up to 72 and the daily 20ema and then test the bear trend line from 79.45. Bulls have going for them that market is not making meaningful lower lows and new lows are bought. Still, best they can hope for next week is to go sideways between 70 - 73.
Invalidation is below 69.7.
bear case: Bears are selling any bounce harder than bulls are buying new lows. They prevent bulls from printing any decent bull bar or even consecutive bars above the 4h 20ema. They also have going for them that the volume during the selling is much greater than during the pull-backs. For now bears are still in full control and they are favored for lower prices. Problem for them is that 70 is a big round number and also above the trading that the market stayed in from October to December. Selling close to 70 is a bad sell and unless we get bearish oil news, we can expect bears to wait for pull-backs to 72 or 73 before selling again.
Invalidation is above 75.
short term: Neutral for now. No interest in this tbh. 70 should hold but the last thing I want to do is buying this.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added bear channel
#202506 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Yeah I won’t make shit up now. 4 consecutive daily doji bars around the middle of this triangle. Either fade the extremes or wait for the next big impulse. I still think that with all the ridiculous bullish crypto news over the past weeks, this has not printed 110k, is a big sign of weakness and the next impulse will be to the downside to test 73k again. Until then, play the range.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 90k - 110k
bull case: Bulls printed another lower high and have nothing to show for after this week. They need daily closes above the 20ema and 100k to gain control again.
Invalidation is below 88k.
bear case: Bears closing every daily bar at the lows but fail to make lower lows below 95k, which is also weak. They are content with fading any bounce and until the broader market wants to reduce risk, this is probably staying between the given key levels.
Invalidation is above 110k.
short term: Neutral. Play the range until broken.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: 75000 is my biggest target for now and until bears get there, any lower target is just unreasonable. My bias is bearish going into 2025 and I think the odds of a bigger leg down are good.
We are in a big trading range until it’s clearly broken. Bearish targets will only happen once we get a strong move below 90k.
current swing trade: Nope
chart update: Nothing
XRP Breaks Out of Downtrend Is a Big Rally About to Begin ?XRP is currently trading around 2.42 and has recently broken out of a descending channel formation. This breakout suggests a potential shift in momentum from bearish to bullish. The price is now consolidating just above the trendline, indicating that buyers are stepping in to support this level.
The descending channel was characterized by consistent lower highs and lower lows. However, the breakout above the upper boundary of the channel signals that the selling pressure may be weakening. If the price holds above this level, further upside movement is expected.
A key support level is now established around 2.40 to 2.42, which was previously resistance. If the price stays above this zone, the bullish case strengthens. Immediate resistance is found around 2.50 to 2.55, where price has faced rejection before. A decisive break above this area would confirm further upside movement.
Volume analysis shows that trading activity is still relatively low, which is common during consolidation phases. A strong increase in volume above 2.45 would provide additional confirmation of bullish strength. Monitoring this volume breakout is essential for validating the move.
Momentum indicators such as the RSI should also be observed. If RSI moves above 55 to 60, it would indicate growing buying pressure. A hidden bullish divergence, if present, would add further confidence to the breakout.
The first target for this breakout is 2.50 to 2.55, where resistance is expected. If price gains strength beyond this zone, the second target would be 2.65 to 2.70. These levels mark potential areas where price could face selling pressure or profit-taking.
To manage risk, a stop-loss should be placed below 2.38 to 2.40 to avoid potential fakeouts. If price falls back below this support, the breakout could be invalidated, leading to a potential retest of lower levels.
XRP is at a crucial turning point, with signs of bullish momentum building. If the price sustains above the breakout zone and breaks through 2.45 to 2.48 with strong volume, a larger upward move could follow. Traders should remain cautious but keep an eye on price action for confirmation of the next trend direction.
ETH Building Blocks...Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
ETH Building Blocks:
📈 Short-Term Bullish:
ETH is currently trading within a short-term bullish block.
📈 Long-Term Bullish:
If the $3,500 resistance level is broken to the upside, ETH is expected to enter a long-term bullish block, initiating a new bullish phase toward the $4,000 mark.
📉 Short-Term Bearish:
If ETH breaks below the short-term bullish block at $3,250, it will enter a short-term bearish block phase.
📉 Long-Term Bearish:
If the $3,000 level is broken to the downside, a long-term bearish movement toward the lower bound of the long-term bearish block, around the $2,500 mark, is expected.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
USDCAD - Weekly forecast, Technical Analysis & Trading IdeasMidterm forecast:
1.39318 is a major support, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be uptrend.
Technical analysis:
While the RSI support #1 at 47 is not broken, the probability of price decrease would be too low.
A trough is formed in daily chart at 1.34185 on 09/25/2024, so more gains to resistance(s) 1.44670, 1.46000, 1.46900 and more heights is expected.
Supports and Resistances:
1.46900
1.46000
1.38884
1.38168
1.37487
1.36876
1.36072
1.35404
1.34323
1.33664
1.31816
1.30929
__________________________________________
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XRP/USDT Short Opportunity: Daily CHoCH and Fresh Supply Zone XRP/USDT is presenting a high-probability short opportunity as it approaches key technical levels. A Change of Character (CHoCH) on the daily timeframe signals bearish momentum, while a fresh H1 supply zone at $2.42 could serve as a strong resistance point. With these factors aligning, a potential downside move to the $2.18 level is in focus.
Key Technical Factors Supporting the Short
Daily CHoCH Formation:
XRP/USDT has printed a CHoCH on the daily chart, indicating a shift from bullish to bearish market structure. This signals a possible trend reversal as sellers begin to take control.
H1 Fresh Supply Zone at $2.42:
On the H1 timeframe, a newly formed supply zone around $2.42 aligns with the bearish narrative. This zone is likely to act as a strong resistance, providing an ideal entry point for short positions.
Target Level at $2.18:
If the supply zone holds, the next logical support level lies at $2.18, making this a reasonable take-profit target.
Risk Considerations
Volume Confirmation: Ensure there is bearish momentum (increased sell volume) as price taps the supply zone.
Invalidation: A clean break above $2.45 would invalidate the short setup.
GBPJPY Price ActionIf you followed today's Early Analysis on GBP/JPY, you would have noticed that the pair has already moved over 100 pips. Now, it’s time for a pullback, and there’s a high probability of a reversal from these levels. Take a closer look, manage your risk with a stop loss, and avoid letting greed dictate your decisions. Wishing you the best of luck and happy trading! Thank you.
GBPJPY Price ActionHello Traders,
I hope you're all doing well! I wanted to share a quick market observation with you. On the 4H timeframe, I noticed that price entered the demand zone and swept the liquidity. After switching to the 1H and then the 30M timeframes, I observed a divergence forming. For those of you who trade based on divergences, this might be worth checking out.
Personally, I prefer to focus on price action, and from what I see, there’s enough supply in the current zone. I believe it’s now time for demand to take over, which could lead to a reversal. If price starts moving, we might see a Rally Base Rally pattern forming.
Keep a close eye on this setup, and as always, trade wisely. Wishing you all the best and happy trading!
Cheers!
BTC/USDT at a Make or Break Moment Analysis Bitcoin is currently forming an inverse cup and handle pattern on the hourly timeframe, signaling potential bearish continuation. The price is testing the neckline support around 96,480 USDT, and a confirmed breakdown below this level could trigger further downside momentum. However, the most critical support level to watch is 92,000 USDTit is essential for Bitcoin to hold this level to maintain any bullish momentum. If BTC closes below 92K, we can expect further declines, possibly towards 88,500–89,000 USDT or even lower. On the upside, 97,500 USDT remains a key resistance, and only a sustained recovery above this level would invalidate the bearish structure. For now, all eyes are on the 92K support zone, as losing this level could lead to a deeper correction in the market.
2025-02-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Relentless selling on every rip. Bulls can’t catch a break and only a daily close above 75 will change that. Bears will likely get 70 tomorrow and then we will either see some bigger support or acceleration downwards.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 70 - 75
bull case: Well, some bulls are buying heavily for an hour or two and then it crumbles again. Bulls have no arguments and they better make 70 support or 65 is next.
Invalidation is below 70.
bear case: Bears are selling every rip. That’s about it. Their next target is 70 and for now I think it could be support for longer but we will have to see. I currently not trading this much. Bears have a wedge down and are still inside a bigger bear channel. Try to look for shorts close to the upper bear trend line with stop 75.2.
Invalidation is a daily close above 75.
short term: Bearish on pull-backs higher for target 70 but then neutral again.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Selling every big rip continues to be the name of the game.
2025-02-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Strong bull trend from the open and I now have several measured moves that lead to 21800 and 22k. It would be surprising if bulls could not get it tomorrow or Friday. Can only get bearish again below 21550ish.
current market cycle: bull trend until we get a daily close below 21550.
key levels: 21400 - 22000
bull case: Bulls continue with higher highs and higher lows but the highs are barely higher. They will likely get another ath over the next 2 days but the upside will probably be very limited around 22k. Pullback has to stay above 21550ish but best would be to stay above 21600.
Invalidation is below 21400.
bear case: If bulls can not claim 21800 tomorrow, I do think we have a decent chance of a big reversal but for now, bears have completely given up and they need a bull trend line break to turn market neutral again.
Invalidation is above 22100.
short term: Bullish for 22k if we stay above 21550ish and if we get 21800 tomorrow early. 22k is possible over the next 2 days.
medium-long term from 2024-01-25: No more bullish talk. Full bear mode.
current swing trade: None.
trade of the day: Buying anywhere I guess.
GBPAUD - Weekly forecast, Technical Analysis & Trading IdeasMidterm forecast:
While the price is below the resistance 2.02967, beginning of downtrend is expected.
We make sure when the support at 1.94297 breaks.
If the resistance at 2.02967 is broken, the short-term forecast -beginning of downtrend- will be invalid.
Technical analysis:
A peak is formed in daily chart at 2.01490 on 02/03/2025, so more losses to support(s) 1.97390, 1.95896 and minimum to Major Support (1.94297) is expected.
Take Profits:
1.99134
1.97390
1.95896
1.94297
1.92784
1.91271
1.89131
1.85883
1.82533
1.80340
1.77000
1.72489
__________________________________________
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