31.03.25 Morning ForecastPairs on Watch -
FX:EURUSD
FX:GBPJPY
A short overview of the instruments I am looking at for today, multi-timeframe analysis down to what I will be looking at for an entry. Enjoy!
Priceaction
#202513 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Textbook breakout below the bear flag and market is likely on it’s way testing previous lows below 80000. My target 75000 or even 70000 remain the same. What would bulls need to stop this? I highly doubt they can produce a bull surprise above 90000, so if they would go sideways above 80000 for the next 1-3 days, it could have been enough to stop the selling and keep the trading range 80000 - 89000 alive for some more.
current market cycle: bear trend
key levels: 70k - 90k
bull case: Only chance for bulls I see here is going sideways and stopping the selling above 80000. Otherwise I don’t have anything for them. They have touched the bear trend line 3 times now and failed.
Did not change much to last week since market has not invalidated anything of it.
Invalidation is below 70k.
bear case: Bears need to close the bull gap down to 73800, no ifs or buts. If they do not create better selling pressure next week and close a daily bar below 80k, market has likely turned more neutral again and both sides have equal odds of the next impulse.
Invalidation is above 94k.
short term: Neutral. Need strong selling momentum again for me to join this.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-02-23: 75000 is still my biggest target for 2025. It’s happening. 70k/75k and then I expect a bigger bounce first. Then we will see if we can go lower or not. For now it’s very low probability that the big bull trend line from 2023-10 breaks anytime soon.
current swing trade: Short since 85000. Stop is 89000 no matter where you go short here.
chart update: Removed one minor broken bear trend line.
#202513 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bulls continued and surprised a bit with the follow-through. 3 consecutive bullish weeks now and market has touched 70 multiple times. 70-72 is my neutral target while leaning bullish below 68. Volume is atrocious but market is free to do whatever. Could see a retest of 66 as well as going higher for 72. Absolutely no opinion on this or interest in trading, other than small scalps. Look at the weekly tf and tell me how obvious everything is, be my guest.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 65 - 72
bull case: Bulls produce decent tails below daily bars and keeping the market above the daily 20ema and 69. Right now they have taken somewhat control of the market after many weeks of selling, likely due to bears being exhausted. Only a daily close above 70 would change my assessment though. Sideways is more likely for me and I have no bigger interest in buying at 70 when it could be the high of a potential trading range 65 - 70.
Invalidation is below 65.
bear case: Bears sold the market relentlessly for 2 months straight and do seem exhausted. Right now they want to keep 70 resistance and since this is the first decent bounce the bulls got, the odds of this going much further up are low. It’s still a bear flag on the weekly tf and a retest of 65/66 is possible. Daily close below 68 would make me look for shorts for 100-200 ticks lower but that’s about it.
Invalidation is above 71.
short term: Neutral around 70. Bulls need a daily close above and bears something below 68 again.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-02-23: Bear trend is getting weaker but I still see this going sideways around 70 instead of a range expansion.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Removed last bear trend line, market is neutral at 70.
#202513 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaq e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Last week I wrote that we need a proper channel down and the past week was the worst case scenario for the bulls. We could not even get to the 50% retracement and turned down violently again. There is a small chance for the bulls to make this a double bottom and go sideways but as of now that is very very low probability. More likely is that we have formed the top of the channel and will get a big second leg down to 18000 or lower. If we go down below 19000, my thesis is that we go down for 2 more weeks and then earnings will decide on the next impulse. For now the technicals are clear, market could not even retrace 50%, we turned around the daily 20ema and volume on the down move is picking up again. Everything points to a bear trend.
current market cycle: strong bear trend
key levels: 19000 - 20500
bull case: Bulls running for the exits. They have some previous support at the 2024-09 low 19073 but that is most likely not stopping this freight train down. Next big support is at 18000/18100 which is my W3 target. Only question now is if we find buyers tomorrow who want to keep the market above 19000. It’s not impossible that we could see 1-2 more days of stalling around 19000 but given the current structure the selling is just too strong to look for any longs.
Invalidation is below 19000.
bear case: Bears have now erased about a year of gains and we are heading lower. Friday was another strong sell signal and bears now want to close the monthly bar at the very low to also produce a huge sell signal on the weekly and monthly charts. The selling is strong enough for at least a decent sized second leg and the measured move leads to 16200 which is between my year-end-special target of 17500 and the bull trend line from the covid lows. Plan for the next 2 weeks is the W3 and W4 where I expect W3 to hit 18000 and W4 could retest 19000.
Invalidation is above 20600.
short term: Clear bear trend now once we drop below 19000. W3 should get us to around 18000 while W4 could be good for a retest of 19000. No longs for me what so ever. Big bear trend line from 22450 has to hold.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-03-16: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. Clear W1 of this bear trend. Market now has to close below 19000 to confirm W3. Depending on how deep W3 goes, W5 will either reach only around 17500 or the bull trend line around 16000.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added most likely upper bear trend line and adjusted the 5-wave series.
#202513 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futures
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: First 3 trading days of the week bulls tried to break above and failed at every higher high, printing an expanding triangle, which broke to the downside on Thursday. Outlook is tough. I want to lean bearish but there is still bigger buying coming through at new lows and betting on the bear breakout is just not a good trade.
current market cycle: trading range - bull trend line is broken and market has failed to make new highs 2 times on the daily chart.
key levels: 22000 - 23746
bull case: Bulls see it as a trading range at the highs and want to continue sideways until the next impulse could bring them higher again. They prevented the market from making lower lows, which is the only objective now. Once market makes new lows below 22400, the bulls know that the next support is likely the trend line around 22000, which is also the open gap close. I don’t have much else for the bulls. Narrative wise it should have made higher highs already and technically this market has turned neutral again.
Invalidation is below 22400.
bear case: Bears have plenty of arguments now to make lower lows and test down to 22000. If they fail again at a lower low, bears have to give up and let bulls take control again. We have a big open bear gap between 22900 and 23078. Bears have to keep this open and stay below the 4h 20ema if they want lower lows. They can even argue an ugly head & shoulders top and the measured move down would bring us to exactly 21000. If bulls would have been stronger, we would have made higher highs by now. We have seen enough strong rejections above 23000, volume has picked up significantly and US markets are falling like dead fish. Now or never for bears or we go higher.
Invalidation is above 23000.
short term: Neutral but bear at heart. I just won’t bet on the breakout but rather want to see it happen and only join after a retest broke down again. Previous support is too big to ignore and bears have not done enough for me to be more confident about them. Below 22500 the odds go up significantly for the bears and bulls need to recover 22900+ for more upside or at least going sideways instead of down.
medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Germany takes on huge amount of new debt. Dax is rallying hard and broke above multi-year bull trends. This buying is as real as it gets, as unlikely as it is. Market is as expensive as it was during the .com bubble but here we are and marking is pointing up. Clear bull channel and until it’s broken, I can not pound my chest and scream for lower prices. Price is truth. Is the selling around 23000 strong enough that we could form a top? Yes. We have wild 1000 point swings in both directions. Look at the weekly chart. Last time we had this volatility was 2024-07 and volume then was still much lower. We are seeing a shift from US equities to European ones and until market closes consecutive daily bars below 22000, we can’t expecting anything but sideways to up movement.
current swing trade: Will join the bears below 22500 on good momentum for 22000 or lower.
chart update: Bull trend line is gone and added bear gap
EUR/GBP Bullish Breakout from Falling Wedge – Buy Setup!Introduction
This EUR/GBP 4-hour chart analysis presents a high-probability bullish trading setup based on a falling wedge breakout. A falling wedge is a reliable bullish reversal pattern, signaling that selling pressure is fading, and buyers are regaining control. The price has now broken out of the wedge, confirming potential upside momentum.
This setup provides a well-defined entry, stop-loss, and target level, allowing traders to capitalize on the bullish breakout while maintaining a proper risk management strategy.
1. Chart Pattern: Falling Wedge (Bullish Reversal)
The primary pattern on the chart is a falling wedge, which is a bullish reversal pattern that forms after a downtrend. It is characterized by converging downward-sloping trendlines, indicating that sellers are gradually losing momentum.
🔹 Key Characteristics of the Falling Wedge Pattern:
Lower highs & lower lows within a narrowing price range.
Decreasing selling pressure, indicating a potential shift in trend.
A bullish breakout above the upper trendline confirms a reversal.
Typically followed by a strong price surge, aiming for previous resistance levels.
The price action confirms this pattern as it broke above the wedge's upper boundary, signaling the start of a bullish trend.
2. Key Technical Levels & Market Structure
🔹 Resistance Level (Target) – 0.84183
This level marks a previous strong resistance zone, where the price faced rejection multiple times.
It serves as the primary profit-taking area for this setup.
A successful breakout and close above this level could lead to further upside movement.
🔹 Support Level – 0.83154
This is the major demand zone where price previously bounced.
Strong buying pressure emerged at this level, leading to the recent breakout.
It serves as an important level to define risk and set stop-loss orders.
🔹 Stop-Loss Placement – Below 0.83154
A stop-loss is placed slightly below the support zone, ensuring a logical exit if the market reverses.
This prevents unnecessary losses while allowing room for normal price fluctuations.
🔹 Entry Point Consideration
Ideal entry: Around 0.83700, just after the breakout confirmation.
Confirmation: A strong bullish candle closing above the wedge.
3. Trade Execution Plan: Long Setup
📌 Trade Idea – Bullish Setup
📈 Buy Entry: 0.83600 – 0.83700 (After wedge breakout)
🎯 Target: 0.84183 (Major resistance level)
❌ Stop-Loss: 0.83154 (Below support level)
🔄 Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR): ~1:1
📊 Risk Management Strategy
Trade with discipline: Never risk more than 1-2% of your capital per trade.
Adjust position size: Based on risk tolerance and account balance.
Use trailing stops: To secure profits if price continues upward.
4. Market Sentiment & Price Action Analysis
Prior Uptrend: The price previously had a strong bullish rally, indicating overall bullish strength.
Corrective Move: The market entered a falling wedge correction, allowing for a healthy pullback before resuming the trend.
Breakout Confirmation: The breakout above the wedge's upper trendline confirms bullish momentum.
📊 Factors Supporting a Bullish Move:
✅ Breakout confirmation above the wedge pattern.
✅ Higher buying volume supporting the move.
✅ Support level holds strong, preventing further downside.
5. Trading Psychology & Risk Considerations
⚠️ Key Considerations Before Entering the Trade:
✔ Wait for confirmation – Ensure a strong breakout candle before entering.
✔ Avoid chasing the price – Enter at a reasonable pullback level post-breakout.
✔ Monitor economic events – Watch for news that could impact EUR/GBP volatility.
✔ Follow a strict risk-reward ratio – Stick to your predefined stop-loss and target.
6. Conclusion – Bullish Outlook
This falling wedge breakout on EUR/GBP suggests a bullish reversal, offering a high-probability long trade setup. The price is expected to move towards the 0.84183 resistance level, with 0.83154 as the key stop-loss level.
✅ Bias: Bullish
🎯 Target: 0.84183
❌ Stop Loss: 0.83154
📊 Risk-to-Reward: ~1:1
📌 TradingView Idea Title & Description
Title:
🚀 EUR/GBP Falling Wedge Breakout – Bullish Move Incoming!
Description:
📈 Bullish breakout confirmed! EUR/GBP has broken out of a falling wedge, signaling a trend reversal. A long position above 0.83600 targets the 0.84183 resistance level with a stop-loss at 0.83154. Watch for strong bullish momentum! 📊💹
💡 Risk Management: Stick to your stop-loss, and don’t chase price action. Manage your trade wisely! 🔥
EUR/USD Double Top Analysis - Bearish Reversal Trade Setup This analysis highlights a Double Top pattern forming on the EUR/USD 4-hour timeframe, which is a classic bearish reversal pattern. The pattern signals a potential shift from a bullish trend to a downtrend, providing traders with a well-defined entry, stop loss, and target levels.
1. Understanding the Double Top Pattern
A Double Top is a trend reversal pattern that forms after an extended uptrend. It consists of two peaks (Top 1 and Top 2) at approximately the same resistance level, followed by a break below the neckline (support level), confirming the pattern.
Pattern Breakdown:
Top 1 & Top 2: These peaks represent failed attempts to break higher, showing strong selling pressure at resistance.
Support (Neckline): The price found support at a key level, where buyers initially stepped in, but eventually, this level was broken, triggering a potential downtrend.
2. Key Levels & Trading Setup
📌 Resistance Level (Bearish Rejection Zone)
The resistance level is marked in the 1.09500 - 1.09600 range.
Price action tested this zone twice (Top 1 & Top 2) but failed to sustain above it.
The repeated rejection indicates that sellers are dominant in this zone.
📌 Support Level (Neckline Breakout Confirmation)
The support level is marked in the 1.07700 - 1.07800 zone.
The price bounced off this area initially, but later broke below it, confirming a bearish move.
The breakout suggests selling momentum is increasing.
3. Trading Strategy – Bearish Setup
🔴 Entry Point (Sell Trigger)
A short trade is confirmed when the price breaks below the neckline (support level) after forming the Double Top.
The breakout confirms seller dominance and signals potential downside movement.
🚨 Stop Loss Placement
Stop Loss is placed slightly above the resistance level at 1.09575.
This ensures protection against false breakouts or price retracements.
🎯 Target (Take Profit Projection)
The price target is calculated based on the height of the Double Top pattern.
Target Level: 1.06639, aligning with the measured move from the resistance to the neckline.
4. Market Outlook & Risk Management
📉 Bearish Scenario (High Probability Move)
✔️ The market structure shows a strong bearish reversal with price failing to break above resistance.
✔️ The confirmed neckline break indicates sellers have taken control.
✔️ If the price continues lower, we can expect a move toward 1.06639.
📈 Bullish Scenario (Invalidation of Trade)
❌ If price closes back above resistance (1.09575), it would invalidate the bearish setup.
❌ This would indicate that buyers are regaining control, and the trade setup should be re-evaluated.
5. Final Thoughts & TradingView Tags
Summary of Trading Setup:
✅ Pattern: Double Top (Bearish Reversal)
✅ Sell Entry: Below the support neckline
✅ Stop Loss: Above 1.09575
✅ Target: 1.06639
✅ Risk-Reward Ratio: Favorable
📌 Tags for TradingView Idea:
#EURUSD #DoubleTop #ForexTrading #BearishReversal #SupportResistance #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #ForexSetup #TradingStrategy
JPY/USD 4H Chart Analysis – Head & Shoulders Breakdown & BearishThis detailed technical analysis covers a Head & Shoulders pattern formation on the 4-hour chart of JPY/USD, highlighting a potential bearish reversal setup. The pattern suggests a shift from an uptrend to a downtrend, supported by a trendline breakdown and key resistance & support levels.
1️⃣ Understanding the Chart Pattern: Head & Shoulders (H&S)
📉 What is the Head & Shoulders Pattern?
The Head & Shoulders (H&S) is a classic bearish reversal pattern that appears after a prolonged uptrend, signaling a shift in market sentiment from bullish to bearish. It consists of three main parts:
Left Shoulder: A peak followed by a retracement.
Head: A higher peak, indicating the last strong bullish attempt.
Right Shoulder: A lower peak, failing to reach the height of the head, showing weakening momentum.
Neckline: A crucial support level that connects the lows of the shoulders. A confirmed break below this neckline is the trigger for a bearish continuation.
📊 Breakdown of the Pattern in This Chart
Left Shoulder (First Peak): The price made a high and then pulled back.
Head (Higher Peak): The market made another higher high but failed to sustain it, indicating exhaustion.
Right Shoulder (Lower Peak): A weaker attempt to push higher, but price failed to break previous highs, confirming the loss of bullish strength.
Neckline Breakout: The dotted trendline shows the ascending support that was eventually broken, confirming bearish momentum.
2️⃣ Key Technical Levels & Market Structure
Understanding the important levels in the market is crucial for setting up an effective trade.
🟧 Resistance Zone (Supply Area)
The resistance level, marked in a beige box, is located around 0.006800.
Price was rejected multiple times from this zone, confirming strong selling pressure.
The head of the pattern was formed in this region before a sharp drop.
🔵 Support Level (Neckline & Demand Area)
The neckline of the Head & Shoulders pattern was acting as support before being broken.
This level was tested multiple times before the final breakdown.
Once broken, it turned into a resistance level, meaning price may pull back to this area before continuing downward.
📉 Trendline Breakout (Bearish Confirmation)
A dashed trendline was previously supporting the uptrend but was broken, confirming the bearish shift in market structure.
This signals a trend reversal and a possible extended move lower.
3️⃣ Trading Strategy & Execution
A well-planned entry, stop loss, and take-profit strategy is essential for managing risk effectively.
📌 Entry Strategy (Short Setup)
Ideal Entry: Look for price to pull back to the neckline (previous support turned resistance).
Confirmation: Watch for bearish candlestick patterns such as:
Bearish engulfing
Pin bar rejection
Shooting star
Lower highs forming near the neckline
A rejection in this zone confirms seller dominance and a high-probability short setup.
📌 Stop Loss Placement
The Stop Loss is placed above the right shoulder at 0.006725.
This ensures protection from false breakouts or unexpected bullish moves.
📌 Profit Target Projection
Take-Profit Target: The projected move suggests a target at 0.006493.
This aligns with previous structural support, increasing its significance.
The measured move for Head & Shoulders suggests that price could fall further after confirmation.
Risk-Reward Ratio
The Risk (Stop Loss): Around 50 pips.
The Reward (Profit Target): Around 180 pips.
This results in a Risk-Reward Ratio of approximately 1:3, making it an attractive trade.
4️⃣ Market Sentiment & Expected Price Movement
📉 Bearish Scenario (Most Likely)
Price retests the neckline but fails to break above it.
Sellers step in, rejecting the resistance level, leading to further downside.
Price targets the next major support at 0.006493, completing the Head & Shoulders move.
📈 Bullish Scenario (Alternative)
If price reclaims the neckline and moves back above 0.006725, the pattern is invalidated.
This could lead to a bullish continuation back toward previous highs.
In this case, traders should cut losses early and avoid forcing a short trade.
5️⃣ Risk Management & Best Practices
1️⃣ Position Sizing:
Risk only 1-2% of your account per trade to maintain long-term profitability.
2️⃣ Confirmation Before Entry:
Wait for price to reject the neckline resistance before entering short.
Avoid entering too early without clear bearish signs.
3️⃣ Monitor News & Fundamentals:
Major economic events, interest rate decisions, or central bank announcements could impact JPY/USD price action.
🔎 Final Conclusion: Bearish Outlook on JPY/USD
The Head & Shoulders breakdown signals a trend reversal from bullish to bearish.
The neckline breakout confirms seller control over the market.
The best short entry is on a pullback to previous support (now resistance).
Target at 0.006493, with a Stop Loss at 0.006725 ensures controlled risk.
📢 Trading Bias: Bearish 📉
💡 Watch for a retest & rejection before entering short.
XAG/USD Rising Wedge Breakdown To Bearish Trade Setup1. Overview of the Chart
This chart represents Silver (XAG/USD) on the 4-hour timeframe from the OANDA exchange. The price action has formed a Rising Wedge pattern, which is a classic bearish reversal formation. This suggests that a potential breakdown could lead to a significant decline in price.
2. Chart Pattern: Rising Wedge Formation
A Rising Wedge consists of a narrowing price range with higher highs and higher lows, but the slope of the support line (bottom trendline) is steeper than the resistance line (top trendline).
This signals weakening bullish momentum, as buyers are struggling to push the price higher, and sellers are stepping in.
Rising Wedges typically break downward due to the loss of buying strength.
3. Key Technical Levels and Market Structure
A. Resistance Level (Highlighted in Beige Box - $34.50 to $34.80)
This zone has acted as a supply area, where price struggles to break higher.
The price touched this level multiple times, failing to hold above it, which increases the probability of a reversal.
B. Support Level (Highlighted in Blue Box - Around $33.50)
This is a critical short-term support where buyers previously stepped in.
A break below this zone would indicate a confirmation of the wedge breakdown and further downside potential.
C. Stop Loss Level (Marked at $34.80)
Placed above the resistance zone, ensuring protection if price invalidates the pattern and moves higher instead.
This aligns with a logical risk-management strategy to minimize losses if the setup fails.
D. Bearish Breakdown Projection & Target (Marked at $30.46)
The projected target aligns with previous structure support, meaning price may find buyers around this level.
This level is determined by measuring the height of the wedge and projecting it downward from the breakout point.
4. Trading Strategy & Execution Plan
📌 Short (Sell) Trade Setup:
Entry:
Enter a short position once price breaks below the lower trendline of the wedge with strong bearish momentum (e.g., a big red candle closing below support).
A possible retest of the broken support could provide a second entry opportunity.
Stop Loss:
Set at $34.80, above resistance, to ensure the trade is protected against invalidation.
Take Profit (Target):
First target: $32.50 (psychological level and minor support).
Final target: $30.46 (major support and full pattern breakdown projection).
5. Market Psychology & Confirmation Signals
Why This Setup is Bearish?
Price action shows higher highs but with decreasing strength, signaling bull exhaustion.
The Rising Wedge is a well-known bearish structure, and its breakdown typically leads to a strong sell-off.
Volume confirmation: If the breakdown happens with high volume, it strengthens the bearish case.
What to Watch For?
A decisive bearish candle closing below the wedge support confirms the short setup.
If price retests the broken trendline and fails to reclaim it, it provides a second opportunity for entry.
Avoid entering if price consolidates near resistance instead of breaking down.
6. Conclusion: Bearish Bias & Trading Edge
The Rising Wedge formation suggests that Silver is losing bullish momentum and could break down.
Key levels and structure provide a well-defined trade setup, ensuring a good risk-to-reward ratio.
Traders should wait for a confirmed breakdown before entering a short position.
📉 Bearish Outlook – Price likely to drop toward $30.46 target
⚠️ Risk Management is crucial – Stop Loss at $34.80
🎯 Breakdown confirmation needed before entering short positions
Would you like me to refine any part or add more insights? 😊
Gold Spot (XAU/USD) Analysis: Bullish Pennant Breakout to Target1. Overview of the Chart
This 4-hour chart of Gold Spot (XAU/USD) presents a bullish pennant pattern, which is a strong continuation formation, indicating that the price is likely to continue its upward trajectory. The price action has followed a clear trend structure, and we can identify key support and resistance levels, breakout points, and potential profit targets.
This analysis provides a comprehensive breakdown of the chart setup, including:
The technical pattern formation
Key support and resistance zones
Trade setup with an ideal entry, stop loss, and profit target
Risk management considerations
Market conditions and external factors to monitor
2. Breakdown of the Chart Pattern: Bullish Pennant Formation
Understanding the Bullish Pennant Pattern
A bullish pennant is a continuation pattern that occurs after a strong upward movement (known as the "flagpole"). The market then consolidates within a small triangular shape, forming the pennant. This consolidation is seen as a temporary pause before the next bullish move.
Key Characteristics of the Pennant in this Chart
Flagpole Formation:
The steep rally before the pennant formed represents a strong bullish impulse, driven by increased buying pressure.
This rapid price increase set the foundation for the pennant pattern.
Consolidation (Pennant Formation):
Price action moved within converging trendlines, forming a symmetrical triangular pattern.
The market temporarily paused, as some traders took profits while others awaited further momentum.
This type of consolidation is common before the price resumes its trend.
Breakout from the Pennant:
The bullish breakout above the upper trendline of the pennant confirms the continuation of the uptrend.
A strong breakout suggests renewed buying interest, likely pushing prices toward the next resistance level.
3. Key Technical Levels on the Chart
A. Resistance Level (Potential Selling Zone)
A critical resistance zone is marked between $3,100 - $3,125, where selling pressure could emerge.
If the price faces rejection in this zone, a temporary retracement could occur before another push higher.
A breakout above this resistance level would further strengthen the bullish case, possibly pushing gold toward the $3,175 - $3,200 range.
B. Support Level (Demand Zone)
The support zone is around $3,025 - $3,017, which is the last significant swing low.
This level represents a strong buying area where traders may look for re-entry on a pullback.
A break below this support could invalidate the bullish setup, signaling a shift in market sentiment.
C. Trendline Support (Dynamic Support)
The dashed black trendline represents an uptrend support.
If price retraces toward this level and holds, it may offer another buying opportunity before resuming its uptrend.
A break below this trendline would be a warning signal, suggesting a weakening of bullish momentum.
4. Trade Setup and Execution Strategy
A. Entry Strategy
The ideal entry point was upon the confirmed breakout above the pennant, around $3,075 - $3,085.
Aggressive traders may have entered at the breakout itself.
Conservative traders may wait for a pullback to retest the breakout zone before entering, ensuring confirmation.
B. Stop Loss Placement (Risk Management)
A stop loss is placed below the support zone at $3,017 to minimize downside risk.
This placement protects against false breakouts or unexpected market reversals.
Keeping a tight stop loss allows for a higher risk-to-reward ratio while maintaining a disciplined approach.
C. Profit Target Projection (Expected Price Movement)
The target price is determined using the measured move approach, where the height of the flagpole is added to the breakout point.
The expected profit target is in the range of $3,175 - $3,200, offering a potential upside of 4.29% from the breakout level.
If price maintains its bullish momentum, further gains could be expected beyond the target zone.
5. Risk Management & Considerations
A. Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR)
This trade setup provides a favorable risk-to-reward ratio (RRR).
With an entry near $3,085, a stop loss at $3,017, and a target around $3,175, the trade offers a reward-to-risk ratio of approximately 3:1.
This ensures that even if the trade does not succeed, the risk is controlled while allowing significant upside potential.
B. Factors That Could Invalidate the Setup
Failure to sustain the breakout: If price falls back below the pennant, the setup may be invalid.
Break below the support zone ($3,017): This would signal a possible trend reversal.
Weak volume on breakout: A lack of volume could indicate a false breakout, leading to price retracement.
C. Alternative Trade Scenarios
Scenario 1: Retest & Continuation:
If price pulls back to retest the breakout zone ($3,075 - $3,085) and holds, traders can look for another buying opportunity.
Scenario 2: False Breakout & Reversal:
If price falls below the support level ($3,017), traders should exit long positions and re-evaluate market conditions.
6. Market Conditions & External Factors to Monitor
A. Gold’s Correlation with USD & Interest Rates
Stronger USD → Downward Pressure on Gold
Weaker USD → Bullish Gold Trend
Interest rate decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve play a significant role in gold prices.
B. Economic Events & News Impact
Inflation Reports: Higher inflation often supports gold prices.
Geopolitical Tensions: Political instability can lead to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Stock Market Movements: A weaker stock market can drive capital into gold.
7. Conclusion: Bullish Outlook with Cautious Optimism
Key Takeaways:
✔ Bullish pennant breakout confirmed – strong continuation signal.
✔ Price is above key support & trendline – maintaining bullish structure.
✔ Clear trade plan with entry, stop loss, and target levels.
Trading Plan Summary:
Entry Stop Loss Target Risk-Reward Ratio
$3,075 - $3,085 $3,017 $3,175 - $3,200 3:1
📌 Final Recommendation:
Maintain a bullish bias as long as price holds above the support zone ($3,017).
Watch for volume confirmation to ensure the breakout is valid.
Adjust stop loss or secure profits if price reaches key resistance levels ($3,100 - $3,125).
If you need further clarification or alternative trade scenarios, let me know! 🚀
Bitcoin Dump Perfectly Predicted ! What's Next? 76k ?🚨 DID EVERYONE REMEMBER ? 🚨
🔥February 14th – I told everyone loud and clear SHORT or SELL because BTC was about to DUMP. Look at where we are now another perfect prediction, another massive win. 🚀
Hope all my real ones remembered and stayed safe in this move. We are still valid in our analysis, deep in profits, and absolutely killing this trade.
✅ Book partial profits – Lock in those gains.
✅ Move SL to entry – No risk, stress-free ride.
We move smart, calculated, and ahead of the market. Now, let’s analyse
the next move.
🔍BTC Technical Analysis What’s Next ?
Bitcoin followed the bearish rejection from key resistance and is continuing its downtrend. We saw a weak consolidation before another breakdown, and structure still favors further downside.
📊 Key Levels to Watch
🔻 Support: $68,500-$70,000 – If this level breaks, BTC could accelerate lower.
🔺 Resistance: $85,000-$86,000 – A reclaim of this zone would invalidate further downside.
🔮 Potential Scenarios
1️⃣ If BTC holds above $75,000-$76,000, we could see a short-term bounce before another drop.
2️⃣ If BTC loses $70,000, expect further downside targeting $68,500 or lower.
3️⃣ Bulls need a strong reclaim above $85,000 to flip structure bullish again.
📉 We remain bearish until BTC shows clear strength. Manage risk, stay disciplined, and ride the trend.
💬Drop a comment and follow if you caught this move & let’s stay ahead of the game!🚀
EURUSD Daily, H4,H1 Forecasts, Technical Analysis & Trading Idea💡 Daily Timeframe:
As forecasted by 4CastMachine AI last week, EURUSD started corrective decline.
This decline may continue, but the support area of 1.0732 could trigger a rebound.
If this area is broken, the price will decline to the support area of 1.0600 to 1.0527.
This area, which was previously a major resistance, will become a major support, creating a good buying opportunity.
So, given the long-term uptrend, we can use this area as a long-term BUY ZONE.
💡 H4 Timeframe:
The Downtrend was a corrective wave and is broken now. It suggests we will soon see another leg higher.
💡 H1 Timeframe:
The price is in an UpTrend.
The bullish wave is expected to continue as long as the price is above the strong Support at 1.0732
1.0802 resistance is broken now. It will act as a support now!
Forecast:
Correction wave toward the Buy Zone
Another Downward Impulse wave toward Lower TPs
USDCAD: Bullish Outlook For Next Week Explained 🇺🇸🇨🇦
There is a high chance that USDCAD will keep rising next week.
A test of the underlined blue support triggered a strong bullish reaction
and a breakout of a resistance line of a falling wedge pattern.
I think that the pair may rise and reach at least 1.4357 level.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
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3 Best Trading Opportunities to Maximize Profit Potential
Hey traders,
In the today's article, we will discuss 3 types of incredibly accurate setups that you can apply for trading financial markets.
1. Trend Line Breakout and Retest
The first setup is a classic trend line breakout.
Please, note that such a setup will be accurate if the trend line is based on at least 3 consequent bullish or bearish moves.
If the market bounces from a trend line, it is a vertical support.
If the market drops from a trend line, it is a vertical resistance.
The breakout of the trend line - vertical support is a candle close below that. After a breakout, it turns into a safe point to sell the market from.
The breakout of the trend line - vertical resistance is a candle close above that. After a breakout, it turns into a safe point to buy the market from.
Take a look at the example. On GBPJPY, the market was growing steadily, respecting a rising trend line that was a vertical support.
A candle close below that confirmed its bearish violation.
It turned into a vertical resistance .
Its retest was a perfect point to sell the market from.
2. Horizontal Structure Breakout and Retest
The second setup is a breakout of a horizontal key level.
The breakout of a horizontal support and a candle close below that is a strong bearish signal. After a breakout, a support turns into a resistance.
Its retest is a safe point to sell the market from.
The breakout of a horizontal resistance and a candle close above that is a strong bullish signal. After a breakout, a resistance turns into a support.
Its retest if a safe point to buy the market from.
Here is the example. WTI Crude Oil broke a key daily structure resistance. A candle close above confirmed the violation.
After a breakout, the broken resistance turned into a support.
Its test was a perfect point to buy the market from.
3. Buying / Selling the Market After Pullbacks
The third option is to trade the market after pullbacks.
However, remember that the market should be strictly in a trend .
In a bullish trend, the market corrects itself after it sets new higher highs. The higher lows usually respect the rising trend lines.
Buying the market from such a trend line, you open a safe trend-following trade.
In a bearish trend, after the price sets lower lows, the correctional movements initiate. The lower highs quite often respect the falling trend lines.
Selling the market from such a trend line, you open a safe trend-following trade.
On the chart above, we can see EURAUD pair trading in a bullish trend.
After the price sets new highs, it retraces to a rising trend line.
Once the trend line is reached, trend-following movements initiate.
What I like about these 3 setups is the fact that they work on every market and on every time frame. So no matter what you trade and what is your trading style, you can apply them for making nice profits.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
CHF/USD Weekly Forecast: Falling Wedge Breakout Towards TargetMarket Overview: Bullish Reversal in CHF/USD
The Swiss Franc (CHF) / U.S. Dollar (USD) currency pair has recently broken out of a Falling Wedge pattern, signaling a bullish trend reversal. This breakout is significant as it suggests the end of a prolonged downtrend and the beginning of a new upward momentum. Traders who capitalize on this pattern could benefit from potential long opportunities.
This analysis will cover the chart pattern, key levels, trading setup, risk management, and market sentiment, providing a comprehensive professional breakdown of the CHF/USD price action.
1. Chart Pattern: Falling Wedge – Bullish Breakout
A Falling Wedge is a well-known bullish reversal pattern that forms when price action creates lower highs and lower lows, but the slope of the highs is steeper than the lows. This leads to a narrowing structure that suggests sellers are losing strength, paving the way for a bullish breakout.
Pattern Characteristics:
✔ Prior Downtrend: The CHF/USD pair was in a sustained bearish trend before forming the wedge.
✔ Converging Trendlines: Price action squeezed into a wedge formation, showing decreasing volatility.
✔ Breakout Confirmation: The price successfully broke above the wedge resistance, signaling a shift in market sentiment.
✔ Retest Possibility: Price may revisit the breakout zone before continuing its uptrend.
A breakout from a falling wedge typically leads to a sharp bullish rally, making this a high-probability trading opportunity.
2. Key Technical Levels: Support & Resistance
Support Zones (Buying Interest):
🔵 1.0835 – 1.1000: This zone has acted as strong support where buyers stepped in aggressively.
🔵 1.1071 – 1.1095: A short-term support level that aligns with recent price action, making it a critical stop-loss area.
Resistance Zones (Profit Targets):
🔴 1.1483 – 1.1550 (Primary Resistance): Price has struggled at this level previously, making it the first target for a bullish move.
🔴 1.1600 (Major Resistance): If the uptrend continues, this level will act as the next major challenge.
🔴 1.1909 (Extended Target): A long-term resistance level where price has historically reversed.
3. Trading Strategy & Entry Setup
Now that we have identified the breakout and key levels, let’s design a strategic trading plan.
📌 Entry Points for Long Trades:
✅ Aggressive Entry: Buy at the current price after the breakout, expecting continuation.
✅ Conservative Entry: Wait for a retest of the wedge breakout zone or support near 1.1071 – 1.1095 before entering long.
📌 Stop-Loss Placement (Risk Management):
❌ Stop below 1.1071: This level is a strong support area, and a break below it may invalidate the bullish setup.
❌ Alternative Stop below 1.1000: A safer option for long-term traders to avoid stop-hunting.
📌 Take-Profit Levels:
🎯 Target 1: 1.1483 – 1.1550 (Primary Resistance Zone)
🎯 Target 2: 1.1600 (Stronger resistance where partial profits can be booked)
🎯 Target 3 (Extended): 1.1909 (For swing traders holding positions longer)
📌 Risk-Reward Ratio:
A proper Risk-to-Reward (R:R) ratio of at least 1:2 should be followed for efficient trade management. This means:
Risking 50 pips to gain 100 pips (or more) for profitable trading.
4. Market Sentiment & Confirmation Signals
✔ RSI (Relative Strength Index):
Above 50? Bullish confirmation.
Near 70? Overbought zone, potential pullback.
✔ MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
Bullish Crossover? Strengthens buy signal.
Divergence? Confirms price momentum.
✔ Volume Analysis:
High volume on breakout? Confirms strong buying interest.
Low volume? Beware of false breakout.
✔ Fundamental Factors:
Swiss National Bank (SNB) Policy: If SNB maintains dovish policies, CHF could weaken, pushing CHF/USD higher.
US Federal Reserve Stance: A strong USD could slow CHF/USD gains.
5. Conclusion & Trading Plan
🔹 Summary of Trade Setup:
✅ Bullish breakout from Falling Wedge – high-probability long trade
✅ Retest of breakout zone may offer better entry
✅ Major support at 1.1000 – 1.1071
✅ Targeting 1.1550 – 1.1909 range
🚀 Final Trading Plan:
📌 Buy CHF/USD above 1.1100 – 1.1150
📌 Stop-loss below 1.1071
📌 Take Profit 1: 1.1550
📌 Take Profit 2: 1.1600
📌 Take Profit 3 (Swing Trade): 1.1909
📢 Pro Tip:
Always confirm breakout volume before entering.
Monitor economic events affecting CHF & USD.
Use proper risk management (1-2% of account per trade).
📊 Final Verdict:
🔥 CHF/USD is in a bullish setup after breaking out from a Falling Wedge. Traders should look for buy opportunities on pullbacks while targeting resistance levels. 🚀
EUR/GBP Weekly Forecast: Double Bottom Pattern, Bullish ReversalOverview of the Chart
This is a EUR/GBP daily chart, showcasing a Double Bottom Pattern, which is a classic bullish reversal formation in technical analysis. The pair has been in a downtrend for several months, but recent price action indicates a potential shift in momentum.
The double bottom pattern consists of two distinct lows (Bottom 1 & Bottom 2) at nearly the same level, forming a W-shaped structure. This suggests that sellers attempted to push the price lower twice but failed both times due to strong buying pressure at the support zone.
As the price starts to rise from the second bottom, the neckline resistance becomes a crucial level to watch. A confirmed breakout above this neckline would validate the pattern and signal a potential bullish rally.
Chart Breakdown & Key Components
1. Double Bottom Pattern Explanation
The first bottom formed in December 2024, marking the lowest price point where buyers stepped in.
The second bottom formed in March 2025, confirming strong demand in the support zone.
The pattern suggests bearish exhaustion, as sellers were unable to push the price lower.
The neckline at ~0.84778 acts as a key breakout level. Once price moves above it, the bullish reversal is confirmed.
🔹 Why is this pattern important?
It signals a trend reversal from bearish to bullish.
It attracts buying interest as traders recognize the formation.
The measured move suggests a potential target of 0.87307, aligning with previous resistance levels.
2. Key Support & Resistance Zones
✅ Support Zone (0.82249 - 0.82458)
This level has been tested twice, making it a strong demand area.
Buyers aggressively defended this zone, preventing further downside.
A break below this level would invalidate the bullish setup.
✅ Neckline Resistance (~0.84778)
This is the breakout level that confirms the double bottom pattern.
A strong bullish daily candle closing above 0.84778 would indicate a trend shift.
The price may retest this level after breaking out, offering a second entry opportunity.
✅ Major Resistance & Target Areas
0.86251 → The first major resistance zone, where price may face some selling pressure.
0.87307 → The final target based on the pattern projection, aligning with historical resistance.
3. Trading Setup & Execution Plan
🔹 Entry Strategy (Breakout Confirmation)
Enter a buy position after the price breaks and closes above the neckline (~0.84778).
A retest of the neckline provides a second chance to enter at a better price.
Look for high volume confirmation on the breakout for additional confidence.
🔹 Stop Loss Placement (Risk Management)
Place the stop-loss below 0.82249, just under the support zone.
This ensures protection against false breakouts.
Avoid placing the stop too tight, as price fluctuations can trigger early exits.
🔹 Take Profit Levels (Reward Calculation)
First Target: 0.86251 (Intermediate Resistance Level)
Final Target: 0.87307 (Measured Move Projection)
Partial profits can be taken at 0.86251, while runners target 0.87307.
🔹 Risk-Reward Analysis
Entry near 0.84778, stop loss below 0.82249, target at 0.87307.
This setup offers a risk-to-reward ratio (R:R) of over 3:1, making it a highly favorable trade.
4. Market Sentiment & Potential Scenarios
Bullish Scenario (High Probability) ✅
Price successfully breaks above the neckline at 0.84778.
Retests the neckline and holds as new support, leading to strong bullish momentum.
Moves toward 0.86251 first, then extends to 0.87307.
This scenario aligns with technical confirmation & volume breakout strategy.
Bearish Scenario (Low Probability) ❌
Price fails to break the neckline and faces rejection.
The pair revisits the support zone (0.82249 - 0.82458) for a third test.
If the support breaks, it could invalidate the bullish setup, leading to continued downtrend.
5. Final Thoughts & Summary 🎯
✅ Pattern Identified → Double Bottom, signaling bullish reversal.
✅ Breakout Level → Watch for confirmation above 0.84778.
✅ Risk Management → Stop loss below 0.82249.
✅ Profit Target → 0.86251 (Partial Profit), 0.87307 (Final Target).
✅ Trade Plan → Buy on breakout, retest entry for better positioning.
🔥 This is a high-probability bullish setup! Watch for breakout confirmation before entering a trade.
(XAG/USD) weekly Forcast – Double Top Breakdown & Bearish SetupThis detailed technical analysis of Silver (XAG/USD) on the daily timeframe highlights a potential bearish reversal forming through a Double Top pattern. This setup suggests that Silver could be gearing up for a major decline, provided key confirmation levels are met. Let’s break it down thoroughly.
📌 1. Understanding the Chart Pattern – Double Top Formation
A Double Top is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after an extended uptrend, signaling that buyers are losing strength and sellers are taking control.
🔹 Key Phases of the Double Top:
1️⃣ First Top (Top 1)
Silver initially rallied to a major resistance zone ($34.5 - $35).
The price failed to break higher, leading to a correction.
This rejection signals heavy selling pressure at this level.
2️⃣ Pullback to the Neckline ($28.5 - $29)
After the first peak, the price retraced to a critical support area known as the neckline.
This level acts as a decision point—either price bounces or breaks lower.
3️⃣ Second Top (Top 2) – Bull Trap?
Silver made another attempt to break through $34.5 - $35, but once again, sellers defended this level.
The failure to set a new higher high confirms weakness, forming the second peak.
This second rejection adds credibility to the Double Top pattern, increasing the likelihood of a bearish move.
4️⃣ The Crucial Neckline Test
The neckline around $28.5 - $29 is the most critical level to watch.
A clean daily close below this level would confirm the breakdown and trigger a strong bearish trend.
📍 2. Key Technical Levels & Market Structure
🔴 Resistance Level ($34.5 - $35) – Strong Selling Zone
This area has repeatedly rejected price advances, indicating high supply.
A breakout above this level would invalidate the bearish setup.
🔵 Support & Neckline ($28.5 - $29) – The Make-or-Break Zone
A break below this level would complete the Double Top pattern and confirm the bearish trend.
If buyers defend this area, Silver could see short-term consolidation before another breakout attempt.
🎯 Target Price ($22 - $23) – Where Silver Could Be Headed
The measured move (distance from top to neckline) suggests a potential drop to $22 - $23.
This aligns with historical support zones, making it a reasonable target.
🚨 Stop Loss Area ($35.2 - $35.5) – Risk Management
If Silver invalidates the pattern and closes above $35.2 - $35.5, the bearish setup is no longer valid.
Traders should cut losses early if price regains bullish momentum.
📊 3. Trading Setup & Execution Plan
🔻 Bearish Trading Plan (Short Entry):
✅ Entry Point:
Enter a short position after a confirmed neckline break below $28.5 - $29.
Wait for a break-and-retest of this level to confirm the bearish move.
✅ Stop Loss:
Place stop loss above $35.2 - $35.5, just beyond the resistance level.
This protects against false breakouts and sudden bullish reversals.
✅ Take Profit Targets:
Primary target: $24.5 - $25 (first support zone).
Final target: $22 - $23 (measured move completion).
📉 4. Market Sentiment & Technical Outlook
📌 Why This Setup is Important:
The Double Top pattern is a well-established bearish signal.
Price failed to create a new high, showing that buying momentum is fading.
The neckline breakdown will confirm that sellers are in control, pushing price lower.
📌 What Could Invalidate This Setup?
If Silver breaks and closes above $35.5, it would signal that bulls have regained strength.
A strong rally above this level could send Silver towards $37 - $38 instead.
🔎 Final Thoughts – Will Silver Collapse or Hold?
The chart suggests a bearish bias, but confirmation is key!
A breakdown below $28.5 - $29 would activate the Double Top pattern, leading to a potential drop.
If Silver bounces off the neckline, then we might see consolidation or a reversal instead.
🚀 What’s your view? Will Silver break down or bounce back? Share your thoughts below! 🚀
JPY/USD Weekly Forecast – Falling Wedge Breakout & Bullish MoveChart Overview
This chart presents a technical analysis of the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the U.S. Dollar (USD) on a daily timeframe, published on TradingView. The setup is based on a Falling Wedge pattern, which has led to a bullish breakout, signaling a potential price rally. Let's break it down step by step.
1️⃣ Identifying the Pattern – Falling Wedge Formation
The primary pattern identified in the chart is a Falling Wedge, which is a well-known bullish reversal pattern.
Characteristics of the Falling Wedge in this Chart:
Two downward-sloping trendlines (black lines) forming a wedge shape.
Price makes lower highs and lower lows, but the distance between highs and lows gradually narrows.
The breakout occurs when price closes above the upper trendline, confirming a potential uptrend.
Key Observations:
✅ The pattern starts forming around September 2024 and continues until December 2024.
✅ A breakout occurs at the end of December 2024, confirming bullish momentum.
✅ After breaking out, the price retests the wedge's upper boundary, acting as new support before continuing upward.
2️⃣ Support & Resistance Zones – Key Price Levels
Support Level:
The support zone is marked in a beige rectangle at the bottom of the chart.
This is where buyers repeatedly stepped in, preventing further decline.
The price touched this area multiple times before reversing upwards, making it a strong demand zone.
Resistance Level:
The resistance zone is identified at the top of the chart (shaded beige area).
This level represents previous price peaks, where selling pressure was strong.
The price is expected to face some resistance when approaching this zone.
3️⃣ Trend Reversal Confirmation & Bullish Structure
After breaking out of the falling wedge, the price has started forming higher highs and higher lows, indicating an uptrend.
Key Trend Indicators:
✔ Curved blue dashed line suggests an upward trajectory, confirming a rounded bottom reversal.
✔ Price is following a trendline support, validating bullish sentiment.
✔ Momentum is strong, and buyers are in control after the breakout.
4️⃣ Trading Setup – Entry, Stop Loss & Take Profit
This analysis is structured into a trading plan with clear risk management.
📌 Entry Point (Buy Confirmation)
Entry is ideal on a retest of the breakout zone or a continuation of the bullish structure.
The recent higher low serves as a great point to confirm trend continuation.
📌 Stop-Loss Placement
Stop-loss is placed at 0.006465 (marked in blue), below the latest support.
This level ensures protection against false breakouts.
📌 Take Profit Target
The target is set at 0.007128, aligning with historical resistance.
If momentum remains strong, the price might push even higher.
5️⃣ Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR) & Trade Justification
Risk-to-Reward Analysis:
Stop-Loss: 0.006465 (below support)
Entry Price: Around 0.006671
Target Price: 0.007128
Risk-to-Reward Ratio: Approximately 1:2.5, meaning for every $1 risked, there's a $2.5 potential gain.
Trade Justification:
✔ Falling Wedge breakout is confirmed.
✔ Retest of broken resistance turned support gives an ideal entry.
✔ Bullish trend structure supports the upside move.
✔ Well-defined stop-loss and take-profit levels provide controlled risk exposure.
6️⃣ Final Thoughts & Conclusion
📌 This is a textbook bullish setup based on a Falling Wedge breakout. The combination of pattern breakout, trend structure, and strong support makes this a high-probability trade.
📌 Potential Risks to Watch:
If price fails to hold above stop-loss, it could indicate bullish weakness.
Major macroeconomic news or fundamental events can shift momentum.
📌 Overall Bias: ✅ Bullish towards the 0.007128 target, as long as the price remains above key support zones.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast | Rising Wedge Breakdown & Bearish MoveIntroduction
This Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 1-Day Chart Analysis highlights a critical market development: the breakdown of a Rising Wedge pattern, signaling a potential bearish trend. After reaching a new all-time high (ATH) resistance, BTC has shown weakness, confirming a possible reversal. This analysis covers key levels, trend structure, trading setups, and market psychology for traders looking to capitalize on this move.
1️⃣ Understanding the Chart Structure
Rising Wedge Pattern – A Classic Bearish Reversal
A Rising Wedge is a bearish technical formation that develops when prices rise within a narrowing range. It typically features:
✅ Higher Highs & Higher Lows: Suggesting bullish momentum, but the price action becomes weaker over time.
✅ Converging Trendlines: Showing a loss of buyer strength as each rally fails to make significant new highs.
✅ Volume Decline: As the wedge matures, volume decreases, confirming reduced buying interest.
✅ Breakdown Confirmation: A sharp drop below the lower trendline validates the bearish move.
In this case, BTC followed all the classic wedge characteristics, and its breakdown has initiated a potential major correction.
2️⃣ Key Levels & Market Dynamics
🔵 Resistance Level + All-Time High (ATH) (~$110K-$115K)
BTC reached its ATH resistance zone but failed to hold above it.
The red arrow indicates the rejection at the top, where strong selling pressure emerged.
Bulls attempted multiple breakouts but failed, leading to a reversal.
🟢 Support Zone (~$78K-$80K) – Weak Retest Before Breakdown
The price initially bounced off this support but struggled to hold gains.
The blue support level highlights a key zone where BTC found temporary stability.
A weak rally followed, but the price got rejected again, confirming the bearish trend.
🔻 Major Bearish Target (~$48,920)
Using the measured move theory, the projected drop extends to $48,920, a strong historical support.
The black arrow points to the expected downward trajectory.
3️⃣ Trading Setup & Risk Management
🔽 Bearish Trade Setup (Short Position Strategy)
For traders looking to short BTC based on this pattern, here’s an optimal trade setup:
🔸 Entry Point: Around $85K-$90K (post-retest of breakdown)
🔸 Stop Loss: Above $100K (invalidation of the bearish setup)
🔸 Take Profit Targets:
TP1: $75K (minor support)
TP2: $60K (psychological level)
TP3: $48,920 (final bearish target)
Alternative Scenario – Bullish Recovery?
If BTC reclaims $100K+ with high volume, the bearish thesis is invalidated, signaling a continuation of the uptrend.
A break above ATH ($115K) would confirm new bullish strength.
4️⃣ Market Sentiment & Psychological Factors
📉 Bearish Sentiment Strengthens:
Rising Wedges often cause a bull trap, where buyers expect new highs but get caught in a reversal.
Current price action suggests sellers are gaining control.
⚠️ Key Risks for Traders:
False breakdowns can occur if BTC sees unexpected bullish news.
Keeping an eye on fundamental developments (ETF approvals, macroeconomic conditions, etc.) is essential.
Conclusion – BTC Heading for a Deeper Correction?
Bitcoin’s Rising Wedge breakdown strongly suggests a continued bearish trend.
Short opportunities are ideal below $90K, with downside targets near GETTEX:48K -$50K.
If BTC regains $100K+, bearish outlook is invalid.
📊 Trading Recommendation: Monitor price action closely and adjust risk management accordingly!
Would you like me to tweak any part of this analysis? 😊
Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis – Next Week Big Move?The daily chart of Gold Spot (XAU/USD) presents a well-structured triangle pattern breakout, a strong uptrend, and a critical resistance zone near all-time highs (ATH). The price action suggests that gold is in a bullish phase but approaching a key decision point where it could either break higher or face a temporary pullback.
This analysis provides a detailed breakdown of the pattern, key levels, potential scenarios, and trading strategies for the coming week.
1. Technical Chart Breakdown
A. Triangle Pattern Breakout (Bullish Continuation)
The chart shows a symmetrical triangle formation, which typically signals a consolidation phase before a major price movement.
After a period of accumulation within the triangle, gold broke out upwards, confirming a bullish continuation pattern.
This breakout was supported by strong volume and buying pressure, reinforcing the trend strength.
B. Trendline & Support Levels (Key Areas for Buyers)
A rising trendline has been acting as dynamic support, confirming that the market remains in a bullish structure.
Major Support Levels:
$3,000 – A psychological support level that may act as a bounce zone in case of rejection at resistance.
$2,885 – A well-defined horizontal support level, previously tested multiple times.
If the price falls below $2,885, it could signal a trend reversal or a deeper correction.
2. Key Price Levels & Market Sentiment
A. Resistance & Target Levels (Where Sellers Might Step In)
Primary Resistance Zone: $3,137 - $3,150
This level represents a combination of all-time high (ATH), historical resistance, and a key breakout target.
If the price breaks and holds above this zone, it could trigger further upside towards $3,200 - $3,250.
However, if sellers dominate at this level, a pullback or correction could occur.
B. Stop-Loss & Risk Management Considerations
Traders should be cautious around the resistance zone and place stop-loss levels strategically to manage risk.
Stop-Loss Suggestions:
For Long Trades: Below $3,000 (to protect against fake breakouts).
For Short Trades: Above $3,150 (if price rejects resistance and starts a reversal).
3. Trading Strategy for Next Week
Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout & Continuation
If gold breaks and sustains above $3,137, it will confirm a bullish continuation.
Entry Strategy: Look for a retest of the breakout level ($3,100 - $3,137) before entering long positions.
Profit Targets:
First Target: $3,200
Second Target: $3,250+
Stop-Loss: Below $3,000, to protect against sudden reversals.
Scenario 2: Rejection at Resistance & Pullback
If gold fails to break $3,137 and forms a bearish rejection candle, it may indicate a short-term pullback.
Short Entry Strategy: Wait for confirmation of rejection with bearish price action signals (e.g., bearish engulfing, long upper wick).
Downside Targets:
First Target: $3,000
Second Target: $2,885 (major support)
Stop-Loss: Above $3,150, to avoid being trapped in a false breakdown.
Scenario 3: Bearish Reversal (Break Below $2,885)
If gold falls below $2,885, it could signal a potential trend reversal.
Short Trade Setup: Enter below $2,885, targeting $2,800 - $2,750 in the medium term.
Stop-Loss: Above $2,900, in case of a false breakdown.
4. Indicators & Confirmation Signals
A. Volume & Candlestick Patterns
Watch for high volume during breakouts to confirm strength.
Candlestick patterns such as bullish engulfing, hammer (for support bounces), or shooting star (for resistance rejection) can provide strong confirmation signals.
B. RSI (Relative Strength Index) & Overbought Conditions
If RSI is above 70, it could indicate that gold is overbought, increasing the likelihood of a pullback.
If RSI stays above 50 but below 70, it confirms bullish strength.
C. Moving Averages for Trend Confirmation
50-day and 200-day moving averages can act as additional support and resistance zones.
If the price is above both moving averages, it confirms the bullish trend.
5. Conclusion – What to Watch for Next Week?
✅ If price breaks and holds above $3,137 → Expect continuation towards $3,200 - $3,250.
✅ If price rejects at $3,137 → Watch for a pullback towards $3,000 or $2,885 for re-entry.
✅ If price drops below $2,885 → Expect deeper correction with a shift in trend structure.
📌 Key Takeaway: Gold remains bullish, but traders should watch the resistance level at $3,137 closely for confirmation of a breakout or a possible reversal. Risk management is crucial in case of unexpected market shifts.
Would you like me to add more insights using Fibonacci levels or historical trends? 📊🚀
Silver (XAG/USD) Rising Wedge – Bearish Breakdown Setup!A rising wedge is a pattern that typically forms when the price makes higher highs and higher lows, but the upward momentum starts weakening. The narrowing structure of the wedge indicates that buyers are losing strength, and a breakout to the downside is likely.
Key Characteristics of the Rising Wedge:
✔ Higher highs & higher lows – but with reduced momentum
✔ Trendline support (lower boundary) & resistance (upper boundary)
✔ Volume decline – suggests a potential reversal
Expected Scenario:
If the price breaks below the lower trendline, it signals bearish pressure, and Silver could see a strong decline.
2. Key Levels & Trading Setup
📌 Resistance Level ($34.50 - $34.80)
The upper boundary of the wedge is acting as strong resistance.
Historically, this zone has rejected price action multiple times, indicating sellers are defending this area.
📌 Support Level ($30.20 - $30.50)
A major demand zone where buyers previously stepped in.
If the wedge breaks down, this is the most likely target for the decline.
📌 Stop Loss ($34.81)
Placed just above the recent high and resistance zone to limit risk in case of an unexpected upside breakout.
📌 Target ($30.20)
Measured move from the wedge breakdown projects a sharp decline toward the next strong support at $30.20.
3. Trade Execution Strategy
🔴 Bearish Breakdown Scenario
If the price breaks below the lower trendline (around $33.00), we expect a strong move downward.
📉 Short Entry: Below $33.00 (after confirmation)
🎯 Target: $30.20
❌ Stop Loss: $34.81 (above resistance)
Confirmation Needed:
✅ Strong bearish candle close below support
✅ Increased volume during breakdown
✅ Retest of broken support turning into resistance
🟢 Bullish Alternative (Invalidation)
If price breaks and holds above $34.81, the bearish setup will be invalidated, and a breakout towards $36.00 - $37.00 could be expected.
4. Additional Considerations
📌 Fundamental Factors: Keep an eye on macroeconomic news, Fed decisions, and USD strength, as these impact Silver prices.
📌 Risk Management: Avoid overleveraging and use a proper risk-reward ratio (1:3 or higher).
📌 Market Sentiment: Watch volume trends and confirm breakout or fakeout before entering trades.
Conclusion
This chart presents a high-probability short trade setup based on the rising wedge breakdown.
If the breakdown occurs, Silver could drop toward the $30.20 support zone. However, traders should wait for confirmation before entering to avoid fakeouts.
Would you like me to refine this further for a TradingView post? 🚀
CHF/USD – Rising Wedge Breakdown | Bearish Setup The CHF/USD (Swiss Franc to US Dollar) 15-minute chart is currently displaying a classic Rising Wedge Pattern, which is widely recognized as a bearish reversal pattern. This setup signals weakening bullish momentum and an increased probability of a price breakdown. The chart provides a clear sell trade setup, with key levels including entry, stop loss, and target, making it a structured and well-defined opportunity for traders.
🔹 Key Technical Elements on the Chart
1️⃣ Resistance Level (Sell Zone)
📌 Location: Near 1.1350 – 1.1360
📌 Significance:
This level represents a strong supply zone, meaning sellers have consistently pushed prices down from this area.
Price attempted to break through this zone multiple times but was rejected, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
It serves as the upper boundary of the rising wedge, confirming its role in restricting upward movement.
Traders should be cautious of any false breakouts above this level before confirming a bearish move.
2️⃣ Support Level (Demand Zone)
📌 Location: Near 1.1295 – 1.1305
📌 Significance:
This level has historically acted as a demand zone, where buyers stepped in to push prices back up.
However, the formation of the rising wedge suggests weakening demand at this level.
Once the price breaks below this support zone, it confirms a bearish trend continuation.
3️⃣ Rising Wedge Pattern (Bearish Setup)
📌 Pattern Characteristics:
The rising wedge is a bearish continuation pattern that typically signals an upcoming sell-off.
Price moves inside a narrowing upward-sloping range, where buyers lose strength while sellers gradually gain control.
The lower trendline (dotted black line) has been providing support, but as price struggles near resistance, a breakdown becomes likely.
Once price breaks below the wedge, the pattern confirms a strong bearish move.
📌 Why Is This Important?
This pattern indicates that buyers are losing momentum, and a shift toward bearish control is taking place.
The expected move is a sharp downward breakout, leading to lower price levels.
4️⃣ Trendline Support (Breakdown Confirmation)
📌 Location: The dashed black line below price action
📌 Significance:
This trendline acted as a rising support, keeping price within the wedge.
A clean break below this trendline confirms the bearish breakout.
The breakdown is expected to be followed by increased selling pressure and higher trading volume.
📉 Bearish Trade Setup (Short Position Strategy)
Based on the rising wedge breakdown, traders can consider the following sell trade setup:
✅ Entry Point: Sell below 1.1325 (Confirm breakdown with volume)
✅ Stop Loss: Above 1.1356 (To avoid false breakouts)
✅ Target 1: 1.1295 (First support level)
✅ Target 2: 1.1275 (Deeper downside potential if momentum continues)
🛠 Trade Rationale (Why Take This Trade?)
🔸 Bearish Price Action → Price is rejecting resistance and forming a lower high, signaling weakness in the uptrend.
🔸 Pattern Confirmation → The rising wedge has a high probability of breaking downward, leading to a sharp decline.
🔸 Risk-Reward Ratio → The setup provides a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, as traders can manage risk efficiently by placing a stop loss above resistance.
🔸 Volume Analysis → If selling volume increases upon breakout, the move becomes more reliable.
📊 Market Outlook & Final Thoughts
🔹 Bearish Scenario:
If price breaks below 1.1325, expect a strong decline toward 1.1295 and potentially lower.
A sharp move downward could accelerate selling pressure, targeting 1.1275 in an extended move.
🔹 Bullish Reversal Risk:
If price closes back above 1.1356, the bearish setup is invalidated.
Traders should exit shorts if price reclaims the resistance level.
🚨 Final Verdict: Bearish Breakdown Expected!
📉 Short Setup Activated – Targeting 1.1295 🚀
📊 Watch for Volume Confirmation Before Entering!
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Trading Analysis – Rectangle Pattern Breakdown1. Market Overview
The BTC/USD chart (1-hour timeframe) illustrates a trendline-supported uptrend that eventually transitioned into a rectangle consolidation pattern before breaking downward. The market displayed signs of buyer exhaustion near the resistance level, leading to a rectangle pattern breakdown, confirming a bearish shift.
This analysis will break down the chart structure, key technical levels, potential trade setups, and risk management strategies for traders looking to capitalize on this move.
2. Breakdown of the Chart Structure
A. Trendline Breakout & Shift in Market Sentiment
The chart initially exhibits an ascending trendline, acting as dynamic support for Bitcoin’s price.
As long as BTC/USD remained above this trendline, the uptrend was intact.
However, once the price broke below the trendline with strong bearish momentum, it signaled a significant shift in sentiment from bullish to bearish.
The breakdown of the trendline also coincided with the rectangle’s lower boundary breakdown, confirming bearish strength.
B. Rectangle Pattern Formation (Consolidation Phase)
The price oscillated between resistance at $88,500 and support at $86,000, forming a rectangle consolidation pattern.
This pattern reflects a period of market indecision where buyers and sellers are in equilibrium.
Multiple failed breakout attempts at resistance signaled strong seller dominance, leading to eventual support failure.
The rectangle breakdown suggests that bears have gained control and a downward move is likely.
C. Breakdown Confirmation & Target Projection
The price broke below the lower support of the rectangle ($86,000) with increased selling pressure.
The bearish breakout was confirmed by strong red candles with high volume, reinforcing the downside move.
The height of the rectangle pattern provides a measured move target of around $83,797, aligning with previous support.
The momentum remains bearish, and price is likely to test this level before any reversal attempt.
3. Trade Setup & Risk Management
A. Ideal Trade Entry
Entry Point: After the price retested the broken rectangle support at $86,000, which now acts as resistance.
Confirmation: The rejection from this resistance with a bearish engulfing candle confirmed further downside.
Bearish momentum indicators, such as RSI and MACD crossovers, further validated the setup.
B. Stop-Loss Placement (Risk Management Strategy)
Stop Loss: Placed above the previous resistance zone at $88,969 to protect against false breakouts.
Rationale: If price moves back into the rectangle and surpasses resistance, the bearish setup becomes invalid.
C. Take-Profit Target & Risk-to-Reward Ratio
Target: $83,797, based on the rectangle pattern height projection and key support levels.
Risk-to-Reward Ratio: The setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, ensuring that potential gains outweigh potential losses.
4. Market Sentiment & Future Outlook
A. Bearish Continuation Outlook
The trendline failure, rectangle breakdown, and bearish candlestick patterns all suggest a continuation of the downtrend.
If price fails to reclaim support-turned-resistance ($86,000), further downside is expected.
Increased selling volume confirms bearish control.
B. Possible Bullish Reversal Scenarios
If BTC/USD bounces strongly from the $83,797 target zone, it could indicate buyer accumulation and lead to a bullish recovery.
A move back above $86,000 would invalidate the bearish outlook.
5. Conclusion
This BTC/USD analysis highlights a bearish rectangle pattern breakdown, reinforced by a trendline break and strong resistance rejections at $88,500. The breakout target is $83,797, where traders should monitor price action for further bearish continuation or potential reversal signs.
Traders should approach with caution, set appropriate stop-loss levels, and follow volume trends for confirmation of further price movements.
