Mindset and Beliefs: The Foundation of Successful TradingAfter 16 years of trading, I have come to realize that mindset and beliefs are critical to achieving consistent success in the markets.
Through personal experience and countless hours of market analysis, I've discovered that the psychological aspect of trading often makes the difference between consistent gains and recurring losses.
Today we will explore how your mindset and beliefs shape your trading performance and provide practical exercises that I've personally used to develop a winning trading mentality.
Understanding Mindset and Beliefs - The Role of Mindset in Trading
Your mindset encompasses your attitudes, beliefs, and emotional responses towards trading. It influences every decision you make, from the trades you choose to enter to how you react to losses and gains.
A positive, growth-oriented mindset helps traders navigate the volatile nature of the markets, while a fixed, fear-driven mindset can lead to poor decision-making and emotional trading.
Reflecting Beliefs in Trading Results
One of the most profound realizations I've had is that the market will reflect your limiting beliefs back to you in the results you achieve. If you have negative beliefs about money, success, or your self-worth, these beliefs will manifest in your trading outcomes.
For instance, if you subconsciously believe you are not deserving of success or wealth, you may find yourself making decisions that lead to losses, reinforcing those beliefs.
Key Beliefs for Successful Trading
To become a consistently profitable trader, it's crucial to cultivate empowering beliefs. Here are the key beliefs that have transformed my trading journey:
The Market is Neutral: - The market does not act against you personally. It moves based on the collective actions of all participants. Believing the market is neutral helps you stay objective and not take losses personally.
Accepting Uncertainty: - Embrace the uncertainty of trading. Each trade's outcome is unknown and should be viewed as part of a probability game. Accepting this uncertainty reduces emotional reactions to market movements.
Deserving of Success and Wealth: - Develop the belief that you are deserving of success and allowed to make money. This positive self-concept can shift your actions and decisions, aligning them with wealth creation.
Focus on Process Over Outcome: - Successful traders focus on following their trading process rather than fixating on individual trade outcomes. This helps in maintaining consistency and emotional stability.
Practical Exercises to Develop a Positive Trading Mindset
These techniques are not just theoretical. They are exercises I have practiced over the years, transforming me from a consistently losing trader to a consistently profitable one.
Self-Awareness Journaling - Objective: Identify and challenge limiting beliefs.
Exercise:
Step 1: At the end of each trading day, write down any negative thoughts or beliefs you had during trading. For example, "I always lose money on Fridays" or "The market is out to get me."
Step 2: Challenge these beliefs by questioning their validity. Ask yourself, "Is this belief based on facts or emotions?"
Step 3: Replace negative beliefs with positive affirmations. For example, "I am continuously improving my trading skills" or "The market offers opportunities every day."
Frequency: Daily - This exercise helped me recognize and reframe the negative thoughts that were sabotaging my trading efforts.
Visualization Techniques - Objective: Build confidence and a positive mental image of trading success.
Exercise:
Step 1: Sit in a quiet place and close your eyes.
Step 2: Visualize yourself successfully executing trades. Imagine each step, from analyzing the charts to placing the trade and seeing it reach your target.
Step 3: Feel the emotions associated with successful trading, such as confidence and calmness.
Frequency: Daily for 5-10 minutes - Regular visualization has ingrained a sense of confidence and calm, enabling me to approach each trading day with a clear and focused mind.
Cognitive Reframing - Objective: Change negative trading experiences into learning opportunities.
Exercise:
Step 1: Reflect on a recent trading loss.
Step 2: Write down the negative emotions and thoughts associated with the loss.
Step 3: Reframe the experience by identifying what you learned from it. For instance, "I learned the importance of setting stop-loss orders."
Frequency: After every significant trading loss - By reframing losses as learning opportunities, I've been able to grow and improve my trading strategies continuously.
Meditation and Mindfulness - Objective: Enhance focus and emotional regulation.
Exercise:
Step 1: Find a comfortable sitting position.
Step 2: Close your eyes and focus on your breathing.
Step 3: If your mind wanders, gently bring your focus back to your breath.
Frequency: Daily for 10-15 minutes - Meditation has been a game-changer for maintaining emotional control and staying calm during volatile market conditions.
My Transformation in Trading Mindset
Early in my trading career, I struggled with a fixed mindset, believing I wasn't cut out for trading due to a few early losses. I often felt the market was against me and reacted emotionally to trades, resulting in a cycle of poor decisions and further losses.
My beliefs about money, success, and self-worth were reflected in my trading results. The market seemed to mirror my negative beliefs back to me, causing me to lose money consistently.
By incorporating the exercises above, I gradually shifted my mindset:
Self-Awareness Journaling helped me identify and challenge my belief that I would never be a successful trader. I replaced negative thoughts with affirmations of continuous improvement and opportunity.
Visualization Techniques built my confidence by allowing me to mentally practice successful trades, which in turn manifested in real trading scenarios.
Cognitive Reframing turned my losses into valuable learning experiences, reducing my emotional reactions and helping me grow as a trader.
Meditation and Mindfulness enhanced my focus and emotional control, helping me stay calm during volatile market conditions.
Over time, I developed a more positive, growth-oriented mindset. I started to see losses as part of the learning process and focused on following my trading plan diligently.
This transformation in mindset led to more consistent trading performance and increased profitability. The market began to reflect my new, positive beliefs back to me in the form of consistent trading gains.
Conclusion
Your mindset and beliefs form the foundation of your trading success. By developing a positive, growth-oriented mindset and challenging limiting beliefs, you can enhance your trading performance.
The practical exercises outlined above provide a roadmap for transforming your mindset and achieving greater consistency and success in trading.
Remember, the journey to mastering trading psychology is continuous. Stay committed to these practices, and you'll gradually build the mental resilience and confidence needed to thrive in the markets.
These techniques have been instrumental in my journey from a consistently losing trader to a consistently profitable one. I believe they can do the same for you.
Psychology
Unlock the Secrets of Gold Trading: Pericles' Ancient WisdomIn this video, we explore the profound perspectives on fear from historical figures like Pericles and modern thinkers like Ryan Holiday. Pericles, the esteemed Athenian statesman, saw fear as a natural emotion that should not paralyze us. He believed in confronting fear with courage, rational thought, and strategic planning, using it as a tool for effective decision-making.
Ryan Holiday, drawing on Stoic philosophy in his works, echoes these sentiments with stories of historical figures who turned fear into fuel for success. He recounts how John D. Rockefeller faced market crashes with calm calculation and how Theodore Roosevelt overcame health challenges by embracing adversity.
Both Pericles and Holiday teach us that fear, when managed correctly, can become a powerful ally. By acknowledging fear, confronting it with rationality and courage, and using it to sharpen our focus and strategy, we can transform challenges into opportunities for growth and success. This approach is especially relevant in the realm of trading, where mastering fear can lead to better decision-making and greater resilience.
Key Levels and Patterns:
Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL):
The chart shows a series of higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL), indicating an overall uptrend. This pattern suggests that the bullish momentum is still in play.
Ascending Channel:
There is a well-defined ascending channel where the price has been moving upwards within parallel trendlines. This channel can act as a guide for potential support and resistance levels.
Reversal Points (LQZ):
1-Hour LQZ / Reversal Point: Located at 2,429.190. This level is a potential area where price may reverse or find support.
4-Hour LQZ / Reversal Point: Located at 2,391.394. This level also serves as a significant support zone.
Take Profit (TP) Levels:
TP 1: 2,319.385
TP 2: 2,288.085
TP 3: 2,265.369
Recent Price Action:
The price recently reached a higher high at around 2,458.755 and then pulled back slightly, indicating a potential short-term correction within the overall uptrend.
The ascending channel suggests that if the price remains above the lower boundary of the channel, the uptrend is likely to continue.
If the price breaks below the 1-hour LQZ / Reversal Point at 2,429.190, it could test the 4-hour LQZ / Reversal Point at 2,391.394. A further breakdown below this level might lead to the next support at TP 1.
Analysis Summary:
Bullish Scenario: The price could bounce from the current levels or the lower boundary of the ascending channel, aiming for new highs. Traders might look for buying opportunities near the support levels of the channel and reversal points.
Bearish Scenario: If the price breaks below the identified reversal points and the ascending channel, it might signal a deeper correction, potentially heading towards the TP levels for possible buying opportunities at lower prices.
By applying Pericles' wisdom of confronting fear with rationality and Ryan Holiday's insights on turning fear into strategic advantage, traders can approach these levels with a clear, disciplined mindset, making informed decisions even in volatile market conditions.
Master Gold Trading in High-Volatility Zones! Unlock Risk Manag.In this video, I delve into the crucial aspects of Risk Management and share my insights on interpreting the market when it is in critical zones, just like the one displayed on our current XAUUSD chart. Here's what you can expect:
Risk Management Techniques
Learn the strategies I employ to manage risk effectively, ensuring that my trades are protected against sudden market moves. I will cover:
Setting appropriate stop-loss levels below key support zones like the 15M LQZ.
Calculating position sizes based on account equity to maintain a disciplined approach.
The importance of risk-reward ratios in ensuring long-term profitability.
Market Perception in Key Zones
I explain my approach to analyzing the market when it is within significant liquidity zones (LQZ), as seen in the chart. This includes:
Understanding price behavior around Daily LQZ (2,450.370), 4hr LQZ (2,447.909), 1hr TP/LQZ (2,419.054), and 15M LQZ (2,399.472).
How these zones influence my trading decisions and help identify potential entry and exit points.
Time Frame for Trade Execution
Discover the time frames I focus on when executing trades in these volatile zones. I discuss:
Benefits and drawbacks of different time frames.
Why certain time frames, such as 15-minute, 1-hour, and 4-hour charts, are more suitable for analyzing price action and making informed trade decisions in the current market context.
Trading Sessions Participation
Gain insights into which trading sessions I actively participate in and why. Understanding the dynamics of different sessions (Asian, London, and New York) can significantly impact your trading strategy and execution. I will share:
My preferences and how each session's characteristics influence market volatility and trading opportunities.
The best times to trade gold (XAUUSD) based on historical volatility patterns.
Chart Analysis Overview
We analyze the current XAUUSD chart showing an ascending channel, highlighting key support and resistance levels. Key technical points include:
Support Levels: Near the bottom of the ascending channel and around 2,399.472 (15M LQZ).
Resistance Levels: Near the top of the ascending channel and around 2,450.370 (Daily LQZ).
Price Action: Higher highs and higher lows within the ascending channel, indicating a bullish trend. A noticeable spike breaking through the channel suggests strong buying interest at lower
levels.
Potential Trade Setup
Long Position: Consider entering near the lower boundary of the ascending channel or the 15M LQZ support level, targeting the 1hr TP/LQZ or the Daily LQZ.
Stop Loss: Place below the 15M LQZ to manage risk.
Key Takeaways
Master the art of risk management to safeguard your trades.
Learn to perceive and analyze the market effectively within key liquidity zones.
Understand the importance of selecting the right time frame for trade execution.
Know which trading sessions offer the best opportunities and align them with your trading strategy.
The Psychology of Mass Behavior in Trading and How to Overcome
Hello Traders,
Understanding the psychology of mass behavior in trading is crucial for success in the markets. This post delves into key psychological phenomena and provides strategies to overcome these biases.
Key Psychological Phenomena
1. Herd Behavior: Traders often follow the crowd without independent analysis. This can lead to bubbles and crashes.
2. Emotional Contagion: Emotions like fear and greed spread rapidly among traders, driving irrational market behavior.
3. Overconfidence and Optimism Bias: Traders overestimate their ability to predict market movements and believe they are less likely to face negative outcomes.
4. Information Cascades: Decisions are based on the actions of others rather than personal analysis.
5. Confirmation Bias: Traders seek out information that confirms their beliefs, ignoring contradictory data.
6. Availability Heuristic: Overestimating the likelihood of events based on recent news or experiences.
7. Loss Aversion: The pain of losses is felt more acutely than the pleasure of gains, leading to irrational decision-making.
8. Social Proof: Looking to others’ actions for cues in uncertain situations.
9. Fear and Greed: These emotions drive market movements, often leading to panic selling or speculative bubbles.
How to Overcome These Biases
1. Risk Management: Implement strict risk management strategies, such as stop-loss orders and position sizing, to protect against irrational market moves.
2. Contrarian Investing: Consider taking positions contrary to prevailing market trends when there is a strong indication of herd behavior.
3. Diversification: Spread investments across different assets to reduce the impact of market volatility driven by mass behavior.
4. Continuous Learning: Stay educated about market psychology and remain aware of your biases.
5. Emotional Discipline: Develop a trading plan and stick to it, regardless of market noise. Meditation and mindfulness can also help maintain emotional balance.
6. Independent Analysis: Conduct thorough research and analysis before making trading decisions. Rely on your judgment rather than following the crowd.
7. Seek Feedback: Engage with a trading community or mentor to gain diverse perspectives and avoid confirmation bias.
By understanding and mitigating the effects of mass behavior in trading, we can make more rational, informed decisions and improve our trading performance. Let’s strive to be mindful of these psychological factors and continue to learn and grow as traders.
Happy trading!
Psychology: Trade Smart - Focus on Facts, Not wishes!See the Truth: Trading Without Bias
Discover the critical importance of objective analysis in trading.
Learn how to avoid emotional biases, stay neutral, and focus on what the market truly shows you. This guide will help you improve your trading strategies and achieve more consistent results.
Recommendations for new tradersNo matter the size of your deposit, begin trading with small amounts: $10, $100. As you gain experience, you can increase your deposit, but be ready to lose it. This will help you understand market participant behavior.
- Trade only with funds you can afford to lose; losing them shouldn't affect your quality of life.
- Don't rush to leave your main job; let trading be a hobby initially. It might turn into something more over time, but that's not guaranteed.
- More trades don't equal more profit. Sometimes fewer trades can be more profitable than many daily trades. Without experience, it can be challenging to know when to stay out of the market.
- Traders spend 90% of their time analyzing instruments and circumstances. Forget rushing; opportunities appear and disappear daily. Learn to wait. Begin with paper trading to get accustomed to the process.
- Note the time spent as well as profit or loss. Regardless of your preferred timeframes, start with longer ones like monthly, weekly, and daily charts for an overall view.
- Markets are cyclical; they don't rise or fall indefinitely. Reversals often happen unexpectedly. Base decisions on a well-thought-out plan, not emotions.
- Develop your own strategy based on your data and temperament. Don't ask others where to buy or sell; they don't know. If an instrument has risen several hundred percent from the bottom, entering without stops is irrational.
- If it has gained several thousand percent, avoid entering without waiting for a significant pullback. Even if indicators suggest a specific direction, always consider a 1% chance of the opposite happening to avoid significant losses. Always manage risks.
- Regularly withdraw a portion of your profits. Understand why you're investing your time. Ideally, withdraw all your initial investment over time to make operating the deposit easier psychologically.
- There are no universal strategies. Your strategy should be proven but flexible to market conditions. What works in a rising market may not work in a falling one, and vice versa. Adapt quickly and manage risks skillfully to make money.
Seeing others make profitable trades can lead to envyFor new traders, market decisions are often driven by emotions like fear and greed, rather than well-established trading strategies. While much has been written about this, there are other significant factors that influence traders' decisions:
Social Pressure: Traders often make trades based on the opinions and actions of others, rather than their own strategies and the real market situation. This social influence can come from chat rooms, online communities, or social media, where opinions are frequently voiced by other inexperienced traders.
Envy: Seeing others make profitable trades can lead to envy. This emotion pushes traders to make impulsive decisions, such as entering trades without proper analysis, hoping to replicate others' successes. Instead of waiting for their own signals, they act on impulse and lose control.
Common Mistakes Among New Traders:
Reacting to News and Opinions: Rather than following their own trading vehicle (strategy), novice traders often react to news or opinions from others. This leads to decisions that are not grounded in their own analysis.
Overactivity: Many mistakes stem from the feeling of needing to always be active in the market. New traders see others trading successfully and feel pressured to do the same. This can result in excessive trading and taking positions without proper signals.
Paralysis from Fear: When a genuinely good opportunity arises, traders who have been overly active may be too paralyzed by fear to act. Their energy is wasted on meaningless transactions, and negative emotions cloud their judgment.
Impact on Trading Performance:
Wasted Energy: Excessive, impulsive transactions deplete a trader’s energy and focus, leading to poor decision-making when real opportunities present themselves.
Negative Emotions: Constantly reacting to others and not following a personal strategy can result in frustration and dissatisfaction, which negatively impact self-esteem and confidence in one’s trading vehicle.
Loss of Control: Acting out of fear, greed, social pressure, or envy leads to a loss of control over trading decisions, causing more losses and missed opportunities.
Key Takeaways for New Traders:
Develop a Personal Strategy: Rely on your own trading plan and analysis.
Stay Patient: Wait for your entries and avoid impulsive trading.
Manage Emotions: Keep emotions like fear, greed, envy, and social pressure in check to maintain control over your trading decisions.
Focus on Long-Term Success: Avoid excessive trading and focus on making informed, strategic trades.
By being aware of these psychological factors and actively working to mitigate their impact, new traders can make more informed and rational trading decisions.
✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes.
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How to go through a LOSING STREAK better?
🍏1. Everything starts with preparation and true expectations. Losing streaks will happen from time to time, accept it if you want to be a good trader. Even the best traders on the planet have them. But it’s the reaction to them that separates good and bad traders.
Know your probability of losing streak, based on your own backtesting and accept them before they even happen. Keep longterm focus!
🍋2. Make sure you’re practicing process based trading, not outcome based. Before every trade, ask yourself if anyone in the whole worlds can say the outcome of any individual trade? The answer is obvious - no one can do it. So is it rational to build expectation of a specific market moves in this individual trade, or nearest several trades - that they are completely uncertain and you are working with random distribution of your edge.
🥥3. Once in a streak, remind yourself about your testing. See that over the past 200 or more trades, you were profitable, at least RR wise. These 5-6 losing trades you’re having now are just a very small part of a huge data collection you did before, and they are part of random distribution.
🍈4. In a losing streak, there’s usually an urge to trade more to earn the lost $ amount back. It’s a mistake, as overtrading will lead to only one outcome - even more loss in short or longterm perspective.
🍎5. In the past, I wanted to reach some state of unbreakable consistency, "once and for all", and when I thought I did it, I started to expect things to be easy from now on and not to struggle or put effort, cause now I'm fully consistent. And that was exact moment when everything fell apart.
The truth is, at least for me and for now, is that I need to make good decisions - mentally and technically - EVERY DAY and EVERY MOMENT, to actually prove I'm consistent. And consistency is dynamic, I'll continue to work on it, it's like gardening, when you need to put some effort everyday and it's never fixed or done, at least for me.
Control of EmotionsTrading in the cryptocurrency market often resembles a marathon where everyone aims to be the first. Unlike running, where there's only one winner, multiple traders can succeed in the crypto marathon. However, success in trading involves serious psychological work, which we'll discuss today.
Everyone aspires to achieve their goals and be successful. Beginners in any field need to go through a learning curve, gradually honing their skills. The crypto market is not about luck; it requires constant self-improvement, learning from mistakes, and analyzing actions. The psychology of crypto trading involves a set of rules, methods, and actions to ensure successful trading, profit-making, and minimizing unavoidable failures.
A professional trader approaches trading with a focus on results and a realistic assessment of risky situations. Financial success, in the form of net profit, is the ultimate goal.
Let's explore the basic psychological tools used by professionals for successful trading:
Always at Hand
The whole world of cryptocurrencies is in your pocket.
Don't Think About Defeat
When starting a trade, don't focus on potential losses. Such thoughts set you up for failure from the outset. Be confident and avoid dwelling on the fear of making mistakes. While mistakes will happen, treat them as valuable lessons and continue improving your trading skills.
Visualize
Although not a scientific method, psychologists emphasize the importance of visualization. By visualizing success, you can block out fears of making mistakes and focus on achieving your goals effectively. Visualize yourself executing your strategy professionally and accurately, then act accordingly.
Be a Recluse
Cryptocurrency trading is a solitary activity. Ignore other people's opinions and avoid external interference. Your forecast accuracy will improve when you analyze market situations independently, without relying on others' advice.
Self-Realization Comes First
While trading in the crypto market is finance-related, view it as a creative process that should bring you satisfaction. Be confident in yourself and your success, and see trading as a means of self-fulfillment. This mindset will help you navigate the chaotic and unpredictable market as a tool for success.
Think About the Risks
Never risk funds you aren't prepared to lose. Consider potential losses when creating your strategy. Stick to your loss limits, even if the temptation for larger trades is high. Sometimes, multiple small trades can be more profitable than one big trade.
Discipline
Avoid reacting to sudden emotions or news. Trade according to your pre-developed plan without deviation. In trading, discipline is synonymous with success. This is particularly crucial for novice traders, as the volatile market often puts psychological pressure on them.
Control of Emotions
Monitor your emotional state and avoid trading when influenced by certain news or events. Emotional trading leads to losses. If you notice impulsive decision-making, take a break to calm down.
Vacation
Everyone needs breaks. If emotions and feelings drive you, take a break and avoid thinking about trading, assets, or cryptocurrencies. Engage in activities you enjoy and spend time with loved ones to recharge.
Statistics
Keep detailed statistics. This advice is valuable for both beginners and experienced traders. Record the number of transactions per day, profit and loss balance, positions, and other indicators. Analyze this information weekly. Statistics are a great way to create an effective strategy.
By incorporating these psychological tools, traders can navigate the cryptocurrency market more effectively, enhancing their chances of success and minimizing losses.
Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch!
✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes.
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Social Media - and its danger!Social Media... the part of the Internet that is very dangerous when it comes to promises, money, and wealth.
We've all seen it: on social media, you can supposedly make millions in under 15 minutes. Pictures with a Lamborghini and a TradingView chart above it...
Let's go through some thoughts new traders may not be aware of and how to look at them with a critical mind!
(🚩 -> Red Flag)
📍 MetaTrader / Think or Swim / NinjaTrader / cTrader 📍
There are more, but let's focus on the more popular ones.
Pictures of winning trades are useless when it comes to trading. Trading is done over years in a consistent manner, not over a few trades.
Pictures of MT5, NT, or any other platform can easily be faked.
You can set up your own little server for MetaTrader, play it out, and you have your fake trades.
📍 Fancy Cars / Travels / Houses 📍
Showing a fancy lifestyle is another big 🚩.
All those people with fancy cars have leased or rented them for the image of being successful. It's to lure you in with false promises!
(Although trading can be very fulfilling if you are willing to put in the work!)
📍 New Setup Every Few Weeks 📍
If a channel has a new setup every few weeks, this is only made for scamming new traders, not to have a setup that works.
(Think about it, if you have a setup that works, why would you change?)
Explore their profile, look for this pattern, and sometimes you will find it. Simple step :)
📍 Selling Courses / Mentorship 📍
You can learn all of trading for free.
TradingView has a very nice paper trading feature that you can use and a very unique ideas section where you can find all the information you need!
Here we come to a golden rule when it comes to starting trading: NEVER buy a course or mentorship. Never! You don't need it!
(And also, TradingView's paper trading is free!)
📍 Very Basic Information Available Only 📍
Trading is hard; trading needs a lot of concepts fitting together like RR-System, Money Management, Multi-Timeframe Analysis.
If you see a social media post with 1 chart with some boxes and another picture with a money screenshot, this is 100% fake.
You need A LOT more than 1 chart and a lot more knowledge than you can ever show on even 3 charts.
📍 AI 📍
Oh, we all love AI, but I'm afraid that AI is not in the picture (yet).
Pine can't code it, and the current state of "AI" is a "guessing" game.
(AI just guesses what comes next, in the form of vectors... it's extremely complex, but it doesn't exist in trading.)
📍 Indicators 📍
Indicators are a very nice thing to have AFTER you have your strategy down, not before.
There is no indicator that works on its own; you plug it in and it makes money... that doesn't exist!
(Think about it critically: if that existed, why wouldn't we solve world hunger?)
📍 Typical Selling Point Sentences 📍
"Learn trading in 15 minutes" or "This is all you need" or "Only trade for 10 minutes a day" are the typical scam titles that you see, and with those, you know 100% they are fake.
Trading is not done in 15 minutes, trading is hard work, and trading takes a long time to learn. There are no shortcuts.
📍 Things You Can Ask Them 📍
Typically speaking, they will not answer any of these questions because they can't.
Like "How do you calculate your position size with your current RR setup?" This means they studied this, and you can be sure they didn't :)
Or "How does leverage exactly work?" and like 99.99% of the YouTubers got it wrong.
But a very nice thing to ask is a simple "Can I have a broker statement of your account?" and boom, they are gone.
🏆 Golden Rules 🏆
Never buy anything (you can learn 100% everything for free).
Ask critical questions and follow up on them.
Trading is hard; there is no 15-minute setup.
Trading can't be 100% automated.
Odds and Psychology.Based on "Think fast and slow", people have two system thinking. System-1 is autonomous, always working in background (ie unconsciousness), lazy, intuitive, fast, has stereotypes. System-2 is rational, hard problem solving, takes effort and energy, cuts trough the BS, etc (ie consciousness).
Based on another book called "superforcasters" and some dude I forgot his name, best approach for odds is to have simple system; where 100% certain. 93% almost certain. 75% probable. 50% about even (or maybe). 25% probably not. 7% almost certainly not. 0% impossible. All forecast are subjective guesses.
The catch; If you think something is 100% - you would go allin with max lever. (If you dont) your beliefs or opinion go against your actions. If you dont believe it's wise to go allin - then odds are not actually 100%. If you are stressed about 93% spot, then maybe it might not be 93% after all. (1:14).
In key SPX areas, based on business cycle and TNX, logic says one odds (or System-2) and your intuition (or feel) says differently. You are either too bearish or too bullish.
This is a simple representation of concept.
Another key concept is that TIME <----> PROBABILITY are at opposite sides of coin. The closer or far away in time something - more or less risk, ie higher or lower probability.
BARBEQUE NATION: The Psychology of YOUR tradesEmotions play a significant role in trading and can have a profound impact on decision-making and overall trading performance. Here are some common emotions that traders experience and how they can influence trading behavior:
1. Fear:
Fear is a powerful emotion that often arises when traders face unexpected market movements or potential losses. It can lead to impulsive decisions, such as closing a position prematurely or avoiding new trades altogether. Fear can prevent traders from sticking to their trading plans and strategies, ultimately hindering their ability to make rational choices.
2. Greed:
Greed is the desire for excessive profits and can lead traders to take unnecessary risks. It often emerges during bullish market trends when traders become overly confident and start making impulsive trades. Greed can cloud judgment and cause traders to hold onto positions longer than they should, leading to significant losses when the market reverses.
3. Hope:
While hope can provide optimism, it becomes problematic when it's not based on logical analysis. Traders may hold onto losing positions hoping for a turnaround, ignoring warning signs that indicate the trade is unlikely to recover. Balancing hope with realistic assessments of market conditions is crucial to avoid capital erosion.
4. Regret:
Regret can arise from missed opportunities or poor decisions. Traders may feel remorse for not entering a trade that subsequently turns profitable, or they may regret entering a trade that results in losses. Regret can lead to impulsive actions, such as chasing trades or deviating from the trading plan to make up for perceived missed opportunities.
5. FOMO (Fear of Missing Out):
FOMO can lead traders to make rushed decisions in an attempt to catch up with perceived profitable opportunities. This can result in impulsive trading and following the crowd without proper analysis. FOMO-driven actions often disregard risk management and trading strategies, leading to poor outcomes.
6. Ego:
Ego can arise from both winning and losing trades. A trader with a big ego may become overconfident after a string of successful trades, leading to complacency and neglect of risk management. Conversely, a trader who experiences losses may let their ego drive them into revenge trading, seeking to prove themselves and recover losses without a sound strategy.
Successful traders learn to manage these emotions through discipline, self-awareness, and a well-defined trading plan. They understand that emotions can cloud judgment and lead to impulsive decisions, so they prioritize rational analysis and risk management to achieve consistent and profitable trading outcomes.
Should we also post on the set of practices we personally follow to build disciplined psychology?
It takes a lot of time and effort to compile such posts. If it was worth your time, Would you give us a boost?
Have Requests, Questions, or Suggestions? DM us or comment below.👇
⚠️Disclaimer: We are not registered advisors. The views expressed here are merely personal opinions. Irrespective of the language used, Nothing mentioned here should be considered as advice or recommendation. Please consult with your financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Like everybody else, we too can be wrong at times ✌🏻
Special words for gold trading
We often see these words when trading. If you understand them, trading will be easier.
Including "deposit, withdrawal, position, closing, take profit, stop loss", etc.; they mean:
Deposit: remit personal funds to the trading account for trading;
Withdrawal: transfer part or all of the balance in the trading account to a personal bank account;
Position: the name of the trader buying and selling contracts in the market; establishing a trading order is called "establishing a position", a buy order is called a "long position", and a short-selling order is called a "short position"
Closing: ending a held buy order or sell order;
Take profit: the trading order finally achieves the profit target and leaves the market with a profit;
Stop Loss: When the order loss reaches the maximum tolerable amount, admit the loss and leave the market;
In addition to the commonly used terms, there are also some special terms involved in the trading market;
For example: heavy position, light position, carry order, lock position, liquidation
Heavy position: Most of the funds in the trader's account are involved in order transactions
Light position: The trader only uses a small part of the funds in the account to participate in the order;
In trading, there is a most basic principle that "don't put all your eggs in one basket"
There are always risks in the financial market, and traders should remember one sentence:
Avoid risks, trade with light positions, and never hold heavy positions.
Light position standards:
Total loss of holding positions ≤ one-tenth of the account amount
The number of lots for a single transaction of 10,000 US dollars is not more than 0.5-1 lot
Carry order:
When traders encounter losses, they have no stop-loss strategy, do not know how to stop losses and choose opportunities to start over, but always hold losing orders and bet everything on the rise and fall of the market. This is a behavior that should be avoided in trading.
Locking:
Similar to "carrying orders", when traders encounter losses, they do not implement stop-loss strategies, but establish reverse orders while holding loss orders. Locking can only allow traders to temporarily stop further losses, but cannot get rid of losses. If the net value is not enough, a "black swan event" will occur, and the short-order spread will increase instantly, which will also lead to a margin call.
Margin call:
When the funds in the trader's trading account are not enough to trade, it is a margin call; margin call means the loss of all principal.
If you are a novice, these must be helpful to you! I will share trading knowledge from time to time, and you can follow me if you need it.
A few points that I often repeat to myself to sober myself upEveryone has noticed that after a profitable position, emotions of joy pass quickly than in a situation with a loss. Mostly we all know the instruments, we all use same tools, we can watch,read million sources about trading. So why less than 3% profitable on a distance?
⌛️Psychology
A few points that I often repeat to myself to sober myself up
- Your expectations, your problems! Just because it seemed to you that the price should have gone in your direction, does not mean that the market is against you! I understand that there will ALWAYS be losses! Therefore, I came to terms with this fact and simply treat trading as a job! If you open any other offline business, you will have costs and expenses, losses! It's the same story with trade!
- I conducted a survey and see that the majority are trading from liquidation! I try to balance with 1% trades! Of course 0.5 is better. Plus you need to determine the amount of loss you can afford per day! It is best to stop at 2 unprofitable trades per day! Then you just want to win back again and again!
- Pauses! You definitely need to take breaks! The number of trades absolutely does not determine success! Although I used to think that if I don’t trade today it means I’m not working! Not really, quality is more important than quantity.
- Probably the most important thing is that victories or defeats in the market cannot and should not in any way affect my attitude towards life in general, my family, my health! It's just a job in which there is no limit to learning!
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Mastering the Trader Skillset: Building a Strong PyramidIn the dynamic world of trading, success hinges on a robust skillset. Imagine this skillset as a pyramid, with each level representing a crucial component that traders must master to achieve consistent profitability. At the base, we have Technical Analysis, followed by Risk Management in the middle, and Discipline and Patience at the top. Additionally, Automation plays a pivotal role, integrating seamlessly across the entire structure. Let's delve into each of these elements and understand how they contribute to a trader's success.
The Base: Technical Analysis
The foundation of the trader's pyramid is Technical Analysis. This involves studying price charts, patterns, and various indicators to make informed trading decisions. Mastering technical analysis is crucial because it:
1. Identifies Trends and Patterns: Recognizing market trends and chart patterns allows traders to predict future price movements, making it easier to enter and exit trades at optimal times.
2. Utilizes Indicators: Tools like moving averages, RSI (Relative Strength Index), MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), and Bollinger Bands provide insights into market momentum, volatility, and potential reversals.
3. Supports Strategy Development: Technical analysis forms the basis for creating and refining trading strategies, whether they are short-term or long-term.
The Middle: Risk Management
Sitting at the middle of the pyramid is Risk Management, a critical component that ensures long-term survival in the market. Effective risk management includes:
1. Position Sizin: Determining the appropriate size for each trade to limit exposure and avoid catastrophic losses.
2. Stop-Loss Orders: Implementing stop-loss orders to automatically close losing positions before they can significantly impact the trading account.
3. Diversification: Spreading investments across different assets or markets to reduce risk.
By prioritizing risk management, traders can protect their capital and remain in the game, even during periods of market volatility.
The Peak: Discipline and Patience
At the pinnacle of the pyramid are Discipline and Patience, the traits that distinguish successful traders from the rest. These qualities are essential for:
1. Adhering to Strategies: Sticking to predetermined trading plans and strategies, even in the face of emotional challenges and market noise.
2. Avoiding Overtrading: Exercising restraint to prevent impulsive decisions and overtrading, which can erode profits and increase risk.
3. Waiting for the Right Opportunities: Having the patience to wait for high-probability setups, rather than forcing trades.
Discipline and patience ensure that traders remain consistent and rational, avoiding the pitfalls of emotional trading.
The Integrative Element: Automation
Automation in trading acts as an integrative element that enhances every level of the pyramid. It involves using algorithms and trading bots to execute trades based on predefined criteria. Automation benefits traders by:
1. Eliminating Emotional Bias: Automated systems follow strategies without being influenced by fear or greed, ensuring objective decision-making.
2. Enhancing Efficiency: Automation can analyze vast amounts of data quickly and execute trades with precision, improving overall trading efficiency.
3. Consistence: Automated strategies maintain consistency in trading, sticking to the plan without deviation.
By incorporating automation, traders can optimize their technical analysis, streamline risk management, and uphold discipline and patience.
The trader skillset pyramid provides a comprehensive framework for achieving trading success. Technical Analysis forms the sturdy base, enabling traders to understand market behavior and develop strategies. Risk Management, positioned in the middle, safeguards their capital and ensures longevity. Discipline and Patience, at the top, are the hallmarks of professional trading, allowing traders to execute their plans effectively. Automation, interwoven throughout, enhances each component, providing a modern edge in the fast-paced trading environment.
By mastering each level of this pyramid, traders can build a resilient and profitable trading career, equipped to navigate the complexities of financial markets with confidence.
Trading Psychology: How to trade economic data.As traders, one of the biggest challenges we face is deciding what factors to consider when opening a trade: should we base ourselves on charts, news, macroeconomic data?
Many opt for a combination of all these elements, and although all traders go through the same stages, there are different routes to success. The problem with following the crowd is that you end up doing exactly what everyone else is doing.
The solution: forge your own path, with all the challenges this entails.
Most traders follow the news, analyze the data and then compare them with the charts to try to determine the best entry point. And as if that were not enough, they often seek the opinion of other online traders to confirm their decision. However, consulting the opinions of others can be counterproductive, as they can alter, for better or worse, any personal opinion about the analysis we are conducting.
We always tend to think that others know more than us and that if they think differently, it must be for some reason and that we will not be the ones who are right.
This is just another example of market psychology and the human tendency to always follow the crowd, regardless of whether it is right or not.
I believe that in order to make a living from trading, research must start with yourself, it is essential. And this is necessary to confirm or refute the information with which the market bombards us every minute.
You need very intense training and experience to make a living from trading.
How many traders trade intraday based on economic calendar data? How many really make money? It’s not worth it.
Aware of the multitude of traders who congregate around the platform at key times, market makers have all kinds of tricks. Their favorite; the sweep. Up, down and both sides at the same time.
Is a mental stop better? In my case, no. I don’t know how mentally strong you are, but the word says it all: mental-stop. When you expose yourself to letting the mind think, you are entering dangerous psychological terrain and it is very difficult, if you are losing, to close with discipline in each and every operation.
Notice that I say in each and every one, because with not respecting a single one and that the price does not return in that operation to the entry point, it will be your elimination as a trader.
Therefore, anything that can cause a loss is worth discarding.
Greed doesn’t let you, we know that with a data in favor of our position you can make a lot of money but if the data is contrary and also forms a gap, no one will save us. And let’s not talk about if you are leveraged. Being leveraged and having the position run against you is one of the hardest experiences a trader can have.
Seeing how your capital is destroyed at forced marches, how losses increase, how you are not able to close because you expect a recovery to do so is dramatic.
Realizing that first loss, which at first seemed big to you and now doesn’t seem so much. You would “kill” to lose only that.
Then, once you are losing a lot you will no longer be able to close. There comes a time when you assume it and let the losses run as far as they go. You have accepted it. You risk the account in the hope of recovering.
This means hours of waiting for the desired recovery. In addition, the market is very rogue. After the fall comes the rebound, usually up to half. You get the idea that it is going to recover completely and instead of closing you hold on to see if the moment comes when you no longer lose anything.
The market will make you believe that this is going to happen. You may even average (add more positions) so that the recovery is faster and by the way, if the price goes beyond where you have opened the first operation, you even come out with profits.
But, as I say, the market is very cruel and when you start to dream and have hope again, it turns around and falls with even more force if possible, crushing your account and destroying your morale.
The result we all know. If the account does not have enough capital to withstand the bleeding, margin call will “come to see us”. And if it does, it will take you days, weeks, months or even years to recover your capital, if you do. Days, weeks, months and even years without liquidity to do what you like the most, trading.
In view of this, stoploss, as well as avoiding any situation that makes you lose is more than justified.
The art of trading in favor of the TrendWe have a clear bias of a psychological nature that basically consists of going against everything that experiences a movement in favor.
When a trend is established, it always tends to last longer than we expect:
_ It’s going to turn around now!, it’s going to turn around now! but it never does.
All that time you’re waiting for a market to turn is precious time you’re losing to go in favor. You’re missing multiple opportunities by waiting for just one, the turn.
And what’s worse, you’re probably even entering the market against it, with its consequent “bites” to your account.
When there is an established trend, the best thing you can do is wait for a retracement of it to enter in its favor.
Therefore:
- Every time there is a trend, for example bullish, if you go against it at every resistance you find, you are trading counter-trend.
- Likewise, if you go against it at every support, in a bearish trend, you are trading counter-trend.
Many times prices stop at supports and resistances, and you may get a “pinch” but by doing so you are not trading in the correct way but as the market wants you to do.
When Are You READY to Trade with REAL MONEY?Hello hello, R2F here with another discussion.
Today, I'd like to go over the question, 'when do you know you are ready to trade with real money?'
Too many traders rush into trading with real capital before they are ready, and end up losing more money than neccessary on learning journey. People are generally impatient creatures and want to get into actions as soon as possible. Perhaps they want to find out if they are magically a trading savant before wasting time on all the usual work that is required.
However, trading is extremely simple, albeit not easy. The difficult part comes in the form of the investment of time and experience, and refining yourself as a person. Once you had that in the bag, trading offers the potential for generational wealth that comes with the freedom of time.
Without further ado, I share my thoughts on how to approach this burning question.
- R2F
HOPE TRADING: This is how you lose big money in tradingHope Trading: How Traders Lose Money in Trading
This image shows how traders lose their money in trading due to hope. Hope is good but also you should believe in your analysis if your SL hits then accept that you are wrong now and should not hope in the wrong direction.
In the world of trading, hope can be both a friend and a foe. While optimism is essential, relying solely on hope can lead to significant losses. Let's explore why:
1. The Power of Hope:
- Hope keeps traders motivated and optimistic.
- It encourages persistence during challenging times.
- However, hope alone is not a winning strategy.
2. The Danger of Blind Hope:
- Traders often cling to hope even when their analysis suggests otherwise.
- Ignoring stop-loss (SL) levels due to hope can be disastrous.
- Hope can blind us to market realities.
3. Balancing Hope and Analysis:
- Believe in your analysis, but remain open to adjusting your strategy.
- If your SL is hit, accept that you were wrong and cut your losses.
- Avoid hoping for a miraculous turnaround.
4. Risk Management:
- Set clear risk limits and stick to them.
- Use SL orders to protect your capital.
- Hope should never override risk management rules.
Remember, hope is valuable, but it must be grounded in sound analysis and risk management.
Thanks
Happy Trading
Trading is execution - USD/JPY Live trading exampleThis is a short mentoring/educational session.
The USD/JPY is the pair we are trading this evening, I analyse this based on the mtf wave structure.
I explained the importance of the secondary trend, as a determinant tool or information for what may happen in the future.
I also shared one of my waves of success strategy using the DMI and the VMP for trade execution.
Finally, after taking the trade, I explained late Mark Douglas probabilistic principles which acts as a solid foundation of our behaviour and interaction with the market.
Delusions of Grandeur - Breaking Your Trading ModelIn this video I would like to talk about a mistake many beginners as well as intermediate traders make, which is having a potentially profitable trading model, and pushing it to the point it stops working. I will discuss WHY it happens, WHY it never works, and WHY you should avoid this blunder.
Your trading model is the strategy that you use to trade with. It can include how you determine your entries, stoplosses, and targets, as well as how you manage risk. The only way to know if a trading model works, and how well it works if it even does at all, is through backtesting and forwardtesting. The more data you collect, the more insight into the model you will have. The main thing I want you to keep in mind is that a trading model’s efficacy relies on collected data, and this data must be consistent. It’s the same as any other industry that does research on their market or products.
So, why do so many traders push a model until it stops yielding them profit?
I would say the first reason is impatience. Humans are impatient, especially nowadays in this of social media and technology. Some traders won’t spend the time doing all the necessary testing required. They want to start making money as quick as possible, but little do they know they end up losing their account as quick as possible. Secondly, it takes time for your setups to appear in the market. People have this naturally preconceived notion that you need to be doing something in order to be working and making money. This is the complete opposite in trading, which goes against our programming. So what ends up happening is traders being less stringent with their model’s criteria just so they can trade more often.
Next is greed. Generally speaking, the safest way to survive as a trader in the long run is through compound interest. Risking small, and letting the math do the work. But that’s not very sexy. Many traders go against their logical risk rules in order to potentially make more money, or more likely, lose more money, or all of it.
Boredom is a factor as well. Seeking excitement from trading is a one-way ticket to blowing your account. You’ll never make it as a trader if you think like that. All good systems are rarely thrilling. It is perfectly fine to be in love with trading, but it should not get your heart racing.
It all comes down to being disciplined. Doing the work, putting in the time, and following the trading model you have either adopted or created yourself. It absolutely doesn’t matter if you have losing trades. It absolutely doesn’t matter if your trade setup appears only once or twice a month. Those are not hindering you from becoming very wealthy in due time. But, running around jumping from strategy to strategy, not sticking to a model’s rules, those things will ensure that you never make it as a trader. It is as simple as that.
I know, it is not easy for many of you. It wasn’t easy for me as well. I am naturally face-paced. So, one piece of advice I have is cultivate organized baby steps. What does that mean? Clearly plan what you want to achieve, and then start with frequent tiny goals that you have no reason to not accomplish. For example, you want to collect data for 500 backtested trades. Start with the goal of backtesting 1 trade per day for a week. The important part here is not only making sure you do that 1 trade backtest, but making sure you ONLY do 1. If you are in the “mood” to do more, DON’T. What would it demonstrate if your decisions are based on your mood? What will happen when you are in the mood to do none? If you say 1 trade, stick to 1 trade. After a week, you can stick with 1 or scale up to 2 backtested trades per day for a week if you are ready, or perhaps a month, it’s up to you. This is just an example. You can apply this method to anything. Basically, you want to condition yourself to be consistent and disciplined. You want to show yourself that YOU are the boss of your life. YOU consciously decide what happens, not your emotions. The only way to do that is to grow that muscle bit by bit. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.
- R2F
The Value of an Unbiased BiasHi everyone,
In this video I would like to discuss the value of having an unbiased bias when it comes to your analysis. It’s a dry subject with only a little chart illustrating near the end, but the boring stuff usually tends to be the most important topics when it comes to making it in this industry.
I think most of us are familiar with the word ‘bias’. For those that aren’t, basically, in the context of trading, all it means is being in favour of the market moving either to the upside or downside. Your bias comes by means of your analysis and can be related to any timeframe. For example, I could have a bullish bias on a higher timeframe monthly chart, and a bearish bias for the lower timeframe daily chart.
Now, you don’t HAVE to always have a bias. If you don’t know, then you simple don’t know, and there is nothing wrong with that, it would be unreasonable and nonsensical to think otherwise. But, sometimes your bias is wrong, which leads me to the topic of this video.
I believe even for traders who don’t know how to form a technical bias, do so anyway in the form of psychological bias. Most of the time, we think the market is either going up or down, hence why we would even get into a long or short position. The tricky part is being flexible and changing your bias when the market is indicating you are clearly wrong.
Smart Money knows how we think, and they know how to create sentiment in the marketplace. This is why its crucial to be able to change your bias on a dime, WHEN it is applicable, WHEN your analysis is showing you, and NOT for any other reason. The later you are to the party, the less pips you can catch, and the less likely your trades will win.
As humans, we tend to cling to our beliefs. We block out any evidence indicating that we may be wrong about them. And when the market is showing us that we may be wrong, we just tell ourselves “Well now the market is offering me more pips, I have to get in on this move!”, hence one reason how you get long or short squeezes.
- R2F
What does it take to be a SUCCESSFUL TRADER?Hi everyone,
I felt compelled to create this short video on what I think it takes to be a successful trader. I've separated it into 4 factors:
1. Passion
2. Discipline
3. Perseverance
4. Patience
From my experience, these are the core things that you need to keep going until you find successful. Strategies should be the LEAST of your concern. I always say that to be a successful trader, you have to BE that person! You have to transform the person you are now into the person you vision yourself being. If you can do that, you got it baby.
- R2F