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Gold Price Analysis September 13Fundamental Analysis Gold prices maintained modest intraday gains heading into the European session on Friday and are currently hovering near the $2,565-2,570 region, or record highs. A softer-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) report released on Thursday provided further evidence of easing inflation and raised expectations of a larger rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) next week. This was reinforced by a fresh drop in US Treasury yields, which dragged the US dollar (USD) to its lowest in more than a week and continued to act as a bullish driver for the non-yielding yellow metal. In addition, persistent geopolitical risks stemming from ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and the protracted war between Russia and Ukraine also provided additional support for safe-haven gold. This, in turn, confirms the overnight breakout through a multi-week trading range and supports the outlook for a short-term bullish move. Technical Analysis Profit-taking by some investors at the end of the Asian session pushed the price to 2563 and continued to push it up when the European session entered. Today's scenario is that gold retreats to the 2560 zone and does not break this zone until the middle of the European session, so we can buy back to the target zone of 2574-2580. In the direction of breaking through the 2560 zone, we will not sell retest but wait for the BUY zones of 2555 and 2545. BUY signals can hold TP far away at the present time because gold can completely create ATH in the near future Price zones to pay attention to according to the scenario: 2555-2545-2560-2575-2580.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
2024-09-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Strong follow through by the bulls after another nasty bear trap. On lower time frames we got some sell spikes but mostly due to bulls taking profits and not strong bears shorting. Bullish price action can’t be denied and on the daily charts we are moving closer to the shallow bear trend lines from the ath and we are mostly inside triangles. Daily charts tell the story and it’s bullish so we can’t expect a strong bear reversal tomorrow. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Triangle is still my preferred pattern for now. Tomorrow we could see 5640 but anything above is uncertain. At that level I would get out of most longs. Currently I don’t have any interest in selling, since we have seen many bear traps. Today bears could not close a 1h bar below the 20ema, so look how market behaves if we get there again tomorrow. Buy on strength and don’t get fooled into shorts on strong selling. It was strong but disappeared in an instance and bulls melted higher again. current market cycle: t rading range and also minor bull trend inside since we are making higher lows and higher highs key levels: 5400 -5650 bull case: Bulls bought 5550 until bears gave up. The selling around the open was strong enough to trap many bears and that’s why the move up was so violent again. Bulls are in full control until we make lower lows again. Targets above are obvious. Next one is open of the month + high of the month around 5670 and above that is the ath 5721. Last time we got above 5600, market did go sideways for 10 days and this time we could see a breakout above or below somewhat faster. Invalidation is below 5540. bear case: Bears tried to keep it below 5580 but since they could not close below the 1h for 3h, they gave up and market moved up in a perfect small pullback bull trend which held above the 1m 20ema for an hour and 35 points. So what’s next for bears? Do or die moment around 5650 to keep it a lower high. If they fail, we most likely print a new ath. Rough guess is that bears won’t try to close the week with a red bar but just keep it below 5670. Invalidation is above 5670. short term: Max bullishness as long as the 1h 20ema is not broken and until we hit 5650/5660. I’d close longs there on any weakness and probably won’t do anything until next week. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Only intraday scalps currently. Still think next 500 points are made to the downside and not up. trade of the day: Buying the bear trap on the US open was as perfect of a trade as it gets.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
2024-09-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Gold - There it is. Another break above, which was expected more than bears breaking below 2500. Bulls want 2600 and I expect more profit taking and more sideways movement at that level. No interest in selling it. gold comment: New ath, which I have been writing about for many weeks now on the premise that as long as bears could not even break below 2500, there was no alternative to being bullish. The breakout was a matter of when and not if. Market refused to close below the daily ema for 5 days despite touching it 4 times. That’s strong bulls scaling into longs. What’s next? We are at the top of the bull channel and every time market made a new high, bulls took bigger profits. Will this time be different? I doubt it. Can bulls break above the bull channel for much higher prices? Doubt that too. Will look for weakness and scalp some shorts tomorrow. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 2500 - 2600 bull case: Bulls want 2600 and somewhat above to run stops. Nothing unexpected. I highly doubt that have bigger interest in printing much higher than 2600, given the previous sell offs after new ath. 15m 20ema was not touched on the whole move up, so look for longs once we get there before we hit 2600. Invalidation is below 2550. bear case: Bears gave up above 2560 and I can’t see them coming around big time below 2600 so don’t waste energy on looking for shorts until it’s clear that bulls have no interest in buying anymore. Bears need a break of the 15m and 1h ema to begin with. Invalidation is above 2610. short term: Bullish for 2600 and then only interested in shorts again. medium-long term: Will update on the weekend. Bulls are clearly much stronger than most expected. Market refuses to go down. current swing trade: None trade of the day : If in doubt, zoom out. 1h chart showed only strength since Globex. Buy anywhere and make money.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by priceactiontds
XAUUSD | Short from Resistance or NEW All Time High ? Everyone's favourite precious metal has been in a near month long range zone for the last few weeks following a surge to the all time high level of $2,532 and a range low of $2,471 in where gold has been stuck in consolidation even with Non Farm Payroll which failed to break this strong range zone. Most recently we have seen a large bullish surge in momentum that has driven gold from $2,484 to the now resistance topside of the range at $2,536 where it is likely to see another fractal pivot bring price back into the range however that being said with todays upcoming USD releases for the CPI + Inflation Rate traders are anticipating if this could be the day we break the topside and push for another all time high which could be likely but as always is a 50/50 gamble on such red flag events. Price action wise I will be aiming for the short range from $2,515 - $2,502 with a continuation of the range likely for the next 2 weeks, but as per any high impact news day I will be looking closely at the market structure and volume during these events whilst utilising correct risk management and preferable being out of my trades before and seeing where suitable entries lie following such events. What are your thoughts ? Let me know in the comments below :)
BLACKBULL:XAUUSDShort
by OfficialKieranTrewick
How I Use Multi Timeframe Analysis to Capture LARGE Price SwingsDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. Trading involves real risk. Do your own due diligence. TUTORIAL: Today, I demonstrate the thought process and mechanical steps I take when trading my Multi-Timeframe strategy. We take a look at US Treasuries, which have offers a classic lesson in how to apply this approach. As you will see, throughout the year, this approach took some losses prior to getting involved in the "real" move which we anticipated. No strategy is perfect, and I do not purport this to be perfect. It is a rules based and effective way to read price. This strategy is great for people who don't have a lot of time to spend at the charts. I would classify this more as an "investing" strategy when utilizing the 12M-2W-12H timeframe. If you have questions about anything in this video, feel free to shoot me a message. I hope you have all had a great week so far. Good Luck & Good Trading.
CBOT:ZF1!Education
by Tradius_Trades
3
2024-09-11 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - What a bear trap that was. Many decent double bottoms and then straight up melting. Many markets did not even touch the 3m 20ema on the move up. Bulls took full control again imo and I expect the highs to be retested, if not broken. SP500 the strongest of the ones I trade. Very very low chance of this being a bull trap after a bear trap and we reverse hard tomorrow but at this point of the chop, I won’t rule anything out. nasdaq e-mini futures comment: I try to stick to the only important pattern for me right now. Huge triangle, fits the unclear and erratic direction of the current price action. 19600 will likely be tested again because bulls just bought too strongly today. I’d be surprised if we break above 19700 though. If we do, no reason not to print 20000 or a new ath. current market cycle: trading range - triangle on the daily chart key levels: 18300 - 19800 bull case: Bulls trapped many bears today and printed a nasty reversal. I think most bears already gave up and we are free to trade to at least 19600. Problem with longs is the stop. Right now you would have to do 18600 and that’s just dumb. So should you wait for a pullback? Yes. Invalidation is below 18900. bear case: Do bears have any arguments until 19600? I don’t think so. There is a minor trend line running 19300ish but its weak. The bigger trend line from the ath is more likely and there I expect more resistance from the bears. If bears somehow manage to drop it below 18900 again, market is probably neutral again. Invalidation is above 19300. short term: max bullish for 19600, if bulls come around again tomorrow. Would like to see a pullback to the 1h or at least 15m ema. medium-long term: This climactic blow off top is/was the grand finale of this bull trend. Perfect break above multiple patterns which I expect is a bull trap and we will test the various support lines next before the new bear trend will unfold over the next 3-9 months. —unchanged since 2024-06 current swing trade : Nope. trade of the day: Buying 18600 was profitable since Monday.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Long
by priceactiontds
2024-09-11 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - What a bear trap that was. Many decent double bottoms and then straight up melting. Many markets did not even touch the 3m 20ema on the move up. Bulls took full control again imo and I expect the highs to be retested, if not broken. SP500 the strongest of the ones I trade. Very very low chance of this being a bull trap after a bear trap and we reverse hard tomorrow but at this point of the chop, I won’t rule anything out. dax futures comment: Dax is not looking that strong like the sp500 does. Technically it’s currently just a two legged pullback to the daily ema and odds still favor the bears for another leg down. If the bulls break above 18550, that changes and bulls are favored to trade back to 18800 and above. Very important day tomorrow. current market cycle: trading range until either 18550 or 18200 broken key levels: 18200 - 18550 bull case: Strong reversal after the double bottom around 18220 today. If bulls generate follow through above 18550 tomorrow, many bears could give up and we see an acceleration upwards. Invalidation is below 18400 (not sure about the invalidation level as of now). bear case: Bears need a bit of a miracle tomorrow to prevent the bulls from breaking above 18550. The bear channel is gone and the 4h ema too. What arguments do bears have? Well, the current price action is wild in both directions. Since Friday we are in a 400ish point trading range. Technically, on the daily chart, it’s still just a two legged pullback to the daily ema and bears could try to get another leg down, I just highly doubt those arguments are better than the bullish ones. Invalidation is above 18550. short term : I wait for the breakout above given price. Bears would need to trade below 18400 before I think about shorts again. 18500 is a bad spot to enter new positions. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: None. trade of the day : Short near the 4h ema was once again a very good trade. Buying the double bottom bar 4 Tuesday and bar 4 today.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
BTC: Impulse or ImposterIf you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment! I'm bullish on CRYPTOCAP:BTC on the 1-hour chart as long as price action continues to print higher lows and higher highs. The current Elliott wave structure still looks intact. A breakdown below 56122 would lean toward the Zigzag pattern being complete. However, if 56122 holds, there's a good chance we could see a move closer to 60K. Trade Safe, Trade Clarity.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by CryptoKnee
Dogs: Reaction to invisible fencesIf you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment! Dogs looks ok as long as it stays above 0.0009941. It's followed my paths down a played off of my levels down, which remain reactive. The price action is still printing lower highs and lower lows. A 3-wave move down to the last pivot suggests the correction may not be over yet. For the bullish case to strengthen, the move up needs to stay intact, no break of the low, and break 0.0011390 to challenge the current Elliott wave outlook. Trade Safe, Trade Clarity.
Long
by CryptoKnee
2
2024-09-10 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - Bears in full control and the 4h ema is king. Bulls are also making money buying new lows, so we have some two sided trading, despite the bear strength. comment: 4h 20ema. Add that to your wti crude oil chart and trade it. Market is respecting it and there are amazing trades to be made. How long will it continue? No one knows but markets tend to do what they have been doing. Intertia. The bear channel is also looking good for now. Where could be the next bigger support for the bulls? 64.46 was my bigger target for the bears and they already reached it. The 2023-12 low is at 63.21 and the next support below would be 60. For now I think shorts are not favored near the lower bear trend line and I would only look for shorts near the 4h ema. Can you long this? You can but stop would probably be 64.7ish because 65 could easily get tested. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 63 - 71 bull case: Bulls are content with scalping long at new lows. They are quick to exit once bigger bears come around and that’s why the selling ist mostly done via quick spikes (roughly 1h in length). Since we are at the lows of the bear channel, r:r favors the bulls for 67 or 68. Invalidation is below 64.7. bear case: Bears are in obviously in control. The selling is orderly with pull backs and we are in a decent channel down. Also true is that bears take profits at new lows, hence the pullbacks to the 4h ema. 63 to 67 was an area where the market produced a lot of tails below the bars in December and January. I doubt bears can continue this strong through that price area. Invalidation is above 68.8. short term: Bullish for retest of the upper bear channel and 4h ema. SL is 64.7. medium-long term: Will update after this week. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Once again, a short near the 4h ema.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
2024-09-10 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Dax puked hard but bulls are also making money there. Rest of my followed indexes were mixed. Bears still expect a bigger second leg down when you look at the daily charts. Add the bull trend lines to the current bear flags and wait for a break below. If we get it, I do think most bulls will cover. I am not too fond of buying currently. dax futures comment: 4h ema is your guide. Saw multiple rejections there again and sold off hard. Market is going straight up and down, bears are in control but both sides make money. We have a decent bear channel but bears were not strong enough to touch the lower trend line again, before bulls bought it aggressively. I think they can get it above 18420 or higher. If not, the bear trend could accelerate downwards but I doubt that. Overall markets are too two sided currently. current market cycle : bear trend key levels : 18200 - 18550 bull case: No close above the 4h ema, no breakout above previous highs but market is two sided enough for bulls to make money. No better arguments for them until they make higher highs and higher lows again. I think 18000 is probably the next bigger support where it could happen but bears already had 3 pushes down and pullbacks. Chances for a 4th or 5th leg down are very small so bulls could try to keep it above 18210. Invalidation is below 18440. bear case: Lower highs, lower lows. Bears are in control. No more magic to it. We have the 4h ema as a good sport to short and the upper bear channel line. Market did bounce 10 points above my calculated 50% pullback for the bull trend and tomorrow will be interesting if bears can do a lower high again and break below 18200. Much easier to trade this currently, if you look more at higher than lower time frames, which leads me to the argument for the bulls about the 3 pushes down. On the daily chart bears see one giant leg down and want another one. We are currently in a bear flag and if bulls fail to trade above 18700, odds favor the bears for a giant second leg down. Invalidation is above 18523. short term : Bullish for 18440+ but problem is the stop. If you would short 18303, where would you put it? Only good one is 18209 but that could easily get tested again. Best to not trade in the middle of the channel or only on very strong momentum. Above 18440 I favor shorts again, if we stay below 18523. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: Closed the shorts too early. Bad trading on my part. Read was good though. Also expected the bounce but got stopped out badly because I entered too early and market dropped way deeper than expected. trade of the day: Short near the 4h ema.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
EURUSD | Long From Support ZoneFollowing a recent inner descending channel on the EURUSD we have reached a key support zone where a potential pivot could create a lower high in the overall bull trend and surge the euro back up and out of the current inner channel. With the key resistance zone lying around 1.12000 I can see price pushing to this level before either correcting back in the range or pushing above into the resistance zone and creating a higher high which would again validate the current market structure for the overall bull trend in ascending fashion. What are your thoughts?
Long
by OfficialKieranTrewick
1
Gold price analysis September 10Fundamental Analysis Gold prices struggled to capitalize on yesterday’s rebound from the $2,485 support zone and attracted some selling on Tuesday. However, the commodity held above the psychological $2,500 mark during the early part of the European session as traders appeared reluctant to place directional bets ahead of this week’s US inflation figures. The key US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is scheduled for release on Wednesday, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. The data will influence market expectations on the size of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut later this month and provide fresh directional impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal. Heading into the key data risk, the US Dollar (USD) edged closer to the monthly high reached last week amid bearish bets for a larger Fed rate cut in September. This, coupled with a solid performance in global equity markets, is seen undermining safe-haven Gold. Despite the decline, XAU/USD remains confined within a familiar range that has been maintained for about the past three weeks, indicating hesitation among traders about the short-term trajectory. This makes it more prudent to wait for a sharp sell-off to follow before positioning for the recent pullback from the vicinity of the all-time high tested after the release of the mixed US jobs report last Friday. Technical Analysis Gold is still approaching the key 2507 price zone. The European session is trying to push above this level to resume the uptrend. SELL signal in this area can be when the price pushes up in the middle of the European session and cannot break it, we SELL and hold until the US session. If the 2495 area is broken, we hold until the US session at the 2483 area. In case gold increases to 2507, we do not BUY and wait to SELL in the 2515-2517 area. The destination is the 2507-2505 area. SELL 2516 - 2518. Stoploss 2522 BUY 2485 - 2483. Stoploss 2479 BUY 2473 - 2471. Stoploss 2467
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader