Touched Important Level & Patterns Remain BullishTraders,
Just a quick little update here. I pointed out this bullish triangle in a previous post. I had suspected we had one more small drop to 28,500-28,800 before any sort of breakout OR breakdown. So far, neither of the latter has occurred yet, but we have hit my support marked price level. That's great. Also positive is that we remain above this support and inside a bullish patterns both on the price and RSI chart. We will soon exit in one direction or another, however, probability suggest a move to the upside.
Also positive is that our SPY chart remains in the breakout area. Until this changes, I don't grow concerned but remain bullishly biased.
A few negatives to consider:
* We have not retested that descending trendline from Dec. '21. Though, we don't have to, it is a movement that usually occurs. The question then becomes, "When?" One possibility is a break to the upside of my triangle, a hit of that 31,600 level, and then a drop. If this occurs, an "M" pattern will have formed which would likely lead us down for that retest.
* Another item to always keep in the back of your head is that we do have a gap on the Bitcoin CME Futures chart from the 10th of March 2023 at around 20k. Sooner or later more than 90% of all gaps are filled. If we stay above my neckline at 25,200, I don't expect that GAP to be filled this year. If we drop below it however, all bets are off.
Watch these items closely or better yet, stay tuned into my channel and I'll try to update you as best as possible.
Best,
Stew
Pricepatterns
Forex Update: AUDCHF continuation watch.Today's focus AUDCHF
Pattern – LH - Continuation
Possible targets – .5920 .5875
Support – .5951
Resistance – .5875
Indicator support – MA sloping down, CCI 0 Cross
Hi and welcome to today’s update. Today we are watching the AUDCHF and wondering if we will see a new continuation lower that will maintain the current downtrend. Yesterday buyers made a solid move after the RBA rate hike but the move was cut down through the US session. We have run over the triggers we are looking for to confirm our continuation idea and watch to watch out for what could invalidate this idea.
Another factor could be tomorrow morning’s FOMC. If this ends up giving the AUD a boost it could invalidate the the signs we are seeing currently. The FOMC will be released at 4:00 am AEST Thursday morning.
Thanks for stopping by. Good trading, and have a great day.
SPY Cycle Patterns are incredible.Have you ever seen anything that can attempt to predict price trends 30 to 60+ days in advance? Other than Japanese Candlesticks, and quite possibly Elliot Wave, I've never seen anything have the predictive qualities of my short-term & long-term Cycle Patterns.
This is a Daily SPY chart highlighting the cycle patterns that aligned with certain days. As I'm watching these cycle patterns unfold, I'm seeing more and more details emerge.
For example, the current week showed the following:
9-4: Temp Bottom
9-5: Top/Resistance
9-6: Breakdown
9-7: Carryover
9-8: Inside-Breakaway
9-9: Breakaway
9-10: Rally
9-11: N/A
9-12: N/A
A temporary bottom, followed by a top/breakdown in trend on 9-5/9-6. The "carryover" pattern can act like a reversion price trend, or a continuation price trend. Today it resulted in a reversion higher.
Tomorrow the cycle patterns are predicting an Inside-Breakaway followed by a Rally on Friday (9-9 & 9-10).
I expect the US markets will rally higher on some news related to some moderate global crisis. This may send Gold/Silver higher and may drag Bitcoin higher as well. What I expect is a flood of moderate buying to close out this week - catching traders by surprise.
AUDJPY confirming pattern break?Hi, TradingView community and our followers. We’re taking a look at the AUDJPY 4H today as price has broken out of a triangle pattern and, for now, is showing signs of confirmation.
Measured move rules suggest we could see a run-up of around 140 pips. This could take price back up to 92.16. before that, though, we do see potential resistance from 91.60. We will be watching to see how buyers go if they reach resistance and if they can break it, will we see the move extend close to the measured move target?
Key data to come today, US CPI and Core CPI data. Which is due for release at 8:30 am EST.
How to Find Legitimate Head and Shoulder PatternsHey Guys!
I just wanted to post a quick tutorial on how to find legitimate Head and Shoulder patterns.
In this lesson, I explain the 5 rules that a Head and Shoulders pattern must abide for it to be legitimate.
Here's the rules:
#1 Both necklines must be parallel.
#2 The main neckline cannot be broken out of surpassed before the right shoulder's price level is reached.
#3 The Head and Shoulders must be relatively flat.
#4 The top neckline can only be adjusted to a wick between the main pivot and the last correlating major pivot.
#5 The prior trend must be in the opposing direction. (which is up in the case of a "short" Head and Shoulders Pattern )
That's it! I hope this helps!
Have a great day!
Ken
Mandatory Price PatternsHey Guys!
When it comes to price patterns, there are many. I mean, look up "price patterns for trading" on google and you'll find countless variations. Just like in the movie "A Beautiful Mind", where Russel Crowe's character locates patterns in Russian Codes; a price action trader, can find endless variations of patterns on their charts.
However, these variations actually deter the trader from their sole purpose of trading. Which is to make money. Period.
With so many patterns multiplied by the different time frames that a trader utilizes in their trading, it is bound that there will always be multiple price patterns on the chart at any given time. What does that do? It confuses the heck out of the trader.
That said, price patterns are a foundational element of price action trading, and is necessary to trade at higher levels. But it is not the amount of patterns that a price action trader must master. If the price action trader can master the Double Top/Bottom, and the Head and Shoulders patterns at the initial level. Out of my experience, these 2 patterns alone are more than enough to extract consistent profits from the markets.
Simply put, it's about quality over quantity.
That's it! Hope this provided some insight into price patterns!
Have a great day!
Ken
How to Find Legitimate Double Tops & Double BottomsHey Guys!
I just wanted to post a quick tutorial on how to find legitimate double tops and bottoms.
In this lesson, I explain the 4 rules that a double top/bottom must abide for it to be legitimate.
So for example: For a legitimate double bottom:
#1 The 2nd bottom's price must reach the 1st bottom's wick low price level.
#2 The 2nd bottom's price cannot close past the 1st bottom's wick low price level.
#3 There must at least be a 10 candle range between the the bottoms. (including the 2 bottom's candles)
#4 The prior trend must be in the opposing direction. (which is down in the case of a double bottom)
That's it! I hope this helps!
Have a great day!
Ken
Nasdaq. not advice.nasdaq is making a couple tradeable patterns, but all of the action is happening on the lower time frames for me so it's kind of hard to make sense of it on the higher time frames. This is more of a lesson than trading advice. Just some things to looks for when trying to make sense of price movement.
AUDUSD & NZDUSD Analysis
This is a price behavior approach, for education purposes.
The Price will not travel in a straight line, and it takes a great deal of time & effort for an ongoing primary trend to change.
The situation in the Aussie and Kiwi is similar and the approach must be the same, however, we have a hierarchy in our selection whether to buy or sell.
When buying we prefer to long the Aussie and Sell the Nzd when bearish.
Still trade what you see not what you think.
Bitcoin Supports Held Perfectly!Hi guys. Just a quick post to show how perfectly our supports held. We still haven't reached our target zone (see previous posts); however, proper risk management should have dictated that you at least sold a bit of your holdings for profit. I still believe our target zone is in site. And then? One final HUGE hurdle as we look to escape our long-standing triangle from 2017. I don't know what will happen then, but we may have one last down swing (even into the 6.5k range) before the bulls finally win this 2+ years correction once and for all.!
Happy trading!