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#202428 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Friday I wrote on twitter that the highs are probably in and I will stand by that. Can I be wrong by another 100 points in the sp500? Sure but I doubt it. The patterns to sell down are aligning on the monthly, weekly and daily tf. The buying was more than climactic and we can see enough indicators pointing down or are already bad. Big institutions won’t jeopardize their whole trading year with overstaying in this bubble. The past 3 trading days formed a perfect bull trap and if bears can start the reverse early next week, we will see some acceleration downwards. As always, don’t blindly long/short anything. Wait for confirmation before you enter a trade. dax: Big up, big down, bigger up. Interesting week but again, nasty reversal bar on Friday. I doubt bulls will buy this up again. The right shoulder here looks decent enough on the daily chart and market could drop 600 points from here. Confirmation for the bears is a print below 18500. If bulls are strong, they stay inside the wedge and trade back above 18800. 55/45 for the bears imo. Quote from last week: comment: Market was completely neutral past week. Let’s look at the weekly chart and what it tells us. 5 Week selloff and now 2 bull weeks and past week was as neutral as it gets. Tells us that the market is in balance and does not know where it will go next. We can draw multiple bad bear trend lines and all are valid until broken. Does not help with trading at this price. Since we have a decent bull support line from the April and June low, we know that the market is in a triangle and the middle is most likely around 18300. As long as market is coming back to that price, you buy low and sell high. Since market is also staying above the weekly 20ema, bears are not favored to suddenly break below it. It’s also trading below the daily 20ema and did not have a daily close above it for 12 trading days. It’s a trading range near the ath, where the market is compressing and will soon see a breakout. comment: We got the breakout to the upside, then the downside and another upside breakout again. Clearly not the continuation of a strong bull trend but a leg inside the trading range. Friday’s bull bar is a bad buy going into next week, which raises the odds of market moving sideways to down. Two bull wedges on the daily chart and I slightly favor the bears to break to the downside at least to the daily ema 18460. Weekly tf gives head & shoulders vibe but as long as market is staying above the weekly 20ema at 18200, it’s neutral inside the given key level. current market cycle: trading range - go look at the monthly chart. It’s a clear 4 month trading range. —unchanged key levels: small range 18200 / 18800 bull case: Bulls want to stay inside the bull wedges and break above them to retest the ath 19006. They are making higher highs and higher lows and are above all important ema. Invalidation is below 18540. bear case: Only hope for bears was the decent sell off on Friday for a quick -249 points in 1h which denied the market a daily close above 18700 for 29 trading days. Left shoulder from March/April high was 18836 and Friday’s high was 18822. Close is always close enough. They also see the two bull wedges we have formed and want a break to the downside. Their first target is a retest of Friday’s low 18575 which is almost the open of last week to the tick. If they manage to break below 18540, their next target is the daily 20ema at 18470 and that’s also close to the 50% pb for this whole trading range. Invalidation is a 1h close above 18800. outlook last week: short term: Can’t be anything but neutral again. Bears managed to stay below the daily 20ema but bulls bought the weekly 20ema. Trading range price action. Will get a breakout soon. → Last Sunday we traded 18417 and now we are at 18666. High of the week was 18822 and the low was 18190. Outlook was ok. Market closed 40ish points above the open of the week and we made new lows and new highs. Trading range price action, which is why I was and am neutral for this market. short term: Neutral. Higher highs, lower lows. Expanding triangle, form of trading range. 50% pb is 18439 and if bulls do not rally strongly on Monday, I will look for weakness and a pullback to 18450 or lower. medium-long term: 17000 over the next 3-6 Months and when we get there, I update again. —unchanged current swing trade: Nothing Chart update: Bear wave and trend line is gone and added bull wedges.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
Today's Analysis: Bitcoin and BNB📅Today, the market, after experiencing a dip, is in a ranging phase. We can expect the next wave of decline to begin after this correction and rest period. The coin I want to analyze today is BNB, but as always, let's start with Bitcoin. 👑 Bitcoin Analysis 🔍 1-Hour Time Frame Analysis In the 1-hour time frame, Bitcoin has corrected to 58516 and then started to decline. In recent candles, significant selling volume has entered the market. The price has also pulled back to the SMA99 and is now consolidating below the 0.382 Fibonacci level. RSI has triggered at 44.10. The next trigger is 56045, and if a candle closes below this level, we can target 53921 again. 📈 Long Position For a long position, the market structure still doesn't seem favorable. However, if you insist on opening a long position, 58516 can be a suitable trigger. As mentioned, I won't open a long position until a suitable structure forms. 📉 Short Position The next trigger for a short position is 56045. I will wait for the price to react to this level once, and on the next attempt, if it breaks, I'll open a position. The trigger at 57033 has slightly shifted, and now we can open a position if 56693 is broken, though the target for this position is smaller than the target for the 56045 trigger. 📊 Volume Analysis If the market declines, the volume of red candles should increase. If not, I will open the position with lower volume and risk since volume and momentum are crucial when opening a position. 🔍 BNB Analysis 🗂 Binance Overview Binance is one of the top crypto exchanges, handling the majority of crypto trading volume and being the most reputable exchange for traders. In addition to its trading platform, Binance also has its own blockchain with BNB as the main coin. All activities on this blockchain are conducted using BNB, which has secured the 4th position in market cap after Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Tether. 🧩 Daily Time Frame Technical Analysis In the daily time frame, as seen, after forming an ascending triangle and breaking resistance at 619, BNB couldn't hold above this level, resulting in a fake breakout and a return to the box. The trigger for confirming the fake breakout was at 591. Currently, the price has reached the support level at 499, which aligns with the 0.382 Fibonacci level. If this level is broken, the next targets are 450$ and 390$. 📊 Volume Analysis for BNB The volume of red candles is currently much higher than green ones, indicating strong downward momentum. However, due to the selloff candle two days ago, the market might rest for a few days before deciding whether to continue the HWC uptrend or start a correction. 🛒 Spot Buying Strategy For buying BNB in spot, I don't recommend it while the market has downward momentum, unless a daily or weekly candle closes above 619. In my opinion, waiting for the market to form a new structure can provide better entry points. 📝 Conclusion Both Bitcoin and BNB are at critical points. Bitcoin continues to show signs of a downtrend, and BNB is trying to stabilize at significant support levels amid strong selling pressure. Wait for the necessary confirmations before entering positions and closely monitor volume and momentum. 🧠💼 Always remember that trading futures involves inherent risks, and improper risk management can lead to margin calls. Stick to your capital management principles and use stop-loss orders, aiming for an initial risk-to-reward ratio of 2. 🫶 If you found this analysis helpful and want to support me, please like and share this analysis. Feel free to leave your comments or suggest a coin you'd like me to analyze next.
by itsparham96
2
EUR/USD Heading towards 1.095?Current Situation EUR/USD has shown signs of losing traction but remains above the 1.0800 level after peaking above 1.0840, its highest in three weeks. Despite the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increasing more than expected in June, downward revisions for May and April have prevented the USD from gaining strength. Technical Indicators Relative Strength Index (RSI): On the 4-hour chart, RSI has risen above 70, indicating that EUR/USD is technically overbought. However, this overbought condition does not necessarily signal an imminent drop, as long as key support levels hold. Support Levels: The 1.0800 level, which coincides with the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), is a crucial support. A drop below this level could see the next supports at 1.0760 and 1.0730-1.0740. Resistance Levels: On the upside, the 1.0840 level (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) serves as interim resistance, followed by the psychological level of 1.0900. Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment Nonfarm Payrolls: The US NFP report exceeded expectations with a rise to 206K, higher than the forecasted 190K, but revisions for previous months and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.1% have tempered the positive impact. Unemployment Rate: Increased to 4.1%, the highest since November 2021, slightly higher than the expected 4.0%. Average Hourly Earnings: Growth slowed to 3.9% YoY, matching expectations but down from the previous 4.1%. Market Expectations Fed Policy: The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 25% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave the policy rate unchanged in September. Weak job data could push the USD down further, as markets may price in a September rate cut. Conversely, stronger-than-expected NFP data could lead to reassessments regarding the timing of the Fed’s policy adjustments, potentially triggering a downward correction in EUR/USD. Upcoming Economic Events Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s Appearance: Traders will look for insights on monetary policy direction. EU and US Inflation Data: Final inflation figures will be released on Thursday, which could impact EUR/USD movements. German Retail Sales and US PPI: Scheduled for next Friday, these data points will provide additional market cues.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
4
Price Action Fluency As A Second Language: Part TwoPlease watch my previously posted part one video to grasp the fundamentals. Now, let's dive into part two. Price action fluency involves more than just technical knowledge—it requires a deep understanding of your psychological behavioral responses. Your brain will have it as its prime objective to avoid pain. It will send signals to the eyes to ignore setups that don't perfectly align. Your eyes will only see what they want to see. It is essential to train your eyes to recognize every failed setup. To observe every detail of each area, and identify every possible entry point for both directions. Leave no aspect overlooked. The goal is for your brain to understand every nuance of price action intuitively and objectively. Just like when you read a book in a language you're fluent in, your brain doesn’t pause at every letter to decipher vowels, consonants, word meanings, or sentence structures. Instead, it processes a vast amount of information naturally and seamlessly. It doesn't skip letters or words out of fear; it treats every part of the language equally and objectively. Objectivity is purity. Objectivity is clarity. Objectivity is mastery.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDEducation
by EsotericTrading
1
Today's Analysis: Ethereum & Bitcoin at Critical Levels📅Today, we're diving into the analysis of Ethereum (ETH) in both weekly and daily timeframes, alongside our usual analysis of Bitcoin (BTC). Let's kick things off with a detailed look at Bitcoin in the 1-hour timeframe. 👑 Bitcoin Analysis 🔍 1-Hour Timeframe Technical Analysis After a prolonged bearish wave, Bitcoin hit support at 53921 and entered a correction phase. Currently, it is breaking through the 0.382 Fibonacci level, which significantly supports the bearish trend as the volume of green candles is much lower than the red ones from the previous days. This indicates volume and trend convergence, confirming the trend's health. The next correction levels are 58516 and 59550. Upon reaching and confirming these levels, short positions can be considered. 📈 Long Position Strategy For long positions, I will hold off until the price stabilizes above the 99-day Simple Moving Average (SMA99). Once the price secures this level, I will announce the entry point for a long position. 📉 Short Position Strategy For short positions, you can utilize the levels of 58516 and 59550 during market corrections. If the market declines or you miss these two levels, you can open positions upon breaking 56045 or 53921. The levels mentioned for corrections are reactive, and since we adopt a breakout strategy, we must wait for the price to range at these levels. With a break below the range's floor and increasing sell volume, you can enter the position. The RSI trigger for confirming momentum entry is 44.10. 💰 Ethereum Analysis 🗂 Project Overview Ethereum is a blockchain-based project and one of the best in the crypto space, particularly for those interested in DeFi. Besides its native coin and blockchain, Ethereum also supports Layer 2 (L2) blockchains like Arbitrum, zkSync, Optimism (OP), Base, Linea, and Mode, which help manage transactions to reduce the load on the main blockchain, optimizing transaction fees and speeds. Ethereum's transaction fees have significantly decreased following the Shanghai and Dencun updates, dropping from 60-70 Gwei to 2-9 Gwei, attracting more users to the blockchain. Various earning methods exist on the Ethereum network. The primary method is staking 32 ETH to become an Ethereum node, which ensures network security and earns fees from network transactions and block creation. Other methods include creating Liquidity Pool Tokens (LP tokens) on DEXs and earning fees from trades and swaps or engaging in lending and borrowing, which is a vast field in itself. 🔍 Weekly Timeframe Technical Analysis In the weekly timeframe, Ethereum began an upward move from the 1550$ area, continuing up to 4100$, then faced resistance at 3876$ and started to correct. It has now formed a double top pattern, which hasn't activated yet. Remember, a pattern holds no significance until it activates. So, we disregard this pattern unless the price stabilizes below 2914. If that happens, we can say the pattern is activated, and the price could move downward. The critical point now is that the curved trendline is broken, the strong bullish momentum in the market has faded, and the price has been stabilizing below the 25-day SMA. Additionally, the 51.51 support in RSI is broken, potentially pushing the price down. 📈 Bullish Scenarios We have a few scenarios for bullish movements. First, the price doesn't stabilize below 2914, gets supported, and starts creating higher highs. Second, a further correction to the 24709 support, a significant support level for Ethereum, might prevent further price drops. Third, reaching the double top target of 2188, which is the last stronghold for Ethereum's bullish trend. 🛒 Spot Trading Strategy For spot trading, it’s better to move to the daily timeframe for clearer charts. In this timeframe, a bearish momentum has caused the price to drop from 3919 to 2883, and it’s currently resting. If the price ranges adequately and forms a suitable structure for buying, you can enter upon breaking its range box. If it doesn't range and moves directly upward, our trigger is breaking the main resistance at 3919 unless we buy according to Dow Theory rules. Upon breaking 2883, the first support is 2620, and the second is 2188. 📊 Volume Analysis The significant volume of red candles suggests a probable break of 2883, but since yesterday’s candle was a selloff, and today and tomorrow are holidays, the price might range for a few days before selling volume re-enters the market. 🔔 Entry Points Regarding the entry points mentioned, don't place orders in advance. Wait for the price to react to these levels and form a range structure. After buy volume enters and breaks the range box, you can proceed with your purchase. 📝 Conclusion In conclusion, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are at critical levels, with Bitcoin showing bearish tendencies and Ethereum facing significant support challenges. It's crucial to wait for confirmation signals and volume trends before entering any positions. 🧠💼 Always remember the inherent risks in futures trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Stick to strict capital management principles and use stop-loss orders, ensuring an initial target with a risk-to-reward ratio of 2. 🫶 If you found this analysis helpful and want to support me, please boost this analysis. Feel free to leave a comment or suggest a coin you'd like me to analyze next.
by itsparham96
9
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - nvidia #5Good day and I hope you are well. Last time I talked about Nvidia was 2024-06-08 and Nvidia was at 120.8 and my targets were 130/140. We are after the stock split so it's time for an update. comment: Please check out my nvidia #4 post, to see how accurate it was. I wrote that once the W5 or third push up is done, we will see a 10-20 bars sideways to down correction. Since the first leg of the correction made 16% down, we can expect a second one, which would bring us to around 100$ (weekly 20ema is also there), which is an obvious magnet. There bulls can decide if they want to continue the bubble. current market cycle: If we break below 114, we are probably forming a trading range between 100 - 140. If bulls buy this up again, bull trend continues. key levels: 114 - 140 bull case: Everything as long as most bull trends hold. The big bull trend line is currently around 95 and bulls do not want a pullback that deep. They want this bubble to infinity and staying above the daily 20ema is crucial to do so. If they fail here, we will see 100$ soon. Having said all that again, it's a bubble and it will deflate. Maybe it already started and stock won't trade above 130 again for a long time. No one knows but the probable thing is a pullback to the weekly 20ema/100$ before market wants a retest of the ath. That can fail or even make a higher high before turning again. Invalidation is below 100. bear case: Parabolic wedge top broke to the downside but bulls still have 3 more bull trend lines as support. Bears are happy for now that they trapped all the bulls who bought above 130 and most stops will run around 115-118. Bears ultimately want to test the big bull trend line and the 100$ price. Thats a 40% drop and I wrote many times, that this stock will half again. Bears see the recent drop as strong enough for a second leg and the current trading range as a two legged sideways to up correction, which they want to break below from. Invalidation is above 130. short term: All bull targets are met and the ath will probably be tested. It's unsure if we get a second leg down first or after the retest. I slightly give it to the bears to push down to at least 117ish since the past days nasdaq & sp500 made new ath's while nvidia held below 130. Trapped bulls who bought above 130 will give up below 119 latest. medium-long term: Over the next 6 months we should see the 1000 price area again and 6-18 months we most likely will see 800-900 again. --unchanged current swing trade: Waiting for weakness on Monday and if bulls can't trade it back up, will do long term shorts for 100$.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by priceactiontds
BTC PA Model- i usually don't speak much when i don't see anything. - Right now we can just speculate on some scenarios. - so you can just imagine those scenarios with the figure i drew ( ending Diamond ) - you can notice some H&S and a big inversed H&S in the middle of graph. - BTC volatily is still low ( around 15ish) - i didn't find any convincing divergences yet. - The PA range have been respected almost perfectly. - it seems like a consolidation between 60 to 70k+. - BTC tried to break 70k++, 5 Times exactly. - Soon or later a breakout will happen ( next could be 85k$ ish ) - Halving is still young and the decoupling not yet started. - if we dip under 60k. - 50k is next small support. - 40k is a strong support. - very simple. - There's a time for trading and a time for waiting. Happy Tr4Ding!
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by thecryer
8
SWING IDEA - CRAFTSMAN AUTOMATIONConsider a potential swing trade opportunity in Craftsman Automation . Reasons are listed below : Strong Support at 3700-3800 : The stock has established a solid support level in the range of 3700-3800, formerly a resistance zone, indicating a significant shift in market sentiment. Bullish Hammer Candlestick : A bullish hammer candlestick observed on the weekly timeframe suggests a potential reversal and uptrend, signaling increased buying interest and bullish momentum. 0.618 Fibonacci Support : Finding support at the 0.618 Fibonacci level strengthens the bullish case, providing a strong foundation for potential upward movement. Constant Higher Highs : The stock has consistently formed higher highs, reflecting a trend of increasing bullish momentum and reinforcing the potential for further gains. Double Bottom Pattern : A double bottom pattern has formed on the daily timeframe, indicating a potential trend reversal and adding further confirmation to the bullish outlook. Target - 5440 Stoploss - weekly close below 3700 Disclaimer : Decisions to buy, sell, hold or trade in securities, commodities and other investments involve risk and are best made based on the advice of qualified financial professionals. Any trading in securities or other investments involves a risk of substantial losses. The practice of "Day Trading" involves particularly high risks and can cause you to lose substantial sums of money. Before undertaking any trading program, you should consult a qualified financial professional. Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition and ability to bear financial risks. Under no circumstances shall we be liable for any loss or damage you or anyone else incurs as a result of any trading or investment activity that you or anyone else engages in based on any information or material you receive through TradingView or our services. @visionary.growth.insights
NSE:CRAFTSMANLong
by Visionary_Growth_Insights
#202427 - priceactiontds - weekly update - JPMGood Day and I hope you are well. JP Morgan / NYSE:JPM comment: Clear bull wedge, which means buyers at new highs taking profits and since it's the third push up, the probability of a two legged correction breaking below the wedge is decent. Market touched the weekly 20ema 2 times over the past 3 months and the third time will probably happen soon. We also have a decent rejection at 210, which gives you even better odds for a short. I do think longer term shorts can work well, if you can hold 4-6 months until price reaches 185ish. Quicker short for 195, which is the most recent breakout price, is the safer play obviously. Once market hits the C target, I expect a lower high and then some stronger down move to below 190 over the next 6-12 months. current market cycle: Bull trend which transitions into a trading range. key levels: 190 - 210 bull case: Bulls see this recent bull trend inside the wedge as strong enough for a third leg. A measured move from W3 would lead to 220. For that to happen they want to stay inside the tight bull channel and turn the market around here quickly. I do think if it drops below 200, that bull trend is over and the high is in or at least a double top would not exceed it by more than 1-3$. Bull Invalidation is below 200. bear case: Bears want to keep the upper wedge line as resistance and test back down to the lower one around 196ish. They sold the previous highs for a 10% and a 7% drop. 10% down would bring us to 190, which is suprisingly around the weekly 20ema. Coincidences or math? You decide for yourself. Bear Invalidation is above 215. short term: bearish - Two legged correction to at least 200 over the next weeks. medium-long term: bearish - Trading range 180-200, since we are at the highs, longer term shorts are reasonable. current swing trade: Short 205, sl 215, tp 200ish or the lower bull wedge line/weekly 20ema Have a good rest of your weekend and talk to you soon. If you enjoy my writings, please leave a boost or follow. Thank you and I wish your trading to be profitable.
NYSE:JPMShort
by priceactiontds
Bitcoin's Deep Dive: Critical Support Levels & Trend Analysis📅 Let's dive into today's analysis. Bitcoin has finally broken the 59323 support level, indicating that in addition to the Low Wave Cycle (LWC), the Medium Wave Cycle (MWC) trend has also turned bearish. This suggests that Bitcoin may undergo a deeper correction. 🗂 Bitcoin Analysis 🔍 Daily Timeframe Technical Analysis In the daily timeframe, after reaching the 71509 resistance and a fake move towards 73000, Bitcoin began to rest and formed a range box between 71509 and 60273. Over 110 days, the price reacted to the floor and ceiling four times each, with one fake breakdown from the floor, and then rebounded from 0.382. On the fifth attempt, the box was broken, and now it has dropped to the 0.5 level or 55213. 📊 Volume Analysis The candle volume is very high, indicating strong selling pressure. If the market intends to correct and the volume decreases, it means the volume is confirming the trend. Otherwise, if the volume is diverging with the upward trend, we have a divergence. If the price continues its downward movement, the volume must increase, or else we'll see divergence again. 📉 Key Support Levels The next significant support area is between 50000 and 52000. This is a critical area that could halt the price decline, as it's an important zone both in terms of price action and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, known as the Golden Zone. I anticipate the price will reach this range and then enter a consolidation phase after a significant selloff candle. The RSI trigger in the daily timeframe is breaking 26.33, and if this level is broken, we might see a large selloff candle. However, more bearish momentum could enter the market, so we shouldn't place orders at the 50000-52000 range yet, as the price might drop sharply to lower levels. 🎈 Additional Support If the 50000-52000 support is broken, the next level is 47000. I believe this is the final support for maintaining the bullish trend in the High Wave Cycle. If we are to see a bull run in Bitcoin, the price should not stabilize below 47000. 🧩 Pullback Scenario Another possible scenario is a pullback to the 60273 area. Given the 15% drop over three days and the overall bullish trend in the High Wave Cycle, a pullback is not out of the question. If the price pulls back to this level or the 58715 area and then breaks the floor of the pullback, we can confirm that the downward MWC trend is healthy and could continue to lower levels. 📈 Bullish Strategy Currently, I don't have a plan for a bullish market, as it seems illogical with the current bearish trend and momentum. I will wait for the market to create a suitable structure for a long position. If you recall, since reaching 60000, I only announced one long trigger at 62800, which never activated as the market continued its decline. So, it's better to wait until the market forms a proper structure for a long entry point. Under current conditions, I won't open a long position unless the RSI stabilizes above 45.13, or the market creates a suitable structure for a long position. ♟ Strategy for Short Positions As for my short position strategy, I will wait for the market to exit the oversold state. By oversold, I don't mean RSI levels but price-wise oversold, as price volatility has increased. So, I will wait and observe until the market forms a new structure in the 1-hour or 4-hour timeframes before entering a short position upon breaking the trigger. 📝 Conclusion In conclusion, Bitcoin is at a critical juncture where it has broken significant support levels, suggesting a deeper correction might be underway. The next key support areas to watch are 50000-52000 and 47000, which will determine if the long-term bullish trend can be maintained. Volume and RSI indicators will be crucial in confirming the next move. 🧠💼 Always remember the inherent risks in futures trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Stick to strict capital management principles and use stop-loss orders, ensuring an initial target with a risk-to-reward ratio of 2. 🫶 If you found this analysis helpful and want to support me, please boost this analysis. Feel free to leave a comment or suggest a coin you'd like me to analyze next.
by itsparham96
1
EURUSD July 4 analysisEUR/USD surged and rose above 1.0810 to touch its highest since June 12 on Wednesday. The pair remained in consolidation near 1.0800 early Thursday. Disappointing macroeconomic data from the United States triggered a sell-off in the US Dollar (USD) during US trading hours on Wednesday and gave the EUR/USD pair a boost. EUR/USD rose above 1.0800 on Wednesday, where the 100-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) converged, but failed to make a daily close above this level. Once 1.0800 is confirmed as support, technical buyers may remain interested. In this scenario, 1.0840 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the latest uptrend) can be considered as temporary resistance before 1.0900 (psychological level, static level). In case 1.0800 remains resistance, 1.0760 (50% Fibonacci retracement) and 1.0730-1.0740 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 20-day SMA) can be considered Support level. Trading signals SELL EURUSD zone 1.08450-1.08650 ↠  Stoploss 1.08800 → Take Profit 1 1.08000 → Take Profit 2 1.07400 BUY EURUSD zone 1.07600-1.07400 ↠  Stoploss 1.07300 → Take Profit 1 1.08000 → Take Profit 2 1.08600
by TVS-Trader
4
Gold weakened at the beginning of the weekGold prices started the new week at a mild level and fluctuated within a range below multi-day peaks. Important US inflation data reaffirms market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates in September and again in December. This, in turn, will pull the Dollar The US dollar (USD) is off the peak reached last week and this is the main factor acting as support for the commodity. Persistent geopolitical tensions and uncertainty about the final outcome of France's shock election have provided some support for safe-haven Gold prices. Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates only once in 2024, while officials still argue in favor of keeping rates higher for longer. This lifted US Treasury yields to multi-week highs and capped the yellow metal's yield. Gold is still trading between the EMA 34 and EMA 89 of the h4 frame, showing that gold is hesitant around the 2320-2330 border. A sustained strength beyond this narrow price band has the potential to push Gold prices back to the 2344-2345 resistance area, which if overcome, would allow buyers to reclaim the $2,355 break out mark. Momentum could extend further to reclaim the 2400 key mark once last month's peak resistance of 2385 was broken. On the downside, any slippage from the tight range is likely to find some support near 2310. A convincing break below that threshold would be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and pull prices. Gold down to 2295. The round support area of ​​2300 has almost no meaning anymore to support gold price. Support: 2310-2295 Resistance: 2344-2355 Trading signals SELL GOLD 2355-2357 SL 2360 BUY GOLD 2295-2293 SL 2290
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
Gold prices fluctuate around a two-week peak☘️Fundamental analysis Firm expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in September, supported by recent weaker US macroeconomic data, dragged the US Dollar (USD) to lows strongest in more than three weeks and is said to be beneficial for the non-yielding yellow metal. Additionally, persistent geopolitical tensions, coupled with political instability in the United States and Europe, turned out to be another factor driving flows into safe-haven commodities. Traders may also refrain from placing aggressive bets and prefer to wait for the release of monthly US employment details. The widely known Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will influence market expectations about the Fed's future policy decisions. ☘️Technical analysis After a strong breakout from the 2340 resistance zone, gold is being supported by buyers. Gold is approaching the next resistance zone around 2365. Some follow-through buy orders above the $2,365 area will reaffirm the prospect of regaining the $2,400 mark. On the other hand, weakness back to the 2340 zone support, could be seen as a buying opportunity. Next is the support level near the $2,319-2,318 area, which if broken decisively could cause the Gold price to weaken further below the $2,310 mark. Support: 2349-2339-2319 Resistance: 2365-2370-2385 SELL 2365-2367 stoploss 2370 SELL 2385-2387 stoploss 2390 BUY 2339-2337 stoploss 2334 BUY 2319-2317 Stoploss 2314
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
GBPUSD July 4 analysisGBP/USD hovers around 1.2750 on UK election day GBP/USD is trading sideways near 1.2750 during the European session on Thursday. A generally weaker US dollar helped the pair maintain its upward momentum but traders did not place further bets on the British Pound as British voters went to the polls. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart has risen above 60, reflecting accumulating bullish momentum. Additionally, the last 4-hour candle closed above the 100-period Simple Moving Average. On the positive side, the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart form strong resistance near 1.2700. In case GBP/USD rises above this level and begins to use it as support, technical buyers may remain interested. In this scenario, 1.2750 (static level) and 1.2800 (static level, psychological level) can be considered as the next resistance. If GBP/USD fails to break above 1.2700, it could trigger a technical correction. The 100-day SMA links to key support at 1.2640 ahead of 1.2600 (psychological level, static level). Trading signals BUY GBPUSD zone 1.27000-1.26800 ↠  Stoploss 1.06700 → Take Profit 1 1.27500 → Take Profit 2 1.28000 SELL GBPUSD zone 1.28000-1.28200 ↠  Stoploss 1.28300 → Take Profit 1 1.27700 → Take Profit 2 1.27000
by TVS-Trader
1
Gold trades with caution above $2,350, as focus shifts to US NFP☘️Fundamental analysis Gold prices reversed initial gains to trade cautiously above $2,350 on Thursday. The continued weakness of the US dollar coupled with sluggish US Treasury yields kept gold prices restrained amid market weakness due to the US Fourth of July holiday. Gold prices traded with a slight positive trend during early European trading hours on Thursday. Gold's trading range today is relatively narrow because today is a bank holiday. Traders also seem reluctant and prefer to wait for the release of monthly employment details from the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday before positioning for the next move. a move in direction. Meanwhile, the downside for gold prices appears to have eased following solid expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin an interest rate cutting cycle later this year. Weaker US macroeconomic data released on Wednesday pointed to signs of weakness in the labor market and a weakening economy. Furthermore, the most recent FOMC meeting minutes showed that the majority of policymakers said US economic growth was gradually cooling. This led to an overnight drop in US Treasury yields and dragged the US dollar (USD) to a three-week low, which could further support gold. ☘️Technical analysis From a technical perspective, the strong breakout above the 2333 and 2344 resistance zones has pushed gold back to its 3-week high around 2365. Daily chart oscillators have begun to gain positive traction. , favoring bullish traders. 2365 Resistance Broken Some follow-through buying and sustained strength above the $2,385 area would reaffirm the prospect of a return to 2400 circular resistance. On the other hand, gold's ability to turn around is lower. The first key support zone is the break out zone of 2344. The next relevant support level is anchored near the 2333 zone, which if broken, could leave Gold prices vulnerable to further weakness below the most important mark of 2319. gold Closing candles below the 2319 area is not allowed if you want to continue your uptrend. Support: 2350 - 2344 - 2333 - 2320 Resistance: 2368 - 2385 - 2400 SELL price range 2385 - 2387 stoploss 2395 BUY price range 2345 - 2343 stoploss 2340 BUY price range 2335- 2333 stoploss 2330
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
2024-07-04 - priceactiontds - daily update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bitcoin did most of it’s drop in the Asia session and finally touched the bull trend line beginning 2023-10. It’s the do or die moment for bulls here. I do not expect this trend line to be broken on the first touch but if bulls fail, it will become a quick flush down to at least 52000 to close the bull gap. Since the drop from 72753 is now greater than 20%, we are officially in a bear market. I would then count this move from 72000 to here as the first leg of this bear trend, where a measured move would bring us right to 40000, which is the target I have been writing about for more than 4 months. current market cycle: trading range until clear break below 56000. Smaller bear trend did indeed accelerate and bulls are fighting for 56000 and the trading range. key levels: 56000 - 63000 small range / 56000 - 74000 (big range) bull case: Bulls desperately need to keep it above 56000 or 52000 will come very fast. This is the last stand here or we will see much lower prices much faster. We are now inside the triangle from the big bull and big bear trend line and I expect bulls to be able to hold it inside this triangle for the next 2-4 days at least. Honestly not having more for the bulls here. Invalidation is below 56000. bear case: Bears just selling this relentlessly now with huge spikes. Today we got another 3% move in 1h in the Asia session. Market found a decent amount of buyers at the big bull trend line and I don’t expect bears to fight this until we saw some decent bounce and sideways movement inside the triangle. Bears kinda losing the 1h 20ema momentum currently, which would give the bulls some more arguments to get back to 60000 but bears would need to keep it below that price or risk bull momentum to 62000. For now the 2 green two legged corrections are my best guess on how the bounce could play out. Invalidation is above 62000. short term: Expecting a bounce here but full bear mode once it fails. medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 1-3 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged since March current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Could expect follow through after the 2000 point bear bar. So once the bounce failed, shorts were in order but you had to get out once the 1h bars formed big tails below right at the bull trend line. If you enjoy my writings, please leave a boost or follow. Thank you and I wish your trading to be profitable.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by priceactiontds
2024-07-04 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. dax comment: Uneventful trading was expect, since US holidays mostly go sideways in a tight trading range. Market had a good spike at the open which had to be faded and that was the trade of the day. Other than that, market is oscillating around 18600, which is 25 points above the open of the week/month. It’s do or die for both sides here. If bulls can break above 18630, 18900 comes in play. If bears win it, we could have a nasty reversal and will be on our way to 18000 again. I still think the bears trend line could be in play, if bears trade below it early tomorrow. If not, successful breakout above and odds will favor the bulls. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 18200 - 18600 bull case: Bulls want to break above 18600 and out of the triangle. If they manage that, bears will likely give up and market is free to trade 18800 or 19000 again. —unchanged Invalidation is below 18500. bear case: Bears need to prevent prices above 18630 and break outside of this tight bull wedge. Dax is in a trading range for 6 months and betting on a continuation of it, is far more profitable in the long run than betting on breakouts. R:R here is on the bears side but I would not think about shorts above 18500. So bears see an expanding triangle, a bigger triangle and a small bull trend that already had 3 pushes up. If they can’t turn it here, we will probably melt to 19000 like nasdaq did today. Since we are currently seeing a funny rotation between the markets, absolutely possible that liquidity will be shoved into Dax tomorrow for a breakout. Update: Since text above is still valid, I did not change it. Invalidation is above 18630. short term: Can’t be bearish after 2 strong bull days but I sure won’t be bullish at multiple resistances. I wait for strong buying/selling and follow the market. Can absolutely see this breaking to either side tomorrow. What I don’t expect is market to stall above 18500. Either down or up. —unchanged medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Just don’t trade on these days unless you are 9/10 days in tight trading ranges profitable. If you enjoy my writings, please leave a boost or follow. Thank you and I wish your trading to be profitable.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
GBP/USD : Key Levels and Trading Strategies for Upcoming Moves📅 Let's get into today's analysis. I've decided to focus more on Forex analyses, and today we're analyzing the GBP/USD pair with the main timeframe being weekly. I'll be looking at the chart solely from a technical analysis perspective. 🔍 In the weekly timeframe, as you can see, after breaking the 1.31915 resistance level, bullish momentum entered the market, and we managed to move up to the 1.42385 resistance level. After this sharp upward movement, the market entered a correction phase and corrected down to 1.20670. Currently, the price is ranging between the 0.382 Fibonacci level and the 1.31915 resistance. I believe that until the SMA99 reaches the price, new bullish momentum could enter the market, and you can confirm this momentum by a break above 1.31915. If the candle closes below the 0.382 Fibonacci level, we might move down to the Golden Zone of Fibonacci, which lies between 0.5 and 0.618. 🧩 There is also a minor trend line that the price has reacted to three times so far, which could be a key determinant for future price movements. 🧲 Regarding the SMA99, it has the property of creating significant distances when the market is trending. However, it eventually acts like a black hole, pulling the price towards it. This is happening after the rejection at 1.42385, and I believe the price will range until it meets the SMA99. Additionally, this SMA acts as a support and resistance level, potentially supporting the price once it reaches it and pushing the price upward. 📈 For a long position on the weekly timeframe, it seems appropriate to wait for a break of the trend line and a confirmation above the 1.31915 area. The target for this move, based on Fibonacci extension, could be 1.42385. However, this target is quite high, and if the price aims to reach it, it will likely be a long-term move. 📉 For a short position, breaking below 1.20670 serves as a good trigger. If the price stabilizes below this level, it might move down to the area between 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci levels. This position is quite risky as the High Wave Cycle for GBP/USD is bullish, and this move in the Low Wave Cycle could be filled with noise. 📈 For shorter-term positions, it's better to look at the 4-hour timeframe. In this timeframe, we have a long-term range box and a significant support area at the 0.382 Fibonacci level on the weekly chart. There’s no need to extend the analysis here; I’ll just discuss the entry triggers. 📈 For long positions, we have three different triggers. The first trigger is at 1.2776, which is the riskiest one with a target of 1.31915. The next trigger is at 1.31915 with a target of 1.42385. The final trigger is at 1.42385. 📉 For short positions, there's a very risky position with a trigger at 1.2615, and the second trigger is the break of the support area. ♟ Now, let me explain how I personally trade with each trigger. For the long trigger at 1.2776, I open positions in lower timeframes such as the 1-hour chart and set a small stop loss to quickly reach a risk-reward ratio of 2, which is my first target, with minimal risk. For the 1.31915 trigger, I open a position with normal risk and a regular stop loss size. For the 1.42385 trigger, I open a position with a larger stop loss because the trigger is at an all-time high (ATH) and represents a very strong supply zone. For short positions, I do not open any until the price stabilizes below the support area. 📝 In summary, GBP/USD is currently in a ranging phase between the 0.382 Fibonacci level and the 1.31915 resistance level. Depending on the break above 1.31915 or below 1.20670, there are opportunities for long or short positions, respectively. For those trading in shorter timeframes, key entry triggers and careful risk management are essential to navigate the market effectively. 🧠💼 Always remember the inherent risks in Forex trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Stick to strict capital management principles and use stop-loss orders, ensuring an initial target with a risk-to-reward ratio of 2. 🫶 If you found this analysis helpful and want to support me, please boost this analysis. Feel free to leave a comment or suggest a pair you'd like me to analyze next.
by itsparham96
5
KAVA PRICE ACTION TRADINGToday i will try to explain how to play with Kava in a simple way. - Remember always that in Cryptos are not easy as forex or stocks, because movements are always brutal. - The first step is always to detect the real trendline. - Detect 3 points. Bouncing Points, Rejection Points. - Some traders use only 2 points, but i am old style trader, so i really need 3 Points to Draw the trend. - Remove the abnormality ( FOMO and PANIC ) - Draw your line. - Now you will need to find PRICE ACTION AREAS. - Those areas can be easily detected by the price fluctuating for a long period of time in the same zone. - For KAVA right now we are fluctuating between $0.75-$1.25$ ( Price action zone 2) - Now you can draw your price action lines. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- METHOD 1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - So to enter a position you need to understand that you never know if you are right, or if you are wrong. anyone have a magic ball. - The best way is to NEVER GO ALL IN. - Keep always more juice to rebuy if the market crash. - For exemple, you could try to enter KAVA Market at 0.75$ (invest 25%), in case of DIP to 0.5$ (re-inject 75%) ( this is very important!!) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- METHOD 2 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Simple wait to see if KAVA will break out the Trendline - in that case you will need to wait the price to break out from triangle (Yellow Triangle) - Again never go all in, on a breakout, some breakout could be fakes. - Keep always Juice. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - More you will understand and detect price movements, supports, resistances, breakouts, more you will trade better. - Price action and trendline are the basic of trading. - indicators are complementary. PS : This method can also be applied by Shorting the market. ( just inverse everything ). - Happy Tr4Ding !
KRAKEN:KAVAUSDLong
by thecryer
14