Priceactionanalysis
Gold price analysis July 24Fundamental analysis:
Gold prices attracted some buying activity on Wednesday and recovered further from a more than one-week low touched on Monday. The momentum lifted the precious metal to fresh weekly highs around the $2,418 region during the Asian session and was backed by a combination of supportive factors.
Growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin its rate-cutting cycle in September, along with US political developments, prompted some intraday selling around USD and acts as a driving force for Gold prices. However, traders may refrain from positive bets and prefer to wait for further signals on the Fed's policy path. As a result, the focus remains on US Q2 GDP data and the US Personal Consumption Price Index (PCE), expected on Thursday and Friday. Meanwhile, global PMIs will be looked at for short-term momentum.
Technical analysis:
From a technical perspective, this week's recovery from the $2,385 resistance level signals the end of the downtrend of recent days as wave 5 has ended and the abc wave of the elliot wave pattern has also ended. around 2411. The aforementioned 2385 area will now act as an important pivotal point, which if broken decisively will pave the way for deeper losses. Gold prices could then slide to the 61.8% Fibo level, around the $2,366-$2,365 area.
On the other hand, any further upside move is likely to face some resistance near the $2,420-2,422 zone above which a fresh short squeeze could lift Gold prices to the $2,430-2,432 zone. Momentum could extend again to retest all-time highs, around the $2,482 region.
Resistance: 2420 - 2431 - 2436 - 2450
Support: 2385 - 2375 - 2368 - 2360
SELL 2422 - 2420 stoploss 2425
SELL 2431 - 2433 stoploss 2437
BUY 2386 - 2384 stoploss 2380
BUY 2373 - 2375 stoploss 2369
Collecting Rollover while the TRY RangesThe CBRT has raised rates from 8.5% in June 2023 to currently standing at 50%. There was a recent CBRT meeting where rates where held at 50%. There has been a roll coaster for inflation YoY which was below 20% in 2020, rose as high as 36% in 2021, pushed up to 85.50% in 2022, dropped in 2023 to around 38% at its lowest, then pushed higher to standing at 69.8% currently. It is projected that inflation will push above the 70% lvl this year and eventually cap out and start pushing lower. The Lira is being hit hard and has lost over 80% of its value over five years due to the unorthodox method the President implemented.
But with this said, there are things going for the TRY, which is a nice carry trade (I'm in it to win it...corny (yeah I know)), with around an 18%-27% annualized gain (fluctuates), this could be some serious gains (and price has been ranging, so that is good). With the FED potentially go to lower rates in September and with the CBRT having rates at 50%, this could cause the TRY to either keep ranging or eventually push lower. But the CBRT might have to raise rates higher in order to fight inflation that is almost 20% higher than its interest rate. This makes the 30 lvl seem that much more plausible to be hit. Additionally, price is trading towards the 32 lvl and has attempted to trade below the 30 lvl a couple of times. So another hit to the 30 lvl support could potentially push it to my price target of around 27 (mean while I'll be able to collect some rollover). A standard lot holding this pair could bring in around $49 a day (depending on the rate for that day) which is a decent amount. The margin requirement for this pair, at least with my broker is 1:4, which means this pair is highly volatile and risky.
This pair can move thousands of pips in a matter of seconds and the spreads are sometimes outrageous. But, around a 1.2 micro lot would be less than $375 in margin, each pip would be a $0.01 move, and rollover per day earned would be around $0.56 a day.
The is a good chance that price will stay were it is at and push lower. The 33-35 lvl is the cap, but for price to push as high as 35, there would have to some strong catalysts to make that happen. I think this is all a self-fulling prophecy with all waiting to see when the FED will make its move. For now, the plan is to keep building in this pair, collect rollover, and wait until at least the 30 lvl is hit to make another decision on whether I want to see it play through to the 27 lvl.
SWING IDEA - ONGCOil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), India's largest oil and gas exploration and production company, is showing technical signals that suggest a promising swing trading opportunity.
Reasons are listed below :
285 Resistance Level: The 285 level has been a significant resistance zone and has been tested multiple times. The price is now attempting to break through this level, indicating strong bullish momentum.
Bullish Marubozu Candle on Daily Timeframe : The recent formation of a bullish marubozu candle on the daily chart indicates strong buying pressure and suggests potential for further upward movement.
Breaking 5+ Months Consolidation with Volumes : The stock is breaking out of a consolidation phase that lasted over 5 months, supported by increased trading volumes, signaling a potential new bullish trend.
Trading Above 50 and 200 EMA : The stock is trading above both the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA), reinforcing the bullish sentiment and providing strong support levels.
Target - 335
Stoploss - Daily close below 260
DISCLAIMER -
Decisions to buy, sell, hold or trade in securities, commodities and other investments involve risk and are best made based on the advice of qualified financial professionals. Any trading in securities or other investments involves a risk of substantial losses. The practice of "Day Trading" involves particularly high risks and can cause you to lose substantial sums of money. Before undertaking any trading program, you should consult a qualified financial professional. Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition and ability to bear financial risks. Under no circumstances shall we be liable for any loss or damage you or anyone else incurs as a result of any trading or investment activity that you or anyone else engages in based on any information or material you receive through TradingView or our services.
@visionary.growth.insights
GBPUSD analysis new weekFundamental analysis:
GBP/USD ended the trading session high in a two-week rally as the US dollar generally came under pressure from investors who flocked to hopes of a Federal Reserve cut. interest rates in September. Markets are ignoring the unexpected rise in wholesale inflation according to the Producer Price Index (PPI).
Despite a significant increase in manufacturing-level inflation, market attention turned to the decline in Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation at the start of the week, leading to higher expectations of a rate cut capacity.
Next week, the Pound will face the UK Consumer Price Inflation Index (CPI), scheduled for release next Wednesday. UK Labor and Retail Sales data will be released in the second half of the week, and on the Greenback side, US Retail Sales will decline to start the week on Tuesday.
Technical analysis:
GBPUSD is rising within the range, approaching this year's high at 1.30000. Since breaking this peak of 1.28900 GBPUSD has received bullish confirmation, opening up the next upside target at the highs highest in a year. In the long term, GBPUSD is still in a strong uptrend and has not shown signs of recovery, showing the possibility of price increases to a higher level. A decisive break above the 1.30000 high would open up targets at 1.31200. The recovery can find the important support areas breaking out 1.28600 and deeper into the strong support area of the two EMA lines around 1.27100.
Support: 1.28500-1.27100
Resistance: 1.30000-1.31200
SELL GBPUSD zone 1.31200-131400 Stoploss 1.31500
BUY GBPUSD zone 1.28500-1.28300 Stoploss 1.28200
GBPUSD analysis July 22 - July 27🌐Fundamental analysis
The British Pound (GBP) extended its correction compared to most other currency pairs. The British currency continues to slide as the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) reports weaker-than-expected June Retail Sales data.
BoE officials are hesitant to back a move to normalize policy as the US Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains stubborn amid persistent inflation in the services sector.
Meanwhile, an expected deceleration in Average Earnings data for the three months ended May, a key measure of wage growth that drives services inflation, failed to lift expectations. about the BoE cutting interest rates in August because the current pace is still higher than needed to maintain stability to contain price pressures.
🕯Technical analysis
The British Pound corrected sharply to near 1.2920 against the US Dollar. GBP/USD weakened as gains stalled after hitting a new yearly high of 1.3044 on Wednesday.
The upward sloping moving average (EMA) near 1.2800 suggests that the uptrend remains intact. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) fell after turning slightly overbought and is expected to find a cushion near 60.00.
On the positive side, the two-year high near 1.3140 will be the main resistance area for GBPUSD. Last week's peak around 1,304 could also halt the pair's surge and create a double top pattern for the pair to become more stable. On the other hand, the 1.285 and 1.277 support levels become the two main support zones keeping GBPUSD in the rising price channel. If there is a sell-off that pushes the pair beyond the price channel, it could extend the price slide to the 1,262 area, the lowest bottom in two weeks.
Resistance: 1,304-1,314-1,330
Support: 1.285-1.277-1.262
SELL GBPUSD 1.314-1.316 Stoploss 1.317
BUY GBPUSD 1,280-1,278 Stoploss 1,276
Will a higher printing of PCE impair Gold bull?Macro theme:
The market is anticipating that the Fed will cut rates three times this year following the release of lower CPI numbers, which have fueled optimism that inflation is under control. Investors expect rate cuts in Sep, Nov, and Dec. This outlook is quite optimistic, given that the overall state of the US economy may not be dire enough to necessitate such aggressive measures immediately. The market is also awaiting the PCE data at the end of this week to confirm the disinflation trend further.
Technical theme:
- From a technical perspective, after topping at 2483, Gold had a significant correction to close below both the ascending channel and key support area 2420-2440. The price established a trading range of 2384-2440 and waited for an apparent breakout.
- If Gold closes above its resistance area around 2420-2440, it may retest its last swing high at 2483.
- On the contrary, if Gold extends its loss to below 2384, it may decline to 2330-2350 area.
SWING IDEA - BAYER CROPSCIENCEBayer CropScience , a global leader in agricultural science, is exhibiting technical indicators that suggest a promising swing trading opportunity.
Reasons are listed below :
6500 Resistance Breakout : The 6500 level has been a significant resistance zone. The price is now breaking out above this level, indicating strong bullish momentum.
Breaking 4+ Year Consolidation Phase : The stock is breaking out of a long consolidation phase that lasted over 4 years, signaling a potential new bullish trend.
Strong Bullish Marubozu Candle on Weekly Timeframe : The recent formation of a bullish marubozu candle on the weekly chart indicates strong buying pressure and suggests potential for further upward movement.
Bounced Back from Golden Fibonacci Zone : The stock has bounced back from the golden Fibonacci retracement level (0.618), a key area where prices often rebound, indicating potential for an upward move.
Trading Above 50 and 200 EMA on Weekly Timeframe : The stock is trading above both the 50-week and 200-week exponential moving averages (EMA), reinforcing the bullish sentiment and providing strong support levels.
Trading at All-Time High : The stock is trading at its all-time high, suggesting strong market confidence and potential for further gains.
Target - 7670 // 8700
Stoploss - weekly close below 5600
DISCLAIMER -
Decisions to buy, sell, hold or trade in securities, commodities and other investments involve risk and are best made based on the advice of qualified financial professionals. Any trading in securities or other investments involves a risk of substantial losses. The practice of "Day Trading" involves particularly high risks and can cause you to lose substantial sums of money. Before undertaking any trading program, you should consult a qualified financial professional. Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition and ability to bear financial risks. Under no circumstances shall we be liable for any loss or damage you or anyone else incurs as a result of any trading or investment activity that you or anyone else engages in based on any information or material you receive through TradingView or our services.
@visionary.growth.insights
SWING IDEA - INDRAPRASTHA GAS (IGL)Consider a compelling swing trade opportunity in Indraprastha Gas Limited (IGL) , a leading natural gas distribution company in India.
Reasons are listed below :
Attempt to Break Triangle Pattern : IGL is attempting to break out of a triangle pattern, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment and the beginning of a new trend.
Bullish Marubozu on Daily Timeframe : The presence of a bullish Marubozu candlestick pattern on the daily timeframe signals strong buying momentum and potential upward movement.
Broke Consolidation of 5 Months : IGL has broken out of a consolidation phase lasting 5 months, suggesting a breakout from range-bound trading and potential sustained upward movement.
50 and 200 EMA Support on Weekly Timeframe : The stock finds support at both the 50 and 200 Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) on the weekly timeframe, indicating bullish momentum and potential for trend continuation.
Constant Higher Highs : IGL consistently forms higher highs, reflecting a trend of increasing bullish momentum and reinforcing the potential for further gains.
Target - 515 // 585
Stoploss - weekly close below 394
DISCLAIMER -
Decisions to buy, sell, hold or trade in securities, commodities and other investments involve risk and are best made based on the advice of qualified financial professionals. Any trading in securities or other investments involves a risk of substantial losses. The practice of "Day Trading" involves particularly high risks and can cause you to lose substantial sums of money. Before undertaking any trading program, you should consult a qualified financial professional. Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition and ability to bear financial risks. Under no circumstances shall we be liable for any loss or damage you or anyone else incurs as a result of any trading or investment activity that you or anyone else engages in based on any information or material you receive through TradingView or our services.
@visionary.growth.insights
SWING IDEA - CYIENT Cyient , a global engineering and technology solutions company, is displaying technical indicators that suggest a potential swing trading opportunity.
Reasons are listed below :
1700 Support Zone : The 1700 level has been established as a strong support zone, providing a solid base for potential upward movement.
Double Bottom Pattern : The formation of a double bottom pattern indicates a potential reversal from the downtrend, signaling a bullish outlook.
Bullish Hammer Candle on Weekly Timeframe : The presence of a bullish hammer candle on the weekly chart suggests a reversal in sentiment from bearish to bullish, indicating strong buying pressure.
Engulfed 6 Weekly Candles : A recent bullish candle has engulfed the previous 6 weekly candles, demonstrating significant buying interest and a potential shift in trend.
0.382 Fibonacci Support : The stock is finding support at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, a key area where prices often bounce back, indicating potential for an upward move.
50 EMA Support : The stock is supported by the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), reinforcing the bullish sentiment and providing a strong support level.
Target - 2190 // 2460
Stoploss - weekly close below 1660
Disclaimer :
Decisions to buy, sell, hold or trade in securities, commodities and other investments involve risk and are best made based on the advice of qualified financial professionals. Any trading in securities or other investments involves a risk of substantial losses. The practice of "Day Trading" involves particularly high risks and can cause you to lose substantial sums of money. Before undertaking any trading program, you should consult a qualified financial professional. Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition and ability to bear financial risks. Under no circumstances shall we be liable for any loss or damage you or anyone else incurs as a result of any trading or investment activity that you or anyone else engages in based on any information or material you receive through TradingView or our services.
@visionary.growth.insights
Gold's Next Big Move: Will XAUUSD Break Resistance or Crash? Chart 1: 4-Hour Timeframe
Trend Analysis:
The chart shows a clear upward trend, forming higher highs and higher lows.
A wedge pattern is visible with converging trend lines indicating a potential breakout scenario.
Key Levels:
Support: Around 2348.248 (4hr LQZ).
Resistance: Approximately 2412.240.
Major Resistance: The upper trendline around 2480.
Recent Price Action:
The price has recently tested the lower trendline support and is currently retracing upwards.
A lower high (LH) has formed around 2480, suggesting a potential reversal or consolidation phase.
Potential Scenarios:
Bullish: If the price breaks above the 2412 resistance, it may retest the upper trendline around 2480.
Bearish: A break below the 4hr LQZ at 2348.248 could signal further downside towards the daily LQZ at 2267.320.
Chart 2: 1-Hour Timeframe
Trend Analysis:
A shorter-term view confirming the upward trend with higher highs and higher lows.
The formation of a wedge pattern indicates consolidation within a narrowing price range.
Key Levels:
Support: Around 2348.248 (4hr LQZ).
Resistance: Approximately 2412.240, coinciding with the previous chart.
Recent Price Action:
Price recently bounced off the 4hr LQZ support level and is now hovering near the 2412 resistance.
The lower high (LH) indicates sellers are stepping in around the 2412 level.
Potential Scenarios:
Bullish: Breaking and closing above 2412 could lead to further upside towards 2480.
Bearish: Rejection at 2412 and a break below recent lows could target the 4hr LQZ support at 2348.248.
Chart 3: 15-Minute Timeframe
Trend Analysis:
Short-term consolidation observed within a wedge pattern.
Recent price action indicates potential for a breakout or breakdown from this pattern.
Key Levels:
Support: Around 2348.248 (4hr LQZ).
Resistance: Approximately 2412.240.
Recent Price Action:
Price is consolidating just below the 2412 resistance level, forming a wedge pattern.
The 15-minute timeframe shows the price struggling to break above 2412.
Potential Scenarios:
Bullish: A breakout above the wedge and 2412 resistance could lead to a quick move towards 2480.
Bearish: A breakdown from the wedge could revisit the 4hr LQZ support at 2348.248.
Conclusion
The overall trend across multiple timeframes remains bullish with key resistance at 2412 and significant support at 2348.248. A break above 2412 could signal further upside towards 2480, while a failure to break and sustain above this level may lead to consolidation or a pullback to the 4hr LQZ support. Monitoring price action around these key levels will provide insights into the next directional move.
Gold will soon hit the 2500 markFundamental analysis
Gold prices edged up slightly above $2,470 a troy ounce on Thursday, remaining near record highs amid growing optimism that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in September. Low Interest Rates makes non-yielding assets like Gold more attractive to investors.
Federal Reserve officials have expressed growing confidence that the pace of price increases is now more in line with policymakers' goals. Traders will likely keep an eye on weekly US Initial Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index on Thursday, along with a speech by the Fed's Lorie Logan.
Technical analysis
However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned slightly below the 70 level, suggesting confirmation of the bullish trend but also overbought conditions for the asset. A correction can be expected in the short term.
. A breakout above this 2470 level could see the pair test the old peak of 2484 and a gradual move towards the psychological level of 2500
On the downside, the Exponential Moving Average (EMA 34) on the h4 timeframe is forming two strong support levels at 2,440 which could act as immediate support, followed by the lower boundary of the ascending channel at $2,421. A break below the latter could put downward pressure on the XAU/USD pair to navigate the area around the regression support at $2,290.
Support: 2450 - 2442 - 2432
Resistance: 2485 - 2495 - 2500 - 2515 - 2525
BUY zone 2442 - 2440 stoploss 2436
BUY zone 2432 - 2430 stoploss 2426
SELL zone 2485 stoploss 2490
SELL zone 2500 stoploss 2500
GOLD analysis week 30Fundamental analysis
Throughout the weekend, gold prices fell due to the strength of the US Dollar and profit-taking activities in the market. This week, the gold market ended up in a key price position again, testing key support at the initial price of $2,400/ounce.
Earlier, gold prices hit a record high this week on growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September.
Currently, gold prices are closely aligned with interest rate expectations and gold's climb to record highs also coincides with expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin its easing cycle in September. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market is pricing in a more than 98.1% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in September, increasing the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets such as Gold.
The only risk that could reverse gold's uptrend is a surprise increase in inflation, making investors doubt the possibility of interest rate cuts. However, recent data along with comments from the Fed suggest that the likelihood of inflation suddenly reaching the Fed's 2% target is very low.
Investors will have to wait until Friday for information on the June core Personal Consumer Expenditure Price Index (PCE). Last month, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation showed a 2.6% increase.
Besides inflation data, the market will also focus on US GDP data.
In terms of central bank activity, the Bank of Canada will announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday, with economists believing that weaker inflation data will pave the way for the central bank to cut interest rates. capacity.
Technical analysis
Gold prices showed that after reaching an all-time high last week, gold corrected downward for three consecutive sessions and ended the week at a key support point, the initial price of $2,400.
This $2,400 level is not only a base price but also a horizontal support and short-term trendline. While gold continues to sell below its initial price of $2,400, it is at risk of a deeper decline with the next target being the 34 moving average on the daily time frame.
However, with a close at $2,400, the technical uptrend has not yet reversed. Meanwhile, the long-term trend of gold is still completely towards the possibility of price increase.
As long as gold remains above the 2398 EMA, pullbacks should only be considered corrective moves, profit-taking activities in the market that do not change the main trend. Notable technical levels are listed as follows:
Support: 2392 - 2382 - 2371 - 2360 - 2352
Resistance: 2406 - 2420 - 2427 - 2436 - 2450 - 2467
DOGE/USDT ELLIOT PRICE ACTIONHi guys, this is my overview for DOGE/USDT, feel free to check it and write your feedback in the comments👊
Some days ago, the price entered a falling channel, where it at once broke $0.10 level and fell to the support line.
Next, the price bounced from this line and soon broke the $0.10 level again and made the false breakout with the Dragon Fly candlestick
Sometime later, the price traded near the $ 0.011 level, and a not long time ago broke it, after which rose to the resistance line of the channel.
Possibly, the price can Reach to a new high in about 100 days
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with a like/boost and advice in the comments❤️
Learn How to Apply Top-Down Multiple Time Frame Analysis
In this article, we will discuss how to apply Multiple Time Frame Analysis in trading .
I will teach you how to apply different time frames and will share with you some useful tips and example of a real trade that I take with Top-Down Analysis strategy.
Firstly, let's briefly define the classification of time frames that we will discuss:
There are 3 main categories of time frames:
1️⃣ Higher time frames
2️⃣ Trading time frames
3️⃣ Lower time frames
Higher Time Frames Analysis
1️⃣ Higher time frames are used for identification of the market trend and global picture. Weekly and daily time frames belong to this category.
The analysis of these time frames is the most important .
On these time frames, we make predictions and forecast the future direction of the market with trend analysis and we identify the levels , the areas from where we will trade our predictions with structure analysis .
Above is the example of a daily time frame analysis on NZDCAD.
We see that the market is trading in a strong bullish trend.
I underlined important support and resistance levels.
The supports will provide the safest zones to buy the market from anticipating a bullish trend continuation.
Trading Time Frames
2️⃣ Trading time frames are the time frames where the positions are opened . The analysis of these time frames initiates only after the market reaches the underlined trading levels, the areas on higher time frames.
My trading time frames are 4h/1h. There I am looking for a confirmation of the strength of the structures that I spotted on higher time frames. There are multiple ways to confirm that. My confirmations are the reversal price action patterns.
Once the confirmation is spotted, the position is opened.
Analyzing the reaction of the price to Support 1 on 1H time frame on NZDCAD pair, I spotted a strong bullish confirmation - a triple bottom formation.
A long position is opened on a retest of a broken neckline.
Lower Time Frames
3️⃣ Lower time frames are 30/15 minutes charts. Even though these time frames are NOT applied for trading, occasionally they provide some extra clues . Also, these time frames can be applied by riskier traders for opening trading positions before the confirmation is spotted on trading time frames.
Before the price broke a neckline of a triple bottom formation on an hourly time frame on NZDCAD, it broke a resistance line of a symmetrical triangle formation on 15 minutes time frame. It was an earlier and riskier confirmation to buy.
Learn to apply these 3 categories of time frames in a combination. Start your analysis with the highest time frame and steadily go lower, identifying more and more clues.
You will be impressed how efficient that strategy is.
GBPUSD Medium cycle GBPUSD was in the bullish channel and now its broken that and its on a supportive level.
According to my last idea,
i said if its hunt the channel sooner that we expected its show the bearish trend power.
Then the bullish channel broke.
but now the price on a supportive level and i think the trend can reversal.
also the DXY confirm that because its in a resistance level.
its show dollar will be weak.
Its just my personal comment please don't trade whit this.
I have no responsibility for your money.
XAUUSD | Bearish Divergence Currently, XAUUSD (Gold) is in an uptrend, making new higher highs and higher lows, and moving within a parallel channel supported by its trendline. Additionally, fundamental factors are pushing gold to make new higher highs.
However, on the 1-hour time frame, there is a hidden bearish divergence, indicating a potential trend change to a downtrend. This suggests that soon, new lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) may form, and we can expect the price to test the trendline.
In summary:
Uptrend : Gold is making higher highs and higher lows and moving within a parallel channel supported by a trendline.
Fundamentals : Supporting the uptrend and pushing gold to new highs.
Hidden Bearish Divergence : On the 1-hour time frame, indicating a potential trend change to a downtrend.
Expectation : Potential formation of lower highs and lower lows, with the price possibly testing the trendline.
These signals suggest that while gold is currently in an uptrend, there are signs of a possible reversal. It is important to monitor these indicators and conduct further analysis before making trading decisions.