Projections
VISL - Future Projection (3 Month Analysis)Hello,
I'm completely new to trading though I am an accountant, I have a lot to learn. Please, critic and fill up the comments with questions.
For this specific analysis, it is a small fish that is growing. I see, huge potential for swing trading this growing stock.
My insta is: @aahlexj
I have a Discord with several friends, we are open to traders!
TESLA T.A.TSLA has been a very interesting stock to watch. Since October 2019 TSLA rose 270% reaching its highest point at almost 1000$ per share, to then lose 60% of its value by mid March and gaining another 150% to reach current levels.
The volatility for this stock has been quite remarkable and offered great trading opportunities.
What to expect next from current levels?
From our technical prospective we se two possible scenarios playing out from the current move.
- The first scenario see price failing to break the red zone suggesting a retest of the 38% fib and eventually the 61.8% aligned with the neckline of the double bottom around 550 levels.
- The second require the price break the red resistance turning it into support for long entries aiming the yellow resistance which is the maximum extension of the given pattern.
Always keep in mind that trading is reactive so be patient and wait for price action to give you confirmations before to take any position.
GOLD The past week started with the price retesting the asymmetric triangle formed during almost a month of consolidation to then skyrocket into a new high.
This has been a great move filling up the pockets of the ones who played the breakout. Now the question is..., where are we heading from here?
When looking at the Monthly, Weekly and Daily Gold is clearly in an uptrend with the 200, 50 and 21 MA perfectly aligned.
Price is still within the red zone which represent a strong resistance zone. A clear break above 1750$ might suggest an extension move into the mid 18 hundreds.
However a fail to close above the 1750s brigs back the possibility to target the low 1600s as the harmonic suggests.
Gold is giving out great trading opportunities have fun with it ;)
AAPL: Running out of steam (short term)AAPL hit 3 consecutive price projections and is currently showing signs of a possible pullback (the fading demand / momenum on BoP and MACD).
it's not clear how strong that pullback would be but it will be short term and i'm waiting for a chance for re-entry to the long side :)
comment and share thoughts if you agree
Bitcoin's journey through halvings: are you ready?Hello fellow traders. Hope you all well and safe during these quarantine times.
As we approach halving time, it's definitely good to take an overall look at BTC's journey till here, and what the future can bring to us, if history continues to follow same fractal patterns.
Hope you are ready.
Cheers!
SNAP: Getting ready to break the $18 ?SNAP showing signs of strength - already broke above the 1st range on a backdrop of demand (Volume Viewer) and bullish sentiment (green BoP)
getting ready to break the 2nd range and move above $18 ?
will come back and add a price projection shortly
PYPL: can it pick up that lost track? i still like PYPL - and i beleive it was on a growth track to hit the $130 level, which was interrupted when the global / US market got hit by the CV situation - as a business, the fundamentals are still right and sound (don't want to say "strong" - i'm not qualified for that :)), and that's a business that shouldn't much impacted by the ongoing situation, on the contrary there's more demand on online shopping and payment services
prior to the sudden change, PYPL was one of these "well-behaved" stocks where price projections were relatively accurate (see the greenbox, and previous posts) - so what if it recovers now and starts getting back on track on the price growth movement.
The yellow circle is the scenario that "got interrupted" - the green circle is the new projection in that case -- we may see a rise to the $$120-$125 range in or before Q3 this year. however, for the time being, this is pure speculation -- just a "what-if" exercise, until we get strong confirmation of any recovery - but in all cases, i like PYPL in the buy zone between the 2 yellow lines - hope next week will give us an entry ..
if you like me to share these types of projections / "what-if" scenarios, let me know in the comment - and please *do not* take them for granted and do your own analysis and cross-check my assumptions before you trade - i can be totally off :)
please stay safe!
TWTR: Projection for the upcoming earnings Watching TWTR and trying to make a projection based on price structure from recent moves. the projection count shows a possible move of around $8.0 to $8.4 from a baseline at the $22.0 level
seems too big of a jump? well, given that SNAP has just excited the market with a 30% move on earnings this week, this scenario with TWTR doesn't look too wild. Note there's a larger price projection on TWTR to $35 but that may take sometime to happen.
Game plan: since i'm already long TWTR and don't plan to sell the stock, if TWTR hits that level on earnings, i would look at a quick post-earnings play to the downside. either sell CC or buy some protective PUTs. i have a rule against selling CC ahead of the earnings :)
Let's keep an eye on this for next week.
BITCOIN what to do?Bitcoin is respecting the long term trend line forming a descending triangle, which we have reasons to believe will hold for about 210 days yet consolidating between the 4000s and 8000s.
The 9th of march BTC completed the XABCD pattern so called "Bat" type and reached the first target zone into the 7000s. Expectations after the current move are that BTC will continue higher aiming second target zone above 8000$ possibly testing again the long term trend line.
ZM: 03-14 projection update for next 4-6 weeksUpdating our ZM projection after the big run - there are 2 possible scenarios, a continuation (upward) and a reversal down after distribution - both explained on the chart.
issue is, we still don't have much information to confirm either one or the other - so will need to update later - maybe in a week or 2 after the move reveals itself
now ZM had had a big run given they benefit from the increasing demand on "remote work" and "distant learning" globally with the CV-19 situation - but the thing is, the price became way over-inflated and started to show continuous signs of weakness - possibly due to profit taking - if i hold ZM i would definitely sell it now after a 50% gain in just 3 weeks, then wait for the next wave - lock that revenue in my P&L - that would explain why ZM hasn't been reacting positively to "recovery days" like other tech stocks. that alone would make a short-term distribution scenario more possible - but the long term is still bullish and the demand is expected to continue, but once the fundamentals are "corrected" vs current inflation. either ways, it's strongly advised to wait for a confirmation of whatever ove we get, and make more research before making any trade decisions here. the market is too volatile and requires a lot more rigor in risk aversion.
comment and feedback welcome.
Australian dollar AUD exposed vs 3 major global currencies. Monthly.
It will end in the range box. The breakdown is valid. Retest is missing and is likely to occur next.
Prior DM breakdown projection from the innermost shadow sends AUD into the range box.
Top Absolute Correlation
1 AUDUSD - AUDCHF 93.3%
2 AUDUSD - AUDSGD 92.7%
3 AUDUSD - NZDUSD 92.1%
4 AUDUSD - USDNOK -90.9%
5 AUDUSD - AUDCAD 89.0%
6 AUDUSD - AUDJPY 88.3%
7 AUDUSD - USDSEK -88.2%
8 AUDUSD - EURHUF -87.5%
9 AUDUSD - USDHUF -86.4%
10 AUDUSD - XAUAUD -84.4%
Is It The Ghost of Bitcoin Future?
Or, Are those Sunny Skis ahead?
6-Apr-20
With the entire world a bit shaken by everything in it including the Support and Price of Bitcoin is now a good time to see how historically Bitcoin has turned the corner after being “clipped” by a “Black Swan”?
You might say we can’t like Peter Schiff since its history is too young to reference the “2020 Black Swan” or as I like to call it, 2020BS.
But what if we look back, looking back monthly to daily? What I’ve seen is it’s not as much Bitcoin Supporters but rather the Bitcoin M&T, the Marketers and Token Generators who; to hear them tell it have beaten back “Black Swans” Year in and Year out for 10 years and they are right. Fraud, Theft, Scams, Politics, Courts and Competition. But it’s time someone told them that’s not what 2020BS is all about.
It’s about the “Clipping”
The Yellow dashed line is a historical line identifying the center of this current long trend. Following it back to the left tells us it recently was some support and we can expect it to be a Fortress of resistance. Even now it supports both the 200 and 100 EMA’s.
Will the roll back to green any time soon? I would guess not from the width of it. That would be like me trying to roll over on the floor and be just as funny. It’s certainly not getting the support it needs from the 200 and 100 EMA’s
Using the Bars Pattern I selected the pattern that 2020BS cut when the Swan came through.
It begins on 04 Mar 20 and ends on 13 MAR 20.
I cloned and mirrored it into 5 configurations I found feasible and named them in this order
I Probable, Spring Green
II Possible, Moon Yellow
III Maybe, Wine Red
IV Probably Not, Not White
V BINGO On the Kisser Red
I used my polyline skills to make it easier to see.
Thanks once again for letting me share my Bitcoin outlook.
Remember. This is not trading advice. Follow me if you wish, share it if you want and please engage the like button and add your comments below.
Does the Williams Alligator Have A Hold on Bitcoin?
It's a new week so we should take a look at the weekly chart to help us keep a clear and open mind concerning which direction Bitcoin might be heading next.
I'm made some modifications to the stock colors of my Williams Alligator by changing the color of the teeth to white and the lips to red. I have also shortened the offset of the jaw, lips and teeth to 2 and changed the lengths to my personal taste.
When the lips are on top it indicates that the Alligator is content with a full stomach brought on by higher prices. And when something spooks the Alligator or he just needs to slow his appetite from a steadily rising market he rolls over and tries to drag his prey to the bottom of the pond where he can drowned it before getting on to his next meal. Or so I've been led to believe.
Remember. This is not trading advice. Follow me if you wish, share it if you want and please engage the like button and add your comments below. Happy Trading.
MSFT: 03/26 short term reversal, possible price targetwe have a short-term reversal pattern showing a possible calculated price projection of $160 to $164 - mid-point $162, and interestingly $162 was both a key support & resistance level in the prior down move.
my thought, this is valid for next couple of trading days only, the mid-to-long-term / prevailing sentiment is still down. expecting any long move to be short-lived, for now.
Let's see how accurate our calculation is.
stay safe!
EU easy 800 pip short. Follow the chart & count your profits. New to Tradingview but veteran to Forex markets. Follow the charts and I will help spread the wealth.
This is a common pattern that the MM love to produce on EURUSD. From this area, most long term level traders would be expecting almost a full retrace back to level 1. However, this will most certainly not get there as the recent stop hunt elucidates their true intentions. From here they will look to move price up to the 1.12642 area. I assume price won't reach this locus until some point after Tuesday because this slight move up will become the pin (trap) for the new monthly bar. The logic behind this slight ascension above recent resistance/fibs will be to stop out any weak shorts who are in correct position, while providing MM with new longs who will be trapped on the wrong side of the imminent descension. After they collected orders and displaced retail traders, price will drop like a rock down to the 1.0350 area. When price reaches the 1.0350 area it will drop even further. I will post a prediction for price flow when it reaches that level.
Good luck all. Follow the prediction, stack your chips & don't be long.
GoG
AAPL: Price projection updateis it strange that i should feel happy that my previous projection was bull's-eye accurate, but i'm not? (see linked post from few weeks ago) - we even hit that projection a week earlier.
(my projection was based on historic behavior of the AAPL stock in a down markets or in response to negative news in the past)
Today on the weekly chart, AAPL is sill showing a backdrop of bullishness (the green background on my lower BoP indicator), but on the daily chart, this has completely been depleted as seen here on this chart.
now if we cross below the $270 level, i will buy ATM PUTs 2 or 3 months out - and in that case, i would be looking at the $215-$220 as a new "worst case" - and that would be almost 33% off the all time high price - and given the ambiguity of the economic situation, and the bad earnings call expected in April, that even may not be the worst we get. i will update projection further once there's some enough patterns & price structure to make the calculations - which is very difficult for now.
AAPL: Should i go long now ?many fellow traders asking this question - i've been thinking the same for couple of weeks now :)
to propose an answer, here's a 5yr weekly dual (Candle vs Renko) view of AAPL
Note: i used a low-res, $2, Renko block cause i purposefully wanted to "zoom out" and remove as much price fluctuation and noise as i can
the idea:
---------
in the past 5 years, there have been few, 3 or 4, big drops like the one we're seeing now
- AAPL will recover, an will resume its strength as a technology leader - and it's a good investment to those who are in for the long game
- one of the easiest ways to see a good high probability (for these long term investors) entry points, is to wait until we cross the 50EMA (the blue line) on the weekly $2 Renko going up
- we just crossed 50ema down, so that recovery may take few weeks or even months to happen - but when it does, you can ride that next wave up confidently
- meanwhile, we can take short-term swings, but they are much less predictable - and in that case, i suggest you also use a similar set up but put Renko to a $0.5 or even $0.25 block and use an hourly or 10min time
- the circle i highlighted is the 2015 pattern that i think we're about to see something similar to - very "roughly" similar, nothing exact.
green lines to all!
MSFT: Possible Support at $160sharing my short-term projection for the rest of this week - let's see how accurate we can get
- expecting that if we break the $167 level going down tomorrow, then next possible support is at the $162-$160 range - we're not that far from there.
- thing to note is, MSFT is not hit as hard as APPL, but will still go thru the correction before any continuation up. Note how negative the news is focused on all the big tech.
AAPL: updated short-term projectionThe news will be driving the market this week - it already started last week and forced AAPL price down into the forecast zone from my last post
Futures are already in the negative for all 3 major US indices ahead of the Monday market open and so are the ASIA indices. that can be a hint for an open to the downside. If AAPL opens with a gap down, this may scare some longs and also hit stop losses & trailing stops, then we get an accelerated move down that can't be balanced by those who are looking to buy on the dip - a week that opens like that may take us to the $290 - $292 range. But that's only one of many possible scenarios - will see.
* it's hard to tell what happens after but we still maintain the same projection levels, and the projected mid-march target for now - as my most probable scenario - until more details of the price structure develop.
* note that the long terms view continues to be positive for AAPL especially in an election year where the "growing US stock market" is expected to be a tag line - but not before we see a short-term correction that may have started already - driving the stock down to a level that is favorable for accumulation.
i have a small short position (using March puts) that i expect won't stay on for more than a week or 2.
ZM Accelerated, new target updateZM is running up in an accelerated way - here's where i think the next target will be.
so far, we hit 4 exact spots (see previous chart). while we hit the last target level, it was way sooner than expected. i'm trying to get the target projections more accurate both in price level and time - but time is way too tricky and unpredictable.
there is big money behind these moves so need to be careful - the business model is great, but this is still a small player, compared to the big guys - the fundamentals don't add up (yet). i'm already out after a quick long call that went well - no regrets for missing the big 1000% move (seriously, it was > 1,000 % !) - will be looking at an opportunity to go back in.
MSFT short term projectionNASDAQ:MSFT - i have been reluctant to publish a target projection on MSFT, since it broke out of all historic trends and went into an extended move towards the sky.
- then i looked back / zoomed out to the weekly time frame - and voila! there seems to be some clues that this move will reach objective at the $191 to $195 range - and i strongly feel this will happen faster than what the best historic growth projection shows (the golden arrow) - so i think within this week or next.
= Then my most possible scenario from there, is to start a distribution phase - where some big traders cash out and lock some profit, then drive the stock down into a reasonable buy zone to start the whole process again.
- we can see some selling into strength by big money already begun (big volume and narrow price spread) - and they're leveraging the very positive sentiment (which has been recently declining) and strong wind behind the excitement.
feel free to share thoughts or "follow" this idea to track what the price does against the projection. it's an interesting exercise!
pls remember, no one can predict the future - no matter what indicators are used. these projections are just math and statistical probabilities - pls do your own due diligence as you design your trades.
Where I see BTC heading based on Elliot Wave / Fibonnacci theoryI published a pretty messy chart on Jan 29th. This is a much cleaner chart that shows the waves falling within the Elliot/Fib guidelines. With a projected finish of 11,600 before we go into a major correction.
