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2024-09-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr bitcoin - 66000 could have been another lower high and we trade back down to 50000 next. Unclear since bulls got above the August high but have not yet touched the bear trend line from the ath. Anyhow, huge tails above and below the monthly bars. Big trading range on the weekly and monthly chart. Favoring the bears slightly for October. comment : Bulls printed a bullish monthly bar but they had to close it above 65000 for a big buy signal going into October. Right now I think it’s again more neutral than anything else. Big trading range for 7 months and it will end over the next 3 months. current market cycle: trading range (again a triangle on the daily chart) key levels: 60000 - 70000 bull case: Bulls fumbled the ball today imo. They had a perfect setup for higher prices and the drop down to below 64000 should not have happened. If they can get above 65000 again soon, they might pull it off for 68000 but right now I think market is in balance again. Invalidation is below 62300. bear case: Bears need prices below 62300, that’s the whole magic right now. Until they get it, it’s a trading range and you should not bet on a breakout, trying to be the first. Invalidation is above 65000. short term: Neutral as can be. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-29: Bulls got 65000+ again and 68000 is likely next. There I want to see the market reaction before I update this outlook again. For now it’s more likely to expect a continuation of the trading range 50000 - 70000. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Short 66000 once bears closed 3 consecutive bars that got bigger, below the 1h 20ema.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by priceactiontds
SMC CONCEPT / CHART PATTERNIn this analysis we are focusing on M30 time frame for GOLD. Today I'm looking for buy with the area of support zone, because market will first drop and then again rise and create a base and again market drop but this 2nd drop is not a clear drop in the shape of BOS, it is a liquidity sweep drop and once market swept this liquidity it will again rise toward upside. and also we have see inverse W pattern which known as bullish reversal chart pattern. So let's delve deeper into these levels and potential outcomes. Always use stoploss for your trade. Always use proper money management and risk to reward ratio. #XAUUSD M30 Technical Analyze Expected Move.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TradeTacticsreal
#202440 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr bitcoin: Bulls made the higher high above 65000 and they continue to be in control of the market. Next target is the big bear trend line around 68000. That trend line held 5 times now since April, I do expect it to continue to hold. If it does not, we print a new ath with very high probability. Below 64000, market turns more neutral and bulls should not let it drop below 63000 again. Quote from last week: comment: Bulls still not managed to get above 65000 and unless that changes, we are in an ascending triangle now. Trading range, ascending triangle, it does not matter, you trade them the same. Clear support and resistance, buy low and sell high until it stops working. I favor the bears to touch the lower trend line around the daily ema but as of now they are not doing enough and market has formed 4 consecutive doji’s. You don’t have to trade this. Wait for a better pattern. comment: 64500 was my clear invalidation level for many weeks now and bulls are staying above 65400 over the weekend. That’s confirmation for the bulls. Market has now formed another wedge and we could continue sideways until we hit the bull trend line around 65500. Bulls are in control of the market. current market cycle: trading range and bull trend on smaller tf key levels : 60000 - 70000 bull case: Bulls next target is 67000 and then 68000 where we could hit the bear trend line from the ath. They are in control of the market and as long as they stay above the bull trend line, that remains so. As of now, I don’t have any reason to expect bulls to be strong enough to break that bear trend line on the upcoming 6th try. This rally is far weaker than previous ones. That does not mean it can not happen. It’s just not likely. Invalidation is below 63000. bear case: I don’t know if bears want to fight for 66000 that much when they have an obvious big resistance at 68000. The last 2 weeks they did not do much in general, so don’t expect them to start now all of a sudden. Below 63000 they have more arguments but as of now, nothing. Invalidation is above 67000. outlook last week: short term: Neutral. I become a bear once bears print below 62400. Max bullish above 65000 with follow through. → Last Sunday we traded around 63400 and now we are at 65800. Ok outlook. short term: Bullish for 67000 or 68000. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-29: Bulls got 65000+ again and 68000 is likely next. There I want to see the market reaction before I update this outlook again. For now it’s more likely to expect a continuation of the trading range 50000 - 70000. current swing trade : None chart update: Removed bearish two legged correction and added the current bull wedge.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by priceactiontds
#202440 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr bitcoin: Bulls made the higher high above 65000 and they continue to be in control of the market. Next target is the big bear trend line around 68000. That trend line held 5 times now since April, I do expect it to continue to hold. If it does not, we print a new ath with very high probability. Below 64000, market turns more neutral and bulls should not let it drop below 63000 again. Quote from last week: comment: Bulls still not managed to get above 65000 and unless that changes, we are in an ascending triangle now. Trading range, ascending triangle, it does not matter, you trade them the same. Clear support and resistance, buy low and sell high until it stops working. I favor the bears to touch the lower trend line around the daily ema but as of now they are not doing enough and market has formed 4 consecutive doji’s. You don’t have to trade this. Wait for a better pattern. comment: 64500 was my clear invalidation level for many weeks now and bulls are staying above 65400 over the weekend. That’s confirmation for the bulls. Market has now formed another wedge and we could continue sideways until we hit the bull trend line around 65500. Bulls are in control of the market. current market cycle: trading range and bull trend on smaller tf key levels : 60000 - 70000 bull case: Bulls next target is 67000 and then 68000 where we could hit the bear trend line from the ath. They are in control of the market and as long as they stay above the bull trend line, that remains so. As of now, I don’t have any reason to expect bulls to be strong enough to break that bear trend line on the upcoming 6th try. This rally is far weaker than previous ones. That does not mean it can not happen. It’s just not likely. Invalidation is below 63000. bear case: I don’t know if bears want to fight for 66000 that much when they have an obvious big resistance at 68000. The last 2 weeks they did not do much in general, so don’t expect them to start now all of a sudden. Below 63000 they have more arguments but as of now, nothing. Invalidation is above 67000. outlook last week: short term: Neutral. I become a bear once bears print below 62400. Max bullish above 65000 with follow through. → Last Sunday we traded around 63400 and now we are at 65800. Ok outlook. short term: Bullish for 67000 or 68000. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-29: Bulls got 65000+ again and 68000 is likely next. There I want to see the market reaction before I update this outlook again. For now it’s more likely to expect a continuation of the trading range 50000 - 70000. current swing trade : None chart update: Removed bearish two legged correction and added the current bull wedge.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by priceactiontds
#202440 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: 50% pullback is around 68.20 and we are at 68.18. I favor the bulls that they printed a higher low major trend reversal here and 67 will hold. The pattern on the 1h looks like market is forming a round bottom which could lead to a big cup & handle pattern. If they get above 69 on Monday, I do expect 71.5 quickly after an likely a hit of the bear trend line around 72.5. Below 66.8 bears are favored for retest of 65. Quote from last week: comment: Low effort comment last week. Deal with it. Bulls have formed a small pullback bull trend from the 64 low and bears selling below 67 are still trapped. Bears have not gotten one daily bar below the prior bar during the past 8 days. No reason to expect this to change all of a sudden. comment: Bears finally came around last week and got a decent pullback to the 50% pullback from the recent bull leg. At 68.20 market is in total balance and I can’t be anything but neutral. I do think bulls are slightly favored and the 67 low could very well hold. Above 69 I favor the bulls, below 67 the bears. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 64-74 bull case: Bulls want this to be a higher low major trend reversal and 67 to hold. If they manage that, they can print up to 73 to test the bear trend line starting mid July. As of now, we are at the 50% pb and the pattern does not give you any confirmation. You have to wait for it or trade in the probability with a potentially higher reward if you take the long here. Bulls need to stay above 67 though. Invalidation is below 67. bear case: Bears printed decent bear bars Wednesday & Thursday and it’s reasonable to expect more sideways movement because they want to retest 65 or lower. Same argument for the bears as for the bulls, we are at the 50% pb and there is no confirmation for either side. Below 67 bulls could have their stops and would wait for 64/65 before longing this again. Invalidation is above 69. outlook last week: short term: Bullish near the 4h 20ema until it stops working. Take profits at new highs unless bulls show even bigger strength. → Last Sunday we traded 71 and now we are at 68.18. 4h ema buy worked on Monday but then it stopped on Wednesday. Meh outlook. short term: Neutral. Bullish above 69 and bearish below 67. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Bears channel is the main pattern right now but bulls are trying to test the upper trend line. There we will see if the bear trend is has another leg down or we move sideways. There is an argument that the spike below 69 was a trap and we continue inside a range 69 - 75/77. current swing trade: None chart update: removed broken bull trend lines
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
#202440 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold: 2700 proved to be a good spot for a pullback, which should go a bit lower than 2668. Breakout price 2630, daily 20ema or the bull trend line around 2620 are all valid targets for the bears. We will only know the strength of the pullback once we know where bears sell it again, so we can draw proper support and resistance trend lines. Right now I think bears should not let it get above 2695 or market will go more sideways instead of a deeper pullback. It’s still max bullish until bears print below the daily ema again. Quote from last week: comment: I always think about wrong outlooks much more than about right ones. In this case, was the “no interest in buying this high“ the right call here and I would come to a yes in every scenario. Of course it was wrong and market made another 50 points but risk reward was so off, not taking it was the right move for me. Anyhow. Bulls confirmed another bullish structure and we have a bull wedge inside a very bullish channel upwards. comment: Bulls hit 2700 as expected and we pulled back some. I do expect this pullback to become a great buying opportunity but I don’t know how far down bears can get it. Obvious magnets are the breakout price 2630, daily 20ema or the bull trend line around 2620. current market cycle: Bull trend key levels: 2 600 - 2710 bull case: Bulls want the pullback to be very shallow and mostly sideways. Anything above 2640 would be max bullish and an amazing buying opportunity. Not much else to tell you, since bears are having a really hard time making money in Gold. Look for longs. Invalidation is below 2600. bear case: Bears need to print some consecutive bear bars to have some arguments on their side again. They have many mentioned targets below but as of now, all of them are far aways for them. Biggest pullback last week was 50ish points and market already pulled back 43. Not sayin we can’t drop further but looking for shorts is currently a painful experience in Gold. Invalidation is above 2710. outlook last week: short term: Neutral. I won’t be buying 2646. Need a pullback. → Last Sunday we traded 2646 and now we are at 2668. Only 24 point difference to last week but wrong outlook anyhow. Bulls are insanely strong. short term: Neutral and I will only look for longs in Gold. If bears show strength, I might try a small short scalp and hope for 2630 or lower and then I wait for bulls to come around again. Making money on the long side here is the way to go. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very strong breakout above, again. Market currently has no ceiling. Most likely 2700 next and I do think 3000 could be a potential target if we continue. There is certainly an argument for a measured move based on the bull rally from 2018-08 to 2020-08. current swing trade: None chart update: None
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
#202440 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax: Perfect bullish outlook last week and we can’t be anything but bullish going into next week as well. 5 consecutive bull bars and Thu+Fri got bigger and closed almost at the high of the day. Market held above the 15m 20ema since Thursday EU open and this should be your guide for now. If we break below, 1h 20ema is the next support and below that I favor a more complex pullback with sideways to down movement. Until bears manage that, it’s max bullishness and the bubble will probably grow to 20000 before we can talk about busting again. Quote from last week: comment: Monday left no doubt where we were heading and my outlook was perfect. No one wanted to buy above 19000 and we traded 300 points down again. We are contracting inside the bull wedge and will see a breakout over the next 3 days. That can go either way so I will go neutral into next week. Both sides have reasonable arguments. I do favor the bulls slightly but need confirmation for that and this would only be above 19300/19400 and that is 600 points away. We are inside a trading range 17700 - 19000 for over 6 months now. That is as neutral as it gets. We are making higher highs but by how much? Couple of points and that’s absolutely normal inside trading ranges. And if you think “bUt YoU sAiD wE aRe iN a BuLl wEdGe”, yes. Might blow your brain out but markets can trade inside a multiple of patterns on different time frames and you have to prioritize them by the one starting on the highest tf and working yourself to the lowest tf you want to trade. comment: Big bull breakout on Friday and now the only question is, are we getting follow through and this breakout is for real or is it a bull trap? I do think both sides have reasonable arguments. Bulls have a very strong two legged move where leg 1 on the weekly chart was 11% and a measured move would bring us above 20000. Bears know that bullish breakouts above multiple bullish patterns are very rare and their chance of success small. I do favor the bulls slightly, since we left a big bull gap behind us and Friday closed at the very high. If bulls get follow through above 19500, this breakout is likely real, if we trade below 19200 again, it might go down to 19000 where the market will probably go more sideways before another impulse. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 19000 - 20000 bull case: Bulls want this monthly September bar closing on it’s high and that would be a huge buy signal. Not many bears can hold long when we close above 19300, because it’s very possible that we see 20000 next. We are once again at a place where the pain trade is up and a blow off top a likely possibility. German GDP will likely be negativ this year, so let’s print the most absurd number the market can come up with. Market always goes where the most liquidity is and it’s obviously up, likely due to short squeezing. Invalidation is below 19000. bear case: Bears need to close this giant bull gap or more traders will trade this breakout as a runaway gap to 20000. If they manage to close it, they will likely need to fight more around 19000 until the daily ema comes closer and make the market go more sideways until the next impulse comes around. The more they can stall the market, the better for them. Bulls buying here is purely on momentum and once that fades, many want to secure the profits before the bubble pops. Invalidation is above 19550. outlook last week: short term: Neutral around 18720 but expecting bulls to come around and retest 19000. Could drop to 18500/18600 first though. Anything below 18500 would surprise me big time. → Last Sunday we traded 18720 and now we are at 19473. Absolute perfect bullish outlook and I hope you listend and took the longs. short term: Neutral until bulls break strongly above 19500 with follow through. Small chance bears show strength and trade below 19200 again but some form of pullback/sideways movement is expected. Favoring the bulls to close the month above 19200. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-29 : 3 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Not so sure about 19000 being the high, since liquidity could see a bigger increase and upside could be higher. We will likely have another 10%+ correction this year and a possible year end rally. Update: Possibility of a blow-off top to 20000 is there. If we get there, it will be the short opportunity of the decade. current swing trade: None chart update: Removed potential two legged correction and added the big bull gap.
XETR:DAXLong
by priceactiontds
#202440 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-miniGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: The big bull trend line from 2022-01 + 2022-07 is valid so far and forms a broad bull channel with the April + August low. We are at the top and until bulls can not break strongly above 5800, that price is resistance. Bears not doing enough, so I am neutral until one side gains momentum. Also continues inside nested bull wedges and the smallest will break out next week. Quote from last week: comment: Bears did absolutely nothing last week except selling highs. Not a single daily bar below the previous one. Very strong buying with resulted in an obvious new ath on Thursday. Are bulls done or will we get hit 5800? Most likely we will hit it because of the obvious liquidity grab (stop running) above it. comment: Second week in a row where bears could not get a single daily bar below the previous daily low. Small pullback bull trend where we slowly grind higher. We are again at the highs of multiple patterns and betting on a breakout is a bad trade. You can literally buy any pullback and make money and until this changes, buy them. Just make sure to have tight stops at the highs. current market cycle: nested bull wedges key levels: 5750 - 5850 bull case: Not much different to last week, since we are only 30 points higher. Bulls need a very strong daily bar above 5840 to make more traders believe in a breakout above. For now it’s very low probability they get it. Bulls are in full BTFD mode on every small dip and you should join them until they start making lower lows. Invalidation is below 5770. bear case: Bears Need a lower low below the previous daily bar. Once they start getting that and make the market go sideways instead of up, they can start talking. Good for them is, that we barely move higher but we sure as s*** are not moving lower either. Once bulls stop buying the highs, a decent pullback can easily get us to the daily ema down to 5730. Invalidation is above 5840. outlook last week: short term : Neutral around 5760. No interest in buying besides small long scalps on the 5m or lower tf for 5800. Market is contracting in a tight range, best not to do anything and wait for a clear breakout. → Last Sunday we traded 5762 and now we are at 5791. Neutral was very good since we barely moved. Not doing anything here is also very decent. short term: Neutral. Next breakout will come soon. I expect Monday/Tuesday since the small bull wedge has no more room to go and we are at the upper bull trend line for the bigger one. I am not a fortune teller so I don’t know which side it will break out to. You don’t have a magic mirror either so just be prepared for the breakout and wait for it to happen. You never ever want to be the first in a trade. The odds are so stacked against you in the long run, you can not make a living being the first as a retail trader. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect at least 5300 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: None chart update: None
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
Rune: Rolling or Rune dIf you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment! Bullish Scenario: Price Holds Above $4.945: If the price holds above this interim high and continues to follow the Elliott Wave structure, it may head toward the next Fibonacci extension target of $6.50 and beyond. Bearish Scenario: Price Breaks Below $4.945: If the price drops below the $4.945 support level, it would indicate a deeper correction or possible invalidation of the current bullish count. Invalidation Below $4.565: If the price falls below $4.565, the current bullish wave count would be invalid. In conclusion: Bullish if price holds above $4.945, targeting $6.50 and higher. Bearish if price drops below $4.565, indicating further downside potential. Trade Safe. Trade Clarity.
Long
by CryptoKnee
SWING IDEA - REDINGTON LTDA potential swing trade opportunity in Redington Ltd , a leading distributor of technology products and supply chain solutions. Reasons are listed below : The stock has broken above a significant resistance zone of 180-190, and it has successfully retested this level, indicating potential upward momentum. Redington Ltd recently broke out of an ascending triangle pattern, suggesting a bullish continuation pattern. A hammer candlestick has formed on the weekly timeframe, indicating potential bullish reversal sentiment among traders. The stock found support at the 0.382 Fibonacci level, adding further confirmation to the bullish outlook. Redington Ltd has broken out of a 3-year consolidation phase, signaling a potential shift in long-term trend direction. The stock has been forming constant higher highs, indicating a consistent uptrend. Redington Ltd is currently trading above both the 50 and 200 EMA on the weekly timeframe, suggesting sustained bullish momentum. Increased trading volumes have accompanied the recent price movements, validating the strength of the breakout. Target - 242 // 288 StopLoss - weekly close below 187 DISCLAIMER - Decisions to buy, sell, hold or trade in securities, commodities and other investments involve risk and are best made based on the advice of qualified financial professionals. Any trading in securities or other investments involves a risk of substantial losses. The practice of "Day Trading" involves particularly high risks and can cause you to lose substantial sums of money. Before undertaking any trading program, you should consult a qualified financial professional. Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition and ability to bear financial risks. Under no circumstances shall we be liable for any loss or damage you or anyone else incurs as a result of any trading or investment activity that you or anyone else engages in based on any information or material you receive through TradingView or our services. @visionary.growth.insights
NSE:REDINGTONLong
by Visionary_Growth_Insights
Bearish Reversal Setup for BNBUSD - Targeting Key Support at 472Description: In this daily analysis of BNBUSD, several bearish indicators suggest a potential decline towards the $472 support level: Bearish Divergence on RSI: The RSI is showing bearish divergence, forming lower highs while the price has formed higher highs, indicating weakening momentum and a potential trend reversal. Resistance at $607 - $628: The price is currently facing strong resistance within the $607 - $628 range. This resistance zone has previously acted as a supply area, and the recent rejection indicates that sellers are in control. Double Top and Descending Triangle Formation: The recent price action suggests a potential double top formation around the $620 level, coupled with a descending triangle pattern, which are both bearish signs. Price Target at $472: If the bearish scenario plays out, we can expect the price to move towards the key support at $472, which represents a strong area of demand. Trading Plan: Entry: Consider a short entry if the price breaks below $593 or on a confirmed retest of the resistance zone. Stop-Loss: Set a stop-loss above $628 to manage risk. Target: The primary target is $472, with potential for further movement depending on market conditions. Remember to manage your risk appropriately, as market conditions can change quickly. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making trading decisions.
BINANCE:BNBUSDShort
by Ayrop-Dev
SasanSeifi|Is a Move Towards the 0.00800 Target on the Horizon?Hey there, ✌ BINANCE:BOMEUSDT In the 10-hour timeframe, as you can see, the downtrend line has been broken and the price is currently trading above the EMA60 and around the high of 0.0006700. The outlook is more bullish, and it is expected that after a minor correction and a possible pullback, or if the price breaks above 0.00680 with momentum and stabilization, it may rise towards the target of 0.00750 and the bearish order block level at 0.00800. To better understand the ongoing trend, we need to observe the price reaction at these levels. ⭕ The key support level is at 0.00600. This analysis is my personal viewpoint and not financial advice. If you found this helpful, please like and comment – I’d love to hear your thoughts! Happy trading! ✌😊
Long
by SasanSeifi
2024-09-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Yesterday I promised you the breakout on Thursday and boi did we get one today. Problem for the bulls is, that they could not trap bears and they also could not close at the highs. That means, that the directional probability up or down is once again 50/50 (neutral). Most bull channels and wedges are still valid but if bears would have given up, we would not have seen 50-75% retracements of the leg up. Still bullish until bears print lower lows. dax futures comment: Big breakout, no more guessing about the direction. Now it’s a matter of how high can it get? It’s obviously a short squeeze and a stupid rally based on nothing but bear pain. Does that help you trading? No. There are several measured move targets and the next best one I have is 19600. Does not mean we have to get there but it also does not mean we can not hit 20000. Yes. 20000. Why are you still doubting this madness? current market cycle: broad bull channel key levels: 19000 - 19600 bull case: Bulls did it again. Most of the move happened during Globex and probably left many traders out of the market and had them chasing a second leg all day, which they got. Bulls did 4 clear legs up and that should be enough for now. Bulls kept buying the 15m 20ema all day and they also closed the EU and US session at their respective highs. You have absolutely zero reason to assume the highs are in. Look for pullbacks to get long until bulls clearly have no interest in higher prices. Invalidation is below 19250. bear case: Bears are in a world of pain. Every macro schmackro indicator points to a German recession and the auto industry is giving out warnings on earnings. Nothing makes sense from a “logical” standpoint. Welcome to trading. The sooner you realize this is a giant casino, the quicker you learn to let go and don’t care about this stuff. You have to trade your strategy and manage risk. Bears have nothing going for them and would need to get below 19250 before they have any case. Can this be a giant bull trap and we reverse strongly over the next 1-5 days? Everything is possible. Can you short this? Only if you want your account to be blown. Invalidation is above 19500. short term: Max bullishness if we stay above 19250. 19600 is my next best target before we can talk about the most insane of all targets, 20000. medium-long term: Can not hold any bearish outlook on this breakout. Need to see the next pullback to calculate new targets. current swing trade: None trade of the day: The buying during Globex did not stop and the 15m 20ema held all day. Not one pullback dropped below the previous one. Just a very strong bull trend day and you can buy anywhere and make money if you hold. Sounds easier than it is, I know.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024Long
by priceactiontds
2024-09-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Yesterday I promised you the breakout on Thursday and boi did we get one today. Problem for the bulls is, that they could not trap bears and they also could not close at the highs. That means, that the directional probability up or down is once again 50/50 (neutral). Most bull channels and wedges are still valid but if bears would have given up, we would not have seen 50-75% retracements of the leg up. Still bullish until bears print lower lows. nasdaq e-mini futures comment : Current narrative is that hedge funds are continuing to sell tech. You don’t need to know that. You can see it on the chart. The bear gap got smaller but is still open while other markets making daily new ath. Given the current overall market environment, I doubt bears can keep this selling up and market below 20600. Bulls printed the 4th consecutive daily bull bar. At some point one side will give up and I heavily favor the bulls. Bulls had the strong Globex bull breakout but the selling spike from the US open was unexpected and a big surprise in strength. Bulls pulled back exactly to the 50% retracement afterwards. Key level for more upside or more downside. current market cycle: Most dominant pattern is the broad bull channel and the nested bull wedge with the August and September lows. key levels: 20000 - 21600 bull case: Bulls want the retest of 21215 and have all the arguments on their side, once they close the bear gap to 20670. We are in W3 of this current bull trend and the measured move from W1 is around 21000. If you only look at the daily chart, do you honestly go “I want to sell this”. Ofc not. You want to get long. Only below 20000 many bulls will begin to doubt the strength of this move up. Invalidation is below 20000. bear case: Bear gap is the last argument for the bears but it’s so weak, I expect a give up bar tomorrow to close this week max bullish and have a clear buy signal going into next week. Not saying bears can not have a miracle reversal like they did on 2024-07-11 or 2024-08-22. Invalidation is above 19670. short term: Max bullish if we stay above 20000. Targets above are 19700 and then 21000/21215. medium-long term: Outlook was wrong. Bulls are currently having another shot at retesting the peak bubble highs to make another one. If we get there, it could be the short of a decade opportunity. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day : Long during Globex obviously where market held above the 5m 20ema for 270 points. Selling the US open was obviously the best trade but difficult imo. Market rallied so hard, that strong of a reversal is not common.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Long
by priceactiontds
USD/JPY Under Pressure: Weak Yen and Anticipation of US GDP!USD/JPY is receiving particular attention due to the weakness of the Japanese Yen (JPY), influenced by expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will delay further rate hikes. The minutes of the BoJ’s July monetary policy meeting revealed a consensus among members on the need to remain vigilant regarding inflation risks. While some members indicated that a rate hike to 0.25% might be appropriate, others suggested a moderate adjustment to monetary support. From a macroeconomic perspective, traders are focused on the release of the annualized US GDP for the second quarter, scheduled for Thursday. The dollar's performance is being hindered by the increasing likelihood of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is about a 50% chance that the Fed will reduce rates by 75 basis points, bringing them to the 4.0-4.25% range. In terms of resistance, the level of 149.40, the highest in the past six weeks, represents a potential target for the USD/JPY rally. On the support side, the first significant level is around 144.00, which coincides with the upper boundary of the previous descending channel. A break below this level could restore the bearish bias, with the next target around 139.58, the lowest point since June 2023.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
WTI Price Outlook: Key FactorsThe price of WTI is hovering around $69.60 per barrel, remaining at relatively low levels compared to recent peaks. However, several signals suggest a potential reversal towards an upward trajectory. The reduction in U.S. crude oil inventories, reported by the EIA, was significantly larger than expected, with a drop of 4.471 million barrels compared to the forecasted 1.2 million. This signal of shrinking supply could exert upward pressure on crude oil prices. On the other hand, the effectiveness of recent economic stimulus measures adopted by China, the world's largest oil importer, remains uncertain. If these measures fail to stimulate demand, crude prices could face downward pressure. Additionally, rising tensions in the Middle East, particularly after an Israeli airstrike that killed a Hezbollah commander, increase the risk of a potential supply disruption from the region. From a technical standpoint, WTI is currently in a consolidation phase. If prices manage to break through the key resistance level around $70-72 per barrel, a bullish breakout could occur, supported by increased trading volumes.
TVC:USOILLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
2024-09-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Sideways. I won’t write much about this. Markets refuse to go lower but also not much higher. Best now is to wait for the clear breakout that will likely happen this week. I have zero bias to which direction it will go. I am not a fortune teller. Both sides have reasonable arguments, despite this being one of, if not the biggest asset bubble in history. comment: Market continues to contract. Many lines on my chart but all of them are valid until broken. Will see a bigger breakout tomorrow and or Friday. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 19000 - 19200 bull case: Bulls are somewhat very slightly favored since we are making higher highs and higher lows but barely. Not much changed since last Thursday. We are near the ath and market refuses to go down. Structure on the daily chart has potential for a breakout above. Wait for it to happen or scalp small. Invalidation is below 19000. bear case: Bears try but once market begins to stall they are out. Their only objective is to keep the market below the ath or near it. Not much more to say until they print something below 19000 again. Everything below 18800 would be amazing for the bears and would probably end this bull move. Invalidation is above 19250. short term: Neutral and waiting for the breakout. Bulls want above 19250 (roughly 19100 on xetra) and bears below 18800. Everything in between is a dead zone where market is in balance. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Buying 19000 or shorting near 19100. Bear trend line from 19195 was decent to short.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds