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MERRY CHRISTMAS AND A HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL MY SPYLOVERS !!!Two weeks ago, I projected some very common behaviors that candles exhibit after a long rally. If you compare the two types of candles I marked on the left-hand side, notice how candle models "A" and "B" have very different body structures. Candles "A" have a more volumetric medium-sized body, which indicates strength. However, we are not exempt from their natural pullback, which, to complete one trend cycle, broke the structure itself upward. Candles "B" are smaller than Candles "A," allowing us to distinguish the significant weakness in the uptrend. The price starts to lose momentum, and consequently, we can expect it to take a pause before falling. After projecting the two scenarios where SPY was positioned two weeks ago, we were able to predict both future movements correctly: When the price reached historical highs, it paused or consolidated, showing descending candles (see the magenta arrow). Later, a volumetric candle confirmed the drop. Within the two scenarios, I marked two possible levels where the price would fall. The rebound occurred correctly at the second level, a historical resting zone where the price has been since October. This analysis is entirely based on price action and historical zones. It's essential to stay alert to institutional and liquidity zones to ensure the most accurate analysis possible. Now we are in the final week of the year, and historically, markets tend to react bullishly. But the question is: Will it be different this time? In my opinion: I believe the price can reach new historical highs, as it is demonstrating with strong bullish pressure candles. At this moment, I think we are at a good support level located at the previous resistance of our entire bullish channel. I believe the price will re-enter the channel and resume the sequence it has been following within the overall bullish structure. This concludes my analysis of SPY for now. Let's see what the next few days bring as we continue monitoring the market. If you'd like to see this analysis in English, follow me on TradingView under the username: rockermike111. Wishing you an excellent 2025 filled with great news and continued growth in your market studies! May your learning progress year after year! Sending you a big hug and wishing you a Happy 2025! TRADE SAFE!
AMEX:SPYLong
by RocketMike111
Reversal Trading Strategy Using GOLDEN RSI Divergence Indicator Overview Reversal trading strategies capitalize on identifying turning points in the market where a potential reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend, or vice versa, occurs. In this post, I will introduce a strategy based on divergence patterns spotted with a custom RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator. This method enhances traditional RSI analysis by making divergence detection clearer and actionable. By combining it with a strong understanding of price action, traders can gain an edge in timing market reversals effectively. Key Features of This Strategy Divergence Analysis: The core of this strategy is to identify bullish or bearish divergences between the RSI and price action. Custom RSI Indicator: The custom RSI indicator simplifies divergence detection by highlighting critical levels and marking divergence points directly on the chart. Confluence with Price Action: Reversals are validated using trendlines, support/resistance zones, and candlestick patterns. Chart Example: S&P 500 Index In the attached chart: Bullish Divergence: The price made lower lows, while the RSI made higher lows (indicated by green arrows). This divergence signaled weakening bearish momentum and potential reversal. Entry Point: A clear breakout above the trendline validated the reversal. Enter long positions near this breakout level. Stop Loss: Place the stop loss just below the recent swing low. Target Profit: Aim for the next major resistance zone or use a fixed risk-reward ratio (e.g., 1:2 or 1:3). How to Spot Divergence Bullish Divergence: Price forms lower lows. RSI forms higher lows. This indicates waning bearish pressure and a potential upward reversal. Bearish Divergence: Price forms higher highs. RSI forms lower highs. This suggests weakening bullish pressure and a possible downward reversal. Why This Strategy Works Strength of RSI Divergence RSI divergence reflects the loss of momentum in the current trend. By detecting it early, traders can position themselves ahead of major reversals. Combining Confluence Factors The success rate of this strategy increases when RSI divergence aligns with other technical factors like: Horizontal support or resistance levels. Trendline breaks. Volume spikes. Practical Tips for Using This Strategy Use Multiple Timeframes: Confirm divergence signals on higher timeframes for stronger setups. Avoid Overtrading: Only act on clear and validated divergence setups to minimize false signals. Risk Management: Never risk more than 1-2% of your trading capital on a single trade. Conclusion This custom RSI-based divergence strategy is a powerful tool to identify high-probability reversal setups. When combined with proper risk management and confluence analysis, it can significantly improve trading outcomes. Start experimenting with this strategy on your demo account and refine your approach before deploying it in live markets. If you have questions or want to discuss this further, feel free to comment below!
SP:SPXEducation
by thejamiul
20
[INTRADAY] #BANKNIFTY PE & CE Levels(26/12/2024)Today will be slightly gap up opening expected in banknifty. Expected opening near 51450 level. After opening it will face resistance at this level and expected downside from this level. Strong upside rally only expected if banknifty starts trading and sustain above 51550 level. Also, Major downside expected below 50950 level. Currently banknifty trading in between the zone of 51050-51450 level. Any major directional rally only expected after breakout this zone.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by TradZoo
Gold price analysis December 23Fundamental Analysis Gold prices held steady near $2,625 in early Asian trading on Monday. The Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance could weigh on the yellow metal. However, a weaker greenback following weaker inflation data could limit the yellow metal’s downside. The Fed cut interest rates at its December meeting as expected but signaled it would slow the pace of further reductions in borrowing costs. The Fed’s dot plot, a chart that projects the future path of interest rates, shows a half-percentage-point cut in rates by 2025, compared to a full percentage-point cut expected in September. This, in turn, further boosts the US Dollar (USD) and weakens USD-denominated gold as higher real interest rates increase the opportunity cost of bullion. Technical Analysis Gold marked a second consecutive bullish rebound today. Although there were some adjustments at the beginning of the Asian session, as long as the correction does not exceed 2605, it is still a buying opportunity worth paying attention to. 2651-2665 are considered the two technical resistance zones of gold price today before it wants to uptrend again and find the peak around 2692. If 2605 is broken, 2657 will be the target of all subsequent downtrends.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
BITCOIN LOSING ITS MOMENTUM? SHORT TERM BEARISH SETUP.I have been noticing the price exhaustion of Bitcoin on the Daily price graph. If you notice the momentum to the highs are very limited compared to its recent momentum. And notice the big divergence on the RSI. On its previous correction it took only two big down candles for correction as compared to to its previous pullbacks. I have ha feeling prices needs to breath lower before it can make a big push higher so I'm betting a correction to its previous structure lows. Let me know what u think Indicators on chart are Daily 200sma bollinger band RSI with 100sma bollinger band
CAPITALCOM:BTCUSDShort
by Junmadayag
GBPUSD BEARISH IDEAGBPUSD price attempting to break the weekly bearish flag possibly attempting to test previous weekly structure lows Daily chart shows a possible divergence creating a thesis that a possible pullback is imminent that could test previous support turned resistance for possible bearish continuation set up note: The indicator you are seeing in the chart are bollinger bands with 200 sma that would show if price is over extended long term. this indicator is set to daily so that if you scroll down to lower time frame what you will see is the same indicator but set to daily. The RSI is the regular rsi with 100sma bollinger band for long term trend shifts in momentum. 4h or 1h chart would be the execution chart if I will see pull backs to fib levels using RSI midline and sma as confluence
Short
by Junmadayag
Gold price analysis December 19⭐️Fundamental Analysis Gold prices fell sharply due to the impact of the Fed's less dovish outlook. Fed Chairman Powell emphasized cautious policy in the context of ongoing high inflation risks. The Fed forecasts inflation target to reach 2% in the next 1-2 years, indicating slow progress. The latest dot chart shows few interest rate cuts until 2026, stabilizing the Fed funds rate at 3.4%. ⭐️Technical Analysis Gold prices fell to the 2685 area and were accepted by buyers to push prices up around 2610 in the Asian session. If the European session fails to break 2613, Gold will continue to fall in the European session and the destination is relatively far away at 2585-2558. In case the resistance zone at 2613 is broken, the direction is towards 2633, which is the first corrective wave SELL zone and the second corrective wave SELL zone around 2663
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader