AAPL: what happens next?Sharing an updated chart and will start with the conclusion first - i'm long AAPL and will add to the position before the split - in an attempt to capitalize on what i consider to be a rare investment opportunity that happens maybe once every few years.
- AAPL has delivered awesome earnings for the June quarter, in spite of the COVID situation and the store closings, expected low device sales, ..etc -- not only that, but the numbers exceeded expectations, sometimes by a big % (like the case with iPad sales) across all business divisions
- the stock delivered around 76% growth in 4 months (April, May, June, July). an average of 19% per month -- some can claim that it was a case of a strong stock recovering from a big dip - however, this growth can be expected to benefit from the excitement around the upcoming split.
- to put this in more perspective,
-- the excitement: on friday - the day after the earnings, in the last 90 mins before market close, the stock jumped from 412 to 425 - there was 10m stocks traded in the last 30mins only, that's $4B worth of trades -
- the split effect: the previous 7-to-1 split in 2014 generated a growth of ~30% within 6 month surrounding the split. the reason i say surrounding, is because in reality, the stock starts to move up as soon as the split announcement is made - check the chart here
- AAPL has more exciting stuff coming with the expansion in the services business, wearables and all the big 5G motion-- there's more to contribute to the business growth for couple more years at the least.
- IMHO, the best way to trade AAPL is to buy and hold -- buy now and hold till after the split -- and not miss that opportunity -- and i recommend to avoid *any shorts* of such a growth stock.
good luck and stay safe! Please do your research before taking any recommendations for your trades.
