PSYCH HACK #0004 - understanding luck, chance and riskIn this screencast, I review my ideas on luck, chance and risk.
I do not depend on luck, hope or targets in my trading. This has appeared rather strange to some I've been in contact with recently.
I say that sensible trading for consistent profitability cannot depend on luck. Yes - it involves taking carefully risk-assessed chances and controlling loss.
I assert that luck is not part of my 'equation'.
Psychological
Education post 15/100 – How to trade Psychological Price Levels?What are Psychological levels?
Psychological levels are price levels which tend to draw big market attention and typically witness a reaction by price when tested. These levels are the main round numbers (whole numbers), referred to as “Double Zeros such as .9800, .990.
Plotting support and resistance levels is often a challenging and subjective task. It is also commonly one of the first areas of price action new traders attempt to tackle.
Support and resistance can be established in numerous ways, such as: trendlines, moving averages, pivot point levels, Fibonacci levels, key high/low points etc. A common complaint with a lot of these methods though is subjectivity.
This is why we believe psychological levels are appealing, as the numbers are effectively embedded within market structure and are entirely objective, as you’ll see going forward.
So...What are Psychological levels?
Say that you’re the proud owner of new car, and a buddy down the pub asks how much it cost. Assuming it set you back $10,999, it’s unlikely that you would tell him that exact figure. Instead, to keep things simple, you’d probably round the number to the nearest thousand i.e. $11,000. And this is exactly what happens in the financial markets! It is far more likely that a trader will select 1.2500 over 1.2493, for example.
Why do they work and how to trade them?
Trading support and resistance can be a fantastic way to approach the market and for many new traders this is one of the first areas of technical analysis that they come to properly understand. There are a great many varieties of support and resistance in the market that traders can look to build strategies around such as: key highs/lows, trend lines, Fibonacci levels, moving averages, pivots, Bollinger bands and more. However, there are also levels that are already embedded within the market that can act as powerful support and resistance and traders don’t need any tools or to perform any complicated analysis to find them. These levels are called “Psychological levels”
More on our website, link on Profile.
EURCAD ShortRiding the bearish breakout on my fib lines by setting up a short stop order for this pair with TP @1.50 (psychological support) and SL @1.515 (few pips below the 0 fib line), but must monitor closely because of recent bearish sentiment on oil and CAD.
forextv.com
Daily:
Weekly:
Confidence: B (must close before the CAD trade balance and US NFP news tomorrow).
EURCHF ShortSame reasoning as EURCAD trade (capture possible drop in price to 1.50 psychological support by end of trading week). Setting up short stop order with TP @1.50 and SL @1.5604. Must monitor this closely as well esp since higher risk of getting whipsawed for this pair (1.55 is psychological resistant which makes the price "sticky" to it).
Daily:
Weekly:
Confidence: C (esp overall sentiment on CHF is still bearish and EUR's sentiment is affected by USD; must also close this pair before US NFP news tomorrow)
BTC - Price Analysis - 4HR TFAfter the influx of bullish volume that flowed into BTC ~28 hrs ago the price has begun to cool off and a falling wedge is forming on the charts.
The current candle shows the price ran up to 6379.9 before heavy selling pressure was met.
In my opinion because the support has become more solidified in the context of Fibonacci levels, Kijun San, Tenkan San, Kumo, as well as Psychological Support it seems very likely we will see a bounce.
All of the strengthening support in combination with the bullish reversal pattern seen forming on the charts leads me to believe that bounce will take place between 6160 - 6273.
This action is further confirmed by the current positions on the Stochastic RSI, and the TRIX.
If the indicators continue to move downward and blow off some steam from that run then the price would follow down the falling wedge.
It should also be noted that the kumo has begun to thin considerably and a twist in the kumo would confirm a reversal and uptrend in price should then begin.
In the scenario there is a bounce at 6100, I would place my price targets between 6496 - 6597.
BACK TO 1.1300 FOR EURUSDI will not tackle this market quantitatively.
Even though there were good data supporting the euro and eurozone stability.
But the markets want to push euro further downwards.
I've been bullish on euro on the initial 1.1300 break out when all retail was short.
Now I see more retail guys coming in strong buying the eurusd pair.
The bears know this and are still here.
Trade safe, trade well.
Which psychological levels matter, and which are notAddition to the last idea .
Strong resistance levels: $10, $1 000, $100 000 - shows cycles boundaries. Hard to achieve and long validation time.
Weak resistance levels: $1, $100, $10 000 - shows middle stage of the trend. Easy to go through, fast validation.
CHF/JPY: Major Support Level Bullish OpportunityLooks like this pair could come down and test a Major Support Level @112.500 (last touched June 14 2017). Not only is this a Major Support Level but it is also a Psychological Level . We also have some Confluence with the 1.414 Extension as well.
R:R 1.65 and 2.57
BTCUSDT - Psychological Stages of a Bubble Market Psychological Stages of a Bubble Market
1. Stealth Phase
2. Awareness Phase
3. Mania Phase
4. Blow off Phase
----------------------------------
Types of Trends
1.
Up Trend => Rectangle => Down Trend
2.
Up Trend => Down Trend
POLONIEX:BTCUSDT BITSTAMP:BTCUSD KORBIT:BTCKRW
EURUSD strong by signal based on GAP and psychological levelI can see here strong rejection after attempt to reach 1.0500 level. Monthly candles showing nice pattern for the third time( Bullish engulfing) and closed above support mentioned above.
I see also two important formations :
1. GAP from daily chart(different broker) is respected almost perfectly with pin candle
2. Shadow of the candle reached Fibonacci level 38.2%
the safe target for me is 1.0800 area, when probably price reach 200 EMA on daily chart.
I would suspect that next wave will reach 1.1000 area in long term.
USDCHF short after weekly candle close below psych lev. 1.00000Daily chart is showing big bearish candle after pin candle closed below psychological level. There are two support areas on the chart. These are based on the GAP between daily candles on chart provided by my broker my broker. I placed the stop loss just above the daily bearish candle. I calculated TP based on Fibonacci ratios. I'm also bullish for EURUSD pair which is in negative correlation with USDCHF. I think that if I'm correct any attempt to go beyond 1.000 will be stopped by 200 MMA on 4h chart.
Dogecoin: A perfect experiment on human greedDogecoin has no purpose other than being pumped and dumped. Thus it is a truly natural market, where everyone is driven not by any rational arguments but only by a strong wish to make money. For a savvy speculator it is of no difficulty; though new players, driven by mostly by newslines and Twitter trends (which always appear too late), do consistently lose money there and get either really angry, initiating panic sells or hopeful, holding their losing positions, but then become even angrier as they sell them lower than the initial price decline. Emotions being the only driving force for price, they appear in their purest form and with a consistent cyclical pattern, which can be seen in price patterns.
On the chart I've highlighted bearish periods of DOGEBTC and a major resistance level. I guess it is not hard to deduce that the next DOGE pump will happen in 2-3 weeks :D
NZDUSD AnalysisAfter the RBNZ decided to leave rates on hold at 2.25% there has been a surge in kiwi strength, taking NZDUSD from 0.702 up towards the Weekly 50 MA at around 0.71500 (red line - psychological level). Where price is currently stalling and there is most likely some profit taking occurring as well, furthermore there is a Weekly resistance area just above the current 0.71480 highs and within this resistance area there is also the upper trendline of the ascending channel that could also prove to be a big hurdle for the bulls going forward.
Looking at the downside and the most appropriate levels to keep an eye on for potential longs would be the 38.2% and 78.6% Fibonacci levels which both coincide with Daily support areas.