27.03.25 Morning ForecastPairs on Watch -
FX:NZDCAD
OANDA:XAGUSD
FX:NZDUSD
A short overview of the instruments I am looking at for today, multi-timeframe analysis down to what I will be looking at for an entry. Enjoy!
Priceaction
VOE LONGAs you can clearly see the VOESTALPINE AG stock has found support at a key order block, aligning closely with the 50% Fibonacci retracement — a typical entry point for smart money. Since then, price action has stabilized and is starting to push higher. The declining short interest ratio suggests bearish pressure is easing, while the rising volume delta points to increasing demand. This confluence could signal accumulation and a potential continuation to the upside. Watching for further confirmation and a clean break above recent highs.
#SmartMoney #OrderBlock #VolumeDelta #Fibonacci50 #ShortSqueeze #AccumulationPhase #TradingStrategy #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketStructure #BullishSetup #PriceAction #Orderflow #SwingTrading #TradingViewIdeas
2025-03-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Strong bears appeared again, volume picked up and we are down 565 points from the high. Big bull trap and these moves tend to get follow-through. Next big support is 22700 and then 22500 and I favor the lower price tomorrow, anything else would surprise me. The big spending bill is priced in and market could not make a new ath after 3 tries now. Downside has much more room than the upside.
current market cycle: Clear trading range now and market is neutral around 23000. Also the bull trend line on the daily chart is broken
key levels: 22500 - 23750
bull case: Bulls tried the early breakout and it looked promising. Bears surprised me as well and the move was violent enough to go for 500 points down. Bulls have nothing until they recover 23200. If bulls were hopeful for much higher prices, we would have seen them by now. The big bull trend line from 20300 is likely broken now and I do think market has turned fully neutral again. Best bulls can now hope for is to stay above 22500 and continue sideways.
Invalidation is below 22400.
bear case: Bears need a strong follow-through day tomorrow or might find themselves inside a bigger expanding triangle where we could go up to 23500+ again. Today’s selling was a big surprise and these moves trap traders and can have good momentum for a couple of sessions. Bears want the obvious lows of this trading range tested and maybe run some stops below 22500. They absolutely need to close below 22800 tomorrow to confirm the bull trend line break.
Invalidation is above 23200.
short term: Bearish. Bears need to stay below 23100 to keep the strong momentum alive. I’d like to look for shorts near the 1h 20ema. Anything above 23100 would make me neutral and above 23200 I would sit on hands and wait.
medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Germany takes on huge amount of new debt. Dax is rallying hard and broke above multi-year bull trends. This buying is as real as it gets, as unlikely as it is. Market is as expensive as it was during the .com bubble but here we are and marking is pointing up. Clear bull channel and until it’s broken, I can not pound my chest and scream for lower prices. Price is truth. Is the selling around 23000 strong enough that we could form a top? Yes. We have wild 1000 point swings in both directions. Look at the weekly chart. Last time we had this volatility was 2024-07 and volume then was still much lower. We are seeing a shift from US equities to European ones and until market closes consecutive daily bars below 22000, we can’t expecting anything but sideways to up movement.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying the breakout before EU open upwards was reasonable but you had to be quick to change your mind about shorting it since the move down was violent.
ZCash (ZEC)- Weekly Forecast,Technical Analysis & Trading IdeasMidterm forecast:
While the price is above the support 24.41, beginning of uptrend is expected.
We make sure when the resistance at 45.33 breaks.
If the support at 24.41 is broken, the short-term forecast -beginning of uptrend- will be invalid.
COINBASE:ZECUSD
Technical analysis:
A trough is formed in daily chart at 29.20 on 03/21/2025, so more gains to resistance(s) 41.10 and maximum to Major Resistance (45.33) is expected.
Take Profits:
35.60
41.10
45.33
50.14
56.49
67.07
79.42
90.06
100.00
117.07
135.00
170.00
216.50
305.00
370.55
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NAS100 Price ActionHey traders!
Looking at the current market structure, we can see that the price failed to make a new higher high , which is often the first sign of a potential trend reversal. This was followed by a break of two key structure levels, confirming a shift in momentum from bullish to bearish.
Interestingly, a supply zone was formed during this shift, but price didn’t even retest it — instead, it dropped right after its creation, showing strong bearish pressure. There's also an internal candle (IFC) marking the transition point.
With this kind of price action, it’s likely that the market is heading toward the next demand zone below. This could present a solid short opportunity, but always remember to manage your risk wisely and wait for clean confirmations.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Rising Wedge BreakdownMarket Structure & Analysis:
Rising Wedge Formation: Price has been moving within a rising wedge pattern, which is typically a bearish reversal pattern.
Bearish Breakdown Expected: BTC is testing the lower boundary of the wedge, indicating a potential breakdown.
Resistance Zone:
$89,649 – Key resistance level preventing further upside.
$88,336 – Local resistance that price failed to sustain above.
Support Levels:
$86,852 - $85,335 – Intermediate support range.
$80,402 – Main target for a bearish move.
$76,725 – Secondary support in case of further decline.
Trading Plan:
Sell Setup:
Wait for confirmation of a breakdown below the wedge.
Enter short if price closes below $86,852 with volume confirmation.
Stop Loss: Above $88,336 to avoid false breakouts.
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: $84,474 (first support level).
TP2: $80,402 (main target).
TP3: $76,725 (extended bearish target).
Risk Factors:
If BTC finds strong support at $86,852, a bounce could invalidate the bearish setup.
Macro events (ETF approvals, institutional buy-ins, Fed rate decisions) may impact price action.
EUR/JPY Triple Bottom Breakout – Bullish SetupThis chart represents the EUR/JPY currency pair on the daily timeframe. It highlights a Triple Bottom pattern, a bullish reversal formation that signals a potential upward trend after testing strong support multiple times.
1. Chart Pattern Analysis – Triple Bottom Formation
The Triple Bottom is a classic reversal pattern that forms after a downtrend and consists of three distinct lows at nearly the same level. This indicates that sellers attempted to push the price lower but failed three times, suggesting that buying pressure is increasing.
Bottom 1 (August 2024): The price reached a low near 150.344, forming the first support zone.
Bottom 2 (September 2024): The price dropped again to the same support level but bounced back, indicating strong demand.
Bottom 3 (March 2025): The price retested the support for the third time and rebounded, confirming the pattern.
💡 Key Takeaway: The repeated failure to break below the support level suggests that sellers are losing control, and buyers are preparing for a strong move up.
2. Support & Resistance Levels
Understanding support and resistance levels is crucial for identifying entry and exit points:
Support Level (150.344 - 150.125): This zone has acted as a strong demand area where price consistently bounced back.
Resistance Level (167.500 - 170.000): This is the neckline of the Triple Bottom pattern. A breakout above this level confirms the bullish trend.
If the price breaks above the resistance level, it will trigger buying momentum and open the doors for further upside.
3. Trading Strategy & Price Targets
✅ Entry Criteria
The ideal buy entry is after the price breaks above the resistance level (~167.500 - 170.000) with strong bullish momentum and increased volume.
Wait for a daily candle close above the resistance level to confirm the breakout.
🎯 Target Levels (Take Profit - TP)
TP1 (173.001) – First profit-taking level, as the price may encounter some resistance.
TP2 (179.266) – Final bullish target if the breakout holds strong.
📉 Stop Loss (Risk Management)
Stop Loss (SL): Below 150.125, just below the previous support level. This minimizes losses if the price fails to break out.
Risk-to-Reward Ratio: This setup offers a high risk-reward ratio, making it a favorable trade.
4. Market Psychology & Confirmation Signals
The Triple Bottom indicates a strong shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish.
Confirmation signals to watch for:
✅ Bullish breakout above resistance
✅ Increase in trading volume
✅ Formation of bullish candlesticks (e.g., Engulfing, Marubozu, or Breakout Retest Confirmation)
5. Summary & Final Thoughts
🔹 The Triple Bottom pattern signals a strong reversal with clear upside potential.
🔹 The breakout above resistance (~167.500 - 170.000) will confirm a bullish trend.
🔹 Entry: Buy after breakout confirmation with volume support.
🔹 TP1: 173.001, TP2: 179.266
🔹 SL: Below 150.125 to protect capital.
🚀 Conclusion : This setup presents an excellent long opportunity with a well-defined risk-reward strategy. If the breakout holds, EUR/JPY could see a strong uptrend in the coming weeks.
EUR/GBP Chart Analysis – Double Bottom Reversal & Breakout Setup1. Market Structure & Context
The EUR/GBP daily chart presents a well-defined double bottom reversal pattern, indicating a potential trend shift from a prolonged downtrend to an uptrend.
The pair has been in a bearish phase, as reflected by the descending trendline.
However, price action suggests a possible trend reversal, as buyers are stepping in near a key demand zone.
A successful neckline breakout would confirm the bullish reversal, potentially leading to significant upside movement.
2. Key Chart Patterns & Technical Levels
A. Double Bottom Formation (Bullish Reversal Pattern)
The double bottom is a powerful reversal pattern, often signaling the end of a downtrend. It consists of two similar low points, forming a "W" shape.
Bottom 1: The first low was established around 0.8200 - 0.8250, where buyers initially stepped in to push prices higher.
Bottom 2: Price retested this demand zone, but sellers failed to push it lower, confirming a strong support level.
Bullish Significance: The inability of sellers to break below the support zone suggests the exhaustion of selling pressure and increasing buy-side interest.
B. Neckline Resistance & Potential Breakout Zone
The neckline resistance is drawn around 0.8450 - 0.8500, a key level where previous price rallies were rejected.
A breakout above this zone, ideally with strong bullish volume, would validate the double bottom pattern and trigger a bullish breakout trade.
C. Descending Trendline Breakout Attempt
The long-term downtrend resistance (trendline) has been holding since mid-2024.
Price is currently testing this trendline; a clear breakout and retest would add further confidence to the bullish bias.
3. Trade Setup & Execution Plan
A. Entry Strategy
There are two possible entry strategies, depending on risk appetite:
Aggressive Entry: Buy immediately upon a breakout above 0.8500, anticipating a strong rally.
Conservative Entry: Wait for a breakout + retest of the neckline before entering, ensuring confirmation.
B. Stop Loss & Risk Management
Stop Loss (SL): Placed below the recent swing low at 0.82029.
This level acts as the last line of defense for bulls; if price drops below it, the bullish thesis is invalidated.
C. Take Profit (TP) Targets
TP1: 0.86122 (first resistance zone, a previous swing high).
TP2: 0.87284 (higher resistance level, next supply zone).
These levels serve as potential profit-taking areas where sellers may re-enter the market.
4. Additional Technical Confluences Supporting Bullish Bias
✔ Key Support Zone Holding Strong – The price has bounced twice from the demand zone (0.8200 - 0.8250), confirming strong buyer interest.
✔ Volume Confirmation Needed – A breakout with high volume increases the probability of sustained bullish momentum.
✔ RSI & Momentum Indicators – If RSI crosses above 50, it would further confirm bullish momentum, supporting the breakout trade.
✔ Favorable Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR) – A well-defined stop loss & take profit strategy ensures an optimal trade setup.
5. Summary & Final Trading Plan
Current Market Bias: Bullish if neckline breaks (Double Bottom Confirmation).
Entry Confirmation: Look for a breakout above 0.8500 with strong volume.
Profit Targets:
TP1: 0.8612
TP2: 0.8728
Stop-Loss Level: Below 0.8202 to protect against fake breakouts.
🚀 Final Tip for Traders:
Monitor price action & volume closely. A breakout without volume may lead to a false move. Confirmation with bullish momentum is essential for a high-probability trade setup.
EUR/USD Triple Bottom Reversal | Bullish Breakout SetupChart Overview
This is a EUR/USD 1-hour chart showing a classic Triple Bottom Reversal Pattern, a strong bullish reversal signal. The price has tested a key support level multiple times, forming three distinct bottoms, indicating that sellers are losing momentum while buyers are stepping in.
This setup suggests an upcoming breakout, with well-defined entry, take profit, and stop-loss levels to capitalize on the potential upward move.
Technical Breakdown
1. Support & Resistance Zones
Support Zone (Highlighted in Beige)
The price has tested this zone multiple times without breaking below, confirming strong buying interest.
Each time the price touched this level, it rebounded, indicating accumulation by buyers.
Resistance Zone (Highlighted in Beige)
The price previously reversed from this level, making it a key area to watch for a breakout.
A confirmed breakout above this resistance could trigger strong upward momentum.
2. Triple Bottom Formation
A Triple Bottom is a strong bullish reversal pattern. It consists of:
Bottom 1: First rejection from support.
Bottom 2: A retest of support with buyers defending the level.
Bottom 3: The final touch before an upward move, confirming the pattern.
This pattern signals that selling pressure is diminishing and buyers are preparing for a strong breakout.
3. Bullish Reversal & Breakout Zone
A breakout above the neckline resistance (around 1.0843) will confirm the pattern.
Traders should wait for a confirmed candle close above the resistance before entering a long position.
A retest of the breakout zone can provide an additional entry opportunity.
Trade Setup & Key Levels
🔹 Entry Strategy
Aggressive Entry: Enter at the breakout level (above 1.0843) with volume confirmation.
Conservative Entry: Wait for a breakout retest before entering long.
🎯 Take Profit Targets
TP1: 1.08868 (First resistance zone)
TP2: 1.09642 (Major resistance zone, strong price reaction expected)
❌ Stop Loss Placement
Stop Loss: Below 1.06786, under the support zone.
This ensures that if the price breaks below the key level, the trade is invalidated.
Market Sentiment & Expected Move
If the price breaks the resistance → Expect a strong bullish move toward TP1 and TP2.
If the price fails to break out → It may consolidate further or retest support.
Watch for increased volume on the breakout to confirm strength.
📌 Final Thoughts
This is a high-probability bullish setup based on a well-formed Triple Bottom Reversal pattern. Traders should monitor price action near the breakout zone and manage risk effectively with proper stop-loss placement.
NZDUSD - H4, H1 Forecast - Technical Analysis & Trading IdeasTechnical analysis is on the chart!
No description needed!
OANDA:NZDUSD
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Silver (XAG/USD) – Rising Wedge Breakdown & Retest📌 Overview of the Chart
The chart illustrates a classic Rising Wedge pattern that has broken down, signaling a potential bearish continuation. The price action respected technical structures, including support and resistance levels, trendlines, and key psychological zones.
The breakdown of the rising wedge led to a sharp decline, followed by a retest of the previous support as resistance, confirming further downside momentum. Traders analyzing this setup can identify clear entry points, stop-loss placements, and target objectives based on price action behavior.
🔹 1️⃣ Understanding the Rising Wedge Pattern
A Rising Wedge is a bearish pattern that forms when price moves upward within converging trendlines. It indicates that buying momentum is slowing, and a potential reversal or breakdown is imminent.
✔ Characteristics of the Rising Wedge on This Chart:
📈 Higher Highs and Higher Lows: The price was trending upwards, but the narrowing structure indicated exhaustion.
📊 Decreasing Momentum: Volume likely started declining as the price approached resistance.
📉 Bearish Breakdown: Price broke below the lower trendline, confirming the pattern’s bearish nature.
🔻 What Happened Next?
The price dropped sharply after the wedge breakdown.
A retest of the broken trendline acted as a confirmation of resistance.
The downtrend continued, targeting a lower support level.
🔹 2️⃣ Key Support & Resistance Levels
🔵 Major Resistance – 34.27 USD (All-Time High & Supply Zone)
This level served as a strong supply zone, rejecting multiple bullish attempts.
Price struggled to break this level, leading to a sell-off.
The stop-loss for short trades is placed above this zone to minimize risk.
🟠 Support Level – 32.80 USD (Previous Support Turned Resistance)
This was a key support zone before the wedge breakdown.
Once broken, price retested this level and faced rejection, confirming a trend shift.
⚫ Trendline Support (Now Broken)
The lower support trendline was a crucial guide for bulls.
Once price broke below, it signaled strong bearish control.
A retest of the trendline was unsuccessful, confirming a bearish continuation.
🟢 Target Zone – 31.93 USD (Projected Breakdown Target)
The measured move target of the rising wedge aligns around 31.93 USD.
If selling pressure continues, price may reach this level.
🔹 3️⃣ Trading Strategy – Short Setup & Execution
This setup provides a high-probability short trade based on the pattern breakdown.
📉 Short (Sell) Entry Criteria:
✅ Entry Zone: After the price broke below the wedge and retested the trendline (~33.80 USD).
✅ Confirmation:
Bearish candlestick formations (Doji, Engulfing, or Pin Bars).
Increased volume on bearish moves.
🚫 Stop-Loss Placement:
🔹 Above the resistance level (34.27 USD) – If price breaks above this, the setup is invalid.
🔹 Reasoning: Protects against unexpected bullish reversals.
🎯 Take-Profit Target:
🔻 Target Price: 31.93 USD (based on measured move projection).
🔻 Risk-Reward Ratio: At least 2:1 (adjusted based on volatility).
🔹 4️⃣ Market Psychology & Price Action Analysis
Understanding trader sentiment is crucial:
📌 Before the Breakdown:
Bulls were in control, pushing price higher.
However, momentum slowed down, forming the rising wedge.
Traders who identified this pattern anticipated a potential trend reversal.
📌 After the Breakdown:
Sellers overpowered buyers, causing a rapid break of structure.
The price retested the previous support as resistance, confirming further downside.
The market sentiment shifted to bearish, aligning with technical confirmations.
🔹 5️⃣ Alternative Scenarios & Risk Factors
🔄 Bullish Reversal (Invalidation of Bearish Bias)
🚨 If price reclaims 34.00-34.27 USD, it invalidates the bearish setup.
📌 A break above this level could trigger a new bullish wave, targeting higher highs.
⚠️ Key Risk Factors:
Unexpected macroeconomic events (e.g., Fed policy, inflation data, geopolitical tensions).
Strong bullish rejection at lower support zones (~32.00 USD).
Volume divergence (if selling volume dries up, bears may lose control).
📢 Conclusion: High-Probability Bearish Trade with Clear Risk Management
This rising wedge breakdown provides a strong short setup, with technical confirmations and price structure supporting further downside movement.
📉 Bearish Bias Until 31.93 USD
A breakdown retest suggests sellers remain in control.
Price is expected to continue lower unless bulls regain 34.00+ levels.
🔍 Key Trading Question:
Will Silver (XAG/USD) continue to its measured target of 31.93 USD, or will bulls defend key support and push prices higher?
Let’s discuss! 🚀👇
JPY/USD Technical Analysis – Bullish Breakout from Falling WedgeIntroduction
The JPY/USD chart showcases a classic falling wedge pattern, a strong bullish reversal signal. This pattern is characterized by converging downward-sloping trendlines, indicating a weakening bearish momentum. Eventually, buyers stepped in, leading to a breakout to the upside. This analysis breaks down key elements, including support and resistance zones, trendlines, trading strategy, and risk management.
1. Breakdown of the Chart Pattern
A. The Falling Wedge Formation (Bullish Reversal Pattern)
A falling wedge is a bullish technical pattern that forms when the price consolidates within two downward-sloping trendlines that converge over time. This signals that selling pressure is decreasing and a reversal may be near.
Downtrend Structure: The price was previously in a consistent downtrend, making lower highs and lower lows, which formed the wedge.
Breakout Confirmation: Once the price broke above the upper trendline, the pattern was confirmed, indicating the start of a bullish move.
Retest Possibility: Often, after a breakout, the price retests the upper trendline before continuing higher. If it holds, it strengthens the bullish outlook.
B. Key Levels Identified in the Chart
1. Support Zone (Buying Area)
The price found strong support in the 0.006291 – 0.006500 region.
Buyers stepped in, preventing the price from dropping further.
This support level coincides with the bottom of the wedge, further validating its importance.
2. Resistance Zone (Profit Target)
The 0.007100 – 0.007200 area is a major resistance level where sellers have previously dominated.
If the price reaches this level and consolidates, traders will look for either a breakout or a rejection.
A break above 0.007200 would indicate further bullish continuation.
3. Trendlines & Curve Formation
A curved trendline in the chart suggests a gradual transition from bearish to bullish momentum.
The dotted ascending trendline now acts as dynamic support, helping the price sustain its bullish move.
2. Trading Strategy & Risk Management
A. Entry Strategies
Traders have two primary ways to enter this trade:
Aggressive Entry:
Enter immediately after the breakout of the wedge.
Higher risk but captures early momentum.
Conservative Entry:
Wait for a pullback to the trendline before entering.
Lower risk as it confirms trend continuation.
B. Take Profit Targets
Primary Target: 0.007117 (Resistance level from previous highs).
Extended Target: 0.007200 (Next significant resistance).
C. Stop Loss Placement
Below the recent swing low at 0.006291 to protect against false breakouts.
Ensures a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
3. Market Sentiment & Confirmation Signals
✅ Bullish Confirmation
Breakout from the falling wedge
Price holding above the trendline
Higher highs and higher lows formation
Increased buying volume
⚠️ Bearish Risks & Invalidations
A break below the trendline would indicate weak momentum.
If the price fails to hold support, it could reverse downward.
Low volume on the breakout could signal a fake breakout.
4. Final Thoughts
This setup provides a high-probability trading opportunity following the breakout from a falling wedge pattern. The risk-to-reward ratio is favorable, making it an ideal setup for trend-following traders. However, patience is key—waiting for a successful retest before entering can minimize risks. If the price maintains momentum, we could see a rally toward the 0.007100 – 0.007200 resistance zone in the coming weeks. 🚀
BTC/USD Rising Wedge – Bearish Breakdown Ahead?Introduction: Understanding the Market Structure
This Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 4-hour chart presents a technical setup with a mix of bullish and bearish formations. The analysis focuses on key support and resistance zones, trendlines, and chart patterns to determine the next possible move.
🔍 The key takeaway? BTC has formed a Rising Wedge, a bearish reversal pattern, signaling potential downside unless a breakout invalidates the setup.
1. Market Structure & Current Trend Analysis
📌 Market in Curve Formation – The Accumulation Phase
Before the recent rally, Bitcoin was in a downtrend, making lower lows and lower highs, suggesting a period of price weakness.
However, price found strong support at around $77,600 - $80,000, forming a curved bottom structure—an early signal of an accumulation phase.
This bottoming pattern transitioned into a bullish uptrend, leading to the formation of a rising wedge.
🔹 Key Observations:
✔ Accumulation near $77,600 created a base for buyers.
✔ The gradual recovery curve suggests a shift from bearish to bullish momentum.
✔ Bitcoin later formed higher lows, confirming a temporary uptrend.
⚠ Shift in Momentum – The Rising Wedge Appears
The price rallied from the support zone but started forming a Rising Wedge pattern, which is typically a bearish signal.
A rising wedge indicates that although buyers are pushing prices up, they are losing momentum.
The narrowing price range suggests that sellers are entering at higher levels, weakening bullish strength.
2. Key Technical Levels to Watch
🔵 Resistance Zone ($92,000 - $94,957)
The shaded area near $92,000 - $94,957 is a major resistance level, where BTC previously failed to sustain a breakout.
This supply zone has been tested multiple times, reinforcing its strength.
The Stop Loss for short positions is placed above $94,957—any breakout above this level would invalidate the bearish setup.
🟠 Support Zone ($77,600 - $80,000)
The strong demand zone between $77,600 - $80,000 aligns with previous support levels.
If the rising wedge breaks down, this is the first major price target where BTC could find support.
A strong breakdown below $77,600 could lead to further declines toward $75,000 or lower.
3. The Rising Wedge Pattern – Bearish Warning!
🔍 What is a Rising Wedge?
A Rising Wedge is a bearish reversal pattern that forms during an uptrend when price moves within two converging trendlines.
It indicates that buyers are losing strength, and sellers are preparing to take control.
Once the lower trendline breaks, it confirms bearish momentum, leading to a price drop.
📝 Current BTC/USD Rising Wedge Analysis:
BTC has formed higher highs and higher lows, but the price range is narrowing.
The lower trendline is critical—a breakdown below this level could trigger a sharp decline.
The bearish target aligns with the support zone near $77,600.
4. Trading Plan – Possible Scenarios
📉 Bearish Breakdown Scenario (High Probability)
✅ Entry: Short BTC if the price breaks below the rising wedge (~$86,000 - $85,500).
✅ Stop Loss: Above $94,957 to protect against invalidation.
✅ Take Profit Target: $77,600 - $80,000 (first support level).
✅ Extended Target: If BTC drops below $77,600, watch for $75,000 - $72,000.
✅ Risk-Reward Ratio: Ideally 1:3 or higher for optimal trade management.
📈 Bullish Breakout Scenario (Low Probability but Possible!)
If BTC breaks and closes above $94,957, the bearish setup becomes invalid.
A confirmed breakout above resistance could push BTC towards $98,000 - $100,000.
Traders should wait for volume confirmation before entering long positions.
5. Risk Management & Final Thoughts
⚠ Risk Factors to Consider:
If BTC breaks the wedge with low volume, the move might be a false breakdown.
Macroeconomic events, such as interest rate decisions, can influence price behavior.
Watch for bullish divergences in indicators like RSI or MACD before shorting aggressively.
🔎 Conclusion:
The Rising Wedge pattern suggests a bearish reversal—a breakdown could send BTC toward $77,600.
Traders should wait for confirmation before entering trades.
If BTC breaks above $94,957, a bullish continuation could push it toward $100,000.
🔥 Bearish Bias Until Breakdown Confirmation!
Would you like an indicator-based analysis (e.g., RSI, MACD, or Moving Averages)? 🚀
Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis – Triangle Breakout & Bullish Overview of the Chart
This chart presents a daily timeframe (1D) analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) and highlights a well-defined bullish trend supported by a breakout from a triangle pattern. The overall price action suggests a strong uptrend continuation, with clearly marked support and resistance levels, trendlines, and potential trade setups.
Gold has been consistently respecting key technical levels, forming higher highs and higher lows, which is a classic indicator of a strong bullish market. Traders can use this analysis to identify entry points, stop-loss levels, and profit targets for a strategic trading approach.
Key Technical Components in the Chart
1. Triangle Pattern Formation – The Setup for Breakout
One of the most crucial formations in this chart is the triangle pattern, which acts as a continuation pattern.
The triangle pattern (highlighted in green) represents a period of consolidation where price action was squeezing between higher lows and lower highs before a breakout occurred.
This pattern suggests that buyers and sellers were in equilibrium, building up momentum before gold made a decisive move to the upside.
The breakout above the upper boundary of the triangle confirms the bullish continuation, leading to a strong rally.
📌 Technical Significance: Triangle patterns are a reliable technical structure used by traders to anticipate breakouts. The breakout direction (upward in this case) determines the next trend phase.
2. Trendline Analysis – Defining Market Structure
The dashed black trendline represents the primary ascending trendline, which has been respected multiple times, indicating that the market remains in an uptrend.
Several minor support levels (highlighted in blue) have acted as strong demand zones, preventing price breakdowns and helping sustain the bullish momentum.
A major support zone (highlighted in beige at $2,300-$2,400) serves as the base of the uptrend, where price action historically reversed strongly, indicating heavy institutional buying.
📌 Technical Significance: As long as the price remains above these support levels, the uptrend remains intact.
3. Breakout & Price Action Structure – Momentum Confirmation
The breakout from the triangle pattern signaled the beginning of a new bullish impulse wave, and the price action structure confirms this move.
Higher Highs & Higher Lows: The black zig-zag pattern represents a strong bullish structure where each retracement finds support before continuing higher.
Price Movement Post-Breakout:
After breaking above the triangle’s resistance, gold started forming higher highs at an accelerated pace.
Minor pullbacks are bouncing off key support levels, providing re-entry opportunities for traders.
📌 Technical Significance: A breakout followed by sustained higher highs and strong buying pressure is a key bullish signal.
Trading Plan & Strategy
1. Entry Strategy – Ideal Buying Zones
Buy on Pullbacks:
Enter near minor support levels to take advantage of retracements.
This improves the risk-to-reward ratio and reduces exposure to sudden reversals.
Confirmation Signals:
Look for bullish candlestick patterns (bullish engulfing, pin bars, hammer candles).
Increased trading volume on bullish moves supports trend continuation.
2. Stop-Loss & Risk Management
📍 Stop-Loss: $2,661
Placed below the most recent minor support level to protect against downside risk.
If price breaks below this level, it may signal a trend shift or deeper correction.
📍 Why this Stop-Loss Level?
It ensures a tight risk control while allowing room for natural price fluctuations.
3. Take-Profit & Target Projection
📍 Target Price: $3,170
The measured move projection from the triangle breakout suggests a target near $3,170, which aligns with historical resistance.
If the price approaches $3,100-$3,170, traders should monitor for potential reversals or further breakouts.
4. Key Factors Supporting the Bullish Bias
✅ Uptrend Structure: The market is making higher highs and higher lows, which is a textbook sign of bullish momentum.
✅ Breakout Confirmation: The price has broken out of the triangle pattern and is sustaining higher levels.
✅ Support Levels Holding: Each pullback is being absorbed by buyers at well-defined support zones.
✅ Momentum & Volume: Increased volume and strong buying pressure indicate that the bullish trend is likely to continue.
5. Risk Management & Market Conditions
Market Sentiment:
If gold continues to hold above the support zones, further upside momentum is likely.
If price starts breaking below key support levels, it may signal a trend reversal or deeper correction.
Geopolitical & Economic Factors:
Gold prices are often affected by inflation data, interest rate changes, and global uncertainties.
Traders should monitor economic news that could impact gold’s trend.
Conclusion – A High-Probability Trade Setup
This analysis confirms that gold (XAU/USD) is in a strong bullish uptrend following a successful triangle breakout.
🚀 Trade Setup Summary:
✅ Entry: Buy on pullbacks at minor support levels
✅ Stop-Loss: $2,661 (Below support)
✅ Target Price: $3,170 (Next resistance level)
✅ Risk-Reward Ratio: Favorable setup with strong trend confirmation
🔹 Final Verdict: As long as gold remains above the minor support levels, the bullish bias remains strong, making this a high-probability long trade setup.
Would you like to add any additional indicators (RSI, MACD) for confirmation? 📈
26.03.25 Morning ForecastPairs on Watch -
OANDA:XAGUSD
FX:EURUSD
FX:NZDUSD
A short overview of the instruments I am looking at for today, multi-timeframe analysis down to what I will be looking at for an entry. Enjoy!
AUDCAD | Reoccurring FractalsWe're looking at 3 complete fractals and the fourth one being the current one. Same phase as the last, a bit of sideways trading/consolidation then aggressive buying breaking out to the upside.
Price action has been trending upwards with HHs and HLs and we're currently at a Lower High bouncing off the lower trendline below.
Would be ideal to look for long positions only for this setup as bulls are looking stronger from this view.
~300pips going into the 3rd wave.
2025-03-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaq
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Volume is garbage but we are moving higher. Likely more due to strong bears stepping aside rather then strong bulls buying. 20700 is the 50% and we will likely get there over the next 1-2 days. I do think bears have to prevent the bulls from getting a 4th consecutive daily bull bar or more bulls could join and more bears cover. My thesis is that we are in W2 and forming a bear channel, so I would greatly prefer it if market stays below 20700. 20900 would be the breakout retest and is the next logical target above.
current market cycle: strong bear trend but currently in W2 (above 20700 that thesis drops to a 50/50 chance)
key levels: 19600 - 20700
bull case: Bulls have a bull trend from Globex open yesterday and keeping the market above the 1h 20ema. Right now longs with stop 20360 are reasonable since we are making higher lows. 20700 is the obvious target and then the breakout-retest 20900. As long as bulls keep the lower bull trend line valid, they are good. The upper wedge line is likely to get broken, so I don’t think it’s bigger resistance. Market is doing his best to keep most traders out of this move up, since most of the gains are made in the pre- and after market (obviously not futures).
Invalidation is below 20360.
bear case: Bears don’t have much right now. The bear trend is obviously still alive and market is likely forming a bear channel but since we are going up in a very tight channel, bulls are in control on the lower time frames. Bears need to either print a strong rejection tomorrow before or after we hit 20700. I’d prefer before, then another leg up to the 50% and then another strong rejection down to 20000 but it’s a rough guess. First target for bears is a break below 20300 again and going sideways.
short term: Neutral 20500 and bullish only closer to the 1h 20ema. 20700 is my bull target and there I expect the battle for either continuation of the big bear trend or transition into a big trading range.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-03-16: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We don’t know if we have printed the W1 of the new bear trend or repeat the pattern from 2024, where we sold of very strong to reverse even more strongly and make new all time highs. Market needs a bounce and around 20000/20500 we will see the real battle for the next weeks.
trade of the day: Buying 20300 early in EU session or any pullback close to the 1h 20ema. Market is so strong since open of the week that moving far below the 1h 20ema was very low probability.
EUR/JPY Breakdown: Falling Wedge Breakout & Bullish SetupThe EUR/JPY 4-hour chart is presenting a well-structured price action setup, featuring a falling wedge breakout, a strong bullish trendline, and key resistance and support levels. This detailed analysis will walk through each aspect of the chart to provide a professional trading perspective.
1. Market Context & Price Action Overview
At the beginning of the chart, EUR/JPY was experiencing a downtrend, characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows, forming a falling wedge pattern. This pattern is typically a bullish reversal signal, indicating that sellers are losing strength and buyers may take control.
Once the price reached a key support zone near 156.08, it bounced, leading to a breakout of the falling wedge. Since the breakout, the price has been moving in a bullish trend, forming higher highs and higher lows, respecting an ascending trendline.
2. Technical Patterns & Key Levels
🔹 Falling Wedge Pattern – Bullish Breakout
The falling wedge is identified by two converging trendlines sloping downward.
It indicates that bearish momentum is weakening as price compresses.
A breakout above the upper wedge line confirmed the shift in trend direction.
The breakout candle had strong bullish momentum, suggesting increased buyer interest.
🔹 Support and Resistance Levels
📉 Major Support Level (~156.08):
This level acted as a demand zone, where buyers aggressively stepped in.
The price formed multiple rejections at this level before breaking upwards.
A stop-loss placement below this level is ideal for bullish trades.
📈 Resistance Level (~163.50 - 164.00):
This zone has been tested multiple times as price approaches from below.
A break and retest of this resistance would confirm further bullish momentum.
If price faces strong rejection, a short-term pullback to the trendline may occur.
🎯 Final Target (~166.79):
This is the next major resistance level, aligning with previous swing highs.
It serves as a strong take-profit (TP) level for long positions.
If price reaches this level, we may see a consolidation phase or possible reversal.
3. Trend Analysis & Market Structure
📈 Bullish Trendline:
The price has been respecting an ascending trendline, acting as dynamic support.
This trendline connects higher lows, confirming a strong bullish trend.
As long as price stays above this line, buyers remain in control.
📊 Market Structure:
Since breaking out from the falling wedge, the price is forming a classic bullish structure of higher highs and higher lows.
This indicates sustained buyer pressure and a potential continuation toward resistance levels.
4. Trading Setup & Risk Management
📌 Entry Strategy:
Aggressive Entry: After the wedge breakout with a tight stop-loss.
Conservative Entry: Wait for a pullback to the trendline support or a break and retest of resistance at 163.50 - 164.00.
🔻 Stop Loss Placement:
Below 156.08 (previous support zone) to protect against trend invalidation.
Alternatively, below the rising trendline for a dynamic SL approach.
🎯 Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 163.50 - 164.00 resistance zone (Partial profits).
TP2: 166.79 final target, aligning with historical resistance.
5. Market Outlook & Potential Scenarios
✅ Bullish Scenario (High Probability)
If price holds above the trendline and breaks 163.50 - 164.00, we expect a continuation towards 166.79.
The structure remains intact as long as higher highs and higher lows persist.
❌ Bearish Scenario (Low Probability, but Possible)
If price fails at resistance and breaks below the trendline, it could signal a deeper retracement.
A break below 156.08 would completely invalidate the bullish setup, leading to a potential downtrend.
6. Summary & Key Takeaways
Trend Bias: Bullish, supported by a falling wedge breakout and higher highs.
Key Levels: Support at 156.08, resistance at 163.50 - 164.00, final target at 166.79.
Trading Strategy: Buy on retests of trendline or resistance breakouts.
Risk Management: Use dynamic stop-loss levels to minimize downside exposure.
🔹 Final Verdict:
If price remains above support and successfully breaks 163.50 - 164.00, a strong move toward 166.79 is expected. However, traders should remain cautious of trendline breakdowns and manage risk accordingly.
📊 Stay disciplined, follow your trading plan, and always use stop-loss protection! 🚀 #EURJPY #Forex #TradingStrategy #PriceAction
EURUSDBuy Eurusd
Entry: 1.08032
SL: 1.08017 or 1.08016
TP; 1.08077
Your reward is 3 times greater than your risk.
EUR/GBP (1H) Symmetrical Triangle Breakdown – Trade SetupThe EUR/GBP 1-hour chart presents a symmetrical triangle formation that has now broken to the downside, signaling a bearish continuation. This pattern is widely recognized in technical analysis and often acts as a continuation or reversal pattern, depending on the breakout direction. In this case, the price has breached the lower support boundary, indicating that sellers have taken control of the market.
In this detailed analysis, we will explore the chart structure, key technical levels, potential trade setups, and risk management strategies to navigate this move efficiently.
1️⃣ Understanding the Symmetrical Triangle Formation
A symmetrical triangle occurs when price action creates lower highs and higher lows, forming two converging trendlines. This reflects a period of market indecision, where buyers and sellers are evenly matched until a breakout occurs.
📌 Key characteristics of this triangle:
✅ Converging Trendlines – Representing lower highs and higher lows, suggesting market compression.
✅ Price Consolidation – The pair traded within this structure, awaiting a catalyst for breakout.
✅ Breakout Direction – A breakdown from the support level confirms a bearish move.
Pattern Psychology:
A symmetrical triangle often precedes a significant price move. Traders and investors monitor the breakout direction to determine the next trend. Here, the breakdown below the lower boundary signals a continuation of the prevailing bearish trend.
2️⃣ Key Levels & Chart Structure
🔹 Resistance Zone (Upper Boundary) – 0.84227
The upper trendline acted as a strong resistance level, preventing price from breaking higher multiple times.
The yellow-highlighted area represents a supply zone, where selling pressure was dominant.
Price attempted to break above this region but failed, confirming bearish dominance.
🔹 Support Level (Lower Boundary) – 0.83500
The lower boundary of the triangle previously held as support, where buyers attempted to push the price higher.
However, once price broke below this support, it confirmed a bearish trend continuation.
The blue horizontal support line represents a potential retest area, where sellers may step in again.
🔹 Breakout Confirmation & Price Action
The chart clearly shows a bearish breakout, as price broke through the lower trendline.
Retest Probability: Many breakouts experience a pullback to the broken support (now resistance) before resuming the downtrend.
The dashed black lines illustrate the expected bearish move, with a potential decline towards 0.82815.
3️⃣ Trading Plan & Entry Strategy
Based on this setup, traders can capitalize on the bearish move using a structured trading plan:
📌 Bearish Trading Setup (Short Position)
✔ Entry Strategy:
Traders can enter a short position either immediately after the breakout or after a retest of the broken support at 0.83500 - 0.83700.
The ideal confirmation would be bearish candlestick patterns, such as an engulfing candle or pin bar rejection on the retest.
✔ Stop-Loss Placement:
To mitigate risk, a stop-loss should be placed above the previous resistance level (0.84227).
This ensures protection against fake breakouts or sudden reversals.
✔ Target Price (Take Profit Level):
The measured move of a symmetrical triangle breakout is typically equal to the height of the triangle.
Based on this projection, the expected target is around 0.82815, a significant support level.
Traders may also scale out at intermediate levels (0.83000) to lock in profits.
✔ Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR):
A well-structured trade here presents an attractive RRR of approximately 1:3, meaning the potential reward is three times the risk.
A higher RRR enhances the probability of profitability over multiple trades.
4️⃣ Market Context & Fundamental Analysis
🔍 Why Is EUR/GBP Dropping?
While technical patterns are valuable, traders must also consider fundamental factors that drive currency pairs.
🟢 Possible Bearish Catalysts for EUR/GBP:
GBP Strength: If the British Pound (GBP) strengthens due to strong economic data or hawkish Bank of England (BoE) policy, EUR/GBP may continue declining.
EUR Weakness: The Euro (EUR) may be under pressure due to weak GDP growth, higher inflation, or dovish European Central Bank (ECB) statements.
Geopolitical Events: Any negative news impacting the Eurozone (e.g., political instability) could trigger further selling pressure on EUR/GBP.
5️⃣ Risk Management & Alternative Scenarios
While the current outlook favors a bearish move, traders must remain prepared for alternative scenarios.
⚠ Alternative Scenarios: 📌 False Breakdown:
If price closes back above the support level (0.83500 - 0.83700), it could indicate a failed breakout, potentially leading to a bullish reversal.
In this case, a breakout above 0.84227 would invalidate the bearish setup.
📌 Sideways Consolidation:
If the price stalls around 0.83300 - 0.83500, the market may range before the next move.
Traders should wait for clear confirmation before entering new trades.
6️⃣ Summary & Key Takeaways
✅ Pattern Identified: Symmetrical Triangle Breakout (Bearish).
✅ Breakout Direction: Price has broken below support, confirming a downtrend.
✅ Trade Setup:
Sell below 0.83500 (or on retest at 0.83700).
Stop Loss: Above 0.84227 (previous resistance).
Take Profit: Targeting 0.82815 based on the pattern’s measured move.
✅ Risk-Reward: Favorable, offering 1:3 or higher RRR.
✅ Fundamental Drivers: GBP strength or EUR weakness could accelerate the downtrend.
📢 Final Thoughts
This symmetrical triangle breakdown offers a high-probability trading opportunity for short sellers, with a clear technical structure supporting the bearish move. However, traders should remain cautious of false breakouts and adjust stop-loss levels accordingly.
For best results:
✔ Wait for price action confirmation (retest rejection or bearish candle formations).
✔ Follow proper risk management (stop-loss placement and profit-taking levels).
✔ Monitor key economic events impacting EUR and GBP movements.
By combining technical analysis, fundamental insights, and sound risk management, traders can enhance their profitability and navigate the markets with confidence. 🚀📉
EUR/USD 1H Chart Analysis – Falling Wedge Breakout StrategyOverview of the Chart
The EUR/USD 1-hour chart is forming a falling wedge pattern, which is a bullish reversal setup. This indicates that although the price has been trending downward, the selling pressure is weakening, and a breakout to the upside is becoming more likely.
Currently, the price has broken above the wedge, signaling potential trend reversal. However, traders should watch for a retest of the breakout level to confirm whether the price holds above the resistance-turned-support area before further upward movement.
Key Components of the Chart
1️⃣ Falling Wedge Pattern (Bullish Reversal Signal)
A falling wedge consists of two downward-sloping trendlines that converge, showing a narrowing price range. This pattern is formed when:
The price makes lower highs and lower lows, indicating a downtrend.
The slope of the lower trendline is less steep than the upper one, meaning sellers are losing momentum.
Eventually, the price breaks out above the upper trendline, confirming a bullish reversal.
2️⃣ Support & Resistance Levels
✅ Support Zone (Key Demand Area)
The price recently tested a strong support level (highlighted in beige), where buyers aggressively entered the market.
This level has held multiple times, indicating that buyers are stepping in whenever the price reaches this zone.
The green upward arrow suggests that this is a key accumulation area, where demand is stronger than supply.
🚫 Resistance Zone (Profit Target)
The resistance zone near 1.09450 is the first major target for bulls.
Historically, price action has struggled to break through this level, making it a logical place to take profits.
3️⃣ Breakout Confirmation & Retest
The price has successfully broken out above the falling wedge, which is a strong buy signal.
However, a retest of the breakout level (marked by the yellow circle) might occur before further bullish continuation.
If the price retests and holds above the previous resistance (now support), this will confirm the breakout and provide an additional buying opportunity.
Trade Execution Strategy
📌 Entry Point:
Enter a long trade after the breakout confirmation.
For conservative traders, waiting for a successful retest before entering can reduce risk.
📌 Stop-Loss Placement:
Place a stop loss just below the recent swing low at 1.07541 to limit downside risk.
This ensures that if the breakout fails, the trade is exited with minimal loss.
📌 Profit Target:
The first take-profit target is at 1.09450, the key resistance level.
If bullish momentum continues, traders can look for higher targets based on price action.
📌 Risk-to-Reward Ratio:
This setup provides a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, meaning that potential profits outweigh the risk taken on the trade.
Technical Indicators Supporting the Trade
📈 Trend Reversal Signals
The market has been in a downtrend, but the falling wedge signals a potential reversal.
A higher low after the breakout would further confirm the uptrend.
📊 Volume Confirmation
Ideally, a breakout should be accompanied by increased volume, showing strong buying pressure.
If volume is low, a false breakout could occur, requiring careful trade management.
🔍 Retest & Price Action
A retest of the breakout level should hold above the wedge to confirm bullish momentum.
If the price fails to hold and falls back below, the breakout may have been a fakeout, meaning traders should exit or wait for re-entry.
Risk Management & Trade Considerations
Always use a stop-loss to manage risk.
If the price fails to stay above the breakout level, consider exiting early.
Watch for external market factors such as news events or economic data releases, which can impact EUR/USD volatility.
Conclusion: Bullish Momentum is Building 🚀
This falling wedge breakout on the EUR/USD chart provides a high-probability long trade setup. As long as price holds above the breakout level, bullish continuation toward 1.09450 is expected. Traders should monitor price action carefully and adjust their positions accordingly to maximize gains while managing risks.
COMP - Shift in Momentum in Action!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
🔹 COMP has been overall bearish trading within the falling channel in red.
However , it is currently rejecting a strong weekly support at $35 - $40.
Moreover, it is clear that the bears are exhausted as the bearish impulse phases are getting more flat.
📈 For the bulls to take over, and shift the momentum in their favor, a break above both trendlines and $50 round number is needed.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Silver (XAG/USD) Double Top Reversal – Bearish Trading SetupThe provided 1-hour chart for Silver (XAG/USD) presents a well-structured bearish trade setup, highlighting key price action patterns, technical indicators, and confluence factors that suggest a potential downside move. Let's analyze the chart step by step to understand the logic behind this bearish trade setup.
1. Market Structure & Trend Overview
Silver (XAG/USD) has been in a short-term uptrend, as indicated by the ascending trendline. However, the trend now shows signs of exhaustion, with a clear shift in market behavior. The price action reveals the formation of a double top at a strong resistance level, coupled with a Change of Character (CHOCH), which signals a possible reversal.
A break below the trendline suggests that the bullish momentum is losing strength, and sellers are beginning to dominate the market. The combination of these elements makes this setup a high-probability short trade opportunity.
2. Key Technical Levels & Zones
A. Resistance Zone ($33.96 - $34.20) – The Selling Pressure Area
The chart marks a clear resistance zone, where price has struggled to break higher.
Two price rejections from this level indicate that sellers are actively defending this region.
This zone serves as an ideal stop-loss area for short trades, as a breakout above this level would invalidate the bearish setup.
B. Double Top Formation – Reversal Pattern
The price tested the resistance zone twice and failed to establish new highs, forming a double top structure.
A double top is a well-known bearish reversal pattern, indicating a shift from bullish to bearish momentum.
The second top (Top 2) aligns with a downward trendline, further confirming that sellers are stepping in at lower levels.
C. Support Level ($32.60 - $32.80) – Initial Reaction Zone
This area has previously acted as a demand zone where buyers stepped in.
If the price breaks below this support, it would confirm further downside movement towards the final target.
D. Trendline Breakdown – Loss of Bullish Momentum
The dotted trendline represents the previous bullish trend, supporting price action for several days.
A break below this trendline suggests a structural shift in market dynamics, meaning buyers are losing control.
The failure to reclaim the trendline increases the probability of a deeper move downward.
E. Target Level ($32.11 - $32.20) – The Bearish Objective
The projected target is based on the double top’s measured move, which suggests a price drop to at least $32.11.
This level also coincides with previous historical price action, making it a strong confluence zone for profit-taking.
3. Trading Strategy & Execution Plan
📌 Entry Point:
Aggressive Entry: Short position around $33.40 - $33.50, near the second top where price rejected the trendline.
Conservative Entry: Wait for a confirmed break and retest of the support level at $32.80 before entering short.
📌 Stop-Loss Placement:
The stop-loss should be placed above the resistance zone at $33.96.
This level ensures that the trade is invalidated if the price breaks out higher.
📌 Take-Profit Target:
Primary Target: $32.60, which is the first support level where price may temporarily react.
Final Target: $32.11, aligning with the double top breakdown target and historical support.
📌 Risk-Reward Ratio:
A minimum 1:2 risk-reward ratio, meaning for every 1% risked, there is a potential 2%+ gain.
This makes the trade favorable in terms of risk management.
4. Confluence Factors Supporting the Bearish Outlook
✅ Double Top Formation – A classic bearish reversal pattern.
✅ Lower Highs Formation – Indicates increasing selling pressure.
✅ Trendline Breakdown – A significant loss of bullish momentum.
✅ Resistance Zone Rejection – Strong seller presence.
✅ CHOCH (Change of Character) – Confirms a shift in market sentiment.
5. Risk Management & Alternative Scenario
📌 What If Price Moves Against the Trade?
If the price breaks above $33.96, the bearish outlook becomes invalid, and a potential bullish continuation could follow. In this case:
Stop-loss is triggered, and the setup is considered invalid.
Traders should then wait for a new setup before re-entering the market.
📌 Market Conditions to Monitor:
Volatility: Ensure there is enough momentum in the market before entering.
Volume Confirmation: A break below support should have strong volume.
News Events: Watch out for fundamental catalysts, such as US Dollar strength, economic data, and geopolitical events, which could influence Silver’s price movement.
6. Final Thoughts & Summary
This chart setup provides a clear bearish trade opportunity based on technical analysis. The combination of double top formation, resistance rejection, trendline breakdown, and lower highs strongly supports the idea of further downside movement.
💡 Key Takeaways:
Bearish bias is valid as long as price stays below $33.96.
Target is set at $32.11, with an intermediate support at $32.60.
Risk-to-reward is favorable, making it an ideal short trade setup.
If the market follows this expected scenario, this trade has the potential to yield significant profit while maintaining disciplined risk management. However, always stay alert to market conditions and adjust strategies accordingly.
