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SP500 Weekly Volatility Forecast 26-30 September SP500 Weekly Volatility Forecast 26-30 September Currently our volatility coming from volatility token for SPX is at 4.15%, increasing from 3.41% last week, located on 80th percentile, placing us in a high volatility environment Based on the previous calculations, there is currently a 10% chance that the asset is going to break the channel(the weekly candle it will close above/below) TOP 3831 BOT 3578 At the same time, based on the previous calculations: - There is a 35% chance that the previous high from last week of 3933is going to be touched - There is a 65%chance that the previous low from last week of 3660 is going to be touched We can deduct that we have a much higher probability to have a continuation of bearish candle than bullish. On average the weekly candle when the asset was located around this percentile are 2.51% for bull candles and 2.76% for the bear candles from the opening price. From the fundamental point of view, news that can affect this asset price this week: - Core Durable release, CB Consumer confidence and Powell Speech for Tuesday 27 Sep - Powell Speech for Wednesday 28 Sep - US GDP and Jobless Claims coming on Thursday 29 Sep - Core PCE on Friday 29 Sep Overall I believe for this week there is higher chance due to the overall global activity to have another bearish weekly candle.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by exlux
META day trade and monthly swing idea - jtgladiatorNASDAQ:META META is looking weak at these level. Its setup for a really great monthly swing. Lets watch the price action and see what happens. Here are my levels: For the day traders/weekly player: 170c > 163.05 Confirm hold above this level before taking calls. Grab puts 160p on the rejection of this level. 155p < 159.17 PT is 155.23. If this level holds and there is a bounce, then grab the 160c. For monthly swing play: The swing entry for this is 155.23 with a PT of 137. I am hoping this stays an inside candle for the next two days. be prepared for the reversal to grab calls...but I think this is put city. Let me know what you think in the comments
NASDAQ:META
by ApeManDan
AAPL Put/Short Swing Idea - jtgladiatorNASDAQ:AAPL Hey fam, The AAPL swing idea is pretty straight forward. There was a decent reversal off 176.15 We had the inside candle on thursday followed by the big red candle down on Friday. Looking at the weekly we have a very long wick on the shooter. I am looking for a break below and hold of 171.31 to grab a 170p for 8/26 or 165p for 9/2 or later. The price action is pushing us down. Look for price aggregation to potentially reverse off this level. If it does, grab calls. Calls 175c > 173.74 or puts if it "rejects" Puts 170p or 165p < 171.31 - calls on the reversal My live chart www.tradingview.com
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by ApeManDan
AMD Put Swing Idea 8/22 - jtgladiatorNASDAQ:AMD AMD has got a couple inside candles on the weekly. With Fridays close in the red we have a 22 Reversal AND looking for a revstrat on the weekly to the downside. Could go green but I like it short. Call swing idea: 101c > 99.25 - if price reverses here then grab 95p Put Swing Idea: 94p < 94.59 to swing for 8/26 85p to swing for 9/2 or even 9/16 - buy time. Price can reverse here so grab calls if it does. MY live Chart - www.tradingview.com
NASDAQ:AMDShort
by ApeManDan
Mara SAFER Way DOTM Puts 2 OutcomesThe Trifecta Income play is designed to either generate income or gets the stock assigned to you at a lower cost. YOU SHOULD ONLY USE THIS TECHNIQUE ON STOCKS YOU WANT TO HOLD FOR LONG TERM. Pay attention to the company as you do not want get a stock that is in a declining industry like KODAK when digital cameras came out. We do this by selling a DOTM put, that immediately generates income at the expense of our buying power. In this case, we are selling the: MARA Jan 2023 $5 PUT for a net credit of $1.38/share or $138/contract, and a reduction in buying power of $362 per contract. Assuming that the MARA closes remains above $5 through Jan 2023, our return is: $5 share price / $ 1.38 credit = 27.6% We can do this because the have a target support zone from 4.5 to 5.5 with a target resistance zones of 15. There are two possible outcomes: 1) MARA closes above $5 by expiration in which case we keep the entire credit for a return of 27.6% 2) MARA closes below $5 at expiration in which case we get assigned at $5. Because of the credit our cost basis for the stock is $5 - less the credit received $1.38 for a cost basis of $3.62 which is below our target support zone of $4.5. Net result, we have a safety of margin from the current stock price of $9.78 - $3.62 (assignment cost) of $6.16, which means we have a safer entry at reduced cost using this safer trade structure. Hope it helps Marc
NASDAQ:MARA
by PowerIndicators
3
$SPY - Switching to a Heavy ShortI've been talking about the market rallying upwards in my previous posts since June/July, and finally it's time for me to go short ( heavy ) in this market. :-) We've had strong #DP prints at these high levels that lead me to believe buyers are scaling out of their positions if not completely out. The flows have been consistent over the past couple of weeks with heavy Put flow today. We've been experiencing hard resistance this week, and re-testing it as the #FOMO fueled market drives upwards. At the most, I'm anticipating for a #bullish fake out if we do see more upside movement in the market. Reiterating my belief that we're far from the 2-2.5% #inflation and events like the spending bills passing will only serve to aggravate inflation. I've been keeping my expectations on where I feel the market will likely trend. This time around, I see us making a new low in the next 6-12 months if not sooner this upcoming fall.
AMEX:SPYShort
by theapearmy
SPY LOOKS LIKE A DUMP COMING - BUT WE KNOW SPY LOVES TO LIEAll, Pretty obvious rising area here which usually results in a dump. Personally I would be split here on calls and puts and wait for conformation. I give it 70/30 odds it drops. However, I think we all know SPY/market loves to give an impression and do the unthinkable. A) can we get positive news on war B) can we get sp500 ER / good news on some ones that are down C) positive fed news of any kind / inflation news A combination of TWO of these would probably breakup and cause a parabolic move up if that I think to 440-450. Either way always make sure to cover yourself in areas like this. You can always sell your call options for a 10-20% loss, which will easily get covered by your PUTS. Don't get greedy.
AMEX:SPYShort
by DigitalData
1
$SPY - Where Does It Go with Low Volume?Very low volume today, if there's any day to sit out, it'd be today. This $415 level has been flagged by the chart, and it's not surprise to see choppy trading with a lack of direction at current levels. There are many waiting to short this rally and hence we also are seeing traders emphasize on this bear market rally to stop out early shorts. This move could extend to $420 (and possibly $430). Failure to break this $415 level, and could be trending on our way to $380 ( Fibonacci retracement support). Keep in mind, folks might be waiting for CPI numbers at the end of this week, which is when we might see an increase in volume that'll push us further. My investment strategy to scale on SPY shorts/puts is not something that I expect to realize soon but later within the coming month(s).
AMEX:SPYShort
by theapearmy
1
$AAPL for a Swing Put/ShortOn Friday, we saw $AAPL, $AMD, among other tickers like $MSFT, $NVDA, and $TSLA weigh down on the S&P 500. All of these tickers currently weigh on the bearish side and have affected the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. $AAPL has been retesting the blue S/R level at ~$150 and failing to move above it. Definitely a VERY bearish setup, however, anything can happen and there is potential for it to rip above again via an inverse H&S. Until then, I'm leaning bearish on AAPL and the high probability that the entire market will drag lower too. Keep in mind that we have bearish conviction in the form of OTM flow orders hitting the tape for next month on $SPY.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by theapearmy
PCC - Options Volumes 71% DeclineLiquidity within Leveraged products was used to provide a bid for the Underlying on Gamma/Delta. With the overall decline in participation, we are seeing Micro Range Squeezes develop when it is "Time". Friday's trade was a run to Square, and with the Retail Options players levered up in 420 Spy Calls... there was no chance they would be paid. The PCC remains useful although in a tighter range from .86 to 1.12. Looking over the June 17s - "an Entity is looking for a deep correction of 20%+" maximum-pain.com
P
by HK_L61