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Expected Key Points Amazon 12 May 2022Amazon 12 May 2022 The current implied volatility is at 56.8%/year So that converted into daily is 3.58% The close of yesterday was 2107 So based on that our channel for today is going to be compressed within TOP 2182 BOT 2032 with a probability chance of 80.5% based on the last 3007 candles From fundamental point, today we have PPI and initial jobless claims releases and these mark a huge volatility moment At the same time the current values are expected to be bearish.
NASDAQ:AMZN
by exlux
Weekly Prediction 9-13 May QQQ Iron CondorQQQ 9 - 13 May The weekly VXN-> Volatility Index for S&P 100 index / Nasdaq Implied = 37.4 In this we have to standard it for weekly session 37.4 / sqrt(52-> 52 weeks in a year) = 5.19% My historical product is telling me with 1.5x coficient that the expected movement for this week E Volatility = 38.02 / sqrt(52) = 5.27% With this data, from my calculations, when EV > VIX, there were a 86.6% chance that the market stay within the bottom and top created with the ranged from the E Vol So for next week this range for us is going to be TOP - 325.5 BOT - 293 Lets look into an iron condor oppotunity for trading: 325Call Sell - 328Call Buy 293Put sell - 290 Put buy This is giving us at the current moment a 0.35 expectancy So taking into account from 1109 weekly candles, that 86.6% of the times the market stay within our top/bot channel, Our profit margin would be 86.4% * 0.35 - 13.6%*1 = 16.9ROI after 100 trades
NASDAQ:QQQ
by exlux
Weekly Prediction 9-13 May SPY Iron CondorSPY 9 - 13 May The weekly VIX -> Volatility Index for S&P 500 index VIX = 30.2 In this we have to standard it for weekly session 30.2 / sqrt(52-> 52 weeks in a year) = 4.19% My historical product is telling me with 1.5x coficient that the expected movement for this week E Volatility = 31.3 / sqrt(52) = 4.34% With this data, from my calculations, when EV > VIX, there were a 90% chance that the market stay within the bottom and top created with the ranged from the E Vol So for next week this range for us is going to be TOP - 429 BOT - 394 Lets look into an iron condor oppotunity for trading: 429Call Sell - 432Call Buy 394Put sell - 391 Put buy This is giving us at the current moment a 0.32 expectancy So taking into account from 1166 weekly candles, that 89% of the times the market stay within our top/bot channel, Our profit margin would be 89.4% * 0.32 - 10.6%*1 = 18.6ROI after 100 trades
AMEX:SPY
by exlux
Weekly Prediction 9-13 May SPX/ES Iron CondorSPX 9 - 13 May The weekly VIX -> Volatility Index for S&P 500 index VIX = 30.2 In this we have to standard it for weekly session 30.2 / sqrt(52-> 52 weeks in a year) = 4.19% My historical product is telling me with 1.5x coficient that the expected movement for this week E Volatility = 31.69 / sqrt(52) = 4.39% With this data, from my calculations, when EV > VIX, there were a 89% chance that the market stay within the bottom and top created with the ranged from the E Vol So for next week this range for us is going to be TOP - 4305 BOT - 3942 Lets look into an iron condor oppotunity for trading: 4300Call Sell - 4325Call Buy 3950Put sell - 3925 Put buy This is giving us at the current moment a 0.29 expectancy So taking into account from 1166 weekly candles, that 89% of the times the market stay within our top/bot channel, Our profit margin would be 89% * 0.29 - 11%*1 = 14.81 ROI after 100 trades
SP:SPX
by exlux
PCC - Tom Lee JinxNever underestimate the lunacy of former JPM Alumni Tom Lee. The Cathy Wood of C N B C - Tom simply needs to STFU. In January, Tom was concerned about the Markets after Mid-Year... ________________________________________________ Market Liquidity is evaporating. Volatility is expanding. The Algos have been very careful to press the Sellers on spikes in the Put/Call Ratio for the CBOE. _________________________________________________ Real Estate Ballon Stock Market Bubble Bond Market Beyond So, VX intraday is used to keep everyone offsides and out of the trades with extreme - wide-ranging swings. Use the PCC to your advantage, it has worked quite well. The range has been roughly 105 to 135 recently. Trade safe and good luck.
P
by HK_L61
2
Short and Long Iron Condor SPX 05 May 2022We can estimate with a 84% confidence that the volatility for today is going to be below 1.65% For this the market will stay within TOP 4371 BOT 4230 At the same time We can estimate with a 86% confidence that the volatility for today is going move more than 0.4% based on the last 5658 Daily candles. For this the market will stay above the TOP 4306 BOT 4272 From the fundamental point of view, yesterday we had the release of the interest rates, so I believe currently we are in a short relief moment, where we can have for some days/weeks a small bull trend For today we have no big volatility news, so we cant expect big surprises. From volume point, we can see that the point of concentration is around 4300-4285 Having said that we have 2 different ways of trading for today IRON CONDOR for the first option, with the 4370sell 4400buy Call / 4230sell 4200buy Put Reverse IRON CONDOR for the second option wiht 4305buy 4330sell Call/ 4275buy 4250sell PUT
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux
Eve & Adam Double Bottom confirmation on Costco ($COST)Earlier this month, Costco made confirmation of an Eve & Adam Double Bottom chart pattern as it began seeing daily closes above the mid range between lows. This pattern indicates a fairly high probability (about 88%) of a bullish reversal relative to the sell off which from the recent all-time high (571.49) achieved on December 29th, 2021. Today, the price is within 10 points of the all-time high. I'll be looking over the coming weeks to see what happens next, and for possible positions. From here, I see one of two likely outcomes over the near term: A) COST breaks out above the previous high and likely has a forcible move to the upside, or... B) COST gets rejected from the current levels in the near term and has a pullback to somewhere around $520 In the case of A , I'll be looking to short either with a PUT spread, or potentially straight up long PUTs - which have a greater risk/reward but are enticing considering the macro picture of the broader market/economy as a whole. In the case of B , I'd shop for a long position with some kind of CALL spread. The statistics indicate that track B has about a 2/3 chance of playing out. This could be even more advantageous because it could potentially offer both decent long and short opportunities over the next few months. We'll have to see where the chips fall.
NASDAQ:COSTLong
by InnerMotionTrading
1
SPY PRICE TARGET OF 431 - MARCH 3SPY is currently in a larger, but similar pattern to the one it completed about two weeks ago. It appears like a slanted W, and is caused by short sellers taking profit, but bulls not having enough momentum to create a higher high. Just like the previous (yellow) pattern, price did complete a very slight higher high (0.5% both times) and should now reject. The On Balance Volume indicator is also showing the start of a down trend in volume, another possible sign. I will be looking out for put opportunities tomorrow, March 3rd.
AMEX:SPYShort
by SJ_CAP
8
NVDA PRICE TARGET OF 232 - TOMORROW, MARCH 3NVDA slowly creeped up on Wednesday, March 2nd, with little volume (a sign of weak momentum) and closed the day with an impressive selloff - leaving price below the 15m 9ema. NVDA has two options tomorrow the way I see it. The first and most likely, is price drops to 232 and possibly even tests 226. This is will depend largely on the open tomorrow, and whether or not price stays below the 15m 9ema. This is backed by the the up trend being broken and the On Balance Volume indicator showing a steep decline. The second and least likely, is price continues to creep up, retesting the upper trendline region of 250/252 - although I see it being very difficult for bulls to find the momentum to break through these strong resistances. Of course, these analysis are becoming less reliable as the situation in Ukraine and Russia unfolds and updates.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by SJ_CAP
2
BEARISH on QQQ todayI BOUGHT A PUT OPTION on #QQQ WITH A $349 STRIKE PRICE AND 3/4 EXPIRY...ALREADY IN THE MONEY... HERE'S WHY I ENTERED THE TRADE... #QQQ opened higher than yesterday's market close. However, I believe this is a bull trap. Price is pushing against major trendline resistance and the stochastic indicator on 1HR and 4HR charts reflects QQQ in overbought territory. My theory is that there is way too much bearish news in the marketplace for tech stocks to break resistance and go on a major run. Do you agree or disagree? Let me know in the comments!
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by WealthHunters
Tesla Major Bubble?Tesla has absolutely exploded in value especially since March 2020, which we believe was the beginning of a massive equity bubble. Tesla began trading around $40-80 range for over 6-years. The vehicles they produce now, they produced in 2017. The Tesla Battery and Tesla Solar Roof were all known back then as they are now. Tesla has not announced anything that should put their stock price at over $900. We know why the stock rallied to $1200, and that was solely the Fed. Perhaps most shocking is Tesla's P/E ratio which is now over 100X their earnings. This is extreme, and it screams asset bubble. Not even Toyota which is the worlds largest car manufacturer which produces both electric and gasoline vehicles has a P/E of less than 10. So where do we stand? We see equities going into a bear market. The FOMC of 1-26-2022 confirmed this when the Fed announced they are continuing their plans for tapering, raising rates, and shrinking their balance sheet. This will adversely affect the stock market and bring equities below a 15% correction, into a bear market. Key Factors Buying Volume Weak MACD Turning Bearish P/E Ratio: Extremely Overvalued. Fed Tapering, Raising Rates, and Shrinking Balance Sheet. 50MA is 1/3rd Current Value 100MA is $180 Range With the biggest buying of equities calling it quits and essentially "selling" this is a stock that I would get out of the way, short but do not expect a continued rally.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by WorldEconomics
6
Trade idea on Walmart - WMTJust as an idea: Cash secured put on Walmart, with a strike price of $134 (delta 23) and an expiry of Feb. 18, 2022. Trade would to be closed on Feb. 16, 2022, 1 day before the quarterly results, which will be published on Feb. 17, 2022, before market opening. The $134-$135 area has successfully acted as support four times over 1 year. Whether it will do it another time is of course uncertain! The additional purchase of the cheaper put with strike price 115$ reduces the margin and creates a bull put spread. This trade idea is one of the 222 trade ideas from my book "The Stock Market Year 2022: Which stocks go up and when?" Disclaimer: This trade idea is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities or financial instruments. Investment in securities and financial instruments (especially options) are generally associated with risks, up to total loss of the invested capital and above. I am not a financial advisor. Please do your own research and make your own decisions.
NYSE:WMT
by Optionopedia