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Ace Trading Academy - AUD/USD Pre-week Analysis Full BreakdownIn this video, we thoroughly review how last week ended and how the upcoming week will potentially set up in AUD/USD based on previous price movement. We plan to see an initial retest at the beginning of the week and a continuation of the current 2-week uptrend after the retest. We labeled trading zones, Support/Resistance points, and trend set-ups. Take a listen, like and follow if you take value from this video. More value will be coming soon!!
by AceTradingAcademy
AUDUSD Preweek Potential Weekly Bias/Set-upsLast week on AUDUSD we saw a bounce back from a huge bearish drop to begin the week. We saw a huge drop Monday and the trading pair bounced back bullish for the week. We had a final push bullish on Thursday to another higher level around .66000 and from there to the end of the week a small pullback to .65750 as seen on the 1 Hour. We are seeing a short uptrend beginning and will continue to follow the market structure with higher highs and lower lows. The previous low is where the BOS line is placed on the analysis. A break below the BOS line will alert us to a potential trend reversal. Anything above that pint still follows the uptrend. Ace Trading Academy will keep you updated on future moves. This analysis is only to generate trade ideas. Do proper research upon trading and before executing your trades. Subscribe to my website for more updates and for valuable content coming out! The URL is found in my profile.
Long
by AceTradingAcademy
Bitcoin REALISM I am definitely not going to win any popularity competitions with my comments and thoughts. But that's not the point when it comes to making money. The main issue for me still in Crypto Land is the lack of realism. The image on the front cover was from a google search of "realism" I guess the confused face made my day. This is exactly how you need to be looking when you read these points below. I have explained the logic of every major move over the last couple of years and this guys - is no different. So let's start by exploring the reality of market cap for one. When you buy a stock you have a number of stocks in circulation times that by the price and you can get a market cap. Of course, unlike most companies on the exchange Bitcoin CANNOT just issue new stock. We have to remember some Bitcoin are gone and lost forever so this number will likely end up around 20million and not the full 21m. The current Market cap is roughly 19,806,000 x $42,897. Let's call it a little over 820 Billion. At the ATH of $69,000 we saw $1.302 Trillion. Lets look at what is needed and an angle of attack if Bitcoin was to hit $500k by Jan 25, 26, 27, 28 or 2029. This is only one aspect of the story. Prior to the ETF launch people were saying silly things like "Trillions coming in, $100k imminent" Blackrock's largest ETF is roughly $354 Billion. This is the SP500 fund founded back in 2001. So 23 years old roughly now. Here's the actual chart. What does this mean? Well, let's say Blackrock decided to close their biggest ETF and throw it all into Bitcoin. That level would still not take us back to the current ATH. Bullish, Bullish, Bullish - we are still $25,000+ under the current ATH. So what about other ETF's? Obviously the market is bigger than just Blackrock. Let's look at this aspect too. Look at the end of 2021 as the ETF market collectively was at it's high. We are talking about $10Trillion in 8,552 ETF's. I've posted several times about the current COT landscape. Clearly social media Bitcoin is buzzing and everyone is about to become rich, it's different this time and so on. Well, COT says otherwise. Back at the top when everyone was calling for $135,000 I said the reason for the drop would be liquidity. So why is this different? I said there were two likely scenario's on the table as we moved down. The first was we were in an early stage accumulation, we needed to go up to 32k and back down to the low 20's. This would allow us to travel much higher and sustain such a large move. The second option was bearish. Well, I guess the second move played out. The momentum is still clearly not with us - we are still FWB:25K + under the current ATH - not what one would or should expect after 12 Bitcoin specific ETF's obtaining approval & launching. Look at the momentum People seem to fall into the echo chamber and all logic leaves the building. I have been at this game a long, long time. Seen it all before and I am sure I will see it again. This does not mean I am Bearish or anti Bitcoin - not for one second. I am one of the lucky ones in at the right time, sold a lot on the way up and happy with the current holdings. All I am trying to emphasis here - is don't get sucked into the void which is not supported by ANY sound logic. I recently watched a couple of video's with Warren Buffet, another with Jim Rickards. They both explained something very interesting in a very clear way. Although Anti Bitcoin - what they said made a lot of sense. The same lesson kinda applies to things like gold. When you buy an asset, the asset can produce for you. So assume you buy a house - you get rental income each month and with the price of the property going up over time you make gains there. Buy a business same thing - Buffet explained this using a farm as the example. Sell grains, cows or whatever you farm. Over time you still hold the asset. This isn't true for the likes of diamonds, gold or Bitcoin. Hence it fits into the greater fool theory. If I sell you my last bitcoin I picked up for less than $200. You buy it all today at $42,850. You have to find someone else willing to pay you more than the $42,850 in the future. For me, this is the main reason I don't personally care up or down or sideways here. But many in the echo chamber do. The average price across the breakeven addresses are around $37k - this is Breakeven not profit. So imagine majority of the retail crowd with an average entry after DCA'in at $37k. These are all things to keep in mind when your playing shorter term moves. ETF's are structured in such a way long term growth can be expected, volatility get's somewhat reduced. You noticed what's happened on the weekends since the launch? So whilst I expect it to go up in the long run. We need a healthy pullback as to be expected. This gives more time for real accumulation to happen - but this will also put some stress on that average (BE) level of $37k. Just keep this in mind and one more thing if you want to comment on "oh your wrong - up only" give some logic to support it or I won't bother responding. This move will take time. For me, nothing has changed since 2022. We are not ready for new highs - YET... Anyway enjoyed or not I thought it was worth another educational post. Stay safe! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Editors' picks
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
74
Professional view of Bitcoin's HistoryI have posted countless posts about Bitcoin, shared educational content many steps of the way. To understand the logic and trade your next big opportunity, you need to have a good feel as to where it has been. More importantly, why it has been there. So, let's start off with the why. I am one of the lucky ones, I first got introduced to Bitcoin in 2011 - just happened to be in the fintech space and a long time FX/Stock trader. When I first saw Bitcoin I knew it was interesting, but had no concept of the scale or the possibilities. Fast foreword a few years I started unloading throughout it's first real Bull run. Why? Well, as a trader I wasn't looking for lottery wins, looking more for good returns on the investment. (I wish I knew, what next) Don't get me wrong, it was an awesome run and ended up one happy chappy, but at this stage in Bitcoin's life it was too early to "trade" - this was more an investment vehicle. As the price rallied, my other hat was hearing other VC's and Angels talk about Bitcoin but with a kind of scepticism, yet a fear of missing out. The issue is, Venture Capitalists are more about wealth preservation than wealth creation. You could write a book on this topic! What I was seeing, is the VC's would look at other Blockchain based investments and make their decisions based on a simple ' is Bitcoin up or down ' After the drop late 17 into early 18, there seemed to be a different vibe in the family office, LP, more institutional investors. This vibe was one that kinda said "if it survived the pummeling, maybe it's safer than we expected". Now, if you think VC's are all about wealth preservation, the LP's (Limited Partners) in essence the money behind the VC's, as well as other types of investments. These guys are another level, it's all about longevity, long term strategies, these are not trading moves up and down this is a long term play with a tiny amount of their pie. (which is often still in the Billions). It wasn't until we got to this point, that as a trader more than a Tech investor - Bitcoin become interesting. I shared a post at the time explaining why it was interesting, this was called "Re-accumulation" You can click this post and go through to see it in detail. It was due to this playing out to the penny, the next stage become obvious. You see, many retail traders assume one thing when it comes to investing like this. That is Big players come in and price goes up. So many jump in, this is the liquidity for these bigger players to cash out. Like I said, as a professional I am not looking to invest $1,000 to make $10 Million. We are looking at 10x, 20x bank it. Go again... Knowing what was on the cards based on the level of re-accumulation just below and of course a factor of 10x from the lower region accumulation. You guessed it - DISTRIBUTION I shared a post titled "They Blew up the rocket" These levels are pre determined, on the @TradingView show with Stefan, I discussed Composite Man and the fact the market is an Algorithm, seeking liquidity. www.tradingview.com We then fall down to this area of liquidity which as you can see above, can easily be mapped out in advance. Now in this zone, you could see a real ugly move up - this give off the hint that the market was testing the water, checking to see what levels are interesting to various participants. As we rallied away from this zone, it quickly became apparent that the new top level had been programmed. Zoom in to read the text here. So, why was it only going to poke above the old all time high? Liquidity... Then Where? well, down of course. Here you will see we started changing the character and the next obvious move was on the table. Again, pre-programmed in. I shared in advance the logic here as to why it will grind up and fall through. These things are not difficult to understand, yet retail traders mostly have the memory of a gold fish. Levels are not set in stone, you don't get a break and it's done. the change of character is trying to tell a story. It's giving the clues. I've shared every single major move here with you on TradingView. Now what? You have a much, much larger accumulation move in the works. NOT SO FAST! One slight caveat. We are early, it's not done yet. Your local influencers, fake guru's and the social media universe all want one thing! BTC to go up. Blackrock's ETF - you think they will come in to make retail traders rich? Go back and read the start of this post again. Retail is the liquidity for us professionals. This phase is a very, very big one. On a 15 minute Timeframe every $100 will look massive. You really need to learn the logic behind such moves.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
6
What you need to know about being Bullish!As a long time trader and professional investor, it's been awesome seeing the evolution of Bitcoin. It's a place for influencers to say stupid things like Bitcoin to 100k or 250k without any real merit or logic behind such a price point. Often the analysis consists of a handful of useless lines drawn from nowhere to somewhere of interest on the chart. To understand what Bitcoin and the larger crypto market is doing, doesn't take a lot. Especially as it becomes more and more institutional. I've talked about this for a long time here on @TradingView and showed each step of the way. These moves are not as random as they appear. There's a great book by Richard Ney, actually he has a couple talking about market makers and the effect on the markets. However, one little snippet he talks about how the market or a stock/instrument such as Bitcoin can be seen as a warehouse, think of the scale and number of shelves. Now think of the length of time to fully stack that warehouse. This isn't a quick factor... Now break that idea down further & apply it to BTC. If the market makers are the owners of the warehouse, who do they sell to? Well retail of course. The issue is retail simply do not buy in bulk. Once retail get the urge to buy, the warehouse stock gets depleted 'over time'. In addition the market makers need to stock back up. So for them, they need to buy cheap and sell higher. Trading 101 Over the last couple of years, I have shared a chart showing COT data, this is a US based sample size of in essence what the market makers are doing. The data is slow and clumpy, it's lagging much like all the other indicators - maybe even more so. However, that does not matter as all you are looking for is a general bias. You only need to look at Larry Williams who won the Robbins World Cup Championship of Futures Trading, COT data is a key part of his strategy. I've written several posts here covering the topic in more depth, but here's the current snapshot. Asset Managers: This image clearly shows a long, long term bias. Next you have the Leveraged Funds: This image is almost the inverse, we have a negative delta shown. Now in the past I have had people say to me "ah look, institutions getting REKT. Price going up and their short" What you need to understand is how this works. Let me ask you this "Who is selling to you in the rally" Well the guys who bought it cheaper. So here's the lesson: The factors for Bitcoin currently are pretty simple; you have a long term Bullish bias as seen by the Asset Managers . You have a shorter term Bearish bias of the Leveraged Funds Therefore we can look at some other factors. Let's start with a zoomed out view of the market - let's go to a Monthly timeframe. What do you see? Well, I see an overbought stochastic, I also see price moved up as volume fell down (more visible lower TF's). To translate this, the accumulation for the bigger picture is not quite over. Influencers think we are resting on 30k to rally to 250k next week. Unfortunately for their Demo accounts, the market doesn't think like that. Nor do the market makers! Next you can also dig a little deeper into things like Dark Pools again I have covered this in another educational post. As this is an educational post, let's put all of the pieces together. 1> COT data shows Leveraged Funds still have positions to sell 2> Asset Managers have a Bullish Bias 3> Monthly stochastic overbought 4> Volume doesn't match the move up 5> Dark pools... How much is being soaked up under the radar? In the TradingView show back in May, I covered Wyckoff and Elliott and a little about composite man (market makers). www.tradingview.com When using such tools and techniques, the price becomes obvious. Why up or down and at what key levels. Moves like this are pre programmed into the liquidity algorithm. Things you can spot from miles away. So let's finish on putting it all together - The conclusion would be, we are early on in an accumulation phase, we need to stockpile the warehouse to have momentum to newer highs. IF we go directly here we are capped - think of it like fuel in the tank. I have talked about this on several of my streams here. Coupled with the current view of the overall economy. This doesn't have to be difficult. I hope this helps some of you out. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
10
Ace Trading Academy - AUDJPY 2HR Trading Analysis AUDJPY short opportunity. This week AUDJPY has made a turn to the downside breaking structure and making major bearish moves. Since AJ has been taking out all of the lows we could see it keep pushing toward the downside to sweep the rest of the lows. Target 1: 93.125 Target 2: 92.500 Will continue to stay updated with this trade so follow here. Like, Comment, and Follow Ace Trading Academy P.S. All videos related to the post will be attached below. Have been following this trade all week and will continue to keep posting knowledgeable analyses.
Short
by AceTradingAcademy
2
Ace Trading Academy - 30 Min Precision AnalysisAUDJPY recently has been respecting a support line drawn up in the chart as a red arrow called 30 min support. As seen on the chart AUDJPY has broken below the support line and has also given us the retest also. The next step for execution would be looking for confirmation of a sell signal such as a bearish engulfing or a break below the 93.550 point label as BOS(Break of Structure). Another confirmation pattern we're seeing is a shoulder, head, shoulder forming. On the chart look at the teal SHS pattern that has been drawn up also. That marks 3 confirmations for a sale. Now it's just time to execute the trade and make smart decisions. Safe entry is at the BOS line drawn in the chart. Ace Trading Academy Like, Follow, and Comment Will be updated trade!
Short
by AceTradingAcademy
Ace Trading Academy - AUDJPY Analysis For Upcoming WeekIn this week's video, we went through each time frame of AUDJPY and reviewed last week's chart markups to compare to what we are seeing now. We analyzed Weekly all the way through 4Hr marking all the possible trading zones. Video Summary: Weekly: Saw the weekly support line which we turned into daily support for more accuracy. It's the red line holding up the chart from the bottom. Daily: Marked up the daily high, midpoint, and daily low. We also saw the Daily Support Zone Box where we saw a lot of liquidity happening in between the Midpoint and Lowpoint. Daily High(Resistance): 96.450 Daily Midpoint: 93.600 Daily Low(Support): 90.900 4HR: We saw the 4HR imbalance retest area around 94.350 if it were to retest up. Then we also saw a good Major Point for a great resistance area around 95.000. 2HR: In the 2HR we saw a resistance zone and if it breaks through we are looking for it to push for the 4HR restest areas. Ace Trading Academy Comment, Like, and Follow Ask for any more pain analysis!
by AceTradingAcademy
The News Just Serves To ConfuseI have been a trader for a very long time, so listen as I spit some facts. News is worse than a distraction, it ACTIVELY inhibits you from making good decisions. You have TradingView at your fingertips and it contains all the information you need, in a package so advanced it's frightening. STICK TO PRICE ACTION! I will say this again at the end. I am 100% certain that I only started to be successful after I stopped DIRECTIONAL trading based on news. Of course, I know the broad mass of what's going on in the markets and which news events may have an effect. I haven't stopped listening to and reading the news, but I HAVE started to see it all differently. You can see from the chart that all the recent "Shock News" has no real impact unless you are a day trader. rate decision, statements, unemployment, blah blah.... I am not saying that news is not important, I'm saying that you need to translate it and to be aware of why it is written. This probably sounds like a weird thing to say, but hear me out. Do a memory check with me. When was the last time that the news was all positive about bitcoin? Answer: At the top and on the way down, when the big boys were selling it to naïve retail (like you, probably). Now we are at the bottom, all the news is negative on BTC. I wonder why? (HINT: They want you to panic out so they can buy.) There are three possible reasons for this. 1. The writers are dumb. They are part of the retail crowd themselves and are therefore subject to the same impulses, fears and hopes. They get carried away when things are pumping, and drop into despair when the markets plunge. 2. The whole industry is driven by the big firms, who obviously want to make as much money as they can. Retail traders are, on average, so bad at trading that brokers don't even put their trades into the market, preferring to risk taking the other side themselves. 75% of retail traders lose money. 90% of retail traders will lose 90% of their first trading account in the first 90 days. If I were a broker I would take the other side of those odds, thanks. All I have to do now is make people trade as much as possible. I get commission, and I probably get their stake as well. How to make people trade as much as possible? PUMP OUT NEWS THAT TRIGGERS TRADING. 3. A combination of 1 and 2. The financial industry, from megabanks through to news services, gurus and brokers, is set up to excite people about trading as much as possible. There is constant pressure to provide reasons why oil rose 5% or SP500 dropped 8% etc etc, and even on slow weeks the sheer amount of stories that are published is mind-blowing. The writers are unlikely to be traders themselves, and they just pump out stories based on what happened yesterday and what MIGHT happen today. It is all designed as a massive call to action that is constant, and traders just like you open (and close) positions based on "market analyst" pieces written by economists and professional analysts employed by the brokers. Are you beginning to see how it all fits together? The industry LOVES a day trader most of all, because they lose their stake the fastest, so day trading is promoted as exciting. After all, it IS exciting. Trading gives you a buzz. It's addictive, possibly more so than gambling. It is gambling after all, only slightly different, and if you trade like a gambler, you lose in the end. So, how do I look at news? 1. If trading short-timeframe, I am aware of figures that are due this week, and avoid holding a position coming up to an announcement, and for a while afterwards. 2. If trading medium- to long-term, I remember that the non-farm payrolls may move the market a few percent sometimes, but when you zoom out you can barely see the effect. As a result most of my trading is swing trading. 3. I regard it as a reverse indicator if anything. It never ceases to amaze me when I am thinking about taking a long in, say, Gold, and then an email hits my inbox containing a bearish Gold story. I don't think I am becoming QAnon but I do think these stories can easily be planted by the big players. What journalist doesn't want to write a story after they interview some "master of the universe" trader from GS or JPM or wherever. Or maybe the boss says "write a Gold story today", so they call up their contact who trades it for a bank. Same effect. The banks are in buy mode, and they need retail to sell it to them. If this sounds like I think the whole thing is a colossal rigged casino, then I am getting my point across. News is just a part of the effort to separate you from your cash, but it's doing a great job. So, what to do? 1. Trade on Price Action only. 2. Be aware of news in case it affects a trade you may place or one that you have on, 3. Understand that nearly all news is designed to make you panic in or out of a trade, and regard it VERY cynically. It can be hard to remain calm in the face of a negative headline, but that's what a good pro trader will do. Currently I am long BTC, despite huge negative headlines. Once again, repeat after me: You have TradingView at your fingertips and it contains all the information you need, in a package so advanced it's frightening. STICK TO PRICE ACTION!
Editors' picks
UEducation
by Paul_Varcoe
122
Pro vs AmateurIn trading especially in retail trading we have a massive focus on entries and very little focus on the context behind the trade, we focus alot on things such as indicators, or the perfect candle set up, but we have very little look into the context, so the fundamentals or catalysts behind the move in the first place, we tend to overlook this and focus purely on probability which can take its toll on your account balance. Whereas in a professional environment they do things very differently with a major focus on the context behind the trades, and why price is going to move a certain a way, and the entry itself is actually a lot smaller part of how and why they trade, it is more the icing on the cake. So the takeaway is to realise that in a professional environment the focus is less on the indicators and moving averages ect, and more on the reasoning, so to align ourselves closer to professional trading we need to make sure there is always context behind our decision making, in the long term this is how to become consistently profitable. An interesting way to look at this, is to view the forex market like any other market in the world! it is merely a buying and selling exchange, so would you believe that anywhere else in the world for example the housing market, would a high end property developer be waiting for RSI indicator to be below 30 before buying houses? or would they wait for context like rising interest rates or declining interest rates? Would they be waiting to see if demand or supply increased before making these high end decisions? so why as a trader should our trading be any different? we need to find value and opportunity!
Education
by ZenFlo