MSFT Cycle DeviationMSFT has an extreme deviation pattern for its business cycle. The Detrending Price Oscillator Indicator for cycle analysis shows an extreme speculative price mode is underway. Risk of profit-taking by Professional Traders is increasing as the stock continues to climb speculatively.
Profittaking
Purple Crypto Premium - September 2019 ProfitsI wanted to share this beauty of a chart by the team at Monero.
I love geometry, shapes, waves and everything else in between. I wonder where it will head to next...A, B or C? ;)
At Purple Crypto Premium, we have had a ripper of a month in September of precision trades with on-point signals.
Total trades: 3
Profiting trades: 3
Losing trades: Nil
TOTAL RETURNS: 73.5%
TOTAL AVERAGED RETURNS: 24.5% (73.5% / 3 trades)
First up, MATIC/USDT. This was a ripper generating 2 profiting trades in a short space of time - 18% and 12.5% - total 30.5% profits over the space of 2 weeks.
Next up was LINK/USDT. Chainlink was somewhat disappointing, not fully reaching targets after an initial successful breakout from the pennant. Even so, we managed a 25% profit at the trigger of the stop loss at 2.0.
And finally, our friends at Bitcoin Cash gave us a small handout. While not reaching peaks, BCHABC/USDT made us 18% profit in the space of two weeks.
Stay tuned for more "secret" charts, "read between the lines" messages and intended puns....because the real juicy stuff is only on Purple Crypto Premium.
CERN Testing Previous HighCERN gapped in April to quickly complete the short-term bottom formation. It ran up on pro traders and smaller funds buying in the past few days. It is now nearing the previous high’s resistance of last August. This may create a retracement due to profit-taking by the professional traders.
CTRP Retracement at SupportCtrip.com International has been in a retracement for over 2 weeks. It is now holding at a support level, and indicators are strengthening. This may result in another run. The retracement is due primarily to profit taking.
ADTN: Bottom completionADTN broke through moderate resistance to confirm a completion of its short-term bottom formation. ADTN has a previous all-time high of approximately $47.00. Profit-taking is likely as it nears the resistance from the lows of the prior sideways pattern above the current price.
BLK: Ran up to today's earnings, strong resistance overheadBLK had a run up ahead of its earnings report and then had a mild profit-taking day before the release. Volume is increasing as it reaches a stronger resistance level on today's earnings report reaction. Blackrock is the largest Derivatives Developer of Exchange Traded Products for the stock market. ETFs are its specialty.
JNJ: Stuck in a trading range, buybacks are supporting the stockA weekly chart reveals the long-term trading range in which JNJ has been stuck. This Dow component ran up due to buybacks around the start of this year. But the trend and volume-based indicators show a lack of quiet accumulation by Dark Pools. The stock slid down ahead of its earnings release today and gapped up slightly on the report, but there has been considerable profit-taking today as well. So JNJ remains bound in a narrower range just below the trading range highs, where it could languish for some time.
CHKP: Intermittent Dark Pool accumulation and Pro TradersCHKP is one of the few stocks that has breached its previous all-time high, corrected mildly and then resumed the uptrend to new higher highs. The stock has a mixture of retail traders, pro traders and mild Dark Pool accumulation at times. The momentum will stall intermittently with profit taking from professionals.
AMD Momentum Run, Velocity Run, Profit-takingAMD has run with momentum driven by pro traders’ activity. The Pros will often be the initial driving force behind a Velocity run (see rectangle around the velocity run.) A velocity run is different from a momentum run as the candles do not overlap. One thing for options traders to remember is that when pro traders are swinging a giant lot trade for a short-term profit, they will often buy Option Puts as an insurance policy against the risk. So rising Option Puts doesn’t mean that the “options market thinks this stock will go down.” Rather, a surge of options puts with a velocity run is indicative of pro traders.
Currently the stock is under heavy large-lot profit-taking. Smaller funds are buying too late in the run.
Intermediate Trading Strategy - Part 3In the previous post we discussed risk:reward, profit taking and trailing stop losses. If you have not read part 1 and part 2 then you are highly recommended to start there.
Taking Profit
Always taking partial profits, never making decisions for the full position. This is true when entering and this is true when exiting. It minimizes anxiety and emotional decision making.
In Trending Markets: Stop loss is trailed once new highs/lows are established. If long then move it up to be slightly under the recent low and if short move it slightly above the most recent high. This can generally be illustrated with Bill Williams Fractals on the weekly and daily charts. Full profit can be taken on the third test of a trendline.
In Parabolic Markets: I like to gamble on house money, it makes me feel much more comfortable about the draw downs. Here is an example for how to take profits in a parabolic market: If +100% then take 10%-20% off the table. If +100% again then take another 15%-25% off the table. Keep doing this as long as price is making all time highs.
Take full profit if phase 4 or phase 3 of hyperwave is violated
If weekly and daily RSI (with 30 setting) are > 80 then take full profit. If Welles Wilder’s ADX is > 50 on the weekly and/or > 60 on the daily then time to take full profit.
For Bitcoin' watch for NVT to reach overbought zones and consider how this metric will be affected by Lightning Network and batching transactions.
If Trading a Pattern: A chart pattern will indicate a profit target. If your reason for entering the trade was the chart pattern then do not get greedy with the profit target! Relying on a trailing stop will often cause a trader to miss out on a large part of the profit when trading a pattern.
Be very specific about what you are investing in long term/hodling and what you are using to trade.
If investing/hodling then put into cold storage and don’t do anything for a minimum of 10 years.
In the final post we will delve into the best indicators and provide guidelines for when they are most effective.
Bitcoin (BTC) MA Death/Golden Cross Analysis (Part 3) ---> +14%Hello all! This is an extension of my previous analyses on wave trading CEXIO:BTCUSD . I'm using:
90-hour Moving Average
Basic Candles Techniques
Current Price and Volume
RSI
To clarify, I am long-term bullish about CEXIO:BTCUSD but am looking to profit off of the waves that we're seeing now. My goal is not to identify the ultimate peak and the ultimate valley, but trade on strong indicators. This method has strongly outperformed the simple buy-and-sell as long as you are able to maintain some composure and trade only once when the MA crosses the price a bunch of times in a short period of time (see yesterday for what I mean).
We've completed the first full-cycle segment of the trade, the summary is posted below:
Segment 1
02/26/2018 - BUY $10,000
03/05/2018 - SELL $11,400
03/11/2018 - BUY $9,750
Beginning ($): $10,000
Ending ($): $11,400
Beginning (BTC): 1.00
Ending (BTC): 1.17
Segment 2
03/11/2018 - BUY $9,750
TBD - SELL TBD
TBD - BUY TBD
Beginning ($): $11,400
Ending ($): TBD
Beginning (BTC): 1.17
Ending (BTC): TBD
REGN Profit takingBiotech Basket
I have reevaluated my REGN holdings, and have placed stop limits to both take profits, and a more protective conservative stop to close out my position entirely. My last stop has been hit (today) and now I am aggressively placing 35% of my position in a Stop at the 50% retracement level. A second stop limit is at the 38% retracement. The final portion is marked as position close.
The current level appears to be very destructive, Its very possible we have just finished markup and we are in the beginning of a distribution phase. If this is the case, the downtrend will be long and very destructive to share price. Its time to be prepared to take profits!
Gold - The air is getting very thinAfter breaking through the six year downtrend-line in the last week of July the gold price continuously gained momentum and was finally able to break through the strong resistance zone around 1,300 USD in the last week of august. This super bullish breakout fueled the rally in the last 10 trading days and gold has now reached my first target zone around 1,350 USD.
Between 1,345 USD and 1,355 USD gold is meeting a strong cluster of resistance in a very overbought fashion. Although prices are still climbing along the upper Bollinger Band (1,355 USD) on the daily chart they are way above the weekly Bollinger Band (1,330 USD). Yes, you can see up to five sometimes even seven candles above or below these bands in a row but this is very unusual and probability clearly speaks against any immediate more upside.
On the positive the daily stochastic is bullish embedded which has the uptrend locked in as long as both lines of the oscillator remain above 80. But on the 4h chart I have spotted a growing negative divergence meaning the stochastic oscillator is not confirming the recent new highs anymore.
I would be surprised to see gold close the week above 1,350 USD. Instead I think we might witness a first wave of profit taking rather very soon.
If instead gold can continue to climb the next target zone sits between 1,370 USD and 1,380 USD. Yes, even a quick intraday spike towards 1,400 USD is possible but in my humble view very unlikely here.
My advise is to tighten your stops (at least 1,334 USD) and wait for the next larger dip which should bring gold towards or even below 1,300 USD again.
After a pullback we might see gold moving towards 1,380 USD which could be the final 5th wave of this rally followed by a larger and more complex correction/consolidation.
Until spring 2018 I still expect gold to move towards 1,500 USD.