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TRENDLINE RESISTANCE / SMC MODULEIn this analysis we are focusing on (2H) time frame for XAUUSD. Here we are using trendline resistance with the combination of SMC concept. As we know bears potential is very strong. But I'm expecting that market price first come upward at least 2420.00 - 2432.00. and then price give rejection according to concept then we will execute sell trade here and the target is set at least demand OB. So waiting and patience is the best option than loosing. Wait for your level wait for rejection Always use proper money management and risk to reward ratio. # GOLD (2H) Technical Analyze Expected Move.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TradeTacticsreal
SMC / ICT MODULEIn this analysis we are focusing on (4H) time frame for XAUUSD. Here we are using SMC / ICT concept strategy with combination of price action as we know bearish momentum is strong and also price break the breaker OB. Now we are looking at the support zone for buying opportunity. In this analyze we have two conditions if price come to the support are and reject it then after confirmation we will open buy position but if price break our support area then we will wait and after retracement we will open sell trade and the target is set at 2330. According to the SMC/ICT strategy when price sweep all the sell side liquidity then price will further move in the direction of the trend , but here price moves downside without taking any pullback or inducement. I'm looking for buy today let's see what happens and how price will act after entering into the support area. let's delve deeper into these levels and potential outcomes. This is just my analysis or prediction. # GOLD (4H) Technical Analyze Expected Move.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TradeTacticsreal
1
2024-08-26 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Morning and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - Breakout above happened as written in my weekly update. Only looking for longs now. Want 79 and then 80 before I expect a more complex pullback. quote from my weekly update: short term: Bullish above 75.1, bearish below 74 for retest of 72 or lower. comment : Bulls just continued on Monday and my 75.1 target was easily passed through. That trade was good for 200+, hope you made some. We are now at a minor bear trend line around 77.6 and I’d be surprised if we can just melt through that as well. The 1h ema was not touched once since Thursday’s US session. Very strong move by the bulls and decent chances we see 79 this morning. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 75 - 79 bull case: Bulls did what I expected in my weekly outlook and their next targets above are 79 and then 80. I do think 80 can happen today or tomorrow. If bulls can break above current August high 78.99, bears will probably step aside enough for 80 to come fast. Invalidation is below 76. bear case: Bears did not want to fight this after their leg down and market move’s freely higher without any fight. News weren’t on their side either yesterday. Where could we expect a bigger pullback? 78 is a big maybe. 79/80 is where I expect it more but do not look for any fades until bears closed a bear below the 1h ema. You would be trying to short a strong bull trend and that’s mostly gambling. Invalidation is above 78. short term: Bullish for 78 and most likely 79/80 as long as we stay above the 1h 20ema. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again. Update: If we break below 70.67, the triangle is dead and we need to find new support. Will update this again when it happens. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Longing the breakout above 75.1 as I wrote in my weekly update. Was good for 200+.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
2024-08-26 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Morning and I hope you are well. No update yesterday after hours since I was so sick I just had to sleep. That was the first miss since almost a year ago or 202 publishes if you will. Update would not have been any different since Globex did not move anything much. tl;dr Indexes - Most markets moved sideways so I will not pretend there is much value to extract out of the price action. We will have a bigger breakout soon and I have absolutely no idea to which side since I am not a fortune teller or a social media jack who posts pictures with a Lambo. They seem to be very sure of every move the market makes. You decide which is more reasonable. dax futures comment: Market is staying above 18600 but 18700 is resistance. Will probably see a breakout today or tomorrow. No deeper meaning in this sideways chop. I lean slightly bearish to get below 18600 again. current market cycle: huge trading range key levels: 17000 - 19000 bull case: Bulls are too weak to push above 18700 but keeping it above 18600 makes the market completely neutral. Bulls want to stay inside the bull channel which leads to 19000. Not much more to it. Play the range. Invalidation is below 18600. bear case: Bears also too weak to get below 18600 and currently the 1h 20ema is big support. Bears need a strong close below 18600 to have any argument on their side. Invalidation is above 18720. short term: Overall more bullish than bearish but the 100 point range is as neutral as it gets. I scalp and wait for the breakout. medium-long term: 17000/17100 was my target for at least 3 months now and bears got it. We are in a correction since we dropped more than 10% from the ath. Many long term trader buy a 5%, 10%, … dip and a bounce here was expected. I do think we are in a bear trend which will most likely lead down to 15600 or 15000 over the next months but we can only be more certain, once this pullback is done and we make new lows below 17000 and have a channel from which we can calculate new targets. I called the highs in early July and there is a decent chance we will not see them for a long time. —unchanged since early July current swing trade: Nope. trade of the day: Buying near 18600 since it was support many many times.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
PARALLEL CHANNEL MODULEIn this analysis we are focusing on (1H) time frame for XAUUSD. Here we are using parallel channel strategy. As we know that market trend was bullish. price break the parallel channel toward downside and create a support at 2410.00 key level. Now I'm looking for sell when price come at least near to the OB key levels. But without any confirmation we could not take any step. Let's delve deeper into these levels and potential out comes. Always use stoploss for your trade. #GOLD 1H Technical Analysis Expected Move.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TradeTacticsreal
SMC / LIQUIDITY GRAB MODULEIn this analysis we are focusing on (1H) time frame for XAUUSD. Here we are using SMC concept or liquidity grab strategy for identifying upcoming moves. As we know Bullish momentum is very strong. Today I'm looking for sell opportunity. If price reject our supply OB then we are going for sell but if price break the supply OB toward upside then we will wait when price come back and retest our supply OB again after retracement we will take further step. Let's delve deeper into these levels and potential outcomes. Always use stoploss for your trades. # GOLD (1H) Technical Analyze Expected Move. SUPPLY OB KEY LEVELS: (2416.00 - 2420.00) ------------------------------------------------------- DEMAND OB KEY LEVELS: (2394.00 - 2389.00)
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TradeTacticsreal
3
USOIL AnalysisOil prices have surged on Monday, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and potential disruptions in Libyan oil production. The recent uptick in violence between Israel and Hezbollah, coupled with ongoing drone attacks and bombings, has severely diminished the prospects of a Gaza ceasefire deal, pushing oil prices higher. Adding fuel to the fire, Libya is facing a significant disruption in oil production due to an internal political conflict between rival governments vying for control over the central bank. The sudden halt in production exacerbates supply concerns, contributing to the sharp rise in oil prices. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is struggling after a poor performance last week, influenced by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's confirmation of an impending interest rate cut in September. However, markets may be overestimating the scale and pace of these cuts, which could have broader implications for the oil market if expectations are not met. Technical Analysis Oil is currently in a strong position at the start of the week. Despite fears of a sell-off from hedge funds, oil prices have rallied, potentially inviting more bullish positioning. The violence in the Middle East raises doubts about the feasibility of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, and any further escalation could drive prices even higher. On the technical front, WTI Crude Oil is trading around $77.07, while Brent Crude is at $80.44. A key resistance level is at $77.65, which aligns with both a descending trendline and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). A break above this level could see the 100-day SMA at $78.45 act as another potential rejection point. On the downside, support remains at $71.17, the low from August 5, which has provided a base for the current rebound. Should prices fall below $70.00, the next significant support levels to watch are $68.00 and $67.11, the latter being the lowest point from the triple bottom formation seen in June 2023.
TVC:USOILShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Gold Price Analysis August 26☘️Fundamental Analysis Gold prices traded above the 2520 resistance level after the European session. The gains came amid growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will start lowering borrowing costs in September. Lower interest rates are generally positive for Gold as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets. Furthermore, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and economic uncertainty are likely to boost safe-haven demand, benefiting Gold prices. On the other hand, sluggish demand in the Chinese economy could weaken the yellow metal as China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of gold. Later on Monday, US Durable Goods Orders for July are due. The highlight of the week will be the US Preliminary Annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for July, which will be released on Thursday and Friday. ☘️Technical Analysis: With the current price increase, the technical structure has tilted to the upside. We will wait for the H1 candle to close above the 2520 port to confirm that gold will continue to move straight to the resistance zone of 2530. And in the US trading session, gold can completely create a new ATH. Retracement hooks are relatively unlikely at the moment. When the distance to 2509, the Asian session bottom this morning encountered quite a few barriers. The important technical support hook today will be 2495 to ensure the current market structure. Resistance: 2525 - 2535 - 2547 - 2558 - 2568 - 2590 Support: 2509 - 2500 - 2494 - 2485 - 2472 - 2461 - 2454 - 2442 SELL zone 2528 - 2530 stoploss 2534 BUY zone 2496 - 2494 stoploss 2490
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
XAU/USD Above $2,500, But Is a Drop Coming?The gold price (XAU/USD) has maintained a solid position above the psychological support level of $2,500 at the start of the week. This increase is supported by growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve will begin lowering borrowing costs in September. From a short-term technical perspective, the gold price still suggests upside risks, especially if buyers maintain control above the triangle support, which was previously resistance, at $2,470. Technical Analysis The gold price recently confirmed a bullish breakout from a symmetrical triangle, indicating further gains. Gold buyers need to reclaim the all-time high of $2,532 to face the next key barrier at $2,600. If the gold price fails to sustain current levels, a correction could occur towards the $2,500 threshold. A sustained break below $2,485 would expose the market to further declines, down to the critical support at $2,470. Fundamental Factors The positive tone surrounding the gold price is mainly attributed to the sustained weakness of the US dollar and negative US Treasury yields, following dovish remarks by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Powell clearly confirmed that the Fed's easing cycle will begin in September, signaling a possible rate reduction. The market currently sees a 38% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut and a 62% probability of a 25 basis point cut, as indicated by the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. In a low-interest-rate environment, gold, which does not yield interest, tends to benefit. Additionally, the precious metal, considered a safe haven, is capitalizing on escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly after Israel's preemptive airstrike on Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and the lack of an agreement in ceasefire talks in Cairo. Future Outlook With the support of favorable fundamental factors and a technical setup that favors buyers, the gold price remains exposed to upside risks. The next significant move could be driven by the US Durable Goods Orders data, expected later on Monday.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
Bitcoin respecting the 2 key moves very well ! This week, the price performed very well according to the analysis we did last week. The two key levels have been taking a very positive effect for Bitcoin's next surge. As we can see in the chart, Bitcoin broke through our inefficiency zone with great strength, creating a volumetric bullish candle. This is a very positive pattern, as in the last two days, it has remained in the key confirmation zone which I mentioned in my last Bitcoin analysis. As we can see, Bitcoin is still in a range, but it is recovering little by little. The best part is that Bitcoin is following the exact movement we have been predicting since we started this analysis several weeks ago. Looking at volume, buying pressure, and the overall structure, starting Monday, we could see Bitcoin make a strong bullish move. But note this: the price has not yet broken through my confirmation zone #2 or the green zone, so it could stay there for a few days before we see a strong upward trend. Best regards, and thank you for supporting my analysis, we are doing very well!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by RocketMike111
#202435 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr bitcoin: I was neutral last week and until Friday that was perfectly fine. Bulls just used the overall market strength to break above and finally closed above 62000 again. They closed the bear gap which was the only good argument the bears had left. Market is free to test 68000 or higher. Bears would need a strong reversal and trade below 60200 for this to stop. Bullish. Quote from last week: comment : I am not making stuff up here now. Market is also neutral as can be. Last week was 58700 and now we are at 59700. Tails above and below bars and bulls still could not close one day above the daily ema. Wait for a breakout. comment : I still think the pattern last week was bearish enough but the reversal by the bulls just stronger. Surprised me but that’s why I give clear invalidation prices. Losing is part of the game, get good at it. Bulls are now favored to trade higher and potential targets are first 66000 and then 68000. Bears would need a pullback below 60200 for this to fail. I do expect a pullback first before higher prices but I don’t think bears can get below 62000. Only if many other markets also puke. current market cycle: Trading Range key levels: 60000 - 68000 bull case: Bulls strongly broke above 62000 and closed the bear gap. They are now in control since they also stayed at the highs. 66000 and then 68000 are my first targets. Any pullback should stay above 62000. Will only buy this on a pullback and not above 63000. Invalidation is below 60200. bear case: Bears had a decent breakout last week but fumbled it. Bears can be happy if they can keep the market below 65000 and go sideways. The next bigger resistance is the bear trend line from the ath at 69000. Invalidation is above 56000. outlook last week: short term: Full bear mode again after the pullback. Want to see 50000 again and a daily close around it. → Last Sunday we traded around 59700 and now we are at 64200. Wrong outlook. I think it was a surprise by the bulls but it does not matter. Bulls are favored for more upside now. short term: Can only be bullish after the breakout with follow through. 68000 is a decent target but I want a pullback first. medium-long term: I have been writing about getting down to 50000 for many many weeks now and since we are only 3500 points above it, it’s time to review my medium-long term take. I do think we are doing a very similar thing to 2021. Market will probably touch the monthly 20ema at 46000 soon and then go for a dead cat bounce. I do not think market can do a higher high again. For me it’s lower highs from here on and highest I think it can get again is 65000 but I do think there is a good chance, 63000 may be all bulls can get again. If it trades strongly below 46000, probably 30000 soon after but let’s make 46000 first and then I reevaluate my take. Update: Above was written 2024-08-04. As good as it gets. Next target is 40000. —unchanged since July current swing trade: None. chart update: Removed the bear gap and added bull trend lines.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by priceactiontds
2
#202435 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: Bears answered last weeks question on Monday but bulls kept the market two sided and bears gave up at the double bottom below 72. Bulls are creating decent bull bars again and last time they did this we went above 78. Above 75 odds favor the bulls for more upside to at least 77 but we are still low enough for bears to come around and test 72 again. Leaning bullish if market stays above 74. Quote from last week: comment : Bull and bear legs alike get shorter, market is contracting further. Triangle is valid since 2022. We are in the last weeks of it. If we get a huge event where we see Oil prices skyrocketing over the next 3-4 months, you read it here first. Play the range is the name of the game. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 70-80 bull case: Bulls printed a nice double bottom around 71 and are on their way up again. They want at least 77.5 and test the minor bear trend line starting from 2024-07-18. The last two reversal from prices below 72 both went without any pullback on the daily chart so I expect this one to just go up as well. No side is currently fighting the other too much. Invalidation is below 75. bear case: Bears got their early move below 74 and just went for 72 again. No bigger fight for 72 so bulls are doing the reversal again. There is a low chance that bears come around and want to keep it below the daily ema at 75 but i doubt it. If they do, best they can hope for is a test of 71.5 again. Above 75.1 I expect an easy and fast trade up to at least 77. Invalidation is above 75.1. outlook last week: short term: Neutral. Again. What can you do. → Last Sunday we traded 75.54 and now we are at 74.83. Low of the week was 71.47 and my target was 71/72. Hope you made some. short term: Bullish above 75.1, bearish below 74 for retest of 72 or lower. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 70 and 80. No more updates until market makes higher highs or lower lows again. current swing trade: None chart update: None
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
1
#202435 - priceactiontds - weekly updateGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold: Bulls bought the first pullback and I expect bears to try again. Market went sideways which shows strength by the bulls to keep it above 2500. Next week will be important because so far the highest monthly close was 2472 and a monthly close above 2500 would confirm the breakout again. Bears need consecutive bear bars below 2500 and bulls a daily close above 2550. Neutral going into next week. Quote from last week: comment: Bulls got a new ath but the highest monthly close so far was 2473 and there is no reason to expect a huge breakout above 2550 with follow through. If it happens, hopp along but odds favor the bears for another reversal like so many times in the last 4 months. No matter how you interpret the patterns on the chart, all favor a reversal and betting on a breakout after 4 months of trading range price action is a losing strategy in the long run. I am neutral and wait for bears to show strength but will join the bulls on a strong breakout above 2550. comment : Did we learn anything from a sideways week? We have a bullish pattern and a technical textbook pullback a bit above the ema. Bulls bought it and that is bullish. But only a break above 2570 is confirmation. Resistance is always that until it breaks, no matter how strong you think the trend is/looks/feels and this trend inside a 5 month trading range is not strong so far. Bulls are trying the breakout and the monthly close will be the most important for them. If they manage their first close above 2500, it would be a confirmation and buy signal going into September. What could be a potential target above? Since the trading range was mostly between 2300 - 2500ish, we can do a measured move up and that would bring us to the ballpark around 2700. current market cycle: trading range for many months now and it’s probably coming to an end over the next weeks/months —unchanged key levels: 2400 - 2550 bull case: Bulls raised their odds of this breakout being real last week. Next week is their do or die moment for this. It’s either break above 2550 and get a daily close above or fail again and trade back down to the lower bull wedge or even 2300. I do think 2540-2570 is a dead zone for trading long. If we get near 2520-2530 I consider buying but not above. Odds currently favor the bulls slightly. Invalidation is below 2500. bear case: Nothing changed for the bears. Either stop the bulls below 2570 or give up for 2600 and potentially 2700 over the next weeks. Bears need a 1h close below 2500 badly. That’s it. If you are short Gold right now, don’t come to me hoping for bear porn. I’m long past that phase in Gold. Do I still think this is overvalued and can crash below 2000 again? Bet. Will this save your underwater shorts? Hell naw. Get out now or latest at 2571. Invalidation is above 2571. outlook last week: short term: Neutral until bears come around or strong break above 2550. If bears build good selling pressure, I want a retest of 2500 first and lower i look for 2470. → Last Sunday we traded 2537 and now we are at 2546. Bulls got above 2550 but big rejections only. Neutral outlook was perfect since we closed 9 points above last week. short term: Exactly the same as last week. Bears had a pullback and bulls bought it. Inherently bullish but only if bulls can break above 2570. Neutral until bears come around or strong break above 2570. If bears build good selling pressure, I want a retest of 2500 first and lower i look for 2470. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged since May current swing trade: None. chart update: Added bull wedge trend line and measured move target #1.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds