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Psychology

Skulls, Bones And Candlesticks - The Margin CallIf you are a beginner in the wonderful world of charts, patterns and indicators, this post is for you... Almost all traders have on day faced an account crash and anyone knows that it is a damn bad moment to go through. My goal here is to identify what is the main reason leading to this morbid situation that make us crash our accounts...and provide some tips to avoid being in panic when the margin call happens. The leverage and margin level. The trading world is seen as an eldorado for most of people, especially because it seems so easy to make much money very quickly. It is also a path to financial independency which is a dream for many people. Working from home or simply working with only a smartphone and make money like that. It seems so nice. Let's be clear, If the leverage did not exist we would not be here on Tradingview. If trading knows as much succes, it is also because we can invest much more than we have in fact. With $1,000, we are able to invest up to $500,000 in the market... from our smartphone... Simply insane. Difficult to stay cold being aware of that. Who has never been in margin call here? This situation should never happen. If so, then your trading behavior is at risk and you will crash your account sooner or later. My solution: Always respect the 10% rule. Your overall margin including all opened position should never exceed 10% of your account. If your capital is $1,000 then your max margin would be $100. Even there it is only for agressive traders. Why the 10% rule can help you to succeed? In fact, you can use it as psychological barrier. As an example, you can face the case where you have a position in loss. I identify 3 main situations: A) You position is in an important loss. You are tempted to average down the entry price of the position by adding a new one on the same pair. Clearly the badest behavior. With the max margin at 10% you cannot add multiple positions without breaking the rule. It is your alert. B) You can also let the position run in loss without doing anything. Your stop loss? Psychologically, you are not able to handle such a loss so you pray for the market to reverse. It is possible depending of the fundamentals and technical configuration, if a huge support is broken, better worth closing the position. Letting the position run is risky but clearly much more acceptable than the A situation. C) Your position is in loss but you use a stop loss. The stop is hit but you accept this loss and look for a better opportunity to enter in the market again. Ideally on a support or a resistance. In definitive, being in margin call should warn you that your trading behavior is dangerous in a medium to long run. The probability for you to crash your acccount sooner or later is damn high.
Education
by Traderscope
1
Today's Lesson (#4) : Adjusting the leverage to volatilityIn this educational content video I had to cover one the biggest noob trader mistake, trading with too much leverage. That's basically what flushes out almost 80% of the noobs. Getting the margin call, putting more money into trading than you initially expexted. All of this is well known as gambling problems. And the recent flow of beginners who went to the markets with hopes of easy gains, most are now feeling the painful experiment of what the market is doing to fools. So I hope you'll learn something important today with that lesson. Cause if you don't, then you'll probably have to learn it the hard ways later...
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by PRO_Indicators
13
Ethereum analysis - 4 hour chart.Overall the price has been in an ascending channel with well defined psychological support and resistance as seen by our blue trendlines. This falls in line perfectly between roughly the 0.786 and 1 fib levels. Ichimoku - The clouds senkou lines have been rising. This tells us the average price equilibrium is rising. Strong supports on these levels as they align with fib .7 and 1. Tenkan and Kijun sen are beginning to range. Downward price action is losing momentum. MACD - oversold and we should see a test one the resistance line and look for a bullish cross RVI - should test support at 36.1 before a bounce Stochastic RSI - Currently testing resistance. K line bearish moving down. ADX - Trend has been losing steam DIs - bearish divergence on the DIs they should expand before testing resistance and we should look to see a bullish cross
by SpektreSignal
Bubble chart 'Return to normal' phase right now? Look at shape and volume I now agree (albeit a bit late) Loops and Rivers&Mountains. Bubble chart is a meme and so is log chart, but 2 memes make a right techcrunch.com People are psychologically anchored to high BTC values from the 20k run. BTC could easily go back and test where it came from (ie. low 4-digits to 3-digits). Sentiment seems to match the meme bubble chart. Many were and still are in denial in the past months that BTC will go to those so-called 'extreme' lows ("everyone will just buy at 5k/3k/1k", "I wish it goes that low, but it will never happen", "buy now for new bull season" etc.). Many are now calling for 20k, 30k, etc. again thinking this is the start of the new bull cycle. The bull run has been going on non-stop for years now. If it has truly ended for now (which I think it has), we are heading to 'goblin town,' as an acoustic shorter called Turnip once said.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Pobloto
TRUST the whales, LOVE the whales, BE th.. no.Go with the whales. I want to start an open discussion on the psychological side that whales love to manipulate so nicely. (this goes for little whales on alts as well) We all know that whales eat tiny fish that are really tasty. And so if you don't want to be eaten do not stand in their way. It's as simple as that. But the natural question that occurs in one's minds is, How do I know when a whale wants to eat (me)? Bitcoin is at its crucial/crux point for the last few weeks and one could argue that the crux is always the present moment but let us leave that for another discussion maybe. We all seen the recent "anomaly" in crypto that occurred on 2018-04-12 where whales killed many standing fish and furthermore attracted a lot more from alts so that they can get in at lower prices. It was an amazing move and an isolated case concerning Bitcoin and ALTS/BTC pairs (the ALTS/USD prices went up along with BTC/USD). There was to be expected a big move from the whales after such a long stagnant period. The point that I am trying to get across is think like a whale: "If the market is going for some time on a more or less straight line how can I f*** up the market and make nice profit? OOo look FISH (mmmmm) :) that are still in FUD and FoMO and don't really know where to go... let's kill some." See, in this case, you just had to wait them make the first move and buy some cheap alts (ALTS/BTC pairs or ALTS/USD pairs as well) and probably swing trade them. Don't try to resist them and understand that they always want to squeeze the most out of the market and in the current state of the market even more so. That is one of the reasons why is still think we will get to see a lower BTC bottom. I won't get into prices on this educational idea, for that you can check/follow:
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by qqqpoilove
Looking to confirm market psyhocology reversal from BEAR to BULL Markets are dominated by psychology, and this can easily be seen in price action when there are either good news or bad news for an asset. The majority might not really care about the news itself, but they will try to predict other people caring, and make their move on this. Some other people will then see a small move in the direction of the news and FOMO into that movement believing the news impact (which, in essence, is not wrong). Markets always move in packs of bulls or bears, with a few bulls/bears going the opposite direction trying to time the reversal for major profits. So, how does one "time" the reversal? Usually, buying into weakness and selling into strength is the best way to do so, but you might end up getting trapped as the market continues moving in the direction opposite of your move. As said before, the market is dominated by psychology, so the only way to anticipate a strong move is to measure the hype and the price numbers, while also keeping an eye on volume to determine if the current trend is confirmed by the majority or not. A very good example of reversal was when Bitcoin touched $20,000.00. It was in an unprecendeted FOMO hype-wave, and had all the characteristics of a speculative bubble run. From 1k to 5k it took almost 8 months. From 9k to 20k it took barely 2 months, with a jump from 9k to 12k occurring almost in the same day because the hype was so strong. You could read up anywhere and people would be talking about Bitcoin as if it was a godsent asset, unbeatable, like it would never drop and reach millions on that very same rally. That was the overall sentiment. And then the price reached 15k, then 17k, then it touched 20k. 20k is a "psychological attractive number" to make moves on. As the market was going up, it was a good place to make a move on the opposite direction, meaning selling/taking profits. This caused the hype to start losing strength, and late-buyers started to see profits slow down/be neutral/be negative. Smart money started to get out, and a small selloff ensued. The price crashed to about 16k. "Buy the Dip" mentality ensued, and price jumped back to 18k, which was the first bull trap on the bubble popping. Another selloff ensued, since price didn't seem to be stable. The late buyers started to worry and started to get out, ensuing another sell off. And then the bubble popped. Crashing all the way to 9k, a huge "buy the dip" mentality took place, and price went back to ~13k, which was another bulltrap on the bubble popping. And then price kept slowly crashing, all the way to 6k. A few other bulltraps ensued, price managed to jump back to 9k, but didn't hold as people were still trying to get out of a bubble popping asset. Fear took place, and price stablized for days in the 6-7.5k range. A short squeeze took place, and price jumped from 6.8 all the way to 8.2 in less than five minutes. This started a rally and price is currently stable at ~8.3k, being volatile from 7.8k to 8.5k. I'm currently trying to determine if is this the start of a bullmarket, or is it yet another bulltrap. So how do I do this: Overall sentiment is the most important aspect. Validations will only confirm a change in trend. The majority of people seem to be agreeing in a trend reversal right now. Buy markets percentage are at end of December/start of January levels (meaning 90% of market orders are buy orders). This is just a few weeks after a short squeeze took place, where the majority of margin orders were betting on the asset to drop in price, and a small move in the opposite direction caused stop-losses triggering and completing buy orders, starting an "automated" rally. This rally could have been the very start of the long awaited market reversal. As of writing, this is nothing more than a bulltrap on a lower-high.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by bgrandimbtc
1
The big issue with technical analysis. In this video I give a few minutes of preview before discussing what I see on this weekly time frame. Bear with me as you'll see where I'm heading. In the second half of the video I show how I estimate the big probability from the weekly time frame. I'm not interested in being right in this. That's not what I want to get across. Whilst technical analysis is a useful 'tool', I assert that there is a bigger issue of individual psychology in the background that is hardly ever spoken about. Loads of new traders especially, will spend a disproportionate amount of time on indicators and fail. They're missing where the big issues are, and it's nothing to do with charts or technical analysis. So, I'm saying that all new traders really need to dig deeper. Yes - learn about technical indicators, but focus on the unseen i.e. biases, emotions, justifications, coping with loss etc. I'd be delighted if other traders out there can share their experiences (good or bad ones). Come on be brave!
Education
by Captain_Walker
2
The dangers in listening to the newsI'm sharing a chart to give my sentiments about listening to the news. New traders especially tend to listen to the news and website opinions about where markets are heading. I show a bit on how I approached a particular situation on the US30. A lot of news is late and people who create news items or blogs have their own biases, based on the information they have. The news can be dangerous to trading as it can cause a trader to become apprehensive, doubtful and stay out of trade setups that may be quite sound for entry. News can be depressing and cause a trader anxiety. Some very important earthshaking news may be useful e.g. some major monetary policy change in Europe or America. But on the whole, listening to or reading news is fraught with problems. I've found that I make better decisions when I approach the markets with a kind of fearlessness described by Mark Douglas . The fearless state of mind is not 'recklessness'. It is about calmly making decisions and accepting risks in a reasonable way, based on a tested strategy. None of the above or the video is advice to traders.
FX:US30Education
by Captain_Walker
Self-discipline - what's that?Whilst I am on a roll, I'm pushing out loads of questions and thoughts that have occupied me for the last two years. All this is well ' Beyond Technical Analysis '! In too many trading/training videos out there, I've heard the words 'discipline' and 'self-discipline'. These are so commonly used words that many take their meaning for granted, or as something very elementary. I know - because I was one of those people who thought I knew what the words meant. However, there is also a thing called self-deception which works against self-discipline. Self-deception at its heart, is the ability of the mind to justify anything! Quite simply - it's dangerous. The Collins Dictionary defines self-discipline as, " controlling of oneself or one's desires, actions, habits ... .. the act of disciplining or power to discipline one's own feelings, desires... with the intention of improving oneself. " It's easier now to see how this connects to trading environments. A sound trader needs a lot of personal self-control over actions, habits, feelings and desires. I add 'thinking processes'. Certainly there must be a routine that improves one abilities, as the markets are not static. Their behaviour changes so one needs to improve to match those changes. The obvious question for many (especially new traders) is, " How do I become more disciplined? " I'm afraid there is no magic formula that I can prescribe. I can only share a few personal experiences that drove me to become more disciplined. It's like a weird sandwich: A firm and unshakeable desire to make myself consistently profitable. Pain i.e. painful mistakes. Non-acceptance that if others could do it, I couldn't. Pain drives people - let's not debate that. By pain I include from the worse kinds of suffering to the more subtle kinds. One can include things like frustration, anger and disappointment. Pain stood like a distasteful filling between the two sides of my sandwich. I just couldn't ignore it. If I wanted to make this thing right I had to fix the pain; all sources of it. I was/am my own pain. My enemies arise from within me to cause me pain. My mind plays tricks on me in trading environments. To deal with the sources of pain I had to deal with my own mind, else just give up. I'm no quitter! So whilst I do not claim near-perfect discipline now, I have been addressing the trickery of my own mind - those inner enemies - that thwart my thinking processes. After all, if I don't the whole sandwich (three bullet points above) become nothing - and I'd have to join the 90-odd percent of people who give up on trading in the first couple years. Am I saying that pain is a necessary ingredient for everybody to reach a greater self-disciplined state? Well yes I am! In every walk of life people have to suffer some sort of discomfort in achieving their goals. If you wanted to become a top-rated lawyer, you would have to suffer the 'pain' of years of study, and the trauma of being beaten in court rooms. If you want to get to the North Pole on foot, that involves pain and personal sacrifice. But nobody gets to the North Pole alive, with poor discipline. I shan't go on to mention other areas where people suffer extreme discomfort in order to achieve their goals. If there are take away points to consider, traders should to find out what they are about and anchor themselves on what they want and what they won't have. Then, systematically whittle away at all obstacles by robust self-refection. It takes time - and bargain for pain! Do the time - take the pain. Don't blow up a live account.
Education
by Captain_Walker
Courses, horses - or the mind?If you’re reading this looking just for the best course to attend, you may be disappointed. I go deeper than the simple issue of 'which courses' or 'what course is best'. The sharing of my personal experience may be of value to new traders but also for more seasoned traders. INTRODUCTION I’m sharing a summary of my experiences over the last 4 years, so that others can see something more about ‘courses’ – and what courses can never give you. I am nobody known or big in the trading world. I do not offer advice in this or any other post. I do not train anybody. I do not seek anybody's money for any service. I do not require recognition. Take all of what’s written here as 'what I've learned' and cautiously apply the parts of it that you find of any value. Where I use words like ‘you’ and ‘yours’, this is my self-talk as if I’m advising myself all over again. I do this all the time. You're not mad if you're doing self-talk. It is an important thing to do. I started off with binary options and lost a fair amount of money. I watched numerous videos on YouTube about how to trade these, with numerous so-called successful strategies. In my searches I came across Spreadbetting, and did the same. More money lost. I then signed up with various trainers and spent more money there. More losses. I'm to blame I was led to understand because I didn't follow the rules. That's true to some extent - but something fundamental was missing. Why could I not follow the rules of some strategy invented by others? It's about why this post is in the Trading Psychology section of Tradingview. I followed various gurus on websites, paid more money and still no success. Most of these gurus had state of the art audio-visual equipment and studios. They usually appeared with large microphones, conspicuous and 'in the face'. Is that really necessary? Some will say it’s all about better sound quality. Then I got into ‘trading diaries’ and other things people out there said I should do. Still major problems. So, what was missing? To put it in a nutshell the problem was grappling with my personal psychology . This is about the way I work - how my mind functions in relation to risk, which would be different to everybody else. Psychologists may be able to tell you a bit about how minds in general work. They cannot tell you exactly how ‘your mind’ works. GURUS? Most of the gurus I came across would mention psychology several times but never get to the heart of it. Naturally they're not psychotherapists, so they can't tell me how to sort myself out. Most trainers focused on 'discipline' which is fine, but they couldn't tell me how to become disciplined. What? - am I just supposed to pull myself together and follow a script? Some would say 'yes'. But this is not how the human being operates. If everybody could just pull themselves together and follow a trading plan and a set of rules, then everybody would be rich. Come on - we all know that's silly. ... truncated . This post became so long, that it cannot fit on Tradingview. It is accessible here where I go on to explore: GURUS? RECOGNITION METHODOLOGY AND STRATEGY MIND AND PSYCHOLOGY PATTERN REWRITING IF I COULD TURN BACK TIME I do apologise, and hope Tradingview allows this post to remain.
Education
by Captain_Walker
Let D4 Try Again: Psychology Of A Market Cycle!Hey Friends This is a re-reupload. I was not allowed to write swear words. I hope you will give IT A BIG LIKE, and support this chart again due to its educational purpose! Thank you, my friends This is an educational chart about the Psychology of a market cycle. Every market is determined by people's feelings. In this chart I have illustrated how people tend to feel through a market cycle. D4 has used BTCUSD as an example but it applies to every market. Enjoy! D4 loves you <3 Please give a BIG like - It really means a lot to me <3
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by D4rkEnergY
20
Next quick BTC / EUR "analysis"I don't really follow all technical analysis methos. How I do my predictions is based mostly on psychology. Patterns that look like they would repeat - but go the other way around just to form nice traps. And such. I do my chart analysis based on how I feel what could be right and so far I have been correct quite a few times. Not always being like 1min chart correct, but I'm okay with it. Enjoy my next prediction and take care of your money! If I am correct here, the following hours could get very very hard to do highly profitable trades with. I only see small buy & sell space to trade with in this longer drop scenario. Oh and by the way: My bear avatar doesn't mean I am always bearish. I'm bear / bull whatever the direction the charts go. Feel free to paste in your chart predictions in the comments! PS: Why is there no "psychology" category in the dropdown menu
by pewpewprofit
EURUSD still BEARISH although option markets are record long EURUpdate on my SECULAR EUROUSD Short. After having clearly failed to break the secular downtrend channel at 1.2500 I continue to stress that EURUSD is overbought, both technically and by the record number of long option contracts. Please do not get caught long EURO and continue to sell on bounces. I trade it daily and been trading it for ages, obviously I rely on technical indicators as per my previous comment. But market psychology and behavior is as much important. We have a situation where nearly everyone is on the same side, long euro, and since hitting 1.2500 every time the chart highlights a buy signal the EURUSD fails to reach its short term target, then price suddenly reverse: we have a series of constant false breaks towards the upside...This is a clear sign everyone is trying to get out of longs (while many still hold their position....so capitulation still ahead). Lets now talk about levels. 1.2200 nest support and target. But where I will first close my short is 1.2085 (Previous door to 1.2500 and now trap for 1.1500) where I believe we have a major support and will not go short again until we close 2 consecutive days below 1.2085. In the meantime I stress you to not buy EUR and sell only on pullbacks. But then again you do what you want :-)..this is my personal opinion. On the short Picture I think we will see some buying at 1.2200, mostly fueled by short term traders. The EUR attempted and failed to correct the 1.2500 -1.2300 drop: when pulling a classic Fibonacci Retracement indicator and the cross fails to retrace more than 25%, the market is clearly trending (downwards in this case) and further losses are to be expected. Again from a behavioral perspective this means longs are trying to get out of their positions and the more time passes the more they are willing to accept lower prices, this before the obnoxious ones, who fail to accept the bear market, will capitulate. PS; By tomorrow I will also publish on my blog theforecaster.eu
Short
by TheForecaster
Patience vs TradingPatience is a great quality in trading. Why ? Simply because it helps you not ceeding to impulsivity and it helps you decreasing mistakes. Patience in trading is similar to patience in poker. A good poker player will wait hours to get the best hand possible. He will wait for a very good pair like AA or KK instead of risking losing with weak pair like 44 or 66. Of course having AA or KK is not a guarantee of winning but you get a much higher probability to do so. In trading you face the same problematic. Sometimes the market doesn't give you anything, no info, no pattern. In this case, you should close your laptop and do something else. Really !!! The more you trade, the more you are exposed to make big mistakes. I used to make scalping for a time but I quickly realized that it was not for me. Staying all day in front of a laptop waiting for an opportunity, no, many opportunities to get 2 to 10 pips only. Some traders are very good scalpers but I am not. I am a swing and day trader. I look for 30 to 20,00 pips on each trade. You really need patience to get 1000 pips profit ! And obviously I have a dedicated account for this kind of investment. Why ? Because, after having made 100 pips, the temptation is huge to take my profit and close the trade. On this account you only have very long term trades where potential is 500 to 20,000 pips ! Patience is also a quality when you do not see any opportunity on the market. You are frustrated, you want to feel the adrenaline of trading. Calm down, stay cold. The market always gives opportunity, It will happen very soon trust me but at this moment, use this time to improve your skills, reading, learning, analysing or simply deconnecting totally from trading. Think how you feel good without the stress of a losing position when you are always looking after your smartphone to check the price. Be patient, wait for the optimal opportunity wen you can sell high and buy low. The opportunity which gives you the best risk-reward. Patience vs trading ? No ! Patience = Trading !
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Traderscope
6
The Escalation Of Failure In TradingThe escalation of failure in trading ! : 5 reasons why most of traders lose their money ! Reason 1 / Step 1 : The "I DON'T ACCEPT LOSING" syndrom Reason 2 / Step 2 : The "I MOVE MY STOP LOSS" temptation Reason 3 / Step 3 : The "AVERAGE DOWN" disease Reason 4 / Step 4 : The "RISK EVERYTHING" game Reason 5 / Step 5 : The "I SWEAR IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN" lie to yourself Let me tell you the story of JOE the gambler : Joe creates an account with $1,000 with a broker offering a x500 leverage. Virtually, Joe could invest almost $500,000 on the market ! Amazing ! Joe thinks that he is a reasonable investor and start investing with 0.05 lot. Joe creates an account with $1,000 with a broker offering a x500 leverage. Virtually Joe could invest almost $500,000 on the market ! Amazing ! So Joe has $1,000 on his account. He has a very good investment strategy which has worked very well for 1 month on demo account. Joe's projections gives $250 profit in one month. It is time now to pass on real account. Joe has read many articles about money management and joe wants to risk only 3% of its capital on each trade. Joe's strategy is to take trades only if a combination of several indicators give the same signal. Joe always use stop loss and take profit. The plan is the plan no matter what ! Right ?! Joe bought 0.05 lot on EURUSD at 1.2200 with a SL at 1.2150. He thinks that the price will increase from 100 pips at least in the next hours to reach 1.23. Reason 1 / Step 1 : The "I DON'T ACCEPT LOSING" syndrom Problem, the price falls from 40 pips. Joe starts panicking. Reason 2 / Step 2 : The "I MOVE MY STOP LOSS" temptation Joe decides to move the SL from 50 to 100 pips at 1.21. Reason 3 / Step 3 : The "AVERAGE DOWN" disease Problem, the market decides to go down again and the position shows a 80 pips floating loss. Joe decides to move the SL from 100 pips to 150 pips at 1.2050 and take a new position of 0.05 lot on EURUSD at 1.2120 with a SL at 1.2050. Problem, the market continues its fall and the price displays 1.2070. Joe thinks OK. I move my SL from 1.2050 to 1.1950. It gives more margin to let breathe the market and Joe takes a third position of 0.05 lot at 1.2050 with a SL at 1.1950. The average price is now 1.2123. Problem, the next days the market starts a range between 1.20 and 1.21 and Joe wants absolutely to leave the overall position in profit. Pride ! Joe loses patience and decides to take a new postion of 0.1 lot on EURUSD at 1.2070. The average price is now 1.2102. Joe is stressed and tired of this situation and decides to put an overall TP at 1.2120. The probability to hit the TP is high. Finally the market goes up and hit the TP during the night and when Joe wakes up the the price on EURUSD is 1.2200. Oh my GOSH ! Joe is frustrated ! Why did I change my TP ? I missed a lot of profit on this movement !!! Joe decides to take a new trade on EURUSD at 1.2200 without SL this time because this time is the right one !!! Pride !!! Problem, the market falls from 25 pips at 1.2175. Joe is convinced that he is right so he takes a new BUY pending position at 1.2150. And now the market makes a huge falls from 1.2175 to 1.2050 during the day. Joe has now 2 positions of 0.05 lot size. At this moment, Joe decided reasonably to close all positions with losses at 1.2050. Joe lost 275 pips on these 2 hasardous trades.
Education
by Traderscope
8
BTCUSD breaks crystal ballsEverybody is interested to find out where BTCUSD is going!! Well, if you only knew where it was heading you'd have an edge on the rest of the world and make loadsah money - right? Too often on Tradingview and other places - even among some so-called expert traders and trainers - I've heard the words, " I predict.... blah blah... ". These are the folk who claim to have some 'greater' insight on the future - these are the chaps and chappesses who claim to have amazing crystal balls. Well - a majority of these folks have had their crystal balls broken by BTCUSD, in the last couple weeks! I'm not surprised, at all. Why? Nobody owns the future. Many a trader confuses a probability estimate with the word 'prediction'. If a probability is 60% for the north, all it means is that there is a 40% chance it'll go south. That's by no means a prediction. The word prediction has a specific meaning. If I predict that the sun will rise in the East tomorrow morning, I do not think anybody would be impressed by that. If however I predicted that the sun would rise in the West on 09 December 2019, that would require some looking into for foundations of evidence leading to such 'prediction'. Note that a prediction requires a lot of specificity and a pretty well defined range of time to make it meaningful. BTCUSD has been a bearish market for several weeks. All the available evidence - right on the charts - show that a down trend is the greater probability. Yet many a trader/trainer has been predicting various high levels. Their so-called predictions are actually statements of speculation for the most part, given with some degree of assertiveness. The markets do not respect anybody. They do as they like. Lots of traders find a great sense in being right - after an event happens - in what they call ' their prediction ' (come through). If a ' predicted ' event happens it seems to confirm their 'predciction'. No - it simply happened their way by chance (and I'm not talking about luck). 'Sense of victory' is a thief in this business! It'll rob you of your money in the long run. How? You come to feel that you were so right the last time, that you'd be right if you do the same thing in the future. Seasoned traders know that it just doesn't work like that. Note the above paragraph excludes traders who have developed a sound strategy that matches their personality characteristics, and who have a proven expectancy ratio over a long period of time across several markets. The following is not advice (I'm sharing my personal long experience and methods): 1. I cannot predict the future - and therefore predict nothing, ever! 2. I can estimate probabilities relevant to a particular time frame. 3. For every probability that favours my estimate, there is a counter probability that I'll be wrong. 4. I chose my trend time frame very carefully. 5. I base my stop-losses mathematically on the ATR and other tools. 6. I agree with myself to accept the loss in advance of making the entry. In other words the money is gone! It's an accepted/acceptable loss at the time of entry. 7. I don't know where a trend will go (being mostly a trend-follower). So, I have no targets but have exit criteria relying on mathematics. 8. I aim to become a 'robot' (not easy) when trading the markets. This is some protection from my inner enemies (never perfect). 9. Nobody has authority over my assessment of probabilities. 10. I do not rely on confirmations on charts, the news or opinions out there. I do not suggest or imply that others should follow my methods. I claim no successes nor do I need to impress anyone. I believe all new traders should be helped to help themselves totally for free. Supplemental/optional (some of my personal thoughts from my diary): On luck, chance and prediction: goo.gl What is and is not prediction: goo.gl
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Captain_Walker
INTENSE moments! BITCOIN and The Uncertainty Principle...! Dear Friends! D4rkEnergY is here with an exiting update on Bitcoin. But before D4 will jump in, he will spread some wisdom to you guys. So trading is basically like quantum-mechanics. Have you ever heard about Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle? It is one of the most famous ideas and principles in physics. It tells us that there is a fuzziness in nature, a fundamental limit to what we can know about the behavior of quantum-particles and, therefore, the smallest scales of nature. Of these scales, the most we can hope for is to calculate probabilities for where things are and how they will behave. The same goes for TA and trading. We can NEVER be sure of where we are going, but the best trader is the one who is best at figure out what is most plausible! So this is a follow up on D4rkEnergYs chart from yesterday. As you can see, as predicted, the small HS pattern is taking form. We are squeezed into the decending triangle, and we will most likely go down. D4 already predicted days ago, we would go under 10,000 USD. But how low will we go? D4rkEnergY thinks 9,100-9,300 USD would be optimal. We need this LONG JUMP and momentum if we want to go way above 10,000 USD. And history shows that. We can see that if we look at the yellow dot, and also further back on the chart. From there on, we will finally go up. The pink inverse HS pattern and the descent retracement will finally allow us that. Kiss and hugs D4rkEnergy is Everywhere PS. Again. It would mean a lot to D4 if you gave him a LIKE if u liked his analysis. It is much appreciated! Thx in advance, my friends!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by D4rkEnergY
26