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EUR/USD moving towards 1.02!As of December 8, 2024, the EUR/USD exchange rate has shown significant volatility, influenced by mixed economic data and central bank monetary policies. Recently, the exchange rate hit multi-year lows, bottoming out at 1.0332 on November 22, followed by a rebound that brought the pair to fluctuate around 1.0570. The Dollar Index (DXY) declined after initial jobless claims rose to 224,000 in the week ending November 30, compared to 215,000 in the previous week. However, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for December showed an improvement, indicating increased consumer confidence in the U.S. economy. The Eurozone economy has shown signs of slowing, with Germany’s manufacturing PMI declining and a contraction in France's services sector activity. This data highlights economic weakness that could influence future decisions by the European Central Bank (ECB). The market currently sees a 70% probability of a 25 basis-point rate cut by the Fed in its December meeting. Historically, December has been a positive month for EUR/USD, with an average return of 1.23% over the past 50 years. However, current economic conditions and geopolitical uncertainties could limit this seasonal trend.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
#202449 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr bitcoin: Neutral. Market finally did it and had a casual 11% pullback on Thursday. Talk about store of value. That’s crazy people talk who are in denial that this is not a textbook ponzi. Market might retest 104k or not, once we drop below 90k this rally is likely over and we will be on our way down. This is not the breakout to 200k. If you believe that, you are in peak greed-land in your head. I can see this moving somewhat more sideways but with very limited upside potential. Yearly close below 90000 is my rough guess for now. Quote from last week: comment: No updates after previous week tbh. Market went sideways and we still have to print 100k. Market could do another pullback to the daily 20ema before getting there but it could also very well just spike up there and sell off. As long as it trades above the daily ema, bears have zero arguments for anything but scalps between 90k - 100k. comment: Market did it and pulled back 11%. What do you think happens on the next try when bulls get above 102k/103k again? Upside potential is very limited and once we trade below 90k, I do think the selling will accelerate. Previous ath in BTC were heavily sold and I don’t expect that to change now. We have a clear channel that’s pretty shallow and once other markets show signs of profit taking, I do think this one will too. I would be very surprised if we close 2024 above 100k. current market cycle: Bull trend with a blow-off top. We are at the very end of it. It will turn soon. key levels: 90000 - 110000 bull case: I have one measured move that leads to 110k but thats about it. The 11% pullback was already too strong to expect this to go much further. As long as bulls keep it above the daily ema, they remain in control. Invalidation is below 90000. bear case: Decent pullback on Thursday. The next fast drop below 90000 could lead to much lower prices but it’s speculation as of now. Bears first target is to prevent the market from a new ath next week and then a daily close below the 20ema. After that, we can look for lower targets. Invalidation is above 110000. outlook last week: short term: Neutral between 90-100k → Last Sunday we traded around 97327 and now we are at 100k. Big up and somewhat big down last week, where market basically went nowhere. short term: Neutral again between 90k and 104k. Clear invalidation levels given, now it’s about patience. I highly doubt bulls can get another leg up. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10: 100k and then on the second sign of weakness, will short it to 50k. Remember, there will be people, just like in 2021 who bought all the way down and there positions were -50% or more and those legends told you to buy more all the way down. Will happen exactly like that in 2025 again. If you don’t book big profits on it’s way to 100k, don’t you cry when your position is underwater again. current swing trade: None chart update: Removed big bull trend line and added the current channel.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by priceactiontds
#202449 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil futures: Neutral af. Two weekly bear bars closing on their lows the past two weeks. Before that we had 12 weeks of most alternating bull/bear weeks. Can you get bearish now for a stronger leg down? I highly doubt it. Market has not had a weekly close below 65.6 for exactly a year. 65.6 is the November low and I expect it to hold. So looking for longs is probably the way to go but bulls only produced one single bull bar in the past 2 weeks. Need more buying pressure before looking for higher targets. I won’t touch it for now. Quote from last week: comment: The most likely outcome was a continuation of the trading range and that’s what we got. Bears are on their way to test 67 again and the market now have formed a head & shoulders pattern like in August where we broke down to make new lows. Most h&s patterns fail and are just continuation patterns. We will likely get the answer to that next week. Anything between 68 and 70 is a dead zone and I will only be interested in longs around 67, if bulls come around again. Shorts do not make sense below 70. comment : Bulls are not doing enough but bears are also barely making new lows. Market is mostly two sided and stuck inside an 8$ range for 2 months. Don’t over analyze it. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 65 - 73 bull case: I won’t make up stuff here. Market has no direction for years now and the range is contracting. Bulls want to stay above 66 and test the upper bear trend line around 70 again. That’s about it. Invalidation is below 66. bear case: Bears are in control but it’s clearly a very weak trending trading range. We are inside nested triangles on higher time frames and selling below 67 has not been profitable for more than an intraday scalp since mid 2023. It hasn’t been profitable to get bearish below 67 for that long, why would you now. Invalidation is above 71.6. outlook last week: short term: Neutral 68 - 70 and I doubt we make lower lows below 66. Even if bears push below, downside is likely limited. → Last Sunday we traded 68 and now we are at 67.2. Good outlook but trading ranges are not rocket science. short term: Neutral 68 - 70 and I doubt we make lower lows below 66. Even if bears push below, downside is likely limited. Can’t change much of last weeks short term outlook, since it’s still valid. Bears have targets below 66 but until they get a daily close below it, we continue sideways. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10: Unless an event comes up, this will very likely close around 70 for the year. current swing trade: None chart update: Nothing worth mentioning. Again.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
#202449 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold futures: Boi does this market blow at the moment. Nested triangles on multiple time frames and that’s as neutral as it gets. I doubt bulls can even get it above 2700 again at this point. 2660 is the midpoint for now and the range is big, so either buy low and sell it inside of it or wait for a bigger breakout. Bulls need something above 2750 and bears below 2560. Huge range. A lot of traders that have bought above 2700 are underwater. The longer this stays below it, the less likely it is to get back up there. Quote from last week: comment: Talk about you can’t time the market. Pretty ducking good call that was from the above outlook last week. Higher low, and lower high. Triangle on the daily, very bullish above and very bearish below. Not rocket science to read this. I do think bulls are slightly favored. comment: I won’t waste much time with this market this week. Clear triangle and market is in total balance around 2660. Wait for the breakout or play the range. My best guess would be that we both see 2600 and 2700 in the next 3 weeks. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2600 - 2700 bull case: Bulls breakout point is 2750 and that is far away. Buying below 2650 has been profitable the past 2 weeks but bulls could not close one single day above the 20ema. Best to wait until we clearly see a winner here. Daily close above 2700 would be a great start for bulls. Invalidation is below 2630. bear case: Bears need to break 2627 for testing 2600 and then it’s the big bull trend line. If they would somehow manage to break even that, last support is 2568 before we go down to 2500. Invalidation is above 2700. outlook last week: short term: S lightly bullish if we stay above 2630. Max bullish above 2750. → Last Sunday we traded 2681 and now we are at 2659. We stayed above 2630 and went nowhere. Meh outlook. short term: Neutral inside given range. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-07: No bigger opinion on this for the rest of 2024. Market is in balance until we see a new impulse. current swing trade: None chart update: Removed bullish two-legged move up.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
#202449 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax xetra: 20425 is the ath. It’s a parabolic blow-off top at the end of the bull trend. We will likely see a deeper pullback next week. My first targets below are 20000 and then the breakout retest around 19700. We can obviously print another higher high but the upside will probably be very limited next week. I have drawn 3 upper bull trend lines that fit the current structure and no matter how sloppy I draw them, I can’t see this going much further than 20500. Always keep in mind that this is not an exact science, especially when you try to determine tops. We could easily go 21000. At this point it’s just very unlikely compared to a pullback, given the structure and Opex next week. Quote from last week: comment: Late bull breakout during the week like the week before that. Another clear buying signal going into next week. There is not much to add from my tl;dr. Both of my upper bull trend lines run through 20k and I have multiple measured move targets there. More than enough reasons to be bullish and look for longs. Bears can do almost nothing to change my mind, unless we see on giant bear bar closing below 19100 on Monday. comment: 20500-20600 is my max on this. You will not get any bullish outlooks from me anymore. I could be wrong on this for weeks and would not care. The chart shows my preferred path and the only I will be willing to trade. Market will most likely test the daily 20ema this year again. Currently at exactly the breakout point around 19660. There we will see a decisions if bulls can do another retest of the highs into year end or if profit taking and sideways movement will close this year. current market cycle: Bull trend - parabolic rally which is the very end. key levels: 19000 - 20600 bull case: Bulls can keep this going as long as not many start to take profits and bears not doing anything. If the momentum stays on, there is no reason why this could not go up to 20600 or higher. Is this likely after 800 points last week? The first pullback after such a leg up is probably getting bought and a good buying opportunity for many bulls. Until we begin to see a bigger pullback, bulls have all the arguments on their side, no matter how overbought it is. Invalidation is below 19100. bear case: Just the fact that this is overbought beyond anything ever before, does not help any trader. My preferred path forward is a deeper pullback to at least 19700 but as of now, we have not seen a single daily bear bar for 7 trading days. Anything in this section is dependent on bears actually building bigger selling pressure and breaking below prior lows. We are trading at the top of multiple multi-year or monthly patterns and that should be enough to at least stall the market for now. Best case for the bears would be a quick move down to 20000 on Monday, to open up the possibility of a decent two-legged move down to 19700 or more. At 20k, I expect buyers to step in hard and produce another bounce first. Invalidation is above 20600. outlook last week: short term: Max bullish for 20k. Can we chop some before we get there? Sure but I don’t think bears can get this below 19300 again before we hit 20k. → Last Sunday we traded 19626 and now we are at 20384. 700+ points on the week. short term: No more bullish outlooks. I want to see big juicy red bars and people posting on x about “buying opportunity of a lifetime” while they double down all the way back to 19000. Neutral until bears come around. No interest in buying anything above 20100 as of now. 20k might be a decent long scalp for a quick bounce. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all for now. The current push is most likely the last of it. Bears will come back soon. current swing trade: None chart update: Converged all major upper trend lines around 20400-20600 and added a potential two-legged correction for next week.
XETR:DAX
by priceactiontds
SushiSwap (SUSHI)📊 SUSHI Analysis 🔹 General Overview: SUSHI coin managed to break out of its descending channel from the top and reach its weekly timeframe resistance. This resistance could lead to a price correction. The RSI has entered the overbought zone, but another significant resistance still lies ahead. 🔹 Weekly Timeframe Analysis: If the price manages to break the white weekly resistance zone, it could trigger a sharp move towards the Fibonacci targets: 1.618 2.618 3.618 🔹 Investment Recommendation: ✅ We recommend a laddered entry strategy for investing in this cryptocurrency: One entry at the current market price. Another entry if the price corrects downward. A final entry if the weekly resistance is broken. 🔹 Long-Term Outlook: Given SUSHI's functionality and low market cap, it has the potential to revisit its previous all-time high. However, gradual profit-taking in the red zones is essential. 🔹 Additional Notes: 1️⃣ Volume Analysis: An increase in trading volume near the weekly resistance could indicate strong buying pressure. If the breakout is accompanied by high volume, the likelihood of a sharp move increases. 2️⃣ Price Behavior During Correction: During a correction, observe whether the price drops slowly with low volume or quickly with high volume. A slow correction often signals accumulation by buyers. 3️⃣ Impact of Overall Market (BTC & ETH): The general market condition, especially Bitcoin and Ethereum trends, heavily influence smaller coins like SUSHI. Ensure the overall market trend is positive. 4️⃣ Timing Investments: Given the likelihood of a correction near resistance, avoid rushing in. The proposed laddered entry strategy can help mitigate risks. 5️⃣ Monitoring SUSHI's Fundamentals: Stay updated on SUSHI’s protocol upgrades, new partnerships, or management changes, as these can significantly influence price trends. 💡 Conclusion: Stay in the game with proper risk and capital management.
Long
by alizeynali69
Solana at a Crossroads: $240 is the Key!Solana (SOL) has been on a wild ride, recently revisiting its all-time high. But don't break out the champagne just yet! A critical resistance level has emerged around $240, acting as a major roadblock to further gains. Here's the breakdown: $240 Resistance: This price point is a significant hurdle. Multiple attempts to break through have been rejected, indicating strong selling pressure. A decisive daily close above $240 is crucial for a renewed bull run. Downtrend Potential: Until that breakout happens, SOL appears to be in a downtrend. Expect continued downward pressure, with a potential target of $180. This area could provide strong support, setting the stage for a potential bounce. Trade Idea: Long Oppurtunity: Wait for a confirmed daily close above $240 before entering long positions. Target the previous all-time high and beyond. Short Opportunity: The current technical structure presents a compelling shorting opportunity for traders with an appropriate risk appetite. Entry points could be considered at the current price or on any failed attempts to break above $240. A prudent stop-loss would be placed above the $240 resistance level, while a price target of $180 is reasonable. Key Indicators to Watch: Daily Close: Pay close attention to the daily closing price. A close above $240 is the bullish signal we're looking for. Volume: Increased volume on a breakout above $240 would add conviction to the move. RSI: Monitor the Relative Strength Index for signs of bullish divergence, which could foreshadow a price reversal. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk accordingly.
by SwingSamurai_QMA
2024-12-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Neutral until we get a decent 1h bar close below the 20ema. 20400 is overbought on probably every metric known to man. Does this mean we will sell off tomorrow? Sadly not. Can go even higher, since bears not doing anything and the buyers are still making money because we print daily new ath. Chances are there for a deep pullback into the weekend but they are very low and we need strong confirmation first. Zero interest in buying this. comment: Break one bull wedge and print another. Bulls are still in control. Bears need a 1h close below ema , which would also be a break of the nearest lower bull trend line. 20300 tomorrow would be nice and anything below 20250 really bad for bulls. Got no more bullish targets for you. It’s a bubble. It will pop. current market cycle: bull trend but very late and will end soon key levels: 20000 - 20400 bull case: Even beyonder overbought today. Can obviously continue but buying this is asking for getting trapped. Invalidation is below 20250. bear case: The 1h 20ema now hold for basically 1100 points. It will break over the next 1-3 sessions. 20300 is the first target for bears and they should finally stop the market from making daily new ath. Still a couple of bullish patterns that need to be broken first, before we can talk about two-sided trading or bears having arguments for lower prices. Invalidation is above 20400. short term: Only waiting for bears to come around. Zero interest in buying. Below 20100 into the weekend would be nice but it’s unlikely. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-02: 20000 hit, hope you listened. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your current trading at all. Now it’s about being patient and waiting for the profit taking to start. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying the open, duh. 1h 20ema held for more than a week now.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
2024-12-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold - Neutral. Death zone is 2644 - 2688. Until we break out of it, I will not touch it again. Unchanged. But the accuracy is pretty amazing so far. I am not touching this but longs are preferred below 2650 for trading back up to 2670+. comment: Clear trading range so don’t over analyse it. 2644 has to hold for the bulls and bears need to stay below 2680 tomorrow. As long as these prices hold, you have to trade the range and mean reverse. Market is in total balance, so don’t try to guess where the next breakout will happen. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2644 - 2680 bull case: If bulls fail at 2644, 2630 comes next and then the big bull trend line around 2620ish. They desperately need a close above 2680 if they want a buy signal going into next week and even then the upside is probably limited to 2700 and the bear trend line. Invalidation is below 2610ish. bear case: Bears are preventing the market from closing above the daily ema but fail to make new lows below 2644. No side has an advantage and if you don’t like scalping, it’s best to wait for a clear new trend. If bulls were strong and wanted to close this year above 2800, we would probably have seen it by now. Invalidation is above 2700. short term: Neutral. Market is in balance around 2630. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-24: Likely to close 2024 above 2800 but I do think the recent selling was the first hint that we will transition into a trading range soon. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Selling above 2675 has been profitable since Monday.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
XAUUSD OUTLOOKIn this analysis we are focusing on 1H time frame for GOLD. Here we are using SMC concept combine with price action. We have two sell areas and levels where I expect the price to drop further down. Let's see what happens and which opportunity market will give us. Wait for price when it enter into our zone and after confirmation we will execute our sell trade. Always use stoploss for your trade. Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio. This is just my analysis or prediction. #XAUUSD 1H Technical Analyze Expected Move.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TradeTacticsreal
1
Solana Hits Previous High And Something Else.Traders, In the same day that BTC has almost tagged 100k, Solana has hit its previous high. But there is something else showing me that Solana will have a tough time moving higher from here. It's that blue trendline. That started all the way back in mid-October of last year. Solana had remained above it until June of this year when the market could confirm that Bitcoin was going to continue its sideways to down price action until U.S. election time. The day after the election, as I expected, Solana broke its channel to the upside. It has now catapulted to its previous high on rumors of ETF filings today. But its run straight into the intersection of our blue trendline with the level of the previous high, making this area of confluence remarkably difficult for the bulls to beat. Will these ETF rumors be a sell the news event? I mean, you have to know that big money and insiders already knew. I expect them to dump on retail like they always do, take some profits, and then re-enter once retail knows they've been had again and start to fold. I can see the price coming back down to $205 or so. But Solana is white hot riding on the back of meme coins lately, so it's also possible that we just ride under the $260 price for a week or two accumulating before making any more big moves up or down. I don't have strong conviction with either option but I do believe the least likely scenario is the third option, a straight breakthrough of our previous high. ✌️ Stew
COINBASE:SOLUSDShort
by stewdamus
1