PSLV
BEAR TRAP - SILVER IS HEADING TO $41 AND QUICKLY $SLV $PSLV The big banks will not be able to hold the floodgates much longer. They will fold and cover their shorts. At least one of them will go bust. They will be investigated for racketeering, price-fixing, and corruption by the DOJ, SEC, FCA. Silver is going to $41 nobody can stop it. It is already for some of us for physical. The price of physical including any premiums gives a better indication of the true price of silver. Silver is still holding the 50 DMA. Even if that is lost I can't see the 200 being as people will be encouraged to buy even more. Those stimi checks are coming soon! Peace.
Silver, bullish ascending triangleBullish ascending triangle forming on silver on the weekly chart. The price target is $48.55.
Chart of premium/discount of PSLV, and volume ratioThe top of this chart is the ratio of PSLV price to XAGUSD (Silver spot price). PSLV holds 0.361 Ozs of silver per share/unit.
Lines are drawn for P/NAV=1, and at 1 and 2% premium levels.
Since PSLV is a closed end fund, it may trade at a premium.
However, PSLV has a shelf offer allowing them to add shares/silver, which they have been doing.
By viewing the data in this form, you can guess at when they are adding shares (price drops due to the new supply)
If adding PSLV, chart can be used to find good times to buy (when shares are being added), and avoid paying high premiums.
The bottom of this chart is the ratio of PSLV shares traded to SLV shares traded, normalized by the ounces per share for each fund. I.e. it is the ratio of silver traded for each fund.
High volumes for PSLV correlated with a premium decrease on the top chart generally indicate shares/silver are being added
Growing volume indicates a growing market preference for PSLV over SLV
Chart is an EMA - the periods of the EMA can be changed to provide more or less smoothing
EMA is used rather than an MA to reduce lag
PSLV vs SLV Volume ratio chartThis chart shows the recent trend of increasing interest in the silver ETF PSLV (managed by Sprott Inc) vs. SLV (managed by Blackrock with JPMorgan as the custodian).
Volume ratio is normalized by ounces per share, so it is the ratio of silver traded for each ETF
PSLV is the preferred fund for the Reddit group wallstreetsilver and most people in #silversqueeze
fintwit/reddit has recently exploded with a lot of mistrust of JPM/SLV
Chart is a good indicator of the strength of the #silversqueeze and /r/wallstreetsilver movement
Look for Silver to clear $30 in March and explodeCurrently, Silver is approaching a power pivot point. This is where the price hits the next wave check point and the potential for a significant move higher or lower is likely. Indicators are all green and the 2 week chart is a fantastic timeline for gauging long term trend. Monthly is similar.
There's a lot of long term cycles coming to a junction suggesting Silver is on the verge of explosive growth higher.
Next point is end of September 2021.
Indicators show full steam ahead.
Silver's also all over social media. Interesting timing... ;)
#WallStreetSilver, a new reddit sub that's less than three weeks old has grown to over 30k members. Other silver related subs have seem similar growth additions to their member base.
How to play
Buy psychical if you can. Find the best prices online at www.findbullionprices.com
Ticker - PSLV - This is a closed end trust backed
Target $41 and beyond. Probably way beyond.
Will 2021 be the year silver goes triple digit? I think we're about to find out :)
Backing Up The TruckIt seems silver is heating up. Better shine up your bullion and get ready for some crypto-like swings. From a macro perspective it looks very similar to the bullish cupping pattern on many other charts. Starting with the Fibonacci extensions measured out from the past major bull run it looks like once again, price clings to the levels like a magnet.
During the 2003-2011 bull market the most notable swings range from 65 to over 100%. The pullbacks sometimes just as violent. The 50 week EMA looks like it was a relatively solid support level and will likely remain so in the future.
Silver has already made it's first 75% move from off the 50 week EMA and has pulled back to the 0.236 fib. It looks like that could be the floor for now. Another 75ish% move would put it up between the 0.5 and 0.618 level around $40.
It will likely take some time to get there with a lot of chop. There is still a risk of the DXY having a technical relief rally especially if new starts rolling out of 'stimulus' disappointments. This is how I've been playing it considering these risks...
After it broke $20 - accumulating bits and pieces on dips, building a core long term position. Trimming and booking some profits into the larger swings.
Fib targets to watch for now:
0.382 --- 31.50
0.5 --- 37.45
0.618 --- 43ish
Trading is risky, don't do it.
Long (6% of portfolio)
Silver bullion and coins
SLV, PSLV, CEF
PSLV - Silver Longterm - Dip then Bull Run Q3 and Q4 2021
- Probably corresponding to the Caronavirus spending watering down the dollar. BTC should also run during this period.
$SLV $PSLV $GME 2: Infinity Squeeze- Gamma squeeze of silver and silver futures is possible.
- Key is that the supply of underlying is only a fraction of the future contracts being traded.
- If enough contracts are physically settled, there will not be enough underlying, and this will squeeze the price.
- In essence, the silver market will be cornered.
- Up against JPM & co. Tough competition.
I like the stock
PT: 75
SL: None
“We choose to go to the moon, not because it is easy, but because it is hard." -JFK
The wedge is ending SilverWe are approaching the crossroads of three trendlines, each of them having potentional impact on the price action of Silver. The price has bounced down from the upper blue trendline every time but once when it continued to test the resistance above it, but still retracing nicely below the trendline during the same day. The lower blue trendline has acted as support since late November. Together the blue trendlines form a rising wedge.
The brown trendline held the price above it all the way from early May until 28 October when the price finally broke below it. Since then the brown trendline has acted as resistance.
There is a high probability that the rising wedge breaks downwards. If however, the rising wedge of the blue trendlines breaks upwards, there is a potential new rising wedge formed with the brown trendline as upper boundary. In any case I am hoping that the price will break down to offer one more buying opportunity between 23.7 and 24.8.
Trade safe and take care.
Cheers Whoop
Goldman Signals Gold Rally AheadExchange Traded Funds, or “ETFs”, in all asset classes have soared in popularity over the years due to their liquidity, convenience, and low cost. They’re simple to trade, and they provide a quick and easy way to create a portfolio compared with having to buy each of the individual underlying assets. With respect to Gold and Silver , GLD and SLV provide an easy and cost-effective way to gain exposure to precious metals. And there’s no need to store anything, which means no vault fees and no risk of theft from your home.
As in Ireland, you never get something for nothing, and so it is with ETFs for precious metals. Gold and Silver ETFs, another form of so-called paper gold , are rarely 100% backed by the physical metal. GLD , for example—the biggest, most popular gold ETF—is an investment fund that holds physical gold to back its shares. In other words, it’s a stock, not the actual physical metal. The share price of the stock tracks the price of gold and it trades like a stock, but this stock does not give the vast majority who hold it access to the underlying metal. You can’t demand delivery of underlying Gold unless you own at least 100,000 shares of GLD , which equates to $17.4 million as of today. Furthermore, the GLD ETF reserves the right to settle your delivery request in cash. Simply put, you need to have a massive amount of GLD shares to demand delivery, and even if you do, the ETF provider does not have to provide you with the physical metal—they can hand you cash instead. Given that many investors buy precious metals as a hedge against the devaluation of fiat currencies (i.e., inflation ), the last thing they will want if global currencies collapse and Gold and Silver soar in price is more fiat.
If that were not enough to cause you concern, consider the fact that the amount of physical metal held in the depositories of the custodian for the ETF is typically a fraction of the volume of claims against it. Said differently, one GLD share represents 1/10 oz. of Gold . For every 1000 shares or 100 oz. of Gold , there may be just a single ounce to cover each of the 1000 claims against it should all those who can demand delivery do so at the same time. GLD and other such ETFs are highly leveraged, which means that there won’t be anywhere near enough Gold to settle all of the demands against it should that time come. If and when currencies collapse and there’s a race for physical Gold and Silver , if you own GLD or SLV , you have a next to zero chance of getting it when you need it most. It is virtually guaranteed that your shares will be settled with currencies, the very thing you wanted to avoid by buying what you thought was Gold and Silver .
Finally, this all assumes that the provider of the ETF and its custodian remain in business. If they go bankrupt and default on the ETF , then you are likely left with nothing. This is the counterparty risk you face in holding ETFs, a risk that physical Gold and Silver protect you from.
This is why I have recommended for years that if you plan to invest in Gold and Silver for the long-term, buy the physical metals. The only reason I use ETFs such as GLD and SLV is for short-term trading or hedging purposes only.
Fast forward to this week’s headline:
GOLDMAN BUYS PERTH MINT’S GOLD ETF
Goldman Sachs finalized its takeover of the Perth Mint’s $500m New York-listed gold ETF . This represents Goldman Sachs' first commodity-backed ETF . It will be renamed the Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF , and the ticker will remain unchanged: AAAU US – Note the use of the word “Physical”. The product fees will also remain unchanged at 0.18%. But here is the big change:
The original custodian to the ETF , the Perth Mint, allowed shareholders of the ETF to readily exchange their shares for delivery of physical gold in the form of bullion bars and coins issued by the mint, and that unique feature was guaranteed by the government of the State of Western Australia. In other words, the ETF was 100% backed by physical Gold . No more.
Can you guess who is the new custodian for Goldman’s ETF? The London branch of JP Morgan.
So what was once a government guaranteed 100% physical gold-backed Gold ETF is now just another highly leveraged paper Gold ETF . “Physical”? Not so much.
The big questions are: Why and why now? The following comments are just a reflection of my opinion only, so take them for what you will. I will admit that I am extremely cynical when it comes to anything involving Goldman and JP Morgan, two of the biggest players in the precious metals space.
Why?
Banks don’t do anything that doesn’t involve a profit motive, but with fees remaining at a paltry 0.18%, this acquisition is not going to boost Goldman’s bottom line. In fact, it will marginally reduce their profit margins.
Why Now?
Gold has fallen over 15% from its peak of 2089 in August. It’s oversold and sentiment is bearish . It appears that Biden is president-elect and new stimulus is pending. The dollar is in freefall. Inflation expectations are rising as the economy continues to melt down. Stagflation anyone? Suffice to say that the conditions are favorable for a sharp rise in Gold prices.
Perhaps the motive for Goldman to take over and transform a physical-backed ETF into another paper-Gold ETF is because the Perth Mint and the world is running out of available physical Gold , and the banks in particular don’t want this to come to light given the obvious effect on Gold prices. We’re already seeing scarcity and premiums rise again, just as in March.
Perhaps it is to provide yet another vehicle for investors to bet on the coming explosion in Gold prices that doesn’t require settlement in the physical metal but can be reimbursed in increasingly worthless currency. Hence the use of the misnomer “Physical”. People think they are buying a vehicle that gives them access to underlying physical metal on a 1-for-1 basis, just like the original Perth Mint backed ETF , but it’s quite the opposite.
Perhaps it’s both. This would make sense if Gold is set to rise.
Put a different way, why would Goldman purchase such an ETF if the Gold price was going down? To earn a paltry 0.18% on declining demand? I don’t think so.
Conclusions
ETFs are not a replacement for physical precious metals unless it is for trading purposes only. The same goes for the other paper substitutes: Futures . The only ETFs I would recommend anyone buy in place of the physical metal are those that are 100% backed, such as PHYS and PSLV.
The Goldman transaction signals a rising Gold price synonymous with a growing scarcity of the metal. Of course, Silver and the miners will likely follow suit.
It is only a manner of time now. Sooner rather than later, imho.
Silver At 11-year LowThis precious metal is getting decimated after Chinese factory production(electronics) collapses in the month of February, down -12% in this trading session. This is going to be the deal of the century once a bottom is found as gold and silver are the only money to stand the test of time with over 5,000 years of recorded use as money, especially in a world where every central banks is currently hell-bent on devaluing their currencies. Silver took a dive at the beginning of the 2008 financial crisis, and then eventually exploded to new highs afterward. Once you understand the difference between money vs currency, you'll understand why gold and silver are important in the financial world.
We're likely looking at sub-$10 silver/oz before the bleeding stops. Gonna be a bogo deal compared to prices last week.
Silver Heading to Descending Triangle Nirvana $15 TargetSilver Heading to Descending Triangle Nirvana $15 Target
Bullish Falling Wedge on SilverWait for wedge to break before buying or feel free to accumulate at this time. Paper price to ~$25 on SLV
