GOLD The scenario of creating a new peak is very closeRegarding developments and results last week: The international gold market received a lot of economic information from major economies such as the US, China, and Europe. In particular, the US releases producer price index data. (PPI) and consumer price index (CPI) April 2024. Looking at gold's volatility and fluctuation range this week, it is predicted that this precious metal will return to record highs sooner than expected.
Conclusion about gold and trend: I am optimistic about gold next week. The USD is losing a bit of value along with Treasury bond yields also falling. Additionally, technically based on tests last month and to date, there are signs of acceptance above the $2400 price point. This opens the door to a possible increase to $2,500.
Overall, gold confirmed a trend change above the $2400 level which buyers actively defended on the basis of a bullish wave materializing. It is likely that the market will try to change the trend. At this point, the realization phase will take shape. We await confirmation of a trend change for further strengthening.
After gold moved above the EMA21 level it also achieved the target increases noticed by readers in last week's weekly edition at $2,400 and $2,417.
Temporarily, gold is limited by resistance at $2,417 but bullish momentum remains strong with the RSI pointing up without reaching the overbought level.
Gold's move above $2,417 will continue to push it toward an all-time high in the $2,430 area. Meanwhile, even if gold corrects downward, as long as it remains operating within the trend price channel ©, the short-term outlook is still bullish and price activity above EMA21 gives it more grounds to rise. More prices in the near future.
In the coming week, the technical conditions of gold prices lean towards a bullish outlook and notable price levels will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,400 – 2,397USD
Resistance: 2,417 – 2,430USD
Priceactionanalysis
EURUSD analysis week 21📌After strong gains on Wednesday, EUR/USD struggled to maintain upward momentum and closed slightly lower on Thursday. The pair rebounded on Thursday with USD weakness following the news. Unemployment claims announced. Up to now this pair has remained relatively calm, holding around the 1.0870 level.
📌The ECB is weighing the extent of interest rate cuts after the initial cut planned for next month. While inflation is gradually decreasing toward the 2% target, much uncertainty remains. Officials are particularly focused on wage growth, which remains rapid, as well as geopolitical threats such as tensions in the Middle East.
📌The RSI fell on Thursday but remained steady above 60, suggesting the recent pullback may have been a technical correction rather than a trend reversal.
📌EUR/USD still maintains a short-term uptrend. The pair has dropped below 1.0860, but is currently trading well above the 34.89 EMA on the 1H chart at 1.0802. Besides, the recent bullish momentum has brought EUR/USD back above the 34.89 EMA on the daily chart at 1.0799. Compared to recent lows around 1.0600.EUR/USD is currently aiming for the March peak of 1.0980. This is considered an important resistance level. If buyers want to push EUR/USD back up to the psychological level of 1.1000, they will have to overcome this barrier.
Trading signals
SELL zone 1,093-1,095 SL 1,097
BUY zone 1,081-1,079 SL 1,076
Want to spot a turning point in trend before it happens?Want to spot a turning point in trend before it happens? Use Elliott wave parallel channel
This chart shows the GBP/JPY currency pair using monthly candlesticks. The advance from Sep 2011 to June 2015 can be labeled as an impulse wave (A). From that high, the pair declined in three waves labeled as wave (B) of a Zigzag A-B-C correction with an expanding diagonal characteristic in the C wave position.
As a rule, in a Zigzag rally, wave B notably terminates above the origin of wave A. When wave (C) advance of a zigzag rally is in operation, we can forecast where wave (C) might end.
We can use Elliott wave channel projection by connecting the origin of wave (A) with the end of wave (B) and then drawing a parallel line from the end of wave (A). As a guideline, the resulting channel gives us a potential target for the wave (C) endpoint.
Moreover, we can also use ratio analysis to improve the odds. As a guideline, in Zigzag formations, wave (C) commonly ends after traveling the same length as wave (A). Observe this level corresponds with the Elliott wave channel projection.
This cluster of evidence hints at wave (C) advance from Mar 2020 is in late stages and that prices are approaching a major top.
Gold price today (May 16): Strong increase againWorld gold prices increased sharply with spot gold increasing by 27.4 USD to 2,385 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at 2,391.8 USD/ounce, up 31.9 USD compared to yesterday morning.
Gold prices rose to their highest level in more than 3 weeks on May 15 (US time) thanks to support from the weakness of the greenback and falling yields after the latest inflation report. Published data showed that the US consumer price index in April increased less than expected, increasing the possibility of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The dollar fell 0.5% to its lowest level in more than a month, making gold more attractive to holders of other currencies. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields also hit a more than 1-month low.
The CPI rose 0.3% last month after rising 0.4% in March and February, suggesting inflation continued its downward trend at the beginning of the second quarter. This has pushed up financial market expectations of an interest rate cut in September. According to Reuters poll results, economists forecast CPI to increase 0.4% in the month and up 3.4% over the month. with the same period last year.
Technically,
Bullish gold futures have a solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close for June futures above solid resistance at $2,400 an ounce.
Analysis of technical prospects for gold prices
After breaking the $2,366 level yesterday, gold has also confirmed the breakout of the falling price channel and now the target increase could be aimed at the raw price point of $2,400 in the short term and more to the $2,417 level.
In addition, gold also forms an increasing price channel in the short term and this will technically be the trend price channel for gold prices in the near future. As long as gold remains above the EMA21 and within the price channel, the outlook is technically bullish.
During the day, the uptrend in gold prices will be noticed by the following technical levels.
Support: 2,377 – 2,366 - 2352 USD
Resistance: 2,400 – 2417 - 2430 USD
Gold will remain bullish tomorrow as wellFor tomorrow, the resistance areas are: 2400 and 2410. The support area we're finding on the M30 is at 2380. These levels will perform tomorrow, and we should also keep an eye on geopolitical events. Additionally, tomorrow we have Unemployment Claims news affecting us.
GBJJPY is showing a sell trendOANDA:GBPJPY The H1 trendline of GBPJPY has been broken, and the setup has already been shared in the e minds. Now, we just need to wait for a retest for the entry setup to form. Also, there is support, which will act as resistance. Support levels are: 196.100-195.900. The entry has been taken from the H4 Fibonacci level of 0.786
GOLD slight recovery for the long uptrendGold prices extended gains near $2,360 on Monday during the first hour of trading in Asia. Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East boost safe-haven flows and benefit precious metals.
Gold prices traded positively during the day. The yellow metal kept the bullish trend intact as it held above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily timeframe.
In the short term, XAU/USD climbed above the descending trend channel that formed in mid-April, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sitting in a bullish zone around 67.50, supporting buyers in current time.
If gold bulls enter the psychological $2,400 mark, the yellow metal could see a rally to all-time highs near $2,432, en route to $2,500. Gold price is trying to break the 2375 level to reach the round port of 2,300 USD.
Support: 2350 - 2340- 2332 - 2327 - 2316
Resistance: 2378 - 2391 -2400 - 2408- 2417
Breakout: Sell 2346 - Buy 2379
SELL zone 2391 - 2393 stop 2396
BUY zone 2330 - 2328 stop 2324
Gold back to 2400?Gold prices continued their uptrend on Thursday and rose more than 1% as US Treasury yields fell, reducing the greenback's appeal. Labor market data from the United States was weaker, increasing the chances of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve despite facing inflationary pressures.
XAU/USD's daily chart shows it has slowed its recovery around the slightly elevated 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), at around $2,345. Longer moving averages maintain their upward slope well below current levels, while technical indicators remain below midlines with no clear directional strength. Overall, Gold extends its consolidation phase ahead of a suitable directional catalyst.
Looking ahead and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is neutral. The pair met with intraday buyers around the bullish 200 SMA but failed to extend gains beyond the slightly bearish 100 SMA. Finally, technical indicators remained unchanged at positive levels, showing that bulls are more willing to jump in.
The resistance zone at 2375 is currently expected by investors to be able to reduce the increase throughout today. The price range of 2375 and 2352 will be the trading range in today's US session. If the recovery level is nice enough, gold's destination will return to around 2400 soon.
SELL zone 2375-2377 SL 2380
BUY zone 2353-2351 SL 2348
Break Down a Trading Session and Price Action Taking NotesIn the short video I show the price action from a session on the DOW JONES and the key price action that I see important for my daytrading.
This is a process I do each day to improve my trading and it helps to solidify in my mind what I want to see in the setups.
You will have to pause the video to read the notes but please enjoy.
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Review and plan for 16th May 2024Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan in kannada.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
Gold Market Update Exploring TrendsDiscover an enticing Buying opportunity in GOLD as it undergoes a critical retest of a key resistance area. With market analysis, technical indicators, and price action as your allies, evaluate the potential upside move. Stay vigilant and informed to capitalize on this precious metal's market dynamics.
Strategic GBPJPY Selling AnalysisExplore the latest trends in the GBPJPY forex pair with identified sell levels at 195 and 197. Our comprehensive analysis delves into key market drivers, technical indicators, and fundamental factors, providing strategic insights for navigating the dynamic GBPJPY landscape.
Gold Market Update Exploring TrendsDiscover an enticing Buying opportunity in GOLD as it undergoes a critical retest of a key resistance area. With market analysis, technical indicators, and price action as your allies, evaluate the potential upside move. Stay vigilant and informed to capitalize on this precious metal's market dynamics.
Will Bitcoin support Hold ?The 59500 area has been tested multiple times. I believe we may go back higher from here, but what a coincidence - Its FED Day today !! however, until we get back above the angle 3, I would not play longs here. Please note TrapZone is Red with Red Bars below it, so keep an eye on the UMVD. Can you see a LAREGE CHANNEL ???
SWING IDEA - RAMKRISHNA FORGINSConsider a compelling swing trade opportunity in Ramkrishna Forgings Limited , a leading manufacturer of automotive components in India, catering to both domestic and international markets.
Testing Strong Resistance Zone : The price range of 750-770 has been tested multiple times and is currently attempting to breach it, indicating potential bullish momentum.
Bullish Engulfing Patterns : Bullish engulfing candlestick patterns observed on both the weekly and daily timeframes signal strong buying momentum and potential upward movement.
Trading at All-Time High : Ramkrishna Forgings is currently trading at its all-time high, indicating strong bullish sentiment and potential for further gains.
Trading Above 50 and 200 EMA : The stock is trading above both the 50 and 200 Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) on the daily timeframe, confirming its bullish bias and potential for trend continuation.
Volume Spike : A significant spike in trading volumes reflects increased market interest and potential accumulation by investors, adding confirmation to the bullish thesis for Ramkrishna Forgings.
Target - 860 // 945
Stoploss - daily close below 700
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A Winning Trade ExplainedIn the video I explain my approach to the market and how I use 'trade sizing' to manage my risk in the initial part of the US session.
I walk through the price action for the NASDAQ and why I traded short and then flipped long. I explain the concept of sizing with regards to trade management and then how I 'SIZE UP' when I have conviction to end with a profitable session.
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GOLD Bulls targetPrice has bounced off the 50% fib level on the daily chart and has also broken out of the triangle pattern previously created.
Price currently sits at resistance so there are no clear long entries to play here that would be safe to take, but if price drops to previously lows, or creates a new higher high, then we can be waiting for the next leg towards the highs.
GBPJPY Continuation short after messy PAVery messy PA in multiple the Yen pairs. Considering HTF; most of the Yen pairs reached a VA or ATH and impulsively turned around. Assuming the BOJ intervened at least twice, but the market did not yet follow through yet. The overall situation is still undecided, with fundamentals not supporting an immediate strengthening in the Yen.
However Positioning is prime for a selloff in the Yen pairs.
Since PA is still considered 'messy' I am waiting for a clear confirmation in form of a H1 continuation flag before setting an EO.
This setup applies to multiple Yen pairs. Patience is key, once again.
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Glossary:
VA – Value Area
Liq.P – Liquidity Point
BO – Break-Out
EO – Entry Order
H1 – Hourly Time-frame
M15 – 15min Time-frame
LTF – Lower Time-frame
HTF – Higher Time-frame
Magenta horizontal Ray – Area of Interest
Magenta rectangle – Gap / Area of Significance
Green Path – Preferable PA
Orange Path – Acceptable PA
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