LUNA: Low timeframe trading a dead coin on the short timeframe.Bought in at ca. 0.0000888 BUSD and sold at 0.0004 BUSD, and just re-entered at 0.0002888 BUSD.
w-pattern forming (which is more apparent viewing on the 5mins timeframe -- which TV disallowed publication at that fast timeframe, hence I'm showing this on the 15mins chart ).
If LUNA can break above the white line at ca. 0.0004 BUSD and hold, measured move target will be at 0.00058 BUSD, where the previous high was at.
Also note the extreme increment in relative volume after the crash to zero, which was what prompted me to consider trading LUNA.
Prismsignals
Potential Waves/BTC Long trade.Been buying back into Waves again within the golden pocket, after having DCAed out of my position during the recent significant pump.
Price have now just broken out above the sym triangle as defined by the cyan dashed lines. Presently setting stop loss below the 65% line, just below the golden pocket.
WIll revert to a trailing stop loss strategy if the price successfully bounces off above the sym triangle, and above the ca. 0.000687 BTC range.
ELASTOS:BITCOIN long trade.Been re-accumulating within the golden pocket, after earlier selling into BTC btwn the 23rd and 26th of Jan 2022, based on my CYBERENSEMBLE (technical) and PRISM Signals (momentum) buy/sell indicators. ELA just broken out of golden pocket above 61.8% Fib level.
Setting stops between and below 65% Fib level and the 200 daily SMA (thick orange line); increasingly invalidates the bullish thesis if ELA drops to those levels. The thin orange line is the 200 VWMA. Potential ~70% profit. Will switch to a trailing stop loss once price breaks above the 50 daily SMA level (green line). Red line is the 21 daily EMA.
My CYBERENSEMBLE (technical) indicator also had now flashed a buy. Still waiting for the PRISM Signals (momentum) indicator to confirm the upward move.
ELASTOS has really strong fundamentals to me: deserving of becoming a top ETH layer2 scaling solution especially with the release of the excellent "Essentials" wallet and "Feed" and a growing ecosystem of enthusiastic community of developers, NFT contributors, and investors; and potentially a highly viable scaling solution for BTC as well. A good project to invest into and hold for the longer term as well.
PrismUSDT Long Prism has been in the oversold area for weeks, this is a good fundamental project,
a possible quick long trade is showing up,
Always make sure to enter a trade after seeing a confirmation candle and even better to enter after it has done the pullback
AUDSGD Broken up above the 21 EMA on the 3hrly Chart.Previous analysis before the traditional market crash:
Quick HOT:BNB analysisHere's a quick HOT:BNB analysis that I've done for a subscriber to one of my script.
Publishing this just to put it out there.
CYBER ENSEMBLE seem to have good confluence on the 4hrly.
Red/Green = PRISM Signals (Free to use for now -- momentum/acceleration based signals)
Blue/Orange = Cyber Ensemble (Technical Signals)
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Its stuck below 21 EMA on the daily since 7Jan20.
Note: Historial candles too short to use PRISM Oscillators (as well as the PRISM Signals) on the daily chart.
BTC pierced above the 7238 USD VPVR level! Will it close above?Bullish Scenario playing out in my Apr 06 post in my previous on-going analysis updates .
Note: as explained in a prior published idea, the current ascending channel is drawn as such base on my personal trading preference to ignore the initial equilibration “ringing” after a massive sudden move. I believe it tends to be wise to wait awhile before a clear new market structure form after the previous market structure has been broken.
Previous stances ( posted here ):
QUOTE:
(Apr 05) Right now I am actually neutral in the short term, so long as the red 21 EMA holds. I will only be bearish if the green 50 SMA fails to hold.
The PRISM oscillators indicates a bearish bias atm, however the Snap Oscillator and the AJ-ribbon are only gently sloped downwards, which could also mean a relatively sideways movement, with a very slight drop (perhaps to retest the 50 SMA) before rebounding.
Right now, I am actually slightly and cautiously bullish into the longer-term base on the current market trend. But similarly, for me to become truly bullish, the price will need to break up above the yellow ascending channel, and to clear the 7238 USD VPVR resistance as well and retest it as support.
(Apr 06) The fact that the Sell signal have been triggered on the Cyber Ensemble suggests that it will be difficult for the price to successfully break up higher this time round as well. And if that is the case, the price will likely come back down; and may very likely break below the red 21 EMA, as well as the green 50 SMA with the failed attempt by the bulls -- with the immediate bearish price target of 6100 USD at the bottom of the ascending channel drawn, and hopefully closing and supported above the orange 200 SMA. Setting stop-loss at the 6612 USD VPVR level just below the green 50 SMA to lock in profits accumulated so far just in case.
(Apr 06) If the price falls and closes below even the orange 200 SMA, then BTC will likely follow through with a break down below the yellow ascending channel, marking the start of a more significant and perhaps violent downtrend.
However, as per the above latest chart posted, the AJ-Ribbon looks to be in a strong upward swing, which will likely pull momentum back up into the positive.
This is in conjunction with the main P-Oscillator looking to cross the 21 VWMA really soon as well! I'm cautious slightly biased to the bullish case atm now, but will wait and observe which condition is fulfilled before making my next move.
(Apr 06) BTC had now successfully closed above the yellow ascending channel.
Switching to 4hrly chart where the Cyber Ensemble and PRISM Signals indicators have now have better confluence with the price action, indicating a reduction in volatility.
The bullish/bearish scenarios as described above are as shown.
Moving up to the higher 6hrly timeframe: The AEONDRIFT bands (stdev bands -- similar to the well known Bollinger Bands) have drastically narrowed, indicating reduced volatility; and a possible significant move incoming.
6hrly chart (zoomed out):
Latest traditional market (SPX) normalised Bitcoin (XBT) Charton the 6 hrly timeframe with CYBER ENSEMBLE {Premium} buy/sell indicator.
Continued from:
CYBER ENSEMBLE performance on the 15mins timeframe.But the CYBER ENSEMBLE indicator still works the best on the 3hrly for BTC (or 2/4 hrs depending on market phases -- just do a comparative back-test for maximum confluence of recent price actions/trends ); where the more erratic price movements during low liquidity phases tends to be averaged/smoothened out. See:
However, it is sometimes useful to go down to lower (e.g. 15 mins timeframes) during fast price movement -- like with the recent BTC pump.
All in if BTC finds support above 200 SMA on 3 hrly @ ~6580 USDIf BTC can pierce above the orange 200 SMA on the 3 hrly @ 6580 USD, then I am all in with the rest of the USDT from BTC that I had previously cost-average sold off at ca. 9636 USD when the price dipped below the orange 200 SMA.
Stop loss earlier triggered and sold off almost 30% of my small BTC trading account holdings. :(
Bought back in immediately when BTC pierced above 6143 again.
"PRISM Signals" triggered a buy on the 3 hrly (indicating bullish momentum/acceleration trends).
CYBER ENSEMBLE also registered a buy on the 3hrly earlier, strengthening the case for a bullish short-term bias.
A more zoomed in and "cleaner" view:
"Cleaner" zoomed out view, showing only the 200 SMA on the 3 hrly:
Continued from:
BTC retesting the 61.8% Fib of the recent massive dump.BTC retesting the 61.8% Fib retrace level of the recent massive dump -- as drawn from top to bottom of the dip since it produces higher degree of confluence wrt to the VPVR levels.
If the current 3hrly candle, retesting the 61.8% Fib, closes above, I will be going all in (Long) with the rest of my BTC trading account; with stop-loss set and constantly updated at below the 21 EMA.
I'm now short-term bullish.
However for me to become mid-to-long-term bullish, the BTC needs to pierce above the 50% Fib @ 7161 USD and hold.
CYBER ENSEMBLE had earlier signaled a sell on the 1hrly marking the start of the retest.
Will also adjust stop-loss to protect any gains made if the sell signal is triggered on the 3hrly, which is the timeframe that the CYBER ENSEMBLE Buy/Sell indicator is optimized at (see past/historical confluence).
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Far-longer-term outlook:
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With the "Banana Republic" style "quantitative easing" and "infinite liquidity" (i.e. money printing) not just in the US, but Europe, UK, Japan, and China as well, below is my comparison between Fiat (centralized manipulated currencies) vs. Bitcoin (the decentralized internet of value).
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Fiat, manipulated by centralized authority. Value is based on trust to said centralized authority.
Bitcoin, presently highly speculative and volatile asset due to low market liquidity (akin to a penny stock with similarly low market capitalization). Value is determined purely by market demand (mostly speculative trading at the moment). However Bitcoin's SUPPLY cannot be manipulated and cannot be confiscated by the government, nor can it be shut down due to its decentralized and adaptive nature. Unlike the heavy solid Gold, you can "carry" Bitcoin to anywhere in the world with you (undetected/unconfiscatable) just by remembering a 12-24 words phrase to re-generate the private key.
Base layer (layer 1) of BTC is slow and can only have a very limited transaction rate (still faster and way cheaper than international transfers via Swift).
However, this could be increased in the future with more miners as well as with consensus among majority of the miners to increase block-size to fit the growing needs. Further, 2nd layer solutions, such as the lightning network is already being built to allow for almost instant and "zero fees" transfers, while layer 1 will simply act as the highly secure settlement layer into the future.
Wallets can get hacked due to poor security practice. Centralised crypto exchanges can get hacked (they similar to centralized banks). But it is virtually impossible to hack the actual Bitcoin network.
Still not very user-friendly to use atm, but like with the internet, this will naturally improve as adoption and integration to existing devices grows.
Significant friction of entry (i.e. converting Fiat into Bitcoin), but have significant improved compared to just 5 years ago.
Certain more authoritarian governments have tried to shut down exchanges and trading, however, P2P exchange persists under the radar regardless. Instant international transfer of large amount with comparatively negligible fees compared via outdated and sluggish banking systems relying on Swift.
A presently highly risky short-term investment, with not much real-world use as of yet other than for speculative trading within developed countries. While is utilized as a necessary hedge (discretely outside the view of authoritarian governments) in countries experiencing hyperinflation -- where Bitcoins value volatility is nothing compared to the certain significant drop in the value of their centralized authority manipulated Fiat currencies.
The printing of money is effectively a redistribution of wealth -- sucking "value" from everyone (including the savings of the collective middle income groups) typically to the ultra-wealthy -- as corporate welfare and socialism for the rich.
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Entry/Exit/Target Strategy, and Risk-to-Reward
Previous analysis, waiting for this very entry condition to be met:
PRISM Oscillators
RSI and STOCHs
Relative Candle Volatility/Directionality Indexes {RCVI/RCDI}
Cyber Ensemble Sell Signal Triggered on 3hrly, Acceleration downSee also my analysis of the S&P 500 which BTC is heavily correlated to atm:
BTC now at 200 weekly SMA support.I am cautiously accumulating back in (via cost averaging) again now with stop loss set and constantly updated now.
Re-Entering ETH again after previously selling all at 220 USD.Slowly cost averaging back in (50%) with stoploss set at 115 USD, and continually observing the 3hrly chart as well.
Will enter with the rest once there are further confirmation from Cyber Ensemble + PRISM Oscillators.
Previous analysis.
A look at the S&P 500 Chart (weekly and daily charts)Will the orange 200 weekly SMA hold?
If the index dips below this historical support, it will mark the start of the next recession as it did in 2008.
Daily Chart:
BTCUSD 7Mar20: Bullish/Bearish ScenariosBullish: Coming down to 8732 USD and bouncing off, establishing a higher local low?
Bearish: Dropping back down to the 50% Fib level @ 8507 USD, and probably will then retest 8732 USD before failing and falling deeper down.
Present course of action?: Wait & watch for next move.
Price likely to drop lower first for both cases. Set stop-loss for bearish case (@ ca. 8675 USD) with the aid of the RCVI Stop-Limit Selector Script.
Fresh PRISM Signals' Buy signal triggered (suggesting an underlying positive acceleration of the momentum increase).
However, need to wait for Cyber Ensemble for technical confirmation -- which actually recently signaled a sell instead.
Clear bullish signs of accumulation present.
However, the actual PRISM acceleration/jerk oscillators look weak.
Significant low reversal earlier triggered on FUSIONGAPS V5
Continued from:
PRISM Signals signaling BUY on the 1D Chart.Suggesting a possible start of a momentum swing to the upside at the higher-timeframe.
Need to wait for candle close for confirmation.
Will be more bullish if/when the buy signal is triggered on CYBER ENSEMBLE as well.
PRISM Signals
CYBER ENSEMBLE {PREMIUM}
See also shorter timeframe analysis:
Furthermore, price also closed above the orange 200 DMA line!
BTC broke above 8732 USD. Retest 61.8% Fib-ext @ 8981 USD next?Bullish in the shorter term. Need to break above 61.8% Fib-ext level @ 8981 USD and finds support over to be bullish in the mid term.
PRISM Signals signaling "Buy". However will need to wait for Cyber Ensemble to signal a "Buy" first before making a move.
PRISM Acceleration/Jerk ribbon looking bullish, pulling Momentum up further, and looking like it has more upside to go.
Continuation from:
BTC: "Buy" signal on my Cyber Ensemble script triggered. BUT..BTC have finally now tested strong support zone between 8.5-8.6k USD.
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Also appear to have found support above the 61.8% Fib retrace.
A bounce looks possible on the short term, but won't be too bullish.
PRISM Momentum is rising again, while PRISM's primary oscillator indicates oversold condition.
Price needs to recover back above blue zone again and be supported by it (and hold), for me to feel truly bullish again in the mid-term again (i.e. within the next week or two); for now, I'm playing it cautiously @ ca. 9633 USD
Or at least, it needs to pierce back above the 78.6% Fib-retrace level, and through the Ichimoku Cloud ({Cybernetwork} settings) and be supported by it, putting it back within the descending channel again @ ca. 9450 USD.
This will prevent the 50/200 DMA death cross from occurring.
There's a possibility for price to fall even lower after a more probable weak recovery (i.e. anything below 9450 USD), to drop further down to 8k USD (or an even more bearish scenario, down to 38.2% Fib-retrace level at 7745 USD) so I'm preparing for that scenario as well.
On the 1D chart, it simply looks like a retest on the 61.8% Fib-retrace level and testing the green Ichicloud for the first time.
Provided that the 1D Ichicloud does not flip negative, and price doesn't go significant below 8475 USD, and appear to be rejected by the 8.5k USD level, I will remain cautiously bullish into the longer term (i.e. next mth or two).
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My short term prediction for the price to first bounce off above 9 and 9.5k USD, or at least move relatively sideways didn't work out. Price went straight to my mid-to-long term target around 8.5-8.6k USD -- showing that market is exhausted for now, and I won't be expecting a parabolic run up again anytime soon, as well as highlighting the need to set sensible stop-limits to protect your funds and limit risk no matter how bullish/bearish one may "feel" about the market. Looks like the market needs time to consolidate and stabilize first.
See previous analysis:
and
Possible downward channel ETH is now in. 228 USD target?Looks like price will want to bounce up again in the shorter term, and even eventually go down to 215-228 USD @ the 61.8% Fib-ext level.
Speculation: ETH possibly making its way up after hitting 61.8% level to overcome resistance -- to signal a pump much higher after completing a bull-flag formation.
Acceleration is trending upwards into the positive now, which is expected to pull Momentum higher again.
As usual, highly dependent on BTC chart too.
Buy Signal triggered on PRISM Signals on the 1hr timeframe.
Will wait for it to be triggered on the 3hrly time frame (where there's better confluence) for confirmation.
See prior analysis:
BTC now tested and supported by bottom of channel.Clearer signs of a positive change in momentum.
Price moved further down from ca. 9500 USD support, divergent from Cyber Ensemble buy signal.
Will wait for it to be confirmed for 2-3 more candles and as previously mentioned: " Will wait for (the blue buy signal on) PRISM Signal to trigger as well perhaps, then relook at the chart and PRISM oscillators, before if a breakout higher is imminent or will price more likely break down lower infact. "
Also as before mentioned, there's a chance for it to go relatively sideways down to 8600-8500 USD first before recovering -- so need to wait for confirmation before making any move.
