MASSIVE IMPACT ON GOLD OVER KEY FUNDAMENTALS**Gold (XAUUSD) Market Analysis – Key Fundamentals Driving Volatility**
Gold (XAUUSD) has experienced significant volatility due to major fundamental events impacting the financial markets. The recent large-scale liquidations in stocks and cryptocurrencies, along with the Bybit exchange hack, have contributed to heightened risk sentiment. Additionally, the ongoing US tariff disputes with Canada, Europe, and China have created further uncertainty, weighing on global economic stability.
Following a sharp decline, gold saw a strong recovery after the release of weaker-than-expected Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data, which raised concerns about the strength of the US economy. On the daily timeframe, a noticeable **market structure shift** has taken place. Price action has filled Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) and tapped into an Order Block (OB), leading to a correction and potential imbalance in the market.
At present, we anticipate a move to the downside, provided key fundamentals align with expectations. The primary factors to monitor include Ukraine’s agreement to a ceasefire, the upcoming **US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data**, and the impact of **US-Canada trade tariffs**. If these events unfold as expected, we may see gold decline toward the established support zones at **$2830 and $2780**.
However, a bullish breakout above the highlighted **4-hour Order Block (OB) in the $2925-$2945 region** would invalidate this bearish outlook. In such a case, gold could push higher, breaking the current market structure.
### **Fundamental Impact on Gold and the Economy:**
1. **Stock & Crypto Liquidations** – Risk-off sentiment has supported gold’s recovery but added volatility.
2. **Bybit Hack** – Raises concerns about crypto security, leading investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold.
3. **US Tariffs (Canada, Europe, China)** – Trade tensions create uncertainty, impacting the US dollar and global demand.
4. **Ukraine Ceasefire** – A reduction in geopolitical risks may weaken gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
5. **US CPI Data** – Inflation data will shape Federal Reserve policy, directly influencing gold prices.
### **Conclusion:**
Gold remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic and geopolitical events. A **sustained rejection** below the $2925-$2945 region supports further downside, targeting $2830-$2780. However, any breach above this level could signal renewed bullish momentum, leading to higher price levels. Traders should closely monitor fundamental developments before confirming a directional bias.
Profitlio
XAUUSD Update – Key Levels in Play!🚀 XAUUSD Update – Key Levels in Play!
📉 Major Support & Rebound
As predicted in our recent analysis, gold found strong support at $2880, triggering a bullish reversal. This move has sent XAUUSD soaring back above $2950, securing a +2.58% gain in the process.
🔥 Technical Setup & Key Observations
✅ Head & Shoulders Formation on Hourly – A clear bearish structure is forming, but confirmation is still required.
✅ Failed Breakout at $2940 – Gold attempted to push higher but failed to hold above resistance, moving back into the range.
✅ Critical Support at $2925 – This is the key level to watch. A confirmed break below could trigger a further drop toward $2900.
📊 What’s Next?
🔹 Bearish Scenario – If price breaks $2925, expect a decline toward $2900, with further downside possible.
🔹 Bullish Invalidations – If XAUUSD reclaims $2940, the head & shoulders pattern fails, and we could see a renewed rally toward $2960+.
🔹 Watch Volume & Momentum – Increased selling pressure will validate the bearish move, while strong buying at key levels may shift the trend.
🎯 Trading Plan & Strategy
📌 Short positions on a confirmed $2925 break, targeting $2900.
📌 Long positions only above $2940, with targets at $2960 and beyond.
📌 Stay cautious—this is a key inflection zone, and price action will dictate the next move.
💡 Gold’s next major move is in the making—are you positioned correctly? 🚀📊
XAUUSD Trade Recap & Next Big Opportunity!⭐️ Premium Club Short Trade @ 2929 - Target Achieved! 💰
Our recent short position from 2929 played out perfectly, hitting all targets with an impressive +290 pips in profit! 🎯
📉 Scalping the Golden Zone
As expected, we capitalized on the key support zone, securing an additional 100-120 pips on a quick long scalp. These fast-moving plays continue to deliver solid returns!
➡️ What’s Next for Gold?
Strong Support Zone Identified – Price has reached a critical demand area, signaling a potential short-term pullback.
1H Order Block Retest – We anticipate a retracement or a possible tag-in before further movement.
Risk-Reward Setup – A well-structured long entry from this zone could yield another profitable trade when markets open Monday.
Major Resistance in Place – Despite a bounce, selling pressure remains strong, and Friday’s momentum suggests further downside in the near term.
📈 Trading Plan:
🕹 Look for long setups at the identified support with a tight SL & proper R:R.
🕹 Keep an eye on the 1H bearish price action for confirmation of a continued move down.
🕹 If resistance holds firm, we could see another strong sell-off later in the week.
💡Stay ready for the next high-probability setup! 🚀
GOLD BEARISH PROJECTIONGold remains in a strong bullish trend, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions. We've seen multiple all-time highs forming as bullish momentum continues. Despite this, the stock market remains resilient at its highs, indicating that investors are not yet aggressively seeking safe-haven assets.
Currently, I’m focusing on the symmetrical triangle and the bullish channel that has formed. Given the price action, a pullback or retracement is likely, especially as the price tests the upper boundary of the channel. A strong rally followed the bullish breakout from the triangle, suggesting that this short-term surge may be reaching its conclusion. I anticipate a pullback to the 38%-50% Fibonacci retracement levels, as indicated on my chart. These levels align with the lower boundary of the channel, which has served as a key support line throughout the recent bullish trend.
BITCOIN BEARISH PROJECTION#Bitcoin is showing potential for downside momentum if the price confirms a breakout below key support. A confirmed breakdown could lead to a retracement toward the 200 EMA, aligning with a possible 38% Fibonacci correction. The double top formation has intensified bearish sentiment, pushing the price below $95K.
Additionally, fair value gaps on the left indicate that if selling pressure increases, the price could dip below $80K. The trendline drawn on the daily timeframe is also acting as a crucial support level to watch.
The market has been struggling, with panic setting in due to recent developments. This aligns with escalating trade tensions, driven by Donald Trump’s decisive actions regarding Canada and BRICS. Key events contributing to market uncertainty include the latest tariffs imposed on Canadian goods, potential restrictions on trade with BRICS nations, and heightened geopolitical friction. These factors have intensified volatility, prompting investors to reassess risks in the global economy.
USDJPY BEARISH PROJECTIONUSD/JPY experienced a strong decline, breaking below key hourly support and a significant trend line. The pair has since recovered from its lows, holding near the 50% retracement level and a support zone identified on the left after filling a crucial fair value gap. However, downside momentum still appears likely once the market settles from the current pullback, as the price has fallen below a critical resistance zone. We anticipate further downside movement, with potential retests of the lows at 151.6 and 149.3.
🇱🇰 ASI NEXT PROJECTION WITH MARKET REACTIONASI has indeed shown a breakout and subsequent pullback within the bullish structure identified on the hourly timeframe. We are currently in a phase of anticipation, expecting the price to acknowledge the breached trend line as a support given the recent pullback formation. However, if the price fails to respond positively to the trend line as a support, we could witness a further decline. This decline has the potential to push the price of ASI back inside the established structure and even prompt a revisit towards the support level.
⚡️ AUDUSD SMC TRADING SETUP ⚡️ | 4 HourAUD/USD has acquired liquidity above the preceding Order Block and subsequently descended below this liquidity level following a Change of Character (ChoCh). In this context, we have pinpointed a point of interest marked by an exceptional level of Order Block (OB) and Fair Value Gap (FVG) alignment. The expectation is for the price to retest this OB, providing another favorable opportunity for a short entry.
⚡️ GBPUSD SMC TRADING SETUP ⚡️ | 4 HourGBP/USD has acquired liquidity above the preceding Order Block and subsequently descended below this liquidity level following a Change of Character (ChoCh). In this context, we have pinpointed a point of interest marked by an exceptional level of Order Block (OB) and Fair Value Gap (FVG) alignment. The expectation is for the price to retest this OB, providing another favorable opportunity for a short entry.
⚡️ EURUSD SMC TRADING SETUP ⚡️ | 30 MINSEUR/USD has validated a Change of Character (ChoCh) against its prevailing bullish order flow. This development is poised to generate a bearish impact on the identified Order Block, especially after the completion of the Fair Value Gap (FVG). A substantial short trade is anticipated based on this interpretation.
NZDCAD SHORT PROJECTIONNZD/CAD, following the identification of a Change of Character (ChoCh) within the major bullish order flow, has experienced a subsequent ChoCh to the upside accompanied by a Break of Structure (BoS). Currently, the strategy involves waiting for a downward ChoCh confirmation, which is anticipated to be fulfilled by the recently formed Fair Value Gap (FVG).
GBPUSD SHORT ENTRYGBP/USD has once again approached the Order Block after successfully filling the identified Fair Value Gap (FVG). Anticipating a sell-off in this scenario, we are focused on the Order Block. The expectation is that the price will retreat towards the identified swing low, which also coincides with a substantial Fair Value Gap (FVG) in the lower region.
CADCHF LONG ENTRYIn the context of CAD/CHF, the essential Fair Value Gap (FVG) has been filled following the identification of a Change of Character (ChoCh). The predetermined Order Block (OB) indicates a bullish sentiment, evident as the price revisited and showed strength around the highlighted levels. Expectations are for the price to persist in its rally toward the next formed swing high, thereby completing the external structural order flow.
AUDNZD LONG PROJECTIONAUD/NZD has recently validated a ChoCh (Change of Character) within the bearish order flow, particularly on the 4-hour timeframe. In this scenario, there was an observable Fair Value Gap (FVG) alongside a crucial Order Block (OB). Currently, the strategy involves awaiting a price movement to purge liquidity in the vicinity of the identified Order Block before the anticipated rally.
EURCHF LONG ENTRYEUR/CHF has recently confirmed a ChoCh (Change of Character) on the major order flow, accompanied by multiple Breaks of Structure (BoS) indicating a reversal. The price has retraced back towards the most recent Order Block (OB), where we observe demand and bullish sentiment in close proximity to the highlighted zone.
BTCUSDT SHORT PROJECTIONBitcoin experienced a recent decline that negated the previous price surge. During this downturn, a technical analysis on lower timeframes revealed the formation of a double top pattern. Further analysis identified a significant structure characterized by an expanding channel within the hourly timeframe. The current scenario suggests a probable retest of the lower boundary, echoing the dynamics of the recent sell-off.
RLC SHORT ENTRYRLC has experienced a breakout trend under the hourly timeframe amidst the recent crypto sell-off. Anticipating a continued decline due to increased selling pressure, especially with the confirmed breakout identified on the 4-hour timeframe. We foresee the price testing the most recent swing lows established during the previous bull run.
BRWN LONG PROJECTIONBRWN has pinpointed a significant support level on the daily timeframe, coinciding with the formation of a descending triangle. Should the price successfully validate a bullish breakout in line with our analysis, a promising upward rally appears imminent. Anticipating a substantial bullish momentum, with the potential to reach levels close to the most recent swing high post-confirmation.
🇱🇰 SAMP LONG PROJECTIONSAMP is gradually ascending towards the established resistance level. A robust bullish trend is taking shape within the identified bullish channel on the daily timeframe. As SAMP approaches the resistance, it is prudent to await price confirmation before determining the next directional move.
GBPUSD LONG ENTRYThe GBP/USD pair has recently developed a falling wedge pattern on the hourly timeframe, and there is now a notable bullish breakout observed at the upper boundary of the pattern. This breakout signals a potential reversal, suggesting a continuation of upward movement towards the next resistance level.