Profile
High-Probability SWI20 Longs with 57.78% Achieving TPI am adopting a probabilistic approach to my trading strategy based on historical and statistical data.
This method allows me to identify patterns and trends that have proven effective in the past, enabling me to make informed decisions about entering long positions.
By applying mathematical rules derived from historical performance, I can assess the likelihood of price movements and manage risk effectively.
This systematic approach helps to minimize emotional decision-making and enhances the potential for successful trades.
Key Fundamentals Supporting a Bullish Bias:
- Swiss Economic Resilience: Despite global economic challenges, Swiss equities are showing signs of recovery, with the Swiss SMI index rising 2% this year, indicating a potential bullish trend ahead.
- Central Bank Policies: The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has indicated a favorable inflation outlook, which could lead to supportive monetary policies that benefit the stock market.
- Currency Dynamics: The recent correction in the Swiss franc may ease pressure on exporters, potentially leading to improved earnings for companies within the index.
- Investment Inflows: Swiss-domiciled funds have recorded their highest net inflows since 2022, reflecting growing investor confidence in the Swiss market.
These factors collectively support a bullish outlook for the Switzerland 20 Index, aligning with my trading strategy.
2W:
HOURLY ENTRY:
GME - Is Gamestop ready for another run ?GME this past week showed a nice reversal as seen on the 30 minute chart. Price hit a swing
low on May 2nd and then rose the rest of the week. Is it riding above the linear regression line
set to draw context and direction. On the anchored VWAP bands GME has crossed over the
first standard deviation VWAP line as well as the mean VWAP. Buying volume has replaced
selling volume in the past 3-4 sessions. GME crossed above the POC line of the intermediate
term volume profile suggesting buyers are taking control of the market
Please comment. What do you think? Is GME getting ready for another launch?
Intel ( Bullish!)I'm Bullish on Intel.
Bollinger bands have tightened and volatility will be making it's way into the stock. This stock has been in a downtrend for almost 2 weeks now, as depicted by the trendline I've drawn. OBV has curved upwards and we have a total of 3 virgin points of control lingering above the current price. If we can break above $29.07, we should easily see $30.07. I don't want to look too far ahead, so that will be my price target for now. There's so many bearish predictions on this stock, i have no problem being the outlier. I am studying volume profile / Volume price analysis and i believe my conviction to be true. Stocks are controlled by institutions, not common investors. Always follow the big money. Trend-line break and $30.00 coming soon.
MONTHLY VOLUME PROFILE + MONTHLY LEVELS TEMPLATE Link to the template - www.tradingview.com
Hey there! We're excited to share with you our amazing Trading View template that's designed to give you a head start on your analysis. We want to let you know that to fully take
advantage of the most indicators, you might need a Trading View subscription of sufficient level, but trust us, it's totally worth it!
The Volume Profile tool may not match the accuracy of others out there, but it still provides a useful overall idea that you won't find anywhere else. At Fostermans , we use this template
every day to get a Daily/Weekly/Monthly bias that sets us apart from the rest. Trading View has helped us dominate the markets through bull runs and bear runs, and we're confident this
template will help you do the same!
Thank you all PineScript coders for making something like this possible!
Furthermore, the following indicators have also been incorporated for your convenience:
- Volume Profile
- VWAP
- Volume + Volume Average
- OHLE Data
- Naked POCs + Developing POCs
- Value Area High/Lows
We're excited to hear about your trading journey with this template, so let us know down in the comments how it's going!
WEEKLY VOLUME PROFILE + WEEKLY LEVELS TEMPLATELink to the template - www.tradingview.com
Hey there! We're excited to share with you our amazing Trading View template that's designed to give you a head start on your analysis. We want to let you know that to fully take
advantage of the most indicators, you might need a Trading View subscription of sufficient level, but trust us, it's totally worth it!
The Volume Profile tool may not match the accuracy of others out there, but it still provides a useful overall idea that you won't find anywhere else. At Fostermans , we use this template
every day to get a Daily/Weekly/Monthly bias that sets us apart from the rest. Trading View has helped us dominate the markets through bull runs and bear runs, and we're confident this
template will help you do the same!
Thank you all PineScript coders for making something like this possible!
Furthermore, the following indicators have also been incorporated for your convenience:
- Volume Profile
- VWAP
- Volume + Volume Average
- OHLE Data
- Naked POCs + Developing POCs
- Value Area High/Lows
We're excited to hear about your trading journey with this template, so let us know down in the comments how it's going!
My ES Prep for week commencing 6th Feb 2023Market has been rallying despite potential upcoming recession. My suspicion that this is a large bull trap and there will be a large drop possibly even this week. Apple, Google and other large tech firms earnings were not great but their stocks mysteriously rallied. See their individual charts for possible gap up bull traps. Everything is poised for the rug to be pulled out for the current high greed in the market.
I have 3 possible gameplans depending on which direction they decide to to go first. I'm slightly biased towards the scenario where A and B get hit before a final rally before the long way down. However be ready for further upside pressure as the technicals would suggest a very bullish market (Which I don't believe), although it does appear to be overbought.
a.
IF we break and hold below C, look for high probability downside targets A and B.
THEN
EITHER rally to C, D, and E (More likely)
OR further downside targets of G,H,I
b.
IF we break and hold above D, look for targets E, F
THEN
EITHER further upside targets
OR once back below D play back down to G and C
c.
Play rotation between C and D
SPY - can this rally extend to the upside? As always, everything is possible. Just some important levels on chart for you to have in mind.
Short term and medium term uptrend, long term downtrend.
If we break the trendline I believe this rally could catch some further steam.
Risk here comes from trendline and 200 MA resistance. If we secure price above VCOP, this could be low risk trade to the upside with PT at - 410, 413, 430+, 437.
We also have price and MACD divergence.
Grey line is AVWAP from ATH and October low. Volume profile is also drawn on this chart.
Flawed concepts: the way they sell volume & market profilesImagine daily profiles put on each day on the chart, and let the words in purple provoke some fruitful doubts in your mind.
The presented and advertised way of using volume & market profiles is essentially a way of approximating the real levels. This way is very bad.
1) The most fundamental and very obvious flaw is that it disregards the sequence of events. You can take a chart, reshuffle bars in order, or lol, just invert it horizontally. and you'll end up with different charts that have the same profile. All good bro? It's time series lol, sequence does matter. That's why you can't use profiles and non-weighted stats unless you have a very specific goal;
2) 70% rule, normal distributions & standard deviations have nothing to do with aggregated tick data. As a process, it can all can be modeled as a morphing distribution, a constant fight between normal and uniform distributions, the double auction dynamic distribution. But yeah, ofc course you can't read it in a book, gotta think for yourself a lil aye? In normal distribution 70% make sense, in the uniform one it makes sense to consider 100% (the whole distribution) as the area of interest. So overall it's somewhere in between 70 and 100. Also, confirmed with my R&D, bots give the best performance when a price channel includes 80-90% of data (mostly 80), best metrics converge around this number;
The real way to use profiles is when you consciously need to disregard an order of events within a certain period and have some kind of summary of it. It's applicable when a certain period has some distinguishable significance: when levels are formed, positioned and cleared. There, you are not really interested in order of things within these events, rather in summaries of these events, there you're doing the right thing. Otherwise, POCs of 'every' period doesn't have equal significance. Summarizing volumes within a week/day/months etc, making a profile & taking 70% so you gonna get VAHs and VALs of it won't magically calculate you the real levels, only approximate em, but 4 real there are better and less computationally intensive ways of doing it, just get a box plot with 10th and 90th percentiles.
This video might be really mind opening for you, I really respect it & its creator.
If you wanna know how to find levels 4 real, check the linked ideas & use it with pleasure.
🔥✅HOW TO GET 70% WIN RATE USING VOLUME PROFILE🔥 Hi friends! Today we will talk about a very important trading tool that can give you 70% win rate if you will know how to use it as a pro trader. This tool is a volume profile.
📊 WHAT IS THE VOLUME PROFILE?
The volume profile is a real traded volume. Unlike the usual vertical volumes that show the amount of volume traded over a certain amount of time, the horizontal volume shows the volume traded over a certain price range.
The volume profile has 2 components:
🔥 value area (yellow areas), which is the biggest resistance/support for the price. There can be several value areas, but the largest value areas called HVN or High Volume Nodes.
🔥 liquidity gap (white area) is the area where the least volume is traded. Usually, the price "cuts" through these areas very quickly.
📊 HOW TO USE THE VOLUME PROFILE?
I want to show you how it works. If we want to understand the next price movement, we should identify the biggest value areas. So you see the most significant liquidity (value) areas and wait when the price tests it:
1. if the price breaks the value area and tests it as support , you can enter a trade because bulls are strong and the price should go higher.
🚩 The clear trade example on how to use HVN (value area) as support (+20% of clear move).
2. if the price test it as resistance , this means that bears are stronger and bulls haven`t enough power to push the price higher.
🚩 The clear trade example on how to use HVN (value area) as resistance (+26% of clear move).
So the value areas or HVN are a stop on the way of price movement in one direction or another. The better you determine where the price will go after testing this HVN (value area), the more profitable you will be.
🚩 If you use this approach on lower timeframes, you can get more trades. This is ideal if you are an intraday or swing trader.
Try using horizontal volumes yourself, and in the following ideas, I will tell you how I and other advanced traders use them.
✅ So this approach has 50-70% win rate, but if you want to increase it, you need to use additional filters.
Personally, I use the DOM and Footprint to identify the whales' orders and buy crypto with the big guys. These indicators can easily add 25-35% to your win rate. I make a lot of video lessons and articles about them, so enjoy and make money.
💻Friends, press the "boost"🚀 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy.
Always do your analysis before making a trade.
MMSMMarket Maker Sell Model/Smart Money Reversal
-great profile for sells
-low risk sells after smart money reversal (usually after a raid on buy-side liquidity
-target previous range of consolidation
-hindsight 20/20 but, learn to read these patterns to capitalize in real-time
-dxy increase = spx decrease
QQQ Uptrend BULL biasFrom the Daily Chart, QQQ is now in an uptrend above
the support of the daily SMA 50, 100, and 200 in somewhat of an ascending wedge pattern.
Distant support is the buy order zone while distant resistance is the
sell order zone above. Immediate ( and breakable ) resistance is
the POC of the volume profile.
I conclude that QQQ is in a sustained up-trend that could be entered
using a stop loss set just below the SMA 200 on the chart in blue.
What is your opinion? NASDAQ:QQQ Please comment.
NQ 7/8 Daily Plan*NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE*
Bullish Scenarios:
Longs above 12073 Targeting 12170
Longs above 12170 Targeting 12235
Longs above 12235 Targeting 12284
Longs Above 12284 targeting 12333
Bearish Scenarios:
Shorts below 12024 Targeting 11980
Shorts Below 11980 Targeting 11873
Shorts Below 11873 Targeting 11833
Shorts below 11770 Targeting 11710
btc for sell now on 30 min as we see on vp and the RSI the BTC just create a big green candle but as we see that green candle have a big mech on the top bigger than the 70% of the body so we have a big sell power coming and wen he close a lees 1 red candle below the power control lign we will be on the black hole or the rejected zone so he must goo above 29935
sorry for my bad language please feel great to tell me your idea
QQQ After market observations May 31st1. Overnight inventory was in balance as compared to Friday close - a bit lower but mostly in balance.
2. Price went down in first half hour and stalled at Friday value area low - Went up from there.
3. It was a very rotational and a very choppy day but there are no serious selling. Overall volume was very low.
4. POC was 7 bar wide (>50%)
5. Value area was higher than Friday and entire last week.
Overall, insignificantly positive day.
Long term critical levels:
Weekly high/low: 309/282
Monthly high/low: 330/280
Recent high/low - 280 / 330, 372
Critical VWAP levels: Blue VWAP lines on the chart
Critical Fibb levels: 350, 330, 315, 285, 260, 200
BTC $25K CapitulationUpdate on my previous prediction for BTC capitulation.
Usually that's a bounce off the 200SMA, but rather than just relying on lagging indicators heres some additional confluence towards that...
Looking at 2018 on the left, we can see that the December 2018 capitulation dipped to the 200SMA (yellow line), and also the first point of untested support on the volume profile (left green histogram and black arrow). Interestingly, that amounts to a 159% increase from the red volume profile "point of control" line to the bottom of the capitulation.
If we apply the same setup to 2022 on the right, we can see that the same capitulation setup could play out - $25K as the bottom would line up to the 200SMA, but also the first point of untested support on the volume profile as well as a 159% increase from the red point of control line.
Every cycle is different, but lets see what plays out. Will capitulation even happen?
BTC 2022 Bottom?Whilst my previous prediction did pick out $25K as the number for a bounce, and we saw a quick move back above $30K for some easy 30%+ gains on many ALTs, I failed to predict how a falling NASDAQ would impact BTC.
Based on this, and the power law corridor turning red, we are officially in 2018 bear repeat territory.
I've draw 2 zones as possible bottoms... the green box would be the ideal scenario - a short term dip between $15-$20K followed by a slow climb back up in 2023 whilst the market settles before the next bull run.
Red would be absolute capitulation. A full 80% drop as seen in 2018, back to the point of control in the volume profile, and hitting around $10K or just below.
Let's hope the market instead settles here and moves slowly up or sideways... but personally I'm keeping a large cash position until later in the year.