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AUD/USD – High Probability Long Setup1️⃣ Trade Execution – Why I Took the Long Position Today's AUD/USD trade was a perfect setup combining Fibonacci retracements, institutional order flow, and seasonality trends from Prime Market Terminal. The confluences aligned well for a high-probability long entry. 💡 Entry Details: ✅ Entry: 0.6380 (Key demand zone + Fibonacci golden zone) ✅ Stop Loss: 0.6365 (Below market structure) ✅ Take Profit: 0.6429 - 0.6450 (Previous supply zone & liquidity target) ✅ Risk-Reward Ratio: 3:1 🎯 Result: Currently in profit, monitoring for further upside! ✅ 2️⃣ Why This Trade Worked – A Breakdown of the Confluences 📊 Fibonacci Retracement – Textbook Pullback & Bounce Price retraced into the 61.8%-78.6% Fibonacci zone (0.6380 - 0.6365) and bounced perfectly. The bullish move followed an impulse leg, suggesting smart money accumulation in this zone. 📈 Smart Money & Order Flow – Trading with Institutions 🔹 Order flow from Prime Market Terminal shows major liquidity pools accumulating long positions. 🔹 DMX Data: 43% long vs. 57% short, indicating potential for a reversal as shorts get trapped. 🔹 COT Data: Institutional traders increasing their net long exposure on AUD. 🕵️‍♂️ Seasonality & Historical Trends Supported the Long 📊 Seasonal Prime data indicates AUD/USD historically trends higher in late February & March. 📅 Next 3-5 day forecast shows bullish probability, reinforcing the long bias. 📉 Technical Confirmation – Structure & Momentum ✅ SuperTrend flipped bullish on the 4H chart ✅ Price is trading above key moving averages (EMA 6, 24, 72, 288) ✅ Broke above short-term resistance, confirming upward momentum 3️⃣ Key Takeaways from This Trade 🔹 Trading with smart money flow and against retail sentiment increases trade probability. 🔹 Seasonality trends aligned perfectly, adding confidence in the setup. 🔹 Fibonacci, EMAs, and Prime Market Terminal data provided a precise entry. 🔹 Patience and risk management ensured a well-executed trade. 📌 Final Thoughts – What’s Next for AUD/USD? 🚀 With this bullish breakout, I’m looking for further longs on dips, targeting the 0.6450 - 0.6480 zone. 👀 What’s your outlook on AUD/USD? Are you long or short? Let’s discuss in the comments! 🔗 Follow me for more institutional trade setups & contrarian trading ideas!
Long
by LDForex_
EUR/JPY – High-Probability Short Setup 1️⃣ Market Overview – Bearish Bias Confirmation EUR/JPY remains in a strong downtrend, forming lower highs and lower lows. Currently, the price is retracing into a critical Fibonacci resistance zone, making this a prime opportunity to short the pair in line with institutional sentiment and seasonality trends. 2️⃣ Fibonacci Levels – Identifying Key Resistance The Fibonacci retracement is drawn from the most recent bearish impulse. Resistance Zone: 0.5 (156.888) to 0.786 (157.107) – a high-probability rejection area. If price fails to break above this zone, a continuation to the downside is expected. Prime Seasonality Insights – Historical Data Supports the Short Bias 📊 Seasonality trends over 15 years indicate that EUR/JPY historically declines in late February and early March. 🔻 February seasonality performance: -0.7% average return 🔻 Next 3-5 day forecast: Bearish probabilities (-0.06% to -0.21%) 🔻 Seasonality prediction candles show a short-term retracement, followed by downside continuation. 💡 This aligns with the technical setup, reinforcing a short bias. 4️⃣ Retail Sentiment – Smart Money Edge 🚨 79% of retail traders are LONG on EUR/JPY – a contrarian signal for a short trade. 🔻 Institutions (Smart Money) are aggressively shorting EUR/JPY, as seen in COT data. 🔻 Commitment of Traders (COT) Report shows increased institutional short positioning. 🔻 Retail traders trapped in longs will likely get stopped out, fueling further downside. 5️⃣ Technical Confirmation – Trendline & Indicators ✅ Price is below all major EMAs (6, 24, 72, 288) on the 4-hour chart. ✅ Supertrend remains bearish on the 4-hour timeframe. ✅ A downward sloping trendline aligns with the Fibonacci resistance zone. 💡 I will wait for confirmation (rejection wick, bearish engulfing candle) before entering a short position. 6️⃣ Conclusion – Trade Plan for EUR/JPY 🔹 Bias: Bearish due to downtrend, Fibonacci resistance, seasonality, and institutional short positioning. 🔹 Trade Setup: Sell EUR/JPY at 156.88 - 157.10 (Upon rejection) Stop Loss: Above 157.26 Take Profit Targets: 156.30, 156.04, 156.00 🔹 Key Confirmation: Retail traders are trapped in longs, seasonality supports further downside, and institutions are short. 🚀 This is a prime example of how combining Seasonality, Smart Money Positioning, and Technicals can create a powerful trade setup. 📌 What’s your outlook on EUR/JPY? Let’s discuss in the comments!
Short
by LDForex_