#202509 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: The bear breakout finally happened. First time I wrote about 75k was when we broke above 100k 3 months ago. This bear trend is now confirmed and the only question for me is do we get 1 or 2 legs more. For now my main target remains 75000 and everything below is a bonus. The 50% retracement for the whole bull market since 2022-11 is at 62k, but I highly doubt we can get there in the medium term. The big bull trend line and monthly 20ema is now my lowest medium target - around 68/70k. We have not touched the monthly 20ema since 2023-10.
current market cycle: bear trend
key levels: 70k - 95k
bull case: Bulls stopped the fall above the breakout price around 74k and they want to keep some of the bull gap open to keep the hopes of a continuation up alive. On the weekly and monthly chart it is still a bull trend until we break below the trend line currently at 65k. Bulls main objective is now to print higher lows and bounce to at least the daily ema around 92k. Trends can only be very strong, if pull-backs are shallow and many traders trapped in losing positions, so they have to cover once it’s clear that we will get nowhere near their entry price. If bulls can bounce this above 90k or even 94k, all bulls who previously bought the lows and bought them now as well, will be able to make money.
Invalidation is below 70k.
bear case: Bears showed strength by finally closing consecutive days below 90k and even dropped below 80k. Now they need to break below the breakout price at 74k and close the gap to the previous ath. Once they have accomplished that, this bull trend is much less strong and they can try to test down to the bull trend line around 68k, depending on when we get there. Last weeks selling is likely the W1 of a intermediate bear trend inside the bigger bull trend. Could it be the start of a bigger bear trend where we test down to the 50% retracement of the multi-year bull trend around 62k? Possible but irrelevant for now. Bears have to take it level by level. I have drawn two potential ways forward for this wave-series. Much less bearish would be a bigger two-legged move where the pull-back would reach up to 94k and the second leg down could stay above 75k, if it would even get there. Much more bearish alternative would be a measured move down to almost exactly the named 50% retracement at 62k. We could get there in a 5-wave series, which is also drawn on the chart. As always, price is likely much more probable than timing on the chart.
Invalidation is above 95k.
short term: Max bearish. Any pullback is a good short with a stop 97k.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-02-23: 75000 is still my biggest target for 2025. Right now nothing is moving, so my targets are useless for any trade.
Here is my year end special outlook from 2024-12-29
bear case: The pain trade is to the downside. There is no arguing about that fact. Only issue for bears is that bubbles can go on for longer than anyone’s account can handle. So selling right now with a stop 109k is reasonable but most bears want more confirmation. Below 90000 more bulls have to cover and this will accelerate down. My targets in order are the breakout retest around 75000 and if things get bad enough there, we go down to the 50% pullback and the bull trend line at 62500. There I expect the market to go sideways for more time and depending on how we get there, we can estimate new targets above or below.
current swing trade: Looking to scale into shorts around 90k with stop 97k.
chart update: Added potential bear channel and two wave-series.
Priceaction
GOLD(XAUUSD) -Weekly forecast,Technical Analysis & Trading Ideas💡 GOLD ( OANDA:XAUUSD )
💡 Daily Timeframe:
As forecasted last week, gold started its decline when it hit the red channel line.
This decline will continue, but the support area of 2789.95 to 2772.38 could trigger a rebound.
So, given the long-term uptrend, we can use this area as a long-term BUY ZONE.
💡 H4 Timeframe:
The uptrend is broken, and price is in an impulse wave.
The bearish wave is expected to continue as long as the price is below the strong resistance at 2893.51
💡 H1 Timeframe:
2879.11 support is broken now. It will act as a Resistance now!
Forecast:
Correction wave toward the Sell Zone
Another Downward Impulse wave toward Lower TPs
SL: Above 2893.51
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KAITO Holding Rising Support – Is a Big Move Coming?$KAITO/USDT is respecting a rising support line, with price bouncing multiple times from this level. The current retest suggests a potential bullish continuation, especially with the Stochastic RSI in the oversold zone, indicating a possible reversal.
If the trendline holds, we may see a strong upward move, targeting previous highs around $2.50 - $3.00. However, a break below the support could invalidate the bullish outlook.
DYOR, NFA
GOLD 2H OUTLOOK FOR TODAYThe expected move in the price of gold can be analyzed on a 2-hour time frame. As we know, the overall trend of gold remains bullish. However, recently, gold has broken it's trendline support and has also confirmed a Market Structure Shift (MSS). Therefore, today, I will be looking at the market from a sell-side perspective. I will wait for the price to reach my given key levels and form some bearish or reversal patterns, so I can get an ideal entry point. Confirmation is crucial in this process. Let's dive deeper into these levels and potential outcomes.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and proper R:R ratio.
This is my analysis for today.
#XAUUSD 2H Technical Analysis Expected Move.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 28, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In the initial rally attempt in this week's trading session, The Euro failed to reach our target of Inner Currency Rally 1.060 due to prevailing bearish sentiment. As a result, the market established a Mean Resistance target of 1.041. The current trend suggests a continuation of the downward price movement toward our designated target of Mean Support at 1.030, and there may be a retest of the Completed Outer Currency Dip at 1.020 via Key Support at 1.024. Conversely, if the anticipated downward trend does not materialize, we may witness the Eurodollar retesting the Mean Resistance level of 1.041 and subsequently target the Inner Currency Rally level of 1.060.
BTCUSD: Bearish Pattern Meets Bullish Liquidity – What’s Next?
📉 Bearish Outlook on LTF
On the 12H timeframe, a Head & Shoulders pattern is in play, with a projected target of $59,117.99 . This level aligns perfectly with the liquidity zone on the 4D chart, making it a key area of interest.
📈 Bullish Outlook on HTF
If buyers step in at this liquidity zone ($58,890.48) , BTC could see a second retest of the higher timeframe range before potentially reclaiming bullish momentum toward $146,750.87 .
🔍 Smart Money Perspective:
- A breakdown to GETTEX:59K confirms the Head & Shoulders pattern.
- A strong reversal from liquidity could turn this move into a second retest , fueling a long-term uptrend.
🎯 What’s Next?
Are we seeing a bearish continuation or the foundation for a massive reversal? Share your thoughts below!
JNJ Update | $120Been a while since I looked at NYSE:JNJ and it looks like we could see a drop towards $120 instead of going up to what was said in the old post.
Hourly/Daily price action is at a range high ($168 - $143) so I would expect a lot of selling pressure especially with how AMEX:SPY and TVC:RUT is performing right now.
Did Bitcoin Just Trick the Bears? RSI Says Yes!Bitcoin's recent price action suggests a potential bear trap, as the price sharply dipped below a key support zone before rebounding. The sudden breakdown may have triggered panic selling, but the rapid recovery and bullish divergence on RSI indicate that this could have been a false breakdown designed to shake out weak hands before a stronger upward move.
The price is now reclaiming levels above the previous demand zone, signaling a possible reversal. If Bitcoin sustains momentum and reclaims the $90,000 region, it could invalidate the bearish breakdown and push toward new highs.
Bitcoin: Wave 4 or Wave goodbye...to this variantIf you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment!
Bitcoin Wave 4?: Key Levels & Critical Juncture
Bitcoin’s recent price action has put traders on edge, as we continue to push into the deeper reaches of the Wave 4 territory. The market rejected 99-100K, aligning with expectations, but it took a deeper path than my bullish outlook preferred. While I caught the correct direction, this move is now at a critical juncture where bulls need to step up—this is their last chance to hold this count as a probability and regain momentum, IMO.
Losing Ground on This Count
A clean break above 99K never materialized, reinforcing bearish sentiment and increasing the likelihood of further downside. The bulls have struggled to gain control, and without a strong push, this count risks full invalidation. At this stage, I remain cautious, knowing that sticking to weak counts is a losing game.
Key Levels to Watch
🔹 86.6K – Immediate obstacle for bulls to reclaim 📈
🔹 92K – The real test; a reclaim here would suggest bullish intent 🎯
🔹 75K – Next major support if bulls fail to hold structure ⚡
What Comes Next?
If this variant is going to stay on the probability list, it has to prove itself now. It was cautiously at the top of the list, but has broken the key levels and ideal price action I was looking for to keep it there.
Bitcoin is at a make-or-break moment—will it find strength, or are we heading for a deeper correction? Let me know your thoughts in the comments. 🚀
Trade safe, trade smart, trade clarity.
GBPUSD Daily, H4,H1 Forecasts, Technical Analysis & Trading Idea💡 Daily Timeframe:
FX:GBPUSD has been in a Range Bound recently. It touched and rejected from 1.2700 major resistance today.
A peak is formed in daily chart at 1.27150 on 02/26/2025, so more losses to support(s) 1.25107, 1.23609, 1.22589 and minimum to Major Support (1.20981) is expected.
💡 Four-hour Timeframe:
The uptrend is broken, and price is in an impulse wave.
The bearish wave is expected to continue as long as the price is below the strong resistance at 1.2715
💡 One-hour Timeframe:
1.2640 support is broken now. It will act as a Resistance now!
A strong bearish divergence has also formed in the RSI.
Forecast:
Correction wave toward the Sell Zone
Another Downward Impulse wave toward Lower TPs
SL: Above 1.2715
2025-02-27 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bears showed strength once again and we have made new lows. Now comes the most important part tomorrow. They need a very strong monthly close below 20600 to close below the January low. Bulls want any close closer to 21000.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 21000 - 21700
bull case: Bulls see this as the climactic ending on the 4h tf after 3 legs down. They now want to close the month more neutral around 21000 and most likely above. They probably are beginning to scale into longs again since 6 consecutive red days are so unusual, that the odds of a decent pull-back are good. We are also around 300 points away from the big bull trend line and there is absolutely no reason why this should break on the next hit. If we stay above 20500, I favor the bulls for a bounce up to 20800 or 21000 before I turn full bear again.
Invalidation is below 20500.
bear case: Bears are overdoing it and they could get squeezed tomorrow. Bounces this week were between 200-400 points and that would bring us to 21000 where I expect another strong try down by the bears. If we even get there. Bears want to keep this max bearish and continue with the 15m 20ema being resistance. Today’s selling was strong enough that we could potentially reach 20000 tomorrow but it’s far. We have two bear channels now. One you can see on my 4h chart and then another on the 15m or 1h chart. The smaller one has to stay intact if bears want another big bear day tomorrow.
Invalidation is above 21100.
short term: Need a bounce to sell this. Monthly close around 20000 is possible but bulls have been buying new lows all week and we should hit at least 20800 or even 21k. But there I do think we will close this month at the lows and hopefully below 20500.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-23: Neutral since we are in a 4-5 month trading range. Still leaning heavily bearish for this year but for now it’s sideways until we get consecutive daily closes below 20000.
trade of the day: Selling on the open was strong enough to expect the gap close down to 21200. We did more but 21000 was expected to be huge support. The second leg down started slow and accelerated. Where should you have shorted on the second leg? Market failed exactly at the 15m 20ema and after the third consecutive and increasing in size - bear bar, shorts were necessary. Could you have known the extend of the sell-off? Never while it’s happening but you should keep runners and hope to catch such a 400 point move down.
EURUSD -Weekly forecast, Technical Analysis & Trading Ideas💡 Daily Timeframe:
EURUSD has been in a Range Bound recently. It touched and reject from 1.0528 major resistance today.
A peak is formed in daily chart at 1.05285 on 02/26/2025, so more losses to support(s) 1.03570, 1.02920 and minimum to Major Support (1.01779) is expected.
💡 Four-hour Timeframe:
The uptrend is broken, and price is in an impulse wave.
The bearish wave is expected to continue as long as the price is below the strong resistance at 1.0528
A strong bearish divergence has also formed in the RSI.
💡 One-hour Timeframe:
1.0457 support is broken now. It will act as a Resistance now!
Forecast:
1- Correction wave toward the Sell Zone
2- Another Downward Impulse wave toward Lower TPs
SL: Above 1.0528
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Gold Price ActionHello Traders,
I have marked a key zone on the 4-hour chart, highlighting liquidity areas that need to be grabbed. Based on this setup, there is a strong possibility that the price will rise.
Looking at today's economic forecast, the USD appears slightly weaker due to higher-than-expected unemployment claims. Additionally, I have identified divergence, which further supports a potential bullish move.
You can consider entering a long position, but always ensure proper risk management. Stay disciplined, avoid over-leveraging, and don’t let greed take over.
Wishing you all the best and happy trading!
Thank you.
USDCHF -Weekly forecast, Technical Analysis & Trading IdeasMidterm forecast:
0.89147 is a major support, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be uptrend.
Technical analysis:
The ascending flag taking shape suggests we will soon see another leg higher.
A trough is formed in daily chart at 0.89115 on 02/25/2025, so more gains to resistance(s) 0.90367, 0.91497, 0.92218 and more heights is expected.
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2025-02-26 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Very important day tomorrow. Bulls made a new high and higher lows. A breakout above would certainly open the path to the ath-retest 23000. Bulls have defended the bull trend line so far and if bears just step aside enough, we could print a big green day. Bears need lower lows below 22280 to keep this neutral and continue sideways. They would also then have a chance of breaking below the bull trend line and testing down to 22000.
Important this day was. Bulls followed-through as expected but came short of 22900 and a new ath above 23000. Again we have clear invalidation prices for both sides. Above 22750 bulls could try again and continue inside the current bull channel. Below 22550 the bull channel is broken and 22500 has to hold or we flush to 22400. Below 400 is 22k and I do think there is a decent chance we could close February below 22000. Be prepared for some EU trade war news and this could become a risk-off event tomorrow.
current market cycle: bull trend until trend line is broken (daily close below 22300)
key levels: 22100 - 23000
bull case: Was this a lower high major trend reversal? Bulls keep the bull channel alive if they stay above 22550ish. If they do, they remain in control and we could try another run at 22900 or a new ath. Biggest problem for them sits in the White House and we can expect some trade war related news tomorrow, which could be a big trigger for another sell-off.
Invalidation is below 22550.
bear case: Bears have a good setup to crash this down. Double tops on multiple time frames and a news event that could be a huge risk-off event. I have given invalidation prices for both sides, set up notifications and trade accordingly.
Invalidation is above 22750.
short term: Neutral until prices break above or below my given targets. I dream of a February close below 22000.
medium-long term from 2024-02-26: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. Daily close below 22000 is needed to turn this neutral and end the bull trend-.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Long above 22600 as given yesterday. Was good for 280 points.
GBP/USD: Bullish Short-Term Move Towards Liquidity at 1.2700📊 Market Structure & Key Levels
GBP/USD is currently trading around 1.2650, sitting at a key demand zone while maintaining a bullish structure on the 4H timeframe. The pair has been showing signs of accumulation and could be setting up for a liquidity grab towards 1.2700 - 1.2708 before any potential reaction.
🔍 Trade Setup: Bullish Bias Towards Liquidity Pool
BUY Entry Zone: 1.2640 - 1.2650
Target 1 (TP1): 1.2690 (Minor Liquidity Grab)
Target 2 (TP2): 1.2700 - 1.2708 (Institutional Resistance)
Stop Loss (SL): 1.2625 (Below Demand Zone & Fibonacci Support)
📈 Why Take This Trade?
✔️ Bullish Structure Intact – Price is above key moving averages (6 EMA, 24 EMA, 72 EMA), and the Supertrend remains bullish.
✔️ Institutional Liquidity at 1.2700+ – Major market players have orders sitting above this level, making it a prime target.
✔️ Demand Zone & Fibonacci Support – Price is reacting from 1.2640-1.2650, aligning with Fibonacci retracement and historical demand zones.
✔️ Order Flow Confirms Strength – Market depth shows strong buy-side interest at current levels, supporting a push higher.
📰 High-Impact News to Watch
⚠️ Fed Chair Powell Testimony (Feb 27, 2025) – Powell's remarks on inflation and future rate hikes could bring volatility to GBP/USD. Any hints of a hawkish Fed stance may strengthen the USD, leading to potential pullbacks.
⚠️ UK GDP Data (Feb 29, 2025) – A weaker-than-expected print could weigh on GBP, while a positive surprise might fuel further upside.
📌 Final Thoughts: Trade Smart & Manage Risk!
I’m keeping a close eye on the reaction at 1.2700-1.2708. Bulls have the upper hand, and liquidity above should get taken. Let’s see how price action unfolds!
🔥 What’s your bias? Drop your thoughts in the comments! 🔥
USD/JPY: Liquidity Grab Below Weekly LowThe chart shows that the price has grabbed liquidity below the weekly low, potentially triggering a bullish reaction. Analyzing the current USD/JPY situation, recent economic data highlights bearish pressure on the dollar due to declining consumer confidence in the U.S. and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, while the yen is strengthening on the back of more solid economic indicators. Technically, the price has rejected a key demand zone and remains below the psychological threshold of 150.00, which acts as a crucial resistance. If the price confirms a bullish structure on lower timeframes, we could see an upward move towards the 152.00-152.50 area, aligning with a supply zone and moving average confluence. However, a close below recent lows could invalidate this outlook, paving the way for a further drop toward the next support at 146.00.
The descending channel on btc is wider than originally thought Now that we have had a bounce from yesterday’s big red candle I was able to find two new parallell trendlines that essentially widened the descending channel price has been consolidating in. We need price to get back above the red line soon however for that is a double top neckline, a double top with a full breakdown target of 70k, so we definitely wanna avoid triggering that breakdown by getting price action back above the red line ASAP. *not financial advice*
BTCUSD TODAY ANALYSISThis is my analysis for BTCUSD, where I am currently analyzing the 4-hour time frame. At the moment, BTCUSD's price is consolidating on the daily time frame. Based on my analysis, I will be looking at a bearish market today. Once the price reaches my key level, I will observe its behavior and rejection confirmation before pulling the trigger on my trade.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and proper R:R ratio.
This is just my analysis or prediction. Let's see what happens.
#BTCUSD 4H Technical Analyze Expected Move.
2025-02-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Very important day tomorrow. Bulls made a new high and higher lows. A breakout above would certainly open the path to the ath-retest 23000. Bulls have defended the bull trend line so far and if bears just step aside enough, we could print a big green day. Bears need lower lows below 22280 to keep this neutral and continue sideways. They would also then have a chance of breaking below the bull trend line and testing down to 22000.
current market cycle: bull trend until trend line is broken (daily close below 22300)
key levels: 22100 - 23000
bull case: Bulls give up above 22600 and we sold off on every touch since Thursday. If bulls want to retest 23000, they need to break strongly above 22600 and trap bears who are selling that price for 4 days now. The daily chart still looks bullish enough that bulls remain in control. We are above the daily ema, above the bull trend line and we still have a bullish gap from 22000 - 22300. Plan for tomorrow is to either get a strong breakout above 22600 to buy or look for longs around 22400 and continue with the higher lows.
Invalidation is below 22300.
bear case: Bears need lower lows again or bulls will become more aggressive for a ath retest. If 22600 continues as resistance we will likely go down to 22400 and there we will likely get a decision tomorrow. If we print higher lows again, the next touch of 22600 could get the breakout. Below 22400 the bull trend line could have become weak enough that we might do lower lows again and test down to 22200 or 22170 (last weeks low). Bearish plan is to wait and see if 22600 is still resistance and join the bears down to 22400 but keep a tight stop. I won’t bet on lower lows.
Invalidation is above 22650.
short term: Neutral. Clear plan given, mark the prices and set up alarms.
medium-long term from 2024-02-16: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. For now it’s still only up. 23000 likely next.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Selling 22600 was the trade that worked since Thursday. Buying the EU open was also decent since 22300 has been support since Globex open on Monday.
ETH Update | ICT Distribution Setup - $2.2k as PlannedMy latest posts on ETH was to see a falling wedge breakout to the upside when price was trading around $3.5k
At the same time I was shorting the pivot points inside the wedge
Chart patterns are fine to use here and there but in all realness Market Cycles overpower when using true price action analysis.
I had a hunch price would fall lower at the time but was trying to force a bullish bias which is bad, and could have let the positions run for longer.
Now that we're at a major support level I would like to see some type of accumulation pattern/consolidation before we make a call for $3k
Market Horizon:
Looking to see a market-wide bounce in the months of April, possible pullback/selloff in May. For now we wait🧘♂️