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BTC - Bearish Pressure Ahead!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈 As per our latest analysis, BTC has rejected the $50,000 - $52,000 support zone and has been trading higher since then. However... BTC is currently approaching the upper bound of the red channel. Thus, for the bulls to remain in control, a break above the upper red trendline is needed. In this case, a movement towards the $70,000 resistance would be expected. Meanwhile, BTC would be bearish medium-term and can still reject the red trendline for one more leg down. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
1
Gold Price Analysis September 25Fundamental Analysis Gold rose to a fresh record high of $2,670 an ounce on Wednesday after a surprise drop in U.S. consumer confidence data on Tuesday raised expectations of more aggressive policy easing and deeper interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Lower interest rates are good for gold because they reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets, making it more attractive to investors. The People's Bank of China's biggest stimulus move since the Covid pandemic announced on Tuesday, which included steep cuts in borrowing costs as part of a package of measures to revive the slumping economy, also supported gold prices. Escalating tensions in the Middle East after Israel resumed bombing Hezbollah targets in Lebanon further boosted safe-haven flows into the yellow metal. Technical Analysis Gold is sideways in a narrow range and waiting for clear buying and selling forces at the support level of 2650 to see how the price reacts when the US session enters. If it cannot break through 2650, a new ATH can be established today. Pay attention to the resistance zones at the top of 2670-2680 and see the price reaction in this zone to SELL. Important support is at the 2640 zone Trading signals BUY GOLD zone 2650 SL 2645 BUY GOLD zone 2640 SL 2635 SELL GOLD zone 2670 SL 2675 SELL GOLD zone 2680 SL 2685
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCEToday, I'm focusing on a potential sell opportunity in XAU/USD. The recent price action indicates that gold may be facing resistance around the $2640 level, where it has struggled to maintain upward momentum. Additionally, with rising interest rates and a strengthening U.S. dollar, market sentiment seems to be shifting towards bearish for gold. Technical indicators, such as the MACD, are showing signs of divergence, suggesting a possible downward trend. If the price breaks below key support levels around $2624, it could trigger further selling pressure. I'm prepared to enter a short position if these conditions align, looking to capitalize on a potential decline in gold prices. Always use stoploss for your trade. # GOLD 4H Technical Analysis Expected Move.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by TradeTacticsreal
2024-09-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - More continuation of the expected. Bears trying to get lower with some spikes but enough bulls are happy to buy it. We will have a breakout either tomorrow or Thursday because one side will give up. As of now I favor the bulls for another leg up to kill the last shorts. (does not apply to DJI for example, where we basically make new ATH daily) sp500 e-mini futures comment: 1h chart tells the story. Bulls buy every dip but are not finding enough buyers above 5790 to push for 5800. One side will give up soon and I expect it to be the bears. This is the last push bulls have inside the smallest wedge and it’s either breakout above or below tomorrow. Don’t over analyze 50 point trading ranges. Clear support and resistance and you have to buy in the lower third and sell in the upper one until it clearly does not work anymore. current market cycle: trading range (bull wedge) key levels: 5730 - 5800 bull case: Bulls are poking at 5800. Couple more times and bears will probably give up. If we get above 5800, I don’t expect market to stop there. Might as well do a spike to 5850 or so. Look for longs around the 4h ema which is currently at 5768. Every touch has been bought for two weeks. Invalidation is below 5750. bear case: Bears need a lower low below 5750. They manage to print some spikes but no follow through what so ever. I don’t think they will fight 5800 much longer. We have almost daily bad news and market refuses to sell. Get the hint. Probably a gigantic short squeeze coming before we meaningfully correct before the year end rally. Invalidation is above 5810. short term: Buy low sell high inside given levels but breakout will most likely happen tomorrow. Can wait for it and hop along. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Buying 5775 and selling 5790. Sometimes it’s not rocket science but still hard to do mentally.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
2024-09-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Gold - Bull channel from my weekly update was not steep enough. 2700 next. Only look for longs. Can’t stop, won’t stop. comment: Gold broke above my drawn patterns, again. Unreal strength but not unexpected. In my weekly I wrote you should only look for longs. How high can this get? 2700 is almost a given at this point and big round numbers are always decent for a pullback or some stalling. Any long would need a stop 2645 as of now. Can wait for pullbacks to long this. last 10 days has 1 bear bar. Don’t try to be smarter than the market and short it. Although it’s becoming climactic and a pullback is expected, it can go further, so don’t pick tops. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 2645 - 2700 bull case: Bulls in full control. New low would be below 2645 and that’s far away. I look for pullbacks near ema to long it. Invalidation is below 2540. bear case: Bears want a pullback but will probably have to wait for 2700 now. Best they currently get is to stall the market and make it go sideways. I expect this around 2700 next. There is absolutely no reason to look for shorts on this. Invalidation is above 2710. short term: Max bullishness. medium-long term: Very strong breakout above, again. Market currently has no ceiling. Most likely 2700 next and I do think 3000 could be a potential target if we continue. There is certainly an argument for a measured move based on the bull rally from 2018-08 to 2020-08. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying 2650. There were 4 chances where market clearly showed support around that price. Don’t long the first touch of such levels but above the second is good.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by priceactiontds
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE / PRICE ACTIONIn this analysis we are focusing on 30M time frame for XAUUSD. As we know that gold has manage to create a new all time high and the market structure was strongly bullish. So here I'm using simple support and resistance concept along with price action to find out the key levels. And also we are using Fib. Retracement tool to finding a retracement key levels. If market price break the consolidation zone toward upside then we look for buy. But If market price break the consolidation zone toward downside then we look for sell. Any step can be taken after confirmation. Let's delve deeper into these levels and potential outcomes. Always use stoploss for your trade. Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio. # GOLD 30M Technical Analyze Expected Move.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TradeTacticsreal
Gold price analysis September 24Fundamental Analysis Gold prices fell after hitting a fresh all-time high around the $2,640 region on Tuesday and slid to the lower end of its daily range heading into the European session. Rising US Treasury yields helped revive demand for the US Dollar (USD), prompting some profit-taking around the commodity amid a mildly overbought condition on the daily chart. However, any meaningful corrective decline in Gold prices appears to be limited after the Federal Reserve (Fed) stepped up bets on more aggressive policy easing. Additionally, persistent geopolitical risks, US political uncertainty and a gloomy global economic outlook will support the safe-haven XAU/USD as traders look to Fed Governor Michelle Bowman’s speech for fresh impetus. Technical Analysis Gold retreats from the 2640 peak. Technically, wave 5 of the Elliot wave has completed and the ABC correction wave is forming towards 2604. If the 2624 zone where gold is currently located is broken, we will get the 2603 level when the US session jumps in. If the European session price cannot break 2625, we will still wait and prioritize the sell side when retesting the 2640 peak. The 2593-2595 zone is considered a good buy zone. Upper resistance: 2640 - 2645 - 2650 - 2658 Support: 2615 - 2610 - 2605 - 2600 - 2688 - 2657 Sell 2654 - 2656. Stoploss 2659 Sell 2640-2642. Stoploss 2445 Canh BUY scalp 2615 Canh BUY 2604 - 2606. Stoploss 2600 Canh BUY 2593-2595. Stoploss 2590
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
2
2024-09-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - 230 ticks surprise downside by the bears but bulls prevented the ugly daily bar, which leaves us with a neutral bear bar. Market closed above the daily ema and right at the bull trend line that was broken earlier. Selling was strong enough to expect a second leg but anything below 69 would surprise me. comment: Finally some decent selling again. Bears need to keep it below 71 to trap many late bulls buying too high. I have a measured move target around 67.2 but for now I doubt we get that low. Selling today was strong enough to expect a second leg. Given the fast move upwards, I would not look to buy this dip and wait until market has found a better bottom than 69.5. current market cycle: trading range inside big broad bear channel from the daily chart key levels: 69.5 - 72 bull case : Bulls bought the lows but need to get above 70.60 to stay inside the bull channel. They would also need to close the current bear gap to 70.8ish to have better arguments to trade back up. They prevented the worst by closing above the daily ema and not letting the bear bar looking too good so market is pretty neutral going into tomorrow. Above 70.7 I favor the bulls for 71 or 72 again. Invalidation is below 69.5. bear case: Bears want a second leg down to 68 or lower. If they can generate strong follow through tomorrow, many bulls could cover their longs and the selling might accelerate. For now it’s low probability and more likely is more sideways movement and some oscillating around the daily ema. Invalidation is above 70.7. short term: Neutral between 70-71, bearish below 69.5 and bullish above 70.7. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-08: Bears broke below multi month support and want a retest of 64.46 or lower. Right now the selling is a bit too steep to be sustainable. When we get a more complex pullback and form a decent channel, I will write a longer update here. Can this bear trend be the start of a bigger where we see Oil below 50$ again? I have absolutely no idea but the current daily chart can not not lead to that conclusion. current swing trade: None trade of the day : I was in denial of the strength of the selling. 2m ema was not touched and that could have been the trade of the month. Bar 41+42 formed a double top with the bars 2-4 and bar 43 was strong enough to flip market always in short. Very bad trading on my end to not take it.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
2024-09-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Talk about pinning at a specific price. Most markets moved inside tight trading ranges between last week’s close and today’s open price. Was it bulls scaling into longs because we will rip higher (accumulation) or bears selling the highs because we crater soon (distribution)? Yes. We have learned nothing today and you can move on now. dax futures comment: Dax was the anomaly today and surprised me with the strong close. Market refused to go down while most others chopped in tight ranges. The 50% pb from Friday’s selling is 19030 and we closed at 19000. Anything above 19100 would be very bullish but I favor the bears to retest at least 18900 tomorrow. That outlook is somewhat low probability until bears can break outside of the current bull channel on the 15m tf. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18800 - 19200 bull case: Market refused to go down after the EU open reversal and we had a spike and channel bull trend day. As long as the bull channel is alive, bulls are fine. Their targets above are 19100 and then 19200 obviously. Given the atrocious pmi data earlier today, this rally feels off and is likely a squeeze. Does that help with trading? No. Can go much higher than anyone expects but right now anything above 19100 would surprise me, again. Invalidation is below 18970. bear case: Bears tried a couple of times today but were not strong enough to even retest the open price after we went above 18980 during the EU session. We are near the 50% pb and it’s possible that they come around tomorrow and try to get down to 18800 but as of now they don’t have good arguments. Their first target is to make the market go sideways and break out of the bull channel. Then they need a strong close below 19000. On the daily chart nothing changed after today. Invalidation is above 19100. short term: Neutral and bearish once the bull channel is broken for at least a retest of 18900. Bullish above 19100 for 19200 or higher. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Buying 18850 was profitable on Friday and so today. Bar 29 was a perfect signal bar and 30 the entry bar. Stop 1 tick below the signal bar and that was good for 200+ points. I was too busy looking for shorts that I did not take many good long setups. Bad trading on my part.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024Short
by priceactiontds
#202439 - priceactiontds - weekly updateGood Day and I hope you are well. bitcoin Quote from last week: comment: Doing the weekly chart this week. Clear contraction visible and there is no magic to see here. I won’t make up stuff where there is none. Market is clearly confused where it wants to go and no side has an advantage. The triangle will break out soon again and I can only see btc falling below 49000 if the broader markets weaken considerably. comment : Bulls still not managed to get above 65000 and unless that changes, we are in an ascending triangle now. Trading range, ascending triangle, it does not matter, you trade them the same. Clear support and resistance, buy low and sell high until it stops working. I favor the bears to touch the lower trend line around the daily ema but as of now they are not doing enough and market has formed 4 consecutive doji’s. You don’t have to trade this. Wait for a better pattern. current market cycle: trading range / ascending triangle key levels: 49000 - 65000 bull case: Bulls need prices above 64500. That has not changed since last week. If they fail again, market will likely test down below 55000 again. If they could get it, market is free to trade above 68000 to test the bear trend line from the ath. Invalidation is below 62400. bear case: Bears want a pullback to test the lower bull channel trend line and daily ema around 61000 where I expect more buyers than sellers to appear. Market then probably has to move more sideways before we can get a breakout below the bull channel. This is a clear trading range for 2 months and odds favor the bears to stay below 65000 and get a pullback. Don’t over analyze 4 consecutive doji’s. Look at a higher time frame and get a sense of what the market is trying to do. Right now it’s trying higher again but failing. It can only go on for so long until one side give’s up. Invalidation is above 64500. outlook last week: short term: Neutral. Under 60000 I slightly favor the bears to trade down to 55000 but need to see better selling than on Saturday/Sunday. → Last Sunday we traded around 59800 and now we are at 63400. Meh outlook. I changed it on Monday since bulls printed a strong bull bar above the pullback. short term: Neutral. I become a bear once bears print below 62400. Max bullish above 65000 with follow through. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-08: If bears can close the bull gap for good, we could see 40000 this year. If not, more likely we will see 65000+ again. Right now we are in a 2 month trading range. current swing trade: None chart update: Added the bull channel, wave count and possible two legged correction.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by priceactiontds
EURUSD Analysis after the FED, BOE and BOJ!The analysis of EUR/USD suggests a relatively strong position for the pair, currently stable around 1.1160, with a bullish outlook supported by both technical and fundamental factors. Technical Factors: Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI indicator on the 4-hour chart is near 70, indicating the pair is in overbought territory, suggesting that a technical pullback or correction could be imminent in the short term. However, the overall bullish trend remains intact for now. Support and Resistance Levels: Resistance: The first resistance level is at 1.1200, followed by 1.1275, which represents the July 18, 2023 high. Support: The first support level is at 1.1135, followed by 1.1100. Fundamental Factors: US Dollar: The potential weakness of the US Dollar is a key factor. The likelihood of the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates in 2024 could contribute to a decline in the Dollar, increasing bullish pressure on the EUR/USD pair. Although the data on initial jobless claims (219,000 vs. 231,000) temporarily supported the Dollar, the prevailing risk sentiment in the markets reintroduced bearish pressure on the Dollar later in the week. European Central Bank (ECB): Comments from ECB members indicate that no significant monetary policy changes are expected until December. However, ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech could have market impacts. If she opens the door to a rate cut as early as October, it could weaken the Euro. However, at this time, such a possibility seems unlikely.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
TRENDLINE MODULEIn this analysis we are focus on 15M time frame for GOLD. I'm looking for a potential buy today. We know that overall market trend was Bullish. If price break 2595 toward upside than after confirmation we will execute our buy trade. So let's delve deeper into these levels and potential outcomes. Always use stoploss for your trade. Always use proper money management and risk to reward ratio. This is just my prediction or analysis. # XAUUSD 15M Technical Analyze Expected Move.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TradeTacticsreal
#202439 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: Daily bars looking weak but it does not matter, it’s a small pullback bull trend and it’s going higher. Not a single bar went below the previous so we are max bullish. 72 is very likely get hit on Monday and the first bigger target is 73. There market decides if this bigger bear trend is still alive or we have found a credible bottom at 64. Quote from last week: comment: Selling the 4h ema on Tuesday was as perfect as it gets. Bulls bought the lows again and 65 held. Neutral around 68 because both sides have reasonable arguments. But also this: Given the max bearish sentiment that everyone and their dog is writing about on x, I favor the bulls to trap late bears much more than I expect continued selling but as long as bears are below the daily ema, they are in control of the market. comment: Low effort comment last week. Deal with it. Bulls have formed a small pullback bull trend from the 64 low and bears selling below 67 are still trapped. Bears have not gotten one daily bar below the prior bar during the past 8 days. No reason to expect this to change all of a sudden. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 64-74 bull case: 4h tf. Look at it. Every touch is bought. Until that stops, only look for longs. Bulls are only making higher lows and higher highs. Their next target is the obvious bear trend line around 73.5/73.7. Even if bears come around and print something below 70, bulls would most likely buy it for a retest of 71.5 or 72. Invalidation is below 68.5. bear case: Bears who sold below 67 were trapped and market just keeps going higher. Bears gave up completely on Thursday and Friday was most likely bulls taking profits and opex things why we stalled. Until bears print something below 69, they have no arguments as of now. Sure we are still inside the bear channel but the upper trend line is still almost 400 ticks away. Best they can probably get is sideways movement 70-72. Invalidation is above 72. outlook last week: short term: Neutral around 68. I have alerts and wait for one side to clearly take control again. Slightly favoring the bulls if they stay above 68 and get momentum going again. → Last Sunday we traded 68.65 and now we are at 71. Bad outlook. Bulls took over completely. I still think it was a surprise since market did not even retest anything below 67. Would give the outlook again. short term: Bullish near the 4h 20ema until it stops working. Take profits at new highs unless bulls show even bigger strength. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Bears channel is the main pattern right now but bulls are trying to test the upper trend line. There we will see if the bear trend is has another leg down or we move sideways. There is an argument that the spike below 69 was a trap and we continue inside a range 69 - 75/77. current swing trade: None chart update: Added bull trend lines from the 4h tf.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
#202439 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold: Bulls got a clean breakout but they need follow through on Monday/Tuesday. The current channel fit’s nicely but we only know market is respecting it when we see a pullback. If this breakout is strong, bulls would not let the market fall below 2600 again. A weaker trend would pull back to the daily ema around 2600 before continuing. As long as we hold above the daily ema there is a very good chance we will see 2700 next. Small chance this trend is accelerating and breaking above the drawn channel and we would see 3 strong legs up which could lead to 2800. Quote from last week: comment: Finally the breakout above and the 2600 print. All bullish targets are now met for me so no interest in buying this high. I think the odds that bulls break above the wedge and start a new bull rally are very low and much more likely is a trap over the next 1-5 days and then a reversal down to at least 2540. That’s all I have to write about this right now. comment: I always think about wrong outlooks much more than about right ones. In this case, was the “no interest in buying this high“ the right call here and I would come to a yes in every scenario. Of course it was wrong and market made another 50 points but risk reward was so off, not taking it was the right move for me. Anyhow. Bulls confirmed another bullish structure and we have a bull wedge inside a very bullish channel upwards. current market cycle: Bull trend key levels: 2570 - 2700 bull case : Bulls had the fastest and most shallow two legged pullback there is on Tuesday/Wednesday and continued with max bullishness for 2650. By now every bear has given up and we will truly find out how high this can go over the next months. As of now my preferred pattern is the bull channel and since we are at the highs, bulls would need another strong bar like Friday to break above it. Can they get it? Absolutely. Am I betting on it? No. Invalidation is below 2570. bear case: No idea where and how strong they come around. Will most likely be more bulls taking profits rather than strong selling. Lower bull trend line is 50 points lower and I doubt we hit it on Monday. Buying 2640 is a bad trade and bears know it but I rather wait and see where we go. On the 1h tf we have not traded below it since Thursday’s Globex session. Currently very hard for bears to make money so make your life easier and look for longs. Invalidation is above 2660. outlook last week: short term: Neutral. I need to see bear strength before selling this. No interest in longs above 2600. → Last Sunday we traded 2610 and now we are at 2646. Meh outlook because bulls were much stronger and broke above again but I also advised against shorts until bears come around. They did not. short term: Neutral. I won’t be buying 2646. Need a pullback. medium-long term: Very strong breakout above, again. Market currently has no ceiling. Most likely 2700 next and I do think 3000 could be a potential target if we continue. There is certainly an argument for a measured move based on the bull rally from 2018-08 to 2020-08. current swing trade: None. chart update: Added bull wedge.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by priceactiontds
#202439 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: Similar structure to dax. Nested bull wedges inside a big broad bull channel. The current bullish structure has a potential to lead to much much higher prices but I favor the trading range continuation more. The bull wedge will break over the next 2-3 days and we will likely have an answer on the next direction. Bulls need a strong break above 5800 and bears below 5670. Quote from last week: comment: Favored the bears last week and wanted to load on shorts on this pullback but bears were practically gone, so no shorts for me. Lower highs and higher lows. Triangle on the daily chart until broken. Not much difference to the other indexes. Above 5670 bulls are favored for 5700+ and maybe a new ath and bears would need a strong reversal below 5650 for bulls to cover their longs again. Similar to 2024-09-03 where bears printed a huge bearish engulfing bar, that is that they would need here as well. comment: Bears did absolutely nothing last week except selling highs. Not a single daily bar below the previous one. Very strong buying with resulted in an obvious new ath on Thursday. Are bulls done or will we get hit 5800? Most likely we will hit it because of the obvious liquidity grab (stop running) above it. current market cycle: nested bull wedges key levels: 5670 - 5850 bull case: We are trading around the ath. Will the market find more buyers to push this even higher? We are inside nested bullish patterns and bulls are favored but buying near the ath without a better pullback is not the best trade you can do right now. On lower tf you can find reasonable longs but not on the daily. I’d rather wait for a breakout of the smaller wedge and see where the market wants to go. I do think bulls can print 5800 and some next week. Most outrages target I have on sp500 is 6144 but I will only address this once bulls close a weekly bar above 5800. Invalidation is below 5670. bear case: Bears want the breakout below the wedge and test the daily ema around previous support 5670. If they are strong, they could hit 5600 next week but as of now the bears have nothing to support this but hope. Best they can probably get is some sideways around 5760. Invalidation is above 5810. outlook last week: short term: Neutral between 5400 - 5670. I slightly favor the bears when they print a good bear bar on Monday because of the triangle. Above 5670 I scalp long and see how high we can get. → Last Sunday we traded 5629 and now we are at 5762. I leaned bearish but only if… If never came true since bears could not get a lower low all week. My read that above 5670 it’s a long, was good for 110. short term: Neutral around 5760. No interest in buying besides small long scalps on the 5m or lower tf for 5800. Market is contracting in a tight range, best not to do anything and wait for a clear breakout. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect at least 5300 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: None chart update: Only bullish pattern left and added an outrages measured move target.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds