2024-10-29 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Mixed and still undecided. Not one broke out of their patterns today and I expected the breakout last Friday. Dax faked to the upside to sell off to the bull trend line again while nasdaq printed a strong bullish outside bar and is now near the top of the bull wedge. All patterns are still valid and the only constant is that bears are not able to generate follow through selling, so naturally market tries the opposite.
dax futures
comment : Daily chart says it all. Bulls not strong enough to close a day at the highs but bears even weaker and not able to print lower lows. 19600 is the middle of the range and mean reversion pays. I still lean more bullish than bearish for another run at the ath.
current market cycle: late bull trend
key levels: 19400 - 20000
bull case: Bulls broke above the minor bull channel but it was a trap and market sold off to near the bull trend line. As long as this line holds and market makes higher lows, I favor the bulls to retest the ath or go higher for 20000. The current trading range is fairly tight, so there is no deeper meaning to what the market is doing. No side has an advantage and we are waiting for the next impulse. Play the range until it clearly stops working.
Invalidation is below 19490.
bear case: Bears had a decent sell off today but market closed only 40 points lower. Bears need to start printing lower lows but most bears use the lows to cover and scalp out of positions.
Invalidation is above 19750.
short term: Bullish below 19600 for at least 19700. Stop is 19490
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. Right now there is no selling pressure. I am confident that we will hit 17000 in 2025 but timing is more important than price, so let’s not waste brain capital on being bearish for now.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying before EU open was good if you were awake. The selling after the open surprised me big time and I absolutely did not expect bears to be able to get all the way down to below 19600. Good for you if you took it. Best trade was obviously selling 19700 and just holding. Was tough to take if you were long before, because the breakout look good enough.
Priceaction
2024-10-29 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Gold - 2800 is close, nothing is stopping this. BTFD. I expect bigger profit taking around 2800.
gold
comment: I gave the 2800 target a long long time ago and we are close. Only question is, where do you enter new longs? We have a decent channel upwards where the lower trend line is around 2760. Market also respected the 1h 20ema today. We have a big bull trend line from July right above us and that should be resistance until clearly broken. I can’t see this breaking above it, so I would rather buy on pullbacks and I do think there is a very good chance we will see a bigger correction once we reach 2800.
current market cycle: late bull trend
key levels: 2750 - 2800
bull case: Bulls want 2800, that’s it. Any pullbacks should stay inside the current channel and not go below 2760. The rally has become climactic and we can expect a pullback/correction soon.
Invalidation is below 2760.
bear case: Bears see the pattern which lead to around 2800 and it’s a big obvious number. Not many want to short this until market has reached it and they see more bulls taking profits. That is why we are currently in a big hurry to get to the target and bears are not fighting it. On the monthly chart this rally is beyond climactic already and I seriously don’t know if Gold ever printed bigger gains in 4 months or even 4 straight big green months at all. This price action is unsustainable and we will see a bigger correction over the next months.
Invalidation is above 2810.
short term: Bullish and you should not look for shorts until we have touched 2800 and bears build much greater selling pressure.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very strong breakout above, again. Market currently has no ceiling. Most likely 2700 next and I do think 3000 could be a potential target if we continue. There is certainly an argument for a measured move based on the bull rally from 2018-08 to 2020-08.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying the breakout around US open above 2770, which was a textbook breakout and good for 160 ticks. Also legit was buying the 1h 20ema, which could have been more profitable but with more risk since your stop had to be wider.
GOLD CRT OUTLOOKIn this analysis we are focusing on 15M time frame for XAUUSD. I'm looking buy opportunity today. by using CRT concept. Let's delve deeper into these levels and potential outcomes.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio.
This is just my analyze or prediction.
#GOLD M15 Technical Analyze Expected Move.
GOLD M30 FORECASTIn this analysis we are focusing on 30M time frame for XAUUSD. I'm looking potential sell today. By using trendline and liquidity concept. So wait for price wait for rejection wait for confirmation. Let's see what happens and which opportunity market will give us. Without any confirmation we could not execute our trade.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio.
This is just my analyze or prediction.
#GOLD M30 Technical Analyze Expected Move.
USOIL & NZDCHF Missed Position Recaps (+8%)Missed Positions -
TVC:USOIL +4%
FX:NZDCHF +4%
Here I cover two missed positions from last week, I was travelling at the time and out of my normal routine so this was one element as to why I missed these trades.
I fully explain through the video my thoughts from the higher timeframe down to my entries, with emphasis being put on how easy it can be to achieve a double digit week.
Hope you enjoy!
2024-10-28 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Oil - Gigantic bear gap with Globex open and market closed 370 ticks down or a bit more than 5%. 1h 20ema is resistance until clearly broken. Bulls are in a world of hurt here. 66.5 is the next lower target before we go for 65. Bulls need anything above 68 again.
comment: Market has now went from doing 18% upwards, going down 14% and leaving two bear gaps open. The October low is at 65.74, which will likely be hit over the next 1-2 days and if it does not hold, we will test 64 again. Bulls need to break above the 1h 20ema and then 69. I don’t think they can get much higher than that tomorrow or I’d be surprised big time. Huge difference between bulls and bears on the daily chart, is that bear bars have big tails below and market is still going down hard. Bull bars close on their highs but bulls are getting slaughtered. Could be bulls who bought the 1st of October spike, scaling in and they probably have their stops either around 65 or below the September low 63.46. Either case, it will be interesting to see the market reaction if we drop below those prices.
current market cycle: trading range (big triangle on the daily chart)
key levels: 63 - 78
bull case: Couple of ways to try to draw the bear trend line with the lows of the past 3 weeks but all are ugly. Bulls who buy this are probably scaling into positions and their stops are either around 65 or below the September low 63.46. If they can keep the market above 65 and quickly trade back above 69, there is a chance the lows can hold and that we have printed a higher low but those odds are bad after a -5% day. Best they can probably get is sideways movement between 66 and 69.
Invalidation is below 65.74.
bear case: Bears only got the market 80 ticks lower than the Globex spike, which is confirmation of this sell off. Their lower targets are the October low 65.74 and then the September low 63.46. We have an ugly bear channel with almost all bear bars having big tails below them, which shows buying pressure but bears are still selling this down hard. Which is a bit unusual I think. After such a strong bear day, follow through is expected and until bulls have clearly broken above 68 again, that price was decent to short today. For tomorrow I want to see if we have formed a tighter channel than the big one visible on the daily chart and if market is respecting an ema (currently the 1h held). I would not short below 67 but rather on pullbacks.
Invalidation is above 69.
short term: Max bearish. Can’t remember when I have last seen a 200+ tick futures gap that stayed open.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20: No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates.
current swing trade: Nope.
trade of the day: Selling around the EU open was ok once we broke below 68.3.
Buy Position (REWARD 9) opportunity on GOLD 1HOANDA:XAUUSD
As you can see
Gold is on a important level on weekly time frame.
Which could hit the last ATH and then rest for a few weeks/months.
So that now we can take a Buy Position on 1H time frame to the new ATH (Minor Extreme mentioned as EX.i).
Its Reward to Risk is about 9 to 1, But it's better to save some profits after Reward 2-3 and higher.
In other words, the more rewards we get, the less position size we should have.
Make Sure You Have a Good Partial Exit Plan.
"KEEP CALM & OBEY YOUR PLANS."
I will update Bitcoin regularly.
Happy trading..
Cheers,
Aurio
#Crypto #Trading #Bitcoin #markets #Finance #Forex #BTC CRYPTOCAP:BTC
Plan for 29th October 2024Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan in kannada.
Result analysis.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
GBP/CAD OUTLOOKIn this analysis we are focusing on 1H time frame for GBPCAD. I'm looking for a potential sell today. Here we are using supply and demand strategy with breakout and rejection concept. So let's delve deeper into these levels and potential outcomes.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and risk to reward ratio.
This is just my prediction or analysis.
#GBPCAD 1H Technical Analyze Expected Move.
SasanSeifi| NZD/USD,4-Hour Hey there, ✌ In the short-term 4-hour timeframe, we’ve observed a bearish trend starting from the 0.63700 price range. The recent breakdown below the 0.62500 level has pushed the price down to the 0.62000 zone, showing some corrective movement.
Currently, the price is trading around 0.62000.my short-term outlook leans toward further downside towards targets at 0.61700 and the demand zone below.
However, if we see signs of weakening momentum around 0.62000, there is a possibility that the market could enter a ranging phase. In such a scenario, potential pullbacks could bring the price up to levels of 0.62350, 0.62500, and 0.62750 as a corrective move before resuming the bearish trend.
To better understand the market's direction, it’s crucial to monitor price reactions in these zones.
Alternative Scenario: Price Correction Another scenario to consider is continued price correction. In this case, we expect the price to make a corrective move towards our targets. If the market enters a range and confirms the price action, we could then see positive fluctuations from the specified targets and the demand zone.
This analysis is my personal viewpoint and not financial advice. If you found this helpful, please like and comment – I’d love to hear your thoughts! Happy trading! ✌😊
Price ActionHere we are focus on 2H time frame for analysing the upcoming moves on Gold. I'm expected that today market will give us potential sell trade opportunity. so wait for price when price enter in the zone after candlestick confirmation we will execute our sell trade.
Use calculated stoploss for your trade.
Use proper risk reward ratio.
Drop Base Drop StrategyOur focus is now on a bearish trend in 2H time frame, where we will use the Drop Base Drop (DBD) strategy to execute a sell trade. This strategy aims to understand price action patterns that indicate strong selling opportunities. The first phase involves a significant price decline. When the price drops, it indicates selling pressure in the market. During this period, we should also observe increased volume, which confirms the bearish momentum.
After this initial drop, the price enters a consolidation phase, known as the base. This base lasts for some time, where the price remains range-bound. During this time, traders are reassessing the market situation. We need to ensure that there isn’t any significant resistance within the base; otherwise, the bearish trend may fail.
. Entry Point: We will open a sell position when the price breaks below the base.
. We will set take profit levels based on support zones or previous price action to maximize our profits.
.
Always ensure you have a stop loss in place to safeguard your investments.
Support And ResistanceI'm focusing on 2H time frame for gold. Now we are looking both side opportunity. Our analysis is based on support and resistance and price action, but in my opinion I'm strongly focus on buy opportunity because market trend was strongly bullish.
Always put stoploss for your trade.
Divide proper lot sizing.according to the capital.
Price Action ForeCastWe are focus on 4h time frame for analyzing the upcoming move on gold price. Now today we are look for potential buy trade opportunity, if price respect our level than after taking confirmation we will execute trade.
Must put stoploss for your trade.
Use proper risk to reward ratio.
#202443 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax xetra : 4h chart shows a triangle if you adjust the bull trend line from August. It will break out on Monday and I clearly favor the bears to break below and go for 19000. Above 19650 I am wrong and we could see the leg up to 20000. Bear confirmation is only below 19300. Until the breakout, you can either wait or play the tight range.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bullish was good but the rally is losing steam. We are in the final leg before we probably transition into a trading range before we go down. 20000 is the target for bulls and I expect them to get it one way or the other. Preferred path is a spike followed by huge profit taking. Nothing about the chart is good for bears and I would not even think about shorts, before we see some decent selling again. You never want to be early in a trade as a retail trader.
comment: Market closed 200 points lower than last week but was mostly range bound. Bull trend line and the daily 20ema are still intact and we did not get the expected breakout. Market has absolutely no more room to inside the pattern. End of September market was at 19470 so we have a month of going nowhere behind us. Was it bulls scaling into longs for 20000 or bears scaling into shorts because the upside potential is probably very limited? Very likely both. Going into next week I can’t be anything but neutral until we see one side clearly giving up. The one thing that's clear on the weekly chart for the past 12 weeks is that bears only managed to print 1 bear in between bull bars. So 3 out of 13. That is really something and we should not expect it to end until it very clearly does. Don’t try to be the first.
current market cycle: Late bull trend. Has likely ended already and we are now in a trading range.
key levels: 19000 - 20000
bull case: We learned nothing last week, other that market is in balance at 19500. Bulls need to stay above 19320 to keep the trend alive and their target is 20000. How likely is follow through buying above 20000 and another bull break above for much higher prices? I can’t think of anything less likely tbh. That obviously does not mean it can not happen. I was wrong about the top a couple of times in the past 3 years.
Invalidation is below 19300.
bear case: If you look at this chart and go “I really want to short this right now”, dm me and let’s do a remote counselling session. You are so out of touch with the market, that there has to be deeper stuff going on inside you, causing that. Nothing about this is bearish and until we see actual selling pressure, we should not waste brain capacity on bearish thoughts. 19300 is the clear target for a daily close below. Once bears have that, we will likely test down to 19000 and there we have a big decision. Market can either find new buyers there in hopes of 20000 or most bulls are done for the year and let it go. Below 19000, nothing can save this until 18000. That is the lowest I can see this go this year and even that price is very unlikely.
Invalidation is above 19400.
outlook last week:
short term: Bullish for 20000. Can see a pullback first or not. We are in the middle of the channel, which is always a bad spot. Trade momentum or long a decent pullback.
→ Last Sunday we traded 19779 and now we are at 19463. Wrong outlook. Thesis still stands. If we keep above 19300, market wants 20000.
short term: Neutral. Clear levels to break for both sides.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. Right now there is no selling pressure. I am confident that we will hit 17000 in 2025 but timing is more important than price, so let’s not waste brain capital on being bearish for now.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Adjusted the potential two legged correction
#202443 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 : Multiple ways to draw triangles and bull wedges on the daily chart. It has room to go more sideways but Friday’s reversal was so strong an market closed at the lows, that I think many bulls have enough reason to be disappointed and will exit once we break below 5800 and then we will likely see 5750 next. Above 5905 I am wrong and this will likely be the leg to 6000.
Quote from last week:
comment: Monday made the 50 points higher and that’s all bulls achieve last week. We had two pause bars on the daily chart with Tuesday and Thursday but that was not enough to put doubt in bulls minds that this rally is over. 6000 is the target and, same as dax, we will likely hit it one way or the other.
comment: Another disappointing week for the bulls. Big question now is the same as for dax and nq, was this the last before a deeper pullback or can we print 6000 before 5700? I don’t know and I am not going to pretend I do. Market is in breakout mode and the triangle has a bit more room to go. We simply need more price action because right now the market is in balance around 5870.
current market cycle: nested bull wedges and a minor triangle from past 2 weeks
key levels: 5800 - 6000
bull case: 6000 is the target. Bulls now tried many times to break above 5930 but continue to fail. Same reasoning as for dax. Can the market find more buyers above 5900 next time we get there or do we have to pull back down to 5730 first? Until we see a daily close below 5800, bulls are still favored, since we are only closing above the daily 20ema.
Invalidation is below 5800.
bear case: Bears are printing weak bear bars and can not close below the daily ema. Pure guesswork as of now, which side will give up first. We will very likely get a bigger move next week, so don’t blow your account until then. If bears move strongly below 5800, 5730 is next and there it’s big decision time if we see 6000 or not.
Invalidation is above 6050.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral between 5870 - 5930 and bullish above 5930 for 6000.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5906 and now we are at 5846. Most of the week was neutral, and we closed just 60 points lower than last week.
short term: Neutral. Bearish below 5820 for 5800, below 5800 we likely see 5730. Bullish above 5860 for 5880+ and above 5930 we will see 6000.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Removed wave count
#202443 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold: Clear two legged pullback on the 4h chart. Could be enough for the bulls to take control again and go for 2800 on Monday/Tuesday. If they fail below 2780 again, we could see a more complex pullback down to 2700. Market is clearly still max bullish and I doubt we see better selling until we hit 2800 or even 3000.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bullish it was and still is. 2800 is the next big target to hit. After 4 very strong consecutive bull bars, you can not hold a bearish thought while the market makes daily new ath. Two upper bull trend lines are still to hit, one of them leads to 2760 and the other to 2800. On the monthly chart we are in a 8 month micro channel upwards without any selling pressure. At some point market will pull back more and we will see a correction but until we see much greater selling pressure, we can not trade on hope.
comment: Minor pullback by the bears but they can not get follow through selling and that is why we can only conclude higher prices. We are trading near the top of the bull channel but we can just continue to do so until we hit 2800, which is my next upper target. I do think around 2800 we will see some bigger profit taking.
current market cycle: very strong bull trend (trade the channel until it is clearly broken)
key levels: 2650 - 2800
bull case: All arguments are on the bull side, again. 2800 is the target. Anything below 2680 would surprise me. I don’t expect much interest from buyers above 2800 though.
Invalidation is below 2680.
bear case: Bears got nothing. Again. Daily 20ema is at 2700 and the lower bull channel line is not far from that. If bears get there before 2800, that would surprise me and I do not think those two supports have a decent chance of being broken. If they somehow manage to do so, 2620 would be the next support. I do not have any bearish thoughts about this market until we see 2800 and then much more sideways movement to conclude that market found resistance.
Invalidation is above 2820.
outlook last week:
short term: Bullish for 2800+
→ Last Sunday we traded 2730 and now we are at 2754. Meh outlook. Still not 2800 but we are probably getting there next week.
short term: Bullish for 2800. Again.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22 : Very strong breakout above, again. Market currently has no ceiling. Most likely 2800 next and I do think 3000 could be a potential target if we continue. There is certainly an argument for a measured move based on the bull rally from 2018-08 to 2020-08.
current swing trade: None
chart update: None