Analysis-NAS100-H4_October-2024On Monday, an interesting trading opportunity arose.
Unfortunately, I was on a plane and couldn’t act, but it also would have hit the target.
I remain active and prepared for upcoming trades.
Priceaction
Potential trade setup on GBPUSDWe are looking at a short trade on GBPUSD based on the stretch strategy. There is direction alignment with this trade, though the trend is still uptrend phase 2. Trade has taken out the lower stretch. We will exit the trade once range has been achieved.
Trader Order Details:
GBPUSD(Short)
E - 1.3082
SL - 1.3095
T - 1.3024
We will be tracking this move and updating the post as we go along on the charts and on video. Keep a look out for it traders.
SasanSeifi|Will $1800 Be Ethereum's Next Support Level?Hey there, ✌
Ethereum has encountered corrections from the key resistance level of $2700 in the long-term time frame. Currently, the price reacted around $2200 and managed to experience positive movements toward the $2500 zone, as highlighted in recent analyses. However, mid-term analysis still indicates a bearish trend, with the price ranging at the $2300 level.
In the mid-term, it's anticipated that Ethereum may approach the $1800 zone through some corrections. Upon reaching this level, market reaction will be crucial in understanding the future movement.
Key resistance zones at the moment lie between $2500 and $2700. On the other hand, if the price breaks and holds above $2700, we might see further upward movement toward $3000 to $3200
This analysis is my personal viewpoint and not financial advice. If you found this helpful, please like and comment – I’d love to hear your thoughts! Happy trading! ✌😊
GBPJPY: Bullish Movement Ahead of FOMC 🇬🇧🇯🇵
GBPJPY has a perfect potential to continue growing before the FOMC minutes today.
The price started to consolidate after a test of a rising trend on a 4H
and violated its neckline then.
The price will most likely heading towards 195.1 level now.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
TRENDLINE AND PRICEACTIONIn this analysis we are focusing on 1H time frame for XAUUSD. Today I'm looking for potential buy. Let's delve deeper into these levels and potential outcomes.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and risk to reward ratio.
# Gold 1H Technical Analyze Expected Move.
LIQUIDITY CONCEPT MODULEToday, I’m focusing on identifying potential buying opportunities in this trade. I'm analyzing market trends, recent price movements, and key support levels to determine the best entry point. I'm particularly interested in signs of bullish momentum, such as increased volume or positive news catalysts that could drive the price higher. By keeping a close eye on technical indicators and market sentiment, I'm aiming to position myself strategically for a favorable trade outcome. So wait and watch when price enter into our zone and which trade market will give to us.
Always use proper money management and R:R ratio.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
# USDJPY 4H Technical Analyze Expected Move.
2024-10-08 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
oil - Good pullback by the bears. Wait and see if bulls buy it and market found a bottom. Pullback could get some more but I doubt it will be much. 72-74 is neutral. Wait for strong momentum to the upside again.
From yesterday:
short term: max bullish but maybe one comment… No matter the reason for the short squeeze, it can turn down again violently and form a gigantic range. So imagine if we retest the breakout price of 72.36. How many traders would be trapped then? Don’t be early.
comment : Low of the day was 72.71. Hope you listened.
current market cycle: strongest bull trend
key levels: 70 - 80
bull case: Bulls got a big pullback which will probably be a great buying opportunity for many who can hold through more pain and scale in lower. Was 72.71 the low for this pullback? Possible but market almost never prints one big surprise bar and then moves in the other direction. Need better confirmation and strong buying again. Targets above are obvious. As long as bulls stay above 71, I think they are good and we will retest 77 and maybe higher.
Invalidation is below 71.
bear case: I don’t think bears did much here. More likely bulls wanted to secure the windfall profits and reduce risk. Are bears shorting 73 now in hopes of an even bigger reversal down to 70? I highly doubt that. The breakout price was retested imo and we can move higher again. Best bears can get is more sideways movement around 73. Bears also had 2 decent legs down. A third one is possible but betting on it might not be that good of a strategy here.
Invalidation is above 75.
short term: Neutral around 73-74. Bullish above 75 and bearish below 70.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-06: That bear trend is over and we are again in the big trading range 64 - 78/79. I would update this again if we break above 80 with follow through.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Shorts at 77 which was the big red line and August high. Market spiked and bulls who bought above 76.5 did not even had the chance to exit break even.
2024-10-08 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax - Do or die for the bears at exactly at the bear trend line and last weeks close and also Monday’s pullback high around 19260. Above 19290, bulls are favored for a breakout and target 19330 or higher. If we turn here, I expect 19100 or lower.
dax futures
comment: Watch the 30m 20ema tomorrow and see if bulls can hold above it. The 19250-19280 area should be resistance and I favor the bears, once we drop below 19200 again. Bulls want the breakout above 19280 and then a strong move for a retest of 19491 ath. We are near are exactly at two very important trend lines. One is the big bull trend line from early August (please see my weekly post and chart) and the other is the bear trend line from the ath. I expect a huge day tomorrow, once we know who wins the battle. Right now I think odds are 50/50.
current market cycle: bull trend (big trend line is currently at 18950 on xetra) - close below 19000 ends that bull trend
key levels: 19000 - 20000
bull case: Bulls need to break above the bear trend line to stay above the bull trend line and daily 20ema. Market traded the 4th consecutive day around the daily ema and tomorrow we will likely have a huge breakout. If bulls win, we will probably retest the ath.
Invalidation is below 19000.
bear case : Bears are in do or die mode. Either reverse hard and stay below the bear trend line, or give up and see 19400+ again. Both sides showed strength this week and there is no clear direction for tomorrow. Bear case gets better once we trade below 19200 again.
Invalidation is above 19280.
short term: Neutral between 19200 - 19280. Bearish below, bullish above. Best to wait for the breakout tomorrow or Friday but I favor tomorrow.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this.
current swing trade: Will swing in the direction of tomorrows breakout
trade of the day: Strong selling through Globex but market made a tripple bottom near 19050 and whenever the market tries to do something 2-3 times and fails, it will likely try the opposite. Long above 19130 - bar 10 was a very good trade.
How To Have An Edge Over The Markets!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
Today I want to share a basic trading plan that you can follow to quantify your trading edge.
📌Step 1:
First, start from the higher timeframes like Daily/Weekly to identify the current long-term trend. is it bullish, bearish or stuck inside a range?
If the price is sitting in the middle of nowhere, then it is a NO trade zone as price has 50% change to go either up or down. Thus no edge!
📚Wait for the price to approach the lower bound or upper bound. Then proceed to Step 2
📌Step 2:
No matter how strong a horizontal / non-horizontal support or resistance is, it can still be broken. Thus don't buy/sell blindly as price approaches a support/resistance.
Instead, zoom in to lower timeframes like H1 and M30 to look for setups.
🏹A basic approach would be to wait for a swing low to be broken downward around a resistance as a signal that the bears are taking over.
In parallel, wait for a swing high to be broken upward around a support for the bulls to take over.
This would be the confirmation to enter the trade.
⚙️Of course, your second edge would be through risk management by targeting at least double than your indented risk.
But that's a topic for another post 😉
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Hope you find the content of this post useful 🙏
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Gold price analysis October 8Fundamental analysis Gold prices attracted some selling for the fifth consecutive day on Tuesday, falling to their lowest in more than a week, close to the $2,630 trading range support level in the first half of the European session. Friday’s upbeat US jobs report provides further evidence of a resilient labor market and forced investors to trim their bets on another aggressive rate cut by the Federal Reserve. This, in turn, was seen as a major factor undermining demand for the non-yielding yellow metal.
That said, a softening US dollar (USD), coupled with the risk of further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, could provide some support to safe-haven gold prices. Traders may also refrain from placing aggressive bets ahead of the release of the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday. Additionally, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the US Producer Price Index (PPI), scheduled for release on Thursday and Friday, will provide fresh impetus to XAU/USD.
Technical analysis
Gold price is pushed up to 2647 before the US session. Attention price zone 2649-2651. When the US session enters, the price cannot break this zone, we sell to 2622-2611. In case this zone breaks, we wait for retes BUY in the 2643-2645 zone, target today 2660. Wish you successful trading with the strategy and important price zones that I have noted.
SasanSeifi| Will It Rebound or Drop Further?Hey there, ✌In the weekly timeframe, as you can see, Atom's price has been in a downtrend from the $8.50 range and has now corrected to the crucial weekly support level at $4. Currently, the price is trading around $4.
In the long-term timeframe, maintaining the $4 level is crucial. The price has reacted to this important support, and if it consolidates here with confirmation on lower timeframes, we could expect a potential rebound with positive fluctuations toward the $5 and $6.50 levels.
If positive momentum develops, we should watch how the price reacts to the $6.50 level. To continue the bullish trend and reach the target supply zone of $7 to $8, breaking the $6.50 level is necessary.
On the other hand, if the $4 level breaks and the price stabilizes below it, the likelihood of further correction increases, with potential downside targets of $3.20 to $2.30.
🔶The chart is in logarithmic scale.
This analysis is my personal viewpoint and not financial advice. If you found this helpful, please like and comment – I’d love to hear your thoughts! Happy trading! ✌😊
SasanSeifi|Will It Break Resistance or Test Lower Supports?Hey there, ✌ On the weekly timeframe, BINANCE:LTCUSDT price movement, after ranging around $84, faced a downward trend and corrected to the $50 level. Currently, the price is trading in a range around $63 with limited fluctuations.
In the long-term weekly timeframe, key support levels for Litecoin are at $50 and $42. To continue the upward trend, it’s essential for the price to break the critical resistance at $85 and hold above it. If this resistance is broken, the likelihood of further price growth increases.
For a clearer understanding of the price movement, it’s crucial to closely monitor Litecoin’s reaction to the $70 to $85 range. If the price fails to sustain above these levels, we may see a correction and a potential return to the major support zones.
🔶The chart is in logarithmic scale.
This analysis reflects my personal view and is not financial advice. If you found this helpful, feel free to like and comment – I’d love to hear your thoughts! Happy trading! ✌😊
2024-10-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Bears stuffed the bullish price action from Friday with a decent bear bar closing on it’s low. Markets continue in their respective trading ranges near the highs and the daily ema have held again. If bears can generate follow through selling tomorrow, the highs could be in for now and we could see a deeper pullback.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: 5750 - 5800 is my neutral range (written in my weekly update) and bears managed to get 5734 but could not close below the daily 20ema. To take control of the market, bears need follow through tomorrow below 5720 and a close below 5700 would be good for them. If they fail, bulls will buy it and we continue inside the range.
current market cycle: nested bull wedges
key levels : 5700 - 5850
bull case: Bulls have to stay above the daily 20ema or lose control, that’s their target for tomorrow. Since market is trading below the 1h 20ema, we will probably go more sideways during Globex and EU session before we see a bigger impulse again. Bulls still have the lower wedge bull trend line around 5700 and that would be their last stand before bears can take control and push this much lower again. Odds favor the bulls to stay above 5690 until we tested the trend line more than once. They rarely break on the second/third hit.
Invalidation is below 5690.
bear case: Bears want to trade below the daily ema and test the bull trend line around 5690-5700. We have spent enough time at the highs and a new impulse is around the corner. As of now I have no opinion where we might break out to. Bears can also make the case for a head & shoulders top and a measured move down would bring us to almost exactly the 50% pullback of the recent bull trend (5638ish). Coincidences eh.
Invalidation is above 5850.
short term: Neutral at the daily 20ema. It’s more reasonable to expect more sideways instead of a breakout. When it happens, watch for follow through before you join the trend.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect at least 5300 to be hit again in 2024.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day : Globex was bearish enough and once market traded below the 1h 20ema, it could not stay above it for long. Overall I’d say it was a tricky day. Shorting inside the trading range bar 30 - 45 was not a good trade since market just went up and down inside the tight range. Bears showed some strength with bars 45 and 47. Can you then reliably short on bar 50? I doubt it. To weak of a signal and you have the bar 18 low, so you would be shorting low in a potential trading range. Bar 53 was even worse to short, since it was a perfect double bottom with bar 18. Bar 54 was the bar that surely made the market always-in-short and 55 was the give up bar but then market printed one more strong bear bar and reversed for 11 points, trapping late bears.
2024-10-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Oil - 16% in 5 days. Alrighty then. No matter your religious beliefs, you can not buy and pray for higher prices. Buying near the 1h 20ema was profitable since last Tuesday but the rally is so climactic that we will very likely see a bigger pullback soon that will be driven by traders taking profits and reducing their risk. Don’t be exit liquidity. Otherwise it’s obviously max bullishness and we can expect a test of 80 soon. Any decent pullback is a good buying opportunity, just don’t buy big bear bars and hope for the best. Wait until market turns up again.
comment : Does not make sense to try to come up with a bull/bear case when the market is doing one of the nastiest short squeezes ever. It’s max bullish and your job now is to evaluate potential spots to get long. No matter how you put it, you can only long this on strong momentum or a decent pullback. The 1h 20ema was profitable for 4 trading days now, look for longs around that price. Can we go higher without a better pullback? Look at the rally 2023-06-28 to 2023-09-28. 3 months of a very strong bull rally and markets always have pullbacks. It could obviously still go higher before a pullback but I would not buy above 77 right now. Market has to form a better pattern for this to be sustainable. Right now it’s a short squeeze and we will soon see a bigger pullback because trader want to lock in profits in order to reduce their risk.
current market cycle: strongest bull trend
key levels: 70 - 80
bull case: Bulls are in control. Don’t look for shorts, can almost certainly only get burned. Potential targets for bulls to begin to take profits are above us. I got two bear trend lines around 77 - 79. I’d be surprised if we straight go for 80 without a better pullback. Any pullback is a good buying opportunity, just don’t long too early and get trapped in a deeper one you can not hold onto.
Invalidation is below 73.
bear case: Get outta here, no bear case.
Invalidation is above 80.
short term: max bullish but maybe one comment… No matter the reason for the short squeeze, it can turn down again violently and form a gigantic range. So imagine if we retest the breakout price of 72.36. How many traders would be trapped then? Don’t be early.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-06 : That bear trend is over and we are again in the big trading range 64 - 78/79. I would update this again if we break above 80 with follow through.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Long anywhere and have the balls to hold.
GBPUSD Price ActionHey Traders! Long time no see, hope you're all doing great! I wanted to share a super simple setup I’m using. It’s based on the Previous Day's High/Low and the Session Opening High/Low.
I saw price rejecting the Previous Day’s Low and marked the Session Opening High/Low as an Order Block, so I took an entry targeting the Previous Day’s High.
There’s also some imbalance, so price could move up there. As always, risk management is everything! I’m using a 1:8 risk-reward ratio, which looks solid. Just manage your risk, stay calm, and avoid any stress. Wishing you all the best and happy trading! Thank you!
DBCORP: Positive Trend with Buy Opportunity on DipsNSE:DBCORP : Positive Trend with Buy Opportunity on Dips
NSE:DBCORP is exhibiting a positive trend, but careful attention is needed around key levels due to possible trapped trader zones. A buy-on-dip strategy near support may provide an optimal entry point.
Support Zone: 335 – This is a strong area to consider buying on dips, with the last stop-loss set at 325 for risk management.
Resistance Levels: 375 / 396 – Resistance here could lead to temporary pullbacks. Watch for a breakout above 396 to confirm strong bullish continuation.
Price Action: The stock's behavior suggests some trapped traders, so it's essential to monitor price action closely for false breakouts. A buy-on-dip strategy near the 335 support could offer good risk-reward opportunities if the trend holds.
Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst. This analysis is for educational purposes only. Please perform your own research or consult a financial advisor before taking any trading decisions.
NVDA Wave Count: Wave 3 Targets Above $125, Breakdown Below $123Hey traders, it’s Mindbloome Trader here with an NVDA wave count from the 4-hour to 30-minute chart. If we break above $125, we’re aiming for wave 3 on the upside. But if we drop below $123, we could see more downside action. Stay sharp and trade what you see!
NVDA Key Levels: Long Above $125.17, Short Below $123Hey traders, Mindbloome Trader here! Just sharing my latest NVDA chart—if we break above $125.17, I’m going long. But if we dip below $123, I’m ready to short. These levels are key, so keep an eye on them. As always, trade what you see and stay sharp!
NVDA Breakout Setup: Long Above $125.17, Short Below $123!Hey traders, Mindbloome Trader here! In this video, we’re zooming in on NVDA from the 4-hour to 30-minute charts. It’s simple—if we break above $125.17, I’m going long. But if we drop below $123, I’m ready to short. Watch the levels and trade what you see, not what you think!
NVDA Breakout: Key Levels to WatchHey traders, it’s Mindbloome Trader here! In this video, I’m breaking down NVDA from the weekly to the 4-hour chart. We’re at a crucial point—if we break above $125, we could rally to $127-$129. But if we slip below $122, watch for a drop to $120 or lower. Stay sharp and remember—trade what you see, not what you think!
S&P bulls maintain control but no initiative yetLast week was characterized by controlled selling, with prices drifting down slowly as the market awaited the unemployment data released on Friday. As we can see on the daily chart, sellers were unable to close the day below the previous day's low, even after a significant sell-off on Tuesday. Once the unemployment data was published, alleviating concerns about a potential recession, the bulls regained control, and the week closed on a positive note.
The next key objective for buyers is to break through the resistance around 574.7 . Given that this level has been retested multiple times, it's unlikely to hold. However, we still need to closely monitor the price's reaction to this level and observe what happens immediately after the breakout.
The long-term outlook remains bullish. In the short term, there is still a high possibility that prices will continue consolidating within the 565–575 range , as the market remains influenced by political uncertainty in the U.S.
USDCHF: Marry One Pair and DO NOT Cheat One of the best tips I could ever give to any beginning or developing trader is to choose one or two financial securities and stick solely with them. At the start, it's natural for many of us to diversify our watchlists with a wide range of instruments - ranging from forex pairs to stocks and even cryptocurrencies. However, as time progresses, we come to realise that focusing on one or two pairs is more than sufficient. Working with them consistently and making necessary adjustments along the way can lead to long-term success.
The most significant benefit of this approach is the development of what is often referred to as a ‘sixth sense.’ The more you analyse, monitor, and trade the same instrument, the deeper your understanding of it becomes. A helpful way to think about this is through the analogy of learning a language. If you practice the same one or two languages daily, your skills improve over time. You develop muscle memory, an affiliation with the language, and expert intuition, making it easier to read, write, listen, and speak. Trading is no different - by focusing on one or two securities, you sharpen your focus and deepen your understanding of them, rather than diluting your attention across too many instruments.
Every security has its own unique characteristics - its own "universe." By sticking to a limited number of them, you can gain greater insight and mastery over time.
Last year, we applied this principle with EUR/GBP, one of the two pairs we've been trading for years. This time, we will use USD/CHF as an example.
As inferred from the detailed illustration, over the past months, we have executed 6 trade positions on USD/CHF, netting a total of +8.3% with a win rate of 66% . Currently, we have one position running in the portfolio (a long trade at ), which is running in profits of +1.5% for the time being. In addition, we aim to execute additional positions in the coming weeks, provided everything aligns with our game plan.
By closely monitoring the daily movements of this instrument, we have been able to identify and capitalise on several strong swing positions. This has deepened our connection with the currency pair and enhanced our understanding of its price behaviour.
As with any craft, experience leads to mastery. A useful analogy here is the game of chess. How do you improve your chess skills? Through hard work, continuous practice, and patience. By revisiting the same patterns over the years, you establish a solid connection with your approach to the game. The same principle applies to trading.
One of the most beneficial strategies we've adopted is to "fall in love" with a single financial instrument (or two), trading it consistently without allowing distractions to pull our focus away.
SasanSeifi|Will the 0.30 Cent Level Hold?Hey there, ✌ BINANCE:ADAUSDT In the daily timeframe, as observed, the price followed a downward trend from the 0.80 cent range, extending the correction down to 0.30 cents. Afterward, the price entered a consolidation phase within the 0.30 cent range, which has since been maintained. Currently, we’re seeing a breakout of the long-term descending trend line, and the price is trading around the 0.35 cent level.
The scenario we can consider in the daily timeframe is that, given the preservation of the demand zone and after accumulating liquidity, the price could see an upward movement towards the target of 0.39 cents and the supply zone in the 0.42 cent range. To confirm further upward movement, we need to observe the price’s reaction to these zones. (For a continuation of the uptrend and reaching the 0.50 cent target, the supply zone needs to be broken, with the price stabilizing above it.)
On the other hand, if the price falls below the 0.30 cent range after a consolidation phase and stabilizes, the probability of further correction increases.
💢This analysis is my personal viewpoint and not financial advice. If you found this helpful, please like and comment – I’d love to hear your thoughts! Happy trading! ✌😊
