BTCUSD / H1 : possible triangle... so patience required !Updaing the previous scenario... The bearish breakout failed to install a bear trend (prices stopped right at the Sinewave target and retraced back above the BREAK level..
BUT bulls didn't manage to take advantage of it to trap bears... When you see that... you know that odds are to a range... And everything seems to point a triangle.
It's still very early to confirm that speculation. But speculating is my job ! So there is my new framework on the bitcoin !
To find the possible triangle resistance I search for the APEX point.
To do that I search to the most reliable mid-point (a point that clearly acted as support/resistance). And then I speculate on the possible resistance trendline by ploting it from the start point to the APEX.
That give me a hedge on the possible timing to short again.
I shows a target cluster around 12400$. According to that I decided to close the previous short at 10800 & 11200 just because I thing I'll have much better prices on the top of that triangle.
This edge also suggests that we may be patient before breaking down that triangle to trigger a potential krash of the BTC.. so don't be to hard on shorts... For now I think bearish stops must remain above 13200$.
Hope this idea will inspire some of you !
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
You can check my indicators via my TradingView's Profile : @PRO_Indicators
Kindly,
Phil
Pro-indicators
BTCUSD / H1 : possible triangle... so patience required !Updaing the previous scenario... The bearish breakout failed to install a bear trend (prices stopped right at the Sinewave target and retraced back above the BREAK level..
BUT bulls didn't manage to take advantage of it to trap bears... When you see that... you know that odds are to a range... And everything seems to point a triangle.
It's still very early to confirm that speculation. But speculating is my job ! So there is my new framework on the bitcoin !
To find the possible triangle resistance I search for the APEX point.
To do that I search to the most reliable mid-point (a point that clearly acted as support/resistance). And then I speculate on the possible resistance trendline by ploting it from the start point to the APEX.
That give me a hedge on the possible timing to short again.
I shows a target cluster around 12400$. According to that I decided to close the previous short at 10800 & 11200 just because I thing I'll have much better prices on the top of that triangle.
This edge also suggests that we may be patient before breaking down that triangle to trigger a potential krash of the BTC.. so don't be to hard on shorts... For now I think bearish stops must remain above 13200$.
Hope this idea will inspire some of you !
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
You can check my indicators via my TradingView's Profile : @PRO_Indicators
Kindly,
Phil
BTCUSD / H1 : Sinewave bearish breakout... short again...After the perfect shorts at 17K, 13K, 11.2K (and the 14,3K that I missed) given by PRO Sinewave & PRO Momentum and the associated trading strategy.
Today Sinewave is showing the confirmation of the latest short with that recent bearish BREAK pattern detected, confirmed by Momentum with the breakdown of the support trail-line (the dotted lines that slowly follow momentum).
This strategy says that when this occurs, I have to lower my stops.. so I adjusted from 13,2K to 11,8K. At this point this stop can only gives gains, even if the scenario goes to invalidation.
The lowered stop offered some more available cash to put one more short in the bitcoin. So I'm now short on 17k, 13k 11.2 and now 10.8k.
All the shorts entries have been shared here on TradingView BEFORE they occured. So if you thought I was like those who tells what happened afterwards... not my case !
You can find all the shared ideas on my profile of course.
Please remind that being right the first three times does not tell that the 4th will be for sure...
This is trading and there's no certainty.. only risk management.
Hope this idea will inspire some of you !
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
You can check my indicators via my TradingView's Profile : @PRO_Indicators
Kindly,
Phil
BTCUSD / H1 : Sinewave bearish breakout... short again...After the perfect shorts at 17K, 13K, 11.2K (and the 14,3K that I missed) given by PRO Sinewave & PRO Momentum and the associated trading strategy.
Today Sinewave is showing the confirmation of the latest short with that recent bearish BREAK pattern detected, confirmed by Momentum with the breakdown of the support trail-line (the dotted lines that slowly follow momentum).
This strategy says that when this occurs, I have to lower my stops.. so I adjusted from 13,2K to 11,8K. At this point this stop can only gives gains, even if the scenario goes to invalidation.
The lowered stop offered some more available cash to put one more short in the bitcoin. So I'm now short on 17k, 13k 11.2 and now 10.8k.
All the shorts entries have been shared here on TradingView BEFORE they occured. So if you thought I was like those who tells what happened afterwards... not my case !
You can find all the shared ideas on my profile of course.
Please remind that being right the first three times does not tell that the 4th will be for sure...
This is trading and there's no certainty.. only risk management.
Hope this idea will inspire some of you !
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
You can check my indicators via my TradingView's Profile : @PRO_Indicators
Kindly,
Phil
NVDA / D1-H1 : Agressiv short under resistance for reversalSimply applying the PRO Strategy here...
Step 1 : highlighted a technical cluster from fibonacci extensions using Elliott Wave projection theory.
Step 2 : waiting for a signal or pre-signal on the local timeframe (D1)
Step 3 : searching confirmation from H1 timeframe with a double signal from PRO Sinewave &
PRO Momentum .
Step 4 : trade entry !
Hope this idea will inspire some of you !
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
You can check my indicators via my TradingView's Profile : @PRO_Indicators
Kindly,
Phil
BTCUSD / H1 : One more short at 11.2K.. adding to 13K & 17KAfter the perfect shorts on both 17K & 13K (the indicators also gave a perfect signal on 14.3K but I simply missed it !!).
Anyway today another signal came in.. allowing me to reduce my stop losses again and afford a new reinforcement on this very nice Sinewave + Momentum trading signal right in a price area I was waiting for.
We're one step forward to the possible krash..
I'm not saying this will happen for sure, just saying it's getting closer to it.
Hope this idea will inspire some of you !
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
You can check my indicators via my TradingView's Profile : @PRO_Indicators
Kindly,
Phil
BTCUSD / H1 : After the perfect 17K... I'm back with 13K$ shortThese are all the latest signals given by PRO Sinewave
& PRO Momentum on the #bitcoin !
As you can see.. not very bullish.. But there is still one bullish confirmed signal (a Sinewave TP signal, which is the least powerful Sinewave signal..)
My opinion at the moment is that the price will likely stay in between those two signals (the latest bear signal and the previous buy signal).
The next trend will most likely result from the breakout of one of these two bounderies.
Can't tell wich side will be chosen, but statistically the odds are to the previous trend.. and the latest trend signal showed by Sinewave is... bearish..
So I stay short and I reinforced at 13K€ to add to the previous 17K$ short entry shared in advance on this idea :
Hope this idea will inspire some of you !
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
You can check my indicators via my TradingView's Profile : @PRO_Indicators
Kindly,
Phil
ETHUSD / H1 : Bull VS Bear accumulation towards decision clusterThe most probable scenario on ETH could be to trigger both a bullish signal (the last valid signal confirmed by both PRO Sinewave &
PRO Momentum indicators) then a bearish signal.
If this happens, we will probable head towards a bull VS bear accumulation. This accumulation generally push prices to a "decision cluster" where the market will decide the next "big move".
I can be a bearish reversal or a new bullish extension. It's impossible to tell at this stage.
The only thing I know is that bulls have to reduce exposure on the possible bear signal, and bear could try an entry on this bear zone if a signal occurs.
Hope this idea will inspire some of you !
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
You can check my indicators via my TradingView's Profile : @PRO_Indicators
Kindly,
Phil
BTCUSD / D1 : Feels like "I told you so" !Despite the funny tittle the truth is here, I warned you weeks ago about the risk of heavy bearish signals slowly taking over the bull trend that built that speculative bubble trend.
PRO Sinewave & PRO Momentum were reversing short for a while...
I've been facing quite some resistance when I warned ppl in the crypto chat right here in tradingview ! But the fact is that now it feels more and more probable that I was actually right !
Its a bit too soon to tell but anyway the signals are very weak !
BUT i still recommand to be cautious not to be too bearish either. Why ? Because if you have a closer look at Sinewave, it's now showing an early bull signal..
What does that mean ?
It means that now we need to keep prices downward cause if we see a bullish candle reversal, then sinewave will reverse to bullish !
That doesn't mean the market will reverse, cause Sinewave cannot be traded alone... it will require a Momentum confirmation.. BUT nonetheless this Sinewave reversal (if it happens) will have to be considered.
Hope this idea will inspire some of you !
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
You can check my indicators via my TradingView's Profile : @PRO_Indicators
Kindly,
Phil
SPX / H4 : The first 2018's swing battle may have begun !I think we may have reached the point where volume will start to pile up in a narrow area, crushing up momentum as volatility will slowly pick up before a nice burst occurs.
This burst will of course have both positive and negative outcome possibilities.. Positive outcome will very likely sign the entry in a very agressive bubble trading mode before krashing up the speculative phase.
Negative outcome will probably cause a little "sell off" session with investors massively reducing leverage after being too confidently exposed to equities.
Trend remains bullish so there's no point searching this top for a bear marker reversal.. !
Hope this idea will inspire some of you !
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
You can check my indicators via my TradingView's Profile : @PRO_Indicators
Kindly,
Phil
NIKKEI / W1 - H1 : Very nice resistant cluster to trade.We're now reaching the possible end of the weekly bullish trend and could top up near the heavy cluster of fibo targets.
The "short term" (H1) setup tends to show signs of weakness as well and could validate a massive taking profit reactions from investors (moreover if the yen tends to strenghen which I also expect)
I ploted the expected wave projection on the H1 chart and the target zone in which I'll be searching for short entries to trade the weekly reversal.
Hope this idea will inspire some of you !
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
You can check my indicators via my TradingView's Profile : @PRO_Indicators
Kindly,
Phil
BTCUSD / H1 : Scenario Update : no triangle, but pbly a flatFollwing on from the previous idea which just got invalidated with the latest Sinewave Breakout, I had to come up with a new technical background.
The fact that we see the current wave as an impulse (12345 instead of ABC) shows that we are probably making a flat correction which structure is 3-3-5 and corresponds to our present case !
That being said, it still remains a corrective structure and the most probable outcome still remains a second bearish impulse after completion of that flat.
Fibos are pulling a target area to look for possible short entries that I showed you on the chart. That's my new plan so far... so still being patient on bitcoin..
Hope this idea will inspire some of you !
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
You can check my indicators via my TradingView's Profile : @PRO_Indicators
Kindly,
Phil
BTCUSD / H1 : Triangle consolidation on the way ! More PatienceFollowing on from the previous analysis, we've now reached the invalidation of the previous scenario that was speculating on a new bearish impulse.
It appears that the market is not yet ready to drop, and it decided to flush out the sellers yesterday.
Anyway the structure remains heavily bearish, we're probably just consolidating longer than expected !
I'll stay away from the bitcoin for a few days, waiting for the triangle waves to plot. Then I'll keep you posted about the next zone of interest to see If I trigger new short entries ;)
Hope this idea will inspire some of you !
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
You can check my indicators via my TradingView's Profile : @PRO_Indicators
Kindly,
Phil
BTCUSD / H1 : Time to go dirty ! Sinewave confirms low risk sellNo need to take long to explain what I see here... It's pure and simply a low risk short setup confirmed by both PRO Sinewave &
PRO Momentum .
The last Sinewave signal was a BEAR, confirmed by overbought signal on Momentum (so that's a valid bear trading signal).
This signal got rapidly confirmed by a Sinewave BREAK pattern... at this point, things are pretty nasty... if bulls don't take things over rapidly this will get serious !
Anyway, I think the risk/reward ratio to enter this short setup worth trying to trade this..
I missed the BEAR signal and the BREAK (away to see family...) but I'm entering anyway. Trying to catch an eventual 4 point retracement based on this probable Elliott count..
Invalidation is simple, if prices break above the Wave 2... the count is invalid and I prefer taking the stop to eventually look forward to other shorts later.. Or not at all if it gets really bullish again..
Targets are easy to plot, I expect an extended wave 5 to search for a major C point. Extensions points to two narrow clusters... near 6000$ and 3000$.
I'll take profits on the first one, eventually consider buying bitcoins if I get a signal... otherwise wait for 3000$. Anyway I wont remain short leveraged under 6000.
Hope this idea will inspire some of you !
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
You can check my indicators via my TradingView's Profile : @PRO_Indicators
Kindly,
Phil
SPX / D1 : Out of gas, waiting for an EXIT confirmation...The setup here is very clear to me.. We're running out of fuel and the PRO SINEWAVE will soon plot the EXIT cycle that will terminate this bullish breakout pattern...
Once terminated the market will switch back to range / retracement mode. After such a rally (+30% with no breathing of more than 3%) we can easily expect the prices to retrace at least to 23,6%.
Eventually 38.2% if things deteriorate a bit more (Euro/China posing sanctions agains the tax plan for exemple).
BUT anyway the trend REMAINS BULLISH and after the corrective structure will be plotted on charts, it will be time to buy again for a final weekly impulse before reaching the end of the monthly cycle (and basically the long term economic cycle).
Long term bullish, but now we could switch to weekly neutral/bear retracement mode. So there's no more room for buying here ! It's time to short, but with a plan and with caution as we're still on the very early stage.
It's only time to be prepared. Start acting for those who are agressive, placing alerts under supports for low risk profiles..
Hope this idea will inspire some of you ! I'ld appreciate any like/follow if you feel like it deserve it ;)
You can check my indicators via my TradingView's Profile : @PRO_Indicators
SPX / D1 : Out of gas, waiting for an EXIT confirmation...The setup here is very clear to me.. We're running out of fuel and the PRO SINEWAVE will soon plot the EXIT cycle that will terminate this bullish breakout pattern...
Once terminated the market will switch back to range / retracement mode. After such a rally (+30% with no breathing of more than 3%) we can easily expect the prices to retrace at least to 23,6%.
Eventually 38.2% if things deteriorate a bit more (Euro/China posing sanctions agains the tax plan for exemple).
BUT anyway the trend REMAINS BULLISH and after the corrective structure will be plotted on charts, it will be time to buy again for a final weekly impulse before reaching the end of the monthly cycle (and basically the long term economic cycle).
Long term bullish, but now we could switch to weekly neutral/bear retracement mode. So there's no more room for buying here ! It's time to short, but with a plan and with caution as we're still on the very early stage.
It's only time to be prepared. Start acting for those who are agressive, placing alerts under supports for low risk profiles..
Hope this idea will inspire some of you ! I'ld appreciate any like/follow if you feel like it deserve it ;)
You can check my indicators via my TradingView's Profile : @PRO_Indicators
BTCUSD / H1 : Possible timing for a "Dead Cat Bounce"I post that chart because I know some of you are going crazy about the bitcoin... is it a bubble or not..
Well let's make this straight... if you think this kind of price action isn't typically a bubble.. then you need to review your classics !
Of course this is a bubble ! The only question is when is going to burst.. That's a tricky question.. and trying to short a bubble require quite some experience.
Every trade need a technical background to support the scenario (otherwise it's just random betting.. and that's gamble.. not trading).
Using my mighty couple of indicators, PRO Sinewave & PRO Momentum , here's what I have :
We can clearly highlight 5 sell signal (confirmed by both Sinewave & Momentum). These will obviously act as resistances during the technical bounce that we may see next.
AND I SAID "MAY SEE" because so far there's not a single sign of bullish support on Sinewave and neither on Momentum.
Finally we can add the "BEAR TREND" confirmation that showed up when things started to get a little nastier !
Which means that until we manage to break a resistance, we're still bearish in terms of probabilities.
Anyway I still think that a pullback is highly probable, but I'll use it to find a short entry...
From a technical prospective, it's possible to short any of these resistances if a Sinewave + Momentum signal shows up under them.
It remains bearish until we remain below the resistance that materialized the bearish trend ignition... and that's at 18400... Which is also 76,4% retracement of the whole bear move..
CONCLUSION :
Bulls have now hell of job to do in order to restore the trend that has now switched to neutral (before going bearish if we fail to reverse the H1 current trend)
If they fail I think the next bearish trend cycle will be a lot more agressive and will potentially drive a market krash. But that's too early to speculate at this stage.
All I can tell is that this thing is no longer bullish right now and after such a rally, searching shorts is certainly the best option now. But still remaining cautious and not shorting nowhere without signals..
Hope this idea will inspire some of you !
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
You can check my indicators via my TradingView's Profile : @PRO_Indicators
trading market cycles with PRO SinewaveFor those who already know or simply heard about Sinewave oscillator created by J.Ehlers out of Hilbert filter formulas... The PRO Sinewave indicator will stun you !
For those who don't, well you might be missing a very interesting market approach and I suggest you to google the two names above to eventually start tipping a toe into the beautiful cyclical world of trading !
Usages can be very wide but I personnaly focussed on creating an algorithm to filter, and signal out of the sinewave oscillator.
It ended up with this PRO Sinewave indicator !
But there's an important thing you might need to know (if not already) is that a proper trading signal can never come out of a single indicator... (holy grail indicator doesn't exist and therefore every indicator will have its own strengths and also weaknesses). To avoid this I also developped the PRO Momentum wich is also a very complex signaling indicator (with patterns coming out of momentum based indications). Momentum and cyclical approaches are very complementary and when you combine the signals from the two indicators you'll obtain a very low risk trading signal. That doesn't mean they'll be 100% winners... Only fools could believe such thing. Everything about the Momentum & Sinewave signaling process is details in this PDF manual (right clic to download)
Anyway I hope I caught your interest on this great topic that is cyclical analysis of the market !
SPX / H1 : Still waiting for signals to enter...Following on from yesterday's daily alert signaling that I was beginning to search for short entries, I must admit that so far nothing is showing signs of sellers going in...
Feels like the market is dead and wants to wait for 2018 before pricing anything !
Anyway... without signals, no trade. And here neither sinewave or momentum is giving any signs of sellers. The last TP cycle pushed us back to a supports... and a Bull cycles came out.. and managed to push slightly higher... so there's no validation so far..
The more recent cycle is BULL and Momentum signals with an oversold (little red dot) signal. Wich is a confirmation signal.. Basically that means the market is now back to a bullish posture on H1..
So I'm WAITING to get cleaner signals to trigger my shorts.
Hope this idea will inspire some of you ! I'ld appreciate any like/follow if you feel like it deserve it ;)
You can check my indicators via my TradingView's Profile : @PRO_Indicators
EURUSD / D1 : Two options with 50-50 oddsWhen this is 50-50 I usually have a close look at Sinewave to see if it can shift the balance.
In our case, the last cycle is a bearish cycle.. It will very likely be broken in both scenarios, but the question is "what will happen when we'll have reached the target" ?
Option 1 will extende over it and start a bull trend out this initial bear cycle (it happens but this is rare)
Option 2 will reject the target and force prices to remain in the range wich will inevitably lead to an extended correction likely to be a "double three" that would directly point prices toward a potential 50% retracement of the very bullish wave that brought us here !
Hope this idea will inspire some of you ! I'ld appreciate any like/follow if you feel like it deserve it ;)
You can check my indicators via my TradingView's Profile : @PRO_Indicators
STOXX / H4 : End of bullish waves, retracement should comme soonSinewave and Momentum are both having hard time to trigger signals here because of ECB press conference stimulus that has driven sharp and faster price movements. Anyway 3641 is a key level that I had on my charts for weeks.
We're testing it and as it corresponds to the final wave of a potential expanding triangle structure, that would be a shame not trade it and share this idea with you !
I'm now short for a correction (SO THIS IS COUNTER TREND and I'm of course doing this with 0,5 leverage and a large stoploss set at 2% risk > 1% capital loss in case of invalidation. This means a stop loss set a 3715 which is much more that required and should leave me out of troubles !).
Target 1 is set to 38% retracement.
Target 2 at 50%.
I don't see this corrections going further that 50% as we had a very bullish structure on the impulse.
Anyway no matter how bullish we were, this was still a first bullish wave... and at this stage shorting can only be considered to pay for future long positions stops ;)
YES I'LL BUY EURO EQUITIES AFTER THAT RETRACEMENT ! (just to be clear..)
Hope this idea will inspire some of you ! I'ld appreciate any like/follow if you feel like it deserve it ;)
You can check my indicators via my TradingView's Profile : @PRO_Indicators
EURJPY / H1 : bear reversal about to happenI just taken that short entry with a very nice sinewave + momentum signal right below yesterday's gap that we reversed and closed below. Today we retrace back to test that gap again. Apparently prices are now rejecting it.
It's time for me to reinforce my short positions with a new entry here, very limited risk as I set my invalidation level slightly above yesterday's highest price.
Target is retracing back to support in two waves, I'll take my profits at the end of wave 3 which should lead us to a 161% extension of A. Stop will be set at BreakEven when reaching the confirmation area.
Hope this idea will inspire some of you ! I'ld appreciate any like/follow if you feel like it deserve it ;)
You can check my indicators via my TradingView's Profile : @PRO_Indicators