Gold's Fakeout Into The Trap — Smart Money is Loading Up🟡 GOLD 30-Min Chart Breakdown — May 14, 2025
Gold just gave us a masterclass in Smart Money Concepts (SMC). Let’s dissect the juicy bits of this long setup:
🧩 1. Structure Overview
Market in a defined downward channel
Price taps the order block from previous accumulation zone
A liquidity sweep wick pierces just below the OB (classic SMC trap)
🛠 2. Key Confluences
🔵 Order Block: Held strong, respected on multiple timeframes
🔴 Liquidity Sweep: Deep wick hunts stops below OB, then bullish reaction
📉 Descending Channel: Price bounced off the bottom trendline
✅ Clean RRR Long: Setup has 1:5+ potential if targeting the upper channel
📈 3. Trade Idea
Entry: Around $3,220
Stop: Under $3,206 (below liquidity sweep)
TP: Zone near $3,257
Expecting breakout attempt if momentum breaks structure above $3,240
📉 4. Risk Notes & Management
Keep an eye on Asian session volume — fakeouts are common
Trail stop as price pushes past mid-channel
Rejection at $3,240 = consider partial close
📌 Gold loves a dramatic reversal — this one is no different. Smart money doesn’t chase — they accumulate in fear. This setup screams institutional entry zone.
💬 Drop a “💎” if you caught this with us!
🎥 Follow @ChartNinjas88 for clean SMC breakdowns like this every day!
Priceaction
2025-05-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Higher highs and higher lows compared to Tuesday. We are in a triangle and market is refusing to print below 23500. I do think we will see a big move tomorrow. What I don’t think is that we will close Friday at an extreme. If we get to 24000 again, I am very inclined to look to fade it again. Can we close this week below 23000? I gighly doubt that as well.
current market cycle: broad bull channel or trading range - doesn’t matter since you trade them the same
key levels: 23000 - 24100
bull case: Bulls want 24000 again and I think 23500 is the place where they are happy to scale in. Bears will likely give up tomorrow, if we move above 23650 since they tried 3 times since Monday and market is refusing to go lower. I still think bulls will likely not get much more than 24000. Every time we are in a form of a triangle, I will not write much since market is in balance around it’s midpoint and you should not interpret more into it than it is. We are in a clear bull trend and this sideways correction is better for bulls than bears, since sideways is acceptance and it means bears are not making much money.
Invalidation is below 23300.
bear case: Bears can not expect 23500 to break all of a sudden tomorrow. If anything, most have to cover if we go above 23650 because we could do 23750 or higher. I don’t have much for the bears. If they somehow break below 23440, it would open up the possibility of 23000 but for now it’s very unlikely.
Invalidation is above 24100.
short term: Neutral but rather looking for longs than shorts. Clear support 23500 and everyone expects at least a double top or more.
medium-long term from 2025-05-11: So here is my very rough guess about the next months. This short squeeze is clearly overdone and global macro stuff has most likely already deteriorated a great deal. Down to 20000 over the next weeks and form a big trading range. Up through October-Year end. Zero thought about a new bull trend above 24000 or that we have seen the lows for either 2025 or 2026. Good question is always, “How would you allocate 100k right now?”. 50% short dax, 25% of it levered/options and with the rest I would scalp.
trade of the day: Shorting above 23700 has been profitable all week but I expect it to fail either tomorrow or Friday. Market poked enough at it, that the chance of a breakout above is too big for me to continue to fade against that price.
GBPJPY Just Hit the Sweet Spot — High RRR or Fakeout Trap?💷 GBPJPY 30-Min Chart Breakdown — May 14, 2025
This setup is a banger for traders following structure, zones, and risk-reward logic. Let’s dissect the trade logic:
🔍 1. Market Structure
Price has been moving within a well-respected ascending channel (see black trendlines).
We just printed a short-term bearish pullback, with price dipping into a refined demand zone (highlighted pink/red).
The most recent bearish impulse looked like a liquidity sweep, not a structure break.
🧱 2. Smart Money Zone
Demand zone aligns with:
✅ Previous OB (order block)
✅ Mid-channel support
✅ Equal lows & trendline liquidity just below
Dark gray box = the exact entry block
Bulls stepped in right on time — classic mitigation + reaction setup
🎯 3. Risk-Reward
Entry: Around 195.380
SL: 195.110 (tight below the block)
TP: 196.575
RRR ≈ 1:5 — beautiful sniper entry with minimal exposure and max gain
🧠 4. What to Watch Next
Break above 195.900 = confirmation of bullish continuation
If price stalls again below midline, re-entry could come after another liquidity push
Clean break of 195.100 = invalidation (watch for potential short setups below)
🔁 Trade Management Tips:
Trail stops aggressively above 195.900
Scale out partials every 50 pips if you're trading it like a swing
Add confluence from DXY/Yen strength for better context
This one checks all the boxes: structure, zone, confirmation, and a clean RRR.
🚀 Tag a trader who loves tight stop, high-RR plays.
📲 Follow @ChartNinjas88 for more Smart Money scalps & swing setups!
XAUUSD Bearish Pennant Breakdown | Retest in Play – 3090 TargetGold (XAUUSD) has been in a corrective phase after reaching the resistance zone around 3370–3420 USD, where the price was previously rejected with strong selling pressure. Over the past sessions, price action has developed into a Bearish Pennant pattern, typically seen as a continuation pattern in a downtrend.
Following a sharp drop from the highs, the price consolidated between converging trendlines, creating lower highs and higher lows. This structure resembles a pennant or triangle formation, which traders often interpret as a pause before the next leg down.
🔍 Key Technical Features:
1. Resistance Zone (3370–3420 USD):
Strong institutional selling observed here.
Multiple rejections confirm this zone as a significant supply area.
This area also serves as a risk management reference point for stop-loss placement.
2. Support Zone (3210–3230 USD):
The price bounced multiple times from this level, making it a key demand area.
A clean break below this zone would confirm bearish continuation.
3. Trendline Resistance:
A descending trendline has been respected consistently since May 8.
Price recently retested this trendline after a minor pullback, aligning with the bearish pennant structure.
4. Bearish Pennant Pattern:
Forms after a strong downward impulse.
The consolidation is narrowing within converging trendlines.
A breakdown with high volume typically leads to a continuation of the prior trend.
5. Breakout & Retest:
Price has already broken below the pennant's lower boundary.
The current move is a retest of the broken trendline—a classic setup for entering a short position upon rejection.
🎯 Bearish Target Projection:
The measured move from the pole of the pennant suggests a target around 3090 USD.
This level is derived by taking the height of the initial drop before the pennant and projecting it downward from the breakout point.
🛑 Stop Loss Strategy:
A conservative stop loss can be placed just above the 3370 USD resistance zone.
Alternatively, a tighter stop could be placed slightly above the trendline (~3240–3250) for aggressive entries, though this increases the risk of a false breakout.
✅ Trading Plan Summary:
Aspect Level / Detail
Entry Zone After retest & rejection (near 3230–3240 USD)
Target 3090 USD
Stop Loss Above 3370 USD
Risk-Reward Approx. 1:3 or higher
Pattern Type Bearish Pennant
🧠 Final Thoughts:
This is a textbook bearish continuation setup with strong confluences:
Trendline resistance
Bearish pennant formation
Breakdown with retest
Clear resistance and support zones for managing risk
If momentum sustains to the downside after the retest, we could see a swift drop toward 3090 USD, offering a favorable shorting opportunity for swing and intraday traders alike.
Always confirm with volume and candlestick confirmation before execution. Stay updated with fundamental drivers such as CPI, PPI, or FOMC comments, which can inject volatility.
Dhanuka ,1DPattern Is looking very good for Breakout , Nifty is also Supporting also all the stocks for Bullish Breakouts , This Is best time to enter in breakout stocks .
Consider Only those stocks that seems Technically strong with Good Volume Breakouts and Strong close .
Risk According to your capacity and aim for 40% and Risk upto 4-5% for this trade , Mainly you have to give the Room to Fluctuate the Stock , according to this flucations you have to decide your Stop loss .
Take Only A+ Setups , so that your Accuracy Should Be High and Returns also High
Follow for more Swing Ideas Like this
GU-Wed-14/05/25 TDA-US CPI softens slightly, GU is rallying up!Analysis done directly on the chart
Follow for more, possible live trade updates!
Post trade analysis opened on Mon:
-Mistake: setting too wide tp ahead of US CPI
-Lesson learned: 3 types of tp set
1) Strong fundamental back up, wide tp (relying to push through levels)
2) Medium fundamental back up, tp to next major resistances (1h+)
3) No fundamental back up, tight tp and no holding
Always doing post trade analysis is really good and super
useful. By understanding if it was a technical problem, emotional
problem, fundamentally not understanding problem etc.
I advise you to do the same for each trade!
Comment down below what do you think!
Not financial advice, DYOR.
Market Flow Strategy
Mister Y
XAUUSD 4H | Strong Support in Play — Breakout or Bounce?🪙 Gold (XAUUSD) 4H Analysis — May 14, 2025
Gold is tapping into a critical support zone, where multiple SMC elements are aligning for either a massive bullish reversal or a stop-hunt breakdown. Let’s break it down:
🔻 1. Context & Price Action
Price has been in a down-channel, respecting structure and forming LHs (lower highs).
We're now tapping into a historically respected demand zone, clearly marked on the chart.
A large compression move into this level increases the probability of a volatile reaction.
🧱 2. Key Zones
✅ Support Zone: ~3,193 to 3,229 — highlighted in pink
💧 Sell Side Liquidity: rests just below support
🔼 Strong High: visible around 3,450 (target if bulls step in)
This is a textbook “liquidity trap or launch” zone.
📈 3. Possible Scenarios
🔵 Bullish Scenario:
If we see a fakeout and recovery from the yellow highlighted area:
Expect a sharp reversal, targeting the mid-channel and eventually the Strong High at 3,450+.
Smart Money may defend this level to grab external liquidity later.
🔴 Bearish Scenario:
If price closes strongly below support and holds beneath:
Sell-side liquidity sweep triggers, targeting deeper zones like 3,100 or even 3,025.
Trendline break + structure shift = full bearish continuation.
🎯 What to Watch For:
Rejection candlestick patterns near the yellow circle
Volume spikes on the bounce
Clean break + retest if bearish
This is a must-watch area for day traders and swing traders alike.
Stay reactive, not predictive!
🔁 Drop a 🔔 if you want to see how this plays out.
🧠 Follow @ChartNinjas88 for Smart Money insights on Gold and more!
GBP/USD Bulls Are Back? Institutions Are Loading Up1. Price Action & Zone Mapping
GBP/USD is consolidating above 1.3300 after a strong bullish reaction near the demand zone between 1.3040 and 1.3150 — an area that has already rejected price twice in recent months.
While the market structure still shows lower highs, the weekly candlestick formation signals a clear loss of bearish momentum. On the upside, the 1.3500–1.3600 zone remains the key supply area to break for a structural reversal to be confirmed.
2. COT Report – Institutional Positioning (as of May 6, 2025)
Non-Commercials (speculators) added +3,320 long positions and reduced -1,956 shorts, bringing the net long to +7,683 contracts — a strong bullish signal.
Commercials remain net short, but not with increasing aggression.
👉 The net positioning supports continued bullish bias, aligned with the recent technical rebound.
3. USD Index – Opposite Positioning
Non-Commercials increased both longs and shorts slightly on the US Dollar Index, but net positioning remains neutral with a slight bearish tilt.
This suggests a phase of indecision or mild retracement in the dollar, which indirectly supports GBP/USD upside.
4. GBP/USD Seasonality – Historical Behavior in May
According to MarketBulls data, May tends to be neutral-to-weak for the pair:
15-year avg: +0.0023
5-year avg: -0.016
2-year avg: +0.0069
Overall, this supports a ranging or corrective phase — not a high-conviction trending month. A breakout may need more confirmation.
5. Retail Sentiment
Currently, 60% of retail traders are short GBP/USD, with an average price of 1.2959, while only 40% are long from 1.3337.
👉 This imbalance favors a contrarian bullish narrative, especially if the market decides to run stops below 1.3300.
✅ Operational Outlook
GBP/USD is showing bullish consolidation signs, backed by:
Increasing institutional long interest
Contrarian retail sentiment (potential fuel for rallies)
Solid demand near 1.3040–1.3150
However, neutral seasonality and lack of structural breakout advise caution. A pullback towards 1.3200–1.3150 might come before any further upside move toward 1.3500.
🔍 Preferred Play: Wait for a retest of 1.3150 with price action confirmation before entering long. A strong breakout above 1.3350 would be early confirmation of renewed bullish pressure.
Trade Setup: DALMIA BHARAT (NSE)📊 Chart Summary:
Current Price: ₹2,009
EMA Support: 9 EMA (₹2,003.57) | 26 EMA (₹1,993.31)
Volume: Increasing with bullish candles
Price Action: Sustaining above key pivot and EMA levels
Momentum: Strong with minor consolidation
✅ Intraday Buy Setup (15min & 1h)
Buy Above: ₹2,013.50 (Break of intraday resistance zone)
Targets:
🎯 Target 1: ₹2,035.80 (Pivot R2)
🎯 Target 2: ₹2,058.30 (Pivot R3)
Stop Loss: ₹1,993 (below 26 EMA and pivot zone)
Risk:Reward: ~1:2 or better
For Education Purposes Only
No Clear Break Yet – Bounce or Bigger Correction?There haven’t been any major changes in Bitcoin’s directional structure compared to yesterday.
We saw a rebound while successfully holding the local low set during yesterday’s early morning session, and price action has followed the expected path quite well—reaching into the resistance zone and reacting accordingly.
The recent rebound from the $100,700 low may offer enough of a recovery move, but for a sustained continuation to the upside, we now need to see price hold the first support zone between $103,000 and $102,000, and ideally also preserve the second support around $101,500.
However, even if these support zones hold, failure to break previous highs could still result in another downward leg—potentially leading to a break back below $100K. This is an important scenario to keep in mind.
In short, we still need to determine whether this bounce is:
The completion of a correction wave and the start of a new uptrend
or
Just a temporary rebound before a deeper correction unfolds on the higher timeframe.
Even if we see meaningful bullish movement on the lower timeframes, it must also be confirmed across higher timeframes to be reliable. This is not a zone to hold blindly with blind optimism—whether long or short, if you’re in profit after a solid wave, consider partial profit-taking and manage your position proactively.
At the moment, the market remains in a range-bound structure, with neither the highs nor the lows broken decisively. I recommend using today’s update in conjunction with yesterday’s analysis—it will help you better understand the current structure, improve your positioning, and support your trading decisions.
Gabriel India Ltd (GABRIEL) – Weekly Resistance Breakout Setup✅ Trade Idea:
Price has reclaimed the 0.618 retracement at ₹608.25
Breakout above the ₹612 horizontal level (weekly closing basis)
Volume is rising and RSI shows strong uptrend
💰 Buy Zone:
Entry: ₹610 – ₹613
(preferably above ₹612 on strong 15min or 1H candle close)
🎯 Targets:
T1: ₹630 (previous minor supply zone)
T2: ₹646.65 (Fib 0.786 level)
T3: ₹695.55 (Fib 1.0 extension)
T4: ₹836.85 (1.618 extension for swing positional)
🛑 Stop Loss:
Intraday SL: ₹598 (below 9 EMA on 1H)
Swing SL: ₹581 (Fib 0.5 retracement support)
🔁 Strategy:
Wait for confirmation via volume + RSI > 60
Trail SL to ₹610 once ₹630 is hit
Lock partial profit near ₹646 if market sentiment weakens
For Education Purposes Only
2025-05-13 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Can’t get more bullish than this but I am not willing to buy the exact high but rather would wait for a pullback. The only thing that we turn me neutral right now, would be a > -2% down day and close below 20800.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 19700 - 20600
bull case: My lowest measured move target is 22350. Market should stay above 20000 if bulls want to get there and that’s likely all that’s important about the nasdaq for now. Clear breakout and follow-through. Bears gave up and we are again at peak euphoria.
Invalidation is below 20000.
bear case: Bears need a miracle below 20000. That’s it. Could this become a bull trap and an exhaustion gap? Always possible but I think it’s so unlikely that you can not make money betting on those odds. Path of least resistance is up, Opex or not. What I do think is that we could be close to the top of the channel we are in and we go sideways for the next days. I drew potential upper bull channel line but confirmation would only be if we don’t print anything above 21350 tomorrow.
Invalidation is above 20400.
short term: Neutral. Bulls grinding but for how many more tries? If that is bad English, you can suck my Bratwurst.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-04-20: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We are +18% from the lows and I do think, once this turns again, it will easily be the short trade of the year.
trade of the day: Shorting new highs continues to print money.
GBP/JPY Breaks Above 196.00! Continuation or Distribution?Detailed Techno-Macro Analysis – GBP/JPY
GBP/JPY has just completed a significant weekly structure breakout, pushing through a key supply zone between 195.00 and 196.30 — an area that historically acted as strong resistance. The breakout occurred via a high-volatility daily candle that closed above the zone, indicating strong bullish pressure.
🔍 Structure & Price Action
Price action shows higher lows and higher highs: a clearly defined bullish structure.
The breakout originated from an accumulation base, following a false bearish breakout below 188.50 (bull trap).
RSI is around 70 on the daily timeframe → strong momentum, but signs of potential exhaustion.
🧠 Key Zones Identified
Current weekly supply: 195.00 – 196.80 (being tested)
Next resistance: 198.70 – 199.50 (swing high and monthly level)
Immediate support: 194.00 – 192.80 (ideal area for pullback and long setups)
Structural support: 190.50 – 188.80
Invalidation: Daily close below 191.00 → potential reversal signal
📈 Macro & Fundamental Context
🇬🇧 UK Macro Update
Wages rising: +5.5% (above expectations) → could support further monetary tightening
Claimant count increasing → early weakness in the labor market
Mixed data, but wage growth bias favors GBP strength
🇯🇵 JPY Still Weak
BoJ remains ultra-accommodative
Verbal interventions from Japanese officials haven’t yet had structural impact
🪙 Retail Sentiment
70% of retail traders are short GBP/JPY, with an average price of 190.59
Only 30% are long, with an average price of 194.65
➡️ Current price (196.30) is above both → retail squeeze in play. Contrarian setup confirmed.
🧾 COT Report
GBP (Non-Commercial Speculators):
Long: +3,320 contracts
Short: -1,956 contracts
➡️ Net long positions increasing → favorable institutional exposure
JPY:
Mixed positions, with increases in both long and short → institutional neutrality on the yen
📅 Seasonality – GBP/JPY
May is historically bearish on both 5Y and 20Y timeframes:
5Y: -2.52%
20Y: -0.43%
Only the 2Y pattern shows a positive return
➡️ Negative seasonality vs. bullish technical structure → conflict worth watching
🔍 Execution Summary
The bullish breakout is strong and supported by sentiment and institutional positioning, but price is now entering a potential distribution zone, where profit-taking could increase.
👉 Main scenario: technical pullback toward 194.00–192.80 for possible long entries, targeting 198.50–199.50
👉 Alternative scenario: daily close below 191.00 → bias reversal and bearish continuation
EURJPY Sell - May 13, 2025📍Context:
Reaction from Daily Orderblock
Clear 15m BOS
Two Asia lows & a gap in our direction
Entry at 15m OB with 0.5% risk
If price gives a 1m BOS within the OB, I’ll add another 0.5% to go full risk.
Even though there’s a 5m OB above, I’m comfortable taking the trade if we show signs of rejection.
🎯 TP: Targeting Asia lows and continuation down with clean structure.
Gold Bulls Are Loading — Don’t Miss the Fair Value Launch Zone🔍 XAUUSD 30M | Smart Money Breakdown
Gold just gave a liquidation + FVG bounce setup with a high-probability bullish reaction.
Let’s break it down like a sniper 🧠👇
🔻 1. Falling Channel Structure
Gold’s been grinding down in a neat descending channel, consistently taking out liquidity beneath swing lows.
This compression usually ends in aggressive expansion — and Smart Money knows it.
🔁 2. FVG Reclaim = Institutional Entry Zone
The chart shows a Fair Value Gap (FVG) perfectly respected around $3,226 – $3,236.
Price dipped into this imbalance and is now reacting — textbook Smart Money entry.
You're seeing clear demand stepping in after a sell-side liquidity sweep.
📈 3. Target = Upper Channel + Imbalance Fill
If momentum holds, Gold likely reaches for the upper channel resistance and fills the imbalance zone up to ~$3,280+.
That’s your primary draw on liquidity.
🎯 4. Trade Plan (RR ~3:1)
📍 Entry: Around FVG zone ($3,226–$3,236)
❌ Stop-Loss: Below the FVG zone
✅ TP: $3,280 (upper channel tap)
Smart Money is entering early while retail waits for confirmation breakouts 👀
🧩 Key Confluences:
✅ Falling Channel
✅ Fair Value Gap Tap
✅ Bullish Engulfing Response
✅ Clean RRR Setup
✅ Liquidity Sweep Prior to Entry
📊 Summary:
This setup screams Smart Money Accumulation. Gold hunts the lows, reclaims the imbalance, and is now gearing up for a bullish run. The reaction off the FVG is your golden ticket.
Let price work — don’t chase, just manage risk like a pro.
💬 Comment “💰 XAU Sniper Setup” if you caught this one early!
⚔️ Follow @ChartNinjas88 for elite Smart Money plays.
👀 Tag a trader still shorting this range 😅
BTCUSD ChoCh + FVG Rejection = Drop Incoming🧠 Smart Money Concepts | BTCUSD 1H Breakdown
Here’s a crystal-clear Smart Money setup on Bitcoin that screams bearish intent. The wedge was a trap, the ChoCh confirmed the flip, and now price is reaching back into a Fair Value Gap that’s likely to reject hard.
Let’s dissect the setup:
🧱 1. Structure: Rising Wedge + ChoCh
Bitcoin climbed with a grinding structure inside a rising wedge — classic liquidity trap.
Smart Money lured in longs, then snapped structure (ChoCh) at ~102,700 — that’s your reversal confirmation.
📉 2. Fair Value Gap (FVG) Rejection Zone
After the ChoCh, price retraced into a juicy FVG zone around 103,219 – 103,913 —
right below a Strong High at 105,900. Inducement bait for breakout traders.
That’s premium pricing in a bearish environment = high-probability short.
🎯 3. Liquidity Target: Weak Low + Sell Side Sweep
Price is eyeing the Weak Low at 99,114, and below that sits the real magnet:
Sell Side Liquidity at ~98,800. That’s your ultimate draw.
📐 4. Trade Idea (R:R Approx. 3.5:1)
📍 Entry Zone: 103,200–103,900 (FVG zone)
❌ SL: Above Strong High @ 106,000
✅ TP1: Weak Low at 99,114
🏁 TP2: Sell Side Liquidity @ ~98,800
🧩 Confluences Checklist:
✅ Rising Wedge Trap
✅ ChoCh Confirmed
✅ FVG in Premium Zone
✅ Bearish Order Flow
✅ Weak Low + Sell Side as Target
⚠️ Caution:
Don’t short blindly. Wait for reaction in the FVG zone — ideally a rejection wick or lower timeframe BOS.
If price closes above the Strong High — setup is invalidated.
📊 Summary:
This BTCUSD setup is dripping with manipulation. Smart Money engineered a wedge, flipped structure, and is now likely to distribute before the next leg down.
Stay sharp. Trade with the big players, not against them.
💬 Type “🚨 BTC Short Alert” in the comments if you caught this setup too.
📉 Follow @ChartNinjas88 for more SMC alpha and sniper setups.
👀 Tag a fellow trader who thinks wedges always break upward 😂
GJ-Tue-13/05/25 TDA-Eyes on US CPI, weekend gap unfilled yet!Analysis done directly on the chart
Follow for more, possible live trade updates!
Stay up to date if you are daytrader (even if you aren't)
with Financial Juice, real live updates on flash news
speeches and a lot of more!
Not financial advice, DYOR.
Market Flow Strategy
Mister Y
GU-Tue-13/05/25 TDA-Flash news, bearish continuation before CPI!Analysis done directly on the chart
Sharing live trade updates!
Flash news yesterday to cause the price to continue
the bearish momentum breaking through strong
supports.
SOURCE: Financial Juice
If you are a daytrader (even if aren't) you should be
aware of flash news that can happen at any time and
cause price to move suddenly.
Not financial advice, DYOR.
Market Flow Strategy
Mister Y
Caught the Short? CPI Ahead, and This Pullback Isn’t Over YetIf you’ve been following the recent updates, I believe you were well-prepared for this move.
For the past few days, I repeatedly emphasized that we may not break through the supply zone in one go—and now, those who entered short positions likely enjoyed some solid profits.
Currently, we’re seeing a strong rebound from the second support zone.
This is the first real, sharp correction we’ve seen since the strong bullish trend began from the 74K–83K region, and that alone should remind us to proceed with caution going forward.
To maintain the broader uptrend, the market needs to do one of two things:
Either preserve the local low formed during the latest drop and climb from there (ideal scenario),
Or, if it dips lower once more, form a sideways base before recovering again.
This structure would confirm that the trend remains healthy and intact.
Right now, we must assess whether this bounce leads to continuation or if it’s just a relief rally before a deeper wave down.
If we break the structure and revisit previous demand zones, we want to see price hold and reverse from those levels—that’s the key confirmation.
The previous slow grind-up ("step-by-step climb") has now been disrupted.
This shift increases the likelihood of a deeper retracement before any new highs, especially with today's CPI data potentially triggering strong volatility and head-fake moves in both directions.
If price fails to push higher from here, we may see a breakdown below the psychological 100K level.
We’re still observing a bearish structure on the lower timeframes, as the price fails to make higher highs—so please, avoid jumping into positions impulsively.
This is the correction we’ve been waiting for, and those who followed the updates likely navigated it well.
However, be aware:
When a market climbs on strong green candles, the subsequent drop can be equally harsh, especially if profit-taking meets negative macro headlines.
So, wait for confirmation—whether it’s a bounce that protects support or a break that reclaims structure. Entering after such confirmation will always get you better entries than acting out of fear.
As I’ve said many times:
You don’t need to FOMO into every pump.
Opportunities always come again. And history shows us—trading out of impatience or greed rarely ends well.
Stay focused, stay patient, and I hope your next trade brings another solid win.