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Why NVDA was not a good candidate for Selling Short last weekBy Friday last week in NASDAQ:NVDA , Support of the Market created an inside day to reversal rebound white candle that engulfed, indicating that the minor drop down out of this trading range was just that: a minor slip of price to below fundamental levels. Volume was well above average and Volume Oscillators--TSV, TTVA or Chaikin Osc--ticked up along with money inflows. Never assume that a break to the downside from a stable sideways trend is going to continue down. Inside days are no longer a "sure thing" for selling short. Along with support from a bottom formation, the minor nudge before the black candle that dropped below the low of the sideways trend also was a factor in determining that NVDA was not going to run down. Sell short risk was exceedingly high based on these factors.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Beyond Basic Candlestick Pattern AnalysisLearning to Recognize Who Is Controlling the Stock Price There is a plethora of training on Candlestick Pattern Analysis and interpretation, and yet this remains one of the most problematic areas for Technical Traders who want to trade at the expert level. Once the basics of Japanese Candlestick Patterns are understood, it is time to move up to the next tier of analysis. That is being able to recognize not only where a pattern is, but also who forms that pattern, why they are capable of creating that pattern, what automated orders generate that pattern, and which Market Participant Groups react or chase that pattern. Nowadays it has become critical to include Volume with Candlestick Analysis, because this provides the basis for recognizing which Market Participant Group created that candle pattern. Candlestick Pattern Analysis at the expert level involves more than just one to three candles. Instead it includes a larger group of candles in the near term. This is what I call "Relational Analysis." This is especially useful for Swing Traders, Momentum Traders, Velocity Traders, Swing Options Traders, and Day Traders using Swing Style Intraday action. The NYSE:RAMP chart is an excellent example of a Candlestick Pattern for Swing Style Trading. See where High Frequency Traders (HFTs) took control of price, and gapped the stock down for one day on extreme volume. Selling did not continue the following two days, and Volume was above the Moving Average, but much lower than the High Frequency Traders' spiking Volume pattern. This was the first accumulation level for this stock. Dark Pools started buying the stock even though High Frequency Traders were selling, since they typically miss this initial buy mode of the giant Institutions. High Frequency Traders typically create the final gap down to the low which, if it reverses quickly, indicates a Buy Zone area for the Dark Pools. These patterns are what I call "Shifts of Sentiment." They happen in bottom formations where buying is generally dominated by the Largest Institutions' quiet accumulation. The next phase will be when Professional Traders and then High Frequency Traders discover the Dark Pool accumulation. The bottom is not complete, but it shifts sideways if more Dark Pools decide to buy.
NYSE:RAMPEducation
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
SNPS Breakout Potential to the UpsideNASDAQ:SNPS has been range-bound since 2023 and is finally showing technical patterns that reveal Dark Pool hidden accumulation, pro trader nudges, and the potential for HFTs to gap and run the stock upward. This stock is setting up to challenge the all-time high. Often in the current Moderately Up-trending Market Condition, HFTs will gap the stock over the resistance level. So keep the stock on a watchlist to look for pro trader nudges or resting-day candles that indicate the pros are attempting to trigger HFTs to gap the stock up. IF the HFTs gap the stock, then pro traders will take profits immediately, selling into the foray of retail traders chasing the gap. The goal is to enter before a potential gap. The stock may not gap. However, the pattern is indicative of more HFT activity.
NASDAQ:SNPS
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Buybacks vs. Dark Pool RotationThis lesson is about understanding the dynamics behind corporate buybacks. Sell-Side Institutions, aka the Banks of Record, have their floor traders do the actual buying of shares on behalf of the corporation. However, the Dark Pools, meaning the Buy-Side Institutions, start selling as the buybacks are going on. This training will help you enter a buyback sooner and exit with higher profits for swing trading. We'll study the NASDAQ:AAPL chart to identify buyback candlestick patterns and how to see when the Dark Pools are selling to lower inventory, which is called "rotation." You will also see how the TTAccum/Dist indicator works, and how I use this excellent, leading Hybrid Indicator to aid in my analysis.
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
3
HFTs gaps: Learn how to enter a stock before a huge gap up.High Frequency Trading companies are market makers/takers that provide liquidity for the public exchanges, and they now use AI. HFTs have a huge impact on your profitability. You can make higher profits from trading ahead of the HFT gaps and riding the momentum upward or downward. In this short video, you'll learn some basics on how to identify the patterns that precede HFT gaps, which I call Pro Trader Nudges . Learn what to look for in Volume patterns and pre-gap price action. Make sure you are not chasing HFTs but riding the wave of momentum they create, just like professional traders do.
PEducation
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
2
Dark Pool Buy Zones Explained with Pro Trader Nudge SignalsThis lesson is about how to identify when a hidden quiet accumulation of a stock is underway and how to prepare for the momentum runs that follow. NYSE:DIS is our example for today. Dark Pool activity is explained in detail. Alternative Transaction System (ATS) Venues are called Dark Pools of Liquidity. A Buy Zone is an extended period of hidden accumulation of often millions of shares of stock over several weeks to months. Professional traders use these buy zones to enter on the penny spread and instigate a trigger of HFT gaps to the advantage of the pro trader. Learn how you can profit from this activity for swing trading or position trading.
NYSE:DISEducation
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
1
What Is Money Flow In & Out of a Stock? And Why Should You Care?Professionals often speak of money flowing in or out of a stock, but how can that be if there is an equal number of buyers and sellers? It is because “Money Flow” comes from the balance of the lot sizes. There are four possible positions in any one stock: Buy Buy to Cover Sell Sell Short Each investor and trader in the stock has their own separate agenda. Each may come from a different Market Participant Group. There are now 9 Stock Market Participant Groups, starting from those who buy first, at the bottom of a new upward cycle: The giant Buy Side Institutions who invest Mutual and Pension Funds and/or create ETFs and other kinds of stock market derivatives. The Sell Side Institutions, aka the big banks and major market makers Wealthy Individual Investors Corporations Institutional/ Pro Traders High Frequency Traders (HFTs) Small Funds Individual Small-Lot Investors, Investment Groups and Individual Retail Traders Odd-Lot Investors Buyers are anticipating that the stock is going to move up. Their stock order types span the spectrum, for example: Market Orders, Limit Orders, Stop Orders. Buy to Cover Orders are placed by traders who sold short and are now taking profits. Those who are selling the stock are anticipating that the stock is going to move down. In an uptrending stock, this is profit-taking near the top of the run. It can also be similar in a downtrending stock because the seller is afraid that the stock is going to move down more, and they have been holding through what they thought was a short retracement. Most of these stock order types will be “Sell at Market” (SAM). Sell Short Traders are anticipating that the stock is going to move down, and they can place a variety of orders just like the buyers. Both Buyers and Sell Shorters are entering the trade, while Buy to Covers and Sellers are exiting the trade. It is the mix of these different types of buying and selling coupled with the kind of investor or trader and the size of their share lots that causes money to flow in or out of a stock. If the buyers are mostly large lots and the sellers are mostly small lots, who is in control? The buyers purchasing large lots . This is because, at some point, there will not be enough small-lot sellers, and those who are Selling Short will turn and start Buying to Cover, creating more of a shortage of sellers. Consequently, this will put more pressure on the buy side. There are always latecomers to a stock run, and they are usually small-lot buyers. As the stock moves up in price, more of the small-lot buyers will step in, pushing the price up even further. Most small-lot buyers typically use a “Buy at Market” Order, which is the worst kind to use to control the entry price. As the stock moves up further in price, the last of the Short Sellers will panic and Buy to Cover, causing the stock to gap up or jump even higher. This then triggers the large-lot buyers to start selling for profit. As profit-taking begins, the stock dips in price. This causes the odd-lot buyer, who is the last in the market participant cycle to buy, to rush into the stock and buy because they have been told to “Buy the Dip.” By now, the news media has been talking about this stock and its great run. Consequently, the odd-lot uninformed investor finds the dip irresistible and buys on pure emotion without any analysis of the stock. This causes the final gap up and exhaustion pattern. Now, while all of those odd-lot latecomers are buying, who is selling to balance the equation? Market Makers are Selling Short and the Smart Money, who were the first to enter, are selling to take profits. Suddenly, the large lots are now shifting to the downside, and what happens? The control switches to the sellers who are moving larger lots. Now, money is flowing out of the stock, yet the price may go up briefly before a downtrend develops. Large lots are usually wiser investors and traders who know more than the other investors and traders. So the giant Buy Side Institutions investing Mutual and Pension Funds, who have access to information often not yet available to Individual Investors and Retail Traders, are called the Smart Money. It can be assumed that the smaller the lot size, the less the investor or trader knows and understands about the market. As smaller lots move in, a shift of power occurs due to the large lots moving to the sell side, and thus money shifts to flowing out of the stock. As the stock collapses and reaches a price or equilibrium near a base or bottom, those smaller lots who held through the collapse reach an emotional point of extreme pain of loss and begin to sell in panic. In response, the Smart Money and Market Makers switch roles again, Buying to Cover their profitable shorts and buying to hold as the stock moves up again. Summary: Every time you take a position in a stock, there are also three other positions in that same stock. You need to be aware of each of these and make sure that you are with the right group. Most of the time, traders who are having problems with their trades are simply trading with the wrong group. It is important, then, to learn about today's stock market structure and what I call the "Cycle of Market Participants." When traders can trade with the flow of the Smart Money, they have a decided advantage.
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
New Technologies Can Push Stocks to New HighsNYSE:CAT easily moved above the resistance highs from March and out of its sideways trading range, making new highs. The white candle on lower volume was interesting: intraday showed pro traders in control toward the end of the day as retail traders and smaller funds started selling prematurely. A resting pattern would be a lower-risk entry to prepare for the breakout. Caterpillar, Inc. has new technologies coming to market. The company unveiled its new technologies for mining on Sept 24, 2024. It reports earnings on October 29th. If you are trading or holding this stock, check support levels but be patient.
NYSE:CAT
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
$IBM Support Levels HoldingNYSE:IBM did not have a great earnings report for the 1st Quarter 2024, but 2nd quarter improved. The stock has one of the better charts in the Dow 30 components. It has held up better than most of the Dow components, except for those stocks that are in buyback mode. It has been tapering off its buybacks for 2 quarters. So the gains holding above the support lows are not from buybacks. There are accumulation patterns and pro trader activity in the mix. One to watch for swing trading potential.
NYSE:IBM
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Buyback Patterns for Swing TradingNASDAQ:AMGN shows a buyback run followed by a sell day that was instigated by market makers as buyers quickly disappeared. Remember that corporate buybacks are done by bank floor traders to add stock to their inventory so they won't take profits at the peak of the run; those are other market participants, such as market makers. NYSE:KO is another example of a buyback run and how price moves back down after the professionals conclude their buybacks. The buybacks were announced in May this year so this stock has just started its share repurchase program.
NASDAQ:AMGN
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Swing Trading Setups: TWSTThis is a stock that went on my students' watchlists this week for potential swing trading. NASDAQ:TWST is coming out of a long-term down-trending correction and has completed the bottom. Accumulation ended and a HFT gap and run up followed on May 3rd. The stock retested the sideways trend highs which are now support for the current price. Pro traders are swing trading in these patterns. There are fewer wicks and tails and the stock has a very high Percentage of Shares Held by Institutions.
NASDAQ:TWST
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
NVDA Update: How Low Can She Go?NASDAQ:NVDA was over-speculated. It is a component of many ETFs based on all kinds of index funds, from semi-conductor ETFs to Big Blue chip companies, etc. NVDA was the big loss stock for the NASDAQ on Friday. The huge down day was due to many retail investors and smaller funds running for the door. This has nothing to do with its earnings report. It is a universal panic in the stock market. Pro traders bought the stock in the last few minutes of the trading day. Now the stock is close to being a buy on the dip candidate. The angle of descent is too steep to sustain but the price can collapse further as there is not a Dark Pool Buy Zone firmly established at this level. Revenues and earnings have been showing exponential growth but the next earnings report is a month away. Just keep in mind that the economy is booming. We had a nudge of higher inflation mostly due to oil prices but some due to corporate growth. Inflation = Growth.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
BA Buy Zone Triggers Short-term ProsNYSE:BA is definitely below its current fundamentals for the 1st quarter of 2024. This was the biggest gain of all the Dow 30 components yesterday. It was an obvious reversal point at a prior Buy Zone at October's lows. Yesterday was driven by pro traders with a run up at open rather than an HFT gap up at open. We can also see the pro trader nudge pattern in the candlesticks before yesterday's move up. It may consolidate before running up, but this support level is now established for the next move up.
NYSE:BALong
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Which Robotics Stocks Are You Watching?This stock's pattern is an intermediate-term trend correction to bottom formation that is near completion. It may head sideways for a bit, but when it does breakout of this consolidation, there is potential for swing style runs to develop. A Dark Pool buy zone triggered at the bottom's lows. And there are Pro Trader footprints in each run out of a new low. NYSE:ROK is in industrial automation, aka Robotics. There is a huge demand building for manufacturing via robotics in the US as many manufacturers are no longer reliant upon Chinese manufacturing, which has become more expensive in recent years. Robotics can easily displace human workers globally as it becomes more popular and used extensively. Hence, institutional holdings is quite high in this company. The So this stock may also be suitable for longer-term investment opportunity.
NYSE:ROK
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
EUR USD Idea Greetings, fellow traders, investors, and enthusiasts! We've been patiently awaiting a short opportunity on EUR/USD for a week, and now we've identified target levels. While we've seen success with bullish trades, we're anticipating a break and downward movement, just as we discussed a month ago regarding this controlled price. However, the current scenario has EUR/USD and the dollar out of correlation, which isn't our favorite situation. It's the Christmas season, and markets can exhibit natural behavior during this time. Yet, it can be frustrating to stand around, watching 4-hour candles without making significant gains. Patience, as always, is the key in this game, and sometimes, scalping becomes the order of the day. For those of you who've had successful bullish trades, congratulations! Enjoy the profits, especially as the festive season approaches. Christmas is just around the corner, and we're planning to double down on scalps as much as possible. But hey, we recognize our addiction to charts might not be for everyone. Don't be like us, indeed! Wishing you all a successful trading season and a joyful upcoming holiday. May your charts be clear, and your profits be plentiful! Until next time, trade wisely.
Short
by themarketknight
Looking Ahead to the 4th Quarter for $DISNYSE:DIS has been working on a bottom for a long time. The stock has moved up recently due to heavy buying of Dow components for the DIA and other ETFs which require Dow components. Many Families are making Disney Resorts a holiday location this year. The stock now faces stronger bottom completion resistance from the 2nd quarterly report, which sent the stock moving down further until this October. The volume is very low recently, which is partly due to the holiday but also warns of weakening buyer activity at this price level. However, there was Dark Pool accumulation in the base of the bottom, along with some Pro Trader activity evident in the candlestick and technical indicator patterns. This range now provides moderate to strong support.
NYSE:DIS
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
How to See Fundamental Improvement in Technicals, $VRNT ExampleStocks that are forming bottoms right now are completing faster due to the improvement of their fundamentals in the current quarter. For example, NASDAQ:VRNT is moving out of the extreme dump by HFTs and retail groups. This is a common pattern that indicates shifting sentiment in a bottom formation. The candlesticks stairstep upward as Pro Traders get in the mix of Dark Pools buying at bargain prices. The largest Institutional investors who use Dark Pools to accumulate huge positions over time are the first to buy in a long-term uptrend, at bargain prices. It can be a very early signal, but these are the savviest fundamentals-driven investors in the market, so it pays to learn their footprints in stock charts.
NASDAQ:VRNT
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Black Friday Buzz for AMZNThe Giant of e-commerce and AWS for small businesses, which now has AI integrated, is moving up in anticipation of a strong Black Friday for $NASDAQ:AMZN. The new CEO who took over form Jeff Bezos is doing a good job. As the CEO of the AWS division, he did an amazing job building that division of AMZN. Outstanding CEOs make a company great. CEOs are more important than most investors realize. Weekly Chart shows that AMZN is about 40 points from its all-time high, so plenty of opportunity for it to move up further from here. The Blue lines indicate levels where Dark Pool buy zones and Pro traders moved in most heavily. These are now strong support levels for the stock.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Positive Earnings Gaps Seldom Fill: NFLXTo follow up on my analysis of NFLX from Wednesday ... Despite the market moodiness and selling, NASDAQ:NFLX reported well above estimates. HFTs triggered a huge gap up on heavy pre-open order flow yesterday. Volume was also huge, so smaller funds' VWAPs triggered and retail traders chased the stock while Pro Traders and HFTs made some big profits. Gaps up on positive earnings seldom fill completely. There is a strong support level at $350 which the gap up now confirms.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader