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2024-08-29 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Bulls bought the big after hour dip yesterday and had a big rally but damn that was some big and fast selling in the last 2 hours of the US session. What did we learn today? Shift into Dax and DJI, since they just melted again and new ATH on both (dax xetra, not futures though) and rest of the markets made lower highs and lower lows. Still absolutely neutral imo but if bears get follow through tomorrow, the highs are probably in for this bull leg. dax futures comment: 3 clearn pushes up to a new xetra ath and volume is picking up again. Time for a reversal. Can you short this yet? I think so but stop has to be 19050ish and we are still above many bull trend lines. If you want higher probability, wait for bears to make lower lows again. Absolute ripper of a bull leg since early August and given the atrocious volume, had to be a short squeeze. I expect the next 2000 points will be made to the downside over the next 10 weeks. current market cycle: huge trading range key levels : 17000 - 19000 bull case: Bulls were relentlessly buying this but now with a new ath and all the remaining bear stops hit, market is free to do whatever. Bulls could do a blow-off top 19100/19200 before strongly reversing but i favor a retest of 19000 tomorrow before sideways to down movement. Bulls want to stay above 18800 as long as possible. Invalidation is below 18800. bear case: Bears want to trap as many late bulls as possible but before more bears come around and more bulls begin to take profits, we would need to start breaking bull trend lines and producing consecutive bear bars on higher time frames. The daily chart tells you everything you need to know as a bear right now. Below 18800 bears start to have some arguments but as of now, expect BTFD to continue until it has clearly stopped. Invalidation is above 18800. short term: If you get bullish at a new ath, no one can help you. Trend is your friend and all that but betting on another leg up is gambling at best. Scalp long if the momentum is there but get out early. This can and probably will turn soon. Absolutely neutral as of now and only touching it if one side is clearly in control. Caught a 60 point drop today, very happy with that. medium-long term: 17000/17100 was my target for at least 3 months now and bears got it. We are in a correction since we dropped more than 10% from the ath. Many long term trader buy a 5%, 10%, … dip and a bounce here was expected. I do think we are in a bear trend which will most likely lead down to 15600 or 15000 over the next months but we can only be more certain, once this pullback is done and we make new lows below 17000 and have a channel from which we can calculate new targets. I called the highs in early July and there is a decent chance we will not see them for a long time. —unchanged since early July current swing trade: Nope but long term shorts are looking juicy. trade of the day: Buying the open was again very profitable. Long above bar 29 was very reasonable. Shorting below bar 72 was also a good trade, one which I took.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
2024-08-29 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - News again which let the market rip for 285 ticks but above 67.7 we saw bigger profit taking and a decent pullback to the 30m ema. Kinda in the middle of the range and I am not trading there. Also no opinion on where to go next. Around 77 I favor bears to get back down again and around 74 I favor the bulls. Trading range price action. comment : Bulls had the news on their side today and strongly reversed from 74 for almost 3$. I expect another test of 77 tomorrow and there market decides if it wants to break above the weekly high 77.59 or trade back down to 74. Can also very well close exactly at the mid point 75.5. Neutral around 75-76, bearish near 77 and bullish around 74. Fade the extremes as long as market is making lower highs and higher lows. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 74 - 77 bull case: Bulls got near the bear trend line again and found more sellers than buyers. They want at least a retest of 77 and poke the trend line. Since no side has any control for many weeks now, I don’t expect this to change tomorrow. Invalidation is below 75. bear case: Bears stepped aside after the news release but come through near the bear trend line. They defended it and want to keep this below 77 / 77.59. 76 is a bad short, so the closer to 77 they can get, the better the math. Invalidation is above 76.2. short term: Neutral. Bullish above 76.2 for retest of 77 and then wanting to fade the extremes as mentioned in the comment. medium-long term : We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again. Update: If we break below 70.67, the triangle is dead and we need to find new support. Will update this again when it happens. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long bar 7 or 8. Very strong bull bars after a climactic bear bar 7 which made a decent double bottom with bar 8 from Wednesday.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
XAUUSD 4HR Analysis UpdateGold took a tumble mid week down to $2,495 which saw it respect the same dynamic support level and 50 ema for the second time in the last week as we saw last thursday, as price is now respecting this key level and ranging between this and the all time high with gold teasing a break above the resistance with the bull trend still intact in a continuation play its likely we will soon see new all time highs unless gold breaks the key support, closes below such and the floating dynamic ema whilst invalidating the market structure. Going forwards I can see price still ranging between the lower $2,500's with perhaps a lower high in the smaller time frames created around $2,506 as a short term target before aiming for longer term target of $2,550 and so on.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSDLong
by OfficialKieranTrewick
Gold Price ActionHey Traders, Hope you're all making some great profits! I've marked out three key liquidity lines for you. The top liquidity has already been swept, creating an order block there. The price is moving within a channel, generating liquidity along the way, and there's also significant liquidity at the bottom area. We've got two strong liquidity zones that the market is likely to target. Even if the order blocks break, the market could still move towards the liquidity at the bottom. Remember to manage your risk and trade smart. Good luck, and happy trading!
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDShort
by SuvashishFx
2024-08-28 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Gold - The triangle broke above but bears sold it hard for a retest of the minor bull trend line at 2530. We are now in a nested wedge and the bigger but broader bull channel. Market is mostly moving sideways though. Expecting for the wedge to break tomorrow and it could go either way. gold comment: Globex session sold off for 24 points before EU opened. Market went mostly sideways afterwards but stayed below the 1h ema. I consider the triangle broken since we made a higher high again but it does not matter. Now its an ascending triangle and you trade them the same. Advice? Wait for the breakout and do not lose money in trading ranges unless you are super profitable trading them. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2500 - 2570 bull case: Bulls bought the bull trend line and kept it above 2530, which is still max bullishness. No more reading into this trading range at the highs. BTFD is going strong, don’t look for shorts. Invalidation is below 2500. bear case: Bears trying but failing. Best they can hope for is the market to continue to go sideways until it’s more neutral. Invalidation is above 2570. short term: Neutral between 2530-2570, bullish above and bearish below. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —unchanged for many months. Will do on update next weekend. current swing trade : None trade of the day: Buying the double bottom bar 9 + 13 but only for a scalp. If you weren’t short during Globex, best not to trade afterwards.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
2024-08-28 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Some decent selling today but tis just a dent compared to the bull rally from the previous 3 weeks. Nvidia numbers were in line but the buyback should have been good enough for more euphoria and instead nasdaq puked for 200 points. I do think bears are favored tomorrow but will need follow through below 19200 on nasdaq. nasdaq e-mini futures comment: Market continues inside the bull flag and the longer it goes on the more neutral market becomes. Nvidia numbers were in line but market puked 200 points, despite the 50b buyback. Since it recovered most of it as of now, I think we have to wait for tomorrow’s US session for a clear direction but I do think bears chances are very good that we have seen the lower high at 20025 and we go lower from here. I want confirmation below 19200 tomorrow. If bulls can get above 19500 again, they are favored for 19600 or higher again. current market cycle: Bull flag inside the bigger trading range key levels: 19000 - 20000 bull case : Bulls want a new ath but Nvidia earnings did not help their case. Still a bull flag after the insane reversal. I wait for tomorrow’s price action. Bulls need to get above 19500 for more upside. Invalidation is below 19000. bear case: Bears hope for armageddon. They need to keep this below 19500 to keep their chances of more downside decent. Getting short between 19350 - 19500 is risky but can work. Validation for more downside is a 1h close below 19200. If bears manage that, we could have a bloody day tomorrow. Invalidation is above 19500. short term: Neutral. medium-long term: This climactic blow off top is/was the grand finale of this bull trend. Perfect break above multiple patterns which I expect is a bull trap and we will test the various support lines next before the new bear trend will unfold over the next 3-9 months. —unchanged since 2024-06 current swing trade: Nope. trade of the day: Selling the open was pretty decent I guess. There was no reason to exit until we hit 19400 and after that, market just went sideways.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE / PRICE ACTIONIn this analysis we are focusing on M30 time frame for XAUUSD. Here I'm using support/resistance and price action strategy. As we know that market trend was bullish and gold creates a new all time high. But now price is in consolidation range. Today I'm looking both opportunity bullish or bearish, If price break above the consolidation area than we look for buy but after strong confirmation. In other case If market price break below the consolidation area and close the candle below this area then we look for sell but first we take confirmation then we go for sell because we know that the trend was bullish and we also see the volume and momentum or RSI divergence. Let's delve deeper into these levels and potential outcomes. Always use stoploss for your trade. #GOLD M30 Technical Analyze Expected Move.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TradeTacticsreal
Bitcoin Faces Setback After Failed Attempt to Reclaim Key LevelsRecent Market Activity: Last night, $Bitcoin experienced a sell-off, dropping to the next support level after attempting to reclaim both the Daily 200 Moving Average (MA) and the $64,000 resistance level at the end of last week. Key Levels: Daily 200 MA: A reclaim of this level would have been very bullish, but the drop below it in the last two days indicates that the bulls are not ready to push higher. Resistance at $64,000: BTC’s failure to reclaim this level signals continued weakness. Bearish Signals: With this being the second lower high on the Daily time frame since June, Bitcoin is clearly indicating that it is not yet ready to move higher. Short-Term Outlook: Possible Move Up: A short-term move back up to retest the top of the range at around $61,000 is possible. Bearish Scenario: If Bitcoin is rejected at $61,000, further downside is expected, with potential support levels at $56,500 and the lower range around $54,000. Trading Strategy: Traders should remain cautious and monitor the key levels closely for signs of rejection or strength. #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #MarketAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #Cryptocurrency #SupportAndResistance #Bearish #Rejection #MovingAverage #PriceAction
by Richtv_official
1
Gold Analysis August 28☘️Fundamental Analysis Gold prices lost steam amid a modest recovery in the US dollar (USD) on Wednesday. However, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could help limit losses. In addition, US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium last week, signaling that it was "time" to start cutting interest rates, could support the precious metal as it reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets. Investors will pay closer attention to speeches by Fed officials Christopher Waller and Raphael Bostic on Wednesday for some hints on the path of US interest rates. Attention will also turn to preliminary data on US annualised GDP for the second quarter (Q2) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, due on Thursday and Friday. Better-than-estimated results could lift the US Dollar (USD) and limit upside in USD-denominated Gold prices. ☘️Technical analysis Gold is retreating from the closing level of 2424, currently gold is approaching the important area of ​​2509. When breaking this area, lower areas can pay attention to trading in the European session around 2503-2495. Today, the main plan is to wait for buying to break ATH. On the contrary, if the price pushes to 09 and does not break, you can buy in the 09 area. If you cannot break this area in the European session, you can close the order. The candle closes above 2020 after the European session ends, consider finding a recovery point for DCA to buy the target to break ATH. Wish you a successful transaction. SELL scalp zone 2530 - 2532 stoploss 2536 SELL zone 2545 - 2547 stoploss 2551 BUY scalp zone 2496 - 2494 stoploss 2490 BUY zone 2485- 2483 stoploss 2480
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
2
2024-08-27 - priceactiontds - daily update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Bitcoin - Lower bull wedge line hit like written yesterday. I favor the bulls to trade back up to 64000. If bears break below 60000, bulls could give up and we could go back to 58000 or lower. comment : Interesting place right now at 62000. The bull wedge is alive for now but bulls need to buy here at the daily ema and the bull wedge line or bears can break below and that would bring 60000 or lower in play. I favor the bulls and will look for strength tomorrow but would also be happy to join the bears on consecutive strong bear bars. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 60000 - 65000 bull case: Bulls see this pullback as the retest of the breakout above 62000, a test of the lower bull wedge line and the daily 20ema. More than enough reasons to buy. Don’t make it more complicated. If bulls come around on strong consecutive bull bars, hop along. Invalidation is below 60000. bear case: Bears produced two decent looking bear bars but are at big support. I’d be surprised if they could push it below 61000 tomorrow. If they manage to do so, 60000 is the next big magnet and below that is 58000 as previous support. If they get to 60000, I do think the bull leg is over and we move either further down or more sideways 56000 - 62000. Invalidation is above 63000. short term: Neutral until bulls show strength above 62500 and above the 1h 20ema. Bearish below 61000. medium-long term: Down to 40000 (could take 1-3 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged since March, obviously updated the time range which was 6-9 months before. — current swing trade: None trade of the day: Selling anything near the 1h ema. Held since yesterday.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by priceactiontds
2024-08-27 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Yeah I spare you your time. Markets have no idea where to go right now but I think Nvidia earnings can move it for good. Absolutely no opinion on those earnings and how market will react. I don’t like to gamble on such things. sp500 e-mini futures comment: I won’t conjure much words today for a market inside a 50 point triangle. Clear support and resistance visible. Either scalp it to both sides or wait for the breakout. No opinion on which side the breakout will happen. Both sides have arguments and I won’t try to guess it. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5600 - 5670 bull case: Bulls want to get above 5670 and to make the bears give up so they can print a new ath or at least 5700 again. I do think many bulls will give up below 5550 but that’s far away for now. Currently no more magic to it. Invalidation is below 5580. bear case: Bears coming through with selling spikes rather than consecutive bear bars or sustained selling. I think many stops will be around 5675-5680 and market would probably print 5700 fast then. If Nvidia misses and market pukes, below 5580 I will heavily favor the bears to reverse the madness. Invalidation is above 5675. short term: Neutral as it gets. medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different. current swing trade: Nope. trade of the day: Buying the bear trap at the open anywhere below 5619. Second best was any long around 5628 since market is trying hard to show you this is support for now. Selling 5649 was also decent. Trading range with clear support and resistance. Buy low, sell high and scalp.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
TRENDLINE RESISTANCE / SMC MODULEIn this analysis we are focusing on (2H) time frame for XAUUSD. Here we are using trendline resistance with the combination of SMC concept. As we know bears potential is very strong. But I'm expecting that market price first come upward at least 2420.00 - 2432.00. and then price give rejection according to concept then we will execute sell trade here and the target is set at least demand OB. So waiting and patience is the best option than loosing. Wait for your level wait for rejection Always use proper money management and risk to reward ratio. # GOLD (2H) Technical Analyze Expected Move.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TradeTacticsreal
SMC / ICT MODULEIn this analysis we are focusing on (4H) time frame for XAUUSD. Here we are using SMC / ICT concept strategy with combination of price action as we know bearish momentum is strong and also price break the breaker OB. Now we are looking at the support zone for buying opportunity. In this analyze we have two conditions if price come to the support are and reject it then after confirmation we will open buy position but if price break our support area then we will wait and after retracement we will open sell trade and the target is set at 2330. According to the SMC/ICT strategy when price sweep all the sell side liquidity then price will further move in the direction of the trend , but here price moves downside without taking any pullback or inducement. I'm looking for buy today let's see what happens and how price will act after entering into the support area. let's delve deeper into these levels and potential outcomes. This is just my analysis or prediction. # GOLD (4H) Technical Analyze Expected Move.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TradeTacticsreal
1
2024-08-26 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Morning and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - Breakout above happened as written in my weekly update. Only looking for longs now. Want 79 and then 80 before I expect a more complex pullback. quote from my weekly update: short term: Bullish above 75.1, bearish below 74 for retest of 72 or lower. comment : Bulls just continued on Monday and my 75.1 target was easily passed through. That trade was good for 200+, hope you made some. We are now at a minor bear trend line around 77.6 and I’d be surprised if we can just melt through that as well. The 1h ema was not touched once since Thursday’s US session. Very strong move by the bulls and decent chances we see 79 this morning. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 75 - 79 bull case: Bulls did what I expected in my weekly outlook and their next targets above are 79 and then 80. I do think 80 can happen today or tomorrow. If bulls can break above current August high 78.99, bears will probably step aside enough for 80 to come fast. Invalidation is below 76. bear case: Bears did not want to fight this after their leg down and market move’s freely higher without any fight. News weren’t on their side either yesterday. Where could we expect a bigger pullback? 78 is a big maybe. 79/80 is where I expect it more but do not look for any fades until bears closed a bear below the 1h ema. You would be trying to short a strong bull trend and that’s mostly gambling. Invalidation is above 78. short term: Bullish for 78 and most likely 79/80 as long as we stay above the 1h 20ema. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again. Update: If we break below 70.67, the triangle is dead and we need to find new support. Will update this again when it happens. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Longing the breakout above 75.1 as I wrote in my weekly update. Was good for 200+.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
2024-08-26 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Morning and I hope you are well. No update yesterday after hours since I was so sick I just had to sleep. That was the first miss since almost a year ago or 202 publishes if you will. Update would not have been any different since Globex did not move anything much. tl;dr Indexes - Most markets moved sideways so I will not pretend there is much value to extract out of the price action. We will have a bigger breakout soon and I have absolutely no idea to which side since I am not a fortune teller or a social media jack who posts pictures with a Lambo. They seem to be very sure of every move the market makes. You decide which is more reasonable. dax futures comment: Market is staying above 18600 but 18700 is resistance. Will probably see a breakout today or tomorrow. No deeper meaning in this sideways chop. I lean slightly bearish to get below 18600 again. current market cycle: huge trading range key levels: 17000 - 19000 bull case: Bulls are too weak to push above 18700 but keeping it above 18600 makes the market completely neutral. Bulls want to stay inside the bull channel which leads to 19000. Not much more to it. Play the range. Invalidation is below 18600. bear case: Bears also too weak to get below 18600 and currently the 1h 20ema is big support. Bears need a strong close below 18600 to have any argument on their side. Invalidation is above 18720. short term: Overall more bullish than bearish but the 100 point range is as neutral as it gets. I scalp and wait for the breakout. medium-long term: 17000/17100 was my target for at least 3 months now and bears got it. We are in a correction since we dropped more than 10% from the ath. Many long term trader buy a 5%, 10%, … dip and a bounce here was expected. I do think we are in a bear trend which will most likely lead down to 15600 or 15000 over the next months but we can only be more certain, once this pullback is done and we make new lows below 17000 and have a channel from which we can calculate new targets. I called the highs in early July and there is a decent chance we will not see them for a long time. —unchanged since early July current swing trade: Nope. trade of the day: Buying near 18600 since it was support many many times.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
PARALLEL CHANNEL MODULEIn this analysis we are focusing on (1H) time frame for XAUUSD. Here we are using parallel channel strategy. As we know that market trend was bullish. price break the parallel channel toward downside and create a support at 2410.00 key level. Now I'm looking for sell when price come at least near to the OB key levels. But without any confirmation we could not take any step. Let's delve deeper into these levels and potential out comes. Always use stoploss for your trade. #GOLD 1H Technical Analysis Expected Move.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TradeTacticsreal
SMC / LIQUIDITY GRAB MODULEIn this analysis we are focusing on (1H) time frame for XAUUSD. Here we are using SMC concept or liquidity grab strategy for identifying upcoming moves. As we know Bullish momentum is very strong. Today I'm looking for sell opportunity. If price reject our supply OB then we are going for sell but if price break the supply OB toward upside then we will wait when price come back and retest our supply OB again after retracement we will take further step. Let's delve deeper into these levels and potential outcomes. Always use stoploss for your trades. # GOLD (1H) Technical Analyze Expected Move. SUPPLY OB KEY LEVELS: (2416.00 - 2420.00) ------------------------------------------------------- DEMAND OB KEY LEVELS: (2394.00 - 2389.00)
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TradeTacticsreal
3
USOIL AnalysisOil prices have surged on Monday, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and potential disruptions in Libyan oil production. The recent uptick in violence between Israel and Hezbollah, coupled with ongoing drone attacks and bombings, has severely diminished the prospects of a Gaza ceasefire deal, pushing oil prices higher. Adding fuel to the fire, Libya is facing a significant disruption in oil production due to an internal political conflict between rival governments vying for control over the central bank. The sudden halt in production exacerbates supply concerns, contributing to the sharp rise in oil prices. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is struggling after a poor performance last week, influenced by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's confirmation of an impending interest rate cut in September. However, markets may be overestimating the scale and pace of these cuts, which could have broader implications for the oil market if expectations are not met. Technical Analysis Oil is currently in a strong position at the start of the week. Despite fears of a sell-off from hedge funds, oil prices have rallied, potentially inviting more bullish positioning. The violence in the Middle East raises doubts about the feasibility of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, and any further escalation could drive prices even higher. On the technical front, WTI Crude Oil is trading around $77.07, while Brent Crude is at $80.44. A key resistance level is at $77.65, which aligns with both a descending trendline and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). A break above this level could see the 100-day SMA at $78.45 act as another potential rejection point. On the downside, support remains at $71.17, the low from August 5, which has provided a base for the current rebound. Should prices fall below $70.00, the next significant support levels to watch are $68.00 and $67.11, the latter being the lowest point from the triple bottom formation seen in June 2023.
TVC:USOILShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1