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2024-09-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - Strong second leg up (daily tf) and bulls even tried to break above the bear flag but for now I doubt the breakout will be succesful. We are right in the middle of the broad bear channel and odds are 50/50 for either side. Above 72 odds rise for the bulls and below 69.5 I favor the bears again. comment: In my weekly outlook I wrote that if 65 holds, bulls are favored for 73 or 74. High today was 71.92. I doubt bulls are strong enough to break above the bull channel and make the pullback even steeper. 50% pullback from the selloff since 77 is around 71.5, so we are right in the middle of the broad bear channel. Odds favor the bears to test the lower bull channel around 70.5 again. If bulls fail there and bears can break below, we will likely see a retest of 67 or 66. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 66 - 74 bull case: Bulls got decent follow through and they want an endless pullback for the bears and keep going until they hit the upper bear trend line around 74.5. They are trading above the 4h 20ema and every touch of it is bought. As long as they keep it above 70, higher prices are expected. Invalidation is below 70. bear case: Bears see this bear flag with 3 pushes up as done and the 50% pb is high enough to try for a continuation of the bear trend. Don’t be among the first to join them. Confirmation would be a 15m bar close below 70 and a break below the bull channel. Invalidation is above 72. short term: Neutral around the 50% pb 71.5. Bearish below 70 and bullish above 72. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-08: Bears broke below multi month support and want a retest of 64.46 or lower. Right now the selling is a bit too steep to be sustainable. When we get a more complex pullback and form a decent channel, I will write a longer update here. Can this bear trend be the start of a bigger where we see Oil below 50$ again? I have absolutely no idea but the current daily chart can not not lead to that conclusion. current swing trade : None trade of the day: Buying the 4h 20ema is profitable again.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
2024-09-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Many new highs but also a deep pullback and we closed around the middle of the daily range. Are we smarter than yesterday? We know that bulls remain in control since we are trading above most higher tf ema but bears also sold off for 1% today on the sp500. I keep my neutral stance and wait for the FOMC debacle to be over with. No one knows where markets will go on either 25 or 50bps. Be more like Elsa, let it go. You don’t have to gamble away hard earned profits on max confused and undecided markets. dax futures comment: Bulls got above my given target 18750 in my weekly update but got rejected for almost 200 points. Market is still neutral imo and I don’t expect this to change until some hours after FOMC. Since the market is so confusing and no one knows where rates might go, we can expect traps before and after FOMC. I refuse to trade much tomorrow. current market cycle: big bull wedge on the daily tf and bull channel on the 1h tf key levels: 18600 - 18900 bull case: Bulls printed 18800 and this could have been it before FOMC. We are 270 points below the ath (xetra) and we could easily get there. That’s also the only target left for the bulls. As long as the bull channel holds, they are in control and favored for higher prices. Invalidation is below 18600. bear case: Bears reversed much of today’s gains and did so in a fast manner. Bulls still bought it again, like the previous week. Bears need to start making lower lows again or bulls continue to btfd. Bears first target is to get below 18600 which would also break the bull channel. If you look at the daily chart we have many tails above and below bars. Bulls are grinding higher but it can reverse quickly imo. 1h ema is pretty flat, so don’t get trapped selling low or buying high. Invalidation is above 18820. short term: Neutral. Only scalping small positions until we know how market thinks FOMC is to be interpreted. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01 : 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Globex lows held and the long after the double bottom around 18680 was good. Also selling the second try by the bears when bulls failed at 18800 (double top) but it’s hard to be this flexible on bigger swings. If you took one of those, you probably had an amazing day.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
SUPPLY AND DEMAND MODULEIn this analysis we are focusing on 1H time frame for GOLD. Here I'm using supply / demand strategy combine with price action. Today I'm looking for potential buy. As we know that the trend was bullish. I expect that market price first take small retracement at least the area 2494.00 - 2488.00 and then market will give rejection if price reject this area than after confirmation we will go for buy. But in other situation if price break below the area 2488.00 and close the candle below 2488.00 then we look for sell but we need strong confirmation first. Without any confirmation we will not take any step. Let's delve deeper into these levels and potential outcomes. Always use stoploss for your trade. Always use proper money management and risk to reward ratio. #XAUUSD 1H Technical Analysis Expected Move.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TradeTacticsreal
SasanSeifi|A Quick Overview of Bitcoin’s MovementHey there, ✌In this analysis, we’re taking a broad look at Bitcoin's trend. As observed on the 20-day chart, Bitcoin rallied from the $16,000 range, leading to a price increase that saw it reach an all-time high (ATH) of $73,700. However, after failing to hold and close above $70,000, the price entered a consolidation phase and eventually corrected to fill the gap near $49,800. Currently, candles are closing above the critical $54,100 liquidity level, with Bitcoin now trading around $60,000. The market remains in a ranging phase. Historically, we’ve seen Bitcoin make significant moves around November each year, and as we approach the end of 2024, it's possible we could see a similar trend, whether upwards or downwards. It’s also worth noting that we have upcoming elections, which could impact the cryptocurrency market. Based on this, the scenarios we can consider are as follows: Bitcoin is likely to remain in this range or experience corrections down to the $46,600–$46,000 targets by year-end. However, a breakout and consolidation above $70,000 could pave the way for a further upward trend, with targets in the $77,700–$80,000 and $85,000 ranges. This is a long-term view, and to confirm a bullish trend, we need to see price stability above $70,000. If the price corrects to the aforementioned support zones, it will be crucial to observe how it reacts for a better understanding of the next moves. Stay tuned for updates, and don’t forget to like and follow for the latest analysis. I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments!✌🙌 ❌This analysis is my personal viewpoint and not financial advice.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by SasanSeifi
2024-09-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Since today was a very slow day, my weekly update is more interesting than today’s daily update (in case you haven’t read it). Bitcoin - Very good follow through by the bears and I joined them for a swing short with target 54000 or lower. 59300 should not get hit again or bears are not strong and 60000 is more likely than more downside. comment: Two pushes down now and a third could get us to 56500, where I expect stronger buying again. For now bears did enough today to confirm the bear trend line and the contracting market. Bears now need to keep it below 59300. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 53000 - 60700 bull case: Bulls did not do much over the weekend and today. They also don’t have many arguments on their side. 57500-59000 is not a good buy zone for them and we trading below the 1h and the daily 20ema. I expect more buying around 56500-57500. Above 59300 bears fumbled it again. Invalidation is below 55000. bear case: Bears did enough today to gain control of the market. Their next target is around 56500 and that’s about it. If they are really strong (which I highly doubt) they would get to 55000 and below. Invalidation is above 59300. short term: Slightly bearish for 56500ish. medium-long term: Down to 40000 (could take 1-3 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged since March, obviously updated the time range which was 6-9 months before. — current swing trade : Short since 58000 for tp 55000 or lower. SL 59300 trade of the day: Selling bar 10 with stop above bar 9. Market touched the 1h ema and continued the selling. Textbook two legged pullback to the moving average and continuation of the trend.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by priceactiontds
SasanSeifi| BITCOIN: Will a Pullback Lead to Lower Levels?Hey there, ✌ Bitcoin is currently trading around the $58,500 range. Given the lack of stabilization above the $60,000 level, we could be facing a bearish trend. Additionally, with the recent break below the $59,300 mark, the short-term outlook on the 1-hour chart appears bearish. We expect that after completing a pullback, the price may move towards the corrective targets of $57,500, $57,000, $56,700, and $56,000. ❌ Key resistance levels to watch are around $59,000 and $59,700. 💢 Keep in mind that this is just my personal perspective and not financial advice. I’d love to hear your thoughts and exchange ideas! Good luck and happy trading! ✌😎 Feel free to reach out if you have any questions – I’m here to help!✌
Short
by SasanSeifi
GALAXY SURFACTANTS - 70% ROI Potential Stock Mid Term Idea A Fresh stage 2 Multiyear Flag breakout move. Why I consider this attractive ? 1) The stock has broken out of a 3 year old consolidation zone - Flag Breakout. June 2021-Aug 2024 2) The stock as compressed for 2 months at the breakout level. 3) Overhead supply is very minimal. 4) Daily has broken out of the compression at Flag Breakout level, retested and given a good breakout again, indicating solid buyers strength. Flag targets at about 5400.
NSE:GALAXYSURFLong
by Rugminik
Bitcoin ! BREAKOUT IS THE KEY, BUT IT STILL HAS SOME WAY TO GOBitcoin is stationed in an inefficiency zone but with a lot of strength. It undoubtedly had a bullish week, and naturally, after a bullish run, the price needs to take a pause or rest. What better place than our historical zone, which we've marked as an inefficiency zone on the 1-day chart. Yes, Bitcoin still has a bit more to climb to see the breakout that I've been anticipating. As we can see, Bitcoin has been in a bearish sequence channel, and from the technical analysis within the channel, I'm aiming for Bitcoin to at least reach 64k this week so we can see a bit more price action. THE BREAKOUT IS THE KEY, BUT IT STILL HAS SOME WAY TO GO! So, until Bitcoin breaks my channel or at least reaches 64k, all I can do is wait. Thank you for supporting my analysis. Best regards.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by RocketMike111
2
#202438 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: Neutral. Big triangle on the daily chart and we are 40 points below the previous big resistance. Resistance is just that until clearly broken. Sideways movement between 5400 - 5670 is more likely than a new ath above 5721. If bulls break above 5670, a new ath becomes more likely and bellow 5550 I think the bears are favored again, at least for 5400. Quote from last week: comment: Strong bearish momentum is what we got with the bearish engulfing candle on Monday and market never looked back. 50% pullback is almost exactly at Friday’s close and if we get a pullback before 5200, it will be here. What are the chances? No idea, so every time that is so, it’s 50/50. Absolutely favoring the bears to continue down to 5200, with or without pullback. So if we get one, I will load on swing shorts. comment: Favored the bears last week and wanted to load on shorts on this pullback but bears were practically gone, so no shorts for me. Lower highs and higher lows. Triangle on the daily chart until broken. Not much difference to the other indexes. Above 5670 bulls are favored for 5700+ and maybe a new ath and bears would need a strong reversal below 5650 for bulls to cover their longs again. Similar to 2024-09-03 where bears printed a huge bearish engulfing bar, that is that they would need here as well. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 5400 - 5700 bull case: Traps on both sides and 5630 is a very good place to trap bulls again, like they did 2 weeks ago. Not much more to say other what I wrote in my comment. Bulls are slightly favored here until bears come around again but buying above 5600 right now is a bad trade, no matter how you put it. If bulls get follow through on Monday, I join them but no earlier. Invalidation is below 5500. bear case: Bears need to keep this a lower high or probably face a new ath test. Since bulls printed a 5 bar micro channel last week, bears have no good arguments until they print a bear bar on the daily chart. Market is undecided and erratic, don’t overstay your welcome to either side. If we see 5700+ next week, I will think deeply about when and where to short. Last time we hit 5700, market spent 5 days around that price before turning down hard for 10%. Invalidation is above 5670. outlook last week: short term: Full bear mode and yet we could get a 100+ point pullback. So shorting 5419 is not advisable as of now. Wait for bears to come around again. If bulls can get to 5500 again, look for a reversal and then you could load up on shorts. I do think it’s more likely that we will make high lows instead of lower lows and form a triangle. → Last Sunday we traded 5419 and now we are at 5629. I warned against being bearish at the lows and wait for a pullback. Pullback was way stronger than expected so meh outlook. short term : Neutral between 5400 - 5670. I slightly favor the bears when they print a good bear bar on Monday because of the triangle. Above 5670 I scalp long and see how high we can get. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: None. chart update: Removed the ABC correction and added the bull wedge.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
#202438 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax: Neutral. Won’t be running into any more traps again. Both sides have reasonable arguments but bulls closed last week at the highs, so bulls are slightly favored. Best pattern currently is probably the big bull wedge we are in. Bulls want a retest of the ath 18990 and bears below 18000. Bullish above 18750 and bearish below 18200, neutral in between. Quote from last week: comment: Selling is already too strong for a pullback in a bull trend. We are in a big trading range and on our way to test the lower range somewhere between 17000 - 17500. Do we get there in a straight line like we went up in August? Highly unlikely but so was the climactic selling and the insane reversal over the past 5 weeks. comment : Disappointment bar on Monday, bears tried again on Tuesday and Wednesday but market held above 18200 and bears then quickly gave up. My bearishness last week was a bit too strong but slightly profitable until the reversal on Wednesday. So, not much harm done. Market formed a bull wedge and if bulls can close the bear gap to 18750 on Monday, we will very likely see 18990 or 19000 over the next days. Bears have nothing until they can get below 18200 or we reach 19000. I don’t think that many traders will be interested in buying above 19000 but let’s see next week. current market cycle: big trading range key levels: 17000 - 19000 bull case: Bulls did not do much on Monday and Tuesday but enough to make many bears take profits early and stall the market and bears were not having that, so they gave up. Bulls are favored if they get above 18750 but I think it’s very close to 50/50 if we make a new ath. Market is undecided to the max and we see many traps on any time frame. We are above the daily ema and the bull trend line from the wedge, so bulls are slightly favored. Invalidation is below 18200. bear case: Bears gave up on Thursday and do they want to fight it at 18700? I don’t think so. Thu + Fr was strong enough that we can expect a retest of the ath next week and there I expect stronger selling to happen again. Since we did not print 19000 so far, it’s an obvious magnet and market’s rarely touch those big round numbers and reverse from there. We will likely overshoot some before big bears come around. Make no mistake, this buying here is purely absolutely atrocious from any reasonable valuation level given many German macro indicators but that stuff will only destroy your account so let’s not go there. Market is overvalued and we will likely see 17000 again this year. Invalidation is above 18750. outlook last week: short term: Bearish but only on momentum again. Any pullback has to stay below 18700. Next targets for bears are 18000 and below that is 17500. Fun times ahead. → Last Sunday we traded 18301 and now we are at 18699. Bears fumbled it on Wednesday and then quickly gave up. Bearish momentum was there on Tuesday but they barely made a new low. Anyhow, bad outlook. short term: Neutral. Bullish above 18750 for 18900+, bearish below 18200 and neutral in between. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: Cut those shorts on Thursday and will try again around 19000 if bears come around. chart update: Added a bull wedge again and made the bear gap smaller.
XETR:DAX
by priceactiontds
Dogs: Knows its boundries.If you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment! If it can hold this level and move up to break and flip these other levels. Elliott wave side, it looks like a ZZ up which would call for the lows to be taken. The last move up from 0.0009941, which was an option from my last update looks like a 3 wave move so there is a super bullish alternative here, a running flat. But the Price Action here has alot to prove. 0.0011732 is a strong resistance. 0.0011184 is the fisrt obsticle for bulls. 0.0010609 is displaying as support atm, a break and it could turn into resistance. 0.0009941 has been holding as strong support. Bulls do not want to see no more than a sweep of that level. Breaking the pivot low, could just be a sweep but the Elliott wave would have to be reconfigured. Trade Safe, Trade Clarity.
Long
by CryptoKnee
Herding CatIf you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment! Ideally it needs to stay above 0.000030662. On the Elliott wave side it looks like a potential impulse being put in, and we are at the Wave 4 of the larger degree which could mean another move up. If the level metioned breaks it becomes less likely. MO. 0.000028937 is the final level I would want to see it fall beneath. Trade Safe, Trade Clarity.
Long
by CryptoKnee
EURUSD Analysis Week 38🌐Fundamental Analysis EUR/USD returned to the 1.1100 level on Friday, before market forces once again weighed on the Euro and sent Fiber back to its opening price. The pair failed to make a near-term technical recovery as traders turned their attention to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate call next week. The European Central Bank (ECB) cut its benchmark interest rate, the deposit facility, by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.5% as expected. The ECB also cut the rate on its marginal lending facility and main refinancing operations by 60 bps. In her post-meeting press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde refrained from hinting at the timing of the next rate cut. While the ECB event failed to boost the Euro, renewed selling pressure around the US Dollar (USD) helped the EUR/USD pair gain. On an annual basis, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July and below market expectations of 1.8%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September rose above 40% following the data, according to CME's FedWatch Tool, triggering a sell-off in the USD. 🕯Technical Analysis After peaking around 1.110, a short-term downtrend channel has formed, the support of the downtrend channel remains at around 1.099 and 1.093. These two key support levels will keep the pair stable in the trend. On the other hand, if this short-term downtrend is broken, the 1.115 area will be a key resistance before looking to last month's high around 1.119. 📈📉Trading Signals SELL EURUSD zone 1.114-1.116 Stoploss 1.118 BUY EURUSD zone 1.099-1.097 Stoploss 1.095
by TVS-Trader
INVESTMENT IDEA - PAGE INDUSTRIESPage Industries presents a compelling investment opportunity, supported by both technical indicators and robust fundamentals. Reasons are listed below : Technical strengths : The psychological level of 35,000 has shifted from a resistance point to a strong support level, reflecting market confidence in the company's prospects. The formation of a hammer candlestick pattern on the weekly chart signals a potential reversal from a downtrend, indicating buyer support at lower price levels. Finding support at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level suggests a healthy correction within an overall uptrend, reinforcing investor confidence. Page Industries' stock price is supported by the 200 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the weekly timeframe, highlighting its stability even during market fluctuations. Fundamental Strengths: With well-established brands like Jockey and Speedo, Page Industries maintains a competitive edge and market leadership. Consistent revenue growth and profitability underscore the company's financial health and prudent management. Strategic partnerships and expansion efforts enhance Page Industries' market presence and growth prospects. Page Industries' focus on product quality, innovation, and customer satisfaction ensures its offerings remain relevant and competitive. Target - 43000 // 53000 // 67000 Stoploss - monthly close below 27000
NSE:PAGEINDLong
by Visionary_Growth_Insights
2
Do not trade if you do not have high probability XAUUSDIt’s not just about the thrill of nailing a setup and making profits. It’s also about recognizing when an asset has you emotionally trapped, even when there’s no solid argument for your position. Here’s a lesson from my own experience: After making a huge trade on gold ( ) , I became fixated on the idea that it would keep falling, completely ignoring the market structure. This blinded me to the obvious bullish signals the market was giving. Here are the 7 bullish arguments for gold that I overlooked in my post-trade euphoria: Monthly PCH disrespected Weekly FVG respected Weekly Swing Low respected Daily Swing Low respected Daily FVG respected Bearish 4H FVG disrespected 4H Swing Low respected Not a single bearish argument in sight—a full 100% probability that the price would rise, and indeed it did. 🚨 Lesson learned: Being a profitable trader isn’t just about technical analysis. It’s about mastering your emotions, understanding market structure, and managing your risk. Stay humble, stay disciplined.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Jaytradermb
HFCL Ltd. Resistance Rejection Sell Setup - 5:1 Risk-Reward Rati Description: This setup on HFCL Ltd. demonstrates a resistance rejection pattern with a focus on high-probability sell trades. The steps in this trade idea are as follows: Candle Identification: We start by identifying a candle that has closed above the all-time high. Candle Confirmation: The next two candles should close below each other, confirming a resistance level. Resistance Confirmation: The continued closing of candles below resistance indicates strength in the rejection of this level. Sell Execution: A sell trade is initiated as per the strategy, with a stop-loss placed at 160.00 and a risk-reward ratio of 5:1. The target for this trade is set at ₹139, and the stop-loss is placed at ₹160. This setup provides a clear framework for executing trades with proper risk management.
NSE:HFCLShort
by rg739847
3