SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE / SMC In this analysis we are focusing on 4H time frame for DXY. Currently price is moving near the support area. Now we look how market price will react in this support area. I'm looking a potential buy today, on the top of the chart we have unmitigated bearish OB.
let's delve deeper into these levels and potential out comes.
This is just my prediction before any confirmation we can not execute our trade.
Priceaction
Supply / Demand And Price ActionIn this analysis we are focusing on M30 time frame for XAUUSD. Here I'm looking for a potential sell today. If market break our BB zone toward the downside then after strong confirmation we look for sell. As we know that market structure was bullish. But in other case if market first move upward for retracement than we will wait for confirmation. After confirmation we will execute our trade.
This is just my analysis or prediction.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management.
Always use proper risk / reward ratio.
SMC MODULEIn this analysis we are focusing on (1H) timeframe for XAUUSD. Here I'm looking for a potential buy today. In this analysis we are using SMC concept. As we know that price face a strong rejection from support zone and price moves upside and also we have a (IMB), if price come back and retest this zone again then after confirmation we execute our trade and the target is set at least supply zone. Let's delve deeper into these levels and potential outcomes.
Always put stoploss for your trade.
# GOLD (1H) Technical Analyze Expected Move.
Gold analysis July 23Fundamental analysis
US President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the 2024 Presidential election has increased the chances of Donald Trump becoming the next US President, raising hopes of a looser regulatory environment. Additionally, the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) surprise interest rate cut on Monday still supported the market's optimistic sentiment and became the main factor acting as a drag on precious metals This safe haven.
However, dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve (Fed) will help limit losses for non-yielding Gold prices. In fact, market participants seem confident that the US central bank will begin lowering borrowing costs in September and have priced in the possibility of two more rate cuts by the end of the year. This triggered a fresh decline in US Treasury yields, putting US Dollar (USD) bulls on the defensive and supporting the yellow metal. Therefore, it would be wise to wait for some follow-through selling first with a buying strategy to extend the all-time high that has just been established.
Technical analysis
Gold was about to test the support level of 2386 but the selling force was no longer enough to reach the support zone yesterday. Gold price recovered to above 2400 in the third European trading session. Gold is breaking the trendline structure of the h1 frame to form an uptrend. If you can close the candle above the 2402 area, gold will be ready to conquer higher levels during the day.
The first level of strong resistance could be around 2420 and next at 2431 which will help restrain the rise in gold prices. And the SELL signals are established there. On the contrary, after failing to find 2384 again, the deeper support areas at 2366 and 2350 become more difficult to reach today.
The RSI index in the h4 frame is still below the average level of 50. However, the RSI has just crossed the MA 9 line, also showing that buyers have begun to jump in to push the price up.
Trading signals
SELL scalp zone 2422 - 2420 stoploss 2425
SELL zone 2431 - 2433 stoploss 2437
BUY scalp zone 2386 - 2384 stoploss 2380
BUY zone 2373 - 2375 stoploss 2369
Gold shows signs of recovery and increases again☘️Fundamental analysis
Gold prices showed uncertainty near key support at $2,400 during the European session on Monday. The precious metal remains on edge amid growing speculation that the Republican Party led by Donald Trump will win the United States (US) presidential election in November.
Market experts see Trump's victory as beneficial for economic growth because he has promised to cut corporate taxes and interest rates. This has driven upside risks to consumer inflation expectations.
Trump's growing margin of victory has improved the appeal of the US dollar. The US dollar index (DXY), which tracks the value of the US dollar against six major currencies, fell slightly to 104.20 on Monday after a strong recovery from a four-month low is 103.65.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to 4.22%. Lower yields on interest-bearing assets reduce the opportunity cost of investing in non-interest-bearing assets, such as Gold.
☘️Technical analysis
Gold prices trade in a narrow range near $2,400. This precious metal dropped near the EMA 89 of the 4 hour frame and is reacting bullishly.
The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) dipped into the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting the bullish momentum has stalled. However, the uptrend remains intact. The bullish position is ready to return if the 2400 support level remains intact after the close of the daily candle.
Resistance: 2420 - 2431
Support: 2403 - 2397 - 2392 - 2382
SELL price range 2419 - 2421 stoploss 2425
BUY price range 2392 - 2390 stoploss 2386
Q2 and 100k TC Performance ReviewIn this live trading session video,we look at our Q2 performance on our live trading room strategies as well as our 100k Traders Challenge(TC) Account performance. We then look at the improvements we have introduced and the key actions points going forward. The concepts and ideas in this video can be cross transferred onto any strategy.
Tips and Tricks on How to Trade the Inside Bar Candlestick Tips and Tricks on How to Trade the Inside Bar Candlestick Formation
What is an Inside Bar?
An Inside Bar is a two-bar price action pattern where the second bar (the inside bar) is completely contained within the high and low range of the first bar (the mother bar). This often signifies a period of consolidation or indecision.
Trading the Inside Bar:
Breakout Strategy: Look for a strong breakout above the mother bar's high for a long position, or below the mother bar's low for a short position.
Volume Confirmation: Increased volume on the breakout candle can strengthen the signal.
Stop-Loss Placement: Consider placing your stop-loss at the opposite end of the mother bar.
Risk-Reward Ratio: Ensure a favorable risk-reward ratio before entering a trade.
False Breakouts: Be aware of false breakouts, especially in ranging markets.
Combine with Other Indicators: Use the inside bar in conjunction with other technical analysis tools for improved accuracy.
Remember, the inside bar is a powerful tool, but it's not a foolproof strategy. Always practice risk management and consider using it as part of a broader trading plan.
#tradingview #insidebar #priceaction #forex #stocks #tradingtips
NZDUSD: Bearish Rally Continues 🇳🇿🇺🇸
NZDUSD broke and closed below a key daily support.
The broken structure and a falling trend line compose the contracting supply zone now.
I think that the pair has a potential to drop lower.
The closest key support that I spotted is 0.589
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2024-07-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Indexes moved mostly sideways and that’s good for the bears. Even decent or in line earnings could not take this rally further, instead we sold off into the close and broke the minor bull trend lines. For tomorrow I expect more downside price action to test the lows.
Commodities - Gold moved sideways inside the same range since Friday after the sell off. Market is trying to bottom but I don’t think bears are done. Wait for the next big breakout.
Oil - Watching Oil on lower tf is atrocious and be smarter than me. Clear down trend. Lower lows and lower highs. Got 2 decent bear channels downwards and right now the 1h 20ema is decent to short against. Any pullback should now stay below 80.
Bitcoin - First decent selling on the daily since last Wednesday. Bull trend line is broken but it was way too steep anyway. Bears need prices below 65000 to have a chance for more downside. If bulls buy the dip again, probably moon again to 700000+.
dax futures
comment: 18600 would need a huge reversal day tomorrow and get below 18400 for a chance of more downside over the next days. Bulls made it clear that this is the big triangle playing out first and not a new bear trend. My bearish thesis still holds as long as we stay below 18900. Just means we probably go sideways for longer. I expect tomorrow will be a big red bar on the daily chart. Close below 18450 would be good.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18300 - 18900
bull case: Follow through buying by the bulls and they continued to stay above the 1h 20ema. Minor bull trend line also holding, so no reason to stop buying every dip. They now had 2 pushed up and a third one could get us to the big bear trend line from the ath. That’s the target for the bulls for tomorrow.
Invalidation is below 18560.
bear case: Bears need stronger consecutive bear bars below the 1h ema, for lower prices. Right now the best they can hope for is to stop the advance and maybe stay between 18600 - 18700. If they would be manage to generate strong selling below 18600, we can talk bear again. Bad stuff to trade currently. Trending trading range upwards.
Invalidation is above 18900.
short term: Yesterday I was neutral and will stay that way. Can see it go both ways again. Minor bull trend line needs to break and market has to trade strongly below 1h 20ema for this to turn bearish. Above 18700, odds favor bulls for 18770 or higher again.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. —unchanged
trade of the day: Tough. Any buy around 1h 20ema was good. Bulls made a 100+ ripper but bears quickly sold it, so you had to take profits and keep tighter stops.
2024-07-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bulls are in full control, despite a red day. Market barely going down and still 3000 points above the daily 20ema. Expecting another retest of the highs or higher highs over the next days.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 53000 - 72000
bull case: Bulls want another bull gap to stay open, which would be at 65000. Current selling is a minor pullback on the daily chart and bulls have every argument on their side to reverse again. Next targets are 70000 and the big bear trend line from the ath. Can you just buy at 66000 right now? I don’t think so. It’s a bull flag and it could go down more. I would want a break above that bull flag first.
Invalidation is below 63000.
bear case: Bears got their first decent bear bar on the daily chart but the selling was still very two sided. Bears would need to steepen the bull flag and make the 1h 20ema resistance to accelerate the selling. Bears could be happy if the bull flag channel holds longer. Their first target is to close the bull gap down to 65000. Below that would be the daily 20ema at 63700ish.
Invalidation is above 69000.
short term: Neutral. Bullish above bull flag break and bearish below 63000. Market will probably move sideways around 65000 before we get a breakout above the channel.
medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 1-3 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged since March
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Selling the double top bar 25 (Monday) + 21 was decent for 2000+ points. Your signal bar would have been 21 because it was a double top with Monday and bar 20 was a very strong bull bar but 21 was such a bad follow through, that if bar 22 is a bear bar again, it’s a decent sell.
Analyzing DYDX: Current Trends and Future Projections📅 Let's dive into today's analysis, focusing on the DYDX coin in the crypto market.
⌛️ Weekly Timeframe
In this timeframe, DYDX has experienced significant movements. Recently, it saw an upward trend reaching a peak at 24.295, which was a critical supply zone. Following this, the price entered a correction phase with lower volume, suggesting the strength of the previous upward trend. Currently, DYDX is at a support level of 1.800 after a correction phase.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 6.861, 4.068
Support: 1.800, 1.178
📈 If DYDX stabilizes above 2.510, we can anticipate a bullish momentum potentially pushing the price towards the next resistance at 4.068. Confirmation of a new upward trend will depend on candle stability above this level.
📉 Conversely, if DYDX falls back into the range between 1.800 and 2.510, and stabilizes below 1.800, it indicates a bearish trend continuation. The next critical support level would be around 1.178.
📊 In both scenarios, volume analysis is crucial. A healthy trend should be supported by corresponding volume without any divergence.
⌛️ Daily Timeframe
🔍 On the daily chart, DYDX ranged around the 1.450 level before initiating another downward wave. Currently, there is noticeable bearish momentum, and the price has found temporary support at 1.286.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.450, 1.590
Support: 1.286, 1.175
🧲 Given the current setup, a stabilization below 1.286 could signal another bearish wave. On the flip side, if the price moves above 1.450, it could indicate the start of a bullish trend, targeting higher resistance levels.
⌛️ 4-Hour Timeframe
📈 In the 4-hour timeframe, DYDX has pulled back to the SMA99 and reached the resistance at 1.450. Volume analysis shows a decrease, indicating potential exhaustion of the recent upward movement.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.450, 1.590
Support: 1.286, 1.175
💥 The RSI is currently ranging between 33.26 and 40.45 on different timeframes. Breaking these levels could provide confirmation for opening positions. However, always use these levels in conjunction with candle patterns and volume analysis to find the best entry and exit points.
Conclusion
Given the current bearish signals in the daily and 4-hour timeframes, alongside the potential trend change in the weekly timeframe, I am inclined to open a short position. However, this is based on my trading strategy. Each trader should base their decisions on their strategies and risk management plans.
⚠️ Please note that this is not financial advice. I'm simply introducing this project to you, and remember always to do your own research.
🫶 If you found this analysis helpful and want to support me, please boost this analysis. Feel free to leave a comment or suggest a coin you'd like me to analyze next.
LIQUIDITY / SUPPLY MODULEHere we are focusing on (H1) time frame for EUR/USD. I'm looking for a potential sell today. Further step can be taken after confirmation. When price enter in our zone after confirmation we place our trade.
This is just my prediction ( Technical Analyze Expected Move ).
Let's delve deeper into these levels and potential outcomes.
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE / LIQUIDITYIn this analysis we are focusing on (15M) Time frame for XAUUSD. Here we have support and resistance levels. And also market trend are Bearish. Wait and watch at which level , market price go first. Let' see which opportunity market will give us.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
# XAUUSD (15M) Technical Analyze Expected Move.
PRICE ACTION SETUPHere we are focusing on (h4) timeframe for XAUUSD. In this analysis we have two conditions.
1: If market price come back to retest this supply area and also give rejection than we look for sell.
2: In second condition if market price break this zone towards upside than we look for buy , but after confirmation.
#XAUUSD 4H Technical Analyze Expected Move.
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE / PRICE ACTIONIn this analysis we are focusing on M30 time frame for # XAUUSD. Here we have support and resistance and also we know that market trend was Bullish. Bullish momentum is very strong.
In my opinion market price comes downward first near to the support , and than again move toward the upside after facing rejection from the support.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper risk : reward ratio.
This is just my prediction or analysis , without any confirmation we could not place our trade.
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCEIn this analysis we are focusing on (4H) time frame for DXY. In this analysis we are using support/resistance with combination of price action. If market price come back to retest the resistance area and does not break the resistance toward upside so this resistance area act like a supply zone and after confirmation we are going to sell at this area. And the target is set at the support area.
This is just my analyze further any step can be taken after confirmation.
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCEIn this analysis we are focusing on (H1) time frame for XAUUSD. Here we are using support and resistance. If price reject the resistance area then we are looking for sell and the target is set at support area. But in other situation if price break the resistance area toward upside. As we know when price break any resistance so resistance change into support and then we will wait for confirmation for buying opportunity.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
# GOLD 1H Time Frame Technical Analyze Expected Move.
2024-07-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Indexes pulled back as expected and laid out in my weekly post yesterday. Although a bit stronger and faster than I expected. Dax for example already reached it’s 50% pullback to the tick and bears want this to be the high and reverse hard from here.
Commodities - Gold is also trying to find a bottom after the big rejection. Doji on the day so no deeper analysis needed. Set alarms when market breaks above or below today’s range.
Oil bears tried the follow through selling but bulls actually closed the day above the minor bear trend line support again. So bears are not as strong as they could be. Still lower lows and lower highs.
Bitcoin - BTFD in full force, Doji on the daily. No deeper analysis, bulls are in control, please read my weekly post.
dax futures
comment: 18600 is my line in the sand for bears. If they keep it below, odds are good, that we are in a bigger down move. If bulls continue up, it’s a triangle on the daily chart and we can expect more sideways movement.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18300 - 18700
bull case: Good bounce by the bulls today and they closed at the highs. They expect follow through buying tomorrow and if they can a 1h close above 18600, many bears will give up on a new bear trend and stronger selling. Market did not have a candle close below the 15m 20ema today. Find those ema early in the day and grind them up or down.
Invalidation is below 18500.
bear case: Bears stopped the market at the absolute last point to keep the sell off thesis alive. 50% pb was hit to the tick. They need a strong overnight reversal or early in EU session. So probably more upside above 18620 and down again below 18500.
Invalidation is above 18620ish.
short term: Full bear mode to hell. Shorter shorty term is neutral as stated above. Bullish scalping above 18620 and full bear below 18500 again.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. —unchanged
trade of the day: Long bar 32. Strong breakout of prev range and market never looked back.
2024-07-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Not too much to add after the dax analysis. 50% pb for sp500 is 5632, so market has some room higher. Daily 20ema is around 5600 and I do think the odds of the market turning down again to test the lows or make lower lows, is higher than going above 5630.
current market cycle: Trading range until 5500 is clearly broken. But bubble has popped and is now deflating. Enjoy the ride down.
key levels: 5540 - 5620
bull case: Bulls want at least the 50% pb and as long as they stay above the bull trend line 5575ish, their bull case is valid. One market broke above the 1h 20ema, it could not get a close below it and that’s strength by the bulls. They need follow through tomorrow and probably some force to get above 5632. That price is the 50% pb and also the breakout price, so two good reasons to go there again.
Invalidation is below 5600.
bear case: Bears need a proper channel for more downside, so they stepped aside enough today for bulls to get a bounce. Their target now is to stay below 5632 and not let the bulls gain too much hope again. No deeper analysis today, please see my weekly post.
Invalidation is above 5660.
short term: Neutral until market found the lower high and trades back down. Should be around 5630. If the minor bull trend line is broken, bearish to 5500 and below 5500 is hell.
medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —updated weeks to months.
current swing trade: Short 5700. Will also hold this until Tesla goes bankrupt or Cathy closes her trashcan of a “fund”.
trade of the day: Bulls made more money today. Buying anywhere near the minor bull trend line or at the 15m 20ema was good enough. Buying bar 45 or latest 47 was a very good trade.
USD/JPY Forex Analysis: Key Levels and Trading Opportunities✨Welcome to my channel! Here, we analyze a new crypto project or Forex pair every day.
📅 Let's dive into today's analysis, focusing on the USD/JPY Forex pair.
⌛️ Weekly Timeframe
In this timeframe, USD/JPY has shown significant movements. Recently, it saw an upward trend reaching a peak of 161.384, which was a critical resistance zone. Following this, the price entered a correction phase with lower volume, suggesting the strength of the previous upward trend. Currently, USD/JPY is at a support level of 151.341 after a correction phase.
📈 If USD/JPY stabilizes above 161.384, we can anticipate a bullish momentum potentially pushing the price towards the next resistance at 170.000. Confirmation of a new upward trend will depend on candle stability above this level.
📉 Conversely, if USD/JPY falls back into the range between 151.341 and 161.384, and stabilizes below 151.341, it indicates a bearish trend continuation. The next critical support level would be around 140.894.
📊 In both scenarios, volume analysis is crucial. A healthy trend should be supported by corresponding volume without any divergence.
⌛️Daily Timeframe
🔍 On the daily chart, USD/JPY ranged around the 161.616 level before initiating another downward wave. Currently, there is noticeable bearish momentum, and the price has found temporary support at 154.814.
🧲 Given the current setup, a stabilization below 154.814 could signal another bearish wave. On the flip side, if the price moves above 161.616, it could indicate the start of a bullish trend, targeting higher resistance levels.
⌛️4-Hour Timeframe
📈 In the 4-hour timeframe, USD/JPY has pulled back to the SMA99 and reached the resistance at 157.746. Volume analysis shows a decrease, indicating potential exhaustion of the recent upward movement.
📉 For short positions, the key levels to watch are 157.746 and 159.188, where price reactions could provide better entry points. For long positions, critical levels are 154.740 and 152.200.
💥RSI Oscillator
The RSI is currently ranging between 40.38 and 57.16 on different timeframes. Breaking these levels could provide confirmation for opening positions. However, always use these levels in conjunction with candle patterns and volume analysis to find the best entry and exit points.
📉Summary
Given the current bearish signals in the daily and 4-hour timeframes, alongside the potential trend change in the weekly timeframe, I am inclined to open a short position. However, this is based on my trading strategy. Each trader should base their decisions on their strategies and risk management plans.
⚠️ Please note that this is not financial advice. I'm simply introducing this project to you, and remember always to do your own research.
🫶 If you found this analysis helpful and want to support me, please boost this analysis. Feel free to leave a comment or suggest a pair you'd like me to analyze next.